DECEMBER 16: Tampa Bay has announced the signing. Interestingly, it characterizes him as a third baseman and outfielder, which obviously suggests that Tsutsugo will be in the mix at the hot corner.
DECEMBER 13: The Rays are finalizing a two-year contract with Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter). The contract being discussed would guarantee the first baseman/outfielder about $12MM total, per Topkin. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicates that a deal has been agreed upon (Twitter links).
Because he was posted by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and is not a pure free agent, Tsutsugo would require the Rays to pay a posting/release fee to his former team. Under the current iteration of that system, a fee equal to 20 percent of a player’s first $25MM in guarantees is owed to his former team. That’d be $2.4MM on a $12MM contract, meaning a deal of this type for Tsutsugo would cost the Rays a total of about $14.4MM.
Tsutsugo, who turned 28 on Nov. 26, has been one of Japan’s most prominent sluggers for the past four seasons, hitting a combined .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. His best season came back in 2016, when he launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680. It’s worth noting that Tsutsugo’s 2019 season was his weakest of the past four (.272/.388/.511, 29 home runs) and saw his strikeout rate climb to 25.3 percent.
Listed at 6’0″ and 209 pounds, the left-handed-hitting Tsutsugo has played some third base in his career but primarily has been deployed as a left fielder and first baseman. He’ll presumably become an option at first base and DH with Tampa Bay, although the Rays’ fluid rotation of defensive players could afford the slugger some reps in the corners as well, particularly if the team wants to give newly acquired Hunter Renfroe a day off against a tough right-handed opponent. Renfroe hit just .208/.274/.459 against righties in 2019. On the surface, the signing of Tsutsugo appears to be bad news for first base prospect Nate Lowe, who also hits from the left side of the dish but never got a full look in 2019 despite huge numbers in Triple-A and a solid showing in 169 MLB plate appearances.
There’s little doubting Tsutsugo’s power, but his glovework is a much more considerable question. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote a bit more than a month ago that Tsutsugo is a potential everyday player but one with “no margin for error because of defensive limitations” even at first base. Sports Info Solutions’ Will Hoefer wrote in September that Tsutsugo has a plus throwing arm and could be “hidden” in an outfield corner with some proper positioning work. Those in the industry who’ve spoken to MLBTR about Tsutsugo offered similar concerns about his defensive home but praised his power as a legitimate tool.
Tsutsugo will now be added to an ever-changing cast of characters in a Tampa Bay lineup that has added Renfroe but subtracted Tommy Pham (Renfroe trade), Avisail Garcia (free agency) and Jesus Aguilar (waivers) to this point in the offseason. The signing of Tsutsugo could well put an end to any potential for a fit with free-agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, who’d previously been a rumored target. Tsutsugo was also connected to the Tigers, Blue Jays, White Sox and Twins prior to today’s agreement with the Rays.
From a payroll vantage point, the deal should be a manageable one for the perennially low-spending Rays, who shed about $7.7MM in swapping out Pham for Renfroe and placing Aguilar on waivers. An even distribution of Tsutsugo’s $12MM guarantee would put the team’s Opening Day payroll at about $70.7MM (not including the posting fee), which would check in a bit south of last season’s $76MM Opening Day mark. The Rays have never opened the season with a payroll greater than 2014’s $77MM total.
love this deal, lots of upside in this deal. had him for the Indians or Mariners tho
I was hoping Akiyama would sign first. So we could say: “one down, Tsutsugo”. But nice signing by the Rays. Good power and OPS. I’m curious to see how that translates to the MLB.
I chuckled. Well played sir.
Does anyone know the defense positions he has played the last two seasons? I looked on BBR and it doesnt show those years under his fielding section
Doesn’t Phil Collins have a song about him that goes, “Tsu-Tsu-Tsugo?”
Stop it
Yup. Beat you to it..
Nice.
elite post, newjokecity forever
Haha very nice
Happy to see him sign,
How many days left do teams have to sign Shogo? Nice pickup here by the Rays as well.
Shogo is an international free agent he wasn’t posted
Correct but I swear I saw somewhere that there is a date teams have to sign him by or hes going back home to play.
There’s no such timeline on Akiyama. Shun Yamaguchi and Ryosuke Kikuchi have until Jan. 2 to sign.
Must have been late night reading on here again. Thanks for clearing that up.
He K’d a 141 times last year. This doesn’t bode well in MLB. JMHO
No one cares about hitters striking out anymore as long as they’re not making other kinds of outs. Get with the program, grandpa.
The only kind of out that’s worse than a K is a GIDP, so that’s simply not true, StrikeFour. K rate is not as overstated as batting average. Lots of players with high K rates are seeing suppressed salaries unless they’re top tier hitters. Tsusugo has a lot to prove in this regard. 25% K rate in KBO could easily be 35% in MLB. He could be Chris Carter 2.0 if that happens.
Pop ups are way worse than k’s
I agree hitting ground ball outs are actually much worse than striking out, which eats pitch counts, and every pitcher is on pitch counts now, so its more valuable to K than to put it in play.
Did he play in the KBO or in Japan?
Japan
If you don’t make contact, you can’t get a hit, and unless it’s a rare dropped third strike, you can’t reach on an error either.
So strikeout rates are important.
If you can’t make contact, you won’t ever make it out of the minors. These guys are looking for the right pitch to hit. Hitting the wrong pitch leads to grounders and pop ups. Waiting around and perhaps whiffing on one, leads to higher pitch counts for a SP who might be on fire that day.
Strikeout rates are important, in that theyre actually a good thing.
terrible input.
Strike Four — Can you imagine how good Tony Gwynn would have been if he had just struck out half of his ABs? I mean … he would have … uh … I mean … striking out is good. War is peace. Up is down.
Sure thing, bring up a generational talent as an arbiter for all hitters ever. Really great content. You really added to the convo here
Here’s an idea: I am allowed to be correct sometimes? If you need HOFers to make your argument, you don’t have one.
HOFers do make the game go ’round.
strike four- you are the most unhappy poster on here. Or maybe you are full of anger. Or both. You are a very negative person.
you perceive him to be angry, but you really dont know anything. Look in the mirror, before posting your judgements
Moody- I know he is angry. All racists are angry people and he is no exception. He has an agenda and its bad news. Apparently i know more than you. Look in the mirror yourself and don’t tell me what to do.
Ok Gramps. Back to your nap.
Ji man Choi 2.0
Not the worst comp, but Tsusugo has a lot more power and athleticism (re: better defense). Unfortunately he also doesnt seem to possess the same eye (Choi’s walk rate is good) and ability to avoid Ks (Choi’s MLB K rate is lower than Tsusugo’s in Japan.
Why do you say that?
One played in Japan and the other didn’t play in Japan or in the KBO even though he is Korean, not Japanese.
What makes them similar?
does the 2.4 million paid to his previous team count against the salary cap for the next 2 years.
It’s the rays they have one of the lowest payrolls anyways what’s it matter lol
Don’t think the Rays are going to have to worry too much about the “salary cap”.
There is no salary cap.
Hence the quotation marks. Everyone knows there is no salary cap bud lol. The luxury tax does act as a soft cap for many teams however.
Props for using ‘hence’ correctly. It’s a silly pet peeve of mine, but it grinds my gears when people write ‘hence why’.
So he’s a DH. Even if his 4 season slash line average dips a little, he’ll still be an above average hitter. Better than signing aging sluggers like EE and the likes.
Clay Davenport’s model puts his triple slash at .271/.339/.442 in MLB. In my opinion, I think it will play lower in the AL East. Davenport’s comps are JD Davis, Ji-Man Choi, and Brandon Belt.
Why is Choi a comp other than they’re both Asian hitters? Choi has zero athleticism and Tsutsugo has significantly more.
No, Choi is a real comp. Average patience and contact, poor base running and defense, fly-ball hitting, and comparable at the upper range of their expected slugging outcomes. It’s not a social comparison of a comparison for convenience.
Choi never had plus power though, Tsutsugo has been mashing homers for the last 6 years. I don’t see any comp between the two.
Also Choi came up via America, not a foreign system. There isn’t anything linking them other than their race.
Don’t make it a racial thing, the comp is based on the slash line and is similar for all 3 of those listed as comps.
@StrikeFour Did you even read my comment? Try comparing their k%, bb%, defensive metrics, Spd ratings, and then comparing Tsutsugo’s expected slg to Choi’s. They are not just comps, they are very close comps.
@StrikeFour awful analysis as usual
you’re assuming this inbred knows how to read?
aiming high i see.
I agree that Choi’s .303/.403/.492 over approximately 2,100 minor-league plate appearances parallels Tsutsugo’s .284/.382/.528 in NPB closely enough to consider them comparable.
But wouldn’t you say that each has somewhat above average contact tools given their walk totals and OBPs?
He played for a playoff team at the games highest level so I’m guessing that his athleticism is well above zero. He does splits at first base that few 1Bs can do.
@Crewbrew pointless reply, as usual
@beisbolista Choi has never put up homers at any level though, my point is Tsutsuago’s power is real, and Choi’s is all projection.
Also you are seriously comparing a combination of every level of the minors vs the JPL, a real league with actual adult, professional players in it, not just 17 year olds at A ball, which you used when comping Choi’s minor league history?
It’s been argued that Japan is a step above AAA, so your comps make no sense, like why are you saying what Choi did as an 18 year old at A ball is even worth comparing with Japan???
What racists will do to stand up for their racism….its out of this world. Bend over backwards some more, I am still right.
Dude you need to relax. Way out of line calling people racist for a statistical comparison. You can disagree all you like, but there is an adult way to do that
His line will play lower in the AL east? Are you kidding, this guy is gonna hit godzilla shots back to Japan over the short porch in yankee stadium and the 250 ft foul pole in fenway
He’s got to do it against the elite pitching in the AL East. GL to him
Such as? Neither the jays nor o’s have a single starter who could sniff “elite”. He’s playing for the Rays so he automatically doesn’t have to hit vs the best staff and pen in baseball. The Sux have Erod and sale but the rest don’t inspire much. The bankees are the only team with consistently elite pitching
NO MARBLES!!!
Rays really seem to hate Nate Lowe.
I think this dude they just signed can play third and corner outfield so maybe not idk
He can and as a matter of fact, he has more experience in the outfield and third base than first base, with most being in the outfield easily, because he has played 522 games in the outfield, 108 at third and 77 at first. Yes, this includes the 10 games he played in the 2015-16 Dominican Winter League, all of which were in Left Field.
The Rays needed power. I had suggested they should try to trade for Schwarber to fill that exact role; corner OF, 1B and DH. Like the upside here. I’m sure ji-man will appreciate having a fellow countryman in the clubhouse.
Choi is Korean. Tsutsugo is Japanese.
The bigger difference may be that Choi never played in the Asian leagues, being drafted as a 19 year-old and working his way through the minors. Tsutsugo has only played in the Japanese league so his results may be a bit more varied. Having said that – I really like the numbers he has put up and think he will most likely succeed at the very least to the extent of Choi, and will most likely be better.
There’s no comp between the two whatsoever, unless you are a racist who wants to lump two completely different Asian players together just because of where their ancestors came from.
Tsutsugo’s comp seems to be more like Pat Burrell than anything else.
I don’t think they are countrymen. One is South Korean, the other is Japanese.
that’s like saying an american enjoying a fellow countryman from the Dominican republic
First the Rays get rid of Pham, now this. Man, Tampa Bay is trying all they could to make it to the top of the AL East
Getting rid of Pham was very stupid
Guess the Rays can make a quality frugal signing without Bloom. I was wondering…
I had the cubs getting him in replacement of Castellanos for cheap.
My last year of hardball playing American Legion I was a relief pitcher, defensive replacement, pinch runner, and general bench warmer. My strikeout rate was something like 60% yet I never made into the pros! They just didn’t appreciate a good whiff back then.
Story of my life….no respect for a good Whifff.
Another affordable Home Run hitter (FTDH/PH) & the Rays have 2 open 40 man spots so no roster move is needed & the Rays could still bring back Garcia to be at 40. With O’Grady & his options the Rays have a in house depth piece in Durham.
This is a very risky signing for a small market team. Very surprised Rays did this
Unrivaled power from Yandy and Yoshi at the corner. Yankees quaking
Always intrigued by guys making this transition. Hope he raked against the sux and yanks. Love watching the severely out gunned Rays compete with those behemoths.
Missed opportunity for the Jays, especially at that price. He would have to be extremely bad to be worse than Rowdy Tellez.
Don’t worry he will be. Look at his last season line, then factor in MLB pitching – he’ll be hovering around the Mendoza line with less than 15 home runs.
SNORE! MLB Pitchers will eat him alive.
Interesting addition considering they seem to be “in on” RH power. The Choi comp doesn’t look like a bad one, but he won’t be as entertaining to watch; Ji-Man’s a piece of work. And Rays’ fans can’t be entertained anymore watching Pham be angry at the sky for being blue.
THE NEXT ICHIRO
Surprising that they were in on an international player
More surprising is giving up on Lowe.
Rays won 96 games last year, I’m of a mind that their organization knows what it’s doing.
Exactly, they have proven to be one of the elite scouting teams over the years. I just don’t get the signing when you have Lowe ready to go.
I stopped questioning anything the Rays do. They just seem to know their sh&t….
Maybe they have fielded some appealing trade inquiries on Lowe, who knows. They’ve made some nice acquisitions with limited payroll and it’s hard to argue with their roster decisions when they continue to field a competitive team in that division. Prediction: Tsutsugo hits 3 dingers off Cole this season.
Well, maybe Pham-Renfroe….I have a new bald spot from extreme head scratching on that one…