This is the third in a series of pieces previewing offseason club option decisions. This edition will focus on starting pitchers…
- Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates ($9MM option or $1.75MM buyout): The Archer era hasn’t gone as planned for Pittsburgh since it acquired him from Tampa Bay in a July 2018 blockbuster. This year, his first full season as a Pirate, Archer has notched an awful 5.35 ERA/5.55 FIP across 107 2/3 innings. His $9MM salary for next year no longer looks like a bargain, but it’s not pricey enough for the Pirates to cut the cord.
- Andrew Cashner, RHP, Red Sox ($10MM option): Cashner was the reigning world champion Red Sox’s headlining July acquisition, but he hasn’t helped matters during a skid that could knock the team out of contention. After pitching decently for the Orioles prior to the deal, the soon-to-be 33-year-old Cashner has yielded 18 earned runs on 31 hits and 10 walks (with 16 strikeouts) in four starts and 23 1/3 innings as a member of the Red Sox. He won’t be on their roster in 2020.
- Derek Holland, LHP, Cubs ($6.5MM option or $500K buyout): We could technically group Holland in with the relievers, as he has spent most of the season in that capacity for the Giants and Cubs after an abysmal start to the season out of San Francisco’s rotation. Holland has been good for the Cubs since they acquired the then-designated 32-year-old, having logged 5 2/3 innings of three-hit, one-run ball. As of now, though, he’s a strong bet to return to free agency over the winter.
- Corey Kluber, RHP, Indians ($17.5MM option or $1MM buyout): The two-time Cy Young winner got off to a surprisingly rough start before suffering a forearm fracture May 1, and he hasn’t returned since. But the 33-year-old Kluber’s option should still be an easy one for the Indians to exercise.
- Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Mariners ($5MM option or $450K buyout): While LeBlanc was a respectable source of innings for the Mariners in 2018, he’s likely pitching his way back to the free-agent market this season. The 35-year-old owns a 5.38 ERA/5.30 FIP over 92 innings divided between the M’s rotation and bullpen.
- Martin Perez, LHP, Twins ($7MM option or $500K buyout): It was just last offseason that the Rangers declined a $7.5MM option for Perez, who has since emerged as a decent buy-low pickup for the Twins. Perez, 28, is averaging a career-high 94.1 mph on his fastball and has pitched to a 4.58 ERA/4.44 FIP with 7.76 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent groundball rate across 116 innings. That’s acceptable production for a back-end starter, though it’s worth noting Perez’s numbers have tailed off over the past couple months. Minnesota may opt to move on as a result, which would save the team $7MM. Then again, the club could be leery of having to replace yet another starter behind ace Jose Berrios with Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda all headed for free agency.
- Jose Quintana, LHP, Cubs ($11.5MM option or $1MM buyout): The Cubs traded two potential long-term building blocks, outfielder Eloy Jimenez and righty Dylan Cease, to the crosstown rival White Sox for Quintana back in 2017. Quintana was amid an excellent multiyear stretch then, though his effectiveness has waned since changing Chicago homes. Still, the soon-to-be 31-year-old absolutely hasn’t struggled enough for the Cubs to reject his option two seasons after giving up Jimenez and Cease. Quintana has recorded a 4.40 ERA/4.09 FIP in 122 2/3 innings this year.
- Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves ($12MM option or $1MM buyout): This is a pretty debatable case. On one hand, Teheran’s 3.46 ERA and team-leading 130 innings are impressive. On the other, his 4.47 FIP, 5.11 SIERA, 5.25 xFIP, 4.29 BB/9 and 39.7 percent grounder rate combine to paint a much drearier picture. That said, the 28-year-old Teheran has become known for regularly outperforming underwhelming peripherals. Whether the Braves trust his ability to do it again in 2020 will determine his fate with the organization.
- Jason Vargas, LHP, Phillies ($8MM option or $2MM buyout): Vargas was among the game’s worst starters in 2018, but he has rebounded this season to post passable back-end numbers with the Mets and Phillies. The soft-tossing 36-year-old has amassed 100 2/3 innings of 3.93 ERA/4.66 FIP pitching with 7.69 K/9, 3.58 BB/9 and a 40.7 percent grounder mark. He’s still far from a slam dunk to have his option picked up – cutting Vargas would save the Phillies $6MM – but they’ll need competent innings from somewhere in 2020. They haven’t consistently gotten enough of those this year from anyone but Aaron Nola. He and the declining Jake Arrieta will be back in Philly’s rotation next season, but questions abound otherwise.
Just an FYI – Quintana and Vargas aren’t on the Sox or Mets anymore.
Lol….good catch.
You’d think they’d fix this
MLBTR is simply exercising the option of their prescient ability and predicting the teams that Quintana and Vargas will each pitch for in 2020 or 2021.
Don’t bother Connor with “facts.” He’s too busy creating long, valueless articles and calculating wxFIP to get the facts right.
Lol. Connor works hard. But yeah, it’s all numbers with words like “putrid” and “disgustingly untalented” here and there.
I like when they use descriptive words like that. It’s what makes them better than run of the mill news sources to me.
They could use simpler wording and just churn out cookie-cutter articles with no personality, but I think it’s better that they add a little flair. It makes it more interesting to read.
At least you got your money’s worth…..
Cashner will be on some kind of make good to be on a 25 man roster next year. Boston meanwhile will be looking for a 5th starter regardless to replace Porcello. They only have 2 guys above A ball with a snowball’s chance to be effective MLB starter’s in Mata and Houck. Mata is just 20 and Houck was converted to relief a few weeks back, along with the 3rd guy in Hernandez, so no help from within and really hope they don’t turn to the hapless brian Johnson yet again.
The lack of drafting decent types of pitchers as prospects has come to bite them right now.. That is the garbage Johnson, Stankiewicz and Trey Ball types with 1st-2nd round picks.. i really hope this nonsense has sunk in and gone for good. head shakers at the time and now? Just trash.
You forget that some of the drafted arms were shipped out of town over the years as trade pieces as well .. but generally speaking, I think the draft the best player available has turned out ok for the sawx.
Next year’s rotation? Tough to picture. We know Price/Erod will be there. I’m expecting a healthy Eovaldi gets stretched back out.
Porcello is out – DD traded him once in detroit, he hasn’t been good this year, and there’s no way they want him back anything close to that 20m salary.
Notice I omit Sale. There’s one heck of a funk there, and you wonder with the type of guy he is, is there something more going on with him that he’s been working through? I guess we find after in october.
Meanwhile, I’m not slamming the door on cashner, esp since I can’t recall if Baltimore back loaded any cash consideration covering part of 2020s salary
Sale is not injured is just his mechanics
Thanks Jonny Super Scout.
Nice dig. Quality! Upvoted.
Teheran will be an interesting choice. If the braves decide to spend big on a starting pitcher like Cole or Strasburg (If he opts out), then they shouldn’t bring him back.
Bring him back either way.
Donaldson’s money covers what you’d spend on a ace starter anyways. Meanwhile, worst-case scenario you’ve either got a veteran presence, OR. If you grab an ace then trade bait. $11m on a one year deal is affordable and appealing to a number of clubs, and that’s all the extra it costs to keep him in the fold.
Knowing the Braves they won’t spend big
They shop in any aisle
No, don’t bring back Teheran. Stop leaving garbage on the team and actually get good pitchers.
AAA Stripers WS title 2019!
Cory Kluber’s option is 17.5 million not 13.5 million.
Cy Young award bonuses accelerated it from the original 13.5 million.
Still an easy exercise.
Along with another $18M team option in 2021 that makes Cory Kluber a prime trade candidate for the Indians this offseason or the following year.
The Pirates would be better off giving Archer $2 million to go away than to give him $9 million to take the mound for them next year. Time to cut bait Bucs.
You may be right, but 1) they won’t because they want to salvage something from the trade and 2) there is nothing but uncertainty in the rotation next year. Who knows what will happen with Taillon next year, Williams and Musgrove have up and down this year, Brault has been a bright spot but has a history of stinking it up, Agrazal has been ok but there’s nothing there to count on, Keller should be there and hopefully ready, and you’re left with maybe Chad Kuhl and a bunch of Kingham-types. Lord knows they’ll look for a Lyles type of player and nothing that resembles a proven starter.
They pretty much have to keep him.
I think the prospect of saving $7 million outweighs trying to salvage the deal. It’s time for the front office to move out…er…on.
Besides saving the deal…they need him. Frankly, the rotation sucks now and may not be better next year. Also they’ll hope for a performance turnaround so they can attempt a trade next year.
I guarantee he’d generate trade interest. It wouldn’t shock me if Pittsburgh could get a 45 FV or a couple of A ball guys who are high risk 50s.
The slim contract and solid peripherals are enough for team to take a chance on him.
I think people have caught on to Archer and his peripherals. They don’t matter if they never translate to actual run prevention.
I hear this alot but I don’t think teams are writing him off because of it. Sure its risky to expect him to perform to or beyond his peripherals but to be better than what hes been isn’t asking for much. You’re basically getting an affordable pitcher who’s floor is a useful starter and who’s ceiling is much better.
If Taillon were healthy, if Williams and Musgrove had shown any consistency, if Keller had locked down a rotation spot, then the Pirates might consider cutting bait on Archer, but…
Yeah.
I wonder if the Cubs would entertain trading Q for major league talent. It’s not like they have a ton of SP depth but I get the feeling that he’d be available at a reasonable price.
I’m certain that the White Sox would gladly surrender any player off of their current active roster not named Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez, Aaron Bummer, James McCann, Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez for an opportunity to have Jose Quintana return to their rotation in 2020. That list would also be expanded to include Michael Kopech, Carlos Rodon and Yoan Moncada who presently occupy a spot on one of the White Sox IL lists.
I could also envision a scenario where the White Sox might entertain the notion of dealing Lopez, Rodon, Bummer or McCann for “Q” in a deal or an expanded one that would have an additional player or prospect returning to the southside of Chicago depending on their other free agent or trade targets this coming offseason. An example might be the White Sox signing FA catcher Yasmani Grandal to a multi-year contract which would make McCann expendable or doing the same with Dallas Keuchel that could free up Lopez or Rodon in a potential trade.
At this time, Julio Tehran and Martin Perez will return to their teams. All the rest will be bought out. Corey Kluber was pitching badly before the injury and the Indians are doing well without him. If we have to decide now, he’s out too. However, the season isn’t over so it depends on how both he and Tehran pitched from here on whether they stay or go..
In what universe will the Indians refuse to pay their former ace well below his probable marker value?
There are situations that it could happen. They owe a bunch of raises on contracts that are guaranteed next year and still have Lindor going to his 2nd arbitration which should be a big raise and a few other players hitting arbitration. Maybe they somehow get Lindor to agree to an extension but have to cut payroll in other ways. I figure IF that happens it would be well after the date they have to pick up the option but they could then trade him instead. And the more likely option is ownership has them cut payroll again and his is the easiest to get rid of with being a buyout.
Every baseball fan except for pirates fans saw how bad that archer trade was gonna be.
I think many Pirates fans saw the Archer trade as a bad deal.
Literally everyone on here chirped about how great Archer was and how it would take a Kings ransom to acquire him
Please. Giving away Meadows and Glasnow for this guy? Not sure how many Pirates fans liked that one or the idea that since their ace likely won’t be back until June and the FO seems to think it can compete for a WC each year, they’ll likely hold onto to Archer
I love seeing the pirates suck.
Cashner will be making his return to Baltimore this offseason w how poorly he’s throwing the ball in Boston. I’ll be happy to have him back though.