We’re in for a riveting couple of months in the National League, where the majority of franchises at least have a glimmer of a chance at earning a wild-card berth. Four teams are within 2 1/2 games of the currently Max Scherzer-less Nationals for the top spot, while another four are 2 1/2 or fewer behind the Phillies for the league’s fifth and final playoff position. And we can’t even fully rule out the Giants, Reds, Padres or Rockies – teams that range from four to 7 1/2 behind the Phillies. The odds are strongly against anyone from the San Francisco-Cincinnati-San Diego-Colorado quartet making a miracle run, but nobody expected the long-slumbering Mets to suddenly rip off 13 wins in 14 games to put themselves in the thick of the race.
Despite a season loaded with turmoil, the Mets’ out-of-nowhere stretch of brilliance has placed them just a game back of the Phillies. According to FanGraphs, New York now has the second-highest odds of the NL’s wild-card contenders, trailing only the Nationals. The Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Reds check in next, though FanGraphs ranks their chances significantly lower than those of the Nats and Mets. The only club from that group that’s not at least .500 is Cincinnati. The Reds are a subpar 54-58, but they’ve won seven of 10 and did just add a pair of notable pitchers in Trevor Bauer and Kevin Gausman (the Bauer acquisition came at the expense of outfielder Yasiel Puig, though). Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks lost the best pitcher from an already thin staff, Zack Greinke, whom they traded to the Astros at last week’s deadline. Arizona brought in a respectable back-end starter in Mike Leake, but he’s no Greinke.
Arguably no current wild-card contender did more to improve at the deadline than the Mets, who reeled in Marcus Stroman to complement ace Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler near the top of their rotation. The majority of the other teams mentioned above also made deadline additions, but Bauer aside, Stroman may be the highest-upside pickup on paper.
MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked Tuesday if the Mets would end up in the postseason, though the majority of voters said no. But if not them, then which two clubs will make it from the NL’s crowded field (one that could also include the division-leading Braves and Cubs)?
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LFGM!!!
LFGM
LFGM!
LAME
LOL
lol
I think Nats and Brewers. Phillies Pitching just isn’t good. It’s basically Nola, pray for rain, pray for rain, and 2 LHP journeyman
been praying all year and no one’s answered – even God has forsaken this team.
correct me if Im wrong, but i dont think the brew crew has pitching either? at least not starters
Phillies have also been outscored this season by 21 runs. Below average hitting, meh pitching, bad bullpen. I think the Nats, Brewers, Reds, Mets, Dbacks (maybe not without Greinke now, though) and Padres are all better teams than Philly.
Mets and Nats.
My biased opinion is the Nats and Reds
Mets look good right now. Peaking at the right time.
They’ve played the soft spot in their schedule so let’s see how they look in the next 4 weeks. I’m not sure I’m buying the Mets sudden rise.
Huge series this weekend.
True, but 19-6 over the last 25 is still impressive
Nats I think have the most consistent offense. And starters. Mets are right in there. Might be interesting to see them put heat on till the end. Brews don’t have the starters. But great offense in that ballpark. Plus Yelich. Cards are hot n cold. Like Goldschmidt’s bat. Phil’s are down there. A lot of .500 teams on this list. Reds too. A .500 ballclub at they’re height. I picked the Nats n Giants. I’m a Giants Fan. I have hope. Maybe slightly blindly. But still early with two months to go. And D backs are good bad everywhere… Same same. .500 ballclub.
Will be pretty interesting that rest of the way. I don’t see too much major separation happening down the stretch.
Hey. The Giants 13.5 games back one August. But cameback to go to the WS. You can never be completely sure until teams are eliminated.
Nationals, for sure. Then I’d like to see the Mets get in. They’re going to have to hope the duct tape can hold their bullpen together down the stretch. But maybe it will. They definitely have the most interesting rotation out of any other contender.
i pray im wrong, but i have to say Nats and Cards. at least i can rest easy knowing i really dont believe – yet still fear – the Mets
Giants had their hot streak for the year
And it came at the worst possible time. Not selling Bumgarner and Smith was so dysfunctional. Something I didn’t expect from Zaidi
Bumgarner has a no trade clause.
He would have gone to a contender and it removes any QO if he accepted a trade. He would have waived it
You don’t know that. When did he say he would waive the no trade clause?
He only had a no trade to 8 teams so he could not even block a deal everywhere….
Really only 1 or 2 of the teams that weren’t on the list would have been interested in trading for him
Waiving the NTC means he gets to pitch for a team with a better chance of going all the way this year and makes him ineligible for a QO. Absolutely he would have accepted a trade. Don’t think for even a second that the Giants are going to not QO him as a showing of goodwill or whatever.
And it came at the worst possible time.
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Same with the RS. They absolutely crushed TB and the NYY. Up until those two series, I was hoping they would sell, including Betts. Then it looked like 2018 all over again.
Once the deadline passed, it looked like 2014 all over again.
LFGM!
The Pirates were in it but, evidently, their amateur scouts decided there was someone they really, really like near the top of next year’s draft.
I’m a Cardinals fan but they just don’t have the pitching in my mind to keep up with the Mets or Nationals! We don’t have a good closer and even if Mikolas and Flaherty can keep it up behind them they have Hudson who looks like he might have hit his wall and then Wainwright who is really good at home but not so good away and then just FLIP A COIN after that! As far as our offense, well after 110 games it is what it is! Very inconsistent and terrible at situational hitting! I truly hope they prove me terribly wrong!!
I would love to see Giants vs Cardinals (NLCS rematch and a clash of two clubs which play the game the right way) but my guess is Nats vs Cardinals.
The Mets have taken advantage of a weak schedule since the All-Star break. That isn’t their fault. You can only beat the teams you play. They start a stretch where the schedule gets tougher now. They have put themselves in a good position, but things can change quickly. If they lose 4 of 5 to the Nationals & Braves in their next two series, things could be a lot different.
Yup. They are about to fall down again. They beat the teams they were supposed to and some of the teams they beat since the asg should have beaten them. It goes both ways. Prediction… the finish under .500 in 4th place. Brodie gets fired next year after another 4th place finish and higher payroll.
The Mets also have something like 30 of their last 48 games at home. They played a TON on the road in the beginning of the season. The next 2-3 wks has legit teams with nary a break. It’s also worth noting that the Mets have the easiest post-AS break schedule.
Not a chance for the hapless Phillies with their idiotic manager. The smirking waves and hubris from a few months ago is long gone.
Mets vs winner between Giants & Brewers.
I put Cardinals and other. Other being the Braves, cause the Nats are gonna win the division
Nats, Phillies
Has to be nats and brewers
I doubt the bum will sustain anything once they actually play good teams.
Ha!
Mets…
Ha!
Y’all remember the last two times the Cardinals won the World Series they limped into the playoffs and got hot? Pepperidge Farm remembers….
Nationals and somebody else. Don’t see how any guess about the someone else makes much sense now with the NLC being a three-way tossup.
Mets and Brewers for WC1 & WC2….playoff game at CitiField! The Phillies will continue to sink. The Nats have Scherzer and Rendon on the IL, which makes them vulnerable.
And the Mets won’t be able to beat up on the Marlins (7), Giants, Padres, Pirates (7), & White Soxs.
Hats off if they can navigate through the Nats (6), Indians, Phillies (6), Braves (9), Cubs, & Dodgers.
You can post the short term downfalls of all the teams fighting for the wild card if you’re be truthful.
Braves and Mets. I think the Nats overtake the Braves for the division.
Half of the Braves games remaining are against the Mets, Nats and Phils. with 4 teams in the NL East within reach of playoff spots, it should be an interesting remainder of the season.
The Cubs have a higher chance of falling into the Wild Card than the Reds have at being a contender for it.
The Cubs have 48 games left, 27 of them are away. They have the absolute worst away record for a team over .500
I see nobody arguing for the DBacks when they still have 9 games against SD, 6 COL, 6 SF, 6 CIN, and 3 MIA. Their worst matchups are 7 LA, 3 MIL, 3 STL, (debatably) 4 NYM. 26 home games and 21 road left (the shortest stay at home will be 6 games, while the longest road trip will be 7 games).
They have Walker, Peralta, Dyson, and Lamb putting up WAR at essentially a league average pace (scaled to PA); Kelly, Avila, Ahmed, and Escobar at above average paces; plus Marte at an MVP pace. Locastro is still a useful piece as a PR in the right situations, and there’s still a possibility that Cron could bring some power off the bench.
The offense is the 5th best in the NL (better than every WC contender except the Mets), the defense is far and away the best in the NL (and MLB), and they have the best baserunning in the NL (tied with the Rangers for MLB lead). All put together, that’s quietly been the 3rd most valuable group of position players in the NL.
The pitching is a little dicier to figure out, because they were the 6th most valuable group in the NL, but there were just a large amount of shakeups in the rotation and bullpen. It’s yet to be determined exactly how much of Greinke’s value will be made up by Gallen, but nobody can deny that Leake is an upgrade from Clarke at the moment. Young is also still a total wildcard. The DFAs of Holland and Godley threw them into a closer by committee (although Bradley is showing signs of life) and allowed Ginkel to be brought up (it’s also yet to be seen how his stuff plays against Major Leaguers, but it certainly is nasty). But if either of Walker or Weaver is capable of coming back, either would be a better option than Scott.
Brewers
Braves