The White Sox made a significant investment in Eloy Jimenez before he ever played a major league game, signing the outfielder to a six-year, $43MM extension last March, and it already looks like a wise decision. The deal Jimenez inked was then a record pact for a prospect with no major league service time, but teammate and fellow outfielder Luis Robert eclipsed that mark when he landed a six-year, $50MM guarantee this past winter.
In signing Jimenez, the White Sox obviated the need to manipulate his service time, clearing the way for the then-consensus top prospect to spend all of the 2019 campaign in the majors. Jimenez didn’t get off to a great start in the first few months of his age-22 season, but his production trended way upward in the second half, leading to an above-average batting line of .267/.315/.513 (116 wRC+) with 31 home runs over 504 plate appearances. And Statcast backed up that production, crediting Jimenez with a .349 expected weighted on-base average (compared to a real wOBA of .343), a hard-hit percentage in the majors’ 92nd percentile and an average exit velocity that ranked in the 87th percentile.
If you want red flags from Jimenez’s rookie season, a couple stand out. For one, even during his second-half surge, he didn’t draw many free passes. His 6 percent walk rate sat well below the league-average mark of 8.5. On the defensive side, Jimenez wasn’t exactly a Gold Glover in left field. Despite finishing in the game’s 70th percentile in Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric, he ended with minus-11 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-11 Outs Above Average and a minus-5.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in the grass. Jimenez’s defensive struggles helped limit him to 1.9 fWAR and 1.4 bWAR during his initial campaign, essentially rendering him an average performer.
The long-suffering White Sox now have designs on being much better than average, considering how active they were in upgrading their roster during the offseason. A sizable leap in overall output from Jimenez in Year 2 of his career could go a long way in helping the team accomplish that in 2020. The question is: How productive do you think he’ll be this season? (Poll links for app users)
not sure if he’ll be that much better if they un-juice the ball
3/3.5 WAR and ops .810 max.
Should have a decent year but could see some regression now that pitchers have tape on him and metrics on how to pitch to him more consistently.
I’ll take the under on WAR and over on OPS
Yeah, he can hit but his war numbers might always be limited due to his defense. .850 ops but a war in the 2’s.
That’d basically make him Castellanos, and I could absolutely see that.
Hopefully, in his prime he turns into what Castellanos was in his short stint with the Cubs.
Yeah priggs I’m with you. I see an .850 OPS and if he maxes out his offense and improves his defense it’ll be a tops of 3 WAR likely less though.
2.5 WAR and 42 homers is more realistic “best case” for him.
Worst case would be 21 homers and -1.0 WAR due to his Castellanos-level shockingly terrible defense.
sophmore slump happens, but hopefully he doesn’t have that. needs to improve on defense but mostly just don’t do anything to hurt himself. if he’s playing he will most likely improve
I don’t think he gets the Sophomore slump. He basically slumped in his first taste of the majors, I see he improves this season.
If he stays healthy, he’ll mash.
He came up last year and immediately saw more breaking balls than literally any other player in baseball. You could see him figuring everything out as the year went on, and he absolutely raked to end the year. I have high hopes, even with the de-juiced baseball.
Eloy’s power is certainly real, the rest of his game needs tons of work. He’s all-power nothing else right now.
That isn’t true. His hit tool is there. His fielding needs a ton of work, but at the plate he has power to all fields, will hit around .280, and is in a much better lineup. All in all the arrow is pointing up.
In the words of Jason Benetti, “THANKS CUBS”
Jesus you have a hard on for the Cubs
Ironic, coming from a Cubs fan reading through the comments section of a White Sox player.
He’s worked hard the entire off season on all facets of his game. I expect a big improvement from him. He’s very determined and surrounded by more talent.
Regresses
Jimenez is truly a special hitter, ballplayer, and person. He will excell this year. Expect 40 HR, .300ba, 370obp with alot more walks and less Ks.
Lmao biggest homer on this website.
I try to tell the truth. I watch the box score every day and a good amount of games. I watch the interviews. I have predicted Louis Robert will be sent to the minors this season since he Ks too much and is not ready for MLB. No Homer here,just trying for the truth. But in a way I am probably a little biased, can’t help it, I’m a fan!
I think you are wrong on both counts here, to some extent. First, there is no chance Robert goes to the minors this year. Are you joking? Have you seen him play? He will be a top-5 defensive CF and steal 30 bases, so regardless of if he strikes out too much he will be top 15 CF. Now – if he hits like it looks like he can, he could legitimately be a top-5 WAR CF this year.
As for Jimenez, there isn’t much evidence that he will walk ‘alot more’ – even in his great 2nd half, where he had an .870 OPS (11 walks) and in Sept when he had a 1.093 OPS (5 walks), he didn’t walk much. I suspect he will hit close to .300 this year and could approach 35 to 40 HRs simply because he hits the ball so hard, but his OPS will be a bit limited by his lack of walks and his WAR will be limited by the fact that I don’t see him getting much better defensively, no matter how hard he works. He is just an awkward outfielder and that can be difficult to change.
Looking at Roberts minor league stats and Jimenez minor league stats will give a good idea of what they will produce at the MLB level. Players don’t change overnight. So I believe my predictions will be true. Good points though about Roberts defense and stolen base ability, that may keep him up if anything.
Sorry, but no minor league stats will ever “give a good idea of what they will produce at the MLB level.” that is fundamentally incorrect at every angle, historically, opponent talent level, etc. Please never think like that, you will be wrong a lot.
That being said Robert is going to be a superstar no matter what numbers he had in the minors, just please dont use those numbers to mean anything in MLB, its way too far a leap and I’d estimate at least 75% of players minors numbers dont reflect what they did in the bigs.
The minor league stats do matter when it comes to strikeouts and walks. Robert had 129 KS to 28 walks in minors last year. Hopefully he has been working on getting his pitch to hit and not chasing balls out of the zone. But his k to w will not improve overnight. I’m guessing if he plays full season to have atleast 170ks to 40 bb. That’s not a good hitter, but a selfish one.
He will need to adjust to breaking balls, like Eloy did last year. I suspect he will be able to do so relatively quickly.
@ Big Hurt, I don’t know that I agree. Eloy did make adjustments, but it was only his last month that he really crushed it. Robert likewise has some swing and miss. It may take him as long to figure it out. He’ll have a better overall rookie season because he’s a better runner and much better fielder, but I’m not counting on him being that good offensively. In OPS+ terms, I’d settle for anything above 105 on the year.
Interesting, I think he will be better than that unless he has some recurring hand/thumb issues like 2018. But I hear what you are saying. Last year (I know it’s the minors) he just adjusted so quickly, he feels like a quick learner. I am expecting more like `120 OPS+, but maybe that’s just my rose colored glasses after watching him continue crushing pitchers this spring training! 🙂
Cub fans are so sensitive
Yes they are. Chalk it up to cognitive dissonance.
Most fans responding to this poll are going to be surprised when Eloy Jimenez approaches or surpasses a .900 OPS in 2020. Despite a slow start in 2019 that was impacted by nagging injuries and an adjustment to MLB pitching, Jimenez still finished the season with an .828 OPS. With improved health, a better idea of pitchers and a far better White Sox lineup in 2020 Jimenez should blow past last season’s OPS number.
As for the WAR results, I also anticipate Jimenez to approach or surpass the 4.0 metric. It will most certainly be fueled by his offensive production but I expect enough defense improvement from him in LF to where his dWAR won’t have such a negative impact on his overall WAR number.
Unless he completely overhauls his body and loses weight and becomes more agile, he’s probably a full time DH playing LF right now. He might handle 1B in the future though, but his OF defense is shockingly bad – he has bad range and a low IQ out there. He’s all-bat. I can’t see him getting to 4 WAR as an OF, his defense will always weigh him down (he can always change that though, he’s young enough).
I see him going for 42 homers and a 2.5 WAR next season. Great player but you’re kidding yourself if you think that defense will improve, he’s got lead in his feet.
I tend to agree with all of this, unless you are implying that he can’t run (lead in his feet). He can run as noted in the article, but like you state he is not agile and hasn’t yet found a way to compensate for that. But he is a very hard worker, so we will see.
He’s in the 70th percentile in sprint speed. He’s not as fast as Robert, Anderson, or Madrigal, but he’s not exactly slow.
HR’s are good, but he needs to get on base more, which I think he will this year.
As for his D, he says he’s worked very hard this off-season to improve it, so I’m keeping an open mind on it. After all, the same thing was said about Yoan’s D going into last season. Yoan went from the worst infielder in MLB in ’18 (-14 OAA) to the 8th best 3B and 31st best IF (+5 OAA) in MLB last season. Not saying Eloy will do the same, but it’s too early to bury a 23 yo OF’s career defensively just because his rookie year was horrible.
Moncada changed positions, from one which requires great lateral movement to one which requires quick reactions and fast, soft hands. Not sure how you can compare that at all. The comparison could be a good one if the Sox choose to move Jimenez to 1b, otherwise he is a bit awkward in the OF. I really hope he gets better this year, he is certainly young enough to work and become close to league average.
@Big Hurt
I fully agree with the points you brought up. I wasn’t trying to compare them, though that’s what ended up happening.
If Eloy ends up league average, that would be great. He doesn’t need to be a Gold Glove. His bat more than makes up for his D. Look at Manny Ramirez, he had a skillet for a glove and looked like he had no clue how to play LF. He might be the only LF to ever cutoff a throw from the CF (Damon with Boston). Yet he had a career that could at least put him in a conversation for HOF (well, at least there would’ve been a better argument for him in the HOF had he not illegally bulked up).
So even if Eloy’s still a liability even after his hard work to improve this off-season, his bat should be good enough to compensate for poor D.
Agreed!
A more interesting question would be: Who do you think ends up being the best overall hitter on the White Sox?
For that one, my money is on Eloy. Madrigal and Vaughn and quite possibly Moncada will hit for higher average. Robert’s BA will be about the same. But Eloy has the kind of power that makes 420-ft home runs look downright easy. As a rookie, he was on a 41-HR pace over a full season, and that’s despite struggling early and coming back from injuries. 50 HRs at some point is very possible, perhaps as soon as next year.
I think I’m as high on Eloy as you are hyrax… Love him and I do think the average will jump this year… like I said higher up, he and Moncada just hit the ball so hard it is inevitable. It’s one of the reasons why I don’t like BABIP by itself, as it doesn’t take into consideration exit velocity. Yes, Moncada’s BABIP was high, but balls that come off the bat at 110 MPH are going to be hits more than a roller to the shortstop! Okay – rant over. 😉
One additional thought – I don’t see Madrigal in the running for best overall hitter, I just don’t see him with enough extra base hits to be in that elite group, but his average could be very high. Vaughn could be the best of the group eventually – I know it’s a crazy comparison but he reminds me of Bagwell in swing and look (Bagwell was a bit taller).
I am still wondering when the Cubs’ organization is going to file the robbery report against the White Sox for that trade!