There’s a clear top pair of free agent position players available this winter: J.T. Realmuto and George Springer. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff projected five-year, $125MM terms for each, with only starter Trevor Bauer pegged for a higher guarantee. The Blue Jays and Mets are reportedly the strongest possibilities to land Springer, but Realmuto’s market has been less defined to this point. Which teams are in the best position to make a run at the catcher?
A nine-figure deal for Realmuto would be out of character for lower-payroll clubs like the Indians, Marlins, Brewers, Athletics, Pirates and Rays. We can fairly safely rule them out. The rebuilding Orioles aren’t going to make a win-now splash, and the Rangers are selling off pieces this winter.
There are a few more clubs that are generally expected or have already signaled a desire to reduce payroll this offseason. The Reds could stand to upgrade at catcher, but discussions about their offseason have been about subtracting expensive talent, not adding it. The same is true of the division-rival Cubs. There haven’t been many offseason rumblings about the Diamondbacks or Rockies. Both could make sense for Realmuto in theory but it would register as a real surprise if either put forth that kind of offer. The Cardinals are engaged in a contract stalemate with franchise icon Yadier Molina, who would come significantly cheaper. They’re not expected to pivot to Realmuto if talks with Molina fall through.
A handful of others have settled catching situations already. The Mets made sense at the start of the offseason but signed James McCann instead. The Royals and Giants aren’t going to sign Realmuto and displace their respective faces of the franchise. Yasmani Grandal is perhaps the only other catcher in the sport close to Realmuto’s level, so the White Sox are all set. Turning to the remaining thirteen teams:
- Angels: The Angels have very little certainty behind the plate in Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom. There’s obvious room for an upgrade there, although the Angels are already projected by Roster Resource for a 2021 payroll just $15MM shy of last year’s figure. They still need to upgrade the pitching staff, so it’s possible they roll with a lower-cost group at catcher.
- Astros: The Astros have bigger needs to address in the outfield and bullpen. They were ruled out as potential Realmuto suitors early in the offseason and are instead in advanced discussions with Jason Castro.
- Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have seemingly been linked to every big ticket free agent and trade possibility (Realmuto included) this winter. They’re clearly looking to add high-end talent to help the team take a leap into permanent contention, but that might take the form of a Springer signing instead. Young catchers Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk have promise but might not have enough of a track record for a win-now team. They could be moved if Toronto added Realmuto.
- Braves: This seems highly unlikely. Travis d’Arnaud was excellent in 2020 and GM Alex Anthopolous has shied away from long-term deals since taking over in Atlanta.
- Dodgers: The Dodgers have the flexibility to get into the mix for any elite player. But Will Smith looks like one of the game’s best young catchers. Theoretically, L.A. could sign Realmuto and trade Smith to upgrade other areas of the roster, but that’d be a real stretch.
- Mariners: The Mariners could be an interesting dark horse to make a splash this offseason. There’s room on the books, particularly long-term, and the Seattle front office has spoken of a desire to compete in 2021 after a few seasons of rebuilding. Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens are a decent in-house tandem, so a Realmuto signing is a longshot. But the Mariners are in position to pounce on players they consider special talents and Realmuto certainly qualifies.
- Nationals: The Nationals have been in contact with Realmuto’s camp this winter. He’d be a massive upgrade over the team’s current pairing of Yan Gomes and Tres Barrera. It’s uncertain at best, however, that ownership will give GM Mike Rizzo the financial leash to again dish out a market-setting contract for a top free agent.
- Padres: San Diego acquired Austin Nola at last year’s deadline and seems more likely to look for starting pitching with Mike Clevinger out for 2021 due to a Tommy John surgery.
- Phillies: Realmuto’s former team doesn’t have an obvious replacement if he departs. They tagged him with a qualifying offer and have reportedly made a contract proposal.
- Red Sox: Boston is generally expected to prioritize pitching this winter. Christian Vázquez is one of the sport’s better catchers, so this would be a surprise. The Red Sox have the spending capacity to get into the Realmuto mix, but there’s no indication they have any intention of doing so.
- Tigers: Detroit has no in-house certainty at catcher and the long-term books are pretty open. The Tigers aren’t immediate contenders, making this a weird fit, but the front office could at least explore adding one of the game’s best catchers to work with the prized young pitchers leading the rebuild.
- Twins: As with the Dodgers and Red Sox, Minnesota could theoretically sign Realmuto and trade their quality in-house options (Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers, in this case) for help elsewhere on the roster. But again, it doesn’t seem especially likely.
- Yankees: The Yankees have been focused on re-signing DJ LeMahieu to this point. If LeMahieu winds up signing elsewhere, a Realmuto pursuit would be plausible. The Yankees tendered a contract to Gary Sánchez but it’s anyone’s guess what kind of production they can expect after his dismal 2020 season.
The Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Phillies and Yankees seem like the strongest candidates to sign Realmuto, although there are a few long-shot scenarios that could land him in other cities. We’ll turn things over the readership to predict his ultimate destination.
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Whatever team pays him the most will also happen to be the best fit
Any team that expects Realmuto to be the best catcher in baseball 4 or 5 years from now will be sadly mistaken. Regardless of what pundits say, JT wasn’t even the best catcher in baseball in 2020. The Royals catcher was probably the best offensively and the Braves catcher Travis d’Arnaud was probably the best all around. d’Arnaud won a silver slugger and performed very well behind the plate for $8 million a year. The Royals catcher won a silver slugger as well and hit for more power than any catcher in baseball. Yes, catcher is a premium position and yes Realmuto’s offense is well above average for that position but any team that pays him to be a driving offensive force on their team is going to be disappointed. Look at what happened with the Twins and Mauer.
JT Realmuto is like a very nice piece of jewelry or outfit for a beautiful women. It can work out great but the person wearing it has to be beautiful in the first place for it to really matter. The only teams that could truly win a world series by signing Realmuto are teams that have offenses that are so loaded already the catcher position is the only position that has room for improvement. Paying Realmuto like he is going to produce like an outfielder or corner infielder with great offense is one thing. Actually relying on him to do that is a totally different thing. Any team that signs Realmuto should look at him as icing on the cake because they were gonna make the playoffs anyway and he might push them over the top and help them win it all. Any team expecting more than that from him is clearly not going to win a world championship. The Phillies are a perfect example of a team that will not win a championship by signing Realmuto. They can’t even make the playoffs without him. Heck, they can’t even make the playoffs with him. How is he going to push them over the top? Any team in a similar situation should shy away from paying a catcher of all positions over $100 million. It would be a waste that never produces the World Championship their fans truly want. In fact, who was the last catcher on a $100+ million deal that worked out? You could argue Posey but the Giants were right there on the cusp of winning it all without him so that’s the only reason it worked out. The Giants still wish they were out of that contract years ago. Mauer is the only other example and that was a disaster. Money wasted.
I get your point, but when the sample is 2 people, and one worked out with multiple titles… it’s not a well supported point
Jays all the way. The Nats should get Joe Mauer. Phillies should get Brian Mccann
A little late as McCann signed with the Mets.
That’s James
DOH! Apologies. I’m a moron and misread. But also a little late as Brian McCann retired. I’m a bigger moron for missing the sarcasm.
No your good lol
Recognizing it is half the battle.
Are we just glancing over joe Mauer comment?
woooooosh!
LOL! Who cares about Mauer?! McCann is the problem!!! >={
Something somebody said 10 years ago for $500 Alec.
Fits the Nationals pretty well
The only question with the Nats and Phils is are they willing to spend, or are they looking to cut back completely? Both teams have hinted at cutting costs big time, but Realmuto would completely contradict that. Realmuto would fit nicely on either roster for sure.
Given longshot odds, I’d place a few shekels on the Mariners.
I’d say there a long shot for Bauer n Arenado as well but I’ll throw my coins in with you
At the beginning of the year, I was calling for Realmuto in Seattle.
Then Nola asserted himself as a legitimate backstop.
Then he got traded.
Then Torrens started making himself incredibly interesting. Raleigh may be closer than he appears as well.
I’m a bit confused as to what direction the Phillies are going, but to me they’re still the best fit. Realmuto has performed well there, enjoyed his team on the time, and has seemed to have found a close friend in Harper (although I think people are exaggerating how Harper would feel if J.T. goes elsewhere). That being said, if the Phillies are looking to cut cost, splurging on a catcher seems a bit of a contradiction. If the Phils offer is low, I think a team like the Blue Jays or even the Nats will come in with a late deal outbidding the Phils.
Jays will beat the Nats and Phils on both term and dollars. The Jays catching depth is significant and will be used immediately to upgrade their rotation.
Jays will also sign Kim for $35 million over 5 years. New starting 3B batting out the 7 hole.
@Jal179 I can definitely see this if the Jays miss out on Springer and/or Bauer.
I just can’t see the Jays outbidding Cohen for Springer. The trade market for starters is ripe for the picking. Shatkins will be aggressive with JTR. I keep telling all my buddies that JTR is the most logical top end FA for the Jays as it allows them to trade from a position of significant strength.
I voted Angels. It would be such an Angels move to whiff on all their pitching targets again and then sign an expensive position player.
THIS ^^
Actually you’re 100% right.
I also picked angels, they miss out and need to throw money somewhere
So what you really mean to say is, if the Angels whiff on Bauer, they will sign an expensive position player ala Realmuto? I mean Gaussman and Stroman excepted their QO’s which means the next best pitching FA they could possibly acquire is Tanakah since it’s looking pretty iffy that Kim goes anywhere.
So if the Angels DO miss out on Bauer, would you prefer Tanakah..or Realmuto? If you’re going to miss out on Bauer than I would say that Realmuto is their next best option. If you are going to miss out on essentially the only significant needle moving starter on the market, upgrading your catcher makes the most since. Realmuto has a good reputation for handling rotations. He would get the most out of rotation that despite improving over the 2020 season, still lacks that clear no.1 starter that you want to give the ball too in a game 1 playoff.
No, the Angels need Tanaka much more than JT.
Seems like a perfect fit for Toronto. Heart says Philly, brain says north of the border.
poll link for Android users?
No for me, too.
Whoops, my apologies. Poll link now included in post. Thanks for the heads up!
Anaheim: has a bunch of well above average position players and a top OF prospect. They also need starting pitching as bad as anyone.
So of course the The Angels will sign him.
Surprised he doesn’t get linked to the Padres more. Preller went super hard after him in trade two years ago.
The Padres have other more pressing needs. They need a front line starter, bullpen help and a few solid utility guys to provide more depth and augment their bench strength. Nola’s no Salvador Perez, but he is better than Hedges was offensively and should bridge the gap until Campusano is ready.
Nola is way better than Salvy. He’s already made up over a quarter of Perez’s fWAR in 3442 less plate appearances. I’d say Nola has easily been one of the most underrated players the last 2 seasons.
Yea that 700 OPS as a Padre just screams underrated
They had more pressing needs 2 years ago as well. That didn’t stop Preller from going super hard after JT.
It’s the Jays. Cohen will offer Springer massive sums. Bauer to the Angels. DJLM to the Yanks.
Then the Jays move Janssen to the Pirates for Joe Musgrove.
Kirk and Groshans (and others) to the Reds for Luis Castillo.
JTR to the Jays for $100 million over 5 years. Book it.
@Jal179, some rumors have the Phillies going 5 for 125, which I find very difficult to believe. But, theoretically, if the Phils did go that high, do you think the Jays will go higher?
Hopefully not. Wouldn’t go above $90/5-years. Other pressing needs for the Jays.
I’d be fine with 100/5 or 100/4.
If you are fine with 100/5 or 4, then the Jays should scrap the idea of Realmuto and push for a deal for Arenado. Enough with this silly idea of Realmuto and get a real impact player at a position of current need. If you want to throw money away at a position that is not a priority then throw money to a position that IS of-need. Let’s start using logic here, as you are overrating Realmuto waaaaaaay too much. Trade for Contreras, problem solved and money saved.
I’m not dealing for Arenados $199 million albatross contract, slightly above average OPS outside of COL and bum shoulder.
You couldn’t give me Arenado if you wanted.
….And there it is, Jal. You have no problem wasting money on a player the Jays do not need. Yet, a player they DO need who’s better and more superior than Realmuto, you balk at it like it’s the plague.
Cool it on the Realmuto hype. His numbers are not strong enough to deserve $20+ mil per season at age 30. If you feel strongly over Arenado’s bad contract you shouldn’t be keen on handing Realmuto a bad contract either.
The Jays are signing akin to play 3B.
No one wants Arenado’s contract buddy especially when he can opt out after 2022. The Rockies will get jack squat for him.
And JTR at 5/100 then moving Janssen and Kirk for controllable starters addresses their SP need which IS A BIGGER NEED than 3B ya goof.
WAJGH, Well, the Arenado contract would be DOUBLE the proposed Realmuto contract so it’s quite different. That Arenado contract is awful and I also wouldn’t take it on for anything
Not true. Go look at the stats recently away from Coors. His average ops away from there is being affected by his first two seasons and 2020, only 30 games away. Otherwise he has been over .800 ops at least
Cosmo your math is off as it wouldn’t be double but thank you for your input.
If it allowed the Blue Jays to rid themselves of Grichuk and Roark’s contract it is something to strongly consider. The Jays would be better with Arenado hitting 6-hole the next five years than have Realmuto at a position that is not a huge hole for the Jays.
And if Arenado opts out, even better. Drop a QO, get a draft pick and be rid of all bad contracts. Huge win for the Jays if that scenario came to fruition.
Arenado is not opting out. Would the Rockies eat both Grich and Roark’s contracts? Doubt both but maybe one.
Yes they would. In fact, they’d probably kick in money on the back half of the contract once Grichuk’s contract ends. They will absolutely eat both. For a price of a prospect, of course.
Plus, Rockies know that opt out looms and they lose their negotiating leverage.
Wow— that’s rich from the Phils if true. I could see them going 5/135 but I doubt that’s be enough to lure him north.
I was thinking there’d be a number of 4/80 type deals offered to him already which is where I thought the Phils would offer.
I wouldn’t get in a bidding war over JTR given age and wear and tear of the catching position.
@Jal179, I just want to emphasize that I find those rumors to be completely false, especially at this stage. I do think JT will certainly get north of 100 though, and I can’t see the Phils going that high given all the talk about cutting salary.
I agree— those numbers do not align with Dombrowski’s payroll messaging. They have way too many pitching needs to be offering a 9 figure deal to JTR.
Phils fans still angry about Joe in ‘93 starting these BS rumours.
Nobody is getting north of 100 with a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the 202`1 season. It’s realistic to expect the top free agents will have to wait a while if that’s the money they’re looking for — and that money might never be there for them. These owners aren’t going to bid against themselves.
I think they’re over ’93, but not 2012-present.
@Cey Hey ~ There’s no indication that’s the case and that top free agents aren’t going to get paid. Not every team is just going to roll over and play dead because 2021 will be another down year for revenue. The forward thinking teams will take a page out of Warren Buffett’s book and be greedy while others are fearful. You can bet the Mets’ Cohen for one has read that book cover to cover many times.
Jays sign Kim (if you’re lucky) finish 4th in the division & run Montoyo out of town on a rail. Book it.
the Jays arent finishing anything less then 3rd unless the Sox make a few big splashes.
I went with the Nats
No one cares who you “went with”.
Lolz, I know I’ll probably regret asking this but, what the heck is your deal? Seems like you’re just here to insult people. Why so obnoxious?
Yikes, Lolz! That response seemed a bit over the top. Relax. The rest of us are enjoying talking baseball.
I’d challenge you to a battle of wits, but I see you’re unarmed.
Jays make the least sense (as a Jays fan) unless they already have moves in place to trade Kirk+ for high end pitching. They could just keep Kirk and Jansen and use the hundred million + to get a position of need. At least Springer fills a current hole.
I disagree. Kirk and Janssen will easily fetch Musgrove and Sonny Gray tier starting pitching returns. Shatkins and Cherrington are still in bed together
Yes. Shatkins still thumbs Cherrington’s nipz
A lot of man love between those three. But seriously, Janssen for Musgrove is going to happen. Rock hard nipz.
LOLOLOL!!!
Pirates are set at catcher for 3 years. Not trying to contend for 3 years. So this isn’t happening. They would love to have a catcher, but has to be a prospect with more control.
Exactly what I was thinking
Would have laughed if you left the Phillies off the list.
He’s just not as good a player as he thinks he is. He’s never had a season above 4.5 bWAR. Catchers don’t age well. Reportedly he’s looking for $130 million and I have a hard time seeing him getting much more than Grandal got last year. Few teams seem to want to lay out a lot of money for a catcher.
I’m going to vote Tigers since they have nothing on the books going forward.
I’m voting for the Tigers as well. Not yet a contender, but some nice young arms, money to burn, and a direction. It would similar to the White Sox signing Grandal in that they weren’t a playoff contender just yet.
A lack of direction is why I doubt he returns to Philadelphia. It’s still a mess with ownership complaining about lost revenue. Why throw yourself in the middle of that negativity. Detroit is actually a more stable situation. My second choice would be Seattle.
“Why throw yourself in the middle of that negativity.”
Money dude
The Phillies claim to be out of money.
They’re getting their stimulus check, so they’ll be OK.
Phillies and Gnats make the most sense
Why the Giants? They owe to themselves to take a long look at Bart and would still be far back in that division.
Gnats = Nationals
In Dodgerland, Gnats are Giants. Nats are Nats, like Ed Norton’s friend Nat Birnbaum down in the sewer.
Curious what others think Alejandro Kirk and Janssen’s trade value would be? I keep thinking Musgrove for Janssen but I’m a Jays homer and am probably grossly overvaluing each ha.
given its the Pirates you are dealing with Jansen would be enough. if it was anyone else owning Musgrove it would cost more.
That makes no sense.
the Pirates are terrible at making trades. that’s why.
I think that deal makes sense both ways.
Grossly overvaluing is an understatement on each of your posts today man!
You keep suggesting a couple of prospects (regardless of how good they might be) for established major league pitching when pitching is valued more than anything else……Castillo Gray, Musgrove…anyone else you think should be on the Jays?
I think Alejandro Kirk and Dasan Brown for Musgrove would be close. Janssen less so based on the Pirates contention timelines which I hadn’t considered when cooking up potential deals.
Point is, the Pirates and Jays are very very likely trading partners given Covid impacts and Cherrington’s comfort with the Jays farm system.
If only the Rays could afford JT
The Rays have nothing on the books. I imagine they could if they felt it was a good idea. They gave Charlie Morton that deal two years ago.
Yeah rays could easily afford him. They just choose to spend money wisely.
they could easily, but they wolnt do it anyway.
Yea that’s what I meant. They can literally afford JT but he’s not within their “budget”
I’m going the less likely route and saying Yankees. Because he fits the kind of player they tend to go for: big slugger, best at his position, fills a short term need, and likely to be a DH in 3-4 years.
Big slugger?
Seattle and Detroit makes so much sense. It’s like the Werth to the Nats and Hosmer to the Padres deals. JTR would be the building block for those teams as they exit the rebuild.
AL West in a bit of flux with the Astros coming back to earth, Central divisions are generally easier to move up in. Seattle or Detroit can change their outlook fairly quickly. With the Phillies, there would still be much work to do. Do they want to make a mistake twice on the same player?
I wouldn’t be shocked if DiPoto makes a move here. He needs to add at least one top tier FA over the next two years to REALLY get into it; maybe two. JT might be that guy.
Anybody thought that he takes a 1 year contract and waits for more offers next year?
Doubt it
no
Will Smith is going to be the best catcher in baseball within 2 years. No chance they trade him.
The Jays need Realmuto as much as he needs them (to make a big offer). One of the Jays’ catchers has character problems exposing himself in parking lots, and the other catcher borders on morbid obesity (Kirk), so hopefully they’ll clean house and get JTR into the fold.
We love the fatties. Vladdy and Captain Kirk always ride on opposite sides of the plane to balance things out.
“Cardinals aren’t expected to pivot to Realmuto if talks with Molina fall through” …. really? Why not? Seems like a good fit
Because they have been crying poor since the pandemic started, and likely won’t spend if not for their icons?
How is signing big contracts out of character for the Brewers? They signed Lorenzo Cain to ~$80m three years ago. I think that was before they even had Yelich. If Realmuto’s market isn’t strong they could get him with a backloaded contract.
Jays…however will be 5/120…JT said he wants more annual value then Mauer (23mil)…so that deal gets it done.
They also sign Kim for the infield and Bradley JR for center to move Randal to DH.
Then Jano to pirates for Musgrove.
I know Yankees aren’t impossible, but no way they should be top 5.
I Choose Other:
Detroit Tigers
I really Doubt it but hey, why not. Way back when they started to build the teams of Glory the first person they signed was Pudge, yes a catcher & a good one. Then Magglio, and the building blocks were in place to build around.
So Yes, the Detroit Tigers will be the Late Dark Horse that brings home the prize.
Phillies
Nationals
Blue Jays
Angels
Yankees
I have the same feeling I had with Rendon
He could fit with the angels, definitely an improvement. But they should spend elsewhere. So I pick the angels. Arte loves his hitters
The Tigers really like Dillon Dingler, who was drafted with their 2nd round pick last year, and should be a fast riser through their system. They also have Jake Rogers and others, so I don’t see them spending big at the position.
I think that the Phillies will resign Realmuto with some creative, cost deferment contract. They didn’t get Dombrowski to not spend money and he only costs money, not prospects. Losing him would be a PR disaster after trading Sixto Sanchez for him. Signing him would be a huge PR boost for Middleton and Dombrowski. It will also gets butts in the seats when the pandemic clears. They have no Plan B at catcher and though they did not win WITH Realmuto, they would have won 7-10 more games with a competent bullpen. They had plenty of offense. Sign JT and remake the bullpen which typically doesn’t cost that much money and there are loads of free agent relievers this offseason. Just those moves would cost less than they spent last year on payroll with Arrieta, Robertson, and Gregorious coming off the payroll (though they should also resign Didi).
As a Phillies fan, I totally enjoyed Realmuto the past two seasons. Didn’t get us to the playoffs, but not his fault.
Much as I’d love to see him return to the Phillies, I just don’t think it’s a prudent decision to give a long term (6 years or more) to a catcher. They tend to age faster than players at other positions. Buster Posey, not too long ago THE catcher among catchers in all of baseball, has been just a shell of his former self the past few years.
If I’m Sam Fuld (New Phillies GM for those who missed the news!), I offer J.T. $18 million for five years. Ninety million is a lot of cheese and should keep him and his family out of bread lines for several generations.
I voted Angels just to see the results. The only reason the Angels might need a catcher is because Stassi may not be available to start the season. Otherwise Stassi and Bemboom did fine for us. JTR would be an overpay when we should be spending every penny on pitching.
Shatkins are all talk. They’ll sign Garret Richards after missing out on Glen Sparkman. And maybe trade for Trevor Williams or Chad Kuhl instead of Jameson Taillon or Joe Musgrove.
This made me laugh. Shatkins are so corporate it’s nauseating.
Kinda rooting for the angels to go get him … idc who he goes too so long as it’s not an national league East team. Prefer no national league team gets him and in fact, he just goes to the west coast and plays in the American League