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The Market Situation For Dallas Keuchel

By Jeff Todd | March 27, 2019 at 11:09am CDT

Precisely why Dallas Keuchel remains unemployed isn’t entirely known or even knowable. Perhaps he squandered early market opportunities with too high an asking price. It may be that he’s still holding out unrealistic demands. On the other side, clubs are arguably far too willing to roll the dice on fresh young arms. Perhaps they’re too determined to maintain mid-season and future financial flexibility at the expense of immediate, season-long improvements.

[RELATED: Historical Market Price Points For Dallas Keuchel]

The market has been quiet. Last we heard any news on Keuchel, agent Scott Boras said that the accomplished hurler was building up arm strength just as he would have in a team’s camp. While the market situation remains extremely foggy, Boras added that offers were still coming in. Keuchel still isn’t willing to take a “pillow contract,” Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets today, so it seems he’s still holding out hope for a multi-year arrangement of some kind. He could follow the Kendrys Morales approach of waiting until the June draft to sign, thus shedding the requirement that a signing team surrender draft compensation, but that’s hardly the preferred means of procuring a desirable, long-term deal.

The real question remains: what teams are really motivated to go after Keuchel? We’ve looked previously at the market setting for the other unsigned hurler of note, Craig Kimbrel. Now we’ll do so with respect to Keuchel, taking a somewhat different angle of approach. While both are entering age-31 seasons in search of big money, with potential luxury tax ramifications for the signing team, their different pitching roles make for different market circumstances.

Rather than trying to create labels or categories, we’ll just run through the possibilities in narrative form. Here’s how the market breaks down …

It’s rarely wise to rule out teams entirely, but some teams lack the outlook and resources to be worthy of further consideration. The Orioles and Marlins can safely be scratched off the list of possibilities. It’d be nothing short of shocking to see the Royals make such a move when the club is already pushing high-priced starters into the bullpen. While the Giants and Rangers have much greater spending capacity, they’ve already got staffs full of veterans that include some significant financial commitments. The Tigers also seem to have already placed their bets for the coming season.

Neither is it really possible to envision a path for certain teams that have real hopes of winning seasons in 2019. The Indians and Pirates are low-budget contenders that don’t have the need to spend in the rotation; the Cubs and Red Sox are big-budget contenders that have full starting units and have probably already committed their 2019 payroll.

It’s not much easier to see a variety of other contending teams as Keuchel pursuers, though as we go down the line it becomes somewhat easier to imagine a move. The Boras connection to the Nationals means you can never say never, but the organization wants to stay below the luxury line and already has promised rotation spots to give hurlers. While some injuries arguably create an opening for the Dodgers, they still have ample options on hand and it’s tough to imagine them shoe-horning yet another pitcher onto their 40-man.  Similarly, the Yankees have options — a trio of young arms holding down the fort with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Gio Gonzalez waiting in the wings — but could still stand to stamp out some uncertainty. In years past, one or more of these clubs might have shrugged and thrown a stack of cash at Keuchel. It doesn’t feel very likely in this climate, particularly with the luxury tax implications for all of these clubs.

Several lesser-spending teams arguably make more sense on paper, but still feel unlikely. The Rockies, Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers could upgrade a rotation spot and boost their depth by adding Keuchel, but all likely feel it wouldn’t be enough of an improvement to warrant the cost with other, more pressing areas of need on their rosters.

Perhaps there’s a bit more cause for a pair of other National League clubs to consider a bold move. Like the above-mentioned teams, the value of a win is quite high given the densely packed divisions. But there’s a stronger case for Keuchel in particular for the Mets and Phillies. Both organizations have already already spent big on veterans. The former could bite the bullet and knock Jason Vargas out of the rotation. The latter could plug the higher-floor Keuchel into the starting unit while deploying Vince Velasquez as a potentially fascinating multi-inning reliever.

There’s at least an argument to be made for some other teams to take a look at the right price, even if the move would largely be future-oriented. Several American League clubs are lining up for a 2020 push — and surely also realize there’s at least some opening to surprise in the current year. At the right price point, Keuchel could be a value on a multi-year deal. The Mariners are always tinkering. The White Sox missed on their biggest targets. The Blue Jays added a few low-cost veterans but have tons of rotation uncertainty now and in the future. And on the NL side, the Diamondbacks are attempting to stay competitive while undergoing some roster changes.

Here’s about where things start to get interesting. The Rays already spent on Charlie Morton, but could consider Keuchel on much the same theory if the deal is short enough in length. While the Twins picked up Martin Perez to fill out their rotation, and have some younger depth pieces as well, the teams still has only meager future commitments and a big opportunity in the division.Neither of these teams really wants to spend on Keuchel past the present season, but there’s an argument that both should strongly consider making an exception.

Hopping over to the AL West, there are three clubs that make some degree of sense. The incumbent Astros know Keuchel better than anyone. They have kept in touch all winter long and remain an obvious fall-back spot, though it doesn’t seem they’ll move up their offer with so many internal options still available. The Angels and Athletics have ample need in the rotation. The public indications are that they’re fresh out of spending availability, but both organizations could justify stretching for Keuchel at this time.

Perhaps no teams in baseball make greater sense, though, than the Padres and Braves. It’s already an eye-popping offseason in San Diego, with Manny Machado coming aboard and top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack making the Opening Roster, but the club’s rotation is still loaded with uncertainty. The Atlanta organization is defending a division title against three strong adversaries, has made it clear it has financial resources available now and in the future, and has seen several notable health questions arise in camp.

It’s hard to call any team in baseball an obvious favorite at this point. An injury could change the field quite a bit, though it’s anyone’s guess whether and when that might occur and Keuchel’s appeal as an immediate option will not exactly grow as he sits on the sidelines. It’s a tough spot for the veteran.

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Dallas Keuchel MLBTR Originals

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Comments

  1. Freddie Morales

    2 years ago

    Perfect situation for Keuchel and Kimbrell in SD. Good D, young team, payroll flexibility to add. needs at top of rotation and back of pen

    4 Like
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    • hockeyjohn

      2 years ago

      Kuechel is more a 3 at this time than a top of a rotation guy. That is why he is still available. He wants top money, yet is not still a top of rotation pitcher.

      8 Like
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      • towinagain

        2 years ago

        True but the Pads can live with that. He just needs to be good not even great. This team needs veteran stability in its rotation, like a,focal point so to speak to take the pressure off the rest of the staff.

        3 Like
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      • Coach Him

        2 years ago

        Exactly right. If he wanted just a 2 or 3 year deal with an option, clubs, especially contenders would pounce and probably over pay a little.

        Like
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    • dimitrios in la

      2 years ago

      Way too much money for them to put forward. They’ve already spent a ton. The last thing they need is another overpriced underperformer.

      Like
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      • jbigz12

        2 years ago

        They only have 93 MM on the payroll. They could splurge for Keuchel or Kimbrel on a short term deal. I don’t think this team is close enough for that to move the needle but it’s not out the realm of possibilities.

        Like
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        • hockeyjohn

          2 years ago

          Kuechel and Kimbrel are both not looking for a short term deal. If they were, several teams would have already signed them. They both want long term deals which, to date, no one has been willing to give them. That is why they are still unsigned.

          5 Like
          Reply
        • phenomenalajs

          2 years ago

          That and the QOs. I think something needs to be done about the QOs. The window to accept is way too short. I think it should be open all the way to the start of Spring Training then the offer drops to half. At the start of the season, it should drop to the major league minimum, but it’s still a guaranteed roster spot. By the June draft, it’s gone. As long as the team stands to gain a draft pick, it should commit a roster spot to the player it deemed worthy of the QO.

          Like
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        • Koamalu

          2 years ago

          With 2 pitchers slated to be openers that go only 3 innings to start the season both Kimbrel and Kuechel make sense on short term deals.

          Like
          Reply
  2. Jesus Christ 2.Oh

    2 years ago

    Dallas reminds me of an aging Barry Zito within the incredible hair.

    1 Like
    Reply
    • jjd002

      2 years ago

      Makes up for not having Zito’s hair by having a great beard.

      1 Like
      Reply
      • chesteraarthur

        2 years ago

        Compensates maybe, makes up for, not so much. Those Zito locks gave Hamels’ a run for his money

        2 Like
        Reply
  3. Ully

    2 years ago

    This might sound crazy, but waiting till June might be a bad thing for a pitcher. He essentially is saving wear and tear on his arm and we have seen plenty of pitchers come in mid season and dominate, either out of retirement or rehabbing an injury. Not the same case for a hitter that is trying to get timing down.

    Like
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    • Ully

      2 years ago

      I meant to say “not a bad thing” instead of “bad thing”

      1 Like
      Reply
    • pt57

      2 years ago

      Yep, and if a contender has injuries, a spot might open up gor him. Or maybe a surprise contender decides to splurge.

      2 Like
      Reply
  4. Magnum

    2 years ago

    Keuchel on a 3 year deal makes sense, but Kimbrel is not necessary for the Padres unless it is a very team friendly short-term contract.

    2 Like
    Reply
  5. arc89

    2 years ago

    this is what you call a agent over played the hand he was dealt. He had offers but wanted way much more than he was worth. His age and how many arm injuries have occurred lately nobody is giving a pitcher a long term deal over 4 years.

    2 Like
    Reply
    • Cam

      2 years ago

      Who is he? You talk about the Agent and the Player as if they are the same person.

      Like
      Reply
    • petrie000

      2 years ago

      The difference between asking for 5 and settling for 3 and asking for 3 is that the former gives you a chance of getting what you want.

      And you give Keuchel too little credit for brains. His agent isn’t telling him what to do.

      Like
      Reply
  6. stubby66

    2 years ago

    Wouldnt mind seeing the Brewers make a trade with San Diego for one of there outfielders even Myers for Davies or Anderson( which would be a good swap).

    Like
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    • dtrainriotmaker

      2 years ago

      The brewers already have outfielders , why would they trade starting pitchers for a position they don’t need ?

      2 Like
      Reply
      • stubby66

        2 years ago

        Because Braun isnt going to be a regular and if anything happens to Gamel for extended amount of time who plays ? Thames or Perez? They weren’t able to do that last year and the guys on 40 man roster are kinda weak

        Like
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      • hk27

        2 years ago

        Especially since when Brewers are a bit short on pitching themselves (they have the numbers, but also carry various question marks.)

        1 Like
        Reply
        • stubby66

          2 years ago

          ok but you trade a flyball pitcher in Anderson to a pitchers ballpark . I like him but I dont think he fits in Milwaukee. The Brewers do have enough quality starters with Nelson, Brown, Houser, Guerra, and Wilkerson that can step in and start.

          Like
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  7. jjd002

    2 years ago

    He’ll get a deal as soon as a decent (1-3) pitcher goes down for the season

    1 Like
    Reply
  8. bobtillman

    2 years ago

    It’s hard to think of a team that Dallas doesn’t make better, and might even put some teams on the cusp of serious contention. It’ll be interesting to see his terms, and those of Kimbrell.

    Like
    Reply
  9. seth3120

    2 years ago

    I like the Braves to walk away with at least one of these guys

    Like
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    • Braveslifer

      2 years ago

      Too many arms coming for the Braves to tie up two or three years on either of these two. I trust this will be a mediocre year, but next year, look out, here come the Braves.

      1 Like
      Reply
      • Mack83

        2 years ago

        I don’t think this will be a mediocre year. Not in the least. I’d say 2nd place, NL East. Worst, 3rd. But Atlanta is going to score some runs, and defense is there.

        DK on a 1 year deal, maybe. Nothing more than one. Nothing more than $15m either.

        1 Like
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        • AtlSoxFan

          2 years ago

          But is a 1 year deal, at high AAV, with a guy who hasn’t competed against talented live hitters at all, who needs a ramp-up period, and least of all who has no trust/working relationship built with the catching staff, really worth giving up the draft pick for a team like the braves who can’t go sign international talent either?

          Then take into account age, regression, the entire warts-and-all for a low-power aging pitcher who depends on impeccable control to get outs (where advanced metrics show its reasonable to have cause for concern, and his FIP shows he earned every bit of that spiking ERA from ’18)

          Best case scenario you get 4 or 5 months out of a guy you can’t even get compensation for after when he leaves.

          No, please stand pat on this guy atlanta. Kimbrel I’m ok with a flyer if the price is right.

          1 Like
          Reply
        • lacjrjd

          2 years ago

          You acquired McCann, who has caught him the last two seasons in Houston. I’m actually a bit surprised that little fact wasn’t mentioned in the article. So, you could argue that Atlanta is an even better fit than almost any other team right now.

          2 Like
          Reply
        • SalaryCapMyth

          2 years ago

          Well, the article DID mention that the Braves and Padres were the two best fits. But you are right in that they didnt mention McCann catching Keuchel.

          In any event, I would be hesitant to bring on last years league leader in hits allowed.

          Also, I have to wonder how much better is Keuchel than Teheran in this stage in Keuchels career?

          Like
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    • jkurk_22

      2 years ago

      I’ve been pleading for both all off-season. I know we have a bunch of great young arms, and I’m confident a few of them will turn out. But I want to win now and often and having half or more of the rotation be guys that are inconsistent to start with cause they’re young, doesn’t feel like it’ll get it done given the upgrades in the division. That being said, I think we need Kimbrel more. I think the back end will come around once ODay and Minter are healthy, but the depth of adding a for sure thing in Kimi would be astounding, and help with the uncertainty surrounding the young guys in the rotation

      Like
      Reply
  10. JDGoat

    2 years ago

    Get him SD

    3 Like
    Reply
  11. bowserhound

    2 years ago

    He wants Trout money and he ain’t gonna get it.

    3 Like
    Reply
    • PhilsPhan

      2 years ago

      Huh?

      1 Like
      Reply
    • SalaryCapMyth

      2 years ago

      I think you are overstating things by just a few hundred million.

      Like
      Reply
  12. stymeedone

    2 years ago

    what we need to know is what the asking price is and what the offers are. Does he have a geographic preference? That would give better perspective as to what the likely landing spots would be.
    If Atlanta spends on Keuchel this year, does that mean they won’t have the flexibility to fill a hole next year? Its not like fans in Atlanta have a history of showing up during the regular season, even when winning. Would they want the addition of Keuchel to prevent moves later?

    Like
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    • AtlSoxFan

      2 years ago

      That’s not fair.

      Last year the braves averaged 31,553 per game. That was the 11th highest in baseball.

      The Ted had 50,000 seats. Even Sun Trust is about 42,000. So, yea, when you have a giant park capacity it DOES look like a lot fewer people around when 20, 30% is empty on a given night. But if that was fenway youre nearly sold out on average and nobody accuses the Red Sox of having fans that just don’t support the team.

      Coincidentally, Atlanta had the highest average attendance in the NL East as well, which throws a wrench in the idea of out-of-towners driving up the numbers

      1 Like
      Reply
  13. raysfaninboston

    2 years ago

    I know the Rays won’t spend the money needed to get him, but it sure would be nice if they did. A 1-2-3 of Snell/Dallas/Morton would be pretty formidable and help make up for a lot of the offensive questions the Rays have.

    1 Like
    Reply
    • HaloHonk4Life

      2 years ago

      They will spend money when
      A Fans start showing up
      B They move to Vegas

      1 Like
      Reply
      • fljay73

        2 years ago

        ??
        Rays prefer to lock in as many of their younger players as possible.

        St. Pete has not supported the Rays very well (when it comes to walk ups. Over half of their season ticket holders live outside of St. Pete me included).

        1 Like
        Reply
      • Koamalu

        2 years ago

        B When they move to Tampa. Bad stadium in hard to get to location in St Pete = no fans showing up.

        1 Like
        Reply
  14. darkstar61

    2 years ago

    It is certainly a case of the asking price greatly exceeding teams willingness. There were major red flags last season.

    From fangraphs
    “…he took steps back in notable areas that should bring concern in 2019 and beyond. A successful Keuchel sits at the bottom edge of the zone with his sinker, changeup, and slider, toying with batters and baiting them to swing as pitches often tumble just at the last moment. However, Keuchel struggled to find this rhythm last year, showcasing a dip in O-Swing that forced him to throw pitches in the zone at a 42.5% mark. It led to his highest allowed contact rate since his rookie season and a thirteen point drop in groundball rate. His slider was the biggest detriment, dropping massively in chases off the plate and swings-and-misses while raising its BAA nearly one hundred points, and without that breaker, Keuchel doesn’t have enough in his changeup and sinker to hint at the ace of old.”

    The Astros are known to be on the cutting edge with pitching tech, and even they weren’t able to hide his ineffectiveness very well.

    He priced himself out of the market, and because of that has become a bargain. But it’s still buyer beware, and if the team giving him a shot is not a strong advanced metric club, he might be a disaster waiting to happen (think James Shields leaving TB/KC)

    1 Like
    Reply
    • phenomenalajs

      2 years ago

      That’s a name I haven’t heard in a while who should sign somewhere – James Shields. He’s not a star anymore, but I find it hard to believe that no one will offer him at least $1M-$2M.

      Like
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    • CoachDan

      2 years ago

      You nailed it… He’s not trended the right way since his Cy Young year yet has priced himself like he’s coming off that CY year. I’d be afraid of a multi year deal for him

      Like
      Reply
  15. dmarcus15

    2 years ago

    Teams are looking at his matrix number primarily his velocity and ground ball %. He isn’t a Kershaw (which few are). Dallas need to get a nice not over the top contract that will pick him up for 3 years maybe a optional 4th.

    Like
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    • Cam

      2 years ago

      Teams are well past that these days – they’ll be looking at much more than just velo and GB%. Keuchel has a number of red flags.

      Like
      Reply
  16. towinagain

    2 years ago

    Keuchel fits perfectly with the Padres. The staff lacks a quality, upper end, veteran leader. A majority of the Pads rotation consists of young lefties who would benefit from being around a lefty of his acumen and experience. He has been training up the 5 about an hour and a half from SD so is familiar with the area and the transition could be an easier one. He could essentially serve as the Machado of the rotation for a crop of good young arms that may excel under his leadership. I see him being the bridge as far as veteran leadership for this rotation. Also he doesn’t cost any pieces that a trade would, only a pick who is a mystery not an established prospect like Gore. Makes sense all around.

    1 Like
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    • jb19

      2 years ago

      I agree. If the Padres want to contend now, adding a pitcher like Kuechel makes a lot of sense. At this point, I can see a 3 year, $60MM guarantee, with a 4th year vesting option, but my guess is that Kuechel has already turned down those types of offers. Which is why he’s still unemployed. I’ve read Kuechel wants to be in California as well, but imo, he’s just holding out for a higher AAV and more years. And that’s just not going to happen imo. Even w an injury to a SP on a contending club.

      2 Like
      Reply
      • Padres2019ha

        2 years ago

        20 mil a year? For 3 years?! Ha, nah

        3 Like
        Reply
        • AtlSoxFan

          2 years ago

          Maybe, MAYBE, 3/45 with some type of performance escalator on the HIGH side. Realistically 3/40 with a vesting 10m 4th year option would be fair for such a late signer who cost his team value on this year’s contract by starting late.

          3 Like
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        • jb19

          2 years ago

          He’s averaged 3.4 WAR over the last 2 years (doesn’t include his Cy Young year of 6.7 or injury stricken 2016 WAR of .6), is only 31 and still has good GB stats. $20MM AAV to age 34 will work out well. Not sure why all a sudden Kuechel, 2 time all star and 4 time gold Glover btw, is considered not worthy of top 20 SP money.

          2 Like
          Reply
        • AtlSoxFan

          2 years ago

          Uhh… Simply because he is NOT a top 20 pitcher?

          Led the league in hits, metrics show him likely to head downhill, his actual era and FIP are in the upper 3s both getting closer to 4.00… the guy is a #3 best case scenario, likely a #5 very soon. No power/velocy, depends on impeccable command and defense behind him to get any decent results, and metrics say he’s trending the wrong way for that to continue being effective

          Like
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  17. Yeti

    2 years ago

    Aging pitcher, 88-90 mph fastball and a declining K-rate. He will get paid at some point but it isn’t all that surprising that he is still available. The Braves are listed as a best fit, but to be honest they have a half dozen young pitchers that cost nothing, have a much higher ceiling, and will probably end up producing right around what Keuchel produces. Why blow so much capital to barely, if at all, improve the team? I don’t understand the clamoring for a deal with negligible upside and significant downside. The best case scenario is basically to add 0.5 net WAR to the team this year and to hope to be able to trade him in the offseason. He would become a progress stopper for better, younger pitchers as soon as next year.

    2 Like
    Reply
  18. GarryHarris

    2 years ago

    “Boris added that offers are still coming in.” If this is true, Dallas Keuchel and Scott Boris are just being greedy. Keuchel isn’t really that good anymore.

    Like
    Reply
    • kennonr

      2 years ago

      He never was that good tbh. Houston just did well to make him look good.

      1 Like
      Reply
      • Koamalu

        2 years ago

        @kennonr Cy Young winning pitchers stink. All of them. None of them are very good.

        Like
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        • AtlSoxFan

          2 years ago

          Aside from that anomaly Career year with the cy young, 4 seasons ago btw, where he benefitted from the defense behind him and had his real era been his FIP, HE NEVER WOULD HAVE WON, sure leaving that aside…

          Well, no, I wouldn’t describe Keuchel as ever being “very good. Simply good to average for the most part. But he pictures himself as being 1 or 2 tiers above his actual age/abilities in the marketplace. And that’s the problem.

          Like
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        • Nook

          2 years ago

          If you think Dallas K was never “very good”, then you don’t know what you are talking about.

          Like
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    • Koamalu

      2 years ago

      If you are quoting someone, at least spell correctly or just cut and paste.

      Like
      Reply
  19. formerdraftpick

    2 years ago

    The New York teams aren’t going to take him because of the rivalry between Dallas and the Giants. ;)

    2 Like
    Reply
    • Al Jab

      2 years ago

      I hope that was sarcasm

      1 Like
      Reply
      • formerdraftpick

        2 years ago

        Lol. Hence the wink.

        Like
        Reply
  20. ExileInLA

    2 years ago

    Kyle Hendricks deal is a ceiling for Keuchel, IMO…

    Like
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  21. sethesq

    2 years ago

    No team will say it but the only “issue” with Keuchel can be summed up in two words: Scott Boras

    5 Like
    Reply
  22. danumd87

    2 years ago

    The reality for Keuchel is that he’s not a sexy SP, with below average stuff and a declining K rate that likely has teams worried about potential immediate regression and disinclined to give a long term pact and certainly not at the dollars he was looking for initially. While it is an agent’s job to fight for their client and start with a lofty asking price, here it seems Boras went too high and didn’t manage his client well. It’s his job to manage his client’s expectations and to get them in line with reality.

    Keuchel came into the offseason looking for 5 years and 100 million. I think his problem is that given the pitcher he is, a guy over 30 with already declining stuff who never possessed an exciting arm to begin with, no team was interested in those years even at a significantly decreased AAV. Teams probably weren’t willing to give him 5 and 75 and that caused an impasse that has proven difficult to overcome, especially after teams have spent most of their allotted FA capital.

    Ultimately, I think he’s going to be looking at a 2 year pact with this first year having to be performance incentive based bc he’s going to miss time and maybe an option with a big buyout. But he’s not getting that long pact

    Like
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  23. Bill Smith

    2 years ago

    Seems like Scott & Dallas are firm with their contract parameters and are comfortable not playing professional baseball unless they are met. All the MLB teams have their rosters set and they appear to be comfortable as well. Happy medium, no problem here.

    1 Like
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  24. the guru

    2 years ago

    really sad how kimbrel has better stats than mo rivera at the same age had and he still can’t get a good deal. Really sad how Chapman doesnt have the same stats as kimbrel either, kimbrel is even younger than chapman yet chapman gets a monster deal and kimbrel can’t get anything close to it. SAD players will go on strike soon.

    1 Like
    Reply
    • JaysForDays

      2 years ago

      No one likes gingers…

      Like
      Reply
  25. Illusionist

    2 years ago

    Dallas is a good pitcher but not worth the 20 mil or so that he’s been rumored to be asking. I’m glad teams having been holding off then. I get how sometimes it feels like teams offer very little in a contract as they might purposely wait till the last minute ( like Adam jones, roughly .280 hitter with about 25+- hrs each year, who signed for I belive about 1 mil, no less than 5), but clearly his not the case with Keuchel, as I’m sure he can still get a fair amount of money each year ranging from 10-15 mi. In this case, good for teams not giving in to players like these.

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  26. AaronSapoznik

    2 years ago

    Dallas Keuchel would be a perfect match with the White Sox on a reasonable 3 year guaranteed contract with another vesting option or two provided they sign him after the conclusion of this year’s June Rule 4 Draft when the compensation required of him due to his qualifying offer disappears.

    Keuchel would provide an additional veteran southpaw along with Carlos Rodon to a future rotation that figures to be chock full of right-handed power arms including expected TOR pitchers in Michael Kopeck and Dylan Cease.

    Keuchel could provide the staff leadership that James Shields had offered last season with far more pitching upside. Keuchel would be the antithesis of the other starters, one who relies on guile, command, ground balls and soft contact. He is also a proven winner with a World Series ring who can successfully pitch in a hitter-friendly home park. He is also a Gold Glove fielder at his position. In other words, he could be the White Sox next Mark Buehrle who was also quite the fan favorite on the South Side.

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    • Illusionist

      2 years ago

      Yeah that would be cool, but i’d offer him 15 mil per year not 20.

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  27. Illusionist

    2 years ago

    And no its not just bad for players, but teams too. Are you kidding me u want about 20 mil for a frk closer? Way out of line, buddy. If that’s the case, i’d rather sign a 25-30 mil for a top starter or even give 20 mil to Keuchel because SP is one the main positions that tends to mold game outcomes. You don’t really get into save opportunities without having good SP in the first place. To put this in perspective Kris Davis, last years hr isn’t even asking for 20 mil per year for a contract extension and yet you want me to pay Kimbrel about 20 mil? Cory Kluber, one of the top pitchers in the game, most he is getting in his contract is around 18 million base salary and Kimberl as a closer wants 20 mil? Pfft.

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  28. pinballwizard1969

    2 years ago

    Not sure that in today’s FA atmosphere that there is a significant market for Keuchel even if he waits a few months for the drafty picks to come off his signing. Teams just just seem to be going for the “older”, “expensive” FA’s any longer. I really can’t see him getting more than a 2 yr/$40M ($20M AAV) deal at most.

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  29. mike156

    2 years ago

    Since we really don’t know what the current Boras ask is, I’m not sure it’s fair to judge Keuchel’s approach is. I don’t take pleasure in seeing a quality talent (which he is) sitting on the sidelines when he clearly can contribute just so we can enjoy his agent having egg on his face. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be pitching, and if he made a bargaining mistake, so be it, it’s going to be reflected in his ultimate offer. But this guy belongs on the mound–he would make any staff better.

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  30. angelsfan4life412

    2 years ago

    Phillies
    3 years for 60 with a 4th year option

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    • jayfaraday

      2 years ago

      Too much money

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      • angelsfan4life412

        2 years ago

        Whats your best offer for him , 2 years for 30 with a 3rd & 4th option.

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        • mike156

          2 years ago

          It makes no sense for him to tie up as many as four years at a rate of $15 AAV. with only two guaranteed.

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  31. omahaomaha

    2 years ago

    Would a one year 20 mil do it for Dallas K? Regroup for next year? Borass would probably say nope

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    • AtlSoxFan

      2 years ago

      I’d guess he’s not confident enough in his abilities to bet on himself in that manner.

      The guy is clinging for dear life to an outlier cy young that’s already 4 yeas out of date that he won on the backs of his infield (that CAREER year was the only time his FIP dipped below 3.xx, and by the barest razor thin margin at that.)

      No, he’s on the down spiral of his career and I’d guess he knows it.

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      • hzt502

        2 years ago

        Are you seriously acting like a 2.91 FIP is the pinnacle of mediocrity??? Unreal.

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  32. puhl

    2 years ago

    While I think he would be best off moving to the NL, the Twins seem to be a team that could really use him. With Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Keuchel and Perez they could be in pretty good shape.

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    • SalaryCapMyth

      2 years ago

      People keep saying things like that. AL pitchers going to NL dont always work out. Jose Quintana and Chris Archer are two examples of pitchers that were more successfull in the AL.

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  33. driftcat28

    2 years ago

    Still hope the Yanks get him, though realistically I know it won’t happen. Regardless he would help this year. And the window is now

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  34. Yankeepatriot

    2 years ago

    He is a darn good pitcher but the fact that his stud seemed to decline last season along with the fact that he’s been asking for a premium has left Dallas in the cold

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  35. bbatardo

    2 years ago

    I have wondered they the Padres haven’t targeted Keuchel… They have great young arms, but most will be on inning limits and even if he is predominately an innings eater he is by far the best one out there and might benefit playing in San Diego with their above average defense behind him.

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  36. MathTeacherSDSUAlumni619

    2 years ago

    Padres need to attach prospects to move Hosmer and put myers back at 1st. Then use the money to offer keuchel 4 years 55 mill with a 5th year option. Or move myers using prospects.

    Only way padres add another big FA is to move Hosmer or Myers.

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    • AtlSoxFan

      2 years ago

      Easier said than done. Realistically, I cannot see anybody taking on the balance of that 8yr/144m overpay SD handed out – it’s only one year in. (Also not sure of the no trade built-ins.) I don’t think anyone will touch that even WITH prospects – runs till age 37.

      The Myers deal though, that’s only got 3 years and a buyout left. I’d bet if they included enough cash in the buyout year to pay off the option, toss in 2 of the numbers 5-10 ranked prospects, maybe one more ptbnl throw in from 20-30 range and you could get a taker from a rebuilder.

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      • MathTeacherSDSUAlumni619

        2 years ago

        AL teams can DH Hosmer. You include a couple top 100s like Mejia Logan Allen and include players like Gettys Austin Allen Arias and another prospect or 2 in the 10-30 range you essentially are providing more fv for a team to take and stick hosmer at DH. It’d cost an arm and leg to move him but core is in tact with machado tatis jr urias and OF.

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        • petrie000

          2 years ago

          Do you see alot of DHs getting 7 year contracts at Hosmer’s AAV? The ‘ability’ to DH doesn’t really drive up value

          Padres would be better off dumping Myers. They can at least sell him as a reclamation project.

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        • AtlSoxFan

          2 years ago

          Agree. Other problem is you get a guy like JD Martinez at a bare minimum cost above a Hosmer.

          Hosmer can hit, but not like a TRUE DH does. Based on his profile now I’m not sure his bat will age well as a DH, he might not have the pop in the last 3 or 4 years

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    • Koamalu

      2 years ago

      Machado said that one of the reasons he came to San Diego was that Hosmer was at 1B. They just brought up Tatis just to make Machado happy, they are not trading Hosmer.

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  37. SalaryCapMyth

    2 years ago

    An injury already happened and Keuchel still wasnt picked up. When the Yankees lost Severino for a month or two they went out and signed Gio. They acquired the lesser pitcher and I can only imagine its because the Yankees werent willingto pay Keuchel his asking price.

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  38. forwhomjoshbelltolls

    2 years ago

    I can’t remember exactly what draft compensation a team like the Pirates would have to surrender to sign a guy like Keuchel…

    If it’s a first, then no way.

    If it’s a third or less, they should really consider a one year offer near the QO amount.

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    • Tyler Durden

      2 years ago

      The Pirates would give up their 3rd round pick. Looking better than any 5th starter for the Pirates…but at what price? I’d like to see them offer 2/26 with a significant bonus structure.

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  39. uvmfiji

    2 years ago

    Saint Paul Saints!

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  40. Yep it is

    2 years ago

    The Braves are cheap and won’t sign him and Preller doesn’t have a clue as how to run a club.

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  41. JD396

    2 years ago

    Given where we’re at, his asking price probably hasn’t budged all winter.

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  42. AllRiseForTheJudge

    2 years ago

    Keuchel is never going to pitch in the show again if he doesn’t come off his absurd demands. Nobody will sign him this year and next winter his choices will be a minor league deal or spending another year out of baseball, and then it’s over.

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  43. Phil253

    2 years ago

    If this dude loved the game he played he’d sign a $&@?!%# deal. Maybe he should consider changing who his agent is or maybe he should evaluate that he took a serious downturn last season and isn’t a sure thing. Felix Hernandez won a Cy Young (should have been 2x imo) and look at home now. That’s Keuchel in a few years or now since he too egotistical to play ball.

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  44. oneiblnd

    2 years ago

    What about Texas?

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  45. mstrchef13

    2 years ago

    I think the biggest issue for Keuchel right now is that he is a minimum of 4 weeks away from contributing to whatever team he signs with. Last year the Orioles signed Cobb midway through spring training and he wasn’t right until the All-Star break because he/they tried to used him too early. If Keuchel signed today he’d need 4-6 weeks in extended spring training before he could be trusted to start a game at the ML level. Unless I don’t understand the roster rules the way I think I do, that would mean signing a minor league contract so they can keep him off the roster for as long as necessary while he gets ready. Doubtful that he and Boras would agree to that.

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  46. Metzger to Helms

    2 years ago

    Hey, Dallas–happy opening day. How’s Scotty’s spring training camp? $90mm for 5 or $17.1mm for a year must be sounding real good about now. What’s Scotty say? Can he even get you a pillow to lay on for a year? Hindsight…

    Like
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