The Blue Jays and their fans were surely excited to see a potential wave of young talent reach the Majors, with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio all debuting in 2019, but the team’s pitching proved to be a disaster. Toronto starters posted a combined 5.25 ERA, and that number includes Marcus Stroman’s pre-trade contributions. Cut out his 124 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball, and non-Stroman Blue Jays starters recorded a 5.74 ERA.
As such, it was hardly a surprise to hear general manager Ross Atkins declare that his organization plans to “look for pitching in every possible way” this offseason when meeting with the media yesterday (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). That’s probably a bit of hyperbole, as no one’s expecting the Jays to be prime suitors for Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner. However, Atkins also suggested that simply acquiring filler won’t be good enough. Rather, the the Jays need arms they can “count on” to “contribute in significant ways.”
Currently, the Blue Jays’ rotation is virtually bereft of certainty. Trent Thornton led Toronto starters with 139 1/3 innings. But while he showed an ability to miss bats and had some positive stretches, the collective results (5.04 ERA, 4.80 FIP) were lackluster. No other pitcher currently on the Jays’ roster even tossed 70 innings as a starter. Right-hander Jacob Waguespack managed a 4.13 ERA with lesser peripherals in 65 1/3 innings. Injuries wiped out Ryan Borucki’s season. Veteran Matt Shoemaker gave the Jays 28 2/3 innings with a 1.57 ERA (3.95 FIP) before suffering an ACL tear early in the season. Lefty Anthony Kay, acquired in the Stroman trade, should get a chance to log a high volume of innings next year.
The Blue Jays, notably, still have Shoemaker under club control. He signed last winter after being non-tendered by the Angels but only had four-plus years of service time. He’s still shy of six years of service, meaning the Blue Jays can control him via arbitration. Atkins didn’t tip his hand with regard to Shoemaker’s status, though Nicholson-Smith suggests that Shoemaker is open to a multi-year deal (Twitter link). Such an arrangement, presumably, would buy out Shoemaker’s final arbitration season and give Toronto an additional year of relatively cheap control. Simply retaining Shoemaker via arbitration wouldn’t be an onerous financial commitment, as his 2019 salary checked in at just $3.5MM.
Realistically, though, the Blue Jays shouldn’t fret much over any levels of spending. Toronto has only $29MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2020, and their arbitration class only features one player in line for a notable raise: closer Ken Giles, who’ll be an offseason trade candidate anyway. Giles is due a raise on this season’s $6.3MM salary. Beyond him, Shoemaker, Devon Travis ($1.925MM in 2019), Ryan Tepera ($1.525MM), Brandon Drury ($1.3MM), Ryan Dull ($860K), Derek Law (pre-arb) and Luke Maile (pre-arb) are the only players who are in line for raises. Travis, Dull and Maile are non-tender candidates.
To that end, Atkins indicated that the Jays plan to spend more aggressively this winter than in the past two offseasons, stating that the “overall outlay will be more significant” than last year while voicing a willingness to add salary in trades (Twitter link via Nicholson-Smith). Even looking past the market’s elite options, there’ll be useful starters for the Blue Jays to pursue. Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel and Tanner Roark are among the many second-tier options in free agency, and the trade market should offer additional names. Toronto isn’t lacking in outfield options that could be made available to other teams, with Anthony Alford, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Jonathan Davis and Billy McKinney all on the 40-man roster (in addition to the well-compensated Randal Grichuk and breakout left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.). None of that bunch is going to headline a deal for a marquee name, of course, but any could be a piece in a theoretical deal.
Looking to the team’s collection of position players, that glut of outfielders and the aforementioned emergence of several key infielders should give the team a promising (but still raw) lineup. Bichette and Biggio will comprise the team’s middle-infield tandem next season, and Atkins emphasized that the Jays are committed to Guerrero at third base, though they want him to improve his conditioning in the offseason. Danny Jansen showed pop and elite defensive skills behind the plate, even if his overall .207/.279/.360 batting line was obviously weak. He had a fairly productive three-month stretch from June to August (.243/.310/.459, 10 homers in 203 plate appearances), so there’s some hope for better days ahead.
A reunion with Justin Smoak at first base isn’t out of the question, Nicholson-Smith tweets, but the Jays have Rowdy Tellez as an option there and will likely look at more defensively versatile options in free agency. “It’d be nice to consider alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well,” Atkins said. Speculatively speaking, Todd Frazier, Neil Walker, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko are among the many infield options on this year’s market who have experience at multiple positions, and as with the pitching market, there will be alternatives available via trade.
It should be noted that a promise of increased offseason spending doesn’t necessarily mean an increase in the team’s Major League payroll. Toronto opened the 2019 season at $114.5MM, and given the numerous pre-arbitration players occupying key roster spots, upping the actual payroll would mean taking on perhaps more than $60MM in 2020 salary alone. That may technically be plausible based on previous payroll levels — the Jays peaked at $163MM in 2017 — but team president Mark Shapiro cautioned against being the team that “wins the offseason” only to fall shy of postseason play. A more aggressive winter seems certain, but the Jays probably won’t be going for broke just yet.
Believe it when I see it. I see Wei-Yen Chen, Tyler Chatwood, and some other over paid pitchers coming to Toronto (Jake McGee, Brett Cecil) as dead money additions with some prospects. The only ways this regime has used payroll well is taking on money to pry an interesting player back, I sense they’ll follow the same pathway. Can’t imagine too many FA pitchers are interested in playing for a 95 loss team with a brutal defence.
The one offseason they paid Happ, Pearce, Estrada, and Morales
LaCava signed Happ as an interim GM.
That’s still on Shapiro though. An interim gm probably doesn’t have the authority to spend money like that aha.
Happ and Estrada were the 2015-16 offseason. Pearce and Morales were the next offseason. Signing two DHs along with an aging Bautista that same offseason can also be put on Shapiro. Money not well spent.
Yep they were all signed under him as well
I don’t see any FA pitchers with a long contract when both Shapiro and Atkins could become free agents in a year.
So rather than trading for one year of some suspect pitchers you want the Blue Jays to be the ones giving out the initial contracts to the Chatwoods and Chens of the world? Because that is generally what free agency is.
That Chen deal will go to Wheeler and he could bomb just as hard. The Chatwood deal could go to Gibson and same potential there. Have fun with the long-term junk.
Zack Wheeler throws 98 with 3 other pitches that grade well. He’s been a 4 win pitcher twice. His ceiling is significantly higher than anybody you mentioned. You shouldn’t chase floor in free agency, chase ceiling. Wheeler can alter a franchise, especially one like the Blue Jays
Didn’t you read properly what he said? He has a high ceiling doesn’t mean he is bust proof, how many top agents panned out after they signed with different teams? As you have the world of Scherzers you have the dozen type of Yu Darvishes.
I’d love if those OF’s brought back anything of value lol.
Haha ya I mean shoot, I feel like every organization has a few post hype AAAA tweener outfielders without options. I don’t see why teams would be interested (especially as 40 man spots are so valuable in the offseason).
A team with their revenue streams, and they have about only 40M spoken for (between guarantees and projectable arbitration)? And you wonder why the MLBPA is threatening to strike?
So your point is to spend money recklessly just because they can? Brilliant approach to business.
Oh ya. Decimating the brand by not even bothering to compete is a much better business model. There’s a reason why attendance is down and tv ratings are hemorrhaging; “tanking” has almost single handedly destroyed the game; it will be years before the industry recovers.
Fantasy isn’t reality.. A team with their resources not even trying will eat up their franchise value a lot quicker than slow games and all that other nonsense.
A real business idiot (by the name of Ray Kroc) once said to worry more about KEEPING your customer than getting new ones. Amazing he did OK…..
I didn’t know Ross was such a big rock and roll fan.
I think it would be a mistake to try and close the gap between the Jays and the Rays/Yankees in one offseason. That would mean doling out sketchy contracts to ring in players that likely won’t live up to the level hoped for.
Signing one or two second tier starters to short-ish contracts would seem prudent. Deciding who is worth keeping in the OF and unloading the rest needs to be mandatory. I like Smoak, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense to bring him back. Clearing 1st base for a younger player seems smart to me.
Agreed. Put all players in a spreadsheet, sort by WAR or some other sabermetrics, and get a couple of them in the Top 30 or so.
Well said Batty. We think guys are a lock at certain positions as of today. In 8 months that may not be the case. Bringing back Smoak makes zero sense when you have 5 outfielders to rotate. Having the DH spot open would allow more at bats for those players.
Alford, Fisher, McKinney, and Grichuk are worth a 6 pack of Moosehead. I’d punt on those 4 and start over. Devon Travis in a corner would be preferable to any of those 4 seeing the field at all.
Lol we got a Devon Travis Truther
Travis should be non tendered.
I’ll be surprised if the Jays keep him.
Don’t forget Teoscar Hernandez and his inconsistent bat and his brutal defence.
I think Cole Hamels would be a front runner. Toronto has a decent track record in squeezing a couple good seasons out of veteran pitchers. I would imagine 3-5 years at $15-20 million would lock him up.
Ummm no.
The rest of us would imagine it would be more like 2-3 years.
Nevermind. I would imagine if he receives the QO from the Cubs he won’t hit the open market.
At 35, he will no doubt be seeking 5 years. 2-3 is realistic, but, I would imagine the less years the higher the price.
Not for Toronto. Not a good fit at this time.
Keuchel as support for future ace Pearson. Shoemaker to give some veteran depth at the top of rotation next season. Boreucki, Zeuch,Kay should be competitive too.
Pass on Keuchel. Too expensive
I don’t see the Jays adding much salary whatsoever and not nearly as much as Ross would have the fanbase believe. Ticket sales were dreadful and if we’re being being realistic in looking at next season for the Jays its bleak. 75-80 wins would be a huge improvement and of course not anywhere close to postseason contention.
Relax those expectations fellow Jays fans it might be a very slow winter.
Time will tell
teams could care less about ticket sales. They make most of there money from TV deals.
Never a slow winter. Hockey is back, Jays are long forgotten at this point.
When you run a franchise into the ground with 95 losses you’re going to take a backseat to other sports
Its great to see that Shapiro and Atkins have identified the obvious need for starting pitching. The real problem with that is these two couldn’t recognize a good starter if they tried
They are the duo that brought us Norris, Jackson, Richards and several others who didn’t last long enough to have a cup of coffee.
Jays have some good looking young prospects but it takes time to develop a good rotation and hopefully these two won’t be around that long.
Huh? No. Dude, whatever you may think of Shapiro’s decisions during his time with the Blue Jays, it is almost inarguable that Shapiro & co built the best pitching staff in the American League this decade: Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, Bauer, Tomlin, Anderson, Clevinger.
You don’t have to take my word for it. Go look at the stat sheets from 2015 to 2018. Four years right at the top of the charts.
There is no doubt that Shapiro/Atkins can build a farm system and acquire amateur talent.
Many in the industry know that the Jays biggest weakness is professional scouting. They have very few scouts following other teams minor league systems. Atkins does his scouting by looking at his laptop. That would also explain the Jays poor trading record and poorer free agent signing record. Right now Atkins thought process is to claim everyone and see what shakes out. This will win nothing in the long term.
Even though the BlueJays mgmt have correctly identified they need starting pitching (duh), I seriously doubt these two have the stones to get elite players and have the ability except by fluke or numbers to sign anyone of talent.
The first need in the offseason is to re-establish the awesome scouting machine they had under Gillick and to some degree under AA. That might mean replacing Atkins too.
Then what is needed is to for elite players only. This nonsense of signing middle of the road cheaper players has to stop. Beeston could have got this done.