November 18: The posting formally occurred today, meaning the deadline to reach a deal is December 19th, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).
November 15: The Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced Friday that they have posted slugging left fielder/first baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo for Major League teams (link via the Japan Times). He now has 30 days to negotiate with MLB teams willing to pay the BayStars a release fee that is dependent on the size of the contract he signs.
Tsutsugo, who turns 28 on Nov. 26, has been one of Japan’s most prominent sluggers for the past four seasons, hitting a combined .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. His best season came back in 2016, when he launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680. It’s worth noting that Tsutsugo’s 2019 season was his weakest of the past four (.272/.388/.511, 29 home runs) and saw his strikeout rate climb to 25.3 percent.
There’s little doubting Tsutsugo’s raw power, but his ability to handle increased velocity, make consistent contact and contribute on the defensive side of the ball in MLB are less certain. Listed at 6’0″ and 209 pounds, Tsutsugo doesn’t run particularly well, and although he’s spent some time at third base in his career, most scouting reports on him agree that he’s limited to an outfield corner or first base at this point. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently wrote of Tsutsugo that he’s a potential everyday player but one with “no margin for error because of defensive limitations,” noting that has questionable hands could make him a liability at first base. Sports Info Solutions’ Will Hoefer wrote in September that Tsutsugo has a plus throwing arm and “could be hidden in right field with strong positioning.”
The extent to which MLB clubs are sold on Tsutsugo’s defense will determine the interest in him. It’s easy to envision some NL clubs shying away — particularly those who already have a set first baseman locked into place. But Toronto general manager Ross Atkins has already acknowledged some interest in Tsutsugo, and the White Sox stand out as an obvious potential fit with both corner outfield and DH openings. Speculating a bit further, any of the Mariners, Tigers, Royals or Rangers could find a way to work him into a first base/DH/corner outfield rotation. The Marlins, with uncertainty at first base and in the outfield corners, are an on-paper fit in the NL. There’s certainly a case to be made that any rebuilding club could give Tsutsugo a look and hope to land a relatively affordable piece who can help turn things around or emerge as a trade asset.
Under the current posting system, a Major League team interested in Tsutsugo would owe the BayStars 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed to him, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of any dollars spent north of $50MM. That release fee is on top of the guarantee itself. Contract options and performance incentives, once unlocked or triggered, are subject to a supplemental 15 percent release fee. For minor league deals, MLB clubs pay out 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s salary upon being added to the 25-man roster is subject to a supplemental posting fee.
Tsutsugo, who is being represented by Wasserman, has a finite free-agent window due to the 30-day nature of the posting system, so within a few days of the conclusion of next month’s Winter Meetings (from Dec. 8-12), we’ll know if he’s coming to MLB and where he’ll be playing.
Why is it when players come from over there, MLB has to pay a fee and etc? But when a MLB player wants to go over there, it’s like, “oh okay, peace.” Shouldn’t they have to pay MLB teams the same way MLB pays them?
If an MLB player is under club control, his team does receive financial compensation for releasing the player and letting him sign overseas. There’s just no posting system in that instance, as the interested NPB/KBO team just negotiates directly with the MLB club.
If the very best players in MLB wanted to go sign overseas for far more lucrative contracts (as it is with NPB and the KBO), such a system would exist — but that’s not the case obviously.
Give it a minute of actual thought… the answer is quite simple
Steve explained it – the NPB/KBO teams DO pay the MLB team if the player they want is still under the team control, but instead of posting system, it is a direct negotiation.
Also you need to consider this – when a NPB/KBO player is posted, usually that means the player has shown to be among one of he best players in their leagues, meaning there will be some premiums acquiring the player.
But usually when a player crosses the sea to play for NPB/KBO, the player is usually either a borderline MLB/AAA level or hasn’t shown enough recent MLB level production, meaning there won’t be much high demand for the player at MLB level.
I’m also under the impression that MLB has far more money than the NPB and KBO.
Teams have folded in those leagues. I doubt a team has ever folded in MLB in a very long time.
Does relocation count as folding? Because the last team that relocated was the expos who became the nationals. The next team to fold will be the Rays or A’s. With their likely move to Las Vegas. they need a stadium first. But if a team like the A’s Rays or even the Marlins came to Las Vegas they have Allegiant Stadium while they build a new one
Rainiers became the Brewers. That was a shady deal. Bud Selig was the matter mind of that.
Brewers should have stayed in the AL as well.
That was the Seattle Pilots..
It was the Seattle Pilots….Rainiers are minor league team for Mariners.
Another shady Selig deal to conveniently get his team into the NL. Should have went back instead of the ‘Stros, but that was a contingent of the Astros sale. Yet another shady Selig deal.
Because usually only top tier NPB players come over here and most players that go from the MLB to NPB or KBO are struggling and trying to resurrect their careers. Otherwise they’d be either without a job or playing for an independent league team in the US. NPB wouldn’t pay a premium for mediocre players to come over there and play. MLB teams will pay a premium for premium players to come over here and play.
Probably because when US players go over there it is because they can’t find work here. When their players come over here, they’ve had a lot of success and teams here want them.
He has to be a pretty darn good hitter to warrant leftfield or firstbase.
Wonder if there are any teams willing to give him a shot?
Giants maybe if it’s cheap. They aren’t exactly set in stone in the corners and Belt didn’t have a great season last year either. Think it comes down to the commitment needed
I think the Marlins may give him a shot. They have $$$ to spend and holes to fill. I think the Ichiro experiment went well enough in South Florida to take a stab at this guy. Also they did apparently have interest in Abreu as well.
great insight. I agree Miami should be all over these guys from Japan and Korea, great way to acquire talent during rebuild & for postseason contenders as well
Similar argument to be made for the orioles.
Really,any non-contender should/would be kicking the tires on such players, it doesn’t cost intl bonus money or a draft pick, and, you’ve really only got 3 outcomes:
1) bust
2) becomes bench or everyday player the club keeps/uses
3) shows the talent plays at mlb level and can be flipped for pieces/prospects to speed the rebuild.
If you’ve got the money, and the price is reasonable, give it a sho
Tigers could give him a shot and hide him in left. I’d watch just to hear the announcers try to say his name everyday!
Signing him would make sense for them considering that their leading home run hitter had just 15 this year.
Brewers need help at 1stBase
I doubt he’d be cheaper than Thames, so it wouldn’t make sense.
Thames might get 9.5mil to 13mil for 2 years.
Seems like a Japanese Byung-Ho Park
this guy can smack dingers for sure, but his power is nowhere near that of Park.
White Sox should make a run after him. They need a LH bat and someone who can get on base without having to hit for average. Worst case, he could be a platoon batter at DH who spells Abreu at first.
He strikes out too much and like article says there is a question of can he handle increased velocity of MLB pitching?
What is WAR, DRS, and other sabermetrics in Japanese? Is this guy any good?
1.02 the essence of baseball is what you’re looking for, you’ll have to make a free account but it’s available. He’s a good enough hitter (115-125 wrc+ projections based on his NPB numbers), although he’s not a very good outfielder.
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Exactly, so he’d be perfect for Miami.
He sounds like a candidate for a lower end team to take a modest chance, maybe 3 years, $5-$7 mill. a year. If he works, they could trade him for significant prospects or hold him for their rebuilding. If he doesn’t work, the cost won’t break the team.
I’d be surprised if any MLB team signs him. Akiyama has a chance since there’s a lack of CFers on the market.
i think both get signed if they are good with $3 million a year. one forgets how much less players make in Japan, and the potential value you can generate in hopes of earning a second MLB contract after your first. a guy like Tsutsugo could particularly benefit here due to being a bit younger.
I disagree I’d be really surprised if he doesn’t get a shot… most likely on a non-condending team in need of some pop but never-the-less it’d be really surprising to see no one take a shot on a guy who’s shown as much power as he has in Japan. Sure the questions are there as to whether he’ll be able to catch up to the MLB fastballs — but that’s always the case with foreign players. And this guy has certainly proven all he can in Japan — if he does wind up making the adjustment and handling ML pitching – he has the potential to be a legitimate impact power bat. Something plenty of teams would benefit from given that he probably won’t command a large salary he’ll definitely get a shot somewhere in the Majors next year – just as I said – most likely on a non-contending team with the hopes that he wither (1) provides them solid offensive value to anchor their lineup or (2) proves he’s a viable offensive threat in the majors and can be flipped for a couple of prospects at the deadline or next year
I can see several teams make an offer to play in 2020 and beyond. On the surface, it looks as if he would slot right in for several teams. How many teams are willing to spend those millions of dollars, is the question of the day.
Maybe he’ll be like Shohei and take the league minimum
The Cardinals, we need a left fielder.
Sounds like a Kyle Schwarber type (which is fine) but much better for AL play
I look for him to land in Milwaukee on a very cheap deal .