Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is just moments away from taking the ball against the Nationals in Game 1 of the teams’ World Series matchup. It’s a well-deserved honor for Cole, who has perhaps been the premier pitcher in baseball this season. The 29-year-old logged a sterling 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 13.82 K/9 against 2.03 BB/9 over 212 1/3 regular-season innings in 2019. He was far and away the league leader in strikeouts (326), totaling 26 more than second-place finisher and Astros co-ace Justin Verlander.
Since his incredible regular season ended, Cole has added to his mystique with what has been a legendary playoff run. Cole dismantled the Rays and Yankees over three starts and 22 2/3 innings during the AL playoffs, yielding a mere one earned run on 10 hits with 32 strikeouts against eight walks. Unsurprisingly, the Astros went 3-0 in those games.
Cole may next help pitch the Astros to a World Series title in the coming days, but he’ll have plenty ahead of him after that. Not only does Cole look like a strong possibility to win his first Cy Young Award when the Fall Classic ends, but he might be weeks from scoring the largest contract a pitcher has ever received. To this point, just four hurlers – David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer (Cole’s Game 1 World Series opponent) and Zack Greinke (now a Cole teammate) – have landed guarantees of $200MM or more. For now, the most valuable pact ever continues to belong to Price, whom the Red Sox signed for seven years and $217MM entering 2016.
There may have been skepticism earlier in the season in regards to Cole’s chances of joining Price and the rest of the $200MM club, but there shouldn’t be anymore. The question now doesn’t seem to be whether Cole, a pending free agent, will land a $200MM-plus guarantee; rather, it’s by how much his next deal will exceed that mark. The only potential free-agent starter who’s anywhere close to Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, a World Series foe, but he’s not even a lock to reach the open market. For Strasburg, doing so would mean opting out of the four years and $100MM left on his pact. Should Strasburg do it? Probably. But even if he does, it won’t preclude Cole from securing one of the richest (if not the richest) contracts anyone in the game has ever received.
It’s not hard to imagine deep-pocketed teams like Cole’s Astros, the Angels, Yankees, Nats, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants, not to mention lower-payroll clubs like the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Padres, among those in the mix for his services. So, there ought to be plenty of competition for Cole, which should help agent Scott Boras’ cause as he shops his star client around the league during the offseason. With Boras’ help, Cole may be on the verge of reeling in the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. Do you expect it to happen?
(Poll link for app users)
If anyone is going to do it, then it’s him. $200+M for an arm seems absurd, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
7/$210M is likely floor he gets
If he doesn’t it will only be because he chose to take a shorter deal with a higher annual value.
Wouldn’t it be interesting if he did 2/90 somewhere? Would anyone offer something like that?
His best two years of baseball might still be in there and most would think he could carry their team over the top. He would hit the market again at 31, coming off great seasons, so he could get another big contract at a much lower average annual rate. Maybe the Astros would give him that contract and try to run it back a few more times with this core. Then do a huge diarrhea wash again in 2022.
Did I read that wrong? Did he leave open the possibility Cole might “secure THE richest contract ANYONE IN THE GAME has ever received? The term ” “anyone in the game” would definitely include position players. I don’t see how it is even possible anyone could think he might even come close to Trouts $360 million extension. He won’t even come close to Harpers $330 mill or Machado’s $300M. I think it is pretty obvious he won’t touch Miggy’s $290+M or A-Rods $275M. In fact he won’t even get to A-Rods 2nd biggest contract at $252M which means he can’t catch Pujols at $254M. That’s at least 7 contracts off the top of my head that I am sure he won’t catch.
Pretty sure he meant for pitchers. He will likely exceed Price’s 7/217m deal. I’m guessing talks start at 7/220m and go from
there with 7-8 yrs at $240-255m being the top bid.
Angels will sign him 8 years 235 million
I think you’re barking up the right tree. Anaheim for 7/$238M is my prediction.
Cardinals will offer 4 and $80M then Mozeliak will tell all his followers they finished a close 2nd in the bidding.
The market wasn’t there—-Sleepy Mo
Angels 7/$240-245M
Yanks are gonna push the price up.
And I will break my neck attempting a back flip out of sheer excitement! 🙂
I think you are probably right here….I wouldn’t sleep on San Diego either. The SD front office is ready for a winner and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go all in. Cole wants West coast and I would expect it’s either of those or the Dodgers.
He is t playing for AJ Preller who hasn’t a clue.
San Diego already has its sights set on Porcello and MadBum. They HAVE to over pay at least one guy per year in order to keep up their end of the owners’ conspiracy against the MLBPA.
I just don’t think he will get enough years to get paid that – starting pitching isn’t like a position player where you can bank on having a generally serviceable guy late into his career
Angels / Yankees / White Sox / Padres / Dodgers / Phillies / Twins
A lot of contending possible buyers out there.
He’ll definitely top it.
One thing I’m wondering on the side is if any team will give Felix a shot.
Twins won’t spend that much for a pitcher.
Unfortunately….Because of team president of baseball operations, John Mozeliak, the Cardinals will not make an honest attempt to sign Cole. Mozeliak has already got too much DEAD MONEY in the contracts to washed up players on the Cardinals Books. Mozeliak loves what he calls Low Hanging Fruit. Well…All of his fruit from past signings have rotted. The Cardinals should go after Cole!!! They have to sign an impact #1 or #2 starter and an Impact CONTACT HITTER. In every Cardinals Fan’s opinion, Mozeliak can’t balusters true talent because he uses analytics EXCLUSIVELY.
Wasn’t that supposed to be Goldschmidt?
It time for Mo to go
29 isn’t a spring chicken, with his velocity etc there is always that concern like an over used RB in football. I can only imagine what kind of contract he will get though when teams will mortgage the future.
Why it it people think power pitchers are more likely to break down than soft tossing pitchers. I’d much rather have a power pitcher at 29 than a soft tossing pitcher at 29.
Who is the best 29 year old soft tossing pitcher in the last 20 years? Jered Weaver?
He was done two years later
I’d much rather have a hard throwing pitcher, I think the odds of him aging well are much better. .
Pitchers are gambles, but give me the one with the arm.
Jamie Moyer. And he pitched into his 40’s quite successfully.
Just saying.
For the record, Despite playing in 2012, Moyer is 56 years old. Twenty years ago, he was 36. He was already old by the posters standards v 29 in reference.
Moyer was never a big velo guy like Cole is, even in his prime.
At 29 Moyer didn’t pitch in the Major Leagues.
Moyer got his first Cy Young vote at age 36. He made his first all star team at 40.
Your argument against Moyer is that he wasn’t in the majors at 29? You hurt your own argument. Shocking!
Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. Not power pitchers. Long career. Very few arm issues.
Jered Weaver could rise up to 94 mph in college. Which was good at the time.
Cole is worth the gamble. Very likely he’ll wind up breaking down but that’s the risk you run with power arms. Still, pay the man IF you are all in for 2020. Angels aren’t all in for 2020.
Cole has excellent mechanics which allows him to consistently repeat his delivery. He also has excellent breaking stuff and outstanding control which should allow him to age well. I think he gets 7/225.
Try taking a look at the giants’ staff from 2009-14 a ton of outstanding years by a lot of pitchers that maybe topped mid 90s both starting and in the pen. The 2 that come to mind first are 2012 heroes zito and vogelsong
Angels. 6 years 240 million. Gets 240 because of California taxes. 6 for 210-228 if he goes anywhere else
I can see Gerrit Cole getting 7/$235MM-$245MM considering the amount of teams involved. I think the Angeles bow out quick once the bidding goes past $220MM. He’ll be seriously pursued by the following teams: Astros, Phillies, Yankees, ChiSox and Padres.
The Angels will bow out quick because they don’t like playing games that Boras likes to play.
Cole will have to choose the Angels. Their offer will be very competitive. The extra 20 million over 7 years is not going to be a factor.
Hometown or not, you’re kidding yourself if you think he takes less money.
ChiSoxCity.
I think you missed my point.
1) you stated the Angels will go as high as 220, but he’ll sign for 235 to 245. I’m saying the extra 20 million will not be a factor for the Angles.
2) The Angels will make him that offer early. Cole will choose to take it or he wont. The Angels are not going to wait two months for Cole to choose the Angels. If Cole does not choose the Angels, the offer will be withdrawn and the Angels will move on. The Angels very well could be the highest bidder, but that bid wont be on the table for very long.
The Angels were likely the highest bidder on Moustakas. It is rumored the Angels offered him three years at 45 million. Boras played with the Angels and they signed Cozart.
Good or bad, that’s the way Moreno does business. He HATES being used as leverage. .
I agree Mac. If Cole wants to play for the Angels, he should sign early regardless of the games Boras tries to play. Hopefully Moreno won’t play with Boras. He will move on, which he should.
Keuchel sat out unsigned until June thanks to Boras and only got a prorated 1 year deal.
Mac, I get what you’re saying. Elite free agents hold all the leverage though. If a GM acts impatiently in these situations, he’s doing his club a disservice. Obviously there are other options with Madbum, Stras and Wheeler.
Strasburg is not on the market.
It’s widely assumed Strasburg will decline his option for more years/and or a bigger AAV.
Signing Cole will be an owner level decision, not the GM. As Mac said it’s the way Moreno does business, take it or leave it rather quickly. The Angels need pitching can’t wait months on one to decide and let other options fall through the cracks.
chisox – It’s widely speculated that Strasburg will decline his option. People are basing their assumptions on speculation, not facts.
Moreno has done a pretty good job getting the top tier free agents they want. Vlad, Colon, Pujols, Hamilton, CJ Wilson, were all short negotiations.
Getting a top tier free agents has never been the Angels problem. It’s the right free agent that has been the problem.
The Angels will bow out because Eppler is another clueless GM. WHY SIGN A STUD WHEN YOU CAN BRING BACK THE DARK KNIGHT.
read your post and tell us who is clueless. of course, you, the clueless one, wouldn’t know what was wrong with your post.
If Cole chooses the Angels, he will end up just like Pujols and Trout. Great baseball talented player. Players who sit in their own living room, eating Popcorn, watching the World Series on television!!!!!
what’s tonight’s lotto number, mr. fortuneteller?
Uncle Mike – at what point would Angels haters believe the Angels have a chance at the post season? It seems no matter what moves they make, they are never good enough for you to consider they have a chance.
This is a serious question, not a ribbing.
Vixionaire.
Haters gotta hate. They can’t have rational discussions so they resort to trash.
If hyperbole was a crime, most of the posters on message boards would be in jail.
The Tokyo Giants stand a better chance of signing him than the low-Sox.
Is that desperation I hear?
John Middleton will give him idiotic money (not just stupid money ) to don red pinstripes.
8/220. White Sox are my bet.
Nationals – 240m/7(0) years
7/240-245
6 years at 200 million.
I think Cole is one of the best pure “power pitcher” in the recent era (2000-) to be a free agent in his prime. I think a rational market would give him 32MM+ a year for a seven year term, and hope he gets it (he’s a hell of a competitor)
I think the market won’t bear this; I think him and Rendon are going to get shortchanged in the FA marketplace this winter; which will almost certainly lead to more friction between MLBPA and the owners.
Rational – 7/224 (Angels or Padres)
Actual – 6/200 (Angels)
Cole will get it. Rendon won’t.
I have a feeling if the Yankees get involved (whether they win or not) you are looking at 7/250 or maybe 8/300. That might be high, but it is what it might take to get him off the coast (go Twins).
First batter Springer walks…on a pitch-tracker strike!!! Not only should he not have reached base, the Stros should not have scored two runs!!! Fraudulently manufactured game outcomes by umps!!! Can’t wait for the machines to call balls and strikes. It will be a giant leap forward for the sport.
Have a block of cheese.
Obviously a Stros who fan who loves winning by fraud.
Yea and the Yankees get no calls at all.
That was a pitch-tracker strike THREE!!! Ump turned a game-opening strikeout into a walk. Happens every single day. Right in front of everyone. No accountability. Sucks!!!
Just called a ball several inches off the plate a strike against Rendon. Ump is in it for Stros.
Strike two on Altuve (3rd inning) called a ball. Pitch-tracker doesn’t lie. Umps do. Ump is clearly in the bag for the Stros. Maybe he’s just got a problem with Max. Who knows? That’s why we need the machines to take over the strike zone. Umps suck.
Good gawd, you freakin’ obnoxious Nats homer, SHUT UP.
The ump is not in for the Astros. That is ridiculous. Perfectly calling balls and strikes is impossible. My Father was a professionally-trained umpire that took great pride in his work as an umpire because he’s a lifelong lover of baseball. Yet, he would tell you that there is no perfection because there are too many moving factors in it-particularly with a pitcher like Scherzer who has run on his fastball, sharp bite on his slider, run and sink on his change, and an occasional curve. On top of that, catchers [rightfully so] add difficulty to the situation not only through simple framing.
Now, perhaps getting rid of human umpires is the right thing to do, like you said… However, it is silly to blame the umpires for an occasional error when it is impossible to be error-free, the technology is new, and umpires have been used for well over 100 years.
You’re 100 percent right. Pitches have exceeded a human beings ability to call strikes. I think most umpires rely on the catcher. In this case he’s crying about, the pitcher missing the catcher’s location. That is almost always going to be called a ball and every catcher and pitcher knows it.
I’m a big fan of robo-umps. There are some drawbacks, such as the beauty of a catcher receiving a ball. Not to mention the SB will become harder, but I’d much rather have a clean game called.
Keep the umpires and have a challenge for the strike zone like tennis does for line calls. Baseball could do the same and keep the human component while increasing accuracy.
Mo4ever – Ump made a deal with Springer that later in the game he wouldn’t hustle to help his team win a game. Springer returned the favor by not being on 3rd on what should have been an easy triple on the ball Eaton dropped. Yes, dropped.
When machines come into play, and if the settings are letters to knees, expect some near-dirt curves called strikes as we’ve seen them cross the knees from the side angles TV shows us. Fans will lose their minds.
Boras’ 3 principal focuses on Gerrit Cole’s contract.
1. Higher Average Annual Value than Zack Greinke’s $34.417M on his 6 Yrs $206.5M deal.
2. Larger Total Guarantee than David Price as mentioned in the article $217M
3. Does he push for an 8th Yr to set new precedent? How open is he to working with ownership on deferring significant portions of the money (Interest Free).
Yankees don’t have a history of deferring money which is valuable in their pursuit of Cole. They’ve got the cash. Neither do the Angels for that sake.
Does BIlly Eppler determine Angels should pursue multiple Arms (say Jake Odorrizi, Dallas Kuechel & bullpen help)? And is Arte Moreno willing to go all in given the contractual commitments he’s made to Trout, Pujols, Upton etc.
My Guess is either
7 Yrs $245.0M (Highest AAV & Total Guarantee)
8 Yrs $270 ($33.75M AAV).
Will Yankees break the bank? If not, I’d bet their fallback option is Zack Wheeler.
Yankees aren’t giving Cole $245 million. $270 million is absolutely comical. No player is worth taking up that large a percentage of any team’s payroll.
Its 14-15% of the Yankees payroll and a dozen teams have given a single player 20%.
So? That doesn’t make it the right thing to do.
Not Mike Trout?
No, not even Trout. It takes 25 players – 26, next year – to have a winning ballclub on the field each day. Trout’s humongous salary will eventually cost the Angels a player or two that they need but won’t be able to afford.
Greinke’s contract was worth less than that due to deferred money, MLB valued it at 6 years / 194M$.
Verlander’s new 33M$ per deal is the highest AAV for a pitcher.
Does this inflate okay starters like Wheeler or Odorizzi who are really just #3 guys.
Nah.
This post season might bring an emphasis back to starting pitching, which makes Cole certainly one of the most attractive FAs in history.
Who? The usual suspects; I think the Marlins will fall out early. Put a gun to my head and I’ll guess the Phillies.
This postseason definitely shows how much of an advantage having 2 or 3 ace-level starters can be.
The only question for me is will he also break the AAV record of $34.5 million. He will go well over $217
He will look good in brown and gold
White with brown pinstripes is what I have heard is the new Padres uniforms. You will see on Nov 9th, right?
Gold and Brown? Nobody will look good in gold&brown.
Since when does the Astros have the payroll to top the big market teams like NY, LA, Anaheim or Boston? I must have missed all these open checks that MLB issued teams! Houston in no way can afford to pay Cole the kind of money he’s going to bring along with all the other salaries they’re paying and figure in pay raises as well, I think the Astros are tapped out unless they choose to blow past the luxury tax by leaps and pay 70% tax on all those dollars! Simple logic, Astros aren’t going to break their future for a simple win now philosophy! I think everyone has learned that lesson from the Red Sox and Giants! Pretty sad state they’re in unless they can pull off some unbelievable trades!
Why can’t they? They are a huge market team and operated at a massive profit for the first five years that Crane owned the team (granted he did that specifically in order to pay down the debt he took on to purchase the team).
I’m glad you’ve opened our eyes to the bleak financial situation in Houston, Baseballfreak; Jim Crane is actually down to his last $2.5B dollars. It truly is sad…
Have you ever been to Houston? It is a large, densely populated area. Not quite NY, L.A., or Chicago, but certainly not Tampa or KC.
I can see the Yanks going as high as high as 8/$280
$40 x 6 + $20 x 2
Yanks can let Happ, Paxton and Tanaka walk at the end of 2020 and so they have a need. They might try and keep Paxton for another 3-4 years. Maybe Tanaka on a 1 year deal if he has a good walk year too.
I don’t think an eighth guaranteed year is a possibilty. Could a team offer Cole an 8th-year option based on reaching certain performance parameters? Sure. But I don’t see a 29-year old pitcher getting 8 guaranteed years.
@Saint Chris
I mentioned 5/$240 guaranteed. That shatters the aav of Greinke. The other two years are team options at $20 per. If he’s holding up well then he can make more otherwise they let him walk after 6 years.
No way the Yanks go to $280 million. They might go to $225 million, but they might not even go that high. Hal is not his father. I don’t see any team going 8 years, either. 6, yes. 7, maybe, but not 8
@southpaw2153
Again….Hal has shown he’s not cheap. When they traded for Stanton his $325 mil contract was the highest in any sport. Shoot, the Arod extension was the highest ever and that was signed off by Hal too.
Their’s a difference between wanting to get under the lux tax where a $25 mil contract would be $30 mil or more with the tax. Hal is trying to cut down on waste and overpay but it doesn’t mean he won’t pony up. He didn’t exactly get Ottavino, Britton or Happ on the cheap.
Big difference between his George and Hal/Cashman is he’s not overpaying for older declining vets past their prime in traded or FA. Still one of the few teams with a payroll north of $200 mil.
I think if it’s an elite player in his prime they will pay up. Paxton, Happ, Tanaka, and Ellsbury all come off the books after 2020. Other than Paxton and maybe Tanaka on a 1 year deal I don’t expect them to resign those guys.
You’re right. For all George’s shortcomings and failings (the 80’s), he valued the WS win. Hal does not. Hal would rather gamble it away than spend the way his father did to go all out. This year was a perfect example. At the trade deadline, they needed an ace pitcher and another serious reliever. Hal and Brian decided the available pitchers were to expensive and gambled with home field advantage and the postseason. Both of which they lost.
Signs with the Phillies. 35 years, and as compensation he receives the entire franchise and all Phanatic licensing rights.
Cole won’t be suiting up for the white trash Texan Trashtros, that’s for sure!
If anyone thinks he will play for the Yankees they are beyond delusional. Angels, Dodgers or Padres only. Cole himself said he’d happily play in Oakland with his BFF Chapman too, but they would never pony up the money for him so they’re out.
But mostly, Yankee fans need to stop. It’s not happening. California is getting Cole, period!
lolol
California can have him. He only has a hand in 32 games per year. Paying him $1 per start for 6 -7 years is a poor allocation of money.
Not if he delivers
He was also stated in the past that it would be cool to play with his brother-in-law. Personally, I’d rather that money go to filling several positions on the Giants roster.
I will not be excited in the least if Cole signs with the Yanks. However, delusional??? They were his favorite team growing up; and while annoying at times, Yankee fans are devoted to the core. They also drafted him out of high school and he turned them down for UCLA. It worked out for him well enough, but he ended up with the Pirates. As a Pirate fan, I can tell you he hated being a Pirate. He thought he was way too good for them the whole time there. Signing with New York would be a “full circle/righting a wrong” scenario in several ways. Could he still prefer SoCal or take top dollar somewhere else? Sure… but it’s not delusional in the least to think he signs with New York.
@Strike Four
Dude….he’s NEVER…..ever….came out and ruled out ANY city. Even if he had preference why would he eliminate ANY of the bigger markets? Boras would scream holly ish if he were that stupid.
Also, might I send you a picture of him as a kid attending a Yankee WS home game where he’s holding up a pic saying “Yankee fan today, tomorrow, forever”.
NOW…I’m NOT saying that because he was a fan that he will sign with the Yanks but let’s stop with this absolution about where he will or wont go and why. I’m sure he’s keeping that someone to himself.
pinstripealley.com/2008/6/7/547708/see-that-kid-ho…
He might, but he is 29 currently and he would have to exceed $35M for 6 years or $30M for 7 years. That will be tough to pay a pitcher for that many years when when he’ll be in his mid 30’s when the deal expires. Should be interesting off season.
However good Cole is today, I think a 7 or 8 year contract is foolish for a team to give a pitcher. I think 5 or 6 max. That puts him in his mid-30s at the end of the contract. A lot can change for a pitcher from 29 to 35 years old (Jared Weaver for example).
No prospective Gerit Cole bidder is going to comp him to Jered Weaver. They’re entirely different styles of pitchers. GM’s trying to sign him to 7 year deals will look to the success of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer–2 pitchers who have or had similar stuff to Cole at that age.
Saint Chris – You should read my comment again. I didn’t compare Cole’s talent to Weaver’s talent. I simply used Weaver as an example of what can happen to a pitcher from his late 20s into his mid 30s.
Read your comment again? I did, and I still think you’re a moron. You use Jered Weaver, owner of a mid-eighties fastball, to warn against signing Gerit Cole, owner of a 100mph fastball, long term.
I agree on not having too long of contracts on pitchers. In my dream world, Twins offer something like 5/200 or 5/225 and he accepts.
7 years and 32M$ per will get the job down.
I like 5/175.
Guy needs to go to the LA team (that’s the Dodgers halo clowns, your team in Anaheim the county of Orange PERIOD). The Halos have zero direction and with a GM in panic mode…. hold tight halo clowns.
And you’re the guy who said that Angels should have opened with Thaiss as the starting first baseman. 211/293/422 Matt Thaiss.
You almost never make a post what the Angels should do, but when you do, it’s obvious you have no clue.
Gerit Cole will be in the $245-$252m range over 7 years. It’s a copy-cat league, and the two teams in the WS have 3 ace-level pitchers each, and that’s what owners and GM’s (that are actually trying to compete) will be thinking about all off-season.
Dodgers. 3 years 120 mil.
Why would he do that?
$235MM-$245MM > $120MM.
I’m going to predict the Yankees for 8 years/$224. I’m also going to predict that he will be able to get a few million more elsewhere, but he will ultimately pick the Yankees, his favorite team growing up.
The real question is how much he will break it by!!! He is priceless
Slightly off topic here. Does anyone really think the Astros executive was thinking “Wow…I’m so glad we got Osuna (and so happy he avoided being disciplined for domestic abuse) let me turn to 3 female reporters and scream my enthusiasm because our wife-beater just won us a big game and nana nana boo boo to you feminists”???
I truly think he was happy Osuna got the win and just happened to say it to those in his immediate vicinity. They make it seem like he was taunting them.
So it’s ok that he avoided suspension and can play but you can’t celebrate him when he does something great??? Seems off and overly pc.
Same thing happened when a “reporter” on HaloHangout wrote a slam piece on Maddon saying he is unfit to manage anywhere because he stayed neutral during an ongoing DV investigation of one of his players.
You know you’re a redneck when your name is “southbeachbully” and you spout “overly pc.” To such a person, there is no acceptable level of pc. None.
6yrs-$210M for Cole. SD, NYY, LAA are likely the favorites but wouldn’t rule out LAD either.
It’s going to be a long winter.