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Archives for July 2019

Yankees Place Luke Voit On 10-Day IL

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The Yankees announced today that first baseman Luke Voit is headed to the 10-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with an abdominal strain; the placement is retroactive to June 30th.

To take his place on the active roster, the club promoted first bagger Mike Ford. In other news, the club brought up southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. in place of righty Chance Adams, who was optioned back to Triple-A.

Voit has been sidelined for the past few days but had hoped to avoid an IL placement. It seems he’ll require at least a bit longer to rest than initially expected, though there’s no indication to this point that it’s a long-term malady. The AL East-leading Yanks have already weathered several other, more significant injuries without batting an eye.

Top Remaining Unsigned Draft Picks

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By the terms of MLB Rule 4(d)(4), the deadline for signing players selected in last month’s Rule 4 draft is July 12th at 5pm Eastern time. In most years, virtually all top draft choices agree to terms, but there are quite often one or more exceptions. Last year, for instance, the Braves failed to line up with eighth overall pick Carter Stewart.

With ten days to go, there’s still plenty of time. Several players only just wrapped up their collegiate seasons — particularly those that made it to the College World Series final between Vandy and Michigan. But if there’s to be a high-profile failure to reach agreement, it’ll come from among these, the highest picks who have yet to put pen to paper (through the third round):

  • (4) Marlins: J.J. Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt University ($6.66MM slot value)
  • (8) Rangers: Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech University ($5.18MM slot value)
  • (31) Dodgers: Michael Busch, 2B, University of North Carolina ($2.31MM slot value)
  • (35) Marlins: Kameron Misner, OF, University of Missouri ($2.10MM slot value)
  • (41) Rangers: Davis Wendzel, 3B, Baylor University ($1.81MM slot value)
  • (67) Yankees: Josh Smith, 2B, Louisiana State University ($976K slot value)
  • (74) Diamondbacks: Tommy Henry, LHP, University of Michigan ($844K slot value)
  • (77) Rockies: Karl Kauffmann, RHP, University of Michigan ($805K slot value)
  • (78) Dodgers: Jimmy Lewis, RHP, Lake Travis High School, Texas ($793K slot value)
  • (99) Rays: Shane Sasaki, OF, Iolani High School, Hawaii ($587K slot value)

2019-20 International Signing Period Opens Today

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The 2019-20 international signing period kicks off this morning, meaning that from now until next June 15, teams are officially able to begin signing amateur talents from countries outside of the United States and Canada. Prospects aged 16 and up (assuming they turn 16 by Sept. 1 of the current period) are eligible to sign minor league contracts with teams for signing bonuses that fall within the constraints of a league-allotted bonus pool.

Those looking to brush up on the top prospects this July 2nd class has to offer will want to look at the invaluable work put into the subject by Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, and Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. As ever, Badler provides an abundance of information on expected destinations/bonuses for the top free agents in the 2019-20 class; he has further details and scouting notes available here and here. Sanchez provides his own Top 30 with free scouting reports (and likely destinations). In addition to the above-linked preview, McDaniel and Longenhagen have scouting info on their top 40 prospects.

After all of that — here’s a quick primer on the specifics of the international free agency system.

Unlike the system that was in place from 2012-16, in which teams would routinely shatter their international bonus pools and take two-year signing penalties in exchange for one enormous haul of amateur talent, the system under the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement contains a hard cap that cannot be exceeded. Teams are still permitted to trade for up to 75 percent of their originally allotted bonus pool, however, and any team is free to trade away as much of its pool as it wishes. International pool allotments must be traded in increments of $250K — unless it includes the last remainder of a team’s pool.

Penalties from the previous international signing periods carried over with the new system, but those have all now run their course. There is one team that continues to face limitations on spending, for a different reason. The Braves continue to operate under significant long-term penalties as punishment for violating international spending guidelines. They’ll be limited to a hard cap of $10K per player in 2019-20 and will be stripped of half their league-allotted bonus pool in the 2020-21 period.

The Competitive Balance lottery that awards 14 teams with additional picks based on market size and total revenue also has an impact in international free agency. The teams that were awarded Competitive Balance picks in Round B (between rounds two and three of the draft) will have the largest bonus pools in 2018-19. Teams that were awarded selections in Competitive Balance Round A (between rounds one and two) will have the second-largest pools.

Beyond that, free agency itself can have an impact. Teams that sign players who have refused a qualifying offer (QO) are subject to forfeitures in their international bonus pool in some instances. Specifically, a club which exceeded the luxury tax threshold in the previous season and also signs a QO free agent surrenders $1MM of its international pool in the following period. Teams that did not exceed the luxury tax but also did not benefit from revenue sharing will forfeit $500K of international pool for each QO free agent signed.

So, who has what to spend (beyond the aforementioned Braves)? 2019-20 international bonus pool amounts were first reported by Baseball America’s Ben Badler back in early April. Because Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel waited to sign until after the recent Rule 4 draft, the amounts remain the same:

  • The Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Indians, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, and Royals have the highest availability at $6,481,200.
  • The Athletics, Brewers, Marlins, Rays, Reds, and Twins are next at $5,939,800.
  • A dozen teams (Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, Yankees) can spend $5,398,300.
  • The Dodgers and Phillies are capped at $4,821,400, while the Nationals are limited to $4,321,400.

This post was adapted from a prior post written by MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

Astros Reportedly Interested In Matthew Boyd

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Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd will be one of the most coveted players available leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, owing to his performance and affordable team control. Contenders aplenty will call the Tigers about Boyd in the next few weeks, if they haven’t already. Count AL West-leading Houston among the clubs interested in the 28-year-old, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. To this point, though, the Astros have not shown a willingness to trade high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker for Boyd, according to Morosi.

Tucker would give the offensively challenged Tigers a much-needed player to build around in the field. Their interest in Tucker goes back multiple years, Morosi notes, as the Tigers tried to acquire him from the Astros when the teams made a deal around right-handed ace Justin Verlander late in the 2017 season. Almost two full years later, Tucker remains a potential star in the making for the Astros. MLB.com ranks the 22-year-old as the game’s 10th-best prospect and notes he has high-average, 25-home run upside. Tucker has already slammed 24 homers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this year, moving past a slow start to log a .274/.348/.606 line (123 wRC+) in 330 plate appearances with Triple-A Round Rock.

Although Tucker posted disastrous production in his 72 major league-PA debut a year ago, it’s clear the Astros aren’t going to let that define him. If the team keeps Tucker, he could follow another excellent Astros prospect, slugger Yordan Alvarez, as an in-season difference-maker in 2019 or perhaps become a regular next year.

Speaking of 2020, the Astros are set to head into then with questions in their rotation. Verlander and Brad Peacock will be back, Lance McCullers Jr. should return from 2018 Tommy John surgery, and any of the Astros’ starting prospects might step up to claim a rotation spot. Gerrit Cole will have a chance to leave for a mega-deal in free agency, however, and Wade Miley and Collin McHugh could also depart. Boyd would help cover for their losses, and he’d do so at an affordable price. He’ll make his second of four potential trips through arbitration during the upcoming winter, when he’ll earn a raise over his relatively negligible $2.6MM salary.

While Boyd could make a long-term impact for the Astros, they could also use a complement now to slot in with Verlander and Cole atop their rotation. Boyd arguably didn’t look up to the task in June when he allowed 19 earned runs and 10 homers in a five-start, 29-inning stretch. He still put up 41 strikeouts against five walks during that span, though, and boasts a more-than-respectable 3.72 ERA/3.57 FIP through 101 2/3 frames this season. Furthermore, with a stunning 11.42 K/9 against 1.77 BB/9, Boyd’s K/BB ratio ranks fifth among starters.

The Tigers are within reason to want a prospect-driven haul for Boyd, and the Astros just may be the ones who give it to them sometime this month. However, if Detroit’s dead set on getting Tucker as part of a Boyd package, it appears the club will have to look elsewhere.

Indians’ Nick Sandlin Out For Season

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Indians right-handed relief prospect Nick Sandlin is out for the season with a forearm strain, according to the team’s official Tribe Insider Twitter news feed.

Forearm troubles limited the 22-year-old Sandlin to 26 1/3 innings between the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season. When Sandlin was healthy enough to pitch, the 2018 second-round pick from Southern Mississippi held his own.

Making his debut at the minors’ top level, Sandlin gave up a mere five hits and racked up 11 strikeouts over nine innings with Columbus. A pair of home runs and seven walks helped lead to four runs against, however. To this point, Sandlin owns a 2.68 ERA with an impressive 13.2 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 50 1/3 minor league frames.

At the outset of 2019, MLB.com (No. 18) and FanGraphs (No. 23) each placed Sandlin among the Indians’ 30 best prospects. The more bullish outlet, MLB.com, suggested Sandlin could have made a case for a major league promotion as early as this season. Now, though, that’ll have to wait until at least 2020.

Nationals, Anthony Rendon Not Progressing Toward Extension

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The underrating of Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon has finally subsided a bit in 2019. The 29-year-old, owner of a 29.1 fWAR since his 2013 debut, finally made his first All-Star Game this season. All he had to do was hit .311/.398/.630 (158 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 299 plate appearances to earn a spot on this year’s National League roster.

Lack of All-Star nods aside, teams recognize the value of Rendon, who’s not far from reeling in a nine-figure contract. Aside from Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole, Rendon is hands down the majors’ preeminent player scheduled to reach the open market this winter. The Nationals would like to prevent Rendon from ever shopping his services around the game, of course, but it’s up in the air whether they’ll be able to stop the Scott Boras client. While both sides have expressed interest in continuing their partnership past this season, no agreement has materialized yet.

Now, four months before free agency, “there has been little to no progress” toward a long-term contract, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. Asked about negotiations, Rendon told Dougherty they’re “out of my hands,” though he did suggest he’s still amenable to staying in D.C.

Back when the Nationals and Boras were discussing a Rendon deal a few months ago, the player’s camp used Astros second baseman Jose Altuve’s pact as a starting point, according to Dougherty. Altuve signed a a five-year, $151MM extension going into 2018, when he was a soon-to-be 28-year-old coming off an AL MVP- and World Series-winning season. He was also a five-time All-Star then. The Nationals didn’t place a similar value on the less decorated Rendon, per Dougherty. Unsurprisingly, as Dougherty notes, the seven-year, $234MM guarantee the Rockies gave their own standout third baseman, Nolan Arenado, entering this season didn’t do anything to bridge the gap between the Nationals and Rendon. However, should the two sides resume talks in earnest, Dougherty suggests Rendon’s side would likely push for an Arenado-esque deal.

Barring a massive change in course over the next few months, Rendon seems almost certain to become a free agent after the season. In the process, he’d likely follow in Bryce Harper’s footsteps as the second Nats superstar to leave in as many winters. The Nationals, even though they were treading water last summer, decided against parting with Harper before either of the summer trade deadlines. They ended up losing the bidding for Harper to the Phillies in the offseason and only getting a draft pick after the fourth round as compensation for the qualifying offer recipient.

As was the case a summer ago, the Nationals are hanging around the .500 mark as they decide how to proceeded with a key free agent. The club has surged since a nightmarish start, putting it at 42-41 and just a game and a half out of a playoff spot. Assuming the Nationals stay on this path, it’s hard to envision them selling Rendon for a package of young talent this summer. If Rendon does leave Washington in the coming months, it seems likely to occur in free agency, when the team could land better compensation for the eventual QO recipient’s departure than it did Harper’s. Should the Nationals stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold through this season – which they’ve done by a couple million dollars to this point – they’ll get a pick after Competitive Balance Round B for Rendon’s exit.

Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Needs

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Chicago was on the wrong end of an 18-5 embarrassment against Pittsburgh on Monday, a defeat that dropped the Cubs to 45-40. They’re now 16-22 since they sat a season-best 11 games over .500 on May 22. Although they’ve underwhelmed for a little over a two months, the Cubs are just a game back in a National League Central division mired in mediocrity. With the July 31 trade deadline coming up, Chicago predictably has the mindset of a buyer.

General manager Jed Hoyer shed light on a couple needs the front office is looking to address this month, saying Monday (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times):  “Certainly providing some depth offensively is something we’ll look at carefully. And looking at left-handed relief is something we’ll do. Kyle Ryan’s doing a great job, and we’ve used him a lot. [Mike Montgomery} is not your prototypical left-on-left guy; we use him more for length. So that’s something to look at.”

Regarding the former, Wittenmyer points to second base as a position the Cubs could attempt to improve in the coming weeks. They’ve gotten dreadful offensive production at the keystone from primary options Daniel Descalso and Addison Russell, though the multi-positional David Bote has logged decent numbers and fellow utilityman Ben Zobrist could return from the restricted list later in 2019. Zobrist has been out since early May, and he didn’t perform well even before going on leave to deal with personal matters. The Cubs have yet another potential in-house option in Ian Happ, though the 2017-18 staple has struggled since a preseason minor league demotion and hasn’t earned a recall as a result.

If the Cubs do seek a second baseman from outside this summer, they might not find a vast selection. The Royals’ Whit Merrifield is a trade candidate, but they may value him more than another team. Ex-Cub and current Marlin Starlin Castro, the Mariners’ Dee Gordon and the Giants’ Joe Panik represent potentially on-the-move veterans, though they’re all enduring terrible seasons. The Orioles’ Jonathan Villar, the Blue Jays’ Eric Sogard and the Reds’ Derek Dietrich (if they deal him, let alone to a division rival) stand out as a few other second basemen who are enjoying better seasons and could find new homes this month. There’s hardly a slam-dunk answer among that trio, however.

Meantime, while the Cubs just signed proven closer Craig Kimbrel, his addition did nothing to address their lack of lefty options. Ryan has been good, especially against same-handed hitters, but as Hoyer mentioned, Montgomery’s not a traditional late-game reliever. Beyond that, Montgomery has struggled mightily this year. While the Cubs do have veteran southpaw relievers in the minors in Randy Rosario, Tim Collins and Brian Duensing, there’s not a confidence-inspiring hurler in the group.

The question is: Whom could Chicago acquire to solve its problems? The Indians’ Brad Hand is the obvious name, but even if they were to trade the ultra-valuable closer, the Cubs would have trouble parlaying a below-average farm system into a winning bid. The same applies to the Pirates’ Felipe Vazquez, whom they seem inclined to keep. The Nationals’ Sean Doolittle and Giants southpaws Will Smith and Tony Watson could also be difficult to obtain. The Pirates’ Francisco Liriano and the Royals’ Jake Diekman are among other possible options for the Cubs, though the former may be an unrealistic target if the Buccos plan to push for an NL Central crown.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted a couple weeks ago, money figures to play an important role for the Cubs around the deadline. The team had an understated offseason because it claimed it was tapped out financially. The Cubs have slogged through a so-so campaign since then, though, and they seem to realize they’re in need of outside aid with the deadline approaching.

Report: Red Sox Plan To Use Nathan Eovaldi As Closer

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The Red Sox moved on from closer Craig Kimbrel in the offseason, but they still haven’t replaced the potential Hall of Famer with a single game-ending stopper. Instead, the club has gotten multiple saves apiece from Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes and Brandon Workman during a 2019 season that hasn’t gone nearly as well as its 2018 World Series-winning campaign.

With the July 31 trade deadline coming up, the Red Sox are candidates to acquire an established closer for the stretch run, but it appears they’re primed to turn to a more unconventional in-house solution to succeed Kimbrel. They’re planning to use starter Nathan Eovaldi as their closer when he returns from the injured list, Tom Caron of NESN reports.

While the right-handed, hard-throwing Eovaldi was supposed to be a key part of Boston’s rotation this season, injuries have prevented that from happening. After Eovaldi came over in a 2018 trade with the Rays and helped the Red Sox to a title, they brought him back on a four-year, $68MM contract in the winter. Since then, though, the team has received just four starts and 21 innings of 6.00 ERA/7.10 FIP ball from him. Eovaldi underwent elbow surgery April 21 and then suffered a setback June 9 when it looked as if he was nearing a return.

Now, with just a couple months left in the season, the Red Sox seemingly believe they’d be better off deploying Eovaldi in short, game-ending stints than long outings upon his return. As Caron notes, they’d have the benefit of getting Eovaldi back sooner because he wouldn’t have to stretch out to slot back into their rotation. It’s still in question when exactly he’ll make his way back to the majors, however. Moreover, moving him to the bullpen wouldn’t solve the team’s issues at the back of its starting staff.

A full-time relief role is foreign to Eovaldi, who has made 152 of 160 major league appearances as a starter. The hope for the Red Sox is that the move would help stabilize an oft-maligned bullpen, a unit the hated Yankees humiliated over the weekend in London. The Yankees now hold an 11-game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East, meaning Boston’s best hope to return to the playoffs may be via wild card. The Red Sox are two back of a spot, though, and with owner John Henry seemingly reluctant to spend on outside reinforcements, the club may be prepared to try its luck with Eovaldi in lieu of a bullpen market with plenty of proven commodities.

Latest On Padres’ Kirby Yates

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Padres closer Kirby Yates has come up as a speculative trade candidate as Major League Baseball nears its July 31 deadline, but don’t count on the right-hander going anywhere. Yates is likely to stay a Padre “barring an unforeseen haul,” Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports (subscription link).

Yates would no doubt bring back a substantial return, something the Padres unsurprisingly would want for him. However, it’s debatable whether the Padres should seriously consider dealing him this month. At 42-41, they’re finally making real progress in the standings and have an actual chance to break a 12-year playoff drought this year. San Diego’s just a game and a half back of a wild-card spot in a crowded National League field, and a decent portion of its success has come on account of Yates.

General manager A.J. Preller has been something of a wizard when it comes to claiming relievers on waivers. He first grabbed Brad Hand from the Marlins in April 2016 and then landed Yates from the Angels in 2017. Hand turned into a stud for the Padres, though they were in the throes of a rebuild and weren’t able to take advantage of his brilliance in the win-loss column. The club flipped a post-breakout Hand to the Indians last June as part of a deal for young catcher Francisco Mejia, whom it hopes will be its long-term answer behind the plate.

Just as the Padres picked up a haul for Hand last year, they’re in position to hold out for a Godfather offer for Yates this season. The 32-year-old has mimicked Hand in going from castoff to star in a Padres uniform. While Yates was tremendous in 2018, he has been even better this season, having logged a ridiculous 1.27 ERA/1.33 FIP with 14.46 K/9, 2.29 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent groundball rate over 35 1/3 innings. Considering those numbers, it’s no surprise Yates has been close to automatic at the end of games. He leads the majors in saves (27) and has blown just one opportunity.

The Padres see the brilliant Yates as someone who could help them return to prominence this season and in the near future – at an affordable price, no less. He’s making a little over $3MM this year and comes with another season of arbitration eligibility. At the same time, though, Yates’ age, lack of long-term control and the volatility of relievers are all reasons for the Padres to consider cashing him in over the next few months. It could be an agonizing decision for Preller.

A Trade That Is Working Out For The Marlins

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The Marlins have been roundly criticized for trades in recent years, deals that have come thanks in part to a desire to cut payroll. Outfielders Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna, second baseman Dee Gordon and catcher J.T. Realmuto are all prominent players the rebuilding Marlins, stuck in a soon-to-be 16-year playoff drought, have traded away since the end of the 2017 season.

While the Marlins’ decisions since co-owner Derek Jeter took the reins in 2017 haven’t come without protests, at least one of the trades they’ve made under him is paying significant dividends at the MLB level.

In November ’17, a few months after the former Yankees shortstop took the Marlins’ reins, his new team seemingly took advantage of his previous franchise. Miami acquired left-hander Caleb Smith and first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper from New York for right-handed pitching prospect Mike King and $250K in international bonus pool money. The Yankees did so in part in an effort to pad their offer to then-free agent Shohei Ohtani, but he ultimately signed with the Angels.

Now, with the World Series-contending Yankees on the hunt for another credible starter, the current version of Smith would fit into their rotation. But Smith, now 27, didn’t get much of a chance with the Bombers. A 14th-round pick of the Yankees in 2013, Smith reached the majors for the first time in 2017 – the season before the trade – and struggled over 18 2/3 innings. Since then, though, Smith has performed like a legitimate major league rotation piece for the Marlins. Dating back to 2018, he has pitched to a 3.83 ERA/4.09 FIP with 10.67 K/9 against 3.33 BB/9, albeit with an awful 28.7 percent groundball rate, in 143 1/3 innings. Among starters who have thrown at least 140 frames since last year, Smith ranks 15th in strikeout rate.

Although Smith has been on the injured list since June 7 with a hip problem, teams still figure to approach the Marlins with interest in him going into the July 31 trade deadline. However, the Marlins don’t seem willing to trade Smith, who won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2023 campaign.

The Marlins may have stumbled on a long-term piece in Smith. The same holds true for Cooper, who comes with the same amount of control as Smith. Cooper, a sixth-rounder of the Brewers in 2013, went to the Yankees in July 2017 in a deal for now-Cardinals reliever Tyler Webb. Cooper didn’t look like much more than the potential right-handed side of a first base platoon at the time, and injuries limited him to fewer than 100 plate appearances between the majors and minors last season. This year, though, Cooper’s taking advantage of his chance on a woeful Miami team.

Although the Marlins rank second to last in the majors in runs, their problems haven’t been Cooper’s fault. The 28-year-old has easily been their best hitter, in fact. He’s off to a .317/.383/.488 start (134 wRC+) with seven home runs across 183 plate appearances in his first extensive major league experience. Whether Cooper can keep it up is the question.

The bad: Cooper’s .388 batting average on balls in play is nowhere near sustainable, nor will 35 percent of his fly balls keep leaving the yard. Likewise, it’s concerning that Cooper’s hitting ground balls upward of 55 percent of the time, especially considering he’s hardly a speed demon. His 16.3 percent fly ball rate ranks last among hitters who have totaled 180-plus PA this year. That isn’t necessarily a death knell to his production, granted, as the great Ohtani ranks just two spots better. Cooper’s also having immense difficulty against left-handed pitchers, oddly enough. While he has smacked righties to the tune of a .400 wOBA, southpaws have held him to a .298 mark.

In more encouraging news, Cooper’s strikeout, walk and contact rates are all hovering around average. Better still, Statcast indicates Cooper’s expected slugging percentage (73rd percentile), hard-hit percentage (75th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (83rd percentile) and expected batting average (95th percentile) are all good to exemplary. His .371 xwOBA is essentially right in line with a .376 wOBA that ties him with Max Kepler and Yoan Moncada. All of that suggests Cooper will keep making an impact so long as he continues making contact.

At 32-50, this hasn’t been a victory-laden season for the Marlins, but you take the wins where you can. And it looks as if the team prevailed on its end of this trade with the Yankees, a club so loaded that they can get away with letting go of useful contributors without getting a lot back. The Marlins aren’t as fortunate, but it seems they landed a pair of quality pieces in Smith and Cooper.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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