The Nationals have expressed interest in free-agent second baseman Brian Dozier, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. They’ve also shown recent interest in free-agent left-hander Wade Miley, Dougherty adds, backing up an earlier report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
Dozier joins the previously reported DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as free agents who have been on the radar of the second base-needy Nationals this winter. However, Dougherty casts doubt on the possibility of Washington reeling in LeMahieu, who figures to receive the richest contract among the three. Regardless, with only Howie Kendrick – who’s coming off a ruptured Achilles – and the light-hitting Wilmer Difo as experienced options at the keystone, the Nationals may well attempt to upgrade there before the 2019 campaign begins.
At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Dozier would head to D.C. on a one-year, $10MM accord. Had he reached free agency a year ago, though, it’s likely Dozier would have landed a much more lucrative payday. Dozier was then coming off a five-year stretch with the Twins in which he racked up 21.7 fWAR (17th among position players) and 145 home runs (13th). Along the way, he authored a pair of the most powerful years in the history of second basemen – the 2016-17 campaigns, during which he combined for 76 homers (including 42, an American League record for his position, in ’16).
Dozier’s stock was certainly high 12 months ago, but it may now be at a nadir relative to the rest of his career. As a member of the Twins and Dodgers last season, Dozier did mash another 21 HRs and steal 12 of 15 bases in 2018, giving him five consecutive campaigns with 20-plus long balls and six straight with double-digit stolen bags. However, across 632 plate appearances, the 31-year-old only managed a .215/.305/.391 line – good for a 90 wRC+, the worst full-season mark of his career – and his lowest ISO (.175) since 2014. Statcast suggests Dozier didn’t deserve better than his offensive production, as his paltry expected weighted on-base average (.288) actually fell short of his real wOBA (.304). Dozier also earned negative marks in the field, with minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. In all, the 2018 version of Dozier was worth less than a win above replacement at FanGraphs.
While Dozier’s on the market at a less-than-ideal time, the opposite may be true of Miley. After settling for a minor league pact with the Brewers last year, the former innings eater rebuilt his stock to a degree by notching a 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP and a 52.8 percent groundball rate over 80 2/3 frames with the World Series contenders. The 32-year-old Miley’s success came in spite of subpar strikeout and walk rates (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball percentage (5.2), which could dampen enthusiasm about his future. Nevertheless, MLBTR estimates he’ll sign for two years and $12MM – a nice guarantee considering where his stock was a year ago.
Whether Miley will get his next contract from the Nationals is questionable at best, of course. They had interest in Miley between trading Tanner Roark to Cincinnati on Dec. 13 and signing Anibal Sanchez on Dec. 20, per Dougherty. While Dougherty doesn’t rule out a Miley signing, the Nats’ rotation may be set with Sanchez slotting in behind the all-world trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and likely in front of either Joe Ross or Erick Fedde.
Adding Miley would definitely make that rotation a force to be reckoned with.
May the force be with you.
Way Smiley is a fierce competitor.
I feel like no matter what the nationals do they’ll always underachieve..I’ll assume its some voodoo curse from the expos fan(s) (:
They play in DC. That’s enough reason.
J/W where they’ll move to when the fans give up on them like both Senator teams.
Nationals are consistently ranked 10th/11th in attendance and are very profitable. They’re in DC to stay. Lots of other franchises that should worry about attendance, but not the Nats.
The expos never should have left. Canada needs more major league teams.
I completely agree!
Was at an expos game when I was a kid , me and my dad literally could sit anywhere we wanted too
I heard Jarry Park was a dump.
I’m not that old but wouldn’t surprise me
It was old and falling apart. But a great place to go see your team play for a cheap price. Got 3rd row behind visitors dugout for 8$ usd. This was in 2002. Mlb network did a great piece on the Expos franchise and how the ‘94 strike really hurt that franchise.
Ahhh yess , I’m a die hard braves fan but grew up about 5 hours from Montreal. Still a lot of expos fans talk about that year.
Jarry Park was Yankee Stadium compared to Sicks Stadium, original home of the Pilots-turned-Brewers.
@MetsMan
In 2002 that wouldn’t have been Jarry Park…it closed in ’70s. You’re talking Olympic Stadium.
Yes! I’ve seen highlights of Jarry Park when Rusty Staub was with the Spos
Fan
The Curse of Bryce-a-Roni.
Love to see Dozier in the middle of that Nationals lineup.
Dozier was upset the Twins didn’t pursue an extension and, having watched him his entire career… he just never seemed as engaged as in the previous seasons.
Brian Dozier is toast. The guy just aged 5 years in 2018.
Dozier was horrible with the Dodgers.
Braves have shown interest in Santa clause
How come nobody mentions Dozier’s knee problems in the latter half of 2018? I don’t know the specifics but it would appear that it had something to do with his dramatic drop off.
I dunno. The knee injury thing reeked of an excuse for lousy play. He said it dated back to April, but he’s not had any surgery on it or anything. Just seems a little fishy
Montreal refused to support the Expos. It’s funny when kids that weren’t even born before the strike pretend to know what baseball was like. Moving the ‘Spos to DC is probably the best decision Bud Selig made.
There should be a 2nd Boston franchise before thinking about another Montreal team. People weren’t supporting the team in 1994, More people support the Rays than the Expos. Look it up.
I hope the Reds sign Miley.
I’d rather see the Nats remaining funds spent on a dominant reliever like Britton or Robertson than either Dozier or Miley.
The Nats ideal candidate at 2B, would be someone that could also backup Rendon at 3B.
I’m guessing Rizzo is done adding to the rotation. Adding depth via minor league contracts with ST invites is more likely. Same thing he did with Hellickson last season.
Yeah, kinda wondering if, assuming they sign Dozier, LeMahieu or whoever, do they keep Difo on the MLB roster (seems like they have to)? If not, who backs up Turner at SS or Rendon at 3B? Don’t need him for 2B with Howie there.
Why is Rizzo not eager to sign Lowrie? Kiebobom was blah at AA v RHP so the notion that he’s next year’s 2B is pretty dubious.