Pitchers and catchers report in a few days. Spring Training games are less than two weeks away. Actual baseball is right around the corner, which means it’s officially “best shape of his life” season. There will be countless stories around the league about offseason improvements for virtually every player.
These days, those anecdotes are typically punctuated by a reference to Driveline or another facility of its ilk. And they almost always pertain to a flaw from the previous year. A hitter who struggled to make hard contact did swing speed training in the winter. A pitcher who faded in the second half changed his diet to improve endurance.
A trio of starters stand out as needing to make drastic changes heading into the 2026 season. Two of them are well on their way, while the third is more of a question mark. Here’s a quick rundown of each pitcher through the lens of the challenge they face in the upcoming year.
Michael Lorenzen vs. Coors Field
The veteran righty encounters this obstacle of his own volition. It’s one of the most imposing impediments in all of sports. Lorenzen signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Rockies, which means he’ll call Coors Field home. The venue trumps all others in terms of offensive production. Coors easily tops Statcast’s Park Factors leaderboard, scoring a 113 over the past three seasons. Fenway Park is a distant second at 104. Coors Field is No. 1 in park effect for hits, runs, singles, and OBP from 2023 to 2025.
Fortunately, Lorenzen already has a plan. He intends to lean on an eight-pitch mix to conquer Coors Field. “I feel like I own the shapes (of my pitches) … I just know what I’m trying to do, I know what the feel is I’m looking for and the shape I’m trying to create,” Lorenzen told reporters, including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. “But, obviously, being in Colorado is going to have its challenges, so I’ll be making my way up there soon to throw a few bullpens and just see exactly how these shapes are going to move.”
Lorenzen threw seven pitches last season, per Baseball Savant. He only used the sweeper 8.2% of the time, but every other offering was above 10%. Lorenzen’s most common pitch was his four-seamer, though he still only threw it at a 22% clip. The 34-year-old righty scuffled to a 4.64 ERA with Kansas City. He was likely looking at a depth starter/swingman role at other destinations, but signing with Colorado will give him a good chance to slot into a rotation.
“We didn’t have to convince him of anything; he ran toward this challenge,” head of baseball operations Paul DePodesta said. “Michael definitely wanted to pitch here. … I don’t think he’s afraid of anything. This is a challenge that he was actually (eager) to take on.”
Roki Sasaki vs. A Starter’s Arsenal
Maybe Lorenzen can loan Sasaki a couple of pitches. He’ll need them as he transitions back to the rotation. The NPB import struggled in his first taste of the big leagues, posting a 4.46 ERA with 28 strikeouts to 22 walks across eight starts. Sasaki hit the IL in May with a shoulder injury. He returned at the tail end of the season and emerged as the best reliever in the Dodgers’ bullpen. Sasaki allowed just one earned run across 10 2/3 innings in the postseason. He racked up three saves and two holds.
Sasaki’s splitter was as advertised, recording a strong 37.2% whiff rate as his go-to punchout pitch. The rest of the repertoire left much to be desired. Sasaki threw his fastball about half the time. It rarely missed bats (11.1% whiff rate) and was clobbered for a .500 SLG. Sasaki threw a slider 16.3% of the time, but it had a zone rate below 40%.
The plan is for Sasaki to return to the rotation in 2026. Blake Snell‘s slow buildup this offseason could make it easier to fit Sasaki. Relying on a fastball/splitter combo isn’t normally a viable approach for a starter, and manager Dave Roberts agrees. “He needs to develop a third pitch,” Roberts told Dylan Hernandez for the New York Post.“It’s going to need to be something that goes left.”
Sasaki is working on a cutter and a two-seamer, per Hernandez. The former would fit the bill as something that moves away from a right-handed hitter. Both pitches could help Sasaki find the zone more frequently. He had a 59.3% strike rate last year, nearly 5% below league average.
Shota Imanaga vs. His Floundering Fastball
Imanaga’s “rising” fastball was the primary driver behind his success in 2024. The pitch, coupled with an elite splitter and a smattering of breaking balls, carried the left-hander to a sub-3.00 ERA with standout control in his rookie season. Imanaga got off to a strong start in 2025, but the wheels came off following a hamstring strain in early May. The veteran scuffled to a 4.14 ERA after returning from the IL. He gave up 24 home runs in 17 starts. The struggles continued in the playoffs, as Imanaga was tagged for six earned runs in 6 2/3 postseason innings, including three more homers.
The fastball was clearly different after the injury. Imanaga’s heater slipped by half a tick in velocity and by 1.6 inches in induced vertical break. The pitch’s Stuff+ went from a strong 112 to an underwhelming 98. (h/t to Carson Wolf on X for digging up those splits)
If Imanaga’s fastball doesn’t have its elite characteristics, the home runs will keep coming. Hitters have put the ball in the air against Imanaga at a hefty 66.1% clip in his two MLB seasons. Those balls were finding the gloves of outfielders when his arsenal was most effective, but they were getting squared up and leaving the yard last year.
Maybe an offseason of rest for the hamstring will be the relief Imanaga needs to get back on track. A tweak here or there could also alleviate the concerns with his primary pitch. Either way, Imanaga will be one to watch closely this spring.
Photo courtesy of William Liang, Imagn Images
No Spencer Strider?
Heydude:
Same type of pitcher as Sasaki. With the same problem. Strider is also a 2 pitch pitcher. Fastball/Slider. His fastball is elite or it was elite. Doesn’t have a taxing windup but has a huge stride, he’s not really a big guy so to keep throwing so hard can’t be easy. When I first saw him I thought when will he break? He is fun to watch when it’s working and when it’s not they hit it far so either way he’s very entertaining. Hope he gets back to throwing heat.
One third of all Rs Strider gave up came during 3 consecutive starts in early AUG. He quickly lighted ship from there. But when one gives up 20 Rs oer 3 starts and sees ERA spike by 1.50+ in that span the #s for the entire season are going to have a lasting effect.
I have low expectations for all three. I could easily see Roki and Shota moved to the bullpen by mid-season. Lorenzen should keep his starting spot, but have Freeland type results, even though they are totally different kinds of pitchers.
Hope that I am mistaken, especially about Imanaga.
With five more years of control, I don’t see Roki being relegated to the pen any time soon. It’s also not what he signed up for. MLB is an adjustment and even Aroldis Chapman had a longer leash. The Dodgers don’t need another closer with Diaz. Tanner Scott should also be having a better season.
I agree with everything that you said. But results will still dictate the outcome. And relievers are needed in innings other than the 8th and 9th. You should earn your spot based on merit, not pedigree.
Yet we all know better than that. Pedigree counts tons because pedigree, in this case, is the sum of the teams scouting and analytics
It doesn’t really matter what Sasaki signed up for, he wont be a FA til 2031. Sasaki’s $6.5M signing bonus has already been paid. Hes making $820K, so I dont see the financial impact being a reason they would view him as a rotation must. Not that the Dodgers in any way seem to be impacted by the cost of their payroll.
Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Ohtani, and Sheenhan already all have rotation spots. Knack seems very likely to start some games and they should see return of Stone and River Ryan during the season.
So viewing Sasaki as a fixture of rotation seems to be a long shot unless he comes out hot in Spring and doesnt slow down a bit into season. If he falters again at all I think its a certainty he ll end up in Pen and or sent down. The Dodgers have spent a ton of $ to win now, so Sasaki’s development is far from their primary concern. Plus pitching out of Pen and timely spot starts could do alot for his development and help him establish a comfort level pitching in MLB.
Well, as was said in the article, Sasaki making the rotation depends on his developing an effective third pitch. For him, spring training will be more about this than whether he comes out of camp hot or not. Both the team and the player knows what has to happen. If the repertoire remains an issue, the more likely scenario than him going to the bullpen is working on it in the minors. His use as a reliever last season was out of desperation. It is not the new plan for Sasaki.
@Blue Well considering I was replying to a reply not commenting on said article your was unnecessary nor does it apply to what I was saying to said response. Im in agreement with the article and was pointing out other reasons in addition to what was already stated and was being said in addition to.
As for coming out of Spring hot its not whether or not he does, because their are those things that have to happen. Due to that, the only reality I see Sasaki cementing a solidified roll is getting scorching hot to the point they wont remove him. Even in a best case scenario that seems very unlikely. Dodgers have a ton of talent and a ton more returning. Sasaki is still young and has a ton of talent that hopefully and probably will see much success at MLB level.
To further elaborate on what I had originally responded to; what Sasaki signed up for not only does not really matter but also makes no sense. If Sasaki was looking for a guaranteed MLB rotation spot Dodgers would be the worst choice of teams. You dont sign with a team overflowing with SPs and almost a 2nd rotation in waiting on IL. Id say he signed up for a team that will invest in its young talent where he ll one day thrive, would not throw him to the fire, location, and ultimately the comfort of fellow Japanese players and already established marketing opportunities in his home country.
Well, I was responding to your argument suggesting that “hotness” is the determining factor in whether he makes the rotation out of camp. In reality, he could have a spectacular spring training, but management is still going to be looking at whether his third pitch is coming along, because ultimately this is what is required for him to make it as a starter in the bigs. If not, they are unlikely to fold him into an already overcrowded bullpen but send him back to OKC to work on it. I suspect the player will be completely onboard with this because, as you say, he signed with the Dodgers as the team best equipped to develop his skills.
It’s always a bit silly to use the word “guarantee” and “baseball” in the same sentence. My guess is few who play the game do, because if baseball guarantees anything, it’s that it guarantees nothing.
To be clear: I was responding entirely to your comment, and not attempting to untangle the entire thread. This commenting system makes figuring out who was responding to who nearly impossible.
Since you are cherrypicking select portions of my comment to try and pivot from your original narrative, as tho I was commenting on what was said in the article… I never stated anything was a “determining factor”. The context of my reply to another comment as a whole is what matters, trying to pick select segments of a comment is laughable. You seem to be seeking an argument and you swung and missed. Next are you going to start moving word around and reformulating sentences??
To be clear on commenting, when a comment is a reply to a comment it is directed and comment being replied to or something in that thread(would never have guessed an explanation was needed).
And yes if Sasaki lights it up in spring training just like most any player(service time related issues aside)hes likely going to be part of rotation. Id say its pretty clear he has a short leash at this point til proven otherwise. So I think it is very unlikely unless they get decimated with injuries.
Again tho I was replying to someone alluding to Sasaki having had signed with impression he was immediately gonna be and stay a member of rotation. That obviously wasnt the case.
Uh, what?
Yeah just do anything but admit you made a mistake….
Hard to see Imanaga being useful out of the bullpen. If he keeps getting tagged for homers, there might be an awkward mid-season release coming.
He is in camp, and saying it was all the hamstring, hope he’s right.
I predict a 6.87 ERA this season for Lorenzen although he will pitch a memorable no hitter at some point as well.
What’s always wild to me is how much baseball is weighed over the last few months of production. Shogo had a solid season. He just wore down like the majority of the league does as the season went on. Nothings wrong w that dude
No one realizes how much a leg injury affects pitchers. Shogo will most likely be fine. Not sure why his catcher didn’t have him throwing his secondary pitches more if he knew of his injury but then again everyone is in love with the heater any more instead of being a proponent of smart pitching.
Stop trying to be Fangraphs. This is a lightly-researched article that looks like it belongs on a fan blog. You’re a transaction-focused website, and you are not talking at all about these guys’ contracts or potential future moves. You don’t even mention that it’s a walk year for Shota! Instead some weak attempt at statistical analysis. Stay in your lane.