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Keuchel & Kimbrel Will Soon Be Free Of Draft Compensation

By Jeff Todd | May 10, 2019 at 8:15pm CDT

It’s funny how narratives shift. Not long ago, the drag effect of the qualifying offer was perhaps the single hottest topic in discussions of open-market dynamics. Now, broader forces have far eclipsed it in importance while rule changes have reduced the impact of the compensation system.

Let’s not ignore the interplay between the QO rule tweaks and the other CBA changes that have helped suppress free-agent earnings. The new qualifying offer rules represented a concession by the owners, but one that only really helped a limited range of players: those good enough to receive significant one-year offers from their existing clubs (most recently, the price was set at $17.9MM) but not so overwhelmingly appealing that the draft compensation was but a minor consideration. The burn was felt most by very good but somewhat flawed and/or older players. Reducing the magnitude of draft compensation helps, but those same players have gone on to be squeezed by other changes to rules and market dynamics.

In any event, the present market setting is one in which the qualifying offer factor is actually perhaps under-appreciated. Parting with draft picks for the right to pay top dollar to a free agent is still a tough pill to swallow for some teams. And there’s little doubt that the cost will be passed through to the player. As Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has put it, “we’ll put the value into an offer, but it wouldn’t stop us.” The inverse of that sentence might be a more accurate way of stating the prevailing approach.

As you’re no doubt aware if you’ve read this far, there are two remaining free agents who declined a QO this past winter: all-time-great reliever Craig Kimbrel (Red Sox) and former Cy Young-winning starter Dallas Keuchel (Astros). This is the age-31 season for both players. They each have had their hiccups; despite producing generally commendable results of late, neither was at his finest form in 2018. Draft compensation has surely played a role in their rather stunning failure to sign to this point of the season, though it’s far from the only or even the predominant factor.

Both Kimbrel and Keuchel decided against settling for short-term bailout offers that emerged when their markets didn’t. Once the season started, it became quite likely that they’d end up waiting until at least June before putting pen to paper. That’s because the June draft represents an important point on the timeline for the qualifying offer rules.

Per the express terms of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, draft compensation is only available when a qualified player signs on or before the day immediately preceding the Rule 4 draft. This year’s selections begin on June 3rd. MLBTR has confirmed that, unless Kimbrel and Keuchel officially sign (with full league and union approval) on or before 11:59pm EST on June 2nd, all draft compensation relating to those players will be nullified.

With just over three weeks remaining until that vanishing act takes place, it’s rather difficult to see a deal materializing in advance of the draft. If teams are still capable of emotional decisionmaking, this is perhaps the time of year when draft choices are likely to be valued most highly, as clubs are tantalizingly close to turning those selections into actual prospects they like. And if the value of the draft pick compensation is effectively drawn out of the salary the team would otherwise offer, as Anthopoulos suggests and as stands to reason, then it surely makes sense for the player to wait a few more weeks at this point.

A surprise is always possible, but it’s all but certain now that the reps for the K&K holdout hurlers are already chatting with teams about post-draft signing scenarios. What exactly does that mean? For one thing, the countdown could be on for these accomplished hurlers to finally begin pitching again. In some respects, the scene will shift; teams weighing a signing will also be considering trade-deadline alternatives that will require the sacrifice of young talent (and that may not be available for at least a few more weeks). The wild card here is the players’ asking prices; it remains to be seen if they’ll hold out for (and receive) significant, multi-year offers.

For the teams potentially involved, the situation is clear. The Red Sox will not receive the post-4th-round comp pick they would have otherwise, which would have landed after the 137th pick that they already hold. And the Astros will miss out on a choice after competitive balance round B wraps up; it’d have been the 79th overall selection. For all the prospective signing teams, they would hang onto the picks they’d otherwise have to punt to sign one of these pitchers. Putting a real price on those picks is a tricky thing to do — here’s one recent attempt — because any real-world valuation would include team context (such as other picks and negotiating opportunities) as well as the grades placed on the actual prospects that might be taken.

If a deal does formally come together before the draft for one of these players, it’ll likely be with the former team. That’s how it played out back in 2014, the other time we’ve seen players turn down qualifying offers and then languish on the open market. Stephen Drew signed in late May, but that was a deal with the incumbent Red Sox, who by that time already knew they’d miss out on compensation with the draft so close. Kendrys Morales waited until early June for draft compensation to clear, then landed with the Twins.

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53 Comments

  1. azbraves20

    6 years ago

    Come on Braves pony up the money for Kimbrel.

    1
    Reply
    • frank_costanza

      6 years ago

      Yes please do. I’d love to watch them get saddled with that contract!

      1
      Reply
      • jdgoat

        6 years ago

        Yeah nothing says “get saddled with a contract” like a one year deal that ensures Kimbrel never gets a QO again.

        2
        Reply
        • refereemn77

          6 years ago

          If he was willing to take a one year deal, he’d already be signed.

          1
          Reply
        • jdgoat

          6 years ago

          I don’t know teams are probably even more scared of losing the draft pick and slot no way if it’s only a one year deal.

          Reply
    • braves25

      6 years ago

      If it was spring training I would agree! At this point though it has to wait until after the draft. They cant lose a pick for a player that will not be able to help immediately.

      I like the trade market better at this point. Ken Giles, Amir Garrett, Smith or Watson could all help make the bullpen better now! The question is what do those teams want back?…

      Unfortunately/possible blessing they are probably going to give Winkler, Newk, and Jackson a few more opportunities to see if they can continue to lock down the 8 and 9. If those 3 plus Tomlin and Webb can continue to pich like they have of late they could turn out to be a decent bullpen. Especially if Minter can regain his form and confidence over the next 2 weeks or so in the minors!

      Can this bullpen use an upgrade? MOST definitely, however almost ever teams bullpen changes over the course of the season. Someone comes out of nowhere (Luke Jackson) because someone else gets hurt or struggles (Viz and Minter).

      Reply
      • bheath33

        6 years ago

        Ken Giles??? Stopped reading after that

        Reply
        • braves25

          6 years ago

          Era 1.56 and has 9 saves! Pretty sure that is an improvement that helps right now…Kimbrel will not be signed until after the draft and then will still need a few weeks to get game ready.

          Reply
        • JaysForDays

          6 years ago

          If you did, you clearly aren’t following baseball this year or last.

          2
          Reply
  2. costergaard2

    6 years ago

    Both of them picked a bad year, their walk year, to post so-so seasons. I would like both on my team, but at the right price. They are not Koufax and Gossage…

    3
    Reply
    • DarkSide830

      6 years ago

      indeed Kimbrel is not Gossage – he’s better

      1
      Reply
      • timw3558

        6 years ago

        seriously they were both great…but different era

        1
        Reply
    • Oxford Karma

      6 years ago

      Kimbrell is better than gossage.

      1
      Reply
      • wdw327

        6 years ago

        Post Season
        Kimbrall 0-1 , 7 Svs, 3.92 ERA, 25K, 12 BB, 1.258 Whip
        Gossage 2-1, 8 Svs, 2.87 ERA, 29K, 7 BB, .894 Whip

        Post Season numbers lean towards Gossage

        Reply
        • AlexB

          6 years ago

          Lean? Gossage has better stats in every measure you brought up.

          Reply
    • davidcoonce74

      6 years ago

      No, Koufax never made it to age 31 because he had to retire at 30 because his arm couldn’t even straighten anymore after throwing 1200 innings in 4 seasons. The Dodgers used him like a pack mule and threw him out as soon as he was broken. Baseball before free agency was a brutal business.

      Gossage was a good multi-inning reliever for the years he was active. He never cam close to a season in which he struck out three times as many batters as he allowed hits to, as Kimbrel has done, basically, every year of his career. Last year Kimbrel, in “down year” allowed 31 hits and K’d 96 batters. The year before he allowed 33 hits and struck out 126 batters (that’ about a 4/1 K/BB ratio). In 2011 Kimbrel allowed 27 hits and struck out 116 batters. He is a product of his era, yes, but what Kimbrel has done is staggering.; he has struck out 14.7 batters per 9 innings while allowing just 4.8 hits/9 . Gossage struck out 7.5/9 while allowing 7.4/9

      And Gossage was so popular and valuable and beloved that he played for 9 teams in his major league career. Everybody hated him. His post-career arrogance hasn’t helped.

      Closers can’t help their usage patterns, of course – the manager’s job is to manage the bullpen. But Kimbrel would have dominated Gossage in any era.

      4
      Reply
      • Jmking

        6 years ago

        Big difference between being able to throw max effort pitches every pitch knowing you are only going to pitch and inning versus multiple innings when you have to manage effort and navigate a full lineup. Gossage would have been even better in a specialized role like what closers enjoy today.

        Reply
        • davidcoonce74

          6 years ago

          So you are arguing that Gossage wasn’t giving max effort on every pitch? I saw him pitch in person. He was throwing as hard as possible to every batter he faced. He faced more of them, yes, but his results weren’t nearly as dominant as Kimbrel’s. Gossage threw 92-94, with a painfully max-effort delivery. As a Padres fan, I loved him in 1984, when I saw him. But his stuff was nowhere near Kimbrel’s.

          Reply
  3. hiflew

    6 years ago

    What I really don’t get is why MLB feels the need to take away draft picks in order to award draft picks. Can’t they just set up a system where you get awarded compensation picks for losing FAs without taking any away from a signing team like in the NFL? There is not a set number of draft picks. You could easily give the Astros or Red Sox an extra 2nd round pick without really upsetting anything.

    Although it’s also hard to justify teams being so ridiculously stingy with picks that have a far smaller success rate than either Keuchel or Kimbrel would have. A 4th rounder has a very small chance of equaling in their entire career numbers that either of those two is likely to contribute to a single year.

    It’s just a weird situation.

    4
    Reply
    • kenleyfornia2

      6 years ago

      Yeah the system used to be so bad. I remeber the Dodgers had to forefit a top 20 pick just for signing Orlando Hudson in 2009. It isn’t that ridiculous anymore but still forfeiting picks is why a lot of these guys dont have markets

      Reply
    • Oxford Karma

      6 years ago

      Kimbrell was drafted in the third round. keuschel in the 7th. So a better chance than you can think!

      Reply
      • JustOnePitch

        6 years ago

        Unless you’re thinking pretty small, dogma ate your karma holmes. It’s rare that a first round pick is blessed with the success of Kimbrell or Keuschel, let alone a later pick.

        1
        Reply
      • hiflew

        6 years ago

        And how many picks in Kimbrel’s third round and Keuchel’s 7th round didn’t make it out of AA? I was not saying it never happens, but in the 3rd round you have somewhere around a 10% chance of selecting a quality big league player and in the 7th round it drops to less than 5%. So yes, Jim Carrey, I am saying there is a chance.

        Reply
    • petrie000

      6 years ago

      The number of draft selections available each season is collectively bargained. So yes, there is actually a fixed number in a given season.

      The whole system is honestly dumb and out dated. It was meant as a way to help small market teams restock when everybody just assumed the best free agents would always go to big markets.

      Reply
    • refereemn77

      6 years ago

      I mean, it’s part of the collective bargaining agreement. The MLBPA agreed to this mess, and I suspect the owners had already run the projections and understood what the likely outcome would be – driving down salaries for players offered the QO.

      Reply
  4. Melchez

    6 years ago

    Would the Rays be a darkhorse for either of these two? They are trying to fend off the charging Yankees and they have had some pitching injuries. Amazingly, their bullpen only has one pitcher with a blown save… Roe with 2. They have 5 with at least one save and 3 with at least 3. Put Kimbrel as the closer and you would have an excellent bullpen. Slide Kuechel behind Snell, Morton and Glasnow. He would benefit from a solid defensive infield and pitcher friendly park. He wouldn’t need to be the ace, just a solid number 4.

    2
    Reply
    • FSF

      6 years ago

      I’d be stunned if the Rays signed them if only because it seems they are both still looking for long term contracts and I don’t see the Rays going even two years at the dollars it would take.

      1
      Reply
      • User 4245925809

        6 years ago

        Rays gave Longoria the type of AAV can imagine Kimbrel would require, other than that? last player can think of may have gotten that kind of dough from them as a FA would be Loney and then? 20Y ago Greg Vaughn.

        Point is, TB doesn’t give out anything but cheap skate FA deals.. period.

        Reply
        • therealryan

          6 years ago

          The Rays jjust gave Charlie Morton $15mm AAV on a multi year contract in December.

          Reply
        • malbuff

          6 years ago

          Given that both these guys’ value has dropped, might not one or both take a “cheap skate” one-year deal, to show they’ve still got it by helping a contender to the postseason, and thus maximize their value for 2020? If the Rays want to win NOW, and these guys want to max their value NOW, I see an opportunity here.

          Reply
  5. cowdisciple

    6 years ago

    Twins should be all in here. Door’s wide open.

    2
    Reply
    • refereemn77

      6 years ago

      I think the issue is that neither pitcher is going to be ready until July. Also, I don’t think Keuchel is really helpful to the team. I think Kimbrel might be, but it will all depend on how much the players are seeking.

      Reply
  6. Braves4Ever2025

    6 years ago

    If the Braves don’t sign Kimbrel and subsequently trade for at least one but preferably two solid relievers to join him this season is completely over and we’ll be in the exact same position this next offseason as we were last offseason. Except with far fewer relief options in the market available to explore and address our issue.

    Well done AA. You’ve literally backed yourself into a corner by refusing to spend when you should have because you were so worried you’d lose financial flexibility. A little ironic how it’s shaped up.

    1
    Reply
    • bravesfan

      6 years ago

      The most frustrating part about this season is being told this is the year and we have the financial flexibility to get what’s needed. The market was flooding with reasonable answers and it still has a very great option albeit a tad expensive. But the braves do absolutely nothing in regards to the biggest need and biggest game changers; our bullpen. Honestly we could have gotten 3 very good bullpen arms this winter at the cost of donaldson and definitely Kimbrel. It’s annoying

      2
      Reply
    • braves25

      6 years ago

      The fact is that AA is against the wall due to the international signing punishment the Braves are under. The only way the Braves can sustain long term success is by calculating EVERY decision, especially those that involve a draft pick. The Braves would have forfeited their 3rd pick, which would have been the 2nd rd pick they have for any of the top bullpen arms available. Most of which have struggled so far this season, so IMO AA made a great decision not to reach for those guys.

      Yes the Braves have financial flexibility this season, but NOBODY has met Kimbrel’s demands. So I don’t know why you would single out AA when literally no other team was willing to pay that amount either.

      Reply
  7. bobtillman

    6 years ago

    The Draft Choice compensation nonsense is just a dodge for the owners. Who wouldn’t in their right mind obtain a Kuechel or a Kimbrell in exchange for a guy who has about a zillion to one chance of matching either’s performance.

    Expect the draft to undergo a serious re-fit with the next CBA. Think about it; you spend about 3M a year for scouts, another 7M a year for bonuses. In return, you USUALLY get a “meh” MLB regular, 3 MLB roster fillers with WARs of zero, and 36
    warm bodies to fill minor league rosters.

    And that’s a GOOD year!

    I’m not sure how they’re going to adjust it, but adjust it they will. And they’ll convince the MLBPA they’re doing for the players.

    Alex in Atlanta has long noted that it’s the biggest waste of money in MLB right now. There’s very little bang for the buck.

    Reply
    • jdgoat

      6 years ago

      I think the bigger issue is the slot money that allows teams to go overslot on guys who would likely be drafted higher if it weren’t for their demands or luring them away from college.

      2
      Reply
      • refereemn77

        6 years ago

        Yes. It’s not just giving up the pick. It’s giving up the signing bonus money assigned for that slot. Teams put a very high value on that slot money as it gives them flexibility.

        Reply
    • Oxford Karma

      6 years ago

      Kimbrell – 3rd round. Keuschel – 7th round

      Reply
  8. bravesfan

    6 years ago

    Braves better get kimbrel or I’m gonna lose my mind! The penny pinching of a team that’s on the brink of being great (after being told we have financial flexibility) is absolutely infuriating.

    Don’t let LM and AA fool you. The money is there without mortgaging our future. In sports, in markets like these, when you spend money, your ROI is outstanding from a true financial aspect. We aren’t talking Harper commitment and money, we are talking very reasonable, industry set money

    2
    Reply
    • chippahawk

      6 years ago

      Well said Bravesfan.. What really is infuriating is to think where their record could and should be if the offseason was handled correctly and with common sense..
      AA was sent to the supermarket for a can of corn, potatoes, and carrots. He came back with a filet mignon for himself.

      Reply
  9. Strike Four

    6 years ago

    Not just Keuchel and Kimbrel, here’s the full list of unsigned FAs, comp pick or not. Have we seen the last of

    Danny Valencia (34)
    Brandon Phillips (38)
    Chase Headley (35)
    Jose Reyes (36)
    Denard Span (35)
    Austin Jackson (32)
    Chris B. Young (35)
    Jose Bautista (38)
    Evan Gattis (32)
    Matt Holliday (39)
    Bartolo Colon (46)
    Yovani Gallardo (33)
    Miguel Gonzalez (35)
    Phil Hughes (33)
    Dallas Keuchel (31)
    James Shields (37)
    Chris Tillman (31)
    Jim Johnson (36)
    Craig Kimbrel (31)
    Ryan Madson (38)
    AJ Ramos (32)
    Boone Logan (34)

    ?

    Reply
    • davidcoonce74

      6 years ago

      It is surprisong that Gattis didn’t get a look; no defensive value but we’ve alwys read about his “leadership” and he can hit a little. I am syrprised Jackson is so young, and Headley actually had a decent career, and was even still league-average or slightly better in 2017, but didn’t seem to want to play anymore. The rest of these guys aren’t much better than a a AAA guy, so not really a surprise none of them latched on.

      1
      Reply
    • hiflew

      6 years ago

      It’s very rare to have players get a splashy retirement ceremony (unless they happen to be Yankees). Most players don’t go out when they want to, they go out when the game tells them to. Even players that were superstar level at one point in their careers like Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Jose Bautista, and James Shields.

      Although I would bet at least 5 of those players (not counting Keuchel and Kimbrel who obviously will after the draft) will sign with someone’s bench later this season. Sort of like Holliday and Phillips last year.

      Reply
    • bigjonliljon

      6 years ago

      Hmmmmm…… 31 years old and above. At least 2 – that we know of – are asking for big bucks after a down year performance.
      Draft compensation may not be the issue here. Could it be that no team wants to meet the salary demands of these 2 after the results of last year. Teams are done paying for past performance with big bucks knowing the player they’re getting is not the same player. Let these 2 sit the year out and try again next year. See how that works for them

      Reply
  10. bjupton100

    6 years ago

    The Rays won’t spend that kind of money but Kimbrel and Keiuchel would solidify the pitching. I personally feel they need an elite bat more than anything. They’ll have a 40 man roster crunch and I’d package a couple bubble guys with Banda and Wendle for ??? I’m not sure of anyone I’d be willing to pay the price for, that would be available and a true force. If he ever cools off I would see about Merrifield and Mondesi for that matter. Merrifield seems like a faster version of Pham and I’d be willing to trade Adames as part of the trade for Mondesi. I doubt they’d let Mondesi go right now for anything we’d pay but Merrifield could be had for Wendle, and some lower ceiling guys.

    Reply
  11. CKinSTL

    6 years ago

    Well, once that nasty business with the draft pick is out of the way.. I’m sure teams will be lining-up to give Keuchel his $150mm+ contract.

    1
    Reply
  12. Col_chestbridge

    6 years ago

    One thing I’d like to know, do minor league deals trigger the compensation rules? Could a team sign one of them to a minor league deal with a June 5 opt out, to let them ramp up in AAA and then call them up after the compensation becomes a non issie?

    Reply
    • davidcoonce74

      6 years ago

      I would guess the league would veto a deal like that because it’s quite obvious what it’s doing, plus I can’t imagine Kimbrel or Keuchel would feel like riding the bus for no money for two months.

      Reply
  13. MC77

    6 years ago

    Phillies should be in on Kimbrel!

    Reply
  14. doxiedevil

    6 years ago

    I for one will be sick when I see Kimbrel as a Philly get a save against the Braves.

    So far ownership has just set back watching the team’s bullpen flounder around losing games.

    With real help Atlanta would be in first place and it is still not to late.

    2
    Reply
  15. its_happening

    6 years ago

    Atlanta is/was the perfect team to swoop in for both Kuechel and Kimbrel since their GM struggles to sign high draft picks, 1st round in-particular. Tells me it’s about the money regardless of what’s being said.

    1
    Reply
  16. AlexB

    6 years ago

    Kimbrel and Keuchel are like Harlots. Boras is pretty much Sugar Bear the Pimp. No one needs any of those guys.

    Reply

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