2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

We last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class at the end of April.  No extensions have been signed since then, but otherwise there’s plenty of movement in the rankings.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power. To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.

1.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole maintains his spot atop this list, earning a second consecutive All-Star nod and cementing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game.  We haven’t seen a starting pitcher sign a seven-year deal since Stephen Strasburg inked his $175MM extension in May 2016.  The largest contract signed by a starter remains David Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal from December 2015.  The way free agency has been trending, it’s difficult to say whether Cole can reach the $200MM heights of Price, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke.  For more on Cole’s free agency, click here.

2.  Anthony Rendon.  In the midst of his best offensive season yet, Rendon was finally voted into the All-Star game by his peers, though he was unable to participate.  Rendon quietly keeps putting up six-win seasons as the Nationals’ third baseman, and he’s on the cusp of a huge contract.  Rendon’s agent Scott Boras and the Nationals discussed an extension this month, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, but Boras suggested the ball is in the club’s court.  A six-year deal could be a reasonable goal.

3.  Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner is adding another fine season to his resume, if a bit homer-prone.  It’s shaping up to be his first three-win season since 2016.  He’s one of baseball’s most likely trade candidates this month, though the Giants are complicating matters by playing well of late.  San Francisco is only three games out of the Wild Card, and if that holds up over the next two weeks, I can see the club holding onto him.  That’s relevant to this post in that the team would saddle him with a qualifying offer in that case, reducing his earning power.  In such a scenario, an extension with the Giants could begin to make sense.

4.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler’s spot on this list is precarious, as the 29-year-old righty recently landed on the IL for shoulder fatigue.  The timing of the injury gives scant time for Wheeler to re-establish his health in advance of the July 31st trade deadline, and also stings from the pitcher’s standpoint if it leads to a qualifying offer after the season.  Mike Puma of the New York Post suggests a qualifying offer from the Mets “seems unlikely” for Wheeler, but I think if he pitches reasonably well to close out the year, he’ll get one.  Though Wheeler’s ERA is up to 4.69, he’s demonstrated skills that typically lead to something closer to 4.00.

5.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez has the ability to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract after this season.  He owns a solid 129 wRC+ to date, though that’s short of the lofty standard he set in years prior.  As a DH who turns 32 in August, I don’t believe Martinez would do much better than $62.5MM on the open market, but his earning power still secures a spot on this list.

6.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman can opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract after the season, and there’s a decent chance the Yankees’ closer exercises that right.  The Yankees could also get out ahead of the situation by adding, say, an extra year and $20MM to the deal.  But Chapman turns 32 in February, and the Yankees may be content to let him leave even after another excellent season.  Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal from December 2017 could be a target for Chapman if he hits the open market.

7.  Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Ryu’s 1.97 ERA in 15 starts last year seemed impossible to beat, yet this year his ERA sits at 1.78 and he started the All-Star Game for the NL.  The 32-year-old lefty has walked a mere 2.5% of batters faced this year, best in baseball.  Though Ryu has not pitched 150 innings in a season since 2014, his injuries have not involved his arm or shoulder following his September 2015 elbow debridement procedure.  If Rich Hill can get three years and $48MM heading into his age-37 campaign, it stands to reason that Ryu can get something similar heading into his age-33 season, particularly since he’s ineligible for another qualifying offer.

8.  Marcell Ozuna.  Ozuna is having a respectable bounceback season for the Cardinals, with a 118 wRC+ in 326 plate appearances.  However, he’s a bat-first left fielder and is currently on the IL with multiple finger fractures.  Ozuna will be just 29 in November, but he won’t be hitting the same market that saw Justin Upton snag a five-year, $106MM extension in November 2017.  Ozuna also may come with a qualifying offer attached, and seems like a player who could face a difficult free agency.

9.  Jake Odorizzi.  A new entrant to this list, Odorizzi made his first All-Star team this year and owns a 3.06 ERA through 94 innings.  30 in March, he should be in line for a healthy contract with a strong second half.  However, he may be saddled by a qualifying offer and could fail to reach the new standard of four years and $68MM set by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas.

10.  Yasmani Grandal.  Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM during the offseason before signing a one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee.  He’s matching last year’s excellent offense thus far and won’t have to contend with a qualifying offer this time, and should come out ahead on the gamble.

Honorable mentions: Stephen Strasburg (can opt of remaining four years and $100MM, Kenley Jansen (can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM), Josh Donaldson, Yasiel Puig, Didi Gregorius, Nicholas Castellanos, Will Smith, Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, Mike Moustakas

Since we last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class, seven more potential free agents came off the board: Chris Sale, Paul Goldschmidt, Xander Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, Matt Carpenter, Khris Davis, and Ryan Pressly.  This came after Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Aaron Hicks, and Nolan Arenado had already decided to eschew free agency.  Meanwhile, pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are still without teams, serving as a warning for those thinking of testing the market.

In theory, the open market should always generate the best offers, even if the potential loss of a draft pick enters the equation.  Still, for many players it isn’t worth enduring a potentially brutal free agency process in an attempt to squeeze out that last $20MM at the risk of a Keuchel/Kimbrel debacle, when you’re signing for generational money regardless.  That’s why this list keeps getting less and less impressive each time we do it.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power.  To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.

1.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole jumps to the top of this list simply by virtue of the Red Sox locking down Sale and Bogaerts.  Cole, 28, has been homer-prone in his first six starts, but it’s really just one rough outing in Texas that has thrown off his ERA.  Sale is a comparable worth considering.  Sale’s new contract takes him through the age of 35, one year short of David Price, Max Scherzer, and Jon Lester and two years short of Zack Greinke.  Cole’s argument is that he, too, should require a commitment through age 35, which would necessitate a seven-year deal.  For all that went wrong for free agents in the 2018-19 offseason, Patrick Corbin still got a strong six-year contract with a shorter track record than Cole.  In the end, Cole needs a good old-fashioned bidding war to develop, and teams have become increasingly reluctant to enter into those.  Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote on March 22nd that the Astros were discussing extensions with both Cole and rotation-mate Justin Verlander, and shortly after that they inked Verlander to a two-year, $66MM extension.  I’d say that decreases the chances of the Astros extending Cole.

2.  Anthony Rendon.  Rendon, 28, got off to a blazing start this year for the Nationals before a Jose Urena fastball struck his elbow on April 20th and ended a 17-game hitting streak.  He’s played in one game since that HBP but seems to have avoided significant injury.  Jose Altuve’s five-year, $151MM extension with the Astros, signed about a year ago, lines up well with Rendon.  Nolan Arenado’s deal further cemented the idea that teams are mostly willing to pay through age 34 rather than 35.  The x-factor might be Paul Goldschmidt, a player perhaps inferior to Rendon who was extended through age 36 by the Cardinals.  So look for Rendon to try for a six-year deal, though he could end with five.  The last we heard on extension talks with the Nationals was from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman on April 18th, who tweeted that “there’s believed to be a decent-sized gap remaining” between the two sides.

3.  Marcell Ozuna.  Ozuna, 28, fell short of expectations last year after the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins.  It’s possible shoulder soreness was to blame, with Ozuna undergoing surgery to address the issue after the season.  The shoulder doesn’t seem to be affecting his hitting early on in 2019, as Ozuna has 10 home runs in his last 79 plate appearances.  With a season more like Ozuna’s 2017 campaign, he should have a good chance at a five-year deal.  It’s worth noting that the three potential free agents currently topping this list are all clients of the Boras Corporation.

4.  Madison Bumgarner.  Despite a 4.30 ERA across six starts, Bumgarner’s early results for the Giants have been promising.  After last year’s career-worst walk rate, he’s issuing free passes to a career-best 3.3% of batters in the small 37 2/3 inning sample.  A vintage 200 inning campaign from Bumgarner should set him up nicely for a strong four-year deal in free agency.  He’ll also be one of the best trade chips on the market in July, and a trade would remove the qualifying offer issue that has partially plagued Keuchel.

5.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler, 29 in May, has come on strong in his last three starts after a seven-walk outing on April 7th.  The hard-throwing righty is now four years removed from Tommy John surgery, though he did go two and a half years between MLB starts as he recovered.  The goal has to be a five-year deal through age 34, but he may have to settle for four.  It’s all about staying healthy for these next 25 starts.  The Mikolas/Nathan Eovaldi deals, at four years and $68MM, could be a marker for Wheeler.  Unlike Eovaldi, Wheeler may be dealing with a qualifying offer.

6.  Didi Gregorius.  Gregorius is currently recovering from October Tommy John surgery.  His recovery is going smoothly, though there’s no public timetable on his return.  In the meantime, it’s mostly been Gleyber Torres holding down the fort at shortstop for the Yankees after Troy Tulowitzki strained his calf on April 3rd.  With Bogaerts off the board, Gregorius will be the best available shortstop if the Yankees don’t lock him up prior to free agency.  A four-year deal seems plausible if he comes back strong, though Gregorius will likely receive a qualifying offer.

7.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez has been one of the game’s best hitters over the last two years.  He’s off to a strong start this year, though he’s missed a few games of late due to back spasms.  Martinez is, of course, limited in that he primarily serves as a designated hitter.  The players union continues to advocate for the National League to get the DH, so we’ll see whether the owners agree in the near future and vastly open up Martinez’s market.  Later this year, Martinez will be 32 when he’ll be faced with deciding whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM remaining on his contract.  The safe move is to just stick with his current deal, especially since the Red Sox could saddle Martinez with a qualifying offer if he opts out.

8.  Josh Donaldson.  After an injury-marred 2018 season, Donaldson signed a hefty one-year, $23MM deal with the Braves.  A 30 home run, 80 walk type season in the middle of the Braves’ lineup would likely result in some solid multiyear offers for the former MVP.  However, Donaldson will turn 34 in December, so the offers may top out at two years with a strong AAV.  Another complication is that Donaldson could receive a qualifying offer from the Braves.

9.  Yasmani Grandal.  Like Donaldson, Grandal inked a significant one-year deal in free agency this past winter.  However, Grandal turned down multiyear offers from the Mets, White Sox, Twins, and Angels, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic.  The catcher explained in January at his Brewers press conference, “I had a lot of good deals.  One of my responsibilities as a player is also to respect the guys going through this process before me like Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Yadier Molina, to mention a few of them.”  Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM before ultimately landing his one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee.  If Grandal’s strong start to the season continues, his gambit just might pay off, as even something like three years and $42MM would get him past $60MM for 2019-22.  This time around, he won’t be saddled with a qualifying offer.

10.  Yasiel Puig.  In the first month of his Reds career, Puig has lived up to his Wild Horse nickname by, as Deadspin described it, attempting to “fight all of Pittsburgh.”  He’s here on this list because of his abilities as a hitter, which have decidedly not manifested themselves through 96 plate appearances.  His strikeout and walk rates are career worsts in the early going, but he has five months to turn it around and earn a multiyear contract in free agency.

Honorable mentions: Nicholas Castellanos, Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Cole Hamels

 

We’ll have 2019 Major League Baseball about two weeks from now, perhaps with Oakland’s Mike Fiers throwing the season’s first pitch to Seattle’s Mallex Smith in Tokyo.  Though Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and others remain unsigned, I’m going to begin our monthly look ahead at the 2019-20 MLB free agent class.  These players are on track to become free agents after the 2019 season.

As you can see in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, we had three notable would-be free agents come off the board in February: Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas, and Aaron Hicks.  I feel that Arenado and Mikolas did about as well as they would have in free agency, while it’s possible Hicks’ deal reflects some trepidation toward the backwards trend in dollars per WAR that teams have instituted the last two winters.  There’s a good chance some of the projected free agents listed here will also forgo the open market if a reasonable contract offer is presented.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power.

1.  Xander Bogaerts.  I didn’t begin this exercise expecting Bogaerts to top the list, but if he manages another five win season as Boston’s shortstop, his youth could result in the winter’s longest contract.  Bogaerts, a client of the Boras Corporation, won’t turn 27 until October.  He’s gone year-to-year throughout his career after signing out of Aruba for $410K in 2009.  Bogaerts has now banked over $25MM in his career.  He’s coming off his finest season yet, posting a 133 wRC+ that was second only to Manny Machado among qualified shortstops.  Bogaerts’ defense has long rated as a plus.  While I don’t expect Bogaerts to approach the $300MM contract Machado received, I do think he’ll join the $200MM club with a strong 2019 season.

2.  Chris Sale.  Bogaerts’ teammate Chris Sale has placed top six in the AL Cy Young voting for the last seven years.  The lefty joined the Red Sox in a December 2016 blockbuster trade with the White Sox.  Sale’s dominance has continued in Boston, though he was limited to 158 regular season innings in 2018 due to two DL stints for shoulder inflammation.  Sale’s earning power in free agency will depend on his health this season.  Six years ago, Sale signed a contract extension with the White Sox that has provided tremendous surplus value to both of his clubs.  While it had been standard practice for top free agent starters to be paid through age 36 – see Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, and Yu Darvish (and Zack Greinke, who was paid through 37), the old way of doing things in free agency may no longer apply.  So Sale, 30 this month, will likely seek a six-year contract, though he could have trouble getting there unless one team gets irrational or he accepts a reduced average annual value to max out the guarantee.  In the best case, Sale could inch his way past Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM deal, since Sale will be more than 17 months younger than Greinke was when he reached his historic pact.

3.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole, another Boras client, was drafted by the Yankees out of high school in the first round in 2008.  Cole’s signability changed after the draft, and his family requested that the Yankees not even make an offer.  After three years at UCLA, Cole was drafted first overall by the Pirates.  He was generally solid for the Pirates, including one great season in 2015, before they traded him to the Astros in January 2018.  Cole posted the best season of his career in his first season as an Astro.  Including his record draft bonus, Cole has earned over $33MM in his MLB career on the year-to-year plan.  With another comparable campaign, he’ll be fishing for the seven-year deal signed by Price, Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg.  This would only take Cole through his age 35 season – a reasonable length even in this day and age.  Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal will be four years old when Cole reaches free agency.  My guess is that Cole will fall short of that level but will still sign one of the five largest pitching contracts in baseball history.

4.  Anthony Rendon.  The Nationals let Harper defect to the Phillies on a record $330MM contract, but that might pave the way for a deal with yet another Boras client, Rendon.  Rendon has quietly amassed 13 WAR over the last two seasons, sixth in all of baseball for position players.  The Nationals’ third baseman combines stellar defense with a 140 wRC+ bat, and the result is that he’s every bit as valuable as Harper or Machado right now.  Rendon turns 29 in June, and he’s amassed about $47MM already in his MLB career.  It’s been rare lately that any top position player gets paid past age 35, as Machado and Eric Hosmer did, and many such as Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes were only paid through 34.  We’ll put Harper aside, as only drastically reducing his average annual value allowed for him to be paid through age 38.  This is my way of saying I think Rendon is looking at a six-year deal in the best case.  Back in January, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Rendon was seeking a contract comparable to Altuve, in his extension talks with the Nationals.  That deal was essentially $151MM over five years, though things have gotten worse for free agents in the year since then.  Also since then was Arenado’s seven-year, $234MM extension with the Rockies, notable mainly for its $33.4MM AAV.  Rendon would certainly be within his rights to seek $30-33MM per year in his ongoing extension talks with the Nationals, which may continue into the season.

5.  Paul Goldschmidt.  Goldschmidt starred for the Diamondbacks for eight years until last December’s trade to St. Louis.  Goldy inked what became a club-friendly six-year contract back in 2013.  So on the one hand, the slugging first baseman has banked $45MM in his MLB career.  On the other hand, he’ll turn 32 in advance of his next contract.  These days, that probably caps him at a four-year deal unless he takes a light AAV.  The Cardinals clearly would like to make Goldschmidt, a client of Excel Sports Management, more than a rental.

6.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler, 29 in May, posted the best season of his career in 2018.  The righty was drafted sixth overall out of high school by the Giants in 2009 and was traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran in 2011.  He made his MLB debut in 2013 and did solid work before going down for March 2015 Tommy John surgery.  Wheeler ended up going two and a half years between MLB starts, nearly getting traded to Milwaukee in the interim.  That Wheeler failed to return to the Mets in 2016 served as a reminder that Tommy John recovery is not always seamless.  Wheeler’s 2017 season was abbreviated due to a stress fracture in his arm, and he actually began the 2018 season in the minors.  Wheeler, one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the game, just kept getting better in the 2018 season.  He finished with a 2.06 ERA in his final 15 starts.  An encore performance could make Wheeler a sleeper Cy Young candidate, but it’s all about stringing together a second consecutive healthy season for the first time in his career.  His ceiling would likely be a five-year deal taking him through age 34, the age through which Miles Mikolas, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Arrieta, and Patrick Corbin were signed.  Both Wheeler and Chris Sale are represented by Jet Sports Management.

7.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez, 32 in August, has been the second-best hitter in baseball over the last two seasons by measure of wRC+.  Though he’s able to play the outfield, he’s best-served as a designated hitter.  Martinez signed a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox in late February last year, but the Boras client has the chance to opt out of the 2019 or 2020 seasons.  Given the way Martinez has been hitting, it stands to reason that even in this free agent climate, he will stand a good chance at topping the three years and $62.5MM he’ll have remaining on his contract after 2019.  Since he’d probably only be looking at a four-year deal this time around, it’s possible the Red Sox could simply tack on one more year to his current deal.

8.  Didi Gregorius.  Gregorius, 29, was signed by the Reds out of Curacao for $50K back in 2007.  A pair of three-team trades eventually led him to the Yankees’ shortstop job in 2015, with the near-impossible task of succeeding Derek Jeter.  Gregorius’ bat steadily improved over his four seasons with the Yankees.  Combined with strong defense, he’s totaled 8.7 WAR over the past two seasons – on par with Machado and Bogaerts.  However, Gregorius went down for Tommy John surgery in October.  He could return anywhere from June to August, complicating his free agency picture.  Both Gregorius and the Yankees seem open to an extension, and the club did just prevent Aaron Hicks from exploring free agency by giving him a seven-year, $70MM deal.  Like Goldschmidt, Gregorius is represented by Excel Sports Management.

9.  Justin Verlander.  Verlander, 36, finished second in the AL Cy Young voting last year, in a dominant season that was every bit as good as his Cy/MVP 2011 campaign for the Tigers.  He’s a likely Hall of Famer and is one of the game’s best starting pitchers currently.  When it comes to the topic of Verlander’s free agency, it’s difficult to ignore his age.  I have to think it caps him at a three-year deal, albeit with a premium AAV in the $30MM range.  The Astros have difficult decisions on the horizon regarding their pair of aces.  Verlander is represented by ISE Baseball.

10.  Madison Bumgarner.  Like Verlander, Bumgarner was an ace for an extended period of time.  But with the Giants’ lefty, it remains to be seen what his second act will look like.  An April 2017 dirt bike accident caused injuries to Bumgarner’s ribs and shoulder, limiting him to 17 starts that year.  Then in March of last year, the pitcher’s left hand was fractured during a Spring Training game, delaying his season debut until June.  Upon his return, he wasn’t quite the Bumgarner of old, with his strikeout and walk rates going in the wrong direction.  Still, Bumgarner doesn’t turn 30 until August, and by then we should know whether his 2018 season was a blip on the radar or the start of a trend.  His contract, which will be negotiated by The Legacy Agency, will depend on that question.

Honorable mentions: Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig, Rick Porcello, Nick Castellanos, Josh Donaldson, Yasmani Grandal, Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett

Note: I’m currently operating under the assumption that club options for Corey Kluber, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Starling Marte, and Matt Carpenter will be exercised after the season, and that Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish will not opt out of their contracts.