JULY 7: The “sense” is that Stewart will attend a junior college in Florida, not Mississippi State, Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs reports on Twitter. If that happens, Stewart will be eligible for next year’s draft, McDaniel adds.
JULY 6: The Braves and first-round draft choice Carter Stewart failed to put pen to paper in advance of today’s 5pm EST deadline, Jon Heyman of Fancred was first to tweet.
Stewart, a Florida high-schooler, entered the draft graded as one of the top eligible hurlers. He had dealt with a wrist injury late in the season, though it was not something that led to any expectations of a ding in his draft stock. Indeed, it seemed there was not much to worry about when the Braves took Stewart eighth overall.
Unfortunately, it seems that a closer look at the medicals has enhanced the concerns for the Atlanta organization. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that it was a “definite concern” for the Braves, noting that player and team never really were close on numbers entering the final signing day.
The eighth overall pick came with a $4,980,700 allocation. The Braves will only get a compensatory pick next year — at one slot lower than the existing selection (#9) — if they offered Stewart at least 40% of the slot value (i.e., $1,992,280).
The Braves kept their offer “a lot closer to the 40% threshold than to pick value,” according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link), which explains why a deal did not come together. But that also indicates that enough cash was put on the table to ensure that the club will get another top-ten selection next year. Stewart will presumably honor his commitment to Mississippi State, though there’s no clear indication yet as to his immediate future.
Question, do the braves get 2 first round picks next year, or just the compensation pick?
They will have 2 first round picks.
Astros drafted Brady Aiken 1-1 and didn’t sign him, next draft, they had 1-2 as a comp pick and drafted Bregman.
#FunFact
Nice name….big fan
Astros took a lot of crap for that one but they made the right call. Aiken, Rodon, and Koler (I think that was his name) were the consensus top3. None have had near the impact Bregman has had.
The one they should really take crap for is drafting Appel over Bryant. Imagine what that team would look like? Geez…
Why did the Braves offer 40% of the slot value? Anyone know how that works?
Anyone correct me if I’m wrong…but I’m assuming the medicals concerned them and they knew the threshold for the #9 pick next year was 40%, so they made an effort to sign him but still held the #9 pick in higher regard
Thanks for that info. I didn’t know that.
But also that really feels scummy. Feels like that kid never had a chance to get more than 40% of the slot value and now has to wait another year.
He has to wait three more years. This is the most common sort of unsigned first-rounder- the injury case. It does suck for the player but I don’t blame a team for not paying full freight on an already-hurt player.
The wrist injury was a major concern from the braves point of view. Because of that, they didn’t feel that the risk/reward associated with signing him at a higher price was worth more to them than the the 9th pick in 2019.
If he decides to go to Mississippi St then yes he has to wait until after his Junior year to get drafted. If he decides to go the Junior College he can be drafted the very next year.
Why not take the next healthy guy then?
Yeah so why pick him at all?
They don’t have access to him for medicals until working on a deal
It’s typical Alex Anthopoulos. Did that constantly in Toronto. You’ll get used to it.
What did AA do wrong?? It appears that the information the braves obtained from the post draft medical were the deciding factor in the braves offer. You don’t pay full price for a brand new car off the lot if you find out that its engine needs repair work before you sign the papers.
I definitely hate it because I wish the Braves and Stewart were able to make a deal, but I can’t knock the braves offer because I understand and agree with the logic behind it.
While I love the fact that the kid has the confidence to get on himself I think he made a huge mistake in doing so this time. If I’m not mistaken very few times has a player been drafted in the first round, failed to sign, and then later been drafted at a higher slot. It has happened yes, but there is a lot of risk involved and pitchers are injured all the time. I think the kid made a big mistake in not signing.
I mean, it’s not like it’s an elbow injury…how often are wrist injuries career altering?
They are certainly development-altering which is tough for a HS pitcher, and I’m sure you’ve heard of cascade injuries.
It exposes a flaw in the system. Team drafts, then decides to lowball for whatever reason (injury concern, real or perceived; penny-pinching; etc).
If no deal is reached, two things happen: 1. Team gets comp pick and 2. Player can’t get drafted until after junior year or has to go juco route, which is full of questions.
The team may not net a player for that pick but still receive a comp pick the next year. On the other hand, player can’t be drafted for another 3 years. If he goes juco, he can theoretically be drafted the next year, but he’s likely working with inferior coaches and trainers at the juco level.
Players, especially amateur players, are treated as chattel. This is just one of the clearest examples. The slot allotments already prevent draftees from engaging in a free negotiation for their services; the 40%/comp pick rule takes matters one step further by punishing draftees for failing to reach a deal while providing the club with a do-over pick the following year.
No offense, but ANY player being drafted should take all of that stuff in their decision making process. If they don’t weigh each and every factor then they are idiots.
While some may say “how are they supposed to know?” this is 2018, most every bit of info is a simple Google search away. Yes, agents may know the specifics better and more in depth, but there is no excuse for not knowing the basics. Agents work for their own benefit, it is the kid’s own life though. Ask questions and think things through.
No one punished him. Stewart decided his path himself and now has to deal with everything that results from his gamble.
While I respect Stewart and his faith in himself I firmly believe that he didn’t properly weigh all the risks and issues that can arise when he turned down the offer he had. Hopefully for Stewart’s sake things will work in his favor despite the odds against him.
Well two of the bones in the wrist also make up 2/3 of the bones in the elbow.
Also in this case you are dealing with a ligament issue. If you are this young and having issues with ligaments in your wrist, how do you think the ligaments in the elbow or shoulder are going to hold up?
Far too big a risk for a kid who will most likely be injury plagued.
Lets not forget that 3000 rpm spin rate and the affects on the wrist. I don’t want it for the kid, but TJS is in his future (my wrist led to me having TJS as well).
Not “what did he do wrong”, it’s simply a pattern by the GM.
Each team has a cap amount they can use to sign draftees with a slot value associated with each pick.Money saved on one pick can be used to give more to other lower slots to entice them to sign.
This is wrong. fail to sign a pick, lose the money associated with it.
I totally agree. Where exactly does that money go is what I wanna know.
” Where exactly does that money go is what I wanna know.”
Into next years draft pool. The Braves will have one of the fattest draft pools to spend beginning with the ninth overall selection.
Each draft slot has a cap for the year. You cannot carry over draft slot money from one year to the next, at least to my knowledge.
They do lose the money associated with the pick. When you fail to sign a pick, you lose the entire slot value
The money wasn’t the Braves. It was simply the allotment they were allowed to spend.
They lose it this year, but they get the #9 overall pick and the slot money that goes with it in the next draft. They also will get their regular 1st round pick, so they will have a substantially larger draft pool to spend next season.
Yes but if they sign they can use the spare cap money. He asked why not what would happen if he didn’t sign.
Lol the deadline was today. Rarely see that.
Don’t worry ATL fans, you’ll get compensated next year, and can assure you that pick will be a helluva a lot more easier to sign. However, You won’t get rewarded if you fail to sign the compensation pick rewarded, for first round signing failures
AA was known to do that in Toronto.
Phil Bickford? He was drafted 10th overall 2013 ($2,921,400 slot) seems high for a failure to sign.
Anyway, he was drafted 18th overall 2015 draft, and this time did sign for $2,333,800.
Bickford had some real issues with his medicals after he was drafted and Toronto got scared off. He’s pitched well in the minors since being redrafted in 2015
You mean getting suspended for drugs. He’s considered a bust.
I didn’t know about the drugs. just looked at the pitching record.
James Paxton. Compensation pick for not trading AJ Burnett at the deadline. Failed to sign. Luckily that gave the Jays a chance to draft Syndergaard. Still, missed signing.
Tyler Beede. Did not sign.
Bickford not signing turned into Max Pentacost. He was drafted while healing from Tommy John Surgery. He’s still in the minors and not performing. AA had no problem picking a catcher recovering from TJ surgery.
I can go to the 2nd and 3rd rounds but at this point it does not matter.
You do realize that Brian Bridges the Braves scouring Director has a lot of say so in these decisions and it’s not just AA. I don’t blame the Braves one bit for standing firm in not upping the offer. This kid has a killer spin rate and the wrist issues from it scared the Braves. Still this kid was confident enough to turn down 2 million dollars (life changing money) to take a gamble on himself. AA and the scouting department did nothing wrong
Damaged goods. He will regret not signing
Agreed. I think 40% of the Braves slot value would put him in early second round money. Even if he stays healthy his chance of falling below that pick range is better than his chances of staying ahead of it. So he is likely going to lose money. I am not really certain what people around him were telling him, but it seems he got some questionable advice.
They had to be telling him he’ll get more in a couple years, but as a pitcher that’s a total gamble. You can be a millionaire right outta high school, or you can HOPE to get more in a few years. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Somebody talked the kid into chasing the 2 in the bush.
Again, the agents work on commission. No way they’re advising kids to not take the money now. They know the risks too, and the agents get nothing if the kid blows out his elbow in college. The kids have the final say on whether or not to sign.
Totally agree.
HE now has 2-3 years to show he’s healthy and produce at a really, really high level to make it into the top 50ish again and roughly match his 40% offer. Doable, but not easy and thats just to get what he has already been offered once
He can be drafted next year. He is not going to MSU. He is playing JUCO ball.
May not be the WORST thing. This year’s draft class seemed to focus more on getting players to sign. As a new front office, it doesn’t hurt to recoup the extra first round pick which means a bigger bonus pool. I expect the scouting department to get tweaked. Going into next year’s draft they’ll have two first round picks, a front office and scouting department aligned, etc. Not to mention the cushion of being able to sacrifice a first round pick for a premier player this offseason. They have more options now going into next year to add talent despite the IFA restrictions.
Even before Today it was Reported he Wouldn’t sign,so This isn’t a big Suprise.The Young man totally f-up ,he will Never have the Chance he had until Today.He May prove me Wrong,but do to his Wrist,he will Probably never get 2 million dollars in bonus Money Again,terrible,terrible,terrible choice.
Watch, he will become the number 1 draft pick after deserving college baseball
Great for him if he does!
I’m sure the Os will pick him number 1 over all in a few years
Nolan Gorman is destroying rookie ball for the Cardinals.
But the destruction is with his bat and the Braves think pitching is “90% of the game”.
It’s the second first-rounder and Mississippi State commit who prefers Starkville over becoming a millionaire. One could, of course, believe in coincidences, if it wasn’t for the unrivaled desperation in MSU’s athletic department to finally win a College World Series championship and get a financial return for their investment in the costly remodeling of their ballpark.
In 2016 they hosted the University of Arizona for a Super Regional, when Arizona pitcher/3B Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox No. 12 prospect) hurled a shutout in game #1. Losing the contest, MSU cut the power around campus in the 8th inning with Dalbec on the mound.. Despite there still being enough daylight to complete the game, MSU coach John Cohen, now the school’s athletic director, refused to continue playing. Hoping to have iced Dalbec, MSU turned the lights back on 45 minutes later. However, Arizona had kept Dalbec loose in the bullpen and let him finish the shutout. The next day Arizona swept MSU and advanced to Omaha.
I wouldn’t put anything past these sleazebag programs in Mississippi (see Ole Miss’ NCAA violations and football postseason ban). They’re the armpit of the SEC, frantically trying to achieve at least some success. Paying recruits, as past events have shown, is one of their favored routines to gain an edge.
The system dictates that teams may offer a certain amount to every draftee. If a team goes out of its way to offer considerably less, but at least 40%, the circumstantial evidence is rather clear that the team does not want the player to sign and would rather take a comp pick next year.
System is gamed for the teams. Players don’t recoup additional value the way the teams do.
One anecdotal story means…absolutely nothing. Even if colleges are sleazy, which is certainly a matter of debate, the play the Braves made is worthy of derision in its own right
O am.a Braves fan and it would have been great had the Braves been able to sign him. With that said I don’t blame the Braves for refusing to offered him what he was asking for when he was dealing with a health concern. Honestly Carter he is the biggest loser out of all of this. He turn down a lot of money plus having the Braves paying for his surgery.
How do you draft a player 8th overall, knowing he has an injury, without prior medical examination?
Why not just draft someone without health issue.
Teams can’t do a full medical exam until the player is drafted. It’s tampering; so they have to look at the provided medicals. Then they can do a full workup after the draft, which is why these injury deferrments happen.
He’s going to need to go back to school and prove himself talented and healthy, particularly when he was apparently offered just enough to preserve the pick. The problem with this system is that it’s a temptation to use medical records as leverage-the team essentially labels you as damaged goods, drives down your price, and possibly your future as well. I wonder what the number of players are who go through this in a less public manner.
Almost none. We’d know about it based off what they signed for. Most guys sign around expectations, including over/under guys.
And almost no temptation to do this. You pick a guy because you want him. You lose all allotment if he doesn’t sign, so no benifit to not signing. If he does sign and you were lying about medicals though, he will hate your club. And if his agent gets involved, he’d probably have a good easily won lawsuit
It’s a bad situation for both sides, but an unavoidable one.
It’s a virtual guarantee that he knew something was wrong with his wrist. He chose to not make it known, as teams are unable to perform physicals on these guys until after they are drafted. Which means, he knew there was a chance this could happen, but also a chance that teams might not notice. From his perspective, it was probably worth the gamble – he was always projected as a top 10ish pick, which comes along with enough money to be set for life. Regardless of his future career, whether he bombs out after a couple seasons or retires while in A-ball.
When you look at it that way, understandable how things like this happen, given the way the system is put together.
And (as a Braves fan) I have no ill will towards Mr. Stewart, I hope he has a great career and everything works out. It’s just the way things go, bad luck for all involved, and the system does work in a “fail safe” in the event this occurs. The Braves will own the 2019 draft with their massive bonus pool (a lock to be in the top 3 even if they win the WS, and potentially #1). They are likely to also be helped by Nick Markakis’s offseason contract and the draft pick(s) that go along with it.
The author of this article is incorrect —- Carter is a Florida high school product, not Georgia.
He’ll probably end up at Chipola and they’ll win another national title
The Braves be dicks…..
Like the Astros did with Aiken. Of course that worked out…..
How can a high school kid turn down $2 million to play baseball? Even at 40 percent the offer is $2 million. $2 million. A decent number of these high school pitchers crash and burn. With these huge contracts floating around do we forget how easy life could be if you get $2 million at the age of 18?
And $2 million is still first round money for healthy players late in the 1st or compensation round. I would not pay “list” price for a damaged car, and the Braves didn’t want to pay slot rate for a damaged pitcher. I wish they could have worked it out… I think that would have been best for the Braves and Carter, too.
He should take the cash. Never know if a freak even can end his baseball career tomorrow and it’s not like we are talking chump change here. That’s a lot of money. As for the braves, I’m ultimately ok with us not getting him. Signing someone with health issues at such a young age is never a good thing
The best reason to take the cash and why he should have done it… is professional sports surgery and rehab (vs JUCO). The Braves would be dropping the dollar value of something like $250,000 on getting him back to health. While in JUCO world, the parents will have to step in to get superior care.
Maybe his family is already loaded and they don’t need the money. For all we know, his dad could own some of these Florida pill mill pain clinics and have more cash than anything close to what the Braves could offer lol. Who knows
This has ramifications beyond signing one kid. This last off-season, the Braves lost 13 minor leaguers because of stupidity on the previous GMs part. The Braves had a chance to fill a void with a better than average high school pitcher, then they fail to come to an agreement with him. Now you’re looking at 14 voids in the minors essentially.
That is stupid! One situation has nothing to do with the other, except they involve the Braves. They are not linked. All Braves decisions from here to the end of time are not linked to Coppy’s error and greed. It’s history… let it go. The Carter Stewart situation was independent of the punishment for Coppy’s errors.
Or they could have drafted Libertore and gave him more than what was offered to Stewart. Or Cole Winn. Both guys signed below slot value, Essentially mlkpol is not far off; when you lose that many minor leaguers do you replace them adequately? It may not show up now but 2 years from now? Maybe.
This could pay off with a nice pick next year. Maybe.
Yea the Braves lost 13 players and only like 7-8 of them signed with a new club showing that like 5 of them weren’t even worthy to begin with. Not to mention how bad some of those 7-8 players are playing right now. Kevin Maitan maybbecone ine of the bigger international busts from a scouts perspective in recent memory. The kid is way out of shape and isn’t hitting the ball. So what the Braves truly lost is almost nothing more than some fillers for the minor league lineups. Still has the number 1 ranked farm system in baseball. I’m not even close to worried about not signing Stewart. We have 10 pitchers in the minors that all have the potential to be frontline starters someday.
You really do not need to keep posting anything about this kid now that he hasn’t signed with the braves no one cares anymore