The Brewers have reportedly engaged in “pretty serious” negotiations of late with closer Craig Kimbrel, who remains available even after the start of the season. Now, having lost closer Corey Knebel to season-ending Tommy John surgery, a union between the Brewers and Kimbrel looks even more plausible on paper. However, barring a massive drop in asking price, the Brewers aren’t in position to sign Kimbrel or the majors’ other big-ticket free agent, starter Dallas Keuchel, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Both Kimbrel and Keuchel rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer from their previous team at the outset of the offseason. But even if they wind up settling for one-year contracts, odds are those deals will approach or exceed the worth of the qualifying offer. The Brewers, for their part, probably don’t even have half the value of the QO left in their budget, Haudricourt relays, as they’re already sporting a franchise-record Opening Day payroll. As a result, Haudricourt posits they’re more likely to rely on in-house reinforcements such as injured reliever Jeremy Jeffress and on-the-mend starter Jimmy Nelson than splurge on one of the two star free agents sitting on the open market.
More from around the game…
- Astros shortstop Carlos Correa is likely to make his season debut Sunday, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle suggests. Correa suffered a neck strain a week ago, which has left short to the error-prone Aledmys Diaz and elite third baseman Alex Bregman so far this season. Upon his return, the 24-year-old Correa will aim to rebound from a surprisingly pedestrian 2018 campaign, his second straight injury-limited season.
- Athletics catcher Chris Herrmann, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee toward the beginning of March, expects to miss eight to 10 weeks, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The recipient of a $1MM guarantee over the winter, Herrmann had the inside track on a season-opening roster spot before going under the knife. His injury opened the door for minor league signing Nick Hundley to join holdover Josh Phegley as the Athletics’ top two catchers. Hundley and Phegley have gotten off to slow starts in the early going.
- Nationals left-hander Vidal Nuno III decided not to exercise his March 27 opt-out clause, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. Nuno, who did not make the Nats’ season-opening roster, will have another chance to exit his minor league deal June 15 if he’s still with the organization. In the meantime, the 31-year-old is set to begin the season at the Triple-A level, per Dougherty. Nuno spent most of 2018 in Triple-A with the Rays, but he did amass 33 innings in the majors and pitch to a stingy 1.64 ERA (alongside an unspectacular 4.46 FIP and a paltry 28.6 percent groundball rate) with 7.91 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9.
With cubs choke tonight If they don’t get kimbrel they can enjoy 3rd place . Theo philosophy of bullpen doesn’t matter is brutal.
I don’t think you should blame the bullpen when the starter goes 2.2 innings.
No, if we had Kimbrel then that would’ve been Strop out there in the 8th setting up the 9th!! The fact that Maddon doesn’t have people he can trust in the pen is the reason why Q was also out there, even though I think they should’ve put Monty out there.
8th inning up 2? Kintzler, Edwards, strop, morrow, duensing all gone next year. That’s a lot to replace in free agency
Duensing isn’t even on the roster as is, and why is Edwards gone next year?
He’s not gone. He is just listing the bullpen pieces he likes and being reactionary. The cubs should be happy so much turnover is in the pen. They don’t have an elite arm so having the not elite ones not locked up allows them to build perpetually rather than being stuck with a bad contract.
How is cubs bullpen doing today 🙂
The Cubs aren’t spending that kind of money or would have signed Harper. Kimbrel isn’t signed because the signs are there for a steap decline.
What signs? He’s a phenomenal pitcher.
You catch any of last year’s playoffs?
You catch any of last years’ season?
Yes.. as a 50yr RS fan i record and watch every game.. not only was Kimbrel not good in the playoffs he was very inconsistent during the regular sesson as well. As any fan who actually watched all of their games will confirm.
Did you get the express written consent of MLB to record all those games?
Harper is drastically more expensive than Kimbrel
Not in AAV which is what matters to the Cubs
Kimbrel was asking for $100M/6, which is about $16M AAV. Harper was asking for $400M/10, which is about $40M AAV. Even though Harper got less than that, his AAV is still substantially higher than what Kimbrel was asking for at the beginning of the offseason (which he won’t get)
You are incorrect.. he wss asking for $100/5 look it up.. the numbers only came down as his Market evaporated.. by then it was too late most teams had moved on and filled that spot with much more reasonably priced players. It was a catastrophic misjudgment of the market and his value. He would have a hard time reaching $60/4 at this point.
Even in a decline Kimbrel is better than every reliever on the Cubs roster.
I thought the Cubbies were an amazingly superior team. ESPN said you guys have best Management team and Farm System. ESPN said you guys were a dynasty.
dope
Relax adjust your tinfoil hat, and have another plate of pizza pockets Skippy.
Say it with everyone.. it’s just one game…
please say no to Kimbrel, I’d rather have Maples back up than sign him. Cubs have 3 relievers on the IL, try not to overreact 2 games in.
Cubs better sign Keuchel.
What a joke Yu is.
That contract will handcuff the Cubs for years.
White Sox better develop some players or spend 100 million this winter or that stadium will be less than 30% filled again in 2020.
Chisox_fan Davis hasn’t even come back for a full season he could be good
*Darvish
You mean the guy who gave up superstar prospects for a closer has a “bullpen doesn’t matter” philosophy?
The braves need bullpen help asap
Definitely. Especially with the weak rotation m, I could see both a keuchel and kimbrel signing
I’m excited, can’t wait for Kimbrel’s humble pie contract.
Hope it’s an incentive-laden, one-year deal, below QO.
Not happening already said he will sit the year out
Big money in that….
And that worked out well for Leveon Bell. He just needs to come back to reality.
it did work out great for Bell, he never had to play for Pittsburgh again.
then they will lose millions. no one is going to step in next year and give these guys big deals after they sit out. no to mention the 20 million or so they could have had on a 1 year deal
Once the draft rolls around, somebody will be a lot more inclined to pay him, cause they won’t have to give up a draft pick any longer.
I’m sure braves need Dallas and craig
I’d really like the Phillies to jump on Kimbrel and/or Keuchal. I just feel like either would be a good fit on that team
Shut up phillies fans are so obnoxious
That was an obnoxious reply to the least obnoxious post I have ever seen.
Just awful.
Lol… we don’t care!!!
Mariners offense looks good so far. Only thing missing is a closer. Kimbrel would be great to have.
And a little less Dylan Moore
Sign Kimbrel, release Felix, eat the money, call up Shed Long and Justus Sheffield. No chance it happens, but it’s fun to hope.
Poor kid. Feel bad for Moore but 3 straight errors is straight bad.
I’m happy Rumbelow picked him up. Can’t imagine what he’s feeling like, that would’ve been one of the most embarrassing collapses in a long time.
It’s partly my fault, I joked that Martinez should try hitting it to third.
Lol I told my buddy JD will just start pulling everything to Moore. Ya gotta feel for the kid. That was hard to watch.
Vidal Nuno the 3rd (III)? Guess his triplet brothers retired.
You don’t have a grasp of how genealogy works.
Haha. Spat my tea out. Excellent Yak
Not really. It can be a combination of parental and sibling lineage if multiple children are given the same name. See George Foreman.
LMFAO!!!!!
Oh…Christ this made me laugh out of nowhere. Just…not planning on seeing a funny comment in the comments and I literally had to spit my coffee out into the garbage.
Not in AAV which is what matters to the Cubs It’s almost like it’d be his dad and Grandpa or something
What does this have to do with anything
Absolutely nuttin!
Gemology can be a combination of parental and sublings.
Not in AAV which matters to the cubs!
Didn’t you post this to an earlier theard?
Ignorant
I’m not sure I buy anyone would pay Kimbrel $17.9m even on a 1-year deal.
At some point these two are going to have to recognize they severely miscalculated the market, and that it’s not just mean stingy owners. They’re the exact kind of player that doesn’t get the giant contracts because they don’t project well long term.
In general, everyone realizes that the mega deal for guys over 30 have fallen off. Organizations are wise to make these decisions. Boras keeps promoting phoney collusion stories ( sound familiar? ) But owners aren’t running charities and baseball was essentially ruined once mediocre pitchers started being paid big money. At that point it became absurd.
Kimbrel and Kuechel still have significant talent. Had each of the gone into this looking for sizeable three year deals they would be pitching right now.
Be careful… MLB fake news, I mean mlbtr will ban you.
Wow, what a blazing hot take
It’s a free site if u don’t like it u can get off it
No, “phony” collusion stories does not sound familiar.
Keuchel is exactly the type of player who projects well long term because he does not rely on velocity but rather on inducing grounders. Problem is he isn’t that great to begin with. I’m sure plenty of teams would have signed him to a 4/$55m contract or more, but seems like he was looking for double that.
not according to literally everyone else
Scott Boras after meeting with the Orioles this offseason to discuss Chris Davis bouncing back from his horrific 2018 campaign.
“We know he can do it, he’s done it many times for many years,” Boras said. “Obviously we are making great efforts and strides to get it back together.”
In order to move to Playoffville, Scott Boras says, you have to pay the property tax.
Scott Boras on teams cutting payroll: “This is not about an inability to pay, it’s about a choice not to pay.”
Boras at this year’s Winter Meetings “At some point in time, whether it be in a microsecond or a month, we’re going to do something with someone.”
Scott Boras on Dallas Keuchel: “Clubs have focused on players with age/injury to them for shorter deals. Dallas has premiums on him that certainly require length/investment on contract.”
“This is a submarine race, not a regatta,” Boras says. “You do not want other teams knowing you’re interested in a generation [sic] player. No one wants to be known as a loser in this.”
Boras went on to rip other franchises around the league, claiming the Blue Jays had “Blue Flu”, when the Twins play, “only one of[them] shows up”, mentioned that LSU Football has outdrew the Marlins in 2018, and added that the Marlins “put the MIA in Miami”, and that the Mets will be “shopping at Freds” this off-season.
Scott Boras on Keuchel: “Dallas Keuchel is the Tom Glavine, Andy Pettitte of our generation. He is one of the few guys in the postseason that gives you that true big-time performance at the right time, whether it be on the road or at home.”
“He (Dallas Keuchel) knows how to get outs with stress on his body better than anybody in the game. There’s going to be big demand for him for clubs who are interested in winning championships.” – Scott Boras
Boras is pretty good–at writing fiction.
His quotes are borderline standup comic worthy. Can’t help but laugh every time he speaks
The brewers can’t be cheap anymore if they want to be the top of the NL.
That is why they set a franchise record in salary to start the season! I think that would be the opposite of being cheap…but I have been wrong before.
Their payroll is saroynd 125 or so million which isn’t bad but it’s middle of the pack in mlb (16th I think). They will probably need to spend more on pitching and to keep yelich he will probably cost around 30 million a year if he keeps up what he has done over the last year. That’s 25% of their payroll on one player of they keep their current number
And then there is Hader. Right now that beast is worth a ton of money on the market so the brewers better get in on “extensionmania” if they want to keep him longer at a lower rate
Hader is under team control through 2023. No need to rush to sign him beyond that. Yelich is under a team friendly contract through 2022 including a team option year. The Brewers might have the least expensive rotation in baseball. The Brewers have the resources to add Kimbrel to a short term deal of 1-2 years.in the annual range of $15-19 million. They made money hand over fist in 2016 and 2017 when their payroll was tiny but their attendance stayed up. Braun’s deal runs out after next season unless the Brewers opt to accept the mutual option. Signing Kimbrel for more than a year would mean they couldn’t keep Grandal or Moustakas beyond this year, but their number one prospect is poised to take over 2nd base anyway and they don’t figure to have to spend a ton on starting pitching in the next couple years…
Milwaukee’s opening day payroll is already higher than any year-end payroll they’ve ever had. They’ll likely blow past their record payroll by more than $20 M. 16th in payroll when the team is around 25th in revenue. The team is 28th in local TV revenue.
Not every team can spend money stupidly, as the Yankees do.
I don’t think your factoring in the deep playoff run. That was 6 home games at capacity. Around 250,000. I know I paid over hundred dollars for my nose bleed seats. I would imagine it’s safe to say that the Brewers made at least 50 million in profits for that run,and that is on the low end I’m sure. Reality tells me they have the money to pay Kimbrel if they choose to for a year.
It’s not even close to safe to say the Brewers made $50 M in profit.. 60% of ticket revenue for playoff games goes to the Commissioner’s office or to the players. The rest is split between the two teams. So the Brewers got 20% of the ticket sales at Miller Park, Coors Field and Dodger stadium.
So, let’s do the math.
Attendance at the six games in Milwaukee was 263,165, the one in Colorado was 49,658, and the three in LA was 161,059 (according to the box scores). Those figures times the average in-season ticket price times 20% comes out to $2,957,012.87. Most estimates I can find say postseason ticket prices are about three times the regular season (equaling less than $9 M), but we’ll be overly generous and say the Brewers got $10 M in postseason ticket revenue.
The MLB Fan Cost Index says the average fan spends $26 per game on concessions, souvenirs and parking. That works out to $6,842,290 for the six games in Milwaukee. Of course, that’s gross revenue. MLB teams get roughly 35%-45% of that. Again, let’s be overly generous and say the Brewers got $3.5 M, which is over 50%
Add that up and a very generous estimate of what the Brewers got was $13.5 M.
Your numbers are way too low. For one thing my nose bleed seat costed me actually $120 were in season I could have gotten those seats for $20. Then you add in the LA factor and normal ticket prices don’t apply.
And concession, parking, and souvenir sales during the playoffs must be off the charts. Trying to compare in season averages with the playoffs isn’t even close.
I’m sorry but money flows during playoffs and averages don’t apply.
I would love to see the books and actually see how much a team makes during a long playoff run.
If it’s closer to what your estimate is then I’ll give you credit, but my eyes and what common sense tells me is that I’m closer.
You must have bought your tickets on the secondary market. That price doesn’t matter.
I got this from a jsonline story about playoff tickets (the prices are no longer on the Brewers website.). “Tickets for postseason games range from $40-$50 on the terrace level to $135-$235 for premium seating on the field level..” I took a quick look at the prices for single game tickets for this Sunday’s game against the Cubs, Terrace runs from $21-$32, field level from $62-$87. So my estimate of three times the regular season price is actually overstated.
I’ll concede that the non-ticket revenue is probably higher. But even if it’s double, it’s still only another $3.5 M.
I’m just presenting facts. Sorry those facts don’t jibe with how you “feel,” but your feelings are wrong.
Facts are we bought our tickets from the Brewers the day they went on sale for the playoffs. I wasn’t alone and I’ll give you proof. No secondary market. I would imagine the LA market was even a bigger mark up before even Stub hub got a hold of some tickets. Again common sense, and actual experience tells me your numbers are wrong. I actually went to the games spent the money. I didn’t read about it in some paper.
Okay, let’s say the teams charged six times the regular season prices (as you claim to have paid) for tickets instead of the three times I put forth. That would double the $10 M estimate. That would still mean the concession revenue would have to be TEN TIMES what the in-season average is to get to $50 M. Did you buy ten times the number of beers you normally would buy?
I’m sorry that presenting some facts to show what actually happened triggered you so much. It’s not personal. I’m not trying to make you look like less than a man by disputing what you claim. But the fact is, the numbers don’t add up to anything close to what you claim and you aren’t allowed to make up your own alternative facts.
Good analysis, PDX. Numbers don’t have feelings. The cost of signing Kimbrel won’t be recouped in additional revenue. Winning a championship is about more than dollars. But ownership is spending on team.
Agreed. They are going to need to spend with the big boys or trade prospects to fill that bullpen hole. I think smarter money is on using your payroll capital to fill the hole vs using prospect capital.
Since when did Haudricourt become an apologist for the finances of the ball club? He should stick to sports writing. Interesting these rumors have been rampant about the Brewers involved with these players for about two months. I guess those rumor stories sold some newspapers.
The Brewers simply don’t have the depth of quality pitching. Especially after Knebel and Jefress. Jimmy Nelson can’t be counted on for anything after such a long injury. They are hoping to overcome lack of pitching depth with their offense but don’t be surprised when it actually leads to over using Hader. Kimbrel or Kuechel would be a good fit in Milwaukee.
Disagree. Brewers have great pen depth, which is why they can afford to lose Knebel and still be ok. Jeffress will be back in a week. That’s the advantage of having 3 late inning studs. Starters are deep (although unproven) too. While both Kimbrel and Keuchel would be welcome, there is NO reason to overpay for either.
Gather round young lads. When I was a boy arthroscopic surgery on a knee meant career over. Now days I see folks like Herrman’ll be back in a jiffy. Right as rain.
Based on the first three games Brewers are using Hader as their closer
He had 25% of their saves last year.
Keuchel might as well wait till after the draft
not good history of guys missing spring training and then have decent years. it would be crazy for any team to pay these guys qo rate. besides I would not want a guy like that on my team. they had offers. they clearly only play for the money. not the kind of guy that shows up early to get work and not a team player
Once the draft is over, both Kimbrell n Kuechel will find homes for the rest of the season at least. Teams will be more inclined to pay them once they don’t have to give up that draft pick compensation. It’ll be almost like making a mid season trade without having to give up anything.
That first paragraph is super dense. This borders on a run-on sentence:
“However, barring a massive drop in asking price, the Brewers aren’t in position to sign Kimbrel or the majors’ other big-ticket free agent, starter Dallas Keuchel, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.”
So does this:
“The Brewers, for their part, probably don’t even have half the value of the QO left in their budget, Haudricourt relays, as they’re already sporting a franchise-record Opening Day payroll.”
You probably don’t need to cite Haudricourt every sentence. Most MLBTR posts state the writer at the start of the paragraph/bullet point. You can also cut down on the verbosity by starting sentences with clauses like “for their part” rather than the subject (the Brewers, in that case). Makes for more straightforward sentences—otherwise it looks like you’re almost contradicting yourself. Saves a comma too.
“Both Kimbrel and Keuchel rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer from their previous team at the outset of the offseason. But even if they wind up settling for one-year contracts, odds are those deals will approach or exceed the worth of the qualifying offer. The Brewers, for their part, probably don’t even have half the value of the QO left in their budget,”
The sentence previous to the one you reference refers to Kimbrel and Keuchel as “they.” To start the next sentence with “for their part” without including “the Brewers” would make the “their” in it mean Kimbrel and Keuchel, not the team. The subject of the sentence has changed from the previous one.
You might think you’re the grammar police, but you’re just the grammar mall cop.