We just gathered your latest predictions on the National League side, where there are still quite a few scenarios to consider. But the situation in the American League has gained quite a bit of clarity of late. It appears we’re looking at a potentially fascinating three-team race … with only one of those clubs ultimately getting a full divisional series.
Entering play today, the Rays half a half-game lead over the Athletics, who in turn carry another half-game advantage over the Indians. The Red Sox have fallen well out of the picture, removing one possibility for intrigue. Odds are, we’re going to see those three clubs duke it out down the stretch for position.
Okay, there is still one other realistic outcome. The Indians still have an outside chance of catching the Twins in the AL Central. And if that’s the case, then it’s also true that there’s even a possibility that the Twins will fall outside the postseason picture entirely. But even with Minnesota’s recent run of roster woes, the four-game spread gives them a stout advantage. And it’s especially improbable — so say the postseason odds estimators, at least — that the Minny faithful will be left without even a single playoff contest. Fangraphs and 538 both put the odds at less than one percent of that scenario.
Accordingly, we’ll focus on the Tampa Bay-Oakland-Cleveland low-revenue battle royale. There are any number of outrageous late-season scenarios if we end up with various sorts of ties. Regardless, it’s quite likely that only one of those organizations will be left standing when the ALDS begins.
Every minor factor matters at this stage of the season. The quality of the opposition is an especially major consideration. Here’s the remaining schedule for these three teams.
Rays
@ Rangers (1), @Angels (3), @Dodgers (2), vs. Red Sox (4), vs. Yankees (2), @ Blue Jays (3)
Athletics
@ Astros (1), @ Rangers (3), vs. Royals (3), vs. Rangers (3), @Angels (2), @Mariners (4)
Indians
vs. Twins (3), vs. Tigers (3), vs. Phillies (3), @ White Sox (3), @Nationals (3)
How do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users. Response order randomized.)
Let’s just hope they all 3 end the season tied.
Why?
Because extra baseball games is the simple reason. But also, we’d get the extra feeling of do or die games. How would that be bad for fans of baseball?
The playoffs are too long, ratings are down as it is among other problems with the sport.
So you are hoping that a situation that would raise ratings doesn’t happen? The playoffs are not too long. Would you rather it go back to World Series only “playoffs”?
Over saturation doesn’t raise ratings.
But unique and momentous do or die games absolutely do draw in the crowds. We’re not talking about extending the length of a series, we’re talking about an extremely rare and intriguing tie situation that would undoubtedly draw interest from a wider range of sports fans.
“But unique and momentous do or die games absolutely do draw in the crowds” Nothing, but nothing seems to help on that front. Baseball has truly become just a niche sport.
I mean, statistically speaking, you are wrong about what I just suggested. Yes, overall, baseball has become less wide-ranging in interest, but games such as those proposed, statistically, draw in greater crowds than, say, game 3 of a championship series.
“statistically speaking” most of the eyes drawn to those extra games will be regional fans of those teams, and that’s the trouble with baseball in 2019.
Honestly? There are times I would.
I’d rather add 2 teams and have four divisions in each league and no wild card games.
@ Bocephus you have an overly pessimistic view of the sport. General viewership across all sports is down. These types of games historically do bring some of the best ratings, there’s no reason to think that would be any different this time around.
Regional interest is why all the playoff games are on cable. The games don’t draw enough of an audience for FOX or another broadcast network to interrupt their regular programs. National audiences are only drawn for the World Series or maybe a Game 7 of an LCS.
I do like the Wild Card games. I don’t know for sure, but I imagine they have a small increase in audience compared to an opening LDS or LCS game.
When there have been game 163’s they have been one of the most watched games of the season nationally and the wildcard games have been highly watched as well so stats disagree with you.
And you would have to normalize for the teams involved. There’s a big difference in viewing audience for New York as opposed to Milwaukee.
When FOX news programs outperform those games, things are bad. Viewership went down for the NFL for half a season, and have since bounced back
Again, what Kleppy just referred to. You obviously have an immovably pessimistic view on this issue, so no point to try and budge you. But, facts show that these particular games reach a wider-than-regional viewing audience.
One of the things that hurts baseball is that the season continues into football season. Younger people don’t view sports in the same way as older folks do…meaning, it’s not as high of a priority. I have posted this before, but i strongly feel it would help baseball as a whole:
Add 1 team to each league
Shorten the season to 144 games
Have 2 divisions in each league
Eliminate interleague play
Top 4 in each division make the playoffs
1 v 4, 2 v 3 in 3 game division series
Then re=seed the remaining teams 1 v 4, 2 v 3 in 5 game series
LCS from remaining 2 teams in each league in 7 game series
WS 7 game series
Right now there are a possible 41 playoff games (including the WS) that could happen, if all went full series. If they went to what i suggest there would be 65 total if they all went full series (again, including the WS). But less than half of all 5 and 7 game series go the full sries, so in reality we’d likely be looking at roughly 52-ish games. That’s still more than are played now, so lost revenue from the 9 gone home games can be made up, easily. All out tanking would be less common because getting to the playoffs would be more lucrative and sustaining a quality chance of getting to the playoffs would also be more lucrative.
The season would end before September and NFL season. The playoffs would draw better ratings because it won’t be happening in the part of the NFL season where fans are as ensconced in that sport. The playoffs could be scheduled where they end before October begins.
It won’t happen because the owners will likely never OK a shorter season because of losing 9 home games. But really, attendance per game will likely rise due to fewer games scheduled.
Here’s how I would adjust your proposal:
Add 2 teams (this wont happen until Oakland and TB figure out their stadium situations)
Shorten the season to 154 games (only 4 less home games per team)
Have 4 divisions of eight teams per division, no leagues (that’s right, no AL, no NL, just MLB)
14 games vs team intra-division (98 total), 7 games vs. team in another division with division matchups occurring every three years (56 total).
2nd place vs 3rd place meet in Wild Card game
Winner meets 1st place team in division series but must win 4 games, 1st place team only needs to win 3.games.
Then re=seed the remaining teams 1 v 4, 2 v 3 in 7 game series to get into the World Series
WS 7 game series
DH would be needed league-wide but teams could let pitchers bat instead (Ohtani, Lorenzen, etc.)
World Series would be in mid-October, just like it used to be.
“Top 4 in each division make the playoffs”! Please, no.
Cuz that would be really, really, cool…
Oakland would really have to choke against bad competition for that to happen.
Yes, but it happens sometimes.
Being an A’s fan for so many years, never take anything for granted. Could easily miss the playoffs, should be interesting.
I can see all three ending at 96-76.
You’d be the only one; MLB does not have a 172 game schedule.
Whoops! 96-66,.. you know what I mean.
All is good Ray.
I just hope Cleveland is out let’s go RAYS and A’S!!!!
I hate to say it, but I’d put the Twins somewhere in this poll as well. Only 4 up with 3 still left vs Cleveland, and while players are out for both teams, the Twins are getting less out of their depth than the tribe.
After they play the Indians the Twins play the White Sox (3), KC (4), Detroit (3), KC (3) even if the Indians sweep the Twinz they would still be in 2nd and the Twins would be playing AA teams the rest of the year, they aren’t losing the division.
Hope you’re right.
Well, the math is definitely in the Twins’ favor. Indians have 3 left against Twins, 3 left against Tigers, 3 left against White Sox. Let’s pretend they go 9-0 in those games. They then have 3 against the Phillies and 3 against the Nationals. If they go 3-3 in those… so saying a pretty generous 12-3 to finish the season, INCLUDING a sweep of the Twins… the Twins would still “only” have to go 10-4 while playing 1 against the Nationals, 3 against the Tigers, 3 against the White Sox, and 7 against the Royals.
But. crazier things have happened.
I keep waiting for the Rays to tank it but the chances of that happening are starting to dry up
Rays have the toughest remaining schedule.
And have been playing the best, as a Rays fan I really don’t mind having the toughest schedule. Gotta determine your own fate and if you wanna be in the playoffs with the big boys you should play them hard and see what happens. Playing non contending teams just to make it then get knocked out the first round isn’t even worth making it.
Rays have been playing a bunch of duds, looking forward to seeing them play some real teams.
I love when people think the Rays are gonna tank just because we don’t have the name recognized players that people know. There is no chance of the Rays dropping with Snell coming back, Glasnow back and continuing to stretch out, chirinos coming back. Rays have the best team out of the wild card teams by far and the healthier they get that’ll be shown
By far? Yet only a combined 1 game ahead of the other two teams.
To be fair, their top 3 pitchers have been injured and they still remain in the lead. All 3 are coming back. KC38 has a solid point
Perhaps you have not looked at the A’s rotation…they don’t even have a top 3.
Or the fact that the very same thing happened to Cleveland with even better pitchers than the Ray’s have.
Lol
We’ve had 1 true starting pitcher for over a month now, I’d love to see any other team in baseball be able to gain games in the standings like that
Baseball rarely works out that way. Gaining ground with the replacements doesn’t, in any way, guarantee that you’ll get even hotter with your regulars coming back.
Glad to see you know nothing about the Cleveland Indians.
Jesus Luzardo, remember that name.
Jesus saves
Tiger’s fans say: “Who cares; let’s just get this season over with.”
The real race is for lowest home attendance – my bet is oakland will prevail in that category.
Doubtful, that’s definitely the Rays.
Rays do have the toughest schedule on paper but the Divers clinching already plus Boston’s starters are so weak..they still can hold on.
Dodgers*