TODAY: Stewart will receive roughly $6.2MM in guaranteed money, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, though incentives could make the total in the range of $11MM-$12MM, plus even more is available in awards bonuses.
MAY 21, 8:25pm: Stewart will sign a six-year contract worth more than $7MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He’ll start off in the minor leagues over in Japan.
One can only wonder if Stewart’s decision will ultimately inspire other domestic amateurs to pursue similar opportunities overseas. By securing a $7MM+ guarantee, he’ll almost certainly eclipse what he’d have made in terms of his bonus in next month’s draft. While he’s now locked in his salaries for more than a half decade and put a fairly hard cap on what he can earn, Stewart would’ve likely been years away from even being a consideration for an MLB roster — at which point he’d have been another three years away (at least) from reaching arbitration eligibility. It could very well have taken him as long, if not longer, to reach the point where he could’ve locked in a guaranteed $7MM by playing in Major League Baseball — if he ever reached that level of earnings at all.
1:55pm: Stewart will receive more than $4MM under the deal, MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (Twitter link).
8:37am: Amateur pitching prospect Carter Stewart will continue to take an unusual career path, foregoing the upcoming amateur draft in favor of a stint with Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the agreement (Twitter links).
Though precise terms aren’t yet known, Rosenthal indicates that Stewart will be subject to Nippon Professional Baseball’s typical ten-year player-control system. Whether there are any further understandings or agreements regarding his future aren’t known. Stewart was “believed to be seeking” a $7MM guarantee, per Rosenthal. It’s not yet known whether he’ll receive that level of promise from Fukuoka, and in what form (bonus vs. salary) it’ll be paid.
Stewart is widely considered one of the most talented amateur pitchers in the world. Indeed, the Braves selected him out of high school with the eighth overall pick in the 2018 draft. The sides failed to agree to a contract after the club got a closer look at the medicals. A ligament issue in Stewart’s wrist led the club to lower its offer.
Rather than take the reduced bonus, Stewart enrolled at Eastern Florida State College. By going to a junior college, he preserved the ability to reenter the draft this year. Meanwhile, Stewart and his representatives initiated a grievance regarding the negotiations with the Braves. It was ultimately resolved in the team’s favor. The Braves hold a compensatory pick in this year’s draft.
In the intervening year since the ’18 draft, pundits have soured a bit on Stewart. He delivered excellent results and is still said to have shown top-shelf stuff at times, but also dealt with some inconsistency and saw a few other questions crop up. As of today, Stewart was rated 38th overall by Baseball America and landed just inside the top sixty players on the Fangraphs and MLB.com draft prospect lists.
Heading to Japan hardly means that Stewart won’t have a chance at the majors. But it does make for quite a different — and frankly fascinating — career course. It seems reasonable to presume that Stewart will be counted against the Hawks’ limit of four foreign players — if and when he’s added to the active roster. He’d be eligible to be posted back to MLB teams (with a transfer fee capped at $20MM) at any time, at the election of his new team.
There’s some risk in heading abroad, but it’s hard to ignore the appeal. Stewart will have a heck of a cultural experience. He will presumably enjoy much greater earnings out of the gates, though bonus and salary details aren’t yet known. Neither is it clear whether Stewart is expected to jump right into the team’s NPB rotation out of the gates, but it stands to reason that he’ll be competing in consequential games in front of thousands of passionate fans much sooner in Japan than he would have in North America.
The international transactional landscape continues to evolve in fascinating ways. Shohei Ohtani pushed for an early move to the majors after previously dabbling with a decision to come straight over as an amateur player. Last fall, the Diamondbacks nabbed a promising Japanese amateur player in unusual fashion. We have continued to see North American players head to Japan and other Asian nations in efforts to earn better money and revive their careers, though roster limitations effectively cap the number that can do so. Now, there’s a potential new talent pipeline heading west across the Pacific.
Show Me Your Tatis
What even was the point of that grievance? I’ll bet that that was part of the reason he dropped in the draft prospect rankings. Because teams didn’t want to deal with the headaches.
Because a team could draft a player with no intent to sign him, use that $$ to pay over slot on other picks and then get the comp pick a year later in a deeper draft.
Dont you lose that slot money if you don’t sign the player in that slot?
Yes that is correct!
They may draft a player hoping to sign him at a significantly reduced amount to use the extra money to pay more somewhere else.
You don’t lose the slot money, the money just gets postponed one year along with the pick. You get the equivalent slot money the next year to go along with the #9 pick, so it’s not like they just lose it. If the draft is deeper, Polish Hammer’s idea still makes a great deal of sense.
Show Me Your Tatis
@hiflew but Polish Hammer said the Braves could have used the slot money from the #8 pick to sign their other draftees in 2018, which simply isn’t true.
You are correct, I didn’t read that part of his comment. My bad.
Show Me Your Tatis
If you do that you lose the extra slot money.
Also, a deeper draft doesn’t much matter when you’ve got the level of pitcher that Stewart is supposed to be.
Polish Hammer, your theory is erroneous. If a team fails to sign a player they drafted they lose the money that was allotted to that pick.
The sole reason that Stewart didn’t sign with the Braves was because his after draft medical showed legitimate concerns which resulted in the Braves offering Stewart less money than he felt he was worthy of receiving.
Show Me Your Tatis
And then he filed a frivolous grievance against the Braves.
Not frivolous at all, 1st rounders dont get paid less than what the Braves offered. Insulting they even attempted to keep him. But why didn’t the Braves do a pre-draft medical on him if he was in their top 8 prospects in the first place? He’s paying for the Braves failure at the draft and nothing more.
Show Me Your Tatis
It was the very definition of frivolous. The Braves did offer him 40% of slot value, he and Boras knew they offered him 40% of slot value, the Braves weren’t obligated to do anything more than that and they went forward with the grievance anyway, blatantly lying about what the Braves offered.
I’m not sure teams are allowed to do pre-draft physicals. But once the Braves found out about the wrist issue they were clearly more interested in securing that extra draft pick than signing Stewart, hence them offering just barely enough to secure that pick. Stewart didn’t have to sign if he didn’t want to but the Braves did nothing wrong here.
The grievance was about whether the Braves made an actual offer of 40% of slot value, or whether it was just suggested in the negotiations. Seems to have been more of a fact-finding investigation.
Show Me Your Tatis
@bencole you’re missing the point. Clearly the Braves did offer 40% of slot and clearly Stewart and Boras knew all along that they offered 40% of slot so the grievance had no point. What exactly did they expect to happen? There is no grey area in this case. The Braves either did or didn’t offer 40% of slot. They didn’t have to offer a single penny more. As long as they did then Stewart and Boras had no case.
Teams arent allowed to do pre-draft medicals. The potential prospects produce a medical report and then after the draft teams are allowed to give their new prospects medicals. It’s a stupod system but thats the way it currently is.
No Tatis, you’re missing my point. The grievance was as to whether the 40% was actually an official offer or not. Meaning a formal, written offer. If not, it doesn’t, or likely doesn’t qualify. There was actually question as to whether they met that standard.
Show Me Your Tatis
Well clearly there was a formal written offer and Stewart and Boras knew it from the get-go (How could they not?) so the grievance was pointless.
Show Me Your Tatis
There might have been question in our (the fans’) minds as to whether the Braves’ offer met the standard but there was no question in the minds of the Braves FO, Carter Stewart and Scott Boras.
Without knowing exact details a grievance typically results from a break down in an already established agreement.
Say the braves and Stewart already had a gentleman’s agreement and the braves found out his medical and changed the agreement that was agreed upon but not finalized.
Or the braves took him knowing what he was expecting to be paid, did so with the intent of not paying him, and the grievance was an issue of lost wages.
Bravest fans could shed more light as they probably followed it closely as to what the exact issue was.
Either way it was a long shot.
Show Me Your Tatis
Pre-draft deals are not legally binding for either side. In fact, it’s my understanding that they are technically against the rules but the commissioner’s office just looks the other way most of the time.
The team also isn’t obligated to pay the player exactly what he’s asking for, just like he isn’t obligated to sign if they don’t.
It was my understanding that Stewart and Boras were claiming that the Braves didn’t offer the requisite 40% of slot value. But it was later confirmed that they did so it really makes me wonder why Stewart and Boras would waste time on that one knowing full well that the Braves offered 40% of slot.
I remember the medicals were a big issue. Stewart’s camp was saying the wrist injury was insignificant and the Braves just had buyers remorse but for a kid who drew interest because of the spin rate on his curveball any wrist injury was going to be looked at as serious.
As for the grievance I think he and Boras knew it was a long shot because by the time he filed it he had already enrolled in JuCo.
Show Me Your Tatis
It wasn’t a long-shot. They had no case to begin with. The only question was did the Braves or did they not offer Stewart 40% of slot value? Clearly they did and clearly Stewart and Boras knew they did so it just seemed kind of pointless. Filing frivolous grievances against the team that drafted you sure can’t help your draft stock.
I agree, but as you said there are no legally binding draft deals so it’s quite possible they hoped the Braves didn’t keep adequate records on what was offered or had indeed lowballed the offer. It wasn’t clear that they did make the 40% offer until an arbiter ruled that they had.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Boras thought that the previous shenanigans with the Braves FO under Coppollela might give his side more merit.
Show Me Your Tatis
What do you mean they “hoped the Braves had indeed lowballed the offer!?” They knew the Braves didn’t lowball the offer! They didn’t have to guess what the Braves’ offer was. Nor did they have to guess what the assigned slot value was. We might not have known what was offered until the arbiter ruled on it but the Braves, Stewart and Boras did. As long as they offered 40% of slot or more, Stewart and Boras never had any chance at all of winning this one. The Braves didn’t have to do anything beyond that to get their comp pick and keep Stewart from being declared a FA.
So again, what was the point?
The issue was Boras was not Stewart’s agent at the time the Braves made the offer. This didn’t invalidate the offer and the arbitrator said so. The medical revealed a potential long term problem with the pitching wrist. The Braves were not going to pay a premium rate for something they could not know before the physical revealed it. The 40% offer was still about 2 million. With the high spin rate Stewart had, which was a big part of his value, the injury would definitely impact his future. The confusion about the 40% offer happened around the time Stewart was switching representation to Boras.
Well I’m merely playing devils advocate since neither you, myself, or anyone else outside the direct situation really has no idea what was known and what wasn’t known. I agreed with you that the grievance was frivolous so I have no idea why you seem to be getting so worked up over it.
I guess IMO it was an attempt by Stewart and Boras to take advantage of an organization that had recently been found guilty of underhanded schemes involving IFA and the amateur draft, otherwise like you said, what was the point?
Show Me Your Tatis
@RBI Whether or not Stewart was with Boras at the time doesn’t make a difference. The only question that had to be answered was “Did the Braves or did they not offer 40% of slot?” The Braves FO, Stewart and Boras all knew the answer to that before the grievance was ever filed.
Show Me Your Tatis
@Jon429 We do know that the Braves FO, Stewart and Boras all knew for a fact what was offered before the grievance was ever filed. Stewart and Boras didn’t have to guess what the Braves’ offer was (that information was provided to them). They also didn’t have to guess what the assigned slot value was (that information was available for free on the Internet). I am just trying to get a better sense of what exactly Stewart and Boras were going for here. People keep saying it was a low-risk high-reward gamble but a “gamble” by definition has a nonzero chance of working out in the gambler’s favor. This didn’t. And the risk involved would be rubbing GM’s the wrong way. Character concerns have hurt a guy’s draft stock in the past (see Latos, Mat and Romero, Seth).
Just my 2c here, but anybody who throws a lot of curve balls period and especially good ones stands a high chance of having some type of elbow and/or wrist damage due to the twisting type of action required for that pitch, unless the arm is special.
why would they draft him with the intent of not signing him and losing that slot money, when they could have selected a lower rated prospect and payed less than slot to spread the money on later picks
You have it exactly kahnkobra. The Braves drafted him because they wanted him, but the physical showed issues with his pitching wrist. Braves were not willing to pay full price for injured goods, so they offered him a discounted pay rate. Even after the medicals, they still wanted him.
Boras tried to get free agency on a technicality and failed.
Show Me Your Tatis
@RBI But why did he even try when he knew that the Braves offered 40% of slot and they didn’t have to do anything more than that? The odds of him winning that one were exactly zero from the get-go.
The odds were not zero. Until a test in arbitration the technicality had not been ruled on. It was a long shot, but Boras had to try it in court to decide the technicality’s viability. I don’t agree with Boras on this, but I can see why he tried. He is too smart to test something with zero chance .
Show Me Your Tatis
@RBI yes the odds were zero! The rules regarding this issue are black and white. All the Braves had to do was offer 40% of slot value. That’s it. There is no gray area. As long as they did that then Stewart and Boras had no case. This was ruled on back in 2010 after the incident with the Diamondbacks and Barret Loux happened. And Stewart and Boras knew all along that the Braves offered more than 40% of slot. They didn’t have to guess what the Braves’ offer was (that was provided to them). They also didn’t have to guess what the assigned slot value what (that information was available for free on the Internet). If the Braves indeed did offer 40% of slot value (which they did) how exactly would Stewart and Boras have had any chance at winning this one? They wouldn’t. It wasn’t even a long shot because a long shot implies a non-zero chance of success.
I believe had Stewart won his grievance he would have been granted free agency allowing him to sign with any team for whatever they would pay him and the Braves would lose the compensation pick.
Show Me Your Tatis
That is correct and that was what Stewart and Boras wanted. But they were never going to win and they knew it which begs the question of why they filed that grievance in the first place.
I hope he’s fluent in Japanese. Should’ve took the money the Braves offered.
Why? The Braves offered him $2 million, compared to $7 million in Japan. You wouldn’t learn a second language for $5 million?
He’ll get a start or two on the ni-gun team for sure before they call him up. This is a great pickup for them, but Softbank is far from desperate for pitching. The rich get richer.
Maybe he takes Nao Higashihama’s spot in the rotation if he’s still struggling? Maybe Shota Takeda goes back to the bullpen full-time? There shouldn’t be a roster issue at all — with Rick van den Hurk and Dennis Sarfate injured for the foreseeable future, the fourth foreigner spot is wide open after Alfredo Despaigne, Yurisbel Gracial, and the recently returned Ariel Miranda.
You know so much more about NPB than anyone I’ve ever met. Makes me want to start following the league a bit more.
Use 1.02 the essence of baseball and it’ll help. It’s like fangraphs, but player pages and other stats are hidden behind a paywall.
I watch using Pacific League TV. It cost around $15/mo. and is similar to mlb.tv, except it only shows games for one of the leagues (except during interleague play).
There are some guides on how to sign up without knowing Japanese. One of them can be found at reddit.com/npb.
Can we finally get a fan or someone to report on over sea players who have chances to make a jump during the off season whether it be foreign born players or American born players looking to rebuild capital.
Could be its own segment/series on here and could add a little interest.
I’m sure ALOT of readers would be interested in keeping tabs on guys over seas who could find themselves coming to the MLB.
The big one to look for this offseason is Shogo Akiyama of the Lions. Extremely complete left-handed hitter who can handle CF. Kind of like the Shin-soo Choo skillset but with a little more speed and a little less power at the plate; a little more range but a little less arm in the field. The type of hitter who runs into homers while trying to hit doubles. Good discipline and great contact skills.
Downside is he will be already be 30 or 31, as he is not being posted, but rather will have earned his international free agency.
Is there any indication of wether or not Testudo Yamada plans on coming over next year?
He would have to be posted. He has expressed interest publicly in the past, but often, the way these situations are handled is that the teams negotiate higher salaries with players behind closed doors to keep them around. Generally speaking, player salaries are vastly less public in the NPB than they are over here, and there are many reports that the figures that ARE made public are frequently inaccurate on purpose.
So, I’m guessing Yamada is making some decent money now, and if he starts to talk to the media about wanting to be posted again, the odds are even that the result is a contract extension instead of him actually being posted.
tl;dr it’s possible that Yamada will be posted this year, but probably not.. He’s still three years (I think) from international free agency
Excellent knowledge. Are you sure that yo you are in the right place?
Thanks — I am not sure at all
This site should have you writing all things West Pacific.
Clear, concise and knowledgeable. Good work.
This is bizarre
If NPB dropped its team control to something more in line with MLB they could probably lure more young talent with the ability to get paid more while skipping the minors.
Not a bad idea. If they dropped it to 5 years im sure many young players would come over since theyd have a chance to sign wherever they choose once their stint over seas was up instead of being subject to team control and the arbitration process.
Honestly, even if NPB doesn’t drop team control I wouldn’t be shocked to see more young players start to take this route.
– They get to play against a higher level of competition initially than rookie ball.
– They get better living accomodations
– They get paid more
Ohtani was nowhere near free agency when he was posted but he had a handshake agreement to be posted when he was ready to head stateside.
Once they come over they’ll get locked into a contract with a team they choose instead of being subjected to arbitration with the team that drafted them. Plus if the team has already invested in them it is less likely that they’ll be forced to ride the AAA shuttle until they’re “proven”.
MLB has been losing talented athletes to MLB and NBA for years because of the way their minor league system and draft $ works. Could this be the start of them losing talent to Japan?
Probably not. Yes you get to play against better competition, but you have to remember these are 18-22 year olds. Most of them have never lived outside of their parents house. They would have to adjust to a completely different lifestyle roughly 7,000 miles away from friends and family.
I’m not too sure I like the idea of this from MLB’s standpoint, but, really, what can they do about it? I can see this can lead to a slippery slope very fast.
MLB could pay minor leaguers higher than sub minimum wage, provide them better meals, provide housing, improve travel and accommodations.
Obviously, those all have costs attached. But if MiLB wasn’t a monopoly then they would have to compete.
Yeah…you reap what you sow here. The MLB spent millions in lobbying to get the “Save America’s Pastime Act” passed, so they could pay Minor Leaguers below the minimum wage. I don’t blame any player for skipping out on that system if they’re presented with an alternative where they’ll actually make some money.
I completely agree. He’s taking a huge risk here (and who knows if it’ll pan out), but a big part of the reason this is even happening is because of the way that MLB treats its minor leaguers.
I actually wrote a paper about that for one of my sport management classes last semester; most of the issues were apparent before even having to do the research, but these players don’t even get livable wages. Even just paying every minor leaguer a teacher’s salary would be a drop in the bucket. They get per diem on road trips and don’t pay for staying in team hotels, but when they have to work significant hours in the offseason to make ends meet, it’s taking away time that they can continue improving as a player.
all i see is the potential for more lax transfer agreements between the two leagues. if a guy who wont be in the majors for 3-5 years goes to Japan for that long, i see no problem. actually makes the prospect development system much more interesting, and may help reinvigorate the FA system.
Carter Stewart peed away millions. Now he’s smoking something funny in his pipe…
He’ll probably sign for millions…
he’ll probably get more in japan than he would as anything but a top 10 pick, and if he doesn’t make it in Japan the only downside is he gets to come back to the US as a free agent before he’s 30
whatever he’s smoking seems to be making him very clear-headed.
He’s not as quite as bad as Matt Harrington (look him up), but this just seems like a bad idea all around.
Harrington and his agent really screwed themselves.
What’s funny is Boras was also Harrison’s agent (second draft) and the guy still didn’t sign. Lol
This was an awesome read. What a knucklehead, why didn’t he sign after the second draft?
Braves dodged a bullet with this guy. He dropped off last year and he’s making questionable decisions. Not to mention I think if you have real health concerns, then don’t spend the money.
That said, I kinda like this move on his part. Might forced the mlb to be more creative in a positive way for the players. Idk. Prob won’t
At how high of a pick that was, yeah. However, with at least decent JuCO play he could have played his way back into the conversation and the 1st rd. IMHO, he didn’t do himself any favors with the spin by filing the grievance afterwards. He still has a shot at being an impact player considering the recent success of a few that have found success in Asia (i.e. Miles Mikolas). That being said, I’m glad ATL got their pick back (minus 1 spot).
Maybe I am wrong but I think this is brilliant. He will still get his millions to sign, will play in a way better league and pretty much skip the minors if he does well. I’m sure Boras has a agreement in place that he will be posted when deemed ready. I dont see any downside to this for Carter. Great play.
I agree. He will be getting paid a fair sum in the NPB, much more than he would in the MILB. And then he could come to the states and make millions when he’s ready for the MLB
The Hawks play their home games in a real ugly dome.
MLB losing to the NFL, and now the door is opened further to losing to the NPB? Even more reason to start focusing investment on draft picks, restructuring the system, redesign the old 3 years of team control, plus 3 years of arb control, to only focus on a more equitable plan that doesn’t just put money in the hands of over the hill 30 year olds, and pays the young, impact players.
This system needs fixing fast, or more players will bail.
Commish needs to stop focusing on speeding up the game time and other cosmetic changes, and focusing on increasing the talent level.
It’s not the control, but beginning in 2012 and enacting hard draft pick bonus caps when trouble began. Baseball wants kids badly to think of turning this way over football and other sports? not think of going to another country? Stop with ludicrous caps.
There was no out of line bonuses 2011 and prior, it was penny pinching teams poor mouthing as always demanding these hard spending caps and it’s high time to do away with them altogether. Bad enough they got freebie picks added, stop with the amounts.
their ludicrous refusal to pay a living wage to minor leaguers also doesn’t help. i mean, you’d think that when you needed an act of congress just to make those wages legal, that should have been a bit of a warning that trouble was brewing….
I’ve got ideas on MiLB money, tho they may not be popular.. Most all MiLB franchises are not team owned the last several decades, this is not how it once was and these private owners count on attendance to keep them afloat with very little advertising support coming in. little is made of that. I’d like to see team control of MiLB franchises once again, as it once was for a start.
Attendance will suffer, no doubt with “company” people taking over, but MLB ownership will not be beholden to having to provide any type of competitive team for one thing, other than actual prospects and not worry about having to fill the stands.
There is such a thing as salaried workers in this country for those not aware of it in certain areas of the country and expect to work no more than 40 hours per week, then get overtime.. I know that might blow your minds, but it’s true.. MiLB kids at each level could have a certain figure (livable) instead of the pittance they are currently being paid.
As for funding of teams? Every organization throws money away. We see it. Another way (to me) is don’t sign a MLB FA even. MLBPA should be all over getting these kids paid
If teams owned the minor league franchises they’d at least have a consistency that’s been lost the last decade or so. As a Jays fan I always associated the team with Syracuse. I’m sure O’s fans associate Rochester the same way, Yankees and the Clippers etc. Your idea would allow the association to remain for a long time. I think that builds a brand and that’s a good thing.
I’m happy that Stewart has circumvented the terrible minor-league pay/service time manipulations of MLB and make more guaranteed money than he would ever be guaranteed in this MLB system (unless he turns into a star, of course). BUt in the six years he’ll be in Japan he will make far more than he would in six years in the minors/pre-arb. So good for him.
I wouldn’t worry, though, that this portends a mass exodus to Japan for draftees, simply because NPB rules only allow for four foreign players per team. So that’s overblown. Because Stewart is a pitching prospect, there’s a pretty high risk that he’ll never even make the majors, and that the 2 million that ATlanta offered as a bonus would be the only money he’d ever make. While 2 million dollars is a lot of money, I don’t think any of us would turn down 7 milllion to take 2 million.
And also, in 6 years he’ll be 25 and eligible to be posted to MLB, and if he’s good, he’ll make his serious money then.
I actually think this is a brilliant move by Stewart and his agent. From a development perspective I think this is also positive. This could pave the way for future players out of high school. This could push high school players to decline the signing bonus which could also force organizations to lean toward college talent. Definite ripple effect in the making.
This puts an exclamation point on some MLB advice I used to hear all the time but haven’t heard in awhile. High school pitchers should be concentrating way more on the fastball and less on off speed pitches. This kid was drafted top 8 straight out of highschool and was or is extremely talented. He is very tall and has a high mph fastball. I watched video of him in highschool and read a lot about him. Some scouts say that if he were to go straight to the majors out of highschool, he would already have the best 12-6 curveball in the game. Like Barry Zito in his Cy young prime good. The problem is he was still growing and pitching like that as often as he did clearly injured him. I guess he bent his wrist too much too often. $ aside, I still think he should have taken the 40%. I’m happier about the fact that the Braves get 2 top 21 overall draft picks including a top 9 pick in a draft immediately following a season that they won the division though. Especially on such a young team. As a Braves fan, I’m not the least bit bitter and I hope he performs very well and comes back to the majors. This same thing happened with the Texas Rangers and R. A. Dickey. He took the reduced bonus. A Cy Young award and 10’s of millions of dollars later, look how that turned out for him.
Show Me Your Tatis
Why didn’t Matt McLain and J.T. Ginn file grievances against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers? They had just as much of a case to do so as Stewart did.
The first 1st overall picks made by Anthopoulos over the years
2009 – Chad Jenkins
2010 – Deck McGuire
2011 – Tyler Beede (did not sign)
2012 – The other DJ Davis
2013 – Phil Bickford (did not sign)
2014 – Jeff Hoffman
2015 – Jon Harris
Anyone else confident Carter Stewart will amount to anything?
Jack Z vs AA, who drafts worst?
Can’t speak on Jack Z. I can say AA wasn’t entirely bad and considering the scouting and development he inherited from ex-Oakland lackey JP Ricciardi, he didn’t do too bad. However, those very first picks list though….ugh…..
curious idea. i like the move in the sense of going directly to an upper level, while getting probably getting just as much if not more then he would get if he were drafted this time. curious how well he can do in the NPB right out of JuCo. the NPB seems to favor pitchers, but its not rookie or a ball by any means.
I actually don’t see any flaw with it.
1. Go immediately to AAA+
2. Make more money than you might see even before the age of 30, at 19
3. If you stink, you go home with your pockets lined
4. If you’re great, you go to MLB and are able to step into a big money deal
Please anyone from MLBTR feel free to correct me, this really does looks preferable to signing with a MLB team, especially if you are over 21 and probably could handle AAA right way, but MLB teams will never let you do that because they want your prime years and hold you down in the minors so theres less of a risk of dealing with non-peak performance.
Sure it looks great, but most players have the dream of playing the MLB, not waiting years in the Japan for the hope to do well and then get signed. Yes, it’s still extremely hard to make it through the minors, but if your goal is to get to the MLB, it’s the safer bet.
obviously he wants to get to the majors, but perhaps he makes out better this way. maybe more money up front, perhaps a quicker path, and the potential to be subject to a bidding war when his contract ends. (im pretty sure his residence in the US over Japan actually helps him herr, as he will not be subject to amateur FA rules) Theoretically, if he spends three years over there, he could make huge money by hitting FA at the age of 22.
I have no doubt he wants to get to the MLB, but the more direct route is going through the minors which is what most players would choose
Is it though? Playing in the NPB is effectively playing against AAA competition, and plenty of players that have jumped from the NPB to the MLB have done so on Major League deals.
If he performs in Japan, he’ll get a chance in the Majors here, just like if he performs in the Minors.
Yes, he will get the chance. But the MILB is the direct route to the MLB.
But you are forgetting one thing. The cost of living. How much is it going to cost him to live there? How much are the taxes there? How much will it cost to fly home or to fly family and friends there? Not to mention how taxing it would be to live abroad at the age of 18. He’s not going to play for 6 years and come home with $7 million.
I don’t believe he would be taked at the Japanese tax rate; as he works there but probably doesn’t become a citizen, right? According to the IRS, as long as he is a US citizen his worldwide income would be taxed at the US rate.
American players in Toronto are taxed at the Canadian rate, so why wouldn’t he be taxed at the Japanese rate? Players are taxed for state taxes based on where the game is played, not where they live. I think he would be taxed at the Japanese rate.
From the IRS website:
If you are a U.S. citizen or resident alien, the rules for filing income, estate, and gift tax returns and paying estimated tax are generally the same whether you are in the United States or abroad. Your worldwide income is subject to U.S. income tax, regardless of where you reside.
I have no idea why it would be different in Canada, unless somehow Canada isn’t considered “abroad”
“Your worldwide income is subject to U.S. income tax” But that doesn’t mean your income is not taxable by the host country as well. All that means is the US gets its cut too.
Because the cost of living in the US is so low and the US abolished taxes. Can’t imagine a 20 year old having the desire to leave the nest and experience living in a different culture. He should forget the bird in hand and take the two in the bush because if everything breaks right, he might start collection the sweet MLB minimum checks for four years after his team manipulates his service time.
All of those issues you raised still apply if he were to have stayed in the US. US has taxes and he still has to fly to get around and live somewhere. It’s not like he would have his $2 million in 6 years if he had signed with the Braves.
I agree – its an interesting pathway for a few select prospects.
I think Japanese baseball is pretty exciting, and I could see if you had an open mind and were interested in the cultural experience – this could be an awesome opportunity.
Odds of making the majors is slim for any prospect- this path allows for additional money and a chance to pitch in meaningful games much faster than minor league system. I don’t know anything about Stewart but for the right mindset I see this as an interesting idea.
Japan is very culturally territorial.
Yea, but he’s white, which means he’ll be fine. Japan loves white people. Just no one else.
This might be revolutionary as a way to bypass the outdated arbitration system in MLB.
What if in this upcoming draft, every 1st round and 2nd round pick just said “Give me the slot max or I’m going to Japan” ???
Wouldn’t work as they have a limit of foreigners per team in japan.
Auston Matthews was the first overall pick in the 2016 NHL draft. It was known he would be the first pick in that draft for a few years before that. Rather than play (basically for free) in junior hockey, he signed in Switzerland as a 17 year old.
He made a few million and played at a high level and still went first overall.
The question is can Stewart avoid the draft? Can he pick his team like Ohtani did in a few years?
If so, there is almost no downside to this move.
He will be able to avoid the draft. The club he plays for has 10 years of control. but they can put him up for MLB teams to bid on him. essentially, he’ll have the same opportunity as Ohtani
I wonder if this is some Kyler Murray effect where everyone wants more $$ upfront.
Murray’s situation was fairly unrelated and unique.
that’s a bold strategy cotton. we’ll see how it plays out for him.
STEWART SCORED! He wouldn’t have even sniffed the majors by being drafted out of high school within those 6 years plus he gets to enjoy a whole new culture! Good for him! Break the exploitative neocon capatilistic stranglehold!
laugh out loud…”break the exploitative capitalist stranglehold” by taking the guaranteed money. This isn’t about opportunity, Che, it’s about money. Guaranteed money. Lots of it. (My only hope is you were joking…if not, you have some learning to do)
hmm, if you’d asked me idve tried for $5 million over 3/4 years. i know he’ll still only be 25 then, but hitting the market at 21/22 would be much better. 3/4 years gives him time to prove he is playable in the NPB, then really distinguish himself. guess this might be safer though, but id still imagine incentives would have to be a part of this if he’s taking that money over 6 seasons.
if he’s playing well enough five years from now then he’s NPB team will just post him anyway, which is why any team probably would have insisted on a few extra years on the back end to make this feasible.
You also have to consider MLB’s feelings about this. For the player, it can be very beneficial. But for MLB, it can be very damaging. And the one that can be damaged the most is the Japanese League. If MLB feels that they are undercutting the MLB Draft by signing American teenagers, well they just might start doing that to Japanese teenagers. Treating Japan just like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
Asian culture is a lot more introverted than American culture. That’s why they have a limited number of foreigners on a roster. NPB teams would be ruined if MLB did that to them.
Seems like a big risk to take to sign one high school pitcher.
The difference is, Japanese players can make money in Japan playing baseball. That’s a luxury kids from the DR or Venuzuela don’t have quite so much. If the U.S. and Japan swapped more players I wouldn’t be sad either way but I don’t think there’s any poaching to be done.
Sounds like a smart man
Might want to give this one a few years before rendering it a smart move.
Love this move for this kid. Take the guaranteed money. Hopefully this opens doors for a lot of amateurs
Time for Boras to go international if he has not done so already.
I hope you like Japan. If not, gonna be a rough few years
I love it. I hope he’s the best player since… whoever and makes MLB pay through the nose when he returns. I’m all for this as it gives players more bargaining power. I think the top of the draft gets too much but since it’s ten dollars a beer and not going down ever, I’m all for the players wringing everything they can from teams.
Bye bye Carter. Enjoy Japan. Lol.