In what could be his final week in a Mets uniform, pending free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler spoke about his future with Mollie Walker of the New York Post, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters Wednesday. Unsurprisingly, the 29-year-old Wheeler doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to commit to his current team with what could be a lucrative trip to the open market looming.
“I think you have to weigh your options when it gets to this point,” said Wheeler, who’s just over a month from becoming a free agent. “I love it here and I definitely would listen to these guys. But I think you have to weigh all your options and see what’s best for me personally at that point.”
Wheeler was both a trade and an extension candidate as recently as July, but the Mets neither dealt him nor locked him up. And there haven’t been any rumors regarding a new contract between the sides since then, so it appears increasingly likely Wheeler will test the market.
Considering the wide interest he drew prior to the trade deadline, the Mets probably could have gotten something for Wheeler back in July (though he was coming off shoulder issues at the time). However, even if he walks in free agency, they’ll still have a chance to land draft compensation for Wheeler – who looks like a surefire candidate to receive the qualifying offer. Wheeler would then have the option of accepting the one-year offer (which should be worth in the $18MM-$19MM neighborhood) and sticking with the Mets. As you’d expect, though, Wheeler prefers more security than the QO presents.
On the prospect of signing a multiyear pact, Wheeler stated: “Hopefully, yeah. Time will tell.”
Although Wheeler’s a former Tommy John patient who sat out for almost all of 2015-17 with arm injuries, he has spent the past two seasons making a strong case for a considerable multiyear payday. After firing 182 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.25 FIP ball in 2018, Wheeler has notched 187 1/3 frames of 3.99 ERA/3.47 FIP pitching this year. During that two-year span, Wheeler has struck out just under a hitter per inning while walking fewer than three per nine. Moreover, Wheeler boasts elite fastball velocity – the pitch clocks in at just under 97 mph – which should only make it easier for him to cash in during the coming months.
In the event Wheeler pitches for a different team in 2020, the top of the Mets’ rotation could still be in enviable shape. Ace Jacob deGrom might be a back-to-back NL Cy Young winner by then, while Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman make for fine complements. Then again, with all the trade rumors that have surrounded Syndergaard since last winter, perhaps he – like Wheeler – isn’t a lock to don a Mets uni next year.
Definitely the kind of high upside starter the Jays should be targeting this winter.
To the Dodgers, they go 3/45 and he makes 20 starts over 3 seasons.
If wheeler settles for 3/45 he will need a new agent.
The Mets would offer that if that’s all it would take. The qualifying offer, which I’m sure they’ll offer, will be more than that on a per year basis.
The Brewers FO have always had interest in Wheeler, and they have the money to get him. Would fit nicely with Woodruff, Houser, Lyles and Davies to make a solid rotation.
I wonder how many years he will command. If it goes beyond four I think that knocks out a lot of teams like Jays and Brewers. And I think the remaining teams might be too smart/risk averse to giving him five or more years, teams like the Angels or Giants. So I guess that means I think he will get a strong four-year deal, maybe in the 80s.
Projecting Wheeler in the $18M range over 4-5 seasons. Will assuredly reject Mets Qualifying Offer attaching a top 45 draft pick to his departure. Mets could also resign Wheeler & deal the 2 remaining Yrs of control on Syndergaard to fill holes. Padres seem like the best trade partner & have been interested in Thor dating back to last offseason.
Issue is Syndergaard is going to be dominant the next 2 seasons. The return to trade arguably the most talented pitcher in baseball must be HUGE. Last offseason there were question marks, but those appear in the past.
Mets must enter 2020 with 3 pitchers atop their rotation that can be counted on for high quality innings. Is the combination deGrom-Thor-Stroman or deGrom-Wheeler-Stroman with Matz?
Wheeler’s best fit is the Phillies. I could see the Braves being involved, but expect they’ll go after Bumgarner to replace Keuchel.
Wheeler for all the knocks is one of the top 20 or so pitchers in the game. And it wouldn’t shock me if he landed just under $100M. Of the FA pitchers outside of Gerrit Cole and Strasburg if he opts out… I’d take Wheeler for the next 4 seasons over Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel, Darvish – if he opts out -, Odorizzi etc. And somehow I think he’ll be cheaper on an AAV basis than Bumgarner / Ryu but get more term.
What statistical or analytical data gives you the opinion that Syndergaard is going to be the most dominant pitcher in baseball?
He was not good this year.
He gave up the 2nd most earned runs (91) and gave up 189 hits (5th most)
He has talent but that does not equate to success. He’s trending down.
Top 20 in baseball? Are you his mom?
He’s the third best pitcher on his own team, and no better than 8th in the NL East (Degrom, Thor, Corbin, Scherzer, Strasburg, Nola, and Soroka). We can argue about a couple others too (Keuchel, Fried, Alcantara, C. Smith).
He might be top 20 in the NL, especially if you really value innings pitched
No offense to the Mets fans themselves, but who wants to stay a Met with all the turmoil surrounding their manger/ gym and ownership?
He’s a Georgia boy. I wouldn’t be surprised if he signed with this Braves this offseason. If he can’t beat ’em (check his numbers against the Braves in the past few years), join em.
Bumgarner will probably get those dollars considering he’s not far from the area as well. And having a lefty with Bums track record, especially in the playoffs will be appealing.
Curious to see what he gets. He’s been something short of great, but still very good, for two seasons. He has a pretty checkered injury and his shoulder flared this season, always a red flag. He’s not young- he’ll be 30 next season.
I could see 3 years between $50-$60 million. More years than that, unless at a significant yearly discount (maybe 5 years $75 million) I’d pass.
Wouldn’t shock me if he becomes this years Keuchel/Kimbrel; holds out for a $100 million contract that isn’t coming and by the time he’s willing to come down and do a short term deal teams won’t touch him because of the draft pick compensation.
Maybe he can pay the Mets back for the two years he was on payroll and never played a game?