When the Blue Jays were at their peak in 2015-16, the outfield wasn’t much of an issue. Jose Bautista was holding down right field as one of MLB’s most feared hitters — the brash owner of a .243/.372/.499 slash line that underscored his patience at the plate and his thunderous power. In center field, Kevin Pillar was a staple on highlight reels thanks to a superhuman defensive prowess that led to his gaudy 38 Defensive Runs Saved in that two-year stretch. Pillar’s .272/.309/.388 slash wasn’t particularly impressive, but paired with his world-beating defense, that made him a plenty valuable player on the whole.
Left field was a bit shakier, if only because of persistent injury troubles for the since-retired Michael Saunders. More often than not, Saunders was in the lineup, though the Jays also trotted out Ben Revere, Ezequiel Carrera and Danny Valencia at times. That was the closest they’ve come to any real inconsistency in that time.
That continuity feels like a distant memory now, as the Jays have since turned over their entire outfield mix on multiple occasions and yet still don’t have much certainty. It appears likely that 2019 breakout slugger Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will get the first look in left field whenever play resumes. His 2019 season at the plate was undeniably impressive — .277/.327/.541, 20 homers in 343 PAs — but it also came in a season that was skewed by a juiced ball. Gurriel’s glovework didn’t rate well, either, though he’s a converted infielder so perhaps there’ll be an uptick with more experience.
Center field seems likely to go to Randal Grichuk, though at this point that’s because of his contract more than his recent play. The Jays signed Grichuk to a surprising extension last spring, and Grichuk responded with a career-worst .232/.280/.457 slash. That .280 OBP was the worst in baseball among qualified hitters. Even without a 2020 season, Grichuk would still be owed $29MM from 2021-23, so he’s sure to get a chance (or multiple chances) at redemption — but a replacement-level showing in year one of the deal isn’t what the Jays had in mind.
The remaining outfield options (in alphabetical order):
- Anthony Alford, drafted in third round (2012): A two-sport star who could’ve pursued a career in football as well, Alford has received just 59 plate appearances in the past three seasons and now finds himself out of minor league options. Alford was a top 100 prospect each year from 2016-18, but he’s yet to even hit in Triple-A and now has no clear path to playing time in such a crowded mix.
- Jonathan Davis, drafted in the 15th round (2013): Davis will turn 28 in a few weeks and has just 122 MLB plate appearances to his credit (with a .185/.264/.259 slash). Davis runs well and has shown a patient eye at the plate in the upper minors, but he’s been a roughly average bat in Triple-A and seems more like a fourth outfielder than a big league regular.
- Brandon Drury, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: As recently as 2016-17, Drury looked like a solid multi-positional piece with the D-backs. Since hitting .275/.323/.453 in that stretch, though, he’s been traded to the Yankees and then the Jays, hitting just .210/.261/.362 in 533 plate appearances along the way. Drury popped up an astonishing 21 times in just 447 plate appearances this past season, and his strikeout rate has risen from 20 percent in ’16 to 25.3 percent in ’19.
- Derek Fisher, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini: With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley, Jake Marisnick and Kyle Tucker all ahead of him during his time with Houston, Fisher never got much of a chance. Like McKinney, he’s not fooled by Triple-A pitching (career .289/.379/.520), but Fisher has whiffed in nearly 37 percent of his 419 Major League plate appearances — including a 40.2 percent mark in 107 PAs with Toronto. He, too, is out of minor league options.
- Teoscar Hernandez, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Francisco Liriano: Hernandez came to the Jays as an exit-velocity darling and still makes plenty of good contact, but his hard-hit rate and average exit velo did trend in the wrong direction last year. His strikeout issues aren’t as pronounced as those of Fisher, but Hernandez has punched out at a 32 percent clip in just shy of 1000 Blue Jays plate appearances.
- Billy McKinney, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: A former first-round pick (Athletics, 2013), McKinney has been traded from Oakland to Chicago to New York to Toronto — never receiving a real big league opportunity prior to Toronto. He’s since appeared in 120 games and taken 404 plate appearances with the Jays, but he’s mustered a tepid .227/.289/.437 slash in that stretch. McKinney has consistently hit Triple-A pitching, but that hasn’t stopped the Jays from acquiring new outfield options to join the competition.
The Jays have a potential breakout candidate in left field (Gurriel), a rebound candidate in center (Grichuk) and what seems competition brewing in a make-or-break year for many of their remaining players. The DH spot will give them some extra opportunities to evaluate all of their options from an offensive standpoint, but they’ll also want to get a look at Rowdy Tellez in that spot.
Both Alford and Fisher need to remain on the big league roster or else be exposed to waiver, while Hernandez and McKinney each have just one option year remaining. Drury is more of a utility option than an everyday piece in the outfield, but he was already in danger of being non-tendered this winter and is down to his final option year as well.
On the whole, it’s a rather underwhelming cast of characters despite the club’s considerable efforts to bring together a mix of intriguing, often post-hype outfield candidates. Between this group’s eroding minor league options and talk of Cavan Biggio eventually moving to the outfield — although defensive metrics thought his work at second base was plenty good in ’19 — it’s possible that no one from this set of players will be a part of the next contending outfield unit in Toronto.
The Jays already made one aggressive, win-now move this winter when they signed Hyun-Jin Ryu, and team president Mark Shapiro recently indicated that the Jays could use a center field upgrade. If this group can’t get it done whenever play resumes, it seems likely that Shapiro, GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office will be left with little choice other than pursuing more established options now that the club is moving away from its rebuilding phase.
They should make Chex mix that’s only the seasoned chex pieces.
Crickets
Had chocolate covered cricket once in Aruba. Not a fan.
Had barbecued iguana once in Tijuana. Couldn’t understand what the DJ was saying.
No comprende, its a riddle
im still thinking they might end up getting Betts to finish off their team.
there are plenty of f/a outfielders. dodgers will try to sign him.
That would be awesome, but I don’t think Shatkins have the stones to do that type of deal.
They reportedly offered Cole $300MM so 10/350/375 isn’t a stretch. Shappy’s got Rogers money now, gotta be a nice change from the Dolan doldrums. ⚾️
Biggio to cf and put tellez at 1st, Shaw/panik at 2nd wait a couple months and see how that works. Hopefully by the all star break Grich is playing well and they can trade him for someone half decent that can come in next season but hen they truly start to compete
Nobody is trading something half decent for Grichuk
If he starts out on a heater someone in need of outfield help would be all over him. But that’s from someone who wants him gone really badly
I think the Mets may actually give you something for him. More of a natural CF option than Nimmo. Not sure exactly what you’d get, but pretty sure they’d answer the phone.
For me, I feel like Grichuk will probably not be traded, cause I don’t think he could realistically get to a performance point that would entice teams to trade for him
However, I do see the Jays trading Grichuk back if they get a player with an expensive contract.
If games happen, and some expensive contracts start hot, I like where your head’s at here Skraxx.
Grichuk owed $28m for 2021-2023 plus another $1m signing bonus payment and some potential bonus money $1-2m.
Looking around at options that are owed money beyond 2020 and don’t have full no-trade rights. An obstacle that can be overcome, but I don’t think mentioning names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Eric Hosmer or the immovable contract that is Chris Davis is worthwhile (disclaimer: once upon a time I ranted about Jose Reyes immovable contract hours before the Jays traded it).
The somewhat believable options:
Danny Duffy $15.5m owed for 2021- he’d have to be on fire and KC likely prefer prospects if they move him…….
Jason Heyward $65m owed for 2021-2023 and limited no-trade- he’d need to come with prospect at that price……..
Charlie Blackmon $52m owed for 2021-2023 plus bonus potential, opt-out potential and limited no-trade- could be a strong fit but the Coors factor makes it a bit of gamble………
Ian Desmond $10m owed for 2021 plus likely buyout for 2022- he’d have to be beyond on fire and even then I think the Rockies would rather have low end prospects than Grichuk’s extra cost overall…….
Johnny Cueto $26.5m owed for trade bonus, and 2021 plus likely buyout for 2022- similar to Duffy, would need to be on fire but the money fits enough if the performance is passable on both sides for whatever 2020 action we may get……
Brandon Belt $16m owed for 2021 and limited no-trade- hard to see appeal, possible package piece though.
If Grichuk comes out and has a career year the Blue Jays will not trade him if they feel he’s part of the pieces to win a World Series. Yes they should do whatever they can to move him. I don’t see him being moved if the rationale is, “we need stability in CF and that’s tough to find”. Then if Grichuk comes back to being Grichuk, the Jays are stuck. I don’t see this front office moving Grichuk at his peak, wherever that peak is.
I don’t see the point in trading him for another bad contract.
Unless they’re filling a position of greater need I don’t see the point. And what do they need more than someone to competently play CF? Starters maybe?
I just don’t see it.
They are going to sign a few older dudes to buy some time. I can see them in the wild card hunt in 2021. But some teams mature early. Good luck. They are going to be fun to watch in the next few years. They also have some good pitching prospects o.t.w For what it’s worth I bought the best weed of my life in Toronto.
Our chronic is fire that’s for sure. Although most of it comes from B..C.
Dumbass.
Gurriel looks like a fixture in LF. None of the others deserve regular AB. They are at least a couple years off from legit contention, no need to rush out and buy free agent outfielders.
if any team needs a bone afide outfielder it’s us. There’s no guarantee one will available in two years when we’re ready to contend. Adding Mookie this off season is a no brainer.
If he’ll take Canadian money it’s a no brainer. You’re right.
The pandemic is going to dramatically change free agency next year though I think.
Rogers is a massive corporation that will likely hold up well during this time. Will that give them the ability to grab a player like Betts if his market suffers?
Canadian dollar has dropped dramatically. Will this be an excuse for them not to sign any big name FAs as the relative cost is higher?
It’s going to be very interesting next offseason.
Hate to argue with you about wrong points but Canadian dollar hasnt dropped dramatically. It’s typically hovered between .76-73 cents to usd, currently at .71. Also would still be paid in usd so why would he care about the dollar. It would in fact be good for him as his money would go farther in Canada. But all kinda a moot point Millie isn’t going to the jays no matter what they offer biggest free agent signing they’ve ever had was Russell Martin and who’s Canadian
The team cares about the Canadian dollar, which has seen about a 9-cent drop between January and March. It’s up 3 cents since March, still down about 6 cents give or take. That hurts the Toronto Blue Jays since sponsorship money for the team and TV works in Canadian dollars. I believe that was Dexxter’s point; a weaker dollar might scare off Rogers if $30-mil per year equals $42-mil in Canadian dollars.
He’d get paid in American money so the exchange rate won’t factor in for the players. What I am curious about is, the Jays used to get extra revenue money due to the exchange rate. Beeston put a stop to that when the Canadian dollar was worth more than the U.S. for all of 5 minutes. I wonder if it was ever changed back?
Rob Refsnyder is a perfect fit.
Should look at someone like Harrison bader for center
I think they’d package Grichuk with a younger player (AA or A) for a decent return. Nothing big but TOR needs another OF so before that happens Randall isn’t going anywhere. The other player would probably be used so they don’t have to absorb much salary.
Trade for Josh Naylor , sign Puig , keep McKinney