Tomorrow marks the two-year anniversary of a seemingly innocuous decision that ultimately backfired. On May 4, 2018, the Indians designated third baseman Gio Urshela for assignment. Five days later, they traded him to the Blue Jays for cash considerations, ending his decade-long tenure in the organization.
The decision to move on from Urshela made perfect sense at the time. He had never been a top prospect, instead profiling as a glove-first depth infielder. His offensive numbers in the high minors were fine but unspectacular. That wasn’t the case in MLB, though, as he’d hit just .225/.273/.314 (56 wRC+) in parts of three seasons. Most pressing, he’d exhausted all his minor-league options by 2018. Rather than carrying Urshela on an active roster already featuring Francisco Lindor, José Ramírez, Jason Kipnis and Erik González (himself out of options and capable of playing shortstop), the front office elected to move on.
Urshela played in just 19 games in Toronto before they too cut him loose. He cleared waivers, was traded to the Yankees, and didn’t return to the majors in 2018. He became a minor-league free agent after the season. Presumably finding no MLB interest, he returned to the Yankees on a minor-league deal last November.
That under-the-radar series of events proved massively important in 2019. With Miguel Andújar injured, the Yankees turned third base over to Urshela. He responded with an out-of-nowhere breakout, hitting .314/.355/.534 (132 wRC+) in 476 plate appearances. It’s an open question whether he can sustain anything approaching that production moving forward, but his underlying batted ball metrics were fantastic. In February, 68% of MLBTR readers opined the hot corner in the Bronx was Urshela’s to lose, even with Andújar returning. The 28-year-old is under team control through 2024, making him a potential long-term asset for the New York organization.
For the Indians (and to a lesser extent, the Jays), seeing Urshela’s success with an AL rival has to be a bitter pill to swallow. Obviously, they couldn’t have seen his 2019 season coming. No one around the league did, seeing as Urshela was available for little more than an MLB roster spot an offseason ago. Every team has players they wish they hadn’t let get away in retrospect (some significantly more painful than losing Urshela). Perhaps the 28-year-old simply needed a change of scenery and/or a new voice on the player development side to unlock another gear. Regardless of how and why it happened, there’s no doubt Urshela washing out in Cleveland proved to be a huge gain for the Yankees.
It looks like the Yankees didn’t see it either as they let him go as a minor league free agent. So much for the theory the Yankees have some magical analytics department that can predict success.
Nobody is saying that. The Yankees screw up all the time. See melancon. Any team would of taken Jasson. So not sure if this is a shot about his hype or not.
You really hate everything the Yankees do don’t you? Just change your name to Yankee hater.
Then didn’t let him go as a free agent. He was a minor league free agent and they didn’t sign him back THE NEXT DAY.
The Yankees didn’t let him go. They just didn’t kick someone else off the 40 man roster to guarantee they could keep him, and instead gambled they could sign him to another minor league contract. Which they did. It’s a good gamble, when a player has already been released by two other organizations, and you are whispering in his ear that there is a home for him if he can’t find a major league deal elsewhere. That’s the way a great GM gets around the 40 man roster, by creating a pool of 5-10 mid-career players looking for a second chance. It’s also a bit expensive in terms of actual (non CB-tax) money, as those mid-career players sign for pretty decent contracts to play minor league ball, often exceeding $100K/yr. This is why the Yankees like to play this game, while some other teams really can’t.
On that note I remember an article a few years ago reporting that other teams were complaining about the Yankees overpaying minor league free agents and driving the market up.
Would really like to see that article since the “pay scale” is the same at every level, for every team. So there’s no “overpaying” on minor league deals. Bonus even has a structure in regards to draft bonuses.
Would really like to see that article since the “pay scale” is the same at every level, for every team. So there’s no “overpaying” minor league deals. Bonus even has a structure in regards to draft bonuses.
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-found-another-way-…
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-found-another-way-…
It was an article about the Yangervis Solarte signing. Not only were they paying more per month for Milb salaries, they were giving salary guarantees, foreign opt outs and offering higher than the minimum MLB salaries. You are correct about drafted players. This was only pertaining to minor league free agents.
Just remember while his dee can’t be questioned, last year involved the juiced ball. I love good stories even on the Yankees but let’s see him repeat before reaping so much praise on him. He was after all released twice.
Gio is taking advantage of Yanks camera skills. Everyone knows Beltran showed them how. Look at Judge and how he sucked until he got to the majors.
And another moron announces himself.
I feel that the Dodgers are better at predicting success. They were able to turn practically nobodies Justin Turner and Max Munch into superstars.
Lad has a swing they’ve developed and utilized for at least 6 major leaguers, all within the last 4 years or so. It started with Justin Turner and has evolved. It’s really amazing how it’s been successful even for righties and lefties (Turner, Muncy, Lux, Smith, Kike, Taylor..) list keeps going
I’d guess there’s some baseline profile they look for and go from there, for ex they all have good batting eyes. But I do agree, the overarching success is impressive
I had no idea Max “Munch” was a superstar.
The Yanks already had a 3rd baseman as t the majors. Only smart management to stock the minors.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he regresses to league average hitting.
Happy to see Gio thriving. It’s not like we gave up on him. This wasn’t a Brandon Phillips epic failure.
Which would still be better than what he did for Cleveland and his tiny sample size with Toronto, because those were all well below replacement level.
Did you read the part about his underlying batted ball metrics being fantastic? He hit the ball hard and often, and ~500 PAs is an ample sample.
I would be more surprised to see him regress to league average than I would to see him repeat last year’s performance.
Considering he has shown league average numbers in the minors, I will bet, those return.
The power increase is suspicious.
Since he has totally revised his mechanics and approach when hitting, why would he revert back to the stats he built when using at totally different batting style?
Urshela, like LeMahieu, always hit hard line drives. The problem with the two of them was they hit way too many ground balls. The Yankees wanted them to use their legs to generate more power and keep those balls off the ground.
The balls were probably “juiced “ and his BABIP is high. So, he‘ll probably pull back but it’s likely he will not return to what he was before joining NY. He’s improved his swing.
Are you dumb? 500 at bats for anything is not predictive, especially when you have thousands of ABs worth of data sayin the opposite
It’s highly likely his 2019 was aided by the juiced ball and he will regress. It’s basic statistics, it’s not even about Fanhood…
I predict his line will look something like .264/.315/.445 12HR 47 RBI.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Urshela or Andujar become trade bait. Package one of them with Fraiser and a single A lottery ticket and you could Boyd.
Why would the tigers want any of that?
Frazier? Maybin beat him out of a spot last year.
Andujar? Hasnt played in a year and cant play defense.
Urshula? Was released twice.
A single a lottery pick? Single a lottery picks are a dime a dozen, especially when minor league teams are getting shut down.
I heard the Tigers are looking for a package like: Jasson Dominguez, Deivi Garcia and Anthony Volpe for Matt Boyd.
Gimme a liter of cola
shenanigans
Well, with the ball being on “steroids” and mostly everyone hitting way above their performance, I’m not surprised Urshela was performing above his expectation. Now with the league fully knowing Urshela and adjusting, I honestly doubt Urshela is going to keep up his performance. If anything, I see a huge regression incoming.
Yeah, I don’t expect him to replicate last year’s performance, but even so, I hope he doesn’t go back to what he for Cleveland and his 19 game sample size with Toronto.
That’s why we have metrics that measure performance relative to the rest of the league. Urshela’s 2019 numbers were stellar compared to the MLB average and every hitter faced that same juiced ball. And Urshela himself can make adjustments too so it’s not a slam dunk that the league’s pitchers have any leg up on him.
He request a long term deal, fast…
This juiced ball stuff is bs. It’s just a pathetic excuse.
It’s proven fact…..Rawlings admitted the balls were diff last year. Jeez
Didn’t they change the balls in like 2018? I thought they just started using the “juiced” balls in AAA in 2019, the MLB had already been using them.
Gio’s defense should have been enough to keep him on despite his anemic bat. But two things happened for the Indians in 2016 that essentially made Gio’s situation untenable:
1) He made some costly defensive errors in the playoffs, especially in the world series. It’s hard to sell a guy as being a valuable glove when his glove comes up missing on the big stage.
2) Kipnis’ experiment in CF was a complete bust. Which meant Kipnis back to 2B (guaranteed contract) and Jose Ramirez back to 3B. So now Gio could only stay on as a utility guy, and he went into 2017 fighting for that job against Erik Gonzalez. After 2017, they were both out of options.
As it was, the Indians waited to add Ursh until he was Rule V eligible (and likely to be taken). And every time they optioned him it was sensible. They gave him just about every opportunity they could. But some guys bloom late, and if teams are trying to compete sometimes they have to let guys go instead of hoping they might develop.
Just a little fact checking/ correction. Gio never appeared in the majors in 2016. His critical playoff errors happened in the 2017 ALDS vs the Yankees. During the 2017 regular season Gio made a GREAT play to get a Yankee runner out at the plate.
The move of Kipnis to the OF (as he returned from injury) was also in 2017. With Gio at 3B & JRam shifted over to 2B the team started its historic win streak in August 2017…
With JRam back to 3B & Kipnis back to 2B to begin 2018 there was a utility man battle between Gio & Erik Gonzalez & yes, both were out of options. Some early injuries allowed both to retained for a short time but eventually Gio was DFA’d & then dealt to Toronto (5/9/18).
I’m always happy to see any forgotten player make good. To me, no matter what the initial plans were for him, Cashmans brilliance saw to bring him on board. I’m especially happy for the player who got another shot at baseball. Win win
Cashman yes, but more so the scouts and hitting coaches like Thames. one game they showed his stance as a blue Jay and now, hand position was different. not sure on lower half though
I’ve always said there are ball players out there doing other things professionally nowadays because they just didn’t catch that one break they needed to parlay it into some success…Gio was pretty close to selling insurance before he took off like a bottle rocket last year
Serious question: If masks work, why can’t we use them and go back to work? If they don’t work, why are we forced to wear them?
Masks help reduce spread, but not so much protect you from contracting the virus. If you cough into a mask, it will capture some of the particles you’d otherwise be spewing all over the air. But it is not the end all be all of protection. In fact, a lot of flu viruses start from the eyes getting infected. If you truly want to be protected from a flu like virus like covid19 you’ll need tight eyewear, ear plugs, and a mask that has actual filters.
Serious answer: Masks and face coverings are a “better than nothing” alternative to N-95 masks and other hard to get devices. One thing too many people don’t realize in this narcissistic world we live in, masks are also to protect OTHERS from YOU.
When you breathe, cough or sneeze with a face covering on, you keep many of the particles/droplets/germs/whatever confined within your face covering. Without a face covering, sneezes and coughs and breathing (especially mouth breathers) can spread the virus up to 27 feet away and also linger in stagnant air such as in elevators.
There are very few masks available that actually work, but even a piece of cloth is better than nothing.
Reasonable question – It isn’t about working vs. not working. Masks are a filter – when you breathe in (and out) air passes through the cloth and some particles are trapped by the cloth. But many pass through along with the air you breathe into your lungs. Non-N95 masks (like a cloth mask) stop some virus particles but not a lot, depending on the type of cloth and fit of the mask. Thus, they do reduce risk a little but don’t eliminate it. They do a good job of making sure that if you are sick and cough, most virus particles don’t go flying through the air. But some still do.
If everyone goes to a baseball game, for instance, and everyone wears masks, the Coronavirus can still easily be transmitted by the virus passing though masks.
The glove is legit but I think the hitting was a fluke. Never hit that well even in the minors doesn’t make sense other than if they were possibly stealing signs. How else would someone raise their batting average 100 points at the mlb level it’s not as if he’s young and this was his first shot he’s been given many chances prior
I mean it’s not uncommon for players who struggled early in their career to become solid hitters. Not like Gio had an unbelievable BABIP that you can say he was lucky. His statcast numbers show that his numbers were not a fluke, he had above average numbers in every stat but sprint speed.
Sometimes it’s the little things like mechanical changes in your swing, as well as confidence that can change you as a player.
Jesus this board is devolving into InfoWars knuckle dragging territory.
To be fair, to say he got away, is a rush to judgement. He hasn’t replicated that season again, yet.
yeah definitely not a real virus thats killing people or anything…
He had one good year, can he at least prove he can repeat before we put him in the hall of fame
i blame TOR more. Cleveland wasnt able to outright Gio but i think the Jays were. they couldve kept him but traded him for nothing.
Is there some sort of directive to reference a Dierkes’ article as much as possible?
Juiced Ball **
So often a player is rarely as good as his best season, nor as bad as his worst. Here’s a question for NYY fans though: if the stats dip slightly, say to about .270 avg with 20 hrs, would you rather have Gio or Andujar?
Yes. He’s defense is that good compared to Andy. And we have enough explosive fire power in the lineup as is. Big games are lost from poor defense.
.270 with pop… and a high .360+ OBP and good defense is still valuable. I would take that any especially when he’s cost-controlled. We don’t know how Anduljar will bounce back from such a long layoff.
So, you think his OBP will rise , despite his average dropping almost 50 points lol. Gio doesn’t have the eye or plate discipline to have a .360 OBP. if his average dropped to .270. Goodluck with that, You’d be more likely to see Stanton play 150+ games.
He posed a question. I gave an answer. Lots of IF’s.
If he hits .270 , he’d prob have an obp. Around .320-.330 IMO.
Lol what a moron.
J.D. Martinez sucked with the Astros and then turned into a genuine stud. For every 50 guys that “could” make a dramatic turnaround, one actual guy does it.
This is true, but JD Martinez also had a MiLB track record of success. Martinez MiLB OPS – .931. Urshela MiLB OPS – .705. I don’t blame people for thinking Urshela will fall back to Earth.
Analysis by looking at spreadsheets, then hazarding a guess.
Multiple discussions during game comments by broadcasters, articles, even interviews – including with Cashman last year revealed what had happned……
The Yankees were after Urshela for years. They felt his defense was fine, but felt he was being mishandled when batting. The Yankees had a minor league coach go to work on him adjusting his approach and mechanics at bat. It took a bit, but it worked.
This happens all the time in MLB. Looking at stats has little to do with developing playing that have been in the bigs a few years and didn’t go anywhere. Developing players has to do with working on the players mechanics. Justin Turner was going nowhere when he made changes on advice from a Mets teammate, then worked with private instructors. That’s what changed his offensive production. Pitchers (particularly below average throwers) that suddenly emerge as impact relievers is due to changing their mechanics to what works. By the time the stats show something is working, the reason why it’s working has already been accomplished.
MLB today is all about developing players – and not just young guys in the minors.
Yeah, but *every* player is trying things like this. If they’re a competitive professional – and odds are they are if they’ve gotten to this level- they’re always trying to figure out what they can do better. If you asked every player in the majors they would tell you how they’re working on one particular flaw or making some adjustment.
Sometimes those adjustments help, but the vast majority of the time they’re nothing. That’s why we have the yearly ritual of making fun of “best shape of his life” spring training stories. Saying the Yankees saw something and it worked is ignoring the coaching plans they have on every one of the hundreds of players in their system. The reason, I suspect, that such an angle was ommitted from the article. It would imply that the Yankees in particular were doing something truly exemplary, when there’s just not enough evidence to support that.
What an unpredictable diamond in the rough! I never knew how bad he sucked in the minors. What is the comp? I can think of hitters that went from average to super star, like Justin Turner, Jose Bautista, and Jose Martinez, where you see an obvious mechanical, mental, and training change that makes them productive. It’s super rare and the Yankees were blessed. He could repeat or he could fall off. It had more to do with the mind than athleticism because he’s already proven what he can do athletically.
The evil empire not only spends more than most on payroll, they probably have a 10 to 1 advantage on R&D spending compared to most teams. One of their army of analysts saw something deep in the data that suggested a slight tweak and this player could be good. Notice they win nearly every trade they make? The big market teams are what ESPN wants so Rob wants them, the players union wants them. Meanwhile 20 franchises are basically hoping their lottery ticket comes in once a decade. My point? MLB is a waste of time. No better than Hulk Hogan always pining the stiff….Why do I even post if I am done with MLB? I want pig fans to know that not everyone is down with them always being good, and using 20 major league teams as a de facto farm team. Your 27 WS rings is equal to number of belts Hulk Hogan has. It’s phony.
Shouldn’t you be out on a ledge somewhere?
I don’t really know that I’d go this far in saying he’s the one “Cleveland let get away” I mean he had ample time to prove his value and really hadnt done much of anything to that point in the majors or minors. Nor did he really excel immediately following his release/waived from CLE. Any organization would have made the same decision — that he would then go on to put up ‘AS-caliber’ offense in 2019 is really what the outlier/surprise was. And to that end — I’m not entirely convinced that Urshela isn’t a “one-hit wonder” in terms of that he’ll go back to being just ‘okay’ as a player from here on out. I think he’s made it clear he’s a ML-capable player… But I’m just not entirely sold yet that he’s actually an everyday regular who’s going to hit .300 with 20+ HRs on a yearly basis. There’s just no reason to suggest that level of output based on his nearly decade long minor league resume.
I think the Rangers will probably regret trading Nomar Mazara to the Chisoxs. Mazara will have a breakout year – whenever baseball ever gets started again.
Cashman should have traded him this past offseason. His stock will never be that high again.
Diaz and Urshela would’ve fit really nice into their rebuilding/retooling plans.
One good year in the best hitters park in baseball? I’ll reserve my judgment
Yeah, no one is waiting to hear what you think.
Urshela’s glove was always going to keep him around MLB as a fringe player at the very least.
Check out one of his best plays:youtube.com/watch?v=8krA_VvMdAI
But the Indians couldn’t afford to give him an unlimited amount of time to develop with Lindor,Ramirez and Kipnis starting in the infield and Yandy Diaz on the way.
Let’s face it, the only reason he got the playing time with the Yankees was because they were up against it with a rash of injuries and then he went out and had a career year.
They gave him every chance to stick around. Great glove but no bat. The real one 5hat got away was Brandon Phillips, a guy that couldn’t make their lineup either and was given to Cincy.
I would argue more that Yandy Diaz could be one that hurts Cleveland more than Urshela. Diaz looks more like he’s gonna be a consistent hitter and I would bet Urshela had his Jesus Aguilar year last season and will likely return to his previous form.