The Pirates announced Wednesday that right-hander Chris Archer underwent surgery yesterday to relieve symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome. The surprising, out-of-the-blue announcement rules Archer out for any games that are played in 2020. He’s expected to be ready for full competition in 2021, per the team’s press release, although his future with the club is far from certain at this point. The Pirates hold an $11MM club option ($250K buyout) over Archer for the 2021 season. The decision to undergo surgery came after “consulting with several leading vascular and orthopedic surgeons in recent weeks,” according to the Pirates.
The track record of pitchers coming back from TOS surgery, which typically involves the removal (or partial removal) of a rib in order to alleviate pressure on nerves in the shoulder/armpit area, is rather poor overall. Matt Harvey, Tyler Thornburg, Tyson Ross, Nate Karns, Matt Harrison, Carter Capps, Andrew Triggs and Kyle Zimmer are among the players to have undergone the surgery in recent years. None of that bunch has found much success upon returning. That said, recently retired righty Chris Young attributed TOS surgery to salvaging his career, and we’ve seen other success stories in Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Clayton Richard. It’s not an insurmountable hill to climb, but a TOS procedure is one of the more ominous arm operations a pitcher can undergo.
The revelation of a TOS diagnosis goes a long way toward explaining some of Archer’s recent struggles. From 2013-17, the righty pitched to a 3.60 ERA (3.45 FIP) with 9.7 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in a hitter-friendly American League East division. His numbers dipped a bit in 2018 but were generally serviceable. In 2019, however, Archer was lit up for a 5.19 ERA (5.02 FIP) with career-worst marks in BB/9 (4.1) and HR/9 (1.9). In retrospect, Archer’s 2019 season did end about a month early due to shoulder discomfort, and he was slowed by neck pain this spring prior to the league shutdown. However, while those symptoms are present in most TOS cases, most instances of neck/shoulder discomfort for pitchers don’t result in a TOS diagnosis.
Rather, much of the reason for Archer’s struggles in Pittsburgh were previously believed to have been due to the organization’s push to use a two-seamer/sinker that simply wasn’t an effective pitch for the right-hander. Archer had scrapped the two-seamer years prior, but the since-dismissed Pirates regime had a pitching philosophy that focused on incorporating sinkers into a pitcher’s repertoire. Archer finally jettisoned the pitch this past June and saw his strikeout and walk percentages immediately trend in positive directions, even though he continued to be unusually homer-prone (an issue that plagued many pitchers in last year’s juiced-ball season). The significant K-BB% gain was one of several reasons I profiled Archer as a rebound candidate back in March, but it’s now clear that there were more concerning causes for his struggles.
The generally poor track record of pitchers returning from TOS surgery presents the perennially low-spending Pirates with a particularly difficult decision this offseason. With teams losing enormous revenue amid the pandemic shutdown, it’s widely expected that free agents and arbitration-eligible players will feel the effects of those losses. Many in the game expect a depressed free-agent market and a spike in the number of non-tendered players. Archer’s club option is a net $10.75MM decision for the Pirates — a figure that represents nearly 18 percent of their would-be $60.7MM payroll in 2020. On the surface, it’s immensely hard to see owner Bob Nutting green-lighting such a commitment.
At the same time, the Pirates gave up Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and prospect Shane Baz to acquire Archer in a trade that now looks to be among the most regrettable swaps in franchise history. It’d be understandable if the club sought one final bite at the apple, so to speak, in hopes of a rebound that could help salvage some value from that deal, be it in the form of a quality performance from Archer or a summer 2021 trade that recouped some prospect capital.
Ownership and the new front-office regime, headed by GM Ben Cherington, will have several months to decide, but it’s certainly plausible that Archer has pitched his final game as a Pirate.
This deal is getting worse all the time (c)
Would you get going, you PIRATE
“But I don’t wanna be a Pirate!”
They traded him to Pittsburgh … Pittsburgh…
A vast yeee matey!
what a terrible, terrible trade
what a terrible, terrible comment
but that trade tho
Meadows… Glasnow…
Baz …
how is it a terrible comment? that trade was one of the worst ever and is only getting worse
the gift that keeps on giving
Wait until Baz starts in Majors and lights it up. It may go down as a total fleece by Tampa GM.
What a terrible, terrible smelling user name.
It’s way better than “IKnowMoreBaseball.”
Can now officially be labeled the worst trade in Pirates history.
I personally think it could’ve been labeled that before the injury to archer.
If Meadows and Glasnow become superstars and Baz turns to be what he looks like, this will be one of the worst trades in BASEBALL history.
The next team that gives Neal Huntington a job outside of concessions is insane.
Certainly was a bad trade….sucks for the Pirates, they got pressure from the team and fans to go for it in 2018, ultimately didn’t work out that year or in the future
Nobody remembers the Cubs heist of Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton?
I sure do!!!
I also remember the Pirates wanting the Cubs to take Ramirez as part of the requirement if they want Lofton. That must of been one tough decision for Hendry to make at the time. lol
Complete heist. Cubs got one of their best franchise players in their history, and the pirates got a package headlined by Bobby Hill…
That bad return for Bonilla was facilitated by Kevin McClatchy making it know that they had do reduce player salary to keep the club going. Everyone in the league knew that the Bucs had to get rid of the contract so they got lowballed by everyone.
If you can’t make payroll go to the bank for a loan or sell part of your owner’s interest to raise the money. You don’t give away one of your best assets and lower the value of your franchise.
Pirates Organization are so so cheap.
Ughhhh. What a disaster. I admit I was in favor of the trade at the time it happened. What a colossal epic failure. Horrible
Padre fans were clamoring for Archer
Most of padres Twitter are morons.
All of padres Twitter are morons. No rea padres fan wanted him.
Yea they did they love all the shiny toys
Guy who run fan page total imbecile old dude who talks s…t
Most Pads fans are so starved for any success that they cling to any sign of hope, no matter how dismal or unrealistic.
Well he had a decent little career.
Seriously though, has anyone, starter or reliever, ever made it back to even close to what they were after TOS? I can’t think of anyone. Seems like something the medical community hasn’t cracked yet.
Jaime Garcia came back from it and pitched a few decent to good seasons
The article discusses a few notable pitchers that returned from it.
Not really. The “success stories” just look better because the others have looked so bad.
No power arms have successfully returned from it. A few soft toss control types have had some moderate success.
Good article about TOS: blogs.fangraphs.com/phil-hughes-and-the-sobering-h…
Definitely an “iffy” procedure it would seem. One bright side though — Archer has better raw stuff than quite a few of those pitchers on that list. Not to say that means he’ll bounce back easily, but I’d still say there’s a chance.
I don’t think this trade can get any worse. I just don’t.
Sadly it continues to get worse, I really feel bad for Pirates fans, this is brutal.
It could. Meadow and Glasnow and Baz can all turn into players with multiple all star seasons. Then it would get worse. Then again, Glasnow could keep having arm issues instead of it being only the one injury last year, Meadows could end up really being a journeyman outfielder and Baz never make it to the Bigs and then it might not look quite as horrible. Only time will tell how bad the deal ends up being.
That trade just keeps on getting worse somehow
Tragedy…
Neil Huntington always bashed these Sorta deals, said he would ‘never do something insane’.
Cut to 2018. The team was hovering near playoff contention and fans would have killed him if he didn’t acquire some help…
Anyways I wish Archer a good recovery and hope to see him pitch in 2021
Anyone who followed his work knows Huntingdon would have rather cut off his own toes with a butter knife than trade a prospect.
That was a panic move by Nutting forced upon him.
As opposed to the only other time Huntingdon traded prospects, the Liriano to TOR deal, when that was a money move that Nutting forced upon him.
Still, short of Archer burning down PNC Park, hard to see how this could have worked out worse.
Still time on the deal to accomplish the last point.
Huntington could just say NO to Nutting. He would lose his job but still have his reputation and maybe catch on as a GM elsewhere. The stink stays with him not the owner.
Hard to image another trade between Tampa and Pittsburgh after that total fleece job. The Pirates lost the Cole trade as well. Pathetic!!!
Bridich and Stewart were different kinds of bad compared to the others
Bridich and Stewart… ouch. If I’m a GM and my name is being linked to them, it’s time to update the resume.
The trade seems to be not only bad, but even cursed. Let’s hope Archer beats the tough TOS odds!
Gruß,
BSHH
So I’m guessing that option gets declined next offseason. Since BC didn’t make that trade he probably doesn’t feel an obligation to get SOME value out of it like NH might have.
Since literally everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the Pirates relative to that trade, picking up the option would only invite more disaster. Let him walk, and move on without giving it a second thought.
Totally agree.
Yep. Agree. The Pirates don’t need to throw good money after bad.
Back in March, I was hoping that Archer would have a good 2020 and we could salvage something by moving him for a couple of prospects at the deadline.
When I’ve seen people elect thoracic outlet surgery, I’ve just begun assuming their career is over.
Not sure this is really the worst trade in Pirates history. Consider:
* In 2003 they traded 25-year old Aramis Ramirez and 2 months worth of a 36-but-still-productive Kenny Lofton for Jose Hernandez and two Nobodies. Hernandez hit .223 with 3 HR over two months and was released after the season ended.
* In 2001 they traded Jason Schmidt (and 35-year old John Van Der Wal, so, whatevs) to the Giants for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong. Rios hit one homer in a couple hundred at-bats with the Pirates over the next year and a half and was released. Vogelsong pitched in two games, missed a year and a half after Tommy John Surgery, and then pitched terribly (5.73 ERA, which was bad even in the height of the Steroid Era) for parts of the next four years with the Pirates before leaving for Japan.
Plus they missed a chance to get Ryan Howard for Kip Wells, which is perhaps the worst non-trade this side of all the people for whom George Steinbrenner once tried to trade Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera and/or Jorge Posada.
And those are just in the last 20 years! Surely this one has a long way to go before this is labeled the Worst, no?
The Lofton/Ramirez trade was awful, but I really don’t blame the team fully for the Schmidt trade. Schmidt was not very good with the Pirates, or even before his time with the Pirates. He was a solid #4 or #5 starter, but nothing too impressive.
Yeah, he went from a LAIM (League Average Innings Muncher) to a perrenial CYA contender at the age of 28, coincidentally right about the time he started playing with Barry Bonds. :-/
Change the last line to “pitching in SF”
It’s the heavy air of the West Coast, and can be seen all up and down it. SanFrancisco, Oakland, LosAngeles, Anaheim, SanDiego, Seattle – all of them could revive a pitchers career, or make a star out of a mere serviceable arm, depending on their pitch style.
Didn’t really work out that way for Matt Moore, Jake Peavy, Drew Pomeranz, Jeff Samardzija, but yeah, it’s definitely a pitcher’s park. Schmidt pitched to a 3.04 ERA at home from 2002-06, and a 3.73 ERA on the road. That’s more than just a park factor difference, SF was neutral or even a slight hitter’s park by 2004-06, so he didn’t get that much help in that vein.
It’s of course quite possible that he just got better coaching, better treatment, or was helped by being in a more competitive environment, but I wouldn’t be surprised to find out someday that the leaking of his name from that list of PED users in 2003 turned out to be substantiated. (Admittedly, he pitched extraordinarily well right away in the couple of months after the trade in 2001, which is too soon to draw any PED inferences. I’m just suggesting the possibility.)
PEDs dont make you pitch better. Shoot, they dont even make you hit better, but that’s a whole other conversation.
From 2002-2006, Schmidt had a 3.04 ERA (3.54 xFIP) in SF, and 3.72 ERA (3.99 xFIP) on the road.
Over the same time, we also see numbers like these from his rotation mates
3.41 Home, 3.72 Road – Russ Ortiz
4.23 Home, 4.64 Road – Kurt Rueter
3.99 Home, 4.89 Road – Livian Hernandez
4.40 Home, 5.57 Road – Matt Morris
And those Road numbers are even deflated some because of the high number of games played in similar extreme pitchers parks of LA and SD
It’s the stadium. Some benefit more than others, but that stadium was/is primed to make pitchers look much better than they actually are. Happens all up and down the West Coast.
Some then take the change in style to capitalize best from the SF confines, and make that a new altered pitching style that helps them on the road, or with a new team, as well. Schmidt was slightly better on the Road than he had been in Pitt (4.29 FIP from 97-01 there) but that isnt a huge change to the 3.99 xFIP of SF (xFIP isnt available before 2002, but with a .96 HR/9, it probably would have been around that 4.29 number)
You lost me at “PEDs dont make you pitch better.”
I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant that they don’t necessarily help you with your command, with the “feel” of your sinker, or help you learn how to throw a curve. OK.
But they absolutely help by making you stronger, giving you more stamina (both in-game and during work-outs), improving velocity, probably even spin rate, which it turns out is super-important to pitching effectively, but we’ve only recently developed the ability to quantify it.
There have been dozens of pitchers suspended for failed tests, or otherwise implicated in investigations, books, testimonies, etc. and God only knows how many more used and were never caught. Jason Grimsley, Kevin Brown, Chuck Finley, Andy Pettitte, Eric Gagne, Jenrry Mejia (3X!) and of course Roger Clemens all might take exception to your assertion, to name just a few.
We can debate whether Schmidt was guilty of using PEDs, but clearly there is evidence that the stuff is helpful.
The more you do something, the better you are at it. In that way, yes, they help you. But they do not actually make you better at something. Most of the players popped for usage didn’t see any noticeable indication they were using. Some used plus put in all the work to benefit in some way, but most seemed to have used as if they were aspirin or similar med to keep them feeling better during the grind.
There is zero evidence to indicate Schmidt should ever be suspected in any way. None. It is an odd, randomly throwing out of an accusation with nothing to support it.
Statistically he went from around a 4.25 xFIP (a number influenced by an injured & horrible 2000) to 4.00 road xFIP. That is not much difference at all. Take just more normal seasons with the Pirates and he went from a 4.10-4.20 guy to a 4.00 guy. Give minor leway to consider any possible adjustment to his game made to benefit from Oracle more, and you are quickly looking at the same exact pitcher with just a move to a new stadium.
The change in Schmidt is a product of a West Coast stadium, in this case SF. Just like so many countless before, and after, him. Been many a guy we would have likely never even known the names of if not for them having pitched in one of those cities.
Guys like Eric Gagne, Magglio Ordonez, and Juan Gonzalez went from greats of the game to fell off a cliff and retired after they had to get off the juice.
Extremely puzzling comment as Gonzalez retired because he could not stay helthy (but still hit to a 122 OPS+ in his next to last year) Maggs retired at 37 (while having a better than his career average 129 OPS+ at the age of 36) and Gagne battled constant injuries for his final 5 seasons, which is what eded his career (he is the only of the bunch that could be considered to have truly fallen off a cliff, but it is known to have been caused by the injuries)
You could have at least tried to pick better names to make this random claim about; the ones you did choose don’t fit your characterization at all reallly
I think you’re grasping here. You can parse the data any way you like and make an argument for your case, but the fact remains that, for the most part, the historical records and incredible seasons that were occurring regularly 20 years ago are not happening anymore.
Many of the MVP and CYA winners between the late 1980’s and ~2010 or so have been linked to PEDs: Canseco, Sosa, Caminiti, Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Clemens, Gagne, Juan Gonzalez, Giambi, Tejada, Ryan Braun. And that doesn’t even consider other stars like Palmero, Cano, Dee Gordon, Manny Ramirez, Melky Cabrera (not a “star”, but he won a batting title in the year in which he was suspended), Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda, and so on, Clearly they seem to have a beneficial effect, whether you want to admit it or not, If you’re going to start from the premise that they don’t then we can’t even have a conversation.
I’m not even accusing Schmidt of anything nefarious, just suggesting that it’s possible, given the coincidence of his *significant* improvement with his joining of the Giants, who had several known PED users during Schmidt’s tenure there (Bonds, Santiago, Estalella, Neifi Perez) as well as after (Melky, Mota, Alfonzo). Doesn’t make him guilty. It just increases the chances that he may have used them.
In any case, your assertions that this was basically just a park effect are strained at best. Baseball Reference’s park-adjusted stats for the bulk of Schmidt’s time in SF show that the biggest difference in park factors was 2002. That year the Giant’s park factor was 91 for pitching, while PNC had a 107 pitching park factor. That disparity, for his 2002-2006 numbers, brings his total adjusted ERA from 3.06 for the SF park all the way up to…3.35. :-/ In reality, his ERA was more than a full run lower as a Giant (3.36) than it was as a Pirate (4.39), about the same difference as his FIP, and his ERA+, WHICH CONSIDERS THE PARK FACTOR, was 126 rather than 102.. There is no way that’s just a stadium effect, though obviously there’s no hard evidence of steroid use either.
Not reaching one bit, and its actually you who seem to be doing so to see something very normal as if it is abnormal.
No, it wasn’t *only* park effect – he also changed the way he pitched to best benifit from that park effect. I said that too. Dont believe me though, just look up his name. Easy to find everyone saying the same thing…
“What made Schmidt so good in San Francisco? Undoubtedly, the ballpark had something to do with it. Schmidt was a fly ball pitcher (career 38.2% GB%), and the brand new, spacious Oracle Park (it wasn’t called that then) had just opened in 2000. The cavernous outfield let Schmidt pitch to his strengths. But it wasn’t just that. The Pirates wanted Schmidt to use his breaking pitches and sinker, trying to hit the corners and induce contact. The Giants, on the other hand, saw Schmidt’s great fastball, which sat in the high-90s, and told him to do what he was best at: throw gas.”
Schmidt had 6 seasons in Pit, with 2000 being an outlier because he was hurt. The other 5 look like this
4.31 FIP, 4.06 ERA – 1996
4.13 FIP, 4.60 ERA – 1997 (bad lob luck)
4.17 FIP, 4.07 ERA – 1998
4.45 FIP, 4.19 ERA – 1999
4.17 FIP, 4.61 ERA – 2001 (bad luck on hr rate)
The consistent numbers? 4.05-4.20. That is what Schmidt was, a 4.05-4.20 pitcher while with Pitts. If he had one more season, 4.05-4.20 is what should have been expected as it is what he did most all of the time.
And what was he with the Giants? A 3.99 XxFIP pitcher on the road
That is just a 0.05-0.20 difference in his game.
If a pitcher drops 5-20 points over two period of times, that isnt note worthy, it’s normal.
So why were his numbers better ERA wise? Well, he adjusted his game to benifit from SF more, and it meant he was k”ing more so he didn’t allow as many baserunners to come in on his HRSs allowed. Also allowing more popups rather than long flies, which decreased the hr rate. Extremely normal stuff here.
And then we get to AT&T park – the most extreme and notorious power surprising park there is. Yes, Bonds obviously did it regularly. Everyone else tho, not even close. Your attempts to point to individual years park factors don’t consider what goes into that park factor – the lack of HR power, but an increase in linedrive/grounder hits in the case of SF. The teams Schmidt played on where filled with those types of hitters as the team tried to take advantage of the field. That is why the park factors got any bump. That says nothing about how easy (or in this case hard) it was to hit a HR though …and since Schmidt was an extreme FB pitcher, he doesn’t have to worry about the LD/GB rates much. it was his team inflating the number to begin with, but he doesnt throw to those tyoes of hitters anyway. He’s K’ing or popping up so many hitters; any GB/LD hits were going to be stranded in an ab or two, not score. His ERA is of course going to be lower than his FIP/xFIP because his game was perfectly suited for the park he was in …but he was still a 3.99 pitcher, and would have been doing that in an average park
Its all unbelievably simple and easy to understand if you spend even a second thinking about it. In fact its one of the most logical big change in stats you’ll find. Schmidt is 100% a product of AT&T park.
And as far as your steroid ranting; you apparently didn’t read what I said. But look, testing started in 2002, and became much heavier penalties in 2005. If you were using after those times, we most likely know. And no, again, just using does not make you better. Even your own list proves that – Neifi Perez is one of the worst hitters the game has seen, and he was using. Sure did him a lot of good getting to that .267/.297/.375, 64 ops+ line. So sure, go ahead, cherry pick the best players who used and say “see, look” all you want, but the vast majority of users were not good players even while using. And that is because steroids don’t make you better, they merely give you the opportunity to become better. In the way they were used most though, it was just to feel better as you went through the grind of a season. “I take these and my legs aren’t as sore after a game” – that is why guys like Neifi, or the endless forgettable relief pitchers that make up most of the users, were using.
Blast from the past, havent heard the name Kip Wells since MVP baseball
Bandwagon Fans love to hate on Neil Huntington, but forget how bad Dave Littlefield’s trades were. And don’t get me started on his drafting (I.e. Daniel Moskva over Matt Wieters)
Huntington was much better than Littlefield but then his magic and or logic seemed to disappear for some reason once he and Hurdle got their contract extensions.
Panj- I agree.and that was Nutting’s fault.He gave two men who had just had two mediocre years a four year extension!No incentive to improve.I would have given two years and would not have had to pay them for the other two years.It was very noticeable with Hurdle that the drive just was not there.
Don’t forget the Matt Morris trade where Pirates took on all of Morris’ bloated salary at the tail end of his career. Littlefield was truly clueless.
It’s all about the money, money, money!!
How about drafting Tony Sanchez over other quality talent?
Poorly run organization to put a championship product on the field. Hope new order does something. Nutting has been playing the Pirates fan like a fiddle. It’s all about the money, money, money!!
First, I hope and pray Archer can make it back to pitch effectively again after he recovers. He genuinely seems like a good dude who unfortunately never had the success us Pirates fans hoped he would have.
Second, this trade is a perfect example of how thin of a high wire a small market GM works on in MLB. One misstep on a gutsy decision to go for it, and the entire organization is shattered. With the end result being a complete turnover of management, and years of losing baseball for us fans.
TOS is the real career killer. It would be surprising if this was any different. This would’ve been much better news had it been a TJ
Archers career is officially over and the pirates have officially made the worst trade of all time
Officially? That means its cited somewhere. Please cite source of official announcement. Otherwise…..maybe you are a low-end commenter?
Go steal something. No pitcher comes back from this surgery and is actually effective. They may come back and have a few good outings but they will never pitch again. Career over
So far, Glasnow and Meadows have played one year. The Orioles sent Curt Schilling (a potential HOF’er), Pete Harnisch and Steve Finley for 3 terrible years of Glenn Davis.
Send me a text when this Archer deal (admittedly bad) comes close to that one.
Are you saying 5 more years of those two… is better than archers end state of 6-12 with a 4.92 era? Do you serious think they will pick up his option for 21? It takes about 18-24 months to come back from that surgery if they can come back from it.
Dave Littlefield thanks you for not remembering his awful tenure as GM.
Hey Jeremy Burnitz is available. Let’s wire him $40 million dollars.
I always wished they would have sign Jose Canseco after they got Jeromy Burnitz. I mean, the Pirates were going to be terrible anyway, but we could have got to see a LOT of monster home runs in place of wins.
Lowtalker-Did you ever hear of Babe Ruth who came up with the Red Sox?How about Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas?How about the trade that sent Roger Maris to the Yankees?
All time is a long time.
Please speak up when you answer.
Welcome to Boston next year…give us your hurt, your tired, your poor…
Considering Bloom’s familiarity with Archer, that makes it pretty plausable….also that the Sox might have to resurect Jim Lonbourg to fill out their rotation….
The fit makes sense. If I’m Archer though, I’d try to find my way to SF, SD or Seattle on a 1 yr deal with a large club option for a 2nd. The home confines would be a lot more pitcher friendly, which would give him a chance to rebuild some value- if he can.
Taillon came back from TJ wonderfully.. until he needed another
The fans should sue him for fraud.
He has been underperforming FIP/xFIP since 2015, ever since the loss of his 2 Seam. Since that time he has been on the decline, one that has ramped up the last few seasons, as he’s gotten more and more predictable on the limited repertoire. The Pirates tried to get him to be able to throw it again since they’ve acquired him, but with poor results. I wouldn’t be shocked if we found out this is an issue he started to first feel during the 2014 season, felt most/almost exclusively when throwing that sinker, that he had hoped to just deal with and adjust for. The fact the Pirates were trying to get him to throw it again, after so long of him just curbing it, might even be why it has come up to look into a possible injury.
Coming back would be a big task anyway, obviously. But if he comes back and is still without that pitch, I dont see how his career continues with any degree of success. Maybe as a reliever, but he just doesn’t have enough on his other pitches to compensate for the lack of repertoure over 5+ innings. I’m not sure that would change if he still cant throw his old sinker that made sure everything else was so unhittable.
Wish him luck with both the procedure and recovery, and do hope now maybe his old pre-2015 self may be reachable once more for him
You do realize starters with ERA’s in the 4’s can survive, right? He was right there from 2016-2018. And tossed 200 innings twice in that 3 year period. That would still play anywhere
Never said otherwise. But his specific case is one where he has already been on a steady decline for 5 years, as he has became more and more predictable with that lack of pitches.
Now he would be taking those already unimpressive, but usable, results from the lack of arsenal, and adding in a recovery from a procedure most don’t come back from. Extremely tall order
Ninety percent of the time that a team trades a starting pitcher there is something wrong health-wise and they are never the same. Buyer beware. Look for problems with Stroman, Greinke, et al.
Never make a trade with Tampa Bay!
Bad news all around. Archer is a young man whose career might be over, the Pirates continue to lose on the trade.
Definitely one of the worst trades I’ve seen in a long time. This is Vernon Wells trade bad territory.
TOS is probably worse for a pitcher now than TJS. I can’t think of a pitcher that’s had this surgery and bounced back. This may be it for Archer
Did this suddenly come up now or did he know about this months ago?
Does it even really matter?
Yes, Do you need someone to explain why?
As I said in my post, I wouldn’t be surprised if it weren’t a then seemingly minor issue he’s been dealing with dating back to 2014
He dropped the sinker, the most important pitch he had, in 2015. It was for a reason, we just don’t know what that reason was.
The Pirates then trade for him, try to get him to throw that 2seam again, and now all of a sudden he’s seeing doctors that are telling him he needs TOS?
He missed time in April/May of 2019, and was shut down for good in mid August. Pirates didn’t even get a full year out of him. I suspect their having him try to throw that pitch again brought about whatever discomfort made him stop throwing it in the first place, and upon the team hearing about that discomfort, they had him start to visit doctors.
Its assumption, but it does line up very well as a possible explanation of multiple things
So why did this happen now and not many months ago? Did he suddenly get injured sitting on his couch? What a waste. Just goes to show how some people believe advanced stats are the end all be all. Archer can’t pitch, he has a good breaking ball but nothing else to keep hitters honest
I think a lot of players may be choosing to go the surgery route knowing their either won’t be baseball or so they can avoid covid issues
Well, if there is a positive…the Pirates rotation just got better
He knows there won’t be a season so time to just get the surgery done and over with.
More like I want out of Pittsburgh surgery
There’s a team in an independent league that’s going to have a heck of a #1 and #2 when they have both Archer and Matt Harvey.
Sorry to see the guys career go really south. I liked the guy but he could struggle..
Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia are NOT success stories. Garcia fell into mediocrity after the surgery, while it essentially ended Carpenter’s career.
I honestly think the trade wasn’t that bad until last year. Through 2018 he had a 3.7 career era with 19.5 WAR and meadows was always injured and glasnow couldn’t throw strikes.and 2018 archer wasn’t bad, 4.3 era and 2.6 war isn’t spectacular but he had a 3.7 fip indicating bad luck.
The trade really turned bad when archer sucked in 2019 (possibly already under influence of the injury), meadows suddenly got Healthy (lets see if that sticks) and performed great and glasnow suddenly learned to throw strikes (which was a surprise at that point probably wouldn’t have happened under the old school pirates pitching development. So a lot of chances happened for this trade to turn out this bad at the time of the trade it looked like archer would continue to be a solid but not spectacular 3 war starter while meadows looked like an injury bust and glasnow looked like he would be a reliever due to not throwing strikes albeit with great stuff.
I’m not saying the trade was great but at the time archer looked like a steady guy and glasnow and meadows were great prospects who had lost shine due to underperfornance and injury and it looked like trading them was leaving a sinking ship.
If the Pirates didn’t make that deal, they would actually be looking like a pretty solid organization with all that talent. It just doesn’t make any sense.