The Cardinals reached the 2019 NLCS on the strength of their pitching and defense, as the team’s offensive efforts could best be described as middle of the pack.Ā After letting Marcell Ozuna leave in free agency and trading Jose Martinez to the Rays, St. Louis did more to subtract than add from the lineup during the offseason, as Brad Miller and the re-signed Matt Wieters were the only position players inked to Major League contracts.
Young players like Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and (eventually) top prospect Dylan Carlson are expected to make up some of this offensive slack as they grow into being big league regulars.Ā If and when the 2020 season gets underway, however, the Cards are also counting on several underachieving veteran bats — i.e. Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina — to get back to form.
At the very least, Paul Goldschmidt performed markedly better than that group.Ā The six-time All Star’s first season in St. Louis saw him hit .260/.346/.476 with 34 homers over 682 plate appearances.Ā This worked out to a 113 OPS+ and 116 wRC+, both of which ranked second on the team (behind Edman) among Cards batters with at least 349 PA.Ā Goldschmidt also came up big in the Cardinals’ five-game triumph over the Braves in the NLDS, posting a 1.383 OPS over 23 plate appearances to help lead St. Louis to its first postseason series victory since 2014.
All in all, it was a very solid showing for a veteran hitter in his age-31 season.Ā However, “very solid” is not what the Cardinals were expecting from Goldschmidt, especially given their major investment in his future during the 2018-19 offseason.
The Cards paid a hefty price to acquire Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks in December 2018, sending Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2020 draft (that 75th overall pick was used on Dominic Fletcher, a strong defensive outfielder ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 20th-best prospect in Arizona’s farm system).Ā It was a lot to give up for just one year of Goldschmidt’s services, though the Cardinals kept the slugger away from free agency by signing him to a five-year, $130MM extension last spring, locking Goldschmidt up for the 2020-24 seasons.
It was the priciest contract in Cardinals history, topping the seven-year, $120MM deal given to Matt Holliday in the 2009-10 offseason.Ā The Holliday contract, incidentally, is widely considered to be one of the best nine-figure free agent deals in baseball history — entering his age-30 season at the time of the agreement, Holliday remained a very productive player until almost the very end of the seven-year pact, as injuries began to take their toll.Ā He was limited to 703 PA over the last two seasons (2015-16) of his Cardinals contract, though Holliday still managed a 113 OPS+ and 115 wRC+ during that stretch.
Some might call this a “very solid showing” for an injury-plagued Holliday in his age 35-36 seasons….especially considering that it essentially matched what the 31-year-old Goldschmidt did over only slightly fewer plate appearances in 2019.
Granted, that observation is probably better served to illustrate that Holliday was a very underrated player moreso than it was to hint that Goldschmidt is already in a decline phase.Ā Still, considering how sharply Goldschmidt’s 2019 numbers dropped off from his superstar-level production in Arizona, the Cardinals can’t be happy about already having to consider if he has already peaked.
From 2013-18, Goldschmidt batted .301/.406/.541 over 3944 PA for the Diamondbacks, hitting 181 homers and posting a 149 wRC+/150 OPS+.Ā His 2019 campaign, therefore, marked easily the worst season of seven-year span, and Goldschmidt also posted the lowest batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, walk rate (11.4%), and BABIP (.302) of those seven years in 2019, while generating his second-highest strikeout rate (24.3%).
As per Statcast numbers that date back to 2015, Goldschmidt also posted his lowest hard-hit ball rate (42.4%), exit velocity (90.1 mph) and xwOBA (.361) of the Statcast era.Ā His xwOBA is higher than his .346 wOBA, however, and since Goldschmidt had never previously enjoyed less than a .340 BABIP in any of his full Major League seasons, there is some element of bad luck to his 2019 results.Ā As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne pointed out last July, however, Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has been in decline as he has gotten older, which has been borne out in his dwindling stolen base totals and, by extension, his ability to beat out grounders and keep up those inflated BABIP numbers.
Connor’s piece (titled “The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt”) was published on July 2….which, in classic reverse-jinx form, ended up being just about the nadir of Goldschmidt’s season.Ā After posting a .742 OPS from Opening Day through July 2, Goldschmidt proceeded to hit .274/.354/.554 over his final 326 PA.Ā It marked the second straight year that Goldschmidt rebounded from tough beginning to a season, as he had only a .721 OPS through his first 243 plate appearances of the 2018 campaign before crushing it to the tune of a whopping 1.040 OPS over his 447 remaining PA.
It’s possible St. Louis could look at those 2018 numbers and think that Goldschmidt might just be evolving into a slow-start type of player.Ā And again, it should be noted that Goldschmidt in no way was a bad player in 2019, with a 2.9 fWAR.Ā The issue is that the Cardinals were certainly counting on Goldschmidt’s prime to last at least a couple of years into his extension, not see it potentially already end before his extension even begins.
As a what-if, let’s imagine Goldschmidt hadn’t inked that new deal with the Cards and instead tested free agency.Ā On the heels of his 2019 performance and going into his age-32 season, he wouldn’t have come anywhere close to five years and $130MM on the open market.Ā Jose Abreu was the only other major name in the first base market, and the unusual nature of Abreu’s relationship with the White Sox makes him something of an outlier rather than as a Goldschmidt comp.Ā Abreu openly wanted to remain in Chicago, to the point that he accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer and then signed a further extension through the 2022 season (an extra two years and $32.2MM).
Abreu is a year older than Goldschmidt and doesn’t have such a long track record of elite performance.Ā Yet, considering how many felt the White Sox were generous in their extension with Abreu, could something in the neighborhood of a three-year guarantee for $50MM-$60MM have been Goldschmidt’s ceiling in free agency?Ā Teams are less willing than ever to pay a premium for anything below top-level offense from a first base-only player, and it’s likely multiple clubs would have been worried by Goldschmidt’s 2019.
Plus, a qualifying offer would have also been attached to Goldschmidt’s services, and it’s not out of the question that he could have himself accepted the $17.8MM QO as a form of a pillow contract.Ā On the other hand, he also might have been wary about leaving any further potential long-term money on the table since his early-career extension with the Diamondbacks ended up being a bargain for the club.Ā Goldschmidt and his representatives might have looked for a multi-year deal that, ideally, contained an opt-out after the first year, allowing Goldschmidt to re-enter the market if he did indeed prove that 2019 was an aberration.
In any case, the qualifying offer could have potentially helped the Cardinals in re-signing Goldschmidt at a much lower price than $130MM.Ā Or, while walking away from Goldschmidt entirely would have been bold given how much they sent to the D’Backs, the Cards could have looked elsewhere and, in this scenario, had $130MM in future funds to allocate to another offensive player.Ā Perhaps St. Louis could have made a big push for Anthony Rendon, or maybe outbid the Twins for Josh Donaldson (a longtime Cardinals target).
It’s all total speculation, of course, as Goldschmidt is on the Cards’ books through the 2024 season.Ā Of all the veterans St. Louis is relying on once baseball eventually gets underway, the length and cost of Goldschmidt’s contract make him the player the Cardinals most strongly hope can get back on track.
This may be an unpopular opinion, but St. Louis did not pay a āheftyā price to acquire Goldschmidt. They gave up a catcher who had no real place on the team (because of Yadi), a young top-100 but not elite arm, another middling prospect, and a 75th overall draft pick. The oft-criticized Christian Yelich deal featured Brinson, Harrison, and Diaz (who were all top-100 prospects at or sometime before that time), as well as Yamamoto, a young prospect at the time. The Brewers probably gave up more value but everybody says they āfleecedā the Marlins. But the Cardinals give up less value and itās suddenly a āhefty priceā? Iām frankly confused at that assessment.
This
You definitely are confused. Yelich had 5 years of control and became a top 5 player so right off the bat even if the Brewers gave up more, they got a significantly better player. As for the package Brinson, Harrison and Diaz have all cooled off on their status. Weaver has a much higher ceiling than Yamamoto. Kelly is one of the best young catchers in the game and Cardinal fans dismissing him so much when talking about this deal is funny. Yadi is washed and they had the perfect replacement lined up. Being delusional about Yadi’s abilities is not an excuse for a bad trade.
There’s no argument that Kelly is a great young catcher, but having already sitting the bench for two with probably at least 2 more would have greatly diminished his development. The timing of Kelly’s readiness just didn’t match the cardinals needs. It was a good move for team and player and I’m personally happy he gets to play in the bigs.
This….the brewers gave up practically nothing to acquire a future HOFer with a decade of his prime to go to be played in Milwaukee.
The trades arenāt even in the same stratosphere.
Calm down. Yelich wasnāt great until he got to Milwaukee. So we will see how his career unfolds. He looks good but we wonāt hold the spot in Cooperstown just yet.
Yes! Great example of non moronic trading practice. Good point afsooner and you may still get resistance from the one’s here who have massive egos and can’t realize that they sound lost and asleep by justification of the Mookie and Cards Gold first baseman trades. I personally GM’s do when they want to trade their star player. First day pretend like they want to trade their star player and next the weight for May full I will give them weigh more then they can refuse. reality is they’re not trying to trade their star player they just want to get a package that they can’t refuse or they won’t trade their star player. The Rockies tried that, putting their third baseman Superstar on the block but they didn’t get a complete dummy so they took them off the block.
You are comparing apples and oranges in the sense that Yelich, at the time of the trade, was under team control for 4 seasons at a very reasonable rate.
Goldie was traded with one single year of control. (at a very reasonable rate as well).
I also think you are a little off-base in regards to Carson Kelly, Yadi is getting old and only had two years remaining on his deal when the Cardinals dealt Kelly. Case in point, Molina only played 113 games last season.
As far as big Paul Goldschmidt, a slight regression in offensive numbers was to be expected. People LOVE to talk about the “Coors effect” but fail to ever mention the Snake Pit also leans heavily to hitters. Arizona started using a humidor in 2018, which coincides with Goldie’s “slow starts”.
Now, with all that said, the Cardinals are not the least bit worried about Goldschmidt nor should they be. He is right up there with Rizzo and Freeman as the top first basemen in the NL on both sides of the ball. Regardless, PG is going to produce on both sides for the duration of his contract with the Cardinals and the Cards are lucky/happy to have him.
For 1 (one) year of Goldschmidt it is a hefty price. If you think of trading all of that for 6 years of Goldie, then it might not seem that steep of a price.
Hmmm… Well the Cards need a catcher Rn and Carson Kelly is a stud. and if they still had Weaver, they would have one of the top rotations in baseball.
have you heard of a guy named Yadier Molina?
Itās 2020 bud
Yes. He is very old and played 113 games in 2019.
People are hating too much on yadi, he was an above average player last year.
Andrew Knizner
A team like the cardinals have historically been extremely loyal to players who spend their entire career in stl. Dealing with yadis decline while still paying him big money is part of it, and they knew it when they were negotiating his current contract. It wasnāt, and still isnāt a bad contract because in some ways itās a legacy contract. Itās about more than his performance, itās about paying and keeping a Cardinal LEGEND happy and giving him what he has earned through the better part of his entire career. I see your posts all the time, youāre constantly shi**ing on Yadi and thatās fine that you see him through different eyes than a cardinal fan. But ask any diehard, casual, or indifferent cardinal fan and theyāll talk about yadi like heās the second coming of Stan Musial. His contract isnāt regrettable and neither is sticking with him through his decline, as thatās the small price you have to pay when you choose to treat your legends with respect and dignity.
Jeez man… when did I say Musial=Molina? Cardinal fans view a guy like Molina as an icon, and as a piece of stl culture itself, just like they do Musial. I didnāt say a single word about their abilities as players being equal. The fact that you donāt seem able to comprehend what was in my last post shows that youāre either too stupid to see anything beyond your own opinion, or youāre too hard headed to. Either way Iām wasting my time replying to you. Have an enjoyable Sunday, try not to let your weird obsessive hatred of yadi ruin it lol
They need better than above average if heās gonna block young players
Youāre definitely wasting your time. 413 is the smartest person in every room he enters and no one can tell him differently.
He’s had multiple profiles cause he gets banned for his ignorance. Like a child who always resorts to name calling because he isn’t mature enough to accept a difference in opinion.
You compare Yadi to the league average which is fine because it fits your agenda of talking bad about yadi…but the fact is he was still a top ten catcher in both leagues…so at his position he was still above average…and I know your going to say he has weak competition at catcher but that isnāt much of an argument when considering why the cardinals have stuck with him this long…he is still very valuable at his position and he is a clutch hitter…he had two key at bats in game four against the Braves in the NLDS…he tied the game with a hit and won it with a sacrifice fly…the cardinals where willing to give up on Kelly because they have Knizner and Herrera waiting in the minors behind Yadi…the cardinals liked Knizner bat more than Kellyās but it looks like Herrera is the true Heir
I’ll throw in one other aspect. Certain guys are team lifers. Molina will get HOF votes, ans no small amount. There are a lot of fans that grew up with the guy. If this was Carpenter, for example, he was a fine player, but a disposable piece.
I’d replace half the veterans in the league with minimum wage, solid prospects. But the Cards could not simply say ‘Kelly is a better value, so let’s make the switch’. I’m not a Cards’ fan, but they just couldn’t make that decision.
Iām starting to get a sense that Ivan Herrera is going to be the catcher of the future for the cards. Heās a better hitter than knizner and they say heās coming along just fine as a catcher. The kid can hit!
@413ROV – Molina is now the second highest paid player (behind Goldy)
Yes yes yes finally someone is coming out with tremendous knowledge. Dixon I agree 100 percent. I actuallyposted something similar and Cardinal fans went berserko on me. You gotta sugar-coat it for the card fans, that’s the way it is with them. I think they’re high strung fans and don’t mess with their product even if it’s garbage, you say it’s garbage amd you’re going to get shanked. The Cardinals right now are not a good team. They may end up at 500 they might have a great year where they overachieve and win 85-88 games but that is it.
Pujols disagrees? Lmao
He never had a single season as an Angel as good as any of his 11 with St.Louis.
Thatās kinda funny.
They gave up the farm for Goldy, at his age and then giving him a five yr extension
Wow big mistake
The cardinals did not give up the farm…They got rid of Kelly because knizner and Herrera were right behind him and time will tell but probably just as good as Kelly…Weaver can easily be replaced with all the pitching depth the cardinals have…and they have more than enough youngās in their system…the draft pick was too much I agree but they traded away players that easily were replaced…definitely didnāt give up the farm
Lol are you aware that last year we would be more believing in your Yadi and no room for a catcher statement but today the Cards need a catcher. Yadi playing catcher full time in 2021 is silly talk so perhaps the Cards do need this catcher my goat
Are you really this dumb in real life?
Worries lead to back pain
Carson Kelly wouldāve never gotten regular major league time with Yadi playing everyday and Luke Weaver was a great pitcher but on of many in the Cardinals system. Thatās a big price to pay for any level of quality from Goldschmidt, but the value will far outweigh what their value would be on the team.
Previous posters have stated that Yadi only played 113 games in 2019. That leaves 49 games for Kelly – not saying that 49 games equates to regular major league time but it would have been a start for both players.
A smart fan, thank you.
Iāll never get the argument that a team needs to trade a young player because they are too good for anything but full time play. There are ways to use such players, especially when they are catchers. Trading a good catcher away cuz you donāt have enough starts for them and then going with an inferior backup is a dumb plan. Kinda reminds me of the mindset of Met fans that wanna trade Dom Smith.
No it’s not that they believe what they are saying about “the no room” theory’s, it’s simply bun hurt Card fans trying to protect their teams moronic mistake….. that’s all. Basic logic tells you just wait for Goldsmith to become a free agent after 1 year. Just wait one year keep Carson and Weaver ensign Goldschmidt long-term and then you have three players that are going to make your team much stronger. Yes go ahead and put down my logic but really tells me I no more baseball
My 7 year old knows more about baseball than you, delusional troll.
Not a Cards guy, but I like the Goldschmidt deal. This guy brings a lot to the team, both tangible and otherwise. To me, his hitting, fielding, baserunning, clubhouse, and professionalism, are all plus factors for the franchise. Write that name in there and forget about it.
Unibomber?
Agreed. Even if his production over the next 4 years mirrors 2019, they are still getting a legit threat in the middle of the order, and a great glove at 1st. May be overpaying a bit, if thatās the case but still a deal Iād imagine the cards would sign again if given a do-over.
Cards should be worried if their minor league staff canāt continue to bail out the front office that continues to throw money away. It has not caught up to them thanks to their development program.
Goldschmidt is a beast. Ride it out.
Thatās the thing we have a very good minor league system overall so no worries as far as the trade Herrera and Kitner are very good prospects and the Cards still have a lot of pitchers in the minors just waiting.
As if they have another choice with Goldschmidt? Iām sure teams are really lining up to take on over 100 million dollars for a 32 year old 1B showing signs of decline!
Prior to the Goldschmidt trade, yes they did have a choice. There would be a couple teams willing to deal for Goldschmidt today if he was on a trade table.
The reason the Cardinalsā farm system keeps bailing them out is because they get more draft picks than the other big market teams due to the stupid Competitive Balance picks they get every year for being in a āsmall marketā. The Cards are always in the Top 10-12 in total revenue but the league views them as a small market team due to TV broadcasting audience size. Itās a bad rule and it should be fixed. The Cardinals should not be getting these extra picks IMO.
I agree
Extra draft picks are helpful but they certainly are not the sole reason for the Cardinals being very successful.
Hazen robbed them
i wouldn’t yet. last year was a bit slow but it was just a single year and, to be honest, wasnt that bad of one. Goldy can sometimes be hot and cold, perhaps he was just a bit colder for longer last year. (simmilar to 2nd half warriors Ender Inciarte or Brian Dozier never turning it on last year)
Most players see a decline in their first year at a new ballpark after spending their career elsewhere.
They got 1 year of him, the rest is an extension they signed. HAZEN ROBBED THEM!
however many years he had doesnt matter now because they were able to extend him anyway. I like the return too – ive been a huge Weaver fan since he came up. but the Cards traded from positions of strength – SP, developmental C, utility INF – to get a hugh defensive upgrade and a decent offensive one. (as in instances when Jose’s glove kept him on the bench) not to say he was stolen BY STL, but they got value and gave up pieces that had a better chance to be useful elsewhere.
STL could have signed Goldy to that contract without trading for him first. Then they could have traded Carson for something else and taken their chances on Weaver, Young and that draft pick.
Potentially cheaper too.
Yes, clearly you know more than him about evaluating baseball players. How is he a successful GM/president, I wonder?
As opposed to you, a sad hateful internet troll who has nothing better to do than bash someone far more successful in life than he could ever dream to be.
Teams trade for players in the last year of their contract to get the leg up on the rest of the league. If Goldy didnāt get traded to St. Louis (letās say the Giants traded for him), the odds are much greater for him to resign with SF than to jump to a new team, provided he enjoyed his time with the team. Thereās a certain comfort level players enjoy in knowing their environment. This is exactly why the Dodgers traded for Mookie. They are (or were) hoping that heād enjoy his year in LA so much that heād prefer to resign with them provided their offer is competitive of course.
I remember when they said that Andrew McCutchen was on a decline after his worst season in Pittsburgh. Then he rebounded after and still a productive offensive of player. He is no longer a CFer anymore, but he plays fairly well still in his mid-30s. Goldy is of the same breed and will be fine. Every great player has a down year and does well after. Itās usually around their age 29-31 age season these players have their worst seasons. After that, they rebound nicely for 4-6 seasons before falling off. David Justice was one guy who had a down year and on his last season with the Aās, he had one of the most productive seasons of his career. Jason Giambi, had a down year in NY and fans wanted him gone. He turned it around the next few seasons and guided them to the World Series. A-Rod fell off shortly after the steroid scandal and many said he was finished. Shortly after, he had 3 solid seasons and played like A-Rod before the steroid scandal. All in their early 30s and played well until nearly late 30s.
But McCutchen IS in decline. Heās still quite good but for the contract the Cards gave Goldy theyāre gonna want better.
If Goldy is a slow starter, then the Cards may want to consider a backup plan for 2020 at 1B. He may not get rolling before theyāre eliminated.
I understand the concern. But, I watched Goldschmidt play in Arizona his entire career while he was with the DBacks. His performance in Phoenix was everything anyone would want. Defense, power, average, big time at bats.
However, one element that is often overlooked about the field in Phoenix, that I believe helps hitters….Phoenix is the second highest playing field in MLB. At 1800 feet, the ball does in fact carry a bit more. I was in the stadium when Big Mac hit a ball in bp OUT of the building, estimated at over 535 feet when it left the building. I was in the stadium when Big Mac hit the scoreboard ABOVE the batter’s eye. I was there when Richie Sexton hit the scoreboard ABOVE the batter’s eye. So I do think the ball travels a bit further in Phoenix unlike humidity laden St Louis, where we all know the air is heavier and doesn’t allow the ball to travel
Did Goldy’s defense let down the team last year? I don’t believe so. Truthfully, did Goldy have anyone “protecting” him in the lineup…Ozuna? Carpenter? DeJong? Goldy had that protection in Arizona, believe it or not.
If you truly want to gauge Goldy’s value, put him on the trading block and watch what happens. If he is a wanted commodity, surely some team will pay the price and if he is not the player StL thought he was, the phones will remain silent. Either way, StL fans will know what they have.
I doubt anyone will pay $130M/5. There are too many mediocre alternatives at cheap prices. As a RS fan, I’d prefer a guy like Moreland. Nicely mediocre, but at only $3M.
Goldy was just as productive away from Chase.
@JPSimms – You have your facts wrong. Humid air makes the ball go farther (see the snipet below). Altitude, however, does allow the ball to travel farther as well due to thinner air, so itās the altitude and not the dry air in Arizona that allows more HRs.
With all factors equal, moist air is less dense than dry air because water has a lower molecular weight than nitrogen and oxygen. Since lower air density offers less resistance to the flight of a baseball, the ball will travel farther when humidity is higher āadvantage hitter.
It depends on what you refer to as ‘worried’. I think his AS days are over, and his decline has begun.
I guess the most worrisome stat is the continuining decline in BB/W, from .78 to .73 to .64 to .52 to .47. You seldom see 4 consecutive declines. The decline in speed is less important, but still a factor.
OTOH, I think this most current one-year decline might be a little bit of an outlier. I’d say two more years of above-average performance, followed by three years of decline.
Over 5 years, a league-average player for $26M per.
I think this is a very telling point. It reminds me a bit of Pujols who also presaged his decline by a declining BB/K ratio, also at around 31 years old.
Extending players into their mid to late thirties thinking their prime will last that long rarely works out.
As players age the slumps get longer and the hot streaks get shorter. During the hot streaks the player looks much like the player from the peak, although usually even those hot streaks are not quite as hot as the hot streaks during the peak. When an aging player slumps, it will cause many to view that player as nearly washed up. In both cases there are issues with confirmation bias and short term thinking.
In addition, it’s important to remember that great players often still manage one or two last really really good or even a great season in the middle of the slow decline phase of their career.
You can see very clearly at this wRC+ Graph Goldy’s career arc
fangraphs.com/players/paul-goldschmidt/9218/graphs…
Peak from 2013-2015, between 155-160 wRC+. Then from 2016-2018 a lower but still excellent level 133-146 wRC+. Then he dips all of a sudden to last year’s 116.
My sense from Goldy is that he has always been excellent at making adjustments. Had the Pandemic not interrupted the 2020 season, my guess is he would have “rebounded” from 116 to about 125-130, and been around that level for another couple of years before dropping down towards 110 or lower.
The base running and defense would of course continue to decline at a faster rate.
Adding it all up, I would guess Goldy to have generated maybe 12 WAR over the course of that contract. Very likely less than the 15-18 WAR one would probably look for to “break even” on the straight up WAR/$Value chart. BUT, and this is important: Goldy has a high floor, even through decline years. It’s very unlikely he doesn’t at least generate 10 WAR. The reliability of getting at least 10-12 is pretty high. And if ever the word INTANGIBLE is to be applied, I’d put it on him, For any team, not just St. Louis, that is valuable too. Often times intangibles are assumed with players who don’t actually provide any intangible value. I’m as stat oriented as anyone. But in Goldy’s case it’s fair to assume at least SOME intangible value above what you might normally include.
How his aging curve is now affected by what’s happened this year is anybody’s guess.
I agree. I’d say one of the contributing factors to shorter hot streaks is that your weaknesses become weaker. Everyone will see the same SPs, but if you show a weakness, usually the FB, then when the 7th inning comes around, you’ll see your hardest thrower for your weakest FB hitter. That starts to add up, especially as we see more more RPs in the game.
There was a nice study done (or published) by Fangraphs, showing the decline against the FB as players age. It was significant. Some older hitters get almost no hits against 99+ FBs.
But when facing more and more fastball reliant relievers itās easier to just guess fastball and mitigate the inability to ācatch upā to a fastball. In general I donāt think a pitcher pitching to a hitters weakness has a particular effect on vets vs young players.
From Olney:
“There are 22 hitters who have seen at least 30 pitches of 96 mph or faster this year and have yet to generate a hit against that high-velocity stuff. The bulk of those players are over 30 years old, including Ian Kinsler, Denard Span, Sean Rodriguez and Paul Goldschmidt. Through Friday’s games, the Diamondbacksā first baseman had seen 77 pitches of 96 mph or faster without logging a hit, the most in the majors.”
This is particularly relevant because Olney references (or cites) Goldschmidt specifically. 77 pitches at 96+, and not a single hit. He won’t be alone. And Olney is referring t ohis work in AZ, so that is at least a year old.
I’ll look for that study. Sounds interesting. If you have a link and want to save me some time….. š
From the old timey sabr ideas, aging sluggers player skills seemed to often show increase in walks, increase in K’s, but also still pretty high HR home run rates. I always thought this was because they took more pitches, looking for one they could drive, (or catch up to) So their walks go up, but so do their K’s….as they either can’t catch up, or they take more K3 looking. But when they get a pitch they can handle, (a slower fastball, a changeup, or hanger ) they recognize better than when they were younger, , due to experience, and can still drive those mistake pitches out. That’s just stuff I’ve thought, but don’t have hard data to support it. But the idea that aging players face more and more relievers throwing 99 would seem to put a big dent in aging slugger’s later career power numbers, as compared to yester year. That would seem pretty easy to prove.
I think all of these theories are actually very difficult to prove or weād be proving them. It can be done, but even simple seeming stuff like aging and fastballs, along with hitting and pitching approaches takes years of dedicated research to tackle. Which is why Iām just speculating and will defer my opinions to anyone with superior credible research. It would be interesting research, though. Iām too busy not writing a novel to do it myself though.
Good luck on that novel……send us a link when you’re done š
espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18519…
There are others, but they might be referencing the same set of data. Here’s another snippet:
“From 2016 through 2018, the hitters with the lowest averages against 96-plus mph include (among others) Chris Davis (.120), Mike Napoli (.123), Ryan Braun (.151), Jose Bautista (.165) and Ian Desmond (.178), all beyond their 30th birthdays.”
The best part about this is that the results only quantify what we would expect. Everyone slows down. It’s less when we are younger, but it accelerates.
Goldy is a leg injury away from having Pujols’s Angels career.
I guess that would be poetic justice. The Cardinals missed out on the crappy version of Albert Pujols thanks to the Angels’ historic overbidding and Pujos’ greed. After a couple of years, Cardinal fans rejoiced Pujos’ departure. Now Goldschmidt signs a hefty contract and has started a downward swing. Is it a one year thing? Hard to say. When will the owners learn that a high percentage of players will relax after signing a big contract. Many players have become less productive after signing those contracts, until their final sesaon where they need to do well to get another contract. One player stated on ESPN that a player’s goal is to have one good season and cash in on it. Owners beware, but they are blind. Granted a lower percentage have earned their money, but they are few and far between.
Wow, players want to get some of the billions of dollars their efforts are generating. What a scoop.
Previous posters have stated that Yadi only played 113 games in 2019. That leaves 49 games for Kelly – not saying that 49 games equates to regular major league time but it would have been a start for both players.
The guy hits 30 plus homeruns and everyone is complaining???
Did you all evwn consider the factors involved.
1) Its his first year playing for a new team. He’s human. Give the guy some slack.
2) What kind of protection did he have in the lineup?
I’m sure glad that everyone here isn’t a manager. You all wouldn’t have enough players on the field because they had an “Average season” for one year and you’d get rid of them.
The biggest mistake the Cardinals made was signing Carpenter to a contract extension. They could have gone out and got a better 3rd baeemsn who could actually hit.
Interesting post. With quite the twist at the end.
Donāt forget about the Dexter Fowler, Brett Cecil and Mike Leake HORRENDOUS contracts the Cardinals flushed the toilet on, on top of Matt Carpenter.
At least Carpenter offers some form of a glimmer of hope possibly?? I think Carpenter truly was not playing at 100% last year. Iām willing to give him another pass card, but for only one season.
Give the guy some slack……….. āAverage seasonā for one year and youād get rid of them.
The biggest mistake the Cardinals made was signing Carpenter to a contract extension.
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Interesting take. Goldschmidt had one down season, but deserves a second chance. And you’re on the hook for $130M/5.
Bur Carpenter, who also had one down season, was a mistake. And you’re only on the hook for $39M/2.
FWIW, Carpenter’s contract, even without a single AB, is probably a better contract than Goldschmidt’s contract, even if he plays the entire 5 years.
* worried in the sense that he is regressing due to age.
He is still good, yet his age will be the deciding factor as he continues to decline.
The Cards are lucky to be in a short term extension with him. Once his contract is complete he will be a part time player at that point.
Goldschmidt’s numbers will continue to decline, through no fault of his own, unless the Cardinals do something to make teams pitch to him. The rest of the current lineup will continue to feebly wave at any curveball. Goldie may set a career best for walks.
Mike Hazen is “the magician.” Best GM in MLB and the Goldie trade is a case in point – fearless and perfect timing. The Cards will make up the shortfall on his bargain Dbacks contracts while he puts up league average stats. That said, Goldie is a Dbacks icon and will be their next jersey to be retired.
Hazen is no better than the next bad trade he makes, the best in baseball is over stating any quote for a GM.
Baseball Posts
3 May 2020
I was surprised to see this trade when it happened. This was the same team that wisely didn’t resign Pujols after his age 31 season. Paul Goldschmidt’s first season as a Cardinal was..yep..you guessed it. His age 31 season.
Alright Cardinal fans, don’t jump all over me yet. I know not all 31 year old bodies age the same and the Cardinals are a smart organization that knows what it’s doing so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. Maybe they saw something in Goldy that made them believe he would age better.
His splits do have something to say. He had one really, dramatically bad month in 2019. I mean .582 OPS bad. This was the month of June and does lend evidence to the possibility that his poor year by Paul Goldschmidt’s standards was largely do to one bad month.
Goldy turning 32 will slow down for sure, I rate the DBacks as the winners on this trade easily.
I agree. I don’t think Goldy will relive his days of OPS hovering around 1.000 but I don’t think something short of .900 is crazy
Let’s hope 2020 even without fans gets in at least 80 games and there not playing in the snow that falls in the Midwest by Oct or Nov.
If the biggest problem Cardinal fans have is worrying about Goldie, then there are fans of 29 MLB teams who would gladly trade places with you. Figured his offense might take a slight dip after leaving a hitter’s park for St. Louis. That was to be expected. Still, Goldie is a Top 5 MLB 1B that I, as a Phillies fan, would love to have in our line up every day.
Phillies have a much better deal with Hoskins. Goldschmidt had a 2.9 WAR last year; Hoskins had a 2.2. But over the next few years, Goldschmidt will decline while Hoskins will improve.
As a RS fan, I’d way more prefer Hoskins.
I’d trade Hoskins for Goldie right now. Hoskins is no more than a .250 hitter with 30 HR. The first figure sucks and 30 homers isn’t as big a deal as it once was. Besides, in our band box of a home park, Goldie might hit 50 homers.