The Blue Jays have been connected to several free agent starting pitchers this offseason, with club GM Ross Atkins voicing a desire to “add significantly” to a staff that, as presently constructed, is relatively short on proven arms. With free agent starters beginning to trickle off the board, Toronto’s course from here forward may become increasingly tricky to plot, as noted in an exploratory piece from Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star (link). Kyle Gibson, a starter in whom Toronto was said to have an interest, has signed a multi-year deal with the Rangers, while Jake Odorizzi, another reported target, opted to accept his qualifying offer from Minnesota. In Chisholm’s view, many of the remaining available options offer an unpalatable mix of red flags. Zack Wheeler is a “massive risk” in the writer’s view, while arms like Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, and Hyun-Jin Ryu are unlikely due to either age or their “expected desires to play for a contender”. While Chisholm is justified in being doubtful of a truly earth-shattering free agent acquisition, given the club’s history in the open market, an observer might note that Atkins could be able to sell a veteran pitcher on a near-term return to contention in Toronto, given the club’s ample payroll space and trove of quality young players. After all, last offseason saw Manny Machado settle in with San Diego based partly on the club’s general organizational direction, and Jays youngsters like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nate Pearson could all make for appealing future teammates to any of the market’s higher-end starters.
More news from the north country…
- But what if Toronto’s front office does decide to eschew higher-priced free agent starters in favor of a few Black Friday bargains? That’s the question asked by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, who identifies three potential open-market additions who, for various reasons, may be willing to accept relatively marked-down deals. While Jordan Lyles and Wade Miley would each make for reasonable innings-eating inclusions into Toronto’s pitching corps, Nicholson-Smith tops his list of potential bargains with big righty Michael Pineda. By my own addition, it seems reasonable to conclude that Pineda could start garnering interest from clubs seeking value on their holiday shopping lists. Though some teams will surely be wary of a player who is slated to miss the first six weeks of 2020 due to a PED suspension, that pockmark on Pineda’s track record could theoretically help create a value proposition for an interested club; moreover, though Pineda’s bottom-line results in the bigs have largely been ho-hum–with a career 4.04 ERA in 800-plus innings with the Mariners, Yankees, and Twins–underlying metrics include a 3.67 career FIP and a career 4.47 K/BB ratio. With a four-seamer that dropped down to 92.5 mean mph in 2019, Pineda won’t be most imposing addition to a team’s front end, but he’s a known commodity who would certainly slot in well to a rotation like Toronto’s.
- The Jays have been said to have interest in former NPB player and MLB hopeful Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, leading Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic to forecast his potential fit into the Toronto position player mix. Atkins recently cited Tsutsugo’s versatility as one of his key benefits, in reference to the fact that the 28-year-old has played the corner outfield, first, and third in recent seasons with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. However, scouting reports on Tsutsugo’s defense have generally been damning with faint praise. Of Tsutsugo’s 2019 stint at third base, veteran NPB scribe Jim Allen says: “It’s not that he could play it OK, but it didn’t bother his offense at all.” This type of hedging leads McGrath to conclude that Tsutsugo’s ultimate destination in Toronto would likely be first base, with his patient, left-handed bat likely pushing Rowdy Tellez to the margins of the roster. Tsutsugo would likely happily receive calls for Toronto, due to his stated lack of preference for geographical location, but interested teams will only have until Dec. 19 to agree to terms to a deal that will pay a dependent release fee to his parent club in Yokohama.
DarkSide830
so by process of elimination…Cole must be a lock for Toronto.
Aaron Sapoznik
Nah, Blue Jays beat reporter Gregor Chisholm has already written that Zack Wheeler is a “massive risk” which is just a smokescreen for “too expensive”. One can only imagine how Gerrit Cole might be viewed in the eyes of Toronto’s front office and ownership?
Btw: I do get your sarcasm. Just adding a little of my own here.
cookmeister 2
Pretty sure he’s joking dude
Aaron Sapoznik
Pretty sure I acknowledged that, dude.
Mrivers
You did, dude.
MuleorAstroMule
Yeah it’s weird to say Wheeler is a massive risk when any of those guys outside of Cole and Strasburg could easily turn into the Jays version of Alex Cobb.
jorge78
Sarcasm alert!
moody
nobody uses the sarc switch anymore. /sarc
Strike Four
Joey Murray has to be on top 100 lists after last year, right?
clrrogers 2
Not even close. He’s only Toronto’s 28th best prospect according to mlb.com.
Strike Four
Yes, those were last years rankings. Thanks for doing absolutely no homework though.
24TheKid
The lists were updated in August…
its_happening
Still not even close. Maybe in 8 months.
walls17
He had a good season, but what makes him a top-100 prospect in your opinion? Not hating or anything, but what’s your reasoning, I’m just wondering if he’s someone I should keep a closer eye on.
Michael Chaney
I mean, he just made it to AA and he’s a 23 year old who throws upper 80s to lower 90s and doesn’t have an out pitch. His numbers are definitely impressive (and I think he’ll stick as a starter), but overall he doesn’t really have the profile of a top prospect. Guys like that don’t get much prospect love.
I’m an Indians fan, and they have someone really similar in Eli Morgan (who was an 8th rounder the year before Murray was an 8th rounder). He’s also 23 and also hovers between the upper 80s and lower 90s, although he quite possibly has the best changeup in the Indians’ system. His numbers are reasonably similar, but he’s made it as high as AAA and thrived in AA too.
He can’t even sniff the Indians’ top 30 prospects for whatever reason though, and he has a really similar profile. So I think Murray being a top 100 leaguewide prospect is an overreaction.
jbigz12
Yeah that’s a big overreaction. Not a death sentence to his career but he won’t be on top 100 lists. There’s a lot of college guys around the league who have a pop up year where they put themselves on the radar. But 9 starts at AA isn’t going to put him, especially with his profile, anywhere near a top 100 list.
jacobteam
Curt Schilling, Corey Kluber, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, Mariano Rivera—none of these guys ever made the Baseball America Top 100 Prospect List.
moviejay
He won’t make top 100 lists because pitchers with below average velocity are usually always underrated, even if velocity ends up having only a questionable relationship with success at the big league level. The big test will be how he performs in 2020. He’ll start in AA, but he’ll probably go to AAA by June if he’s dominating, and then we’ll see if he can fool those bats, too.
ShieldF123
I think it’s more than fair to say velocity does not equal success and a lack of does not equal failure, but it’s certainly harder to succeed when you pitch 88-92 mph
jonnymac2for1
Let’s agree to not use words like pedestrian and palatable in baseball conversations. Sounds nerdy and is nerdy. You live at home with your mother in a basement.
clrrogers 2
How about people use whatever words they want to and you just cry about it?
gocards2849
Or he is just getting a point across and u are linking for things to get mad about.
gocards2849
*looking
DockEllisDee
Having a hard time keeping up with the big words are you?
Strike Four
you wrote that on a computer you bought with your inheritance, didnt you
Aaron Sapoznik
I like “pedestrian” and “palatable”. Besides if you use a similar word like “average” some of the analytic nerds here might think he is making a reference to BA. God forbid that!
kiddhoff
I find this conversation to be Peterific, yet shallow and pedantic.
jaysfansince1977
He is my son living in his dads basement! You got a problem with that you talk to me not my son smart guy! i paid for his education so he could use those big words you are having trouble with! maybe if you moved back home you might grow up a bit and learn new words!!!! LOL
DarkSide830
this comment is not palatable.
Michael Chaney
I vehemently oppose statements like this
walls17
The Jays really should sign all three of Pineda, Miley, and Lyles, or maybe try to bring back Shoemaker. Nothing great or anything, but solid MLB starters that’ll hold down the fort and should make Toronto a little bit more competitive next season while not breaking the bank
TheBuffaloBillsOfBaseball
Shoemaker is under control of the Blue Jays until the year 2020. He is not a free agent after the season. Any of those 3 options are also solid too though.
walls17
There’s talk of non-tendering him
BBB
So no DH for Tellez if Tsutsugo started at 1B?
walls17
RosterResource has Teoscar Hernandez there now. I’d prefer Tellez personally, although I could see them using the DH spot as a revolving door of guys, they have so many young hitters who are probably on their last chance to make an impact, so they’ll probably try to give as many at bats to guys like that as possible
DarkSide830
it really depends on how you line up the roster, namedly on where Biggio starts. id like to see Urena start at 2B, which would put Tellez at DH by association, but i doubt that’s likely.
flippinbats79
Urena should not be starting for any MLB club. He’s not good
jaysfansince1977
This would be a good addition to the team in a left handed bat 1stbase/DH to be a team mate to fellow country man Akiyama at CF and having Kawasaki come back as the teams bunting/dance coach would be a great addition!
bleacherbum
A deal with Padres makes sense for Quantrill and Naylor. Jays would most likely lose Gurriel in this deal but Quantrill slots in the back end of the Jays rotation with Naylor returning to Canada to essentially replace Smoak.
its_happening
Grichuk and Giles, Jays would have to take on Myers and SD kicks in another prospect along with Quantrill and Naylor. Jays keep Gurriel.
Digdugler
As per usual, every FA linked to the Blue Jays through history* is “ho-hum”
*at least the last 20 years.
Phiilies2020
Blue Jays are a dark horse this year in my opinion. Get two of: Porcello, Pineda, Wacha, Tehran, even Smyly. They could probably convince King Felix or Shelby Miller to sign a minor league deal with a chance to win a rotation spot and be the #5. That young core is impressive. A lot of things would have to break right but if they bring in a couple savvy vets that wanna prove they still belong, who knows?
jbigz12
Yeah I mean I don’t think a couple savvy vets are going to make the Jays a legitimate playoff contender. I think that might make them a 75-80 win team. You can’t win with their current rotation and pen. They definitely don’t have the pitching to compete. They need to go out and get an impact arm this year or next and really wait for the arrival of their good pitching prospects.
It makes sense to add starters for Toronto but if you’re only going to add bargain bin types they aren’t going to be pushing for anything. That’s not to say if they sign G Cole that they’d necessarily be pushing for the playoffs this year either.
I’d probably wait on the big FA splash til next offseason because being too early on making moves isn’t necessarily a good thing either. You don’t want to have bad deals on the books like San Diego before your window really has even opened.
Wilford Brimley
Bring back Ben Nicholson-Smith! While I generally disapprove of men who have hyphenated names, Tim could save money and cut at least three of the current writers and bring back BNS.
TennVol
Greg Bird would be a nice signing and compete for the 1B job with Tellez. Get Shoemaker and Miley for the rotation. Would be interested in what a Starling Marte trade from the Pirates would cost. Gurriel, Marte and Grichuk would be a solid outfield. Infield of Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio, and Bird/Tellez would be competitive.
OilCanLloyd
I too would like Marte. Trade McGuire and a prospect. I would then non tender Drury and either trade for or wait for Travis Shaw to become non tendered. He can play 3rd too. Jake Lamb is a possible non tender fit too.
coldbeer
Tellez is overrated. Bird is always hurt. Pass.
ForestCobraAL
It’s so strange to observe the completely different discourse surrounding the Blue Jays vs the Angels when these two teams are essentially equal in talent.
jbigz12
The Mike Trout effect. The Jays have more prospects than the Angels that are further off also. The Angels are going to have their best prospect up this year. Though I don’t know if anyone really believes that the Angels are going to go very far when they have to buy themselves 4 starters + a catcher. And still probably need more. But having the best player in baseball will make a team look Much better than it really is
Vandals Took The Handles
This article touches on 3 points that are truisms to me:
1. Yes. Zach Wheeler is a “risk”. Any FO seriously thinking of giving this guy a long-term $100m contract team needs owner intervention. Note that organizations that develop pitchers well have no interest in him. Of all the free agents this year, the hubbub over Mr. Wheeler puts him at the top of the ‘2019-20 free agents most likely to stick their employers with a bad contract for years to come’ list.
2. Pitchers are far harder to develop then position players. Teams that are reliant on paying for established pitchers in free agency or by taking on salary in trade inevitably wind up with unsustainable pitching staffs. In turn that financially bleeds into their ability to improve other areas of their team, which pretty much pulls their team out of any hope for contention.
3. Mark Shapiro run organizations do not understand pitching. It was when the Indians pulled him out of baseball ops that they began to learn the nuances of finding and developing pitchers and implemented processes to do so.
moviejay
Your point #3 is utterly baseless. Shapiro swung the deals that brought Kluber & Carrasco over; he signed Salazar as an amateur FA; and his regime also drafted or traded for Tomlin, Clevinger, Bauer. The entire pitching core responsible for Cleveland’s great run this decade is due to Shapiro.
Vandals Took The Handles
You did not comprehend what I wrote…….
All those players were developed AFTER Shapiro had been removed from running baseball ops and transferred to the business side.
In fact, they began to revamp their pitching strategies when Bauer was acquired, including Francona and Antonetti going down to Texas to meet with Bauer at the pitching ranch he trained at in the wintertime. Additionally, during that off-season it was Antonetti and Francona that interviewed and hired Mickey Callaway as pitching coach.
It was after those moves were made when the Indians began to develop pitchers successfully – including all the ones you’re citing.
its_happening
Vandals was spot-on. Tomlin was also garbage and hurt your point.
Currently the Jays have been in on Kyle Gibson. A guy that can easily be replaced by an internal player. Developing Gibson types are much easier than developing Scherzer and Cole type aces.
That great “run” by Shapiro resulted in 2 playoff appearances in a 14 year span. Nothing worth bragging about.
firegibby
Enough trash sign some good starters instead of bounceback dumpster dives.
Dan LeBlanc
If the Jays are shopping in the Pacific Rim they shouldn’t be as interested in Tsatsugo and much more interested in Kwang-Hyun Kim. Kim has posted excellent numbers for the last decade in the offence-inflated KBO. The Jays are desperate for starting pitching and Kim could be a great out of the box signing.
its_happening
Can’t sign marquee talent when you do not make an attempt to sign Marquee talent. Jays fans want an effort from the front office and they are getting it in the form of B and C level free agents. Pocket the money and continue the slow build if that’s the case.
Anderson, Thornton, Kay, Zeuch, Shoemaker, Borucki, Reid-Foley. Let them compete for a starting role. Not exactly 90’s Braves but that will do. Promote Pearson in May. Want to sign a starter? Grab a bounce back type guy like a Porcello or Pineda. Any AAA arm performs (Diaz, Sopko, Hatch, anyone), promote them. Pannone is a reliever, Waguespack can be a long man.
The risk they run is the fact that this offseason has top-heavy free agent pitchers. Next year not so much.
neo
I am surprised nobody took exception to the writer damning Toronto with faint praise by suggesting “Tsutsugo would likely happily receive calls for Toronto, due to his stated lack of preference for geographical location.”
Clearly free agents who don’t care where they go would be happy to summer in Toronto, while those with some geographical sense about them would never go there.