The Xander Bogaerts extension was quite surprising when signed and has only increased in value to the Red Sox since. That deal gave the Yankees’ chief nemesis extended control over a core asset. It also removed the chief potential market rival for New York shortstop Didi Gregorius.
Gregorius will presumably be basking in the glow of a long-term deal when he celebrates his thirtieth birthday at the outset of Spring Training next year. He enjoys a rather favorable free-agent outlook from a structural standpoint, though he’ll likely have to decline a qualifying offer (and take on the drag of draft compensation) to get there. Just scan the list of pending free agents and you’ll see why Gregorius is still sitting pretty despite his somewhat tepid initial showing this year.
There’s some slight possibility Elvis Andrus will opt out of his deal with the Rangers, but the smart money says he’ll stay put in Texas. Veterans like Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, and Jordy Mercer will be seen only as bench or second-division fill-in options. There’s competition on the left side of the infield more generally, with Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson hitting the open market, and there are some other solid options capable of playing third or second base. But teams intent on signing a quality regular shortstop have nowhere else to turn.
The circumstances are ripe for Sir Didi to maximize his value. But the fundamentals will still drive the bidding. Gregorius has still only played about a quarter of a season’s worth of games this year, having missed the early portion of the season due to Tommy John surgery, but he’s also now nearly halfway through his platform presentation. Let’s see where things stand …
In his first three seasons in New York, Gregorius hit at a roughly league-average .276/.313/.432 clip while averaging 18 long balls annually. His power and output was trending northward, but didn’t fully arrive until a breakout 2018 campaign in which he slashed a robust .268/.335/.494, swatted 27 dingers, and posted a much-improved 69:48 K/BB ratio over 569 trips to the plate.
The difference in the offensive output is significant, obviously. Gregorius is generally perceived and graded as a solid fielder and quality baserunner. With even league-average hitting mixed in, he’s arguably a 3 WAR true-talent player. But with the 121 wRC+ performance he put up last year? Now you’re looking at a guy that’s pushing 5 WAR in a good and healthy season.
We’ve seen signs of both ends of the range for Gregorius thus far in 2019. The overall output sits right in range of league average, with a familiar blend of good pop and middling on-base skills. He’s averaging the same above-average sprint speed as usual and has mostly graded in range of average in the field — not that metrics are particularly telling with just over 300 innings as a sample.
Unsurprisingly, Gregorius has chased both high four-seamers (as he has long been wont to do) and low offspeed offerings (ditto). Pitchers have long attacked him in this manner — and for good reason. Chasing lots of pitches out of the zone has been a part of the Gregorius way since he landed with the Yankees. But he’s doing so now at heretofore unseen levels: 42.2%, up from 36.2% last year. Gregorius is also swinging and missing more now (11.1%) than he did in 2018 (9.2%).
As a result, there has been a notable and somewhat concerning backslide in the plate discipline department. That’s where Gregorius really thrived in 2018, driving his career year. Last season: 12.1% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate. Thus far in 2019: 13.5% strikeout rate, 4.5% walk rate.
But let’s slow down. Gregorius was coming back in the middle of the season after his long rehab effort. And he has already shown notable mid-season plate-discipline improvement. Through his first 22 games, Gregorius maintained a .298 on-base percentage. In his next 20? Um, also a .298 OBP. But he’s getting there in a different way. Gregorius went down on strikes 17 times while drawing just three walks in the first period. In the past twenty contests he has seven strikeouts and five free passes. While his BABIP has taken a downturn in period #2, that’s all but assuredly happenstance (not least of which since his slugging percentage is up to .500, suggesting he’s having little trouble putting the barrel on the ball).
In the power department, Gregorius is carrying the same dozen-plus-percent HR/FB rate and steep average launch angle (17.1 degrees, currently) we’ve become accustomed to. Statcast doesn’t love Gregorius’s batted-ball profile any more than it has in recent seasons, but it also still shows that he isn’t exactly getting by on cheap dingers. While he isn’t making consistently loud contact, with an 87.0 mph average exit velo and .294 xwOBA, he can put a charge in a ball. Gregorius’s eight long balls this year have left the yard at an average 101.1 mph velocity and 28.1 degree launch angle.
All things considered, it seems Gregorius is at worst much the same player he was before his uptick last year. Depending upon how one grades his anticipated future glovework, it’s quite possible to believe he’s a solid 3.5 WAR shortstop who is worthy of being installed as an everyday option for the next several seasons. Given his showing at the plate over the past three weeks, it also seems possible that he’ll end the present season looking more like his 2018 self — the best version we’ve yet seen of Didi.
Either way, we already have a pretty good hint as to one element of Gregorius’s market valuation. The Yanks tendered him a contract last winter, ultimately agreeing to a substantial $11.75MM payday, despite knowing in advance that Gregorius would miss a significant amount of time and face some rehab uncertainty. Gregorius won’t challenge Bogaerts (even at the reduced rate he settled for) in terms of annual salary or years, but the Yankees shortstop is in position — especially with a strong finish — to line up a strong three or four-year pact at a relatively hefty AAV.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I think Didi is a little bit overrated. I mean I do think he’s a legitimate starting SS in the majors but I really don’t view him as much more than a #6-8 hitter on a playoff team. I just feel like his really low OBP, relative to the rest of his game, is something that shouldn’t be overlooked when evaluating what he brings offensively. I also think outside of Yankee Stadium he’s more of a 18-20 HR guy not a 28 HR guy like he was a season ago. Again I definitely think he should get a multi-year deal this off-season and certainly should be a starting SS for at least a couple more years to come. I just also don’t think he should even really be mentioned in the same context as Xander Bogaerts as Bogaerts is clearly in an entirely different league than Didi
You’re out of your mind.
They’ve been similarly valuable from 2015-2018. Xander has Didi beat in bWAR by 1. Xander is a perfect player to compare Didi to. Since Didi is 3 years older and slightly less valuable, he’ll get a lesser deal than Xander to be sure, but they are in fact entirely in the same league of value.
Why is it that Red Sox fans can’t be content to have “good”, they have to argue that they’re “better than anyone ever”. Is it because that’s how they think Yankee fans act, and thus feel they need to emulate in order to fill the gaping hole inside their souls?
.. “hole inside their souls?”
LOLLOLLOL
Entirely different league? No. Bogaerts is a cut above yes but I think you’re disrespecting Didi a bit there.
100% agreed
@jeffzangi
in the last 4 years Didi has hit 80 homers. 44 at home and 36 on the road. that’s near a 50/50 split so his power isn’t necessarily a product of Yankees stadium. he also a top 10 defender.
^^ i was just adding these up. and not to mention his clubhouse presence. esp when CC and gardy are gone. Didi provides a positive attitude and can speak to the NYY experience and learning curve to younger players
Agreed….you are a homer out of your mind!
Didi is a much better defensive shortstop that bogarts in my opinion. I’m not sure how you can describe bogarts as anything more than average in the field. Bogarts has a slight edge in terms of offense but to say he’s in a different category makes me wonder how much you’ve actually watched either of them play…
Man Bogaerts did him a huge favour by signing out of FA.
Perception is reality and I think his true value can be attributed to fans being able to say “Jeter who?” ever since he got passed those first couple months in NY.
Agreed. A lot of people outside of NY don’t place value on that. He’s been great carrying that baton and a steady presence on the Yankees both on and off the field. Then there are others that scoff at unquantifiable elements like makeup/team chemistry. Look at the NY Mets if you’re asking if it makes any difference.
Me too
I think the Yankees will offer him something along the lines of 5 years between 75 and 90 million . Maybe the 5th year will be some type of option
Would be very happy with this extension
Didi declining the qualifying offer would be a HUGE mistake. It would be a Moustakis level mistake in fact. There’s a strong likelihood that the Yanks just move Gleyber over to short and never look back. I just can’t imagine a team signing a guy like Didi for megabucks long-term. He is playing poker with a pair of 2s and is likely to get called if he bluffs.
I agree with this 100%.
What’s a “guy like Didi”? A ss that hits 20-25 homers and plays good defense???
in his last two full seasons, 2017 + 2018 he teamed 4th among all SS in fangraphs WAR.
he’s shown he can handle NY.
5/$90 is fair imo.
he “ranked” 4th….
Not really. He’s guaranteed more than the QO on a multi-year deal. It all depends on how risk-adverse he is and what his goals are. I’d offer him at most a three-year with a vesting fourth. But I’m fine with DJ at 2b, Torres at SS, and Urshela/Anduljar at 3B next season.
He’s not guaranteed anything. People told Moustakis that he was guaranteed big bucks too. I’d bet that he’s more likely to sign a 1 year deal for <$10 then he is a 5 year deal like some have suggested. Teams don't like to give up draft picks to sign older players who aren't superstars.
You’re saying Didi is more likely to sign a 1 year deal rather than a 5? Keep in mind Didi doesn’t have Boras as his agent.
Didi declining the qualifying offer would be a HUGE mistake.
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He’s got a huge amount of uncertainty, but I think $36M/3 is the floor, and the upside could easily be $56M/4.
What’s the uncertainty? His health in terms of his recovery from TJ surgery?
That’s part of it. The performance, with a 0.6 WAR, is part of it. The age.
They didn’t really get too far into who his competition will be. Didi is obviously better than Iglesias. But if I had a choice between Iglesias at maybe $16M/2, or Didi at say $56M/4, I’m choosing Iglesias.
You also have to think in terms of which of the big market teams need a SS, and the answer is pretty much -0-. Didi is better than some of their SS’s, but not so much that you’d pay a premium for him, just to sit or trade your current SS.
@joebrady Didi was a top 5 SS in his two previous years. I guarantee you other teams would be happy to have him,
I think the Yankees let him go and save that money for some of the extensions they have coming up or spend it elsewhere. They can easily move Torres back to short and play LeMahieu at 2B
Not sure, DJ is one more yr and there’s no 2B in the minors pipeline. perhaps move Miguel there. there really are any good 2b FAs the next two yrs
Did you just suggest moving Andujar to 2B? Please be real.
They have Thairo Estrada in AAA.
Vastly unproven. These are the Yankees and if they let a guy like Didi walk to save money and replace him with an unproven Estrada then I will concede what Yanky haters have been clamoring that Hal is being too frugal.
But I don’t see that happening as long as Didi’s demands are not outrageous the way Cano’s were.
Didi shouldn’t be signed for more than a 3 year deal with AAV of 14 mil or less. His stature is propped up by the ‘New York factor’.
In his last two full seasons (2017-2018) he was a top 5 SS on fangraphs. That’s great no matter what city he’s playing. However, it’s not like Didi is considered a top 10 mlb player so I wouldn’t agree with your inference that he’s overrated.
Bogaerts is a cut above Didi and 2 years younger. Add the Yankees payroll for 2020 and we have a free agent potentially looking elsewhere. Qualifying offer most likely attached to Didi.
Bogaerts may be a cut above DIDI as far as offensive average and consistency of his offensive game but he isn’t anywhere near the defensive shortstop DIDI’s is…..this is after watching game after game between the two teams……you all need to watch a few Yankee games and view some of the highlight reel plays that come out of the shortstop position when he’s playing.
Yankees aren’t letting Didi Gregorious go anywhere. He is more important to that team than some realize.
A few years ago, I’d agree. But you now have matured “veteran” makeup guys like Judge, Stanton, Voit, Torres, DJ, Ottavino, Romine, and even Urshela taking over for CC and Gardner.
4 years/$65M is my prediction (following his turn-down of the QO).
He won’t sniff at Bogaerts money due to his age and recent performance (Bogaerts is healthy and having a career year while Didi is coming off a major injury and having a middling year).
If Didi really believes that his sluggish performance is related to recovery from the injury he might be smart to bet on himself and accept the QO. Play one more year in a stat inflated stadium, prove that he is healthy and that 2018 wasn’t a fluke. Do that and his next contract could be in the 5/$100M range.
If this was May/June I’d be yelling from the rooftops for the mets to make a run at Didi because Rosario was really struggling in the field. He has since turned it around and he looks better with the glove to go along with his improving bat. Now Rosario probably stays and the Mets keep him at SS and spend their few $’s trying to fill CF and C (if they can move Ramos).
I really like Didi and I think he will be well worth a 3-4yr $14m AAV contract to put up 3WAR or maybe a bit more per year.
The Reds need a SS, but I’d rather keep Jose Iglesias for $10 million less per year. They could use the savings to extend Alex Wood.
Didi will be an interesting test of Cash’s commitment to this team and the bottom line. Remember this is the same genius that told Jeter to go find a better deal when Jeter was the Yankees brand.
If Cash has truly found depth and equal replacement value in the bargain bin and on the farm, then maybe he can use some leverage or dare i suggest use Didi to finally acquire some starting pitching.
Also will be interesting to see if didi who can handle and loved NY will give a home town discount at all if someone else were to throw serious coin his way.
No matter what this will be fascinating to follow
How would he use Didi to get starting pitching? He’ll be a free agent and the deadline is over. Unless you’re talking about source allocation
he already said publicly, right AFTER they announced his surgery that he wanted to extend Didi.
IMO, I seriously doubt they’d have offered arbitration to him last year if they didn’t want to keep him. Given the injury timeline, and recuperation, he didn’t figure to produce more than about a 2 WAR, if that. It’s maybe a little similar to Wheeler, in that the NYM likely were thinking that, if they didn’t trade him, they’d QO him. Nothing else made sense.
From my RS perspective, Didi is a fine player and clubhouse citizen, and worthy of an extension.
They do have a good thing going with Didi at short and Gleyber at second which allows DJLM to be able to be the super utility guy that plays everyday and still gives guys rest. Remove Didi and then DJLM is back to being a second baseman and then you dont really have that super utility guy anymore. For that reason, I can see them extending Didi. But because of their overall depth of above average MLB talent I cant see the Yankees going crazy and overpaying him. If Hicks can get 10 mil for 7 years you’d think Didi would be able to pull something similar that is seemingly both a generous offer and a hometown discount
@begamin
This year showed how valuable it is to have players that can play several positions at a high level and produce offensively. I think relegating DJ to just 2nd base would be minimizing his value to the team.
Exactly.
Two negative effects if you let Didi walk. One being you no longer have Didi on the team and the other being DJLM goes back to primarily being a 2B