Thursday was the deadline for the 10 players who received the $17.8MM qualifying offer early this offseason to decide whether to take it. Seven players ended up rejecting, two accepted it (Jake Odorizzi and Jose Abreu) and one (Will Smith, now with the Braves) signed a contract with another team. The players who turned it down – Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner and Marcell Ozuna – are now in something of a disadvantageous position. With a QO hanging over their heads, it would require another team to surrender both a significant amount of money and draft compensation to sign them.
We’ve seen the QO hamper free agents in the past, but will it occur again this winter? First off, if it does, it’s at least not going to victimize Cole, Rendon or Strasburg. No matter what, they’re primed to lead this class of free agents in guarantees. Cole and Rendon should reel in $200MM-plus in guarantees, while Strasburg could approach that number. On the other hand, Wheeler, Donaldson, Bumgarner and Ozuna may face some degree of adversity thanks to the QO. Here’s a rundown on each…
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
MLBTR projection: Five years, $100MM
- Aside from the QO, is there anything that would scare clubs away from Wheeler? Perhaps his injury history. Wheeler’s a former Tommy John surgery patient who missed all of 2015-16 and a large portion of ’17, though he has come back strong since. He combined for 377 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP ball from 2018-19, during which he was one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters.
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Age: 34 in December
MLBTR projection: Three years, $75MM
- Age could be a problem for Donaldson, easily the oldest player left on this offseason’s qualifying offer market. He’s also not far from a couple injury-shortened seasons (2017-18) with the Blue Jays and Indians. To his credit, though, Donaldson was outstanding during a return to health in 2019. In his first and possibly lone season with the Braves, he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs over 659 plate appearances. He’s now the second-best free-agent third baseman in a group that also includes Rendon and Mike Moustakas.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
MLBTR projection: Four years, $72MM
- Bumgarner, known for his postseason exploits and his long run atop the Giants’ rotation, put injury-limited 2017-18 seasons behind him this year to fire 207 2/3 innings with 8.8 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9. Those are front-of-the-rotation numbers, though the 3.90 ERA/FIP and 4.31 xFIP Bumgarner put up indicate he’s more of a No. 3-type starter nowadays. There’s nothing wrong with that, and judging by the early interest in Bumgarner in free agency, it appears he’ll be fine.
Marcell Ozuna, OF
Age: 29
MLBTR projection: Three years, $45MM
- Ozuna’s the youngest player here, but he also looks like the least desirable. Although he typically offered above-average production in each season since he debuted in 2013, only once – in 2017 – has Ozuna recorded star-caliber numbers. He’s now coming off a year in which he slashed .243/.330/.474 (good for a decent but unspectacular 110 wRC+) with 29 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 2.6 fWAR across 549 trips to the plate. Does that type of output merit a large contract and draft compensation? We’ll see. It shouldn’t help Ozuna’s cause that there’s a similarly valuable free-agent corner outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos, who’s not saddled with a QO.
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I suppose it’s a money thing for MadBum. He has rings so I don’t see any other reason. Maybe he doesn’t like living in SF? Could someone enlighten me? Maybe he wants to be in a contending team? No Sarc here just curious.
I think it is three fold:
1.) He wants immediate best chance world championship ability.
2.) He wants as much money he can get while enhancing his ability to win a championship at the same time.
3.) The Giants don’t really want him. They are about to start a rebuild to shed bad contracts which is the reason they hired Zaidi. Paying MadBum would be counterproductive to the rebuild. Both the Giants and MadBum know this. MadBum doesn’t want to spend the rest of his career being a fan draw for a team he doesn’t think can win it all anytime soon.
I think it’s mostly number 3. He makes no sense for that franchise where they are currently. They’re going to be rebuilding, probably for the length of his next contract so if he resigned he wouldn’t be on a team that’s competitive and they would be wasting money when they should be going after cheaper options to retool.
They really should have traded him and Smith for prospects last deadline but the draft pick when he signs elsewhere will help some.
Zaidi and MadBum have already had talks about him staying in SF.
If Bumgarner wants to leave, he’ll find plenty of opportunity elsewhere, but the Giants have plenty of reasons to keep him: they can afford him, he fits the current team’s need of pitching, they love to keep accomplished players around, and his presence will have minimal impact on their soft rebuild/retooling.
He won’t stay with the Giants. I don’t know him (obviously) but I don’t think Madbum is all about $. I also think he is loyal. I think the Giants would make him a decent offer to stay (decent, not whopping- that’s a technical term). I don’t think he’d stay under this regime and I don’t think he’d play for Kapler. I wish him nothing but the best.
QO is a 1 year contract. I’m sure he would prefer a longterm contract, most players do. Besides, he has expressed a preference for staying SF.
I think Ozuna should have taken the qualifying offer this year, put up solid numbers then hit the open market without the qualifying offer attached. He would have made $17 mil this year then he could get the contract he feels he deserves next year. Seems like it would make sense.
On the other hand.. if he gets injured in 2020 or plays like garbage it will look smart in hind sight. You never know.
A bird in the hand is worth way more than 2 in the bush.
One bad year could cost the guy millions..where as now, he still stands to make millions.
I could see him signing a 5 year/ $80 million contract. Something tells me he doesn’t believe In himself and will regress going forward. Probably won’t put up more than 3 WAR in a season the rest of his career after signing his next contract.
Yeah. Makes sense. Kinda reminds me of Craig Kimbrel last year. Wanted the most guaranteed money going forward regardless of average annual salary. Look how that turned out for the team that signed him. It’s like they don’t have faith in themselves to earn more next year without the QO attached. Why should anyone else have faith in them if they don’t.
As an Angel fan I’d rather have Madbum and Wheeler and those projective salaries with room for a catcher than Cole at 7/245.
I agree. You can probably get Bumgarner and Wheeler per year for slightly over what Cole will cost. Angels need a lot more than just Cole.
True, because even though he is one of the best pitchers in the game, the Angels would still have a suspect rotation.
I genuinely haven’t thought of that. Kind of embarrassing. I’ve been so locked on Cole. How great would Wheeler, Bumgardner and Ryu look with Ohtani and Canning? I think Heaney should be trade bait with Marsh for a young, ready to graduate, catcher.
Most certainly Ozuna! He’s really not good, just had a bad year, and kinda a wild card personality that you’re not 100% sure what you’re gonna get. Having to beat that costly QO to begin with and then a draft pick is also attach to it is brutal for him. I’d absolutely freak if my team got him. His best fit is back with the marlins in my opinion. And they truly can’t afford to give up picks right now
What makes him a “wild card personality?”
It was a toss up of Ozuna and Whgeler for me. You gotta think that Wheelers injury history would cost him as well.
What about Will Smith? I don’t see any takers on him with a QO attached.
The Braves already signed Will Smith on a 3 year $40 million deal WITH the QO attached. I think it is because of the rule changes that start next season requiring every pitchers to face at least 3 batters. Lefty relievers that can do that are rare but Will Smith is definitely one of them.
@Giants fans I told you Bumgarner would make it to FA.
Now go stand in that corner and think about what you did…
Ozuna and Donaldson will both be hurt .
Ozuna and Wheeler, reasons for both of those guys is because even the Ozuna will keep being a high home run and rbi guy, he is wildly inconsistent and will never come close to his 2017 production and Wheeler is inconsistent and still could get hurt anytime despite staying healthy the last two seasons.
Donaldson’s age (34) might hurt him because would his new team really want to give up a pick for someone who might last 3 more years? But 3B is a prized position so he might get lucky
He seems to be getting a lot of interest as the next step down from Rendon in cost, both in terms of length of contract and AAV.
The QO offer pick should just be viewed as the ability to trade a pick for an RFA in other sports. It’s the bonus pool money that probably hurts teams most. Especially with the talent that keeps coming from around the world
But imagine if you could trade picks in MLB, assume Donaldson was under contract for 3 years and 75 mil after he signed 4/100 last year with Atl and now all they want is your 2nd rounder and a millon of your bonus pool for salary relief
Wouldn’t that seem cheap?
I think age hurts Donaldson, but it’s not as big a concern if he goes to an American League team.
I’m looking at you Los Angeles Angels . . .
I believe Wheeler is an overhype hence why he Was not traded in Decenber
Ozuna should have accepted, because 1) he was a victim of some bad luck on balls in play, especially his power numbers, and 2) his power numbers were watered down by all the other players putting up crazy numbers because of the juiced ball. I think his power will still be evident next year when they “fix” the ball, so his numbers will look better relative to the league.
Ozuna can’t catch or throw at the league average. All teams can run on Ozuna’s arms and he is poor catch balls that hit his glove and are rated 90 catch rating.
good hitter with not so great defense
So day after the draft Ozuna signs?