You have to give the White Sox credit for signing Fernando Tatis Jr. in the first place. They snagged the 16-year-old as an international signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015 for a bonus of $700K, years after Marco Paddy had restored credibility to the team’s efforts in Latin America following the David Wilder scandal.
At the time, MLB.com ranked Tatis Jr. 30th in his class, which also included Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, and Cristian Pache. The biggest available international player was Cuban star Yoan Moncada, at a time when a team could elect to exceed its bonus pool and pay a 100% tax, as the Red Sox did.
Tatis’ father had played 11 years in the Majors, cracking 113 home runs, so the bloodlines were strong. In their scouting report, MLB.com said, “Scouts like Tatis Jr.’s swing, his strong arm and his fluid actions on defense. He’s shown decent arm strength and raw power to his pull side. Tatis Jr.’s knack for barreling up balls and his repeatable swing have also impressed evaluators.” Jeff Buchanan of FutureSox wrote, “Tatis clearly doesn’t have the same upside as [White Sox top 2015 international signing] Franklin Reyes, but his well-rounded skillset, high baseball IQ and professional mentality mean he likely comes with less risk than Reyes and is a better bet to maximize his potential as a possible everyday player.”
Tatis Jr. was certainly an interesting July 2 international signing, but according to Dennis Lin’s excellent oral history in The Athletic, the Blue Jays, Indians, and Rays were the only other teams to attempt to sign him, which is why he didn’t land the multi-million bonuses others in his class did. If teams had an inkling of what Tatis Jr. would become, he would have signed for ten times as much money. Most of these players were six years away from the Majors, and projecting that far out is very difficult. Many of these guys could have been traded for a veteran starting pitcher the year after signing and we would have never spoken of it again.
11 months passed between the date of Tatis Jr. signing and the date of his fateful trade to the Padres. How much height the infielder gained in the interim could develop into a tall tale one day, but in Lin’s article, the player himself said he added two inches. Padres GM A.J. Preller, then a member of the Rangers’ front office, had seen Tatis Jr. multiple times before the player signed with Chicago. Members of the Padres’ front office observed him at least twice after he joined the White Sox organization: during the Arizona Instructional League in the fall of 2015, and again during extended spring training in 2016. So Tatis Jr. was on the Padres’ radar as the 2016 season progressed.
Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler told Lin that the team’s efforts to trade veteran starter James Shields “became accelerated” after the pitcher endured a May 31st, 2016 drubbing in Seattle in which he allowed ten earned runs while recording eight outs. In the outing, Shields’ ERA jumped from 3.06 to 4.28. The day after that start from Shields, Fowler went on the radio to term it an “an embarrassment to the team, an embarrassment to him.” After trading both Shields and outfielder Matt Kemp, Fowler would throw shade in saying, “We made a conscious decision to ship them out because we want people that are prepared to improve.”
So if the James Shields trade talks picked up around June 1st, 2016, where did the White Sox stand at that point? The club’s record stood at 29-25, two games behind the Royals in the AL Central and firmly in the Wild Card race as well. According to FanGraphs, the White Sox had a 33.8% chance of making the playoffs, which was actually better than teams that sat ahead of them like the Royals and Orioles. The White Sox hadn’t reached the playoffs since 2008, and GM Rick Hahn was justified in seeking reinforcements.
At the time, the White Sox starting rotation was fronted by Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon. Free agent signing Mat Latos held down the fourth spot, but had a 6.54 ERA over his previous six starts. The club had recently released longtime rotation fixture John Danks, eating significant money in the process. Miguel Gonzalez was able to step on and temporarily hold the fifth starter job, with Hahn looking to make an acquisition.
As Hahn put it to Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, “That was a move, in going out to get James, that was due to the lack of depth in the organization. We did not have internal answers when (John) Danks wasn’t getting back to a form that was serviceable and (Mat) Latos was taking on water and regressing back to his more likely form for the rest of the season. So we had to do something stem the flow here. And that’s very fair to say that transaction is sort of emblematic of that past way of doing things and trying to fix it on the fly.” The team’s lack of rotation depth didn’t come out of nowhere, though, as depth seemed thin even prior to the season.
In just about every write-up of the Shields trade at the time, Tatis Jr. was listed after Erik Johnson, the other prospect the Padres acquired. Johnson, a 26-year-old righty, had been drafted by the White Sox in the second round out of UC Berkeley back in 2011. Coming through Chicago’s farm system, Johnson was seen as a potential No. 3 starter. His value peaked prior to the 2014 season, when Keith Law (then of ESPN) ranked him as the 59th-best prospect in baseball. But Johnson failed to stick in the White Sox rotation from 2014 up until the trade.
Could the White Sox have acquired Shields for different prospects? According to Preller in Lin’s article, “We talked about two of their top prospects. They weren’t going to move those guys. And we talked about Tatis as well. You got the sense that he might be the guy they would talk about in the initial conversations, just because he was further away and hadn’t played a game yet.” The top White Sox prospects prior to the 2016 were Tim Anderson and Carson Fulmer, as they had shipped off Frankie Montas in the offseason in the Todd Frazier deal. At the time of the Shields trade, Anderson was less than a week away from supplanting Jimmy Rollins to become the team’s starting shortstop. Fulmer had been drafted eighth overall by the White Sox the previous year, and it would be ridiculous revisionist history to suggest they should have had the foresight to trade him instead of Tatis Jr.
Was it reasonable for the White Sox to expect a midseason boost from Shields? MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth and Connor Byrne wrote at the time:
Shields, 34, isn’t the pitcher he was during his best years with the Rays and Royals, but he remains a competent innings eater who’s on pace to exceed the 200-inning plateau and surpass the 30-start barrier for the 11th straight season. That aside, Shields does come with red flags. After a dreadful final start with the Padres, Shields’ ERA (4.28) is at its highest since 2010. Further, his strikeout rate – which spiked to a personal-best 9.61 per nine innings last year – has regressed to 7.62 (closer to his 7.84 career average) and the control that he displayed in his earlier days has declined. Shields’ walk rate is at 3.61 per nine innings, which is in line with last year’s 3.6, and his velocity has dipped. To Shields’ credit, he has long been a capable ground-ball generator – at 48 percent this year, there’s no sign he’s slowing down in that area. That should help his cause as he shifts to the hitter-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field, but he does have the third-highest home run rate among qualified starters since last season (16.9 percent).
While Shields may have been an innings eater at that point in his career, no one expected him to post a 6.77 ERA for the remainder of the season. It wasn’t crazy to view him as a useful veteran addition. Plus, the Padres kicked in over $30MM, more than half of the money remaining on his contract. To the White Sox, Shields looked to be an affordable rotation piece for the remainder of 2016 as well as the ’17 and ’18 seasons.
The White Sox pounced on Shields early, basically kicking off the 2016 trading season. Later that summer, the Padres would also go on to trade their best starter, Drew Pomeranz, as well as Andrew Cashner. The Orioles picked up Wade Miley, the Dodgers acquired Rich Hill, the Pirates snagged Ivan Nova, the Angels and Twins swapped Ricky Nolasco and Hector Santiago, and the Blue Jays got Scott Feldman. There are many alternate universes where the White Sox acquire someone other than Shields, and who knows whether Tatis Jr. would have been involved. They also could have plugged in Miguel Gonzalez in June, held off on trades for a month like most teams, and realized they should be sellers rather than buyers.
Hahn has owned the Tatis Jr. trade, calling himself a “jackass” in front of fans and telling MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, “That was probably the last deal we made with having a short-term mindset in mind. Ultimately when this thing gets right, we are going to once again have a shorter time arising goal with our trades. It doesn’t mean you want to make a deal that haunts you for the long term, obviously.” Every GM has a trade he’d like to take back. Around that same time, the Marlins traded Luis Castillo, got him back due to a medical dispute, and then traded him again in the offseason. It was also the summer where the Dodgers traded Yordan Alvarez, as outlined here.
Though Hahn admitted to Greenberg in 2017, “I probably physically cringe whenever I see a Tatis highlight,” the club embarked on what seems to have been a successful rebuilding effort after the ’16 season. The White Sox brought in Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech in subsequent trades and pounced on Luis Robert in the international market. Tatis Jr. may always be the one that got away, but an extended playoff run should take the sting off for the White Sox.
For more on the topic of the Tatis Jr. trade, be sure to check out Jeff Todd’s video on our YouTube channel.
That was a horrid trade!
Tatis was unknown, White Sox we’re winning at the time and they needed a arm. Tatis had never played a game in the minors
The only thing he had going for him at the time was his name
He went from an unknown to top prospect in two years without the White Sox having an idea of his potential?
He signed for $700,000 (with the Sox – meaning they saw more in him than anyone else), and only 4 teams were interested enough to attempt to sign him. Nobody saw anywhere near this kind of potential in him.
I get the tatis part of the deal looks awful in hindsight and it was virtually impossible to know he would be this good, but Shields was coming over a year and a half of mediocre work in San Diego and was 34. Why are you trading a 17 year old who was holding his own in low A, where he was 4 years younger than the average player and the AZL?
“Why are you trading a 17 year old who was holding his own in low A, where he was 4 years younger than the average player and the AZL?”
They didn’t… He never played a professional game for the Sox organization.
the first time i saw him was watching him play for our local Low-A affiliate, Fort Wayne Tincaps. I told my wife that night, he was gonna be a star. Then I found out the ChiSox had traded him, and I shat myself…
the first time i saw him was watching him play for our local Low-A affiliate, Fort Wayne Tincaps (SD system). I told my wife that night, he was gonna be a star. Then I found out the ChiSox had traded him, and I shat myself…
Get over it.
Old news!
How did Cubs trade Lou Brock!
And why did the Phillies trade Ryne Sandberg?
Sandberg and Brock that’s typical Padre fan comparing guy who hasn’t played full season or learned to field to 2 HOF players.
Yankees traded Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps
Yankees traded Fred McGriff, Dave Collins and Mike Morgan for Dale Murray and Tom Dodd. Waaaaaay more lopsided than Buhner for Phelps.
Why the hell would you trade Jay Buhner!? He’s got a rocket for an arm, you don’t know what the hell you’re doing!
Dude, you a true loser and troll. Please go away, oh wait then we won’t be able to laugh at your ignorance. Yiu are a true sinpleton.
At least that sinpleton can spell a simple word like YOU correctly.
Somebody named Pujols was almost traded for a back up catcher named Carlos Hernadez. Why did the Cubs trade Torres? When you have a need you make sacrifices. In hindsight imagine how good the chi sox would be right now with Tatis Jr? Theoretically one of the best line ups in the AL. I bet the braves wish they woulda held on to Wainwright. The list goes on and on. I have a feeling one day the cardinals will wish they never signed Fowler, didn’t trade Mercado, or Arozarena. Somebody get these GM’s a crystal ball please!
Very good comment. GM’s got to make trades, gotta “roll the dice”. How about, why did the Tigers trade Smoltz? Or why did the Red Sox trade Bagwell? Why did the Pirates trade Alou? Because teams had a need to fill, so they coughed-up some young kid to make a deal happen. And yes, letting Arozarena go feels bad, that guy looked studly in his short time with the Cardinals. Fowler was already off to a terribly slow start in spring training 2020 and there’s little reason to believe he’s going to turn it around this summer, that is, if there is baseball this summer. Arozarena and Mercado play on other teams because the Cards have a ton of outfield, pitching, and catching prospects. Carson Kelly turned out to have a pretty good season in Arizona because the Cards needed Goldschmidt so badly. It happens.
But there is another side of the coin when you hold onto your prospects. Greg Bird was supposed to be the best of this group of young Yankees. Of course, we know the story: he could not stay healthy. No one: not Cashman nor Preller nor Kenny Williams has a crystal ball.
Didn’t cubs trade Torres for Chapman? And then didn’t they win the world series after?
Sure it looks bad now but I bet they will still make that trade 100/100.
Chapman was so bad he almost costed the cubs a ring
Cost*
Just because you win a world series does not mean every single one of your moves are then validated. You can still make a bad move and win a world series
to be fair, Carlos Hernandez was a NL champ with the 1998 padres, and he was an everyday player.
How did the yanks trade buhner to the M’s idk but I was okay with it
And conversely, how did the Mariners trade Tino Martinez *AND* Jeff Nelson to the Yankees.
And then the biggest lose-lose trade I can think of in recent memory: Yankees-Mariners, Pineda-Montero.
Man, there have been some bad trades between those two teams…
How could the Yankees trade Fred McGriff! We can go all day. Everyone’s made some bad ones.
I feel your pain White Sox fans- Ive watched the Mariners make not one painfully bad trade but 6 horrendous trades. How about Adam Jones, Chris Tillman and George Sherrill for Erik Bedard trade. The difference in WAR accumulated for both teams worked out at -35.2 WAR for the Ms. Or maybe it’s trading Cliff Lee for a package that inc Justin Smoak who gave us 5 years worth 0.9 bWAR and RP Josh Leuke who served 42 days in jail after being charged for felony rape. How about the trade that sent Mike Hampton to HOU for Eric Anthony who accumulated -0.7 WAR
There’s the trade of SP Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez who never made it to the bigs. Or Shin Soo Choo for Ben Broussard who gave us -0.8 WAR. We traded Omar Vizquel for Felix Fermin and Reggie Jefferson. The overall WAR difference in that trade was -28.4 for the Ms. The absolute worst trade in Ms history had a difference in WAR value of -41.9 for the Ms was the Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek trade for Heathcliff Slocumb who accumulated a total of 0.6 WAR for Seattle
Almost as bad as the Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb trade between Seattle and Boston. If you measure the difference in the amount WAR accumulated by both teams it comes out as single worst trade in Mariners history with a WAR value of -41.9 for Seattle. Worse than the Adam Jones trade which had a -35.2 WAR difference for Seattle.
Adam jones for Erik Bedard ?
Not just 5 time All-Star 4 time Silver Slugger award winning Adam Jones, we also threw in SP Chris Tillman, an All-Star in 2013 and RP George Sherrill an All-Star in 2008
Mets – Nolan Ryan. But then they make a great deal getting David Cone. It all sort of balances out in the end, with the exception of the Marlins.
Arhb, that’s a world full of hurt. Galaxy full actually. Thanks for making us all feel better
I’m old enough to have seen countless “can’t miss” prospects indeed miss…by a lot and I don’t recall Tatis, Jr. ever being referred to as “can’t miss”. As the saying goes, “Hindsight is 20/20”. When the Sox traded Tatis, Jr.. to the Padres virtually everyone simply shrugged their shoulders and/or said, “The Sox traded who?” I’m also old enough to remember that when the Cubs traded Lou Brock for the late Ernie Broglio the “experts” thought the Cubs had absolutely fleeced the Cardinals. As it turned out it was the Cubs who had been fleeced because they had received an injured pitcher from the Cardinals. Cases could be made that the Sox didn’t give Tatis, Jr. enough time to develop and find out what they actually had and that the Cubs had used Brock incorrectly. At the time of these trades, no one could have predicted the success these two players were going to have.
Why do you White stockings always hate on the cubs? This article has nothing to do with us but you guys always mention us. Listen we know you deeply envious but you don’t want to admit it. You’ve guys have made such terrible decisions over the years and yet you still talk crap about the Cubs. I bet we will go into more World Series before you even reach the AL championship. It’s okay to admit and want to jump on our bandwagon we will accept you with open arms
I failed to mention the Cubs were unaware that Ernie Broglio was injured because the Cardinals chose not to mention it. Teams rarely made a big deal of that sort of thing back then, but players weren’t making millions either. Please don’t use the word hate so freely. Doing that cheapens its actual meaning and impact.
ChiSox … how the heck did the White Sox trade Tatis!! Answer the question as no one believes you are over it!! Haha
Tim Anderson in case you forgot had highest the BA in ALL of Mlb last year. Cubs traded Torres because they thought Addison Russell was their SS or 2b for next 5-6 years but that didn’t work out so well, did it? Instead they were plugging divorcee Zobrist, Descalso, David Bote and Garcia, Lol! Sometimes you trade depth pieces/prospects for areas of other need- starting pitching, closers, etc.
I still think the Tatis hype is a bit overblown. Let’s see if he can put up 3 really good seasons (without injuries). A good question would be would you rather have Gleyber Torres or Tatis Jr for next 5 years? I’d take Torres 7 days a week and twice on Sunday!
Article about a bad Cubs trade…ChiSoxFan all over it!!!! Article about a bad Sox trade, it’s a troll article. How do you have such a weak backbone buddy? Seriously, how do u get out of bed and walk.
Sox already had and still has a stud SS in the system.
Won batting MLB BA title last year, remember?!
TA#7
Happy to have seen Tim Anderson up close for the first time in Anaheim of Los Angeles last year.
His athleticism and swing were even more impressive in person.
And TA’s bat flip is a thing of beauty!
Calling Tim Anderson a stud is a stretch. He won a battling title, but he has regressed significantly defensively, and had the worst walk rate in history for a batting champion.
He is an average to above average player. Not a stud.
to say he’s anything less than above average is also absurd. its hard to be simply an average player and win a batting title, especially at a clip of better than 1 hit per 3 at bats.
No doubt Anderson is a good player…
…but he’s only the 3rd best shortstop in his division!
Freddy Sanchez won a batting title.
Avi Garcia had the second highest average in 17, and would have been second again this season.
Average is just one indicator of a player’s ability, and an outdated one. Until he improves his defense and learns to take walks, he won’t be a complete player.
maximum is just a troll. His takes are awful, so that makes him a bad troll to boot.
Calling Tatis a stud is stretch 1/2 season
Freddy Sanchez was a good player as well. The guy is not a Hall of Famer or anything, but he was a 3 time All Star. I think that means he was pretty good for a short time if anything.
I think Sanchez was the shoe in all star for the Pirates because every team needs a player representative
okay, good point
No one here was calling Tatis a stud MLBer yet. He was up until his call up a super-stud prospect (1a or 1b in MLB). There’s a difference and no one until you seemed to be confusing them.
Maximumvelocity- I’m with Chi_Soxfan here: It doesn’t really matter what we think since its all conjecture anyway but imo Tim Anderson is a really good SS. -SB numbers across MLB are way down. He has 68SB in 4 years to go w his career mark of .276/.303/.435. The hitting profile alone is def not elite but you throw in an avg of 17SB ea year I think that makes him a really good SS
Sorry. But I have a problem calling any player really good when they rank as one of the worst defensive players at their position, especially if the play a premium defensive position.
Anderson still has upside, but right now, he is a poor fielding SS who has to hit for a high average to be productive offensively, because he lacks the ability to draw walks. If he can sustain this unorthodox offensive approach, and improves this defense, then he may enter the great category.
Jason Bay was the Pirates usual all star most of Freddy’s tenure in Pittsburgh
Maximum the White Sox fanbase just do not understand baseball
Studs don’t have a career .303 OBP. Average players do. lol
“Studs don’t have a career .303 OBP. Average players do. lol”
Do studs have a career .310 OBP?
I also love how everyone craps on his defense based on 1 bad year. Do you all realize he was top 10 in OOA in 2018? Yes, 2019 was a bad year defensively; there’s no denying that. To assume that’s what he’ll be going forward is shortsighted. The guy is a freak athlete and works his tail off, and he has already proven he can be a very good defender. Do you really think he regressed that much? I sure don’t.
A stud who struggles defensively and pimps homeruns against 100 loss teams? Oh yeah, him.
Aww, did Timmy hurt your feelings?
God forbid players have fun playing baseball.
Point out the fun that started after point of contact, if you can. Then I’ll figure out if my feelings were hurt.
But seeing the pitcher throw at him was really fun wasn’t it, lightweight?
What about Adam Jones and Chris Tillman to Baltimore with Erik what’s his name going to Seattle?
The point is that they gave up Tatis for fckin Shields hahaha doesn’t matter who you already have at shortstop that’s still a dumba$$ trade by the White Sox.
ChiSox so your position is the Sox did not need Tatis since they had Anderson?
So I guess the Sox were going to cut Tatis? Haha.
I guess the White Sox did not need Semien either!
They actually didnt. Marcus was pretty atrocious defensively- they tried hiding him elsewhere around the IF. He was still a lost cause until Wash went to work with him. Kudos to the As for teaching him how to handle SS
As greed. I generally believe Preller is incompetent, but that deal saved him.
Why did a cubs release Grover Cleveland Alexander
Who then went on to Cards and helped them to 2 World Series
Playoffs and their first of many World Series wins
Releasing great hall of gamers
Why did a cubs release Grover Cleveland Alexander
Who then went on to Cards and helped them to 2 World Series
Playoffs and their first of many World Series wins
Cub mistakes
Releasing great hall of gamers
Why did a cubs release Grover Cleveland Alexander
Who then went on to Cards and helped them to 2 World Series
Playoffs and their first of many World Series wins
Cub non trade
Releasing great hall of gamers
Why did a cubs release Grover Cleveland Alexander
Who then went on to Cards and helped them to 2 World Series
Playoffs and their first of many World Series wins
Releasing HO Famer Grover Cleveland amexander who led St Loius to first 2 World Series, winning one of them their first.
How come no one has mentioned that time Grover Cleveland Alexander was released by the Cubs?
I heard he was given rave reviews by St. Louis.
This did make me LOL
The Philadelphia Athletics traded Nellie Fox to the Chicago White Sox for Joe Tipton.
It was actually a roll of the dice for both sides. The Sox were gambling that Shields still had something in the tank. Tatis had promise, but had never played a professional game. Preller’s gamble was that he would grow into a good player. As we all know, most prospects don’t deliver as hyped.
It might have worked out the other way too. Shields could have gotten his groove back in Chicago and Tatis could have fizzled. You just never know.
Duh……..
This is like the Suárez trade
Worse. Much worse.
At least Alfredo Simon theoretically had positive trade value at the time. It’s nothing short of a miracle that the Padres were able to move James Shields at all.
sure Simon had a few good years…but cmon, Alfredo freaking Simon?
Yeah when the reds traded Simon I didn’t care at all, he was pretty good in 14 but besides that he’s never been great and he fell off a cliff right when he got to Detroit. Id say right now that’s a worse trade than shields for tatis because we need to make sure tatis can sustain his level of production, Suarez has already proven himself. Tatis needs another half season-full season to show who he really is cause BABIP over .390 is insane won’t be able to keep it up
^
After the season he was coming off when he was traded and still being in his arb years Alfredo SImon had some surplus value. Shields with his contract did not.
Worse……Tigers were trying to win a World Series and it was a bit of luck by CInci. Tigers had the choice of any of 3 SS to consummate the trade and they sent the wrong one. It isn’t like CInci chose Suarez, Tigers had the option and picked the one winner to send over. The other two are not even in baseball anymore.
Yeah, no kidding. Kid is a monster.
Presently this trade looks poorly for the White Sox but at the time of the trade Tatis Jr. was not even close to a top tier prospect. Hindsight is 20/20. I have lost zero sleep over this trade. In baseball trades out like this occasionally. I’m a White Sox fan since the late 40’s and we’ve won deals and lost deals since then. People need to get over this.
I agree.
Me too.
I agree completely. At the time of this trade in 2016, Tatis was 17 years old and was not even in rookie ball. He did not even crack top-100 lists until pre-2018. Granted he had upside, but he was a lottery ticket. The reason teams trade for lottery tickets like Tatis Jr. (and like Franklin Barretto, the key piece in the Donaldson trade) is because sometimes they pay off. The reason teams trade lottry ticket prospects away is because they generally don’t.
Since the 40s? Come on. Did you also fight in WW1?
Late 40’s, my war was Vietnam. Are you satisfied?
Some of these people just don’t know anything about any year that doesn’t start with 20. To them, those of us from the 20th century were basically living in caves and bonking wooly mammoths on the head for food.
Love how he doubts you and your name even has 49 in it.
I actually meant to say a fan since the late 50’s. It’s sort of hard to be a big White Sox fan the year you’re born.
I agree. Erik Johnson was the main piece in that deal. Tatis was really only a lottery ticket with a dad that hit 2 grand slams in an inning. Sometimes lottery tickets win. Even though the guy has still only played half a year.
Agree, dont begrudge an in season trade for a seasoned vet who they viewed as a back end innings eater for a lottery ticket. For every Tatis Jr there are at least a dozen Ryan Sweeneys, McKay Christensens, Jeremy Reeds, Joe Borchards and Jon Rauchs that dont pan out. I’m more concerned about the decade or so of failed #1 picks due to the misbegotten emphasis on high floor low ceilings college guys like Gordon Beckham or the three headed Poreda-Broadway-Mcculloch monster. That’s what really killed the Sox until their current enlightenment. Sometimes it takes a turkey like the Big Game James fiasco to shake an organization up. Maybe if they dont get fleeced in the Tatis deal, they decide to muddle along for another 5-7 years and dont go all in on the rebuild.
Babe Ruth, Lou Brock and the Dodgers trading Pedro Martinez for Delino Deshields are 3 of the worst trades I can think of off the top of my head. Carlton, Morgan and Bagwell, were pretty one-sided too.
Bagwell (presuming you mean Jeff Bagwell) was at least super blocked. He was a 3B in the minors and blocked not only at 3B by Boggs, but also at 1B by Vaughn. Perhaps he could have been tried as a COF, but I don’t know immediately know who the Red Sox had in those slots at the time.
And while that doesn’t excuse giving him away for bad value, it does help explain the mistake.
This one hurts bad because Sheids was a fail literally from day one. Had he had even a little success it would still hurt but not nearly as bad.
He ate a lot of innings
Yes, he did, but other than that he was an absolute zero for the White Sox.
As a Sox fan, painful.
Preller still did these:
Trea Turner for Wil Myers
Yasmani Grandal for Matt Kemp
Matt Fried and Mallex Smith for Justin Upton
Logan Allen, Franmil Reyes and Victor Nova for Taylor Trammell
1. Max* Fried
2. You forget Luis Urias and Eric Lauer for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies.
Urias is terrible.
You are terrible.
hey now, brewer fans are hoping he becomes solid
Padres fans are hoping he tanks so hard that they DFA him and then we claim him back.
1. oops
2. that trade happened 5 minutes ago, only idiots would judge a trade that quickly
The Trammell trade happened 7 minutes ago
Urias is on the IL and will more than likely hit another robust .220 for his lifetime average, give it up already. I’ll take Davies anyday over Lauer.
But then who cares no baseball for 2020 anyways, get Strat O Matic and play some real baseball.
@nowheretogobutup not very smart are you?
Players come off the IL all the time. Otherwise there would be no baseball. And Luis Urias is going to be a MLB OBP leader sooner than later. And when he does you will be hearing from me.
PS: Still waiting for your proof that Luis Urias has “negativity”
What will happen first: Matt Holliday touching home plate or nowheretogobutup providing proof of Luis Urias having “negativity?”
I’ve got my money on Matt Holliday.
Fried is a #3 at best and Mallex Smith has had 1 good season.
Franmil Reyes is all power no obp ability bat who was better suited for DH.
Preller also received Jose Castillo and Gerardo Reyes in the Myers Turner swap. Those two turn out to be high end relief options (Castillo had a good showing in 2018) Preller could eventually trade them for more assets.
Funny how you leave out trades like
Rodney for Paddack
Solarte for Olivares
Cashner for Naylor
Norris for Avila
“Fried is a #3 at best and Mallex Smith has had 1 good season.”
You keep saying this. In 2020, Fried would be either the Padres’ #1 or #2 depending on who you like better out of him and Paddack. Then Smith could be their CF now that Freddy and Margot are gone.
“Franmil Reyes is all power no obp ability bat who was better suited for DH.”
I’ll give you the DH remark but the dude had a .340 OBP in 2018. That’s solid.
“Preller also received Jose Castillo and Gerardo Reyes in the Myers Turner swap.”
A couple of relievers do nothing to make up for losing Trea Turner. Especially when one can’t stay healthy and the other just sucks.
Then the other 4 trades you mention, Olivares and Avila are meh. Rodney and Paddack he took advantage of an incompetent Marlins front office.
Fried would be Padres #1 or #2….
Wrong. He’d be their #3 at best or #4 behind Paddack and Lamet. Or behind Paddack Lamet and Richard depending on Richard health and performance. He’d be pushed back to ##4 or #5 when Gore and Patino came up anyhow. He’d also be battling Morejon and Weathers for that final spot.
Reyes had an obp of .340 in 2018…
He took 285 at bats in 2018. In 2019 in 354 at bats with the Padres he had an obp of .314 (not good) and with the Indians he had an obp of .304 (even worse) in 185 at bats. All told he had an obp of .310 in 2019. But man 2018 in limited action he was good.
The relievers do nothing…..
Who knows what preller will do with Castillo and/or Reyes. As it stands Padres have a glut of relief options. If preller decides to trade Castillo Reyes or both in the coming years that alters the Wil Myers trade depending what he gets back.
If Reyes or Castillo establish themselves as premier set up options and preller nets say an Edwin Diaz package for one then the trade becomes Myers plus whatever he picks up for them. Or he could keep them and they flame out or keeps them and they’re productive for the Padres. Point is they’re part of the package and that could alter things down the line.
Also forgot to mention Strahm he swiped from the royals who’s established himself as a great relief lefty in his own right, swiped Pomeranz from the A’s for Alonso and netted Espinoza (elite prospect at the time but injuries derailed his career unfortunately),
But yeah Olivares who’s ranked in the top 20 in their deep farm system is meh (fact he got anything useful for solarte is remarkable). And Avila looked like a decent find before TJS (again fact he for anything useful for Derek Norris who was a release candidate at that point is remarkable).
Lamet? Oh god I hope you aren’t counting on that guy. He has a career 4.37 ERA and has never had an ERA below 4 in a season. That’s back-end starter territory. Strikeouts don’t matter much when you can’t limit the long-ball. And then the other guys you named aren’t even close to Max Fried.
Franmil Reyes can walk and hit for power. Although he probably does belong in the AL where he can DH.
On Castillo and Reyes, he won’t be able to do anything with them unless Castillo miraculously avoids Tommy John surgery and Reyes stops sucking. And even in the best case scenario, they still cost Trea Turner.
The other trades you mentioned were all meh for meh trades. And he got way less for Norris than he gave up to get him in the first place.
Lamet has never had an ERA below 4 in a season? He has 1 friggin season! He has a total of 187 innings in his career. Fried pitched 165 last year. Shall we compare?
Lamet career. Fried 2019
4.37 ERA. 4.02 ERA
187.1 innings. 165.2 innings
224 K. 173 K
1.25 WHIP. 1.33 WHIP
Pretty damn close down the line, except strikeouts where Lamet absolutely buries Fried. But go ahead and believe what you want. I know you are desperate to prove that Preller is Satan MikeEmbletonSmellsBad, but you are just wrong here.
@Javia I’m sorry Mrs. Preller but strikeouts just don’t matter when you can’t stop giving up home runs like Lamet.
They both have some possible untapped potential but to just assume it is a given that Lamet will be better than Fried going forward like our mutual friend All American Johnsonville Dogs did is simply asinine.
And I don’t need to prove that your son is Satan. He does that for me.
Oh no! A b**ch called me a woman. What should I do? I am so hurt. Seriously, are you in kindergarten?
They are both kids at this point. Nobody knows who will have the better career. I prefer Lamet, you prefer Fried. Fine. But nobody can take you seriously when you just blindly and vehemently hate everything Padre. You have a grudge. We get it. Now can we actually talk baseball? Or are you going to go climb back into your dungeon in your mother’s basement to throw darts at your AJ Preller dart board?
Strikeouts and the long ball go together like steak and eggs. Strikeout pitchers don’t always locate the ball exactly where they want it, and the result is usually a hard hit ball somewhere.
I will take Lamet
@Javia I’m willing to bet I’m at least twice as old as you, if not even older!
I’ve been talking baseball this whole time sonny. You are the one resorting to ad hominems.
Not a grudge, just realistic. A. J. Preller has been a disaster in every sense of the word as a GM.
@VegasSDfan oh, of course you would
He gave up Jesse Hahn and RJ Alvarez for Derek Norris. Both of whom have amounted to nothing. Padres got more out of Norris and Avila than any team has out of Hahn or Alvarez lmao. Hahn has been destroyed last 3 years and RJ Alvarez hasnt pitched in the majors since 2015 when he also was destroyed.
Fried’s first full season as a starter in 2019 he had an era over 4…. His other two seasons were as a swingman barely pitching. 9 games in 2017 and 14 games in 2018.
Reyes walked 8.6% of his at bats and k’d at 28.5% of his at bats in 2019. In 2018 similar 8.4% walk and 28.1% strike outs. Sure he can get on base. Which is why his walk rate is low. Gotcha.
Yeah Strahm is meh. Which is why in 2018 when he was primarily a reliever he posted 61 innings of 2.05 era, struck out 10 per 9 and walked 3 per 9. But yeah high end production form a lefty out the pen like that is meh lmao. And when he shifted back to the pen in 2019 he continued to be productive as a pen piece.
I’d quit embarrassing yourself man. It’s just getting sad at this point.
In 2019 as a reliever Strahm posted a 3.27 era in 33 innings and still posted a 10 k/9.
Yeah “meh” lmao.
Mrs. Preller. I don’t need to prove your son is Satan.=ad hominem. You probably shouldn’t use words when you don’t know what they mean.
Ad hominem – (of an argument or reaction) directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining.
I fail to see how calling your son Satan meets the definition specified above Mrs. Preller. Especially when I and many others have given plenty of reasons as to why we do not think he is a good GM.
Jesse Hahn and RJ Alvarez were premium pieces when they were traded for Derek Norris. Pedro Avila was not. Norris’ value dropped like a rock during his 2 years as a Padre. Which wasn’t surprising considering Preller bought kinda high on him.
Lamet has never had an ERA below 4.00 in a season.
.340 OBP in 2018. Reyes has shown an ability to get on base.
Strahm wasn’t actually who I was referring to as “meh.” That trade would be one of the few good ones. Real shame I can name at least 5 bad Preller moves for every good one you name.
“I’d quit embarrassing yourself man. It’s just getting sad at this point.”
I’d say the same to you.
First you define it and then you go right ahead and do it again. Mrs. Preller-that is an attack against me, a person, rather than the position I am maintaining. I cannot explain it any slower and I know that you will try to find a way to pass your comments off as something other than a personal attack.
Personal attacks are the last refuge of those who have lost an argument. If you cannot win, just call the opponent Mrs. Preller, right Mike? I claim the victory. No need to bother with replying. You are not listening, and therefore I will not longer listen to you.
“Personal attacks are the last refuge of those who have lost an argument.”
“Oh no! A b**ch called me a woman.”
“Seriously, are you in kindergarten?”
“Or are you going to go climb back into your dungeon in your mother’s basement”
You were saying…?
“No need to bother with replying.”
It’s game over when the other player bows out, ya schmuck.
@johnsonville Fried has stud written all over him. Just wait.
If you’re getting excited about these moves, no wonder your fan base hasn’t called for this dudes head yet. Should’ve been fired after he tried to trade injured players, twice!!
“The other trades you mentioned were all meh for meh trades.”
Funny I mentioned Strahm in those trades.
Keep back peddling. You’ve been proven wrong by multiple people on this thread and others. It’s sad you won’t even admit to yourself how wrong you are.
If you’re needing validation from people on the internet to give you attention or self worth I’d see a therapist instead of continuing to argue over a point you’re losing.
“Keep back peddling.”
Backpedaling* is your game skippy.
“You’ve been proven wrong by multiple people on this thread and others.”
Who you trying to convince?
“It’s sad you won’t even admit to yourself how wrong you are.”
Difference is I have nothing to admit unlike you.
“If you’re needing validation from people on the internet to give you attention or self worth I’d see a therapist…”
Which is exactly what you’re doing.
“… instead of continuing to argue over a point you’re losing.”
Keep telling yourself that kiddo.
Again. For every good Preller move you can name, I can name five bad ones.
AJ Preller just proved anyone off the street can make 100 trades in 3 years and have a couple of them pan out. He’s a worthless GM, the Padres will never win a title with him.
I left out those other trades because sycophants talk about them as if they brought home a title.
You mean Mallex “got dunked on by Austin Hedges” Smith?
And more
Trea Turner was traded from the Rays in a three team trade look it up
Actually he was traded from the Padres in a 3-team trade. He was never a member of the Tampa Bay Rays organization.
Anything else you care to be wrong about today?
He owned up to it and made a lot of better moves since then.
And then Preller traded Tatis’ age 26 season for “goodwill” and “clubhouse harmony” or whatever.
UGH!
Ed Farmer died!
rip
What a dumb trade
5 years from now, if Tatis becomes the player analysts believe he can be, then it could be considered a bad trade. But Tatis hasn’t even played an entire year due to being injured. For all we know he could be injury prone. Time will tell.
The White Sox would have been better off releasing Tatis and never trading for James Shields.
Wrong. In that half a season Tatis has played, he was more valuable than Shields was over 3.5 years with Chicago. It was the most boneheaded traded in history.
If you are a White Sox fan you need to step away from the keyboard on this one. You aren’t going to add anything to the convo if you try and clutch at straws to pathetically defend it.
“It was the most boneheaded traded in history.”
Streeeeeeeeeeetch.
Tatis wasn’t even highly thought of as an International prospect when he signed, and they traded him before he ever played a game. It does look absolutely horrible in hindsight, obviously.
I dunno. Steve Carlton for Rick Wise wasn’t exactly a stroke of genius either.
The problem with the trade has NOTHING to do with Tatis. It has everything to do with James Shields. Shields was acquired to be that last piece to the rotation and help the Sox make the playoffs and with his previous pedigree, make a run. He gave up something like 20 runs in his first three starts over 7 or 8 innings and was, conservatively, one of the worst three-five pitchers in baseball over the next two and a half years. The Sox could have traded a AA non starter and it would have been a bad trade. It just didn’t work out. Leave it at that.
The blame lies entirely on whoever in Chicago thought James Shields was worth betting on when it clearly looked like he lost his stuff in SD, with his FIP jumping by a run over his last year and a half with SD. How can a pitcher struggle in SD?
That White Sox employee who convinced the GM/owner to go “there’s nothing wrong here, lets target him” needs to be fired.
The smart money is on KW. This trade fits his usual MO.
Not really.
KW never made trades for aging starting pitchers, or, for the most part, any players who were clearly in decline, especially ones who were under contract for multiple years, unless they literally Hall of Famers.
You know who does love regressing aging players, like LaRoche, Keppinger, John Jay, Ervin Santana, and evening Edwin Encarnacion? Rick Hahn.
Edwin Encarnacion just had his best year since 2016. You’re assuming he’s going to regress to fit your narrative, but he hasn’t yet.
The other guys were nothing more than roster fillers. You’re acting like he expected them to be game changers.
David Wells says hi.
Just for fun, have a look back at what MLBTR’s article on 6June2016 said at the time.
First, they spent a whole paragraph talking about Johnson with only one sentence about Tatis Jr. That sentence was “Tatis, meanwhile, is a quality prospect in Longenhagen’s evaluation, though there are some limits to his ceiling and he remains a long ways from the majors.”
And in the poll of readers, 35% said it was a win-win and 31% said the Sox won the deal. Only 20% said the Pads won the deal. Hindsight is indeed 20:20!
The thing that gets lost in this trade is that it would have been a bust even if Tatis hadn’t developed, and was questionable from day one.
Shields was already in rapid decline when Hahn made the decision to give two prospects for him. He also had a large contract that was on book for two more years.
He was literally the worst pitcher the season they were counting on him, and was not good either of the next two seasons.
It doesn’t matter if no one knew about Tatis. The trade was a bust the moment it was made, and only made worse by Tatis.
And while he was unknown, it was an odd decision to trade a player before you even saw what he was in the minors. They literally didn’t know what they had before packaging him in a nonsense trade.
MLBTR: are you going to make posts for when MLB personnel get covid?
A’s minor league manager Webster Garrison is currently fighting for his life but is looking looking up as of 3 hours ago https://www.si.com/mlb/athletics/news/as-get-good-news-on-webster-garrison-in-battle-with-coronavirus
No trade will ever rival the epic fail of the NFL’s Herschel Walker trade. Ever.
to be fair, dont see how its as bad in foresight as say the Miller trade or the Archer trade. Tatis was still fairly far down the minors rankings at the time. correct me if im wrong, but i don’t even know if he started the season on the ChiSox top 30 prospects by pipeline.
At least Miller and Archer had trade value at the time. Shields didn’t.
No need to make us White Sox fans think of that right now please.
Trading players who have not even played a pro game should never happen again after this and the Yordan Alvarez deals. Yes they are all lottery tickets but you aren’t duing your due diligence if you move these guys in deals for non impact players like Shields and Josh Fields.
IMO the Alvarez trade was even more stupid and i have doubts about his continued production. Shields was at least solid player recently when traded. Fields was never any good and might have nevet made the Majors if not for being exposed to the Astros during their years of desperation.
You never know how prospects will turn out….most will generally be busts….u think the Tigers would have traded Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander if they knew Smoltz would be a stud starter/closer
I mean it’s a crap shoot so it’s basically trading from depth if u have a good SS u trade your SS depth to get pitching etc
I bet every team has regrettable trades that they wish they could undo….after all GMs are human after all and make mistakes
look up in the comments section. Preller has made a lot of bad moves.
When Hahn made this deal he expected no less than 30 starts, 25 of which would be 4 runs or less, 20 of which would be 3 runs or less, 15 of which would be 2 or less. He expected Shields to produce enough dominant starts in the season to both rally the crowd & the team toward a strong post season drive.
None of that happened! That makes it one of the worst CWS trades ever!
Simply put, Shields was worse than Edwin Jackson!
It doesn’t matter whether Anderson blocks Tatis. If the CWS doesn’t do this deal Hahn
still has Tatis trade value to work with.
Where the club is now, it’s water under the bridge. If America is able to flatten the curve
on the spread of the virus, we are likely to see a 2020 season of mostly double headers of 7in games. With 8 starters (LG, DK, GG, Cease, Lopez, Rodon, Kopech, & Dunning) no team is better stocked for these circumstances. Double headers are very hard to win
under normal conditions & a lot of teams are going to have a hard time just maintaining fresh arms. If you recall times when Shields just got lit up, that’s likely to happen a lot
this season with other teams.
The trade was desperation. They were in 1st right up to June then fell to 3rd and 4th immediately after the trade. Shields contract was viewed as bad from the moment it was announced from what I remember. So Sox never should have made a trade for Shields sure, does that preclude them from trading Tatis? Not sure. Any 3rd SP would have gotten Tatis probably.
absolute fleece from San Diego. A superior scouting team of the Padres was able to identify talent where the Sox team could not. And you pay for such oversights dearly.
“Superior scouting team” that traded Trea Turner and traded Yasmani Grandal for Matt Kemp.
Grandal is garbage. He has a year or two left before he becomes a backup.
Even if you believe that (which is thoroughly ridiculous, but hey) he was still pre-arb so the simple solution was to non-tender him. They didn’t have to trade for Matt Kemp just to get rid of him.
Garbage take. At worst, Grandal is a top 5 catcher in the league right now.
To be fair to Preller, kemp immediately fell off a cliff when he went there. It’s not like it was really expected to end off so bad. It’s kind of like the Tulowitzki trade. It made sense at the time, the player just turned to trash for no reason. It’s hard to predict stuff like that. It also happens to every team in some capacity.
It was pure luck.
Meh. Moncada, Gio, TA, Robert, Eloy, Dylan, Lopez, Dunning, Kopech. We good.
The worst part is the White Sox claimed to be “All in” after that trade, then proceeded to lose more games than teams that were actively tanking.
I just find it ironic that the White Sox don’t have a very long list of hitters they have signed/drafted and successfully developed and they trade away the one guy that probably improves their reputation in that regard. I doubt Rick Hahn ever trades an amateur player again without personally getting a look at him haha. Hats off to SD’s front office though, to get any salary relief for Shields and hit the lotto with Tatis developing into a beast, its one of those trades that even San Diego probably wasn’t projecting this best case scenario.
Don’t forget Semien and several other mlb contributors for a terrible year of Jeff Samrdzija! Of course this was around the same time as our Donaldson trade, so hit or miss.
I do like what the White Sox have been up to lately, all those extensions matched with mid range veteran signings look very promising. With Cleveland on their way down and the Royals/Tigers long term tanking now is a great time to build for multiple years of playoff competitiveness.
And DJ Lemahieu says hi!
I have a slightly different stance on this.yeah the trade turned out bad especially since shields did nothing but at this point tatis hadn’t played a single pro game. Tatis was considered a good international prospect but he wasn’t a very top prospect, mlb.com had him ranked the 30th international prospect of his class. Those guys are traded as “lotto tickets” all the time and most of them never become anything
See the list here, 25 was soto but 26th to 29th nobody ever heard of
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=int
Yeah sometimes such a guy becomes something but very few guys in the industry saw tatis improving so quickly in his first season, apparently all of his tools suddenly took a big step forward according to eric longenhagen.
I would rank this trade more as bad luck than as a mistake because of this because tatis simply hit like his 95th percentile outcome.
The title for this article is garbage based on tatis status when this trade happened. I get shields was declining but he looked at least like a workhorse n decent era guy. No one coulda predicted tatis to turn into what he has at 17. But it’s got a lot of attention so touché
What if tatis jr has character issues? Or a drug problem? Maybe it’s wrong to speculate here but that would make some sense
He doesn’t, good try though. He has shown to be happy, giving, a team player, and has shown superstar type of athleticism.
Tatis is beyond good, he is a great player.
Even if gratis retires now the padres still won the trade, shields produced negative war while tatis produced 3.6 war.
The White Sox still have Elijah Tatis in their farm system. He is reportedly very close to his older brother in terms of ability.
Yay! 18 years old.
Maybe after the Sox win 5 Worlds Series he will be able to make the team!
I don’t think they will want a 150 year old player. But who knows with medical technology.
Touche. Hey, I’d take 5 in 150 years. Beats 1 every 108.
Willie—let’s be politically correct here—the Sox have won exactly one in the last 102 years—-they still have six chances to stay under 1 of every 108.
The signing of James Shields ranks right up there with the Hosmer and Myers signings. It may have been the worse. Trading him was the obvious thing to do. Getting Tatis for him was pure luck. No brain work required. It was a shot in the dark that so far has worked out.
Oh no! A b**ch called me a woman. What should I do? I am so hurt. Seriously, are you in kindergarten?
They are both kids at this point. Nobody knows who will have the better career. I prefer Lamet, you prefer Fried. Fine. But nobody can take you seriously when you just blindly and vehemently hate everything Padre. You have a grudge. We get it. Now can we actually talk baseball? Or are you going to go climb back into your dungeon in your mother’s basement to throw darts at your AJ Preller dart board?
Nice double post
How did the Padres trade Rizzo….
One of the shadiest trades of all time… Hoyer trades Adrian Gonzalez (in his prime) to Theo Epstein for Rizzo as the centerpiece, Rizzo is given 100 AB, Hoyer leaves to join Epstein in Chicago, and Byrnes immediately trades Rizzo for Cashner straight up….
What was shady about it? Hoyer believed in Rizzo and took advantage of an incompetent GM in Josh Byrnes, not unlike Mike Rizzo and David Stearns did with Preller when they got Trea Turner and Luis Urias. There was nothing stopping Josh Byrnes from just going with the ‘Consuela from Family Guy’ technique.
No… no… He stay…
They had two big time first base prospects in Rizzo and Yonder Alonso. Alonso was actually considered the superior prospect at the time. And Cashner was a very good prospect as well. Simple answer, they had a choice and their choice proved incorrect. But at the time, it was the prudent thing to do in the minds of most people.
Not quite true.
There’s always variation among the different evaluators, but in 2012, the first year after the swaps, Rizzo was usually the top 1b prospect. That was after his struggles in San Diego and after Alonso had a really good 40+ major league games in Cincy, and it still wasn’t enough to move the latter ahead.
Most of the Padre fans I know, who are more a sabremetric bunch, thought it was a bad, knee-jerk trade at the time. It was selling low and buying high, since Alonso showed more offense in the majors than he did in the minors, and that’s rarely a good idea.
Adding Cashner didn’t bump it positive, because his velocity had never consistently translated into results.
I’m sure there were people who thought it was a good trade. Just saying, it was far from a universal or even a wide-spread opinion. Of all three players, Rizzo had by far the best chance to be elite, and their floors were comparable. You don’t trade an A for two Cs.
This headline seems intentionally provocative.
No post or TV show EVER mentions the worst/best trade ever: Tigers get Norm Cash (.271, 377 HR, >1000 RBI) for Steve Demeter (.087, 1 RBI).
Worst is Cubs trading Eloy and Cease for Q!!!
Quintana is a serviceable starter and Eloy had a decent, but not great, rookie year. Cease has done next to nothing so far.
Right now, I’d argue that the Cubs have gotten more value in that deal. It may change in the future, very likely will change, but no one knows for sure.
Either way, there is no chance that this is one of the worst deals ever.
Quintana has been a sub-2 WAR pitcher for the Cubs each of the last 2 years, and the team hasn’t done anything since he has been there. He has been mediocre at best.
IF Eloy turns into a perennial all-star and MVP candidate with the bat (very possible) and Cease turns into a frontline starter (also very possible), this is easily one of the worst deals ever. Obviously a lot has to go right for both of these guys to reach their ceilings, but the talent is there to make this look significantly worse for the Cubs (and it already looks bad).
He has been right at 2 WAR, which is an average starter. I don’t think you understand what WAR stands for. 1.8 and 1.4 are not bad years. They are not Cy Young years by any means, but they are about average, maybe slightly below average, major league seasons.
BTW, that WAR that you think is so bad for Quintana in 2019, is the EXACT same WAR that Eloy put up 1.4. Just saying.
And you also think a guy that had a 5.79 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP is not only suddenly going to morph into a frontline starter, but it is “very possible” that he will. Not buying it.
Yes, IF Eloy suddenly turns into a tropical version of Mike Trout and Cease becomes Greg Maddux on a bad day, then it will look much better for the ChiSox. But for now they have gotten a grand total of 1.3 WAR out of the two combined, while Quintana has provided 4.5 WAR in 2.5 seasons. I stand by my statement that the Cubs have gotten more value thus far.
I know exactly what WAR stands for, and it’s telling you that Quintana has been below average since joining the Cubs. They were expecting a high end #2, and he has pitched like a #4. That’s not a good thing.
“1.8 and 1.4 are not bad years. They are not Cy Young years by any means, but they are about average, maybe slightly below average, major league seasons.”
Those are both below average seasons. They paid for a 4+ WAR pitcher – and that’s 4 per year, not 4 per 2.5 years. Again, not good and easily replaceable, especially with their budget.
“BTW, that WAR that you think is so bad for Quintana in 2019, is the EXACT same WAR that Eloy put up 1.4. Just saying.”
BTW, you’re trying to compare a 30 year old in his 8th year to a 22 year old rookie that put up a 117 OPS+ in 122 games (and 1.5 WAR, for the record). They are pretty clearly trending in opposite directions.
“And you also think a guy that had a 5.79 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP is not only suddenly going to morph into a frontline starter, but it is “very possible” that he will. Not buying it.”
You don’t seem to understand the difference between “possible” and “likely.” If I said very likely, you’d have a much better argument. Again, we’re talking about a rookie – another one with elite talent. If you want to assume he’s nothing more than a 1.5 WHIP 5+ ERA pitcher, that’s up to you. You probably said the same about Giolito and Moncada 2 years ago. You’ll probably end up looking like an idiot, again, but that’s your choice.
“I stand by my statement that the Cubs have gotten more value thus far.”
And I’ll stand by my statement that this is a bad trade for the Cubs that is only going to get worse if they don’t win a WS with Quintana – one that could easily turn into one of their worst deals ever, despite you thinking it has “no chance” of doing so.
They have gotten more major league production thus far, not more value; there’s a big difference.
If the Rays traded Wander Franco for Kelvin Herrera tomorrow and Herrera put up another 0.4 WAR season while Franco was stuck in the minors, would you argue the Rays received more value? I’d bet not.
My Orioles traded Curt Shilling, Steve Finley and Pete Harnisch three All Stars at one point for Glenn Davis, lol..
How was Randy Johnson involved in a six for one trade and he wasn’t the 1??!!
That’s easy. He wasn’t. No trade like that ever happened.
These deals are why low end, very young prospects are referred to as lotto tickets and not ‘organization filler’
Ruben Amaro accidentally traded future 30-HR hitter Domingo Santana by putting his name on a PTBNL list on accident.
Phillies also threw in Jonathan Villar in a deal with the Astros. Could be wrong, but he might be the only guy in that trade still playing in the majors.
Worst trade ever was Boston giving up Jeff Bagwell for two months of Larry Andersen (Astros).
Cubs trading Lou Brock to Cardinals for Ernie Broglio ranks up there, too.
And as a Phillies fan, the Larry Bowa and Ryne Sandberg to the Cubs for Ivan DeJesus (SS) might have been the worst trade in Phillies history..
It was a bad trade at the time, but Tatis had nothing to do with what made it bad back then. He was a lottery ticket; sometimes lottery tickets win. What made the trade bad at the time was the White Sox fooled themselves into thinking they had a competitive roster. They were really just playing above their heads. Also, they thought James Shields was the answer. He was durable, but he fell off a cliff in Chicago (after already going downhill in SD). The fact that Tatis looks to be at least a solid player makes it look far worse in retrospect, but honestly, Cubs trading Torres for a half-year rental of Chapman seemed more indefensible at the time.
Shields down fall in San Diego was giving up the homerun to Colon
Owner ripped him a new one publicly
Where did all these PADRES lovers come from? Based on the comments in this thread the PADRES are going to the WS and Preller is going to the HOF. Another Jackass just traded for Pham who has a bad elbow and had not played OF when they stopped. You are what your record sez……”boycott Petco….it’s working”. Down with Brown. I am not spending a $ until they win….or clean house. They should clean house and turn it over to Bochy.
Look, you have trades like this blow up all the time. I’m at peace with trading Tatis away, it happens when you go for it. My problem with that deal was always that Shields was not the answer – he was a flyball pitcher who was not a good fit for Comiskey (still call it that) … so it wasn’t going to work from the get-go. If Tatis went for a more efficient ground ball pitcher then I’d be more at peace with it … Shields just seemed unnecessary at the time to acquire.
Here’s the kicker. Tatis was an add in.
It’s easy to question trades. In hindsight, they may look exceptionally stupid. Take the A’s trading Cespedes or Donaldson. Both trades looked exceptionally stupid, but a hardcore A’s fan won’t let you say something like that.
Trading Cespedes looked stupid at the time. You don’t trade a guy like that in the middle of a playoff push.
It was a bad trade becuase Shields didnt pan out. But Tatis Jr. Is a strikeout machine. 110 ks last year in MLB. 300 ks in minors. He is not as fabulous as everyone thinks until he can be a patient hitter with a good eye.
I don’t understand why people are so hung up on this trade. Nobody knew who this guy was prior to the trade. He’s athletic, but flips around like a fish at SS. You won’t last long in the bigs dolphin diving for ground balls aa the time, hence the injuries. Tatis still has a lot to prove.
*all the time.
I think the trade looks worse since Shields was so terrible for the White Sox. Had he been decent and they made the playoffs most people would accept the cost.
Exactly–bbatardo—the trade from a Sox perspective has nothing to do with how Tatis pans out. It has everything to do with Shields being one of the worst three (being kind) pitchers in baseball after he came to Chicago.
This is being equivalent to Cubs fans saying the trade of Torres for Chapman was worth it as they won the World Series that season. If Shields would have been average (although he was brought in to be one of those last pieces) nobody would care.
This is about Shields, not Tatis.
Tatis in the headlines makes people click on it—if the headline was “How Did the White Sox Trade for James Shields?!” 90% of the readers would say—“I forgot he pitched for the Sox.”
It was probably the worst trade for the White Sox since they sent Sosa across town. They probably thought they had the depth to move Tatiana since they had Anderson to play SS
*Tatis (autocorrect)
Turned into quite a terrible trade
Total trainwreck
If they going to be hard on the White Sox trading Tatis Jr, I hope they’re equally as hard on the Cubs trading Jimenez and Cease.
More articles like this please
More 3 week old articles? Just go into the archives, you can find plenty.
This article is brand-spankin’ new. The video is three weeks old.
“If teams had an inkling of what Tatis Jr. would become, he would have signed for ten times as much money.”
Yeah, I’ll take the over…
That international class had some major talent in it.
Boy, we’re just flogging this dead horse, aren’t we?
Why did the Sox trade Tatis? Because he was a nobody who was a throw-in in the Shields trade at the time. The Pads hit MLB’s equivalent of Powerball when he progressed the way he did after the trade.
The 3 questions that should be asked is:
1) Why would the Sox even want to trade for Shields in the first place?
Fair question. I still can’t come up with a good explanation for that one.
2) Would the Sox have went into a full rebuild had they kept Tatis, knowing what he would become?
I don’t think so, I think it would’ve led to another decade of mediocrity, but we’ll never know. Personally I think the fallout from the Shields/Tatis trade is what led to the rebuild.
3) With the Sox minor league development being one of the worst in MLB for years/decades, would Tatis have developed in the Sox system like he did in the Pads system?
Maybe he had the talent to overcome this obstacle, but once again, we’ll never know. It makes you wonder how many potential stars did the Sox minor league system ruin.
It will take 5 years (or more) to know how much this trade actually hurt the Sox. It did hurt them, but if the Sox win 1 (or more) WS from this rebuild, then it’s not that big of a deal. But if the Sox win 0, and especially if they don’t even sniff the WS in the next 10 years, then this trade will haunt the Sox like the Babe Ruth trade did to Boston for decades. This also assumes Tatis’ career isn’t derailed by injuries, which would make this argument moot.
I will say, this is a well written article, despite the fact we’re still beating this dead horse. I get it, MLB news is painfully slow right now, and it will be for the next few weeks (at least).
Padres’ minor league development is just as bad if not worse.
I want to know which MLBTR editor hates the White Sox so much that he keeps allowing posts about this trade. Every GM makes good and bad trades. Every team. Why do y’all keep posting about this one?
Because it is one of the worst trade made in decades
Maybe but you can say that about a lot of trades in hindsight. What about the John Smoltz trade? How about Sammy Sosa traded to the Cubs?
Those guys haven’t been in the league in a decade. Tatis will be a star for the next 20 years. So a little more relavant today. The palehose gave away a winning Powerball ticket. That’s what makes it interesting. It’s just a game with grown men wearing tight pants catching a ball. Don’t get butt hurt about it
A star for the next 20 years? That’d be impressive. I’d say there’s a better chance he breaks down within 3 years unless he starts partaking in the Tom Brady lifestyle.
Or the kid can flame out now. You never know. He has played half a season. That’s what I don’t get. Y’all are making a big deal out of half a season.
File this trade under “Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi”.
Dude has played 1/2 a season file your brain
Very good content & concept for an article. I would like to see a little more about his instant turn-around into an elite prospect. What’s a mystery to me is how he suddenly became one of the top prospects in the game in about a year. How did that happen so quickly? You mention the 2 inches of height added (whoa!), but I’ve gotta imagine some credit goes to SD minor league coaches too, right?
You have to remember this was an era where the White Sox were very mediocre but had a front office that thought they could buy or trade their way out of it. They were wrong of course. They made so many FO mistakes that would become apparent at around the All-Star break every year. This was just another one of those many many many mistakes. Who knows what they would be now if instead of trading prospects, they traded for prospects. Took them wayyyyyy too long to figure this out.
Tatis was nothing more than a lottery ticket that paid out. You see A ball players included in trades all the time and are never heard from again, This was literally luck and there’s no reason any White Sox fan should feel poorly about this trade based upon this inclusion.
The White Sox had a young blue chip prospect who also can play short or third or probably second and OF as well. They had him in the organization and let him get away for basically a washed up starter.
Of course the White Sox fans feel bad about letting him get away. Why would they not. Bad trades happen but to say oh its luck so it does not matter is absurd.
Tatis and Paddack are the SOLE reason Preller still has a job.
Or the kid can flame out now. You never know. He has played half a season. That’s what I don’t get. Y’all are making a big deal out of half a season.
He’s played a 1/2 a season made 18 errors hit like a superstar but isn’t one yet of course Padre fan had him in HOF that’s their mo overdoing players accomplishments
Not one person posting here knew Tatis was going to even be a backup SS…..I also think Padres are crazy handing out a contract like they did for Tatis….Lets predict how that contract plays out in 5 years or 7 years…I like Tatis But he has payed 150 games in MLB…guess Jaun Soto should be asking for 15 years 400 million…things are way out of wack..
Tatis signing unwise? Not so sure of that. Salaries still rising. Where will they be when FTJ is in his prime and making just 25 mil?
Fernando gives every skinny kid with skills hope. Keep playing, young men. Strength is coming with the right diet and regimen.