The White Sox continued their active offseason by inking Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal with a vesting option for a fourth. Let’s check in on some reactions to Chicago’s most recent splash, as well as a look at broader market trends.
- The Sox are still a bit shy of being legitimate contenders, feels ESPN’s David Schoenfield. Between some anticipated regression from Tim Anderson, whose .399 BABIP is not sustainable, and uncertainty among Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal and Nomar Mazara, Chicago’s lineup doesn’t match up with the league’s elite, even if it is rife with upside. In Schoenfield’s estimation, that’s not quite enough to support a rotation that still looks a bit underwhelming. Keuchel and Gio González are reliable but no longer top-of-the-rotation starters, and there’s little in the way of depth beyond those two and ace Lucas Giolito. Skepticism aside, Schoenfield notes there’s little question this will be the most exciting White Sox team in recent memory.
- The Athletic’s James Fegan feels similarly, pointing out that the Sox may not contend until the soon to be 32-year-old Keuchel is firmly on the downside of his career. Nevertheless, Fegan praises the signing as a “declarative moment” for the franchise. Between Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal, the organization is showing “seriousness and urgency about breaking an embarrassing eleven-year playoff drought,” Fegan argues. Keuchel should be a positive in the clubhouse, he feels, and Chicago no doubt needed to add capable arms to a rotation that was the league’s sixth-worst run prevention unit in 2019.
- While the 72-win White Sox have been busy this offseason, playoff teams have actually been the most active in free agency thus far, found Ben Clemens of Fangraphs in a piece which predated the Keuchel signing. 58.6% of free agents worth at least 2 fWAR last season have inked with teams who made the postseason in 2019. (Keuchel’s signing wouldn’t change that figure, as he was worth just 0.8 wins in his abbreviated time with the Braves). If that trend were to hold, it would make for the highest rate of quality free agents flocking to playoff teams in the past twenty years. Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Anthony Rendon are among the notable exceptions. Nevertheless, as Clemens explores more fully, teams looking to defend their postseason berths, not those hoping to unseat recent powerhouses, have been the first to strike in free agency.
Dallas is older but still held his own last season.
Atlanta really needs some starting pitching depth. They wanted no part of resigning Keuchel. That should tell you, all you need to know about paying him $18/M a year. He will get destroyed in the small, band box they play in.
Atlanta has plenty of depth. They have like five arms vying for one spot. They need the money for a cleanup bat at third base or LF, not their fifth starter.
and yet, they’re still looking at 5th starters on the market.
Let’s see how they do know without Donaldson against the tougher pitching teams in the East
I definitely don’t agree with all people that keep saying Teheran is better than Keuchel. However, this contract is a ridiculous mistake by the ChiSox. His FIP last season was 4.77 and that was in a bigger ballpark with a much better defense behind him when he had the luxury of facing a pitcher instead of the DH. Even then, Keuchel was a #4 starter AT BEST. All of those situations are now worse for him in Chicago. His ERA and FIP will all climb and the fact that he is going to make over $18 mill a year for the next three years is going to be laughable to the rest of the league. I loved the Grandal signing for the White Sox and I don’t mind the addition of Keuchel either, but to give him a contract like this is just plain dumb. I understand that Chicago has a below average rotation and that they are probably expecting to throw DK in as their #2 starter out of pure necessity but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to pay him like he’s a #2 starter. He’s a #4 caliber starting pitcher no matter where he gets plugged into the rotation. He eats a lot of innings but plenty of 4 & 5 starters that eat innings and they don’t get paid over $18 mill a year to do it. The best case scenario for Keuchel in a White Sox uniform is that he hovers around .500. Within a couple year he could easily become a pitcher that is a lock to finish with a losing record. Keuchel got 0.8 WAR last year over 2/3 of a season. If you extrapolate that out to a full season it becomes about 1.2 WAR. The going rate for WAR is somewhere in the range of $7-9 million per win above replacement. Why are the White Sox willing to pay Keuchel over $15.4 million per win above replacement for Keuchel of all people? They paid him like Grandal when Grandal had over 5 wins above replacement. How is 1 WAR worth about the same as 5 WAR? $15.4 million per WAR? That is flat out crazy. WAR may not be a good measurement for relief pitchers but it is pretty important with starting pitchers. It never ceases to amaze me what Scott Boras is able to get for his clients. The rate of team money spent vs. potential production provided by the player in this deal is pretty obscene. This contract heavily favors Keuchel and he has to be jumping for joy when he got this. I don’t know Boras convinced them that Keuchel was gonna be worth the same amount as Grandal for at least the next 3 years but I can only assume he hypnotized them because no rational human being would ever believe that. It’s one thing to overpay for a young productive superstar. It’s totally different to overpay for an older guy with almost no upside who isn’t even very good anymore. This contracts was not smart.
They shouldn’t be looking for another number 4 or 5 because there’s enough of them in the rotation already tbh, they need to be looking for someone to push fried back to 3, Hamels to 4, and folty to 5.
Newk can be there for injury insurance but starting the season with him in the rotation is going backwards yet again. He’s not a long term answer for THIS rotation, he already had his chance.
Why does no one talk about Camargo or Riley? They need at bats & are a much cheaper option than an injury history Donaldson. People forget Riley had 18 home runs in his abbreviated season. That dude deserves to be given a substantial chance to prove himself at the major league level.
In all fairness, camargo did prove himself in 2018 but was thrown to the wood shed in favor of donaldson the offseason after. His inability to sub in for weeks at a time or be a consistent pinch hitter has drowned out what his trade value was after the 2018 season now.
Riley lit the landscape on fire when he first came up, then his video and lack of offspeed recognition and love of letter high heat got exposed and he turned into another Braves version of Dan uggla. Throw in a knee injury and a lot of work to do in the cage and you have a rookie trying to reinvent himself at the plate while the club his contending and every game matters.
The end.
Yeah, Riley’s K percentage was really high. Too high for MLB success, at least last year.
According to The Athletic, Atlanta never loved Keuchel to begin with (hence why they didn’t sign him last offseason). However, as the team had the resources and Folty, Gausman, and Newcomb had lost rotation spots, they really had no choice but to shore up the rotation with DK while signaling to the clubhouse they were serious at contention.
By all accounts, it was an effective and appreciative half-season partnership by both sides. There was just always an understanding that’s all it would be.
I can understand why they didn’t love him. He wasn’t that great at all, especially in the final 5 weeks of the season.
HORRIBLE take. ATL does not need depth, that’s the one thing they have plenty of. You’re completely clueless.
I think going into it both sides knew it wouldn’t be for more than half a season. Braves got a decent starter for the stretch and Dallas got his money, doubt either has anything bad to say about the other.
All it tells you is most of the quality free agents starters are gone along with many others and they are still CHEAP and could care less about winning it all. Call them Dodgers East
@crazarry who? The Braves?
Keuchel is a division 2 #2 or #3. My fears from Houston box scores were realized watching g him in the stretch. He is good to great against bad to middling teams, and can’t hold his weight against good ones.
He’s the definition of a #4 or #5. Julio Teheran was better.
Keuchel is not the difference-maker ATL needed, proof of that in his mediocre playoff starts. Why would they reunite for multiple years when ATL needs a TOR SP? If Keuchel gets that 4th year, that would almost equal ATL’s highest-ever FA contract (BJ Upton: $75.25M)…and for Keuchel…? He had no chance of re-signing when ATL gave Hamels his 1-year deal. Cheap? Sure, but I think there’s a few other contracts out there that’s a better example than giving a 3-4 year deal to a SP that just came off a 4.72 FiP (his worst season since his rookie year).
Hamels is going to lead them to the promise land! Ya right LMAO
Yea, I don’t think the fact that atlanta not going after him and his skill set correlate here. Just because he might be too expensive for Atlanta’s taste doesn’t make him a bad pitcher who couldn’t hold his own. He’s a good pickup for the Sox. And the “small box” you mention shouldn’t be much of an issue considering he’s a ground ball pitcher. He’ll be fine
Way too many years for this guy. He’s a solid 3 now in most rotations. In a few years the Sox will be begging for someone to take this guy.
A few is three or four. That is the length of his contract. So, I guess in your opinion, this was a good signing, Coach.
Maybe in your world “a few” is 3 or 4. In the REAL WORLD a few is 2!
a couple is two. a few is 3 or 4
There is no world but yours where a few means two.
Wow, and a thumbs up even..
I guess it’s not a married couple anymore, it’s a married few?
Totally… In a few years when he’s a FA. You act like he signed a 9 year $324mil deal…
Which will probably be the case with all the pitchers That signed for more than 2 years this off season. So your choices are pay the market price or don’t sign a picther. I actually think Keuchel Might age better than most because he doesn’t rely as much on velocity.
To coach: Keuchel is not a ‘solid no 3 now”. Certainly not on a team that wants to call itself a contender.
Well he started game one for a team that won its division last year. He is not An Ace by any means but you can definitely contend with the guy like hin in the middle of your rotation. White sox have a lot of young pitchers in their rotation so he will be good to eat up innings.
He started game 1 because Snitker is an idiot.
AA made that call too, not just Snitker. AA has more say than people realize.
He would have started sometime in the series regardless. That’s my point he can certainly be a Rotation member on a contending team.
They were lucky that it wasn’t his fault that they lost both of his starts and that Carlos Martinez imploded or Soroka would have lost his start because he got outpitched by freaking Adam Wainwright.
Disregard
Some people have to find something negative about this signing. I wonder why. The Sox are far from broke doing this deal, and it’s a short contract. Moving on.
I disagree with saying Anderson’s BABIP is not sustainable, we haven’t even started with the next season!
Since 2000, only four other qualifiers (out of nearly 3,000) have matched a .399 BABIP in a season. One was Moncada last season, and the BABIP’s of the other three regressed heavily the following season. Given his speed and ability to use the whole field, Anderson’s a good bet to hit for a high BABIP, but sustaining one near .400 for multiple seasons is almost impossible.
I think the point is accurate, BUT, players with his speed can outperform expected BABIP because he will leg out a few grounders that most couldn’t dream of turning into hits. More speed on the bases (Madrigal, Roberts) should also result in more holes and a few extra hits for TA7 too.
This seems like the classic we dont want to wait anymore so let’s go spend big and sign guys before we’re actually read to contend. Seems to me that most of the guys they just wasted money on wont be that good when they are ready to contend.
I get that this is the common opinion but you have to look at their division.
Detroit and KC are complete toilet. They are automatically finishing at least third.
Minnesota, I just have no idea how they were any good- are they really in some sustainable competitive window? It’s hard to think that when you look at their roster and farm system.
Cleveland, let’s see if they take more than a Kluber step back.
The Sox have all the young talent in the division. I don’t think it’s crazy to picture scenarios where they take the Central this year.
Top AL Central Prospects Featured In MLB Pipeline Top 100 Currently (by team):
Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert (3), Michael Kopech (17), Andrew Vaughan (21), Nick Madrigal (40)
Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize (7), Matt Manning (27), Riley Greene (46), Tarik Skubal (74)
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. (8), Brady Singer (52), Daniel Lynch (69)
Minnesota Twins: Royce Lewis (9), Alex Kiriloff (15), Brusdar Graterol (53), Jordan Balazovic (76), Trevor Larnach (77)
Cleveland Indians: Nolan Jones (37), Triston McKenzie (79), Tyler Freeman (97)
To say that the White Sox have all the top prospects in the division is a fallacy. To say that the Twins have a poor system is a fallacy.
He said ‘young talent’, not necessarily prospects. Moncada, Giolito, Cease, and Jiminez all former top 20 prospects under 25 years old. The white sox have graduated multiple top 20 prospects the last 2 years and still have the best farm system in the division.
They do have the best farm, but they don’t have all the young talent.
Other youthful players in the division 26 and under that are impactful and no longer considered prospects:
Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez, Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Nomar Mazara, Dylan Cease
Cleveland Indians: Logan Allen, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Shane Bieber, Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado, Franmil Reyes
Kansas City Royals: Brad Keller, Adalberto Mondesi
Minnesota Twins: Jose Berrios, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler
Detroit Tigers: Joe Jimenez
Basically, this division is a three team race until 2022.
White Sox have far more youth on current roster as well in prospect form than any other team in the al central. Twins, tigers, then Cleveland, then kc
So you should try to develop your young talent by allowing them to get their brains kicked in every night and not field a competitive squad in the meantime? I’m sorry but I disagree strongly with your philosophy.
I’m surprised that they are not considering Cease as a legitimate starter. I saw him at spring training and he passed the eye test.
They are. Idiots on the internet are the only ones that aren’t.
Disagree, this team looks like they are ready to contend in the midwest, they have been trying to upgrade their team for the last 2 years. Now they are ready in my book.
Hilarious
You mean like when the cubs signed Jon Lester? I can’t quite remember how did that 1 turn out?
The white Sox good young players are either already there were will be there very shortly this year. The time is now to start adding veteran talent. Otherwise you’re wasting years of control of guys like Moncada and Giolito.
This is signing Lester after the Cubs won the ws. He was still a Frontline starter his first two years with the Cubs. They should have just got wheeler, at least there’s likely a couple 4 war seasons with him. Keuchel will probably vest his 4th year and only be worth 9 war or so over his deal best case.
“The guys they signed …..won’t be that good when they’re ready to content”.
These guys except for Grandal, are not any good NOW.
The Indians and Twins are both worse today than they were in 2019, with the Royals and Tigers in rebuild mode. The White Sox have addressed every major need, RF production was second worst in baseball (-1.3 fWAR), DH, the worst in the AL (-3.5 fWAR) and Detwiler, Banuelos, Covey and Ervin Santana combined for 32 starts and -1.2 fWAR with FIP’s between 6.19 and 9.66. Grandal, Mazara, Keuchel and Gio represent a 12 to 15 win improvement. Rodon should be back around the ASB. Kopech, one ot the elite pitching prospects in baseball, recovering from TJ surgery, was in an game a couple of months ago touching 100 more than once. Robert and Madrigal, two of the best prospects at their positions will be making their MLB debut at some point in 2020. Then there is the continued upside of recent top 100 prospects in Eloy, Cease, Reynaldo Lopez and Zack Collins.. McCAnn, Leury and Engel, players with different strengths are now reserves or the RH side of a platoon. Plus it’s still only Dec 22, there is still room for improvement and payroll flexibility since they didn’t sign any exceptionally large or long deals.
This is very true. Anybody that has followed this team closely knows the thing that has plagued this team for a year is massive holes in the lineup or rotation. That is why they couldn’t win when they had sale and Quintana. You add Kuchel and Gio to Gioloto, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, Rodon, and Dunning and now we shouldn’t have to see guys like Detwiler ever start a game.
Still need to add a DH though in my opinion
What a bad take
I agree with the article need to sign a DH like Edwin Encarnacion. The ‘rotating DH’ Is a really dumb ideal. The big wild card is going to be Kopech. He was the top pitching prospect in baseball before he got hurt. If he is an Ace then I think they’re contenders this year. Rodon and Dane Dunning will both be back this year as well so I think the lack of depth talk is a little overplayed.
I agree with the article need to sign a DH like Edwin Encarnacion. The ‘rotating DH’ Is a really dumb ideal. The big wild card is going to be Kopech. He was the top pitching prospect in baseball before he got hurt. If he is an Ace then I think they’re contenders this year. Rodon and Dane Dunning will both be back this year as well so I think the lack of depth talk is a little overplayed…
“The most exciting White Sox team in recent history” is not exactly he highest bar to clear, lol.
It is ridiculous to think that they will be among the league’s elite. .500 and second place in the gruesome AL West is a realistic goal.
Sox, I think, are in the AL Central .
Team is a contender.
They have more players coming then is talked about. Examples: Burger, Burdi, Lambert, Steiver, Dunning, and Have the eleventh pick in draft. JT Gunn another pitcher. Keuchel and Gio are good bridges
Yes, AL Central. My bad.
You forgot Andrew Vaughn
Hard to take your reply seriously when you don’t even know what divison their in
I mistyped. My apologies – was thinking about the old days.
No need to apologize for a brain fart. We all do it. Sometimes I still think Houston is in the NL. BHB is just a jackass
As an Angels fan I wish they still were….LOL
Angels are sorry. The Sox used to kick your tail.
Well the expectations for Grandal is too high , he has already peaked offensively and his handling of a pitching staff is mediocre at best. But they have a lot of very good young players. Outfield should start climbing as one of the best. Left side of infield should start making all star appearances regularly.
Why would you say his handling of pitching staff is mediocre at best? He is considered an elite pitch framer for one. From everything I heard he is already been working with the pitching staff to get ready for next year
Go Cubs Go
Down the toilet
I wish people would keep over looking the White Sox. Let them be the ones surprise come October.
Do Gio, Dallas and Yasmani have NTC’s?
If they don’t then what’s stopping them from flipping them if the don’t contend? They’ve done it before.
Umm. The contracts they signed. They have signed two players nobody wanted to long term deals last year and overpaid them. Not to mention extending abreu. They needed to do it but those are going to be hard contracts to move.
It’s only December. Judge the entire body of work in March before determining their upcoming season.
Personally I think this team is moving in the right direction. Not sure if they’ll contend for the division but I think it’s very possible as Cleveland and Minnesota haven’t really improved much. What’s funny though is how some people complain that they’re too cheap and need to spend. Then they sign some good players to cover areas of need who actually fit nicely to their plans and the same people still piss and moan.
The attitude of the team next year will be different and should lead to more wins.
Last year the White Sox were not expected to win and now they are. Excitement is contagious and I think they have the makings for a very good team. Too much pressure can have negative consequences but I think these kids along with the leadership Grandal brings will have a great season. Dallas is still a very good pitcher as he never relied on overpowering stuff.
Jerry Reinsdorf proving that, as has been stated by multiple baseball people, he actually does strive to come in second place.
What they’ve done is absolutely no different that 2015.
Should’ve finished developing a core befors signing Keuchel or trading for a RF.
What do you mean, should have finished developing a core? They still are developing. Keuchel, Grandal, Mazara and Gonzalez won’t change that.
How do you “develop” tradable assets? You’re not making much sense. Until the roster is set, it doesn’t make much sense to trade prospects at any level. They have depth at a few positions that might come in handy later, but not before the trade deadline.
What’s also being sold with these signings is hope. That’s something that’s important to a fan base, just like with the Mets being sold, that brings hope to the fan base and excitement that the best is yet to come.
The Sox are improving their team (No one can deny that) and selling hope to their season ticket holders & fans that hey we are doing something, and we want to win.
Sox fans have been sold this before. over and over and over.
They have to spend even on players that won’t contribute by the time the teams is actually ready to win just to make themselves an attractive free agent destination. It worked for the nationals.
Keuchel’s numbers aren’t great, he’s given up tons of hits, with only a few really good seasons. Baumgartner is a better pitcher all around, and Eovaldi is definitely a Red Sox regret.
I see Keuchel being this year’s JA Happ.
Personally I’m glad we didn’t touch Baumgarner. If you look at his splits playing away from his huge home park in SF The last couple years they are not very good.
Keuchel’s splits were worse.
BB rate and hits are up. Velo is down. His career high strand rate saved him last year and Grandal buys him no extra strikes over the pitch framers ATL employs.
The Sox terrible analytics dept. missed all this, of course.
As a Sox fan, I’m excited and think this team will make some noise. They’ve done a really nice job so far. I wouldn’t mind having Puig as DH/platoon with Mazara but the biggest additions could very well be Kopech, Robert and Madrigal. Add a couple of tweaks to the bullpen as well. Should be a good season.
Think he would’ve been a nice fit here. We have a stellar infield defense and still need quality pitching.
I like what they have done up to this point still feel twins are a bit better but they don’t need to be elite in the off season they just need to prove they can be competitive by the time the deadline comes around..then they can look at where they need to improve and use some of the resources they have to become a contender,obviously they won’t be a World Series caliber team this year but winning their division will set them up to go all in the next year
Need tradeable assets to add at the deadline. Sox can’t seem to develop any.
Dogbone is scared.
I watched Keuchel after he joined the Braves last season. I was unimpressed.
They could have just as well brought glavine out of retirement for 17 million less, he couldn’t have pitched any worse when it mattered..
Both Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez will be better than James Shields or Ivan Nova and that’s really all that matters.
Whitesox should have just resigned Nova and added another free agent or two. The contending American League clubs are loaded with right handed power. Keuchel may give up 50 homers
Everyone knows the Twins cheated last year. And ol’ Marwin gets the fall for it, right?
You set the bar at Shields and Nova?
It’s that acceptance of mediocrity and lack of patience that allows the Sox FO to get away with what is just a repeat of 2015.
Tough to get guys to come to the Murder City on their own….Kudos to the ChiSox.
And, “… the South Side of Chicago is the baddest part of town. If you go down there you better just beware ….”