29-year-old Marwin Gonzalez – he’ll be 30 by Opening Day – entered the offseason primed to a secure healthy payday from one of perhaps two dozen interested suitors around the league. Armed with gloves to play six positions, an incredibly goofy nickname christened by superagent Scott Boras, and the whiff of 2017’s 4.0 fWAR breakout still detectable to the sharpest of senses, Gonzalez’s camp has touted the longtime Astro as the right-sized plug to fill almost any hole.
But the market surrounding the Venezuelan-born infielder/outfielder, to this point in the offseason, has been exceedingly quiet – muzzled, even. The Braves, Padres, and Astros have all been connected to Gonzalez at various hot-stove junctures, though none seem particularly aggressive. Other teams, like the oft-linked Brewers and Cubs, or the MLBTR-projected Twins, seem to have no interest at all. Is the tepidity a product of an exorbitant Boras ask, or are teams just not nearly as enamored with “Swiss G” as originally surmised?
Gonzalez, who scuffled through seven minor league seasons before his 2012 debut with the Astros, has turned in a number of solid-to-good offensive seasons in the majors, posting above-league-average marks in four of the last five. His overhauled approach – more walks, fewer balls on the ground – has paid dividends as well, with the aforementioned 2017 breakout (.303/.377/.530) his career high-water mark. While not a multi-positional defensive wizard like Ben Zobrist, Gonzalez has acquitted himself well all across the diamond, and could conceivably be a full-time fit at second base, third, or in the corner outfield.
Still, one can’t exactly use a pen when projecting Gonzalez’s forthcoming production. The best utility men are at least competent at shortstop, and Gonzalez, who’s nearing the age at which range, in both the infield and outfield, declines precipitously, has been dreadful there. The track record, too, is a little light, and Steamer, arguably the standard in baseball’s forecasting industry, projects the utility man to post just 1.3 WAR this season (the number is closer to two when assuming full-time play).
In the free agent freeze of the last two offseasons, it’s the mid-tier player who’s been hurt the worst. Always reluctant to dish out the long term deal, teams now balk at even short-term ones for players whose production can safely be approximated by much cheaper, in-system options. Houston’s Tony Kemp, while probably not an option at shortstop, would seem to fit this bill, as would a number of others on suspected Gonzalez suitors around the league.
Overrated
Marwin is not overrated. He has been a pivotal part of this team. When top players (Altuve, Correa, Springer) have been injured he has stepped in very well defensively. He literally has played every position other than catcher and pitcher, and has played each very well. Not to mention he’s also a switch hitter with pop. He has also been clutch in the postseason. That HR against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the WS was a pivotal play. Plus he’s a good clubhouse guy. The only question is how to calculate his worth. I think he’s a perfect fit for Houston. Somewhere else? That’s probably the holdup as no one knows.
Sucks
Or he would’ve got paid
Right. Bryce and Manny suck too
I’m honestly quite shocked there aren’t 25 teams in on him. Right now, the teams I can think of that have no place for him are just Boston and NY and he’d be a tough fit with the Cubs, Dodgers and probably the Phillies (assuming they sign Harper, otherwise they could use him too).
Overrated or not, his versatility and power make him a rare commodity, even as a utility guy. He’s solid at numerous defensive positions and is capable of filling in almost anywhere on the diamond to give a guy a day off.
This is going to be that signing that happens every off-season where someone gets an absolute steal. He probably signs in the 11-20 mil range on 1 year deal with a player option for a 2nd. I can’t imagine no one will give him 10+ for 1 year.
Padres found a cheaper guy on the dfa list, Greg Garcia
Astros found a cheaper option too unfortunately.
Very.
For a rule 5 guy he has done quite well.
There hasn’t been a rule 5 guy that was picked up and stuck with the same team and played this good in a long time.
One-year pillow contract — Boras special. Prob above QO
2nd biggest disappointment this offseason, after Grandal
2 year deal 15 million.
DJ got 24m over 2 yrs, nearly double your guess over 2.
DJ is one of the best defensive second baseman in baseball, and has a more consistent, albeit average career. Marwin has been average other than 2017. Teams aren’t offering big bucks for a decent year nearing 2 seasons ago.
This is more like it. I was actually thinking 2/12
I thought 2/18 . Of course I’m just an armchair GM
Overplayed his hand.
I say 2/14 or 3/21 deal.
That sounds about right
that math doesn’t make sense, a 3 year should have a lower annual cost than a 2 year
That’s the same price. He didn’t propose a 2/15 and a 3/27 here. He’s guessing it’s a 2 or 3 year deal. Nothing wrong there. I think the 2/14 is too light. If he’s signing for 2 years I think it’s 18-20MM for that.
it is still 2 completely different guesses, players up their years at a discount, s 3/21 is a fast more valuable contract to the player than a 2/14- especially one on the other side of 30
He said “or” it’s just a guess. None of us know. If he would’ve said 2/14 or 3/30 I would’ve had a problem. Think you’re criticizing that one a little too much.
Why would he take a 2 or 3 year deal at that market value? He could find a 1 year, 5 mil deal and bet that he can repeat his performance. Even if he’s just 2018 Marwin Gonzalez, there will be a 2-3 year $7-8 mil annual deal waiting for him next off-season.
If I’m Scott Boras, I’m grabbing a quick 1 year deal and trying to re-establish his 2017 value and re-enter the market next off-season. I’d be shocked to see him sign a multiyear deal unless his market picks up and someone goes crazy and offers 3/$33 or something. There’s no value in doing so. His versatility alone should guarantee he will be paid at that rate for a few years regardless if he re-establishes himself as a dynamic bat.
Boras doing.
I love blaming Boras, but this is the owners and front offices making a statement. Its not just the Harper/Machado contracts that have come down. There’s less and less big deals being given out to average players. Hosmer was an exception, but guys like Moustakas that hit the market, front offices just aren’t spending on. I think we are going to see a larger split in contracts moving forward. You’ll have your $300 mil Bryce Harpers and Stantons, etc. and most of the rest of the league will struggle to secure deals north of $50 mil. Those “above average” players aren’t getting the deals they were a few years ago. Do you think Heyward or Upton or any of those guys would get deals north of $50-$75 mil in this market, even at the point they signed their deals? Believe it or not, its the un or lesser insured middle of the pack contracts that I think that drive the owners craziest these days.
Marwin is just the latest casualty.
I’ve been saying this for a while. With any decent minor league system, you should always have a failed MI prospect that can give you 300-400 quality innings at minimum wage. For the RS, it is Holt, probably followed by Lin. Same with the BP.. You really should have a couple of minimum wage RPs in the back of the BP that are at least competitive.
I agree. A team should be able to churn out at least a couple of minimum wage bench bats, bullpen arms, and one or two back end SP’s on a yearly basis if they want to remain competitive every season. Paying market value for these bottom roster players is a waste of resources.
The Cardinals should just sign him already
I was thinking the same thing. Then just stick him in right field.
He’ll get something like 2/25mm from the one of the teams that loses out on Machado or Harper.
That’s a real disappointing consolation prize. I’m not sure if the teams that are in on Harper and Machado should really be in on Marwin as a backup plan. I’d just as soon wait it out for next season if I were say the white Sox and try for arenado or others.
Yes. I can’t see the White Sox ponying up a multi-year contract to Marwin Gonzalez with a $7-9MM AAV. They already have two much younger versatile switch-hitters on their roster who will command considerably less dollars.
Leury Garcia plays 6 positions including all three in the OF along with SS, 2B and 3B. He won’t come close to Gonzalez offense but can match his defense and is considerably better at his natural SS position with a cannon arm.
Yolmer Sanchez won’t match Gonzalez’ offense either but does provide a stellar glove at 2B along with good defense at SS and 3B. Sanchez would become the White Sox primary backup infielder if they are fortunate in signing Manny Machado in the coming weeks.
The White Sox are also at least one year away from becoming a factor in the AL Central. Gonzalez would be a waste of money on the South Side and is better served playing on a bonafide contender with his next contract.
This guy is a good writer. Wish more MLBTR writers wrote with this kind of style, clarity, and concision.
Nice try, Bradley.
Ha!!
Puts the other writers to shame……
Using the same buzzwords and phrases from a shared stylebook as they try to influence public opinion; noting stats to run down players and teams they don’t like, while noting other stats to trumpet players and teams they do.
Mr. Bradley has a long career ahead of him. Probably will have to get past the 13 year-old mentality found in sports writing and political writing; and the 10 year-old mentality found in writing about TV, movies, and just about every other form of entertainment.
Hopefully he gets past all of that and can reach Samuel’s top notch standards. Be a shame to let such a respected commenter down.
This is MLBTR, not the New York Times. Not sure what you are looking to achieve with your glowing review of a part time blog writer except to let us know that you fanboying over him. If a serious read with some depth is what you are looking for, then you are going to be disappointed on a daily basis here.
Megaj.. Tim’s site here is far better than the NYT and as far as I know? Doesn’t attempt to force any loony agenda on anyone.
Loony agenda? Are you one of those Make America White Again guys?
Comparing the NYT as a beacon….LMFAO…
Have to agree with you johnsilver. You can add the Washington Post, Huffington, and just about every other media outlet out there to that group.
No, he is just stating facts. It doesn’t matter what your political affiliation is, it is quite obvious who is controlling the media these days. It takes a keen eye and a lot of fact checking and common sense to know what is actually happening. You can find it without having to read or hear out of context left or right leaning news.
Is there job creation? Is the economy better? Is unemployment down? Are more American jobs being created? Is border security really an issue? Would a wall help? How big a threat is Iran, N. Korea, China, or Russia? Is the new tax code going to be effective? Are cops really targeting minorities? Are guns the problem or will violent criminals find other ways to harm? Is racism as big a problem as what the media portrays it to be, or do most real people live their lives in harmony with everybody else? The media outlets are the last people you should trust if you want answers to these questions. They are not interested in giving you the whole truth or an unbiased opinion. Whether it NYT, CNN, or FOX news, their goal is to emotionalize their viewers to gather support for their own agenda. Instead go to the source. For example- If you want to know whats happening at the border, ask a border patrol agent or someone who is living on the border that has had to deal with it.
100% agree megaj.
Sadly, continuing this convo further, risks deletion.
I just wanted to add Vox. I consider them “left” Breitbart.
At least Breitbart has comment section. Vox does not. Common theme…
1 year 12 million
Is this annually or total? Confusing.
Total
Same issue as you I chose over 21 just Cuz I think it’ll be like 3 for 21 or close to it!
Cmon bro. By the time you get down to the 21-30MM number on that poll if you don’t know it’s total we have a serious problem. It’s pretty obvious from taking a look at the poll even if you didn’t read a single word in the article.
Was hoping cleaveland would sign him. Maybe he will fall to their price range. Doubt it, but would love to have him
Trash article by Bradley. He doesn’t even know of the offers Marwin has gotten and rejected. Anybody that says he’s overrated hasn’t watched him play everyday.
I thought the Jays would be a smart landing spot for 2 or even 3 years to balance the potential growth of Vlad. Perhaps Toronto’s issue with Boras, admittedly more conflicting through the previous regime, are playing a part in this. The Galvis signing all but precludes it but I am fairly confident Marwin isn’t going to settle for the same price as he did.
Toronto is a couple of years away. I wouldn’t commit to any 2-3 year players. If TO was looking to spend, but not necessarily win, they might be better off using that money to lock in/extend guys like Pillar & Grichuk. The have a lot of talent coming up, but they should have at least some continuity.
.737 OPS. Honestly he doesn’t deserve more than 8 mil per season.
It’s something to hit roughly league average while being a Swiss Army knife playing every position on the diamond. That’s where his value lies. As an everyday player at one position he’s not nearly as appealing. So you have to look at that OPS in a different light but I generally agree with you I wouldn’t go past 9-10 a year on a 2- 3 year pact.
Completely agree on the AAV. 3/24ish. Maybe 2/30 with a vesting option for a third year.
That’s about what Tebow hit at AA last year, time to call him up…
$12mil AAV 2 years. Something like what DJ LMH signed up for
3 at 21 max.
As long as the fans will buy second rate teams, the MLB Owners will keep building 2nd rate teams. Its a race to the bottom instead of a race to the top;
Here’s the obligatory teams won’t spend post on a player who overestimated his market because frankly he’s not that great. Marwin is not great at any one spot. He’s adequate at many spots. He’s had one special season in his career that looks like a big ol outlier. Should teams spend? Yes, they should. I’m all for it but it’s pretty clear it needs to be on shorter deals. If Marwin wants to bet on himself take a one year higher AAV deal and post another 4 WAR year.
I do agree teams need to be incentivized to spend more but it should be shorter deals. Sign these guys to 2-3 year deals at the most but consistently do it. The halos certainly would’ve been better off having that 13 million they owed a guy like cozart or Pujols if we want to look at the top of the market freed up to sign guys this offseason. They could’ve given Marwin his 2/26 or 3/39 if they weren’t bogged down by these crappy underwater salaries. Getting away from that is good for the game. However I agree the funds that were going to these underwater deals need to be reinvested on short term pacts to players.
Everyone wins when you don’t have unproductive past prime players like Pujols eating a quarter of your teams payroll. And can instead can pay your Marwin G’s and Mike Moustakas’ their 10-12 mil over a ST deal. That’s ideally how it should work. Even then you can get bogged down with a bad deal IE cozart but that is much less restrictive when you don’t have a 30MM useless Pujols. Or a 50+MM useless Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes.
One of the problems is people are tired of hearing the name Boras every single offseason. One person whose only claim to fame is that he is the King of the buzzards. Can anyone honestly name more than a couple of “famous” agents” without looking it up? Do we need to know this guy personally? Yeah, it is so cute that the King of the bottom feeders gave this guy a nickname…NOT. The other problem is that although Gonzalez has some skills, he is still a utility man and a hole plugger asking for big bucks.
Boras should stick to what he knows best and leave the nicknames to people 40 years younger than him.
The Brewers have no interest for a good reason, and his name is Keston Hiura. Worst case scenario is that whatever platoon the Brewers employ at 2nd ends up being terrible, AND Hiura stinks it up in AAA, they’ll just grab a rental at the deadline (assuming they’re still in it at that point). I’ve got to think Hiura is your starter at 2B on opening day in 2020, so anything more than a 1-year deal is out of the question. I doubt Marwin’s market falls into the 1-year/$8 million territory, which is probably the most Milwaukee would be willing to spend on him.
No one but Boras and uninformed writers call him Swiss G. Fans and anyone that follows the Astros call him Margo.
If Marwin was worth $18 mill. a season the Astros would have gave him a qualifying offer. But he is a great player and would improve any team. He has more than earned a long term contract. He plays Gold Glove caliber defense at any infield position and plays a solid left field. I’d be fine with the Astros giving him a 5 year $60 mill deal.
5 years is pushing it. I’d give him 2 years guaranteed and club option on the 3rd
Jesus buddy. A 1/18 is a hell of a lot more team friendly than a 5/60. Only you and Boras are hoping for that. He’s going to be fortunate to get half of that sum.
Marwin would fit on literally any team in baseball because of how versatile and clutch he is. As one of his teammates said ( I forget who), “When you have a problem you call Marwin.”
I’ve been wanting the Yankees to sign him all winter, as he’d be perfect with our health question marks. Still could happen I guess, but not as likely now. He will be a good buy for whichever team does have him
30 years old. 3 years of quality left at a high level. For sure can play after that, if he still hits. It depends on what you want to pay for. . . If I’m a team. What are needs. Backup in LF, 1b, 2nd, 3rd, hopefully not short… But in a pinch. Can he play Right. ? You’d have to go at least 10 mil a year. For the Power Potential. I’d say 3/35 Mil is doable at a high end. But if I’m the Giants. I’d go no more than 2/20. . . Maybe get it done…
His main problem in FA is also his biggest strength as a player. His value lies in his ability to play (almost) anywhere on the diamond. But when you’re building a team in the off-season you don’t need a guy to “plug-in” at position X – because you build your team with a guy to play position X. The reason Marwin’s so valuable is when the team he’s on’s Position X gets hurt he steps in… then does it at position Y and Z. But like I said in the off-season when FA contracts are signed… a team doesn’t have holes at XYZ – or if they do… they fill them with a pure Starting caliber player at that specific spot. It’s almost like Marwin Gonzalez should be looked at like purchasing insurance. He’s only got so much value until guys on your roster start getting hurt – then he becomes invaluable filling in at a near-starter’s level until the guys healthy, etc. But as a one-off he just doesn’t beat buys out 1:1
Like for example right now if you have a hole at 3B… Moustakas is probably a better option than Gonzalez (you can argue this point but for the sake of my argument go with it and assume Moustakas represent any average to above average 3B) – so as the GM you sign him. Say you have a hole at 2B well you go out earlier in the off-season and sign LeMahieu, etc. etc. Now if any of those teams already had Margo they wouldn’t need to ‘go out and get xyz’ but then don’t and seeing as 1:1 the other guy’s a better fit he gets left behind. it’s a bizarre catch-22. Once he signs somewhere he’ll no doubt provide ample value to his new team – but on paper trying to quantify signing a guy without a designated position for him to play… makes anything over $5M hard to justify — even if in reality it will pay-off (as insurance often does) down the line!
1yr 5 million
Conventional wisdom would suggest Marwin’s price has dropped the longer he’s a free agent. Many teams can use him. Infield, outfield, wherever. It all depends on the team. Someone might surprise and give him a nice contract but I see too many teams already bowing out of the Marwin discussions due to prior signings and luxury tax situations.
Somebody’s going to pay Swiss G’s his sweet Swiss cheese. I think Minnesota ought to wake up and fork it over.
He’s way overrated. People keep focusing on “wow he can play everywhere” but lots of mediocre hitters with athleticism can do that. He’s just getting the hype for being on a popular WS team. He hasn’t done anything not already done by Sean Rodriguez, Kelly Johnson, etc…
It would be nice to have him on my team but only at utility player prices. Otherwise, just sign a different utility player.
Reflect Sean Rodriguez and Kelly Johnson have never had a day in their life where they were as good as a Marwin.
I’ll give you Rodríguez, but Kelly Johnson was a very good player in the late 00’s. He was just done being effective by his 30th birthday.
You testify against yourself that you are a baseball moron.
Sounds like the Dodgers type of player, maybe that’s a good fit.
If he could play SS adequately he’d be a perfect fit for the Cardinals. But they already have Gyorko who can play 1b, 2b, 3b, and they have plenty of outfielders.
Brewers? old player for stearns when he was in HOU. Would fit in nicely and could play everywhere
Eduardo Escobar taking 3yrs and $21M looks more and more shrewd every day.
I know that teams typically sign yearly contracts, but is it possible to sign a contract till the first of August? Teams typically shell out if they know they are in the playoff run.
Have the people commenting seen his 2017 stats or his second half of 2018 stats? The guy is much more than a “fill in” or “bench player”.
Marwin will still sign for 4 years 40-44 million is my guess.
I want 500 million over 10 years. No offers? Must be an owner’s plot to keep me down. Surely it can’t be my asking price…right?
I actually think he’ll get paid quite well considering the versatility and age. 4 years at 7-8M per year is quite do able when he can slot in at a different position everyday and tally 500PA.
He might be able to wait out someone giving him up to 8-9M per year simply because super utility guys like him have their value but I dont think he’ll get more than 40M.
Comp=Cabrera just signed for 1/$3.5
I hate reading Swiss G. He was literally never called that until a few months ago.
I think Boras is overplaying his hand on all his players. Personally, I think it’s got to be super stressful for them. Sure, they might get a few million more, but piece of mind is worth something.
I love what MarGo has done for the Astros, but I don’t see a spot for him. They could DFA Kemp or Diaz, but I would rather put that money towards a Verlander extension. Would 2/40 secure Verlander?
Swiss G
This is yet another Boras blunder. For every ‘good’ deal he secures for one of his clients, he completely blows it for another two. Perhaps he is looking at MLB stats too much and thinking he’s batting .333 (HOF stats)???
Baseball had put a label on Marwin, and he broke through the label and proved them wrong by going on a HR rampage in early 2017. The rampage got him everyday playing time where he continued to have a great year by leading Houston in RBLs. He was also clutch in the playoffs and WS, hitting the HR that turned the series around against the best closer in the game. Marwin started 2018 terrible, but then caught fire the 2nd half and put up the same numbers as 2017 in the 2nd half. He then was the MVP against Cleveland in the playoffs, while he and Bergman were the only 2 that hit against Boston. Marwin is a complete bargain at around 9-10 million a year, because he will most likely put up 2017 numbers again. Everyone knows that Marwin is a clutch hitter in Houston. If I am a GM I am jumping on Marwin, because if he comes even close to his 2017 numbers, he is a total bargain at 9-10 million per year.
Your some fan, you would have never won the world series without Marwin. And you think you going to be able to say the same thing for Diaz? Your a joke!