The season is now well underway, and there’s still no evidence that free agent hurlers Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel are close to inking new deals. It has mostly been crickets on the markets for both.
Kimbrel’s slate of potential suitors isn’t any clearer now than it was when we examined his market situation in early March. Neither has anything of significance occurred since we took a look at the possible Keuchel suitors about a week ago.
Those accomplished hurlers have to this point evidently not been willing to settle for pillow deals. It’s hard to blame them for that stance. It also makes it that much harder to guess how things will turn out — and when there’ll be a resolution.
Teams are continuing to make long-term investments in existing players through contract extensions, so it’s not as if they aren’t willing or able to consider future commitments at this stage of the season. But the ongoing insistence on multiple years seemingly makes it likelier that talks will continue to drag.
Waiting until after the June draft would allow the players to shed draft compensation requirements. When last we saw players approaching this caliber languish on the market into the season, one (Stephen Drew) inked in May while the other (Kendrys Morales) waited until just after the draft. Both settled for single-season deals.
When do you think Kimbrel will end up signing? (Link for app users.)
When will Craig Kimbrel sign?
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Just after the draft in June (no more draft compensation) 44% (9,828)
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By the end of April 26% (5,801)
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Sometime in May 17% (3,776)
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Won't sign this season 10% (2,172)
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July or August 3% (736)
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September (not postseason-eligible) 0% (46)
Total votes: 22,359
And how about Keuchel? (Link for app users.)
When will Dallas Keuchel sign?
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Just after the draft in June (no more draft compensation) 44% (7,863)
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By the end of April 25% (4,450)
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Sometime in May 19% (3,334)
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Won't sign this season 9% (1,559)
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July or August 4% (672)
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September (not postseason-eligible) 0% (71)
Total votes: 17,949
Never
Never and a day.
Is Bob Melvin manager for life in Oakland?
kimbel will sign in January of 2020
I didn’t kill my wife!!
I don’t care!
Jumps into the river
And the cold water swept him away.
Guy pulled a Peter Pan right off this drain
It wasn’t me! It was the one-armed man!
Both players far overplayed their hands and are getting punished for it. They need to fire their agents for failing at their jobs, get new representation, forget about the $ for this year and get back under contract and playing ball asap. This can only hurt their long term prospects, especially Keuchel. I’m an attorney and if I ever mismanaged a case to the degree these agents mismanaged these guy’s offseason I’d be fired in a heartbeat. It’s both your job to represent AND manage your client. These agents failed somewhere in managing their clients expectations and getting them employed.
It’s not the agents fault. The players didn’t like the offers being given and instructed their agents not to move forward. It’s not that complicated. Get over yourself.
no it was probably the fault of the agents to begin with, but the players in not bringing down the offers. The agents likely wanted too much for too long, but the players wouldnt cut their losses
Get over yourself. Boras has an agenda and brain washes guys into thinking how he thinks. He’s stubborn and has been manipulating guys for years. He specifically instructed Harper wait till Machado signed so Boras could feel good about getting Harper the highest deal.
You get over yourself man. You just made up a fantasy to spew your hatred of Boras.
I believe it was a joint decision for Harper to wait until after Machado to sign. Both of them wanted to sign for a bigger deal than what Manny got. Neither had to pressure the other in making that decision.
I have no comment, but I’m going to proactively get over myself anyway, just because it seems like a suddenly popular thing to do.
No you were fine you get back on the other side
I’m staying under myself as I refuse to succumb to this peer pressure. Sheep.
Ummm…the guys don’t have a job. I don’t know about how you cut the fat, but if they can play and aren’t, it’s the agents fault.
Boras stinks
“brainwashes.” That’s hilarious. These are adults. And you have not one shred of proof about anything Boras “instructed” Harper to do.
Why do you think agents exist, davidcoonce74? Players give agents tons of money to advise them on whether or not a contract is in the players’ best interest.
Maybe you think agents get paid for nothing more than filling in paperwork?
Actually Harper told Bores what he wanted long term deal with opt outs
Agents are lawyers who negotiate in the players’ best interest, so that the players theoretically aren’t exploited because the players don’t generally have degrees in contract law. We don’t know the process at all because it’s behind closed doors, but I would assume it’s like any business transaction, which is that players and agents meet with the lawyers from the team and hammer out a deal that works for both sides.
I’m sure agents advise the players about everything, but in the end, if Bryce Harper had wanted to play for the Rays for league minimum his agent would have had to negotiate that contract too. It’s not like agents have power of attorney over the players or something.
“…if Bryce Harper had wanted to play for the Rays for league minimum his agent would have had to negotiate that contract too.”
No
Sincerely,
Everyone
And since this is my favorite comment of the thread, I too will attempt to get over myself.
Their job is to handle the legal details, and work angles on behalf of their client. That doesn’t change the fact that they work for their client, not the other way around.
A player agent doesn’t have power of attorney over his client. The player is not chattel (to the agent) as the player was before 1976 (to the team)
Remind me never to hire you as an attorney. When you make false statements out loud, that’s a bad sign.
Is this Scott Boras? What false statement did he make?
I don’t understand this belief that agents dictate when a player signs. Also that agents dictate asking price. I’d have to say that’s pretty ignorant to believe. Agents advise and work out terms of a pending deal? Yes, but ultimately the asking price and terms can only come to fruition if the player puts pen to paper, not the agent.
Also in July or whenever they sign I’d be willing to bet each had various forms of discussions with a handful of teams, no contract talks occurred for 3 months, then 4 teams offered contracts that conveniently were within the same dollar amount and length of time.
Well… did the agent(s) mismanage things and fail or are they under orders from their clients that they keep pushing for a multi-year deal even if it comes at the cost of one season’s worth of income?
This isn’t the first time this kind of situation or something similar has played out just like this before. MLB players have held out beyond the amateur draft before. Other high level sports have had similar. Posted players have outright refused to sign with the bid-winning team. Amateurs frequently refuse to sign by their deadlines in hopes of a bigger bonus. Rarely are agents fired as these kinds of deadlines are approached or passed.
Given that Kimbrel and Keuchel didn’t fire their agent(s) and that agents are rarely fired for this, I believe it to be a rational conclusion that this subset of players are generally happy with their agents.
It’s great for the game to encourage the development of young controllable guys. Tony Clark decried collusion a few weeks ago, then the Trout and Harper sign huge deals along with a few others, so where is the complaining now Tony? Still collusion? Teams should not be criticized for not wanting to over pay for guys like Kimbrel. and Keuchel. Know your market.
I would argue all the extensions give the players an upper hand regarding the collusion theory; that the owners are figuring out that the best way to suppress player salaries is via free agency, the players are realizing that, and that’s why we are seeing so many below-market extensions. The Acuna one is so egregious….but anyway, unless the owners were dumb enough to leave evidence, like they did in the ’80s, there will never be proof. It is a broken system and one that is easily exploitable to explain because the average fan is like, “man I’d love to make a million dollars to play a game.” And therefore support the owners.
Below market? Market correcting in some instances. Players have for many years given up alleged money for security but then a few years ago, more decided to test free agency. Owners then decided not to pay for past performance and suddenly more players (even those not with six years service time but no longer worth the cost compared to younger players) flooded the market. Market correcting.
Why do you say below market? It may be below the,inflated,marked of a decade or so ago but any market never remains the same. What the players are signing for in their extensions are what the market is at the present.
Acuna’s extension has nothing to do with the present. It will carry over well into the next decade. It’s under-market now, and just simple inflation would dictate that salaries for young stars will continue to go up.
Acuna, if all the options are picked up, just signed a ten-year, 130 million dollar contract. 13 million/year. He proves my point, right? He signed an insanely under-valued deal because he likes the Braves or whatever. I’m sure his agent told him how much more he *could* make in the future, unless he’s a terrible agent. Acuna took a bad deal – but that was his choice.
Evidence will only turn up if investigator can get copy of tape from the secret meeting owners had at Sacramento Dave and Busters. At the meeting, San Diego was designated the landing place for the worst contract of the off season, hence Hosmer then Machado.
Acuña extension is egregious??? Really??? Nobody force him to sign it. You have no clue what will happen over 10 years and neither does he and that’s why he signed it, his words not mine. Too many Bernie lovers on this site constantly crying about owners trying to make money…
“Too many Bernie lovers on this site crying about owners trying to make money” is pretty rich. Trade the word “owners” for “players” and then what whom are we lovers of?
The players are the game; nobody pays to watch an owner sit in his luxury box. People will argue that the owners take all the financial risk, conveniently leaving out the massive taxpayer investments in stadium and infrastructure that allows them huge, record profits.
I don’t know why Acuna signed that extension; Unless he absolutely falls off a cliff, which would be very rare for a player that good that young, or suffers some terrible career-ending injury, he could have probably made that money by the end of his Arb years. The career of a professional athlete is over, usually, by age 40 – can’t fault the players for trying to make as much as they can before then, especially since they generate the profit for the team.
Two words: Grady Sizemore
Yep, that’s the case everyone likes to talk about. But a Sizemore is pretty rare, and it would seem odd for every player to fear that would happen to him. I do not know if Sizemore was ever offered an extension or turned one down or even reached Free Agency while he was still healthy. Maybe Acuna’s medicals are troublesome in some way that we don’t know about. But Sizemore’s career began 15 years ago; baseballs economics are in much better shape than they were then.
I’d love to see one single player complain about being forced into signing an egregiously below market extension to support this idea. They don’t because they and their camp spend many hours figuring out potential earnings vs what’s being offered and they go into their deals feeling pretty good. To say Acuna is getting robbed based on what he could earn on an assumed performance trajectory is tragically misinformed
If both team options are exercised this is a ten-year/130 million dollar deal. 13 MM/year. That’s, like, Chase Headley money. That’s well-below Shin Soo-Choo money. That’s. a massive underpay. But as I wrote above, the agent works for the player; Acuna took a well-below-market deal for reasons that are all his own. But we can acknowledge that if Acuna continues to play as he did in his rookie season he is going to be laughably underpaid in 5 seasons.
That’s not remotely close to collusion. Collusion requires the owners to be working together in coordinated fashion. What you are describing is a natural effect of this market.
Team-friendly extensions aren’t evidence of collusion; not even in the slightest.
It’s not even knowing the market. It’s the way Boras plays the game. For years he’s set ludicrous prices out of the gate and played teams against themselves, GMs got smarter stopped doing that. So the past 5-7 years Boras has went to the dumb owners and lied to them. Now those owners are either dead or up against the Lux tax and he can’t find any suckers. If Kimbrel was looking for a 3 deal highest AAv possible he’d be signed by now. He asked for 6 and smartly every single team raised a eyebrow and laugh and signed someone else.
You cannot force employers into paying free agent salaries. It’s smarter and wiser to invest in your farm system and develop players. That’s no collusion it’s good sensible business. MLBPLA should be stop screaming about collusion and provide a better and mutually beneficial business model. MLBPLA lose traction when they make lame arguments of collusion when owner’s have a legit alternative improving their team. Bigger and less reported issue may be downsizing a team like they did in Miami and expect fans to pay market rates for a gutted team.
I want MLBPLA to set up off season workout coverage. Like Rocky III, with dancers, music, and celebrities joining our favorite players as they ramp up for season.
Extra revenue that the owners can’t touch!
Except Rocky lost his eye of the tiger and edge by doing that.
What I propose is having workouts in Compton basement gym and celebrities such as Stallone and Weathers there encouraging young studs to bring rhythm, dance, and swimming into their training.
Ah….now you’re talking. Go back to where you started to find that edge. Well played.
Kimbrel is not Boras client
Kuechel has a better chance of signing because starting pitching is always in demand and injuries will start hitting. Kimbrel overpriced himself. He was horrible last year and he is tied to compensation. He might sign off on a pro-rated, remaining of the season deal but I don’t see him getting a big, long term deal unless he shows he is a premier closer in the 2nd half.
Kimbrel was not horrible last season. He kind of fell apart closer to the end of the season and the playoffs but he was arguably tipping his pitches. After Gagne called him out he did all right.
Kimbrel wasn’t terrible. He was a top 5 closer in baseball statistically. He just wasn’t his best. His numbers were skewed too because he tipped pitches for a while.,, also, in the playoffs, he wasn’t normal Kimbrel, and he still did not allow a single blown save
I watched him all year. He wasn’t terrible, but he was scary, and his record would have been much worse without the superior Sox offense and outfield defense. His initial demands were deluded, and of course he is “to blame” for the fact that he hasn’t signed yet. He rejected the qualifying offer. He could have signed for, say, 45 million for three years any time he wanted to….and he’s not worth more than that—no closer is.
Anyone who watched Kimbrel in a Sox uniform understands statistics can lie. He was lights out in 2017 but the other two seasons he was Don Stanhouse 2.0 who Earl Weaver nicknamed “two pack” because of the cigarettes he consumed while watching Stanhouse close.
Also, in playoffs, MLB uses smoother ball, less grip for pitchers, more action for viewers.
Interesting! Never heard that before. IMO That shouldn’t affect pitching that much since all pitchers have some kind of sticky residue somewhere on their cap, glove and or uniform. Umpires and managers do nothing about it because all of them do it. When they adjust their caps right before every pitch it’s not because it doesn’t fit properly!
Keuchel and Kimbrel both peaked years ago. They are delusional to think they will get the same money as if they were free agents in 2016 and 2018, respectively.
Well that’s just not true. Kimbrel was a lot better the past two years then he was in 2016, 2017 was one of the best seasons of his career. I understand not wanting to give him a mega contract but let’s not pretend Kimbrel is some bum who has not performed at an elite level recently.
Isn’t 2017 part of the last two years you were referring to?
Lol! Math is skill one must have when you want to argue a point about baseball and stats and money. I you lack the basic math skills do not it is just showing up to a battle of wits unarmed.
lol
Pillow. You’re not better than Chapman, why ask for 100M?
The day after the draft pick stuff goes away.
Yup.
season just started, well underway might be first of may.
Who?
They will sign as soon as they are ready to accept a 2 year deal.
A few more blown leads by the Nats bullpen should help Kimbrel get signed real fast
For some reason the Nationals have never put any money into their bullpen. It has consistently lost us every year both in and out of the playoffs. I cant see the Nationals winning the division if they don’t add someone like Kimbrel. Doolittle already said that he’d give up closer to Kimbrel, if signed.
Ignoring the nailbighters, the stink all season long in hold or non-save opportunities, and the playoff/season end fiasco, Kimbrel also has the distinction of about a 12% blown save rate in 2018.
Savior of the season, especially after sitting out ST and not facing mlb hitters, he is not.
Well… a 12% BS rate is pretty typical and well — WELL — within reason for even exceptional closers. Last year in his historic season, Edwin Diaz had a BS rate of 7%. With as few as 3 inherited runners scoring from 3B on outs, he’d have had a 12% rate…
Some team is waiting in the wings with a contract they’ll agree to waiting for the draft pick loss to be averted. Angels, Padres, Pirates, etc… Could all jump in.
The Nats bullpen is a disaster. Kimbrel just got more valuable.
Our Dodgers could use him bad
Forget those two bums, when will Evan Gattis sign?
The Braves are a couple more embarrassing series away from bringing in at least one of them. I don’t know why teams like the Angels or even Mariners wouldn’t as well, especially if the M’s keep on rolling.
Every team is hot for a week. The Mariners probably won’t make the playoffs and Keuchel, if he is signed in June, would be hard to sell in July
If either was willing to take a 1 or 2 year deal they’d be signed by now. Waiting until after the draft will drop the draft pick, sure but I still don’t see anyone willing to sign them on for the years they want. I just don’t see the market at their asking price.
Kimbrel can start by trimming that dumb beard. Keuchel too.
Don’t you have some clouds to yell at?
Beards on Gingers , just not a good look.
Why do they all have one then?
@Stig – because secretly they’re all leprechauns.
The legend has it wrong though, it’s not the catching that gets you a pot o gold, it’s cutting off a beard while holding one down
There is a combination of player/agent fault for not getting a better read on the somewhat manipulated morphing market, and the owners for some likely collusive elements. Neither of these two players was singled out specifically — they just got the short end of the stick.
In 2020!
Book it!
Where is Evan Gattis?
El Oso Blanco!
Think of the marketing opportunities!
Doesn’t anybody care?
Need a “don’t care” selection. Trying to grab every dollar possible is causing both to lose. It’s wise to take the best offer available as that is pretty much what you are actually worth
With their current demands I just don’t see anyone signing either of them
2nd and 3rd week of April for both
We don’t really know what either of these guys really asked for or was willing to accept, we only know it was more than their (apparently) slim market was offering. But we should acknowledge that there are forces right now that even the most acute of agents might not have realized soon enough. 1st, there’s little doubt that big market teams are seeing, when they want not to spend, the CBT thresholds as a hard cap. Second, the bottom has dropped out of the “competitiveness” market. Many teams just don’t how poor a team they field, as long as it’s the cheapest one possible to maximize their profits. Third, the Union bungled terribly when they failed to realize that focus should have been on the younger player–for service time, for MLB minimums, arbitration, etc.–because that’s where the real squeeze in the market is being enabled. There’s no excuse (for the Union, not the teams, because why not exploit it?) to not realize that there needs to be an alternate to mere service time days. Add in alternate criteria like PA, innings or games pitched. The Union shouldn’t be working for Scott Boras–they should be working for the player coming off a 4 WAR season who sat in the minors for 3 weeks, and won’t reach FA forever, and is being told by management either sign a cheap extension, or play for MMLB minimum as long as we can do it to you.
Maybe the Union out to be focussing on revenue sharing the next time around and making sure teams spend more of what they get.
You don’t have to be very astute as an agent to see that the big spending teams that have always driven the prices up were all against the soft cap. NYY, Boston, LAD, Washington, and Cubs either didn’t have the room, or didn’t really need the player. It’s also not very hard to notice the number of rebuilding teams that weren’t going to be bidding. Add to that the rumors of high asking prices that the agents allegedly started at, and its obviously a poor job by the agent in recognizing the current market.
you can’t blame them for not signing? they aren’t playing. that can’t help their value. the longer they wait the lower the dollar amount will get. they should just settle on a 1 year deal with any team. they will be traded to a contender regardless. then try out the market again and accept the fact that they didn’t play their cards right
They can always go do something else.
I’m probably crazy but I don’t want him or Keuchel at this point. Too many late signings struggle. Apparently pitchers need spring training.
Yeah, tell that to Alex Cora
I seem to recall Roger Clemens, at the end of his career, signing these late half-year-type deals and pitching well in limited starts. Of course, he might have had a little assistance but he was also kind of a workout freak.
….and well into his 40’s. Kuechel and Kimbrel are not.
I really wish the braves would go get both. At the least, kimbrell. I know both is crazy but gosh, we need it
If Robertson and Dominguez keep sucking, Kimbrel will be a Philly within 5 games.
It’s the agent’s job to understand the market and offer advise to their client (the player). That’s why there’s agencies to begin with. The agents of both players clearly misplayed their hands. In particular, the relief market isn’t the same market that saw Chapman and Jansen get deals in excess of $80 million. Michael Brantley was expected to get at least 3-4 years, but settled for two because that’s where his market fell at. Kimbrel was never going to get the 6/100 (I believe that’s what was reported give or take), but here’s thinking he’d be signed yesterday if he was willing to take three years. Whatever money he doesn’t make this year is a loss.
Both over priced,After the Draft and 1 or 2 Year Deals,Good Luck with that
Where is the Who cares vote?
And yet you commented *yawn*
Kimbrel will sign when he stops insisting on a six year contract. If he was willing to sign a three year deal, he’d be pitching now. He’s being ridiculous…
I think both will get a hefty deal if they wait til after the draft for 2 reasons, no draft compensation and teams will be much more desperate for arms as the deadline approaches. Instead of overpaying w/ prospects they’ll overpay w/ money. The question is, do either have the stones to hold out til then?
A better question is why are neither of them signed? The best reliever ever is not playing. Yes, ever. His stats are better than Mo’s. Doesn’t that bother you? It should. I want to see the best players and he is not on the field. Kuechel declined some last year and was still a top 20 pitcher and he doesn’t have a job. That bugs me. Again, I want to see the best players on the field and they are not.
Koamalu the Drama Queen.
I predict 1year deals at best, for a playoff bound team
Ummm.. Theo? You better be on the phone with his agent or Cubs season is over before it even starts
Hate to break it to ya. The Cubs dynasty was over before it began. Theo and Maddon are gone. They won’t survive a necessary rebuild.
Keuchel and Kimbrel have been kidnapped by extraterrestrial aliens.
Keuchel and Kimbrel have been kidnapped by extraterrestrial aliens!
The day of the one inning designated closer is coming to an end. Kimbrel should have taken what he could get in December, January or earlier. Keuchel isn’t as good as he thinks he is or he would have been signed for big $$ earlier. The world has moved on.
How many world Series rings have you won? I get tired of wanna be experts.
What are you doing reading comments on the Internet, then?
hopefully when the player/agent or both stops being greedy. Im not talking about the cheap contract Adam Jones signed, no of course you can expect more than that. But not 20 mil and especially not to a closer if that’s what they’re asking.
It is so early that some comments are laughable. For example, the only complaint by any Braves fan that woukd make sense is if the person making the comment knew which Braves pitchers from their stable of studs were going to take that big step forward and which won’t.
I’ll bet Keuchel is kicking himself for turning down the Astros QO. What was it, 18 million?
Pretty much whenever they want. At this point, they’re looking at a 1 year deal. This being said, if they wait for someone to get desperate due to injury, they could end up with a far more lucrative deal.
The Phillies started out with 3 closers..Hector Scare-us, Seranthony, and Robertson..
This just in, the Phillies need a closer…
Sigh!
Keuchel will sign 3 to 5 days after he hires a new agent.
Hopefully the orioles sign Dallas!