In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it! Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
The American League results are in! Click here to see who’s protected and who’s available for each AL team.
So far, we’ve covered the Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles. The Cardinals are up next.
First, we’ll remove free agents Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Matt Wieters, Brett Cecil, and Brad Miller from consideration. Andrew Miller has a $12MM club option for 2021, and we’ll consider him a free agent for this exercise. In the case of Kolten Wong and his $12.5MM club option, we’ll assume the Cardinals exercise it and protect him. Outfield prospect Dylan Carlson will be protected out of the gate given his 2020 ETA. Paul Goldschmidt, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, and Miles Mikolas will be protected due to their no-trade clauses. Here’s the full list of 11 players we’ll lock down right out of the gate:
Paul Goldschmidt
Dexter Fowler
Matt Carpenter
Miles Mikolas
Dylan Carlson
Jack Flaherty
Paul DeJong
Tommy Edman
Dakota Hudson
Giovanny Gallegos
Kolten Wong
That leaves four spots for the following 19 players. Be sure to check out their contract statuses and team control here.
Harrison Bader
John Brebbia
Genesis Cabrera
Austin Dean
Junior Fernandez
John Gant
Ryan Helsley
Jordan Hicks
Kwang Hyun Kim
Andrew Knizner
Carlos Martinez
Tyler O’Neill
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rangel Ravelo
Alex Reyes
Edmundo Sosa
Lane Thomas
Tyler Webb
Justin Williams
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Cardinals should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
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You’re missing a few teams that have been covered
only the AL results are official yet
They have the dbacks up there but missing the rest of the nl west. They also seem to be missing 2 al west teams.
Martinez, O’Neill, Hicks, Bader, done.
Alex Reyes is my only minor regret.
And forgot Andrew Knizner. I’d proooobably protect him over Bader.
Great minds think alike.
i think that will be my 4 too
No way knizer over bader
Knizner is a good young catcher whill Bader cant hit to save his life and the Cards have enough OF options.
I’d doubt that a team would risk selecting Alex Reyes in a draft. I went Martinez, Lane Thomas, Jordan Hicks, and John Brebbia.
I picked Helsley over Bader. But I agree with the other 3. The bullpen has always been a problem with them but Helsley and Gio were killer down the stretch.
Brebbia has to be on the list for mind, the quiet achiever.
Pretty easy, but let’s go through it.
Martinez
Hicks
Knizner
O’neil
I though I’d have a hard time choosing between Bader and O’neil, but once I saw the stats it was kind of obvious (despite Bader’s defense). There are also so… so many relievers on this list it’s pathetic. Brebbia, Gant, Cabrera, Martinez, Hicks, Kim, and Leon to name “a few”. But you just have to choose the high upside guys and hope for the best. They might lose some of their pen, but that’s a risk you have to take.
Bader, Cabrera, hicks, gant
I’d like some input from Cardinal’s fans on this, but is Knizner more valuable than Bader? I think so, but I’d like some input.
one million percent. Knizner is one of the best young catchers in the game.
One of the best young catchers in the game? Wtf, based on what? He’s a horrendously bad receiver and pitch framer and not even as good of a minor league hitter as Bader. He’s not Even the Cards’ catcher of the future with Herrera coming in hot. They should’ve tried to keep Kelly and traded Knizer instead for Goldschmidt.
If Knizner proves himself. Bader has the elite defense which is valuable under Shildt’s philosophy of run prevention. Unfortunately Yadi is blocking Knizner so we haven’t really gotten to see what he can do yet. IF bader can learn to hit somewhat consistently, I don’t think it would be much of a debate. I feel like cards fans were high on Yadi passing the torch to Kelly but it took too long so Knizner is up next.
My worry with knizner is he has had some playing time during Yadi injuries and his bat is beyond lacking even for a catcher. Defense seemed alright but idk that he’s necessary the heir apparent long term.
I think he is. However, they have Ivan Herrera in the system who the cardinals are extremely high on. Knizner is already 25 years old and Yadi could potentially be in St. Louis for another two years to cover the gap until Herrera is ready
Can you remove Cecil and Fowler now?
its paramount here Carp and Fowler waive their NTCs. too much potential lost talent.
i know these are early results, but cant believe anyone is selecting Reyes, who cant stay healthy for anything.
Some people still dreaming on the potential
that would seem to be the case, but those are painful dreams
Bader
Hicks
Knizner
Martinez
First three are easy:
Tyler O’Neill
Carlos Martinez
Jordan Hicks
I’m between Harrison Bader, Alex Reyes, and Andrew Knizner for the final spot. My heart says Reyes, my head says Bader. In reality, it should probably be Knizner, but I have a feeling he’ll end up getting the Carson Kelly treatment, so I’d rather keep one of the other two.
If not Knizner it’s Bader, but purely for defense. I chose Knizner, because IF he gets the chance, I bet he will salvage every moment of it.
Martinez has had his chances to be the guy. He can walk and make way for the slew of young pitching talent on the rise. O’Neill strikes out more than Alfonso Soriano ever did and doesn’t have a formidable glove to compensate for it.
Agreed but Martinez still has multiple years of control for a not-ridiculous sum. If he gets back to being a high-end #3/low-end #2 starter with even higher upside, he has a ton of value on the trade market. You can’t just give that away for nothing.
That Martinez contract is awful, there’s no way an expansion team would take it for who will likely be a long reliever.
Hicks
Knizner
O Neil
Bader
Will they ever settle on an Of? Not opposed to saving an arm for an Of but they have a plethora of arms and many of these will probably make it thru as well- I like Martinez but we arent picking up the 22′ for 17 mill 23′ 18 mill options so ill pass
Looking thru their financials it seems this team will stay internal for the most part for a while- They probably have enough to keep Yadi and get 1 star after 21′ in the big 22′ class if they play it tight the next couple of years- I dont expect much to any action next offseason for Stl other than maybe buying an Hr glass to count down Carp/Fowler at Ross –
They have enough internally to win the Div the next 2 years just dont be looking over your shoulder for help out there- Time to step up Bader ONeil /young arms
Okay, giving up a great starter with ace stuff who can also be used as a quality reliever, makes total sense.
While ill agree his 21 11 mill has value we are not picking up his 22/23 options here so we are looking at 1 yr of semi surplus value-
I think Stl is one of the few teams that can absorb some inns in the whole MLB, especially if there getting the 1 yr waino special every year
Carlos isnt exactly a sure bet in my eyes as well with health, like I said, I like him but weighed everything, you have 9 arb years of Bader/ONeil here left- We can find a starter for 11 mill next year if needed
I had…
Hicks
Carlos
Bader
Reyes
You guys are really high on Knizer, hope you’re right.
People still seem high on Reyes. His accident proneness has put a bad taste in my mouth
What are the rules on releasing players? Might be worth eating Fowler or Carpenter’s salary to keep another young player.
Thats a good question,
I could see Fowler hittin the bricks if he looks sluggish/old/hurt this potential half season to make some room for the youths in this scenario
Gotta keep Genesis and Giovanny together! The other thre I got are Carlos, Hicks and Knizner I’m sure that Bader or O’neil get taken in this scenario but I know Knizner would be too.
Shit… forgot about Helsley! I’d swap him with Hicks just because of TJ and I beleieve someone would take one of the outfielders and then would allow the team to protect Hicks.
No way I’d risk Hicks for Helsley. But I 100% agree with Genesis
I guess I just beleieve that Gallegos might be a better pitcher than Hicks, despite the 104 mph heater and not knowing what is going on with his arm untill further notice.
Fowler carpenter mikolas? WTF are you smoking? lol
Someone didn’t read
What about Kim!? I like the potential at the price, if I’m an expansion team I’m snapping him up as at worst a #5.
He is only on a 2 year contract, right?
This was one of the harder ones. Any of those high-upside relievers would be painful to lose. And one of the bats is capable of putting up an all-star season or two at some point … but which one?
Brebbia Hicks Martinez Cabrera no position players on my list easier to replace than pitching
First of all I would take off Fowler. Now I would protect Reyes
O’Neil
Hicks
Cabrera
Then to replace Fowler with Ravelo. I say that because when the Universal DH hits I think he would make a good DH.
Helsley, Hicks, Cabrera, and Knizner, but Knizner just so you can trade him for three or four prospects to fill in some gaps this creates. Take off Fowler so I can throw in ONeill and I’m happy.
I think ol’ Clepto and Maurice Locke might throw up a little. As someone who follows the Cards…
Martinez
Hicks
Bader
O’Neil
Bader and O’Neil are very fast and Bader runs out every groundball to the point that I have seen him force errors.
It is really close between O’Neil, Fernandez, and Helsey for my 4th.
Knizner I’m not that big on. I’d think you’d be keeping him for his trade value. If so, trade him before the draft.
Reyes and Cabrera are too big of risks.
Gant was almost non-tendered after his horrid second half. Brebbia is going to get too expensive for his actual talent level. Kim hurts but we haven’t had him yet. I can lose Lane Thomas due to protecting Bader.
Throw up? Why?
Because of the hack list you put together? Who are you and why do you matter?
Half the fun is discussing our picks and different opinions but I gotta ask, What on God’s green earth makes you think that Gant was almost non tendered? We have invested a lot into this young pitcher and it would be ludicrous to cut him after a rough stretch as he adjusts to the majors. Show me a GM who cuts this guy and I will show you a GM with all the professional success of Steve Phillips. LOL
No love for Gant? Kind of surprising
definitely on my list
This cracked me up. Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill have proven nothing. Carlos Martinez is often injured and doesn’t have a true position at this point. In my opinion Ling Thomas is more valuable to this team and Harrison Bader is and he’s barely even played yet.
My four are Hicks, Helsley, Ponce and either Cabrera or Fernandez.
*Lane Thomas
So the no trade clause blocks players well that sucks this is how we get rid of Fowler lol
Harrison Bourjos
I can’t believe some of the answers here. Protecting players who would never be drafted by an expansion team. What is the sense in that? I like Brebbia but you have zero chance he gets drafted. Just too easy to find a reliever like that via trade for cheap.
Teams draft based on putting a good team on the field in 3 years and a very good one in 5 years. Any attempt to draft a contender today is doomed to failure. Too many old guys unprotected in the draft and when you miss, the minors will be bare. Gotta draft em young and backfill with even younger talent to succeed.
Therefore you can eliminate anyone over 27 yrs old. Just scratch em off the list. Carlos? LOL. When you are ready to compete he will be on the downside . Reyes? Too many better opportunities for a lottery ticket with 3 surgeries. Hicks is an awful pick as a fireballer, with arm trouble who will flame out before you are ready. Trevor Rosenthal anybody?
To round out the top 4 picks in the survey it’s Bader. All glove, no bat so far center fielder. He could pan out but a better bet is a guy who hasn’t had this much trouble hitting MLB pitching. Wouldn’t you rather try for a Carlson? Or somebody who profiles like him? For these reasons none of these guys are likely to be drafted to begin with so no point in protecting them.
So you really want a guy with upside and a lot of control. My picks would be Knizner, Helsley , Gant and Fernandez. Barely beating out Cabrera. All with high upside and 3 have 6 yrs of control. Gant has a little less but is young and has had some respectable success in the MLB. Always room on your staff for a groundball pitcher that pitches smart.
Also most drafts let you protect more players as you lose some, so there are opportunites to save more. These 4 have the most value on that list. They can be traded at anytime to fill other spots on the roster, which cannot be said of the top 4 in the survey really. Hicks and Reyes won’t be traded as injured pitchers. Martinez could be traded but even the Cards won’t commit a rotation spot for him. (Goodbye value) and Bader would not bring back more value than my 4 picks in an offense hungry MLB.
TBH, these things are usually easier to handicap when you look at it from the expansion teams POV.
Try to be the Tampa Rays and not the Seattle Pilots.
Any good players above the age of 27 can be flipped at the deadline for more prospects than one expansion draft a lot allows. This is faulty logic.
Expansion draft slot*
Very few teams are giving up young players with control anymore. The saber guys have changed the game. Add to that, an expansion team has less leverage for the first few years cause they are not close to contending. The waiting game works on them better and GMs know it.(go ahead and eat that contract buddy) So the logic is sound. Like it or not.
I like the ‘Try to win it every year’ philosophy. Spots given on recent performance and merit not upside and potential.
Lots of Pitching you wouldn’t want to lose in Martinez, Brebbia, Hicks, Helsley, Cabrera, Fernandez and PonceDeLeon. Thankfully this isn’t happening anytime soon.
You gotta leave some people off and I know he’s gotten hurt and hasn’t shined exactly off injury but I’m not giving up on Reyes just yet. Before he got hurt or maybe the game he got hurt I can’t remember for sure I thought we might have a Jose Fernandez type. It’s a new game everyone can throw hard(a couple like Chapman and Hicks crazy hard) but when you see a guy throw a ball hard and still produce serious movement like Fernandez did that’s hard to find. I miss watching Fernandez pitch and I’m not a Marlins fan by any means. Reyes could once control if I hope he finds it again. Btw he’s not Fernandez it’s just a comparison of something I’ve seen in the way he throws with movement
I would’ve kept Reyes or O’Neill over Hudson if I was given the option (they were my first two left out)
Bader
Knizner
Hicks
Thomas
Knizner, O’Neil, Thomas, C-Mart.
I prioritized position players, since they can go everyday.
cabrera, fernandez, kim and sosa
I’m not sure that Knizner is even our best catching prospect. I sure wouldn’t be protecting HIM.
Helsley, Cabrera, Hicks, Kim
I really like about six of these men so four was hard to choose.. But in the end we have a lot of redundancy on this team with regard to position players and none of these guys have proven themselves to be outstanding. 100mph fastballs cannot be taught or coached up. They are just winners.
Martinez
Hicks
Helsley
Cabrera
Let’s roll.
Austin Gomber was omitted here