In a sport known for its protracted regular season and voluminous historical records – playing for a franchise that had been without a championship crown for over a century – Kyle Schwarber established his legacy over a seven-game stretch of the 2016 playoffs. Though he only appeared in five games of the World Series, physical perseverance, inspired play and a confident batting eye turned Schwarber into a Chicago legend at the tender age of 23. His presence as a designated hitter for road contests at Progressive Field played no small part in turning the tide on a 3-1 series deficit (though starting Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks in consecutive games didn’t hurt either). Schwarber reached base in half of his 20 plate appearances, and the Cubs won three of four games in Cleveland to take the crown.
While the baseball community largely recognizes that playoff performance is not predictive – nor repeatable – Schwarber is living proof that small samples, at times, do prove enduring. Schwarber will be memorialized for generations in Chicago for his appearance against the Cleveland Indians in 2016.
His myth-making return from season-ending injury is also a warning against our tendency to muddle the narrative of heroes. In that World Series, Schwarber did lengthen the lineup and provide a fear factor that was easier to see in real-time than in box scores after the fact, but it’s fair to wonder if his impact in Cleveland didn’t unwittingly get conflated with his status as a top prospect and his gargantuan output in the 2015 playoffs, when he hit .333/.419/.889 with five home runs in nine playoff games. The years since have only further complicated our ability to manufacture a compact narrative for Schwarber as a ballplayer. For starters, even a .136/.321/.273 line with just one home run, one RBI, two runs scored, and a negative championship win probability over 10 playoff games since 2016 hasn’t totally erased his reputation as a “championship proven” bat.
Further, his stat line in any given year is like an optical illusion (is he black and blue or white and gold?). His production hasn’t matched his reputation, and the advanced metrics don’t match the on-field production. In 2018, Schwarber hit a high-water mark by measure of 3.2 fWAR despite a .238 batting average and career-low 41.5 hard hit percentage. In 2019, he actualizes his “slugger” persona with a .531 slugging percentage, 29 doubles, and 38 home runs. He posted new highs with a 120 wRC+, .282 ISO, and 50.9 hard hit percentage – the third-highest mark in the Majors. The total package still amounted to just 2.1 bWAR/2.6 fWAR – solid numbers, but shy of the line for a presumed All-Star.
Then 2020 happened. His launch angle plummeted, and his .219 BABIP, .204 ISO, .188/.308/.393 line, and 90 wRC+ were all career-worst numbers. When the Cubs non-tendered him rather than pay the projected $7MM to $9MM in arbitration, few were surprised.
But the Nationals paid him $10MM for the 2021 season anyway – and that wasn’t shocking either. After all, Schwarber’s batted ball numbers have made him a popular bounce-back candidate among the Statcast crowd, and it’s not hard to see why: His resume includes finishing in the 95th percentile by exit velocity in 2019 and 2020, the 92nd percentile by barrel percentage in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and that 99th percentile mark by hard hit percentage in 2019.
At the same time, it’s worth considering how much of a role his subpar speed and 28 percent career strikeout rate play in his “under-performance.” He’s not the worst defender in the world, but negative three defensive runs saved in each of the last two seasons doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll become a plus on that end of the field. Of course, with Victor Robles beside him in the outfield and Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg (hopefully) missing bats on a regular basis, the Nats seem to believe he doesn’t have to be a gold glove candidate. Besides, should the designated hitter make its way permanently to the National League, he may not have to spend every day in the grass.
The Nationals hope a reunion with Dave Martinez will provide Schwarber a comfortable environment to reset after a disappointing final season in Chicago. Beyond his relationship with Martinez – his bench coach for the first three years of his career – Schwarber will have a new social circle with whom to yuk it up about the ins-and-outs of hitting. That group will include hitting coach Kevin Long, his collegiate buddy Trea Turner, fellow new kid Josh Bell, and phenom Juan Soto. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato provides video of Schwarber himself breaking down his new team (via Twitter).
Still very much in his prime entering his age-28 season, Schwarber may yet fulfill the legendary potential he established in the 2016 World Series. Given the new faces in the division and the now-rote proficiency of the three-time defending division champion Braves, the Nationals are counting on a big season from Schwarber to help the franchise rebound from a difficult 2020.
All that said, let’s keep this simple. Will Dave Martinez and the Nationals be able to unlock Schwarber’s potential and see him become a devastating middle-of-the-order presence? Or will Schwarber’s Statcast profile continue to betray him as he hits the ball hard but not often enough to truly classify as an elite bat?
Of course, there are many different ways to skin this cat, so let me offer this final framework as one way to simplify. Schwarber’s value proposition is his bat. By wRC+, which attempts to measure offensive contribution, adjusted for park and league, Schwarber has created 13 more runs than the average player over his career. As noted above, his career-high over a full season is 120 wRC+. But he also produced a 131 wRC+ over 273 plate appearances as a rookie in 2015. For context, 35 players posted a wRC+ higher than 130 in 2019, 24 managed that mark in 2018. Can Schwarber be one of those guys in 2021?
(poll link for app users) (poll link for app users)
Weak sauce in the potential department.
The dress is black and blue. That’s the most important thing here.
No and what’s with the porn ad??
LMAO I just saw that! MLBTR made a deal with local hot moms in your area!
Was literally about to comment word for word exactly what you said lowtalker1. Hahaha
The ad is based on your actual web side activity.
Never seen an ad for anything I’ve ever searched for here, not even similar things. It definitely is not.
I think they will because he was expected to be a star in Chicago and now he has a now chance for a new team in a new city and he doesn’t have a lot of pressure so he can just be the player he is
He wasn’t EXPECTED. He hit a HR on top of a scoreboard 6 hrs ago and they left the ball up there and enshrined it in a glass case. He was hyped to be something he never was.
Well said. I actually feel bad for Schwarber. Stan Zielinski the scout who pushed for the Cubs to draft Schwarber, is the one who tagged him with the Babe Ruth BS, and fans/ media ran wild with that. Ignoring scouts who said at #4 Schwarber was a huge reach. Schwarber getting out of Chicago is the best thing that could happen to him. I am also getting to think that might be the best thing for Bryant to.
Completely agree. I thought at the absolute best he’d have a brief Giambi-like presence in the Cubs lineup. More than likely he’d be a Russell Branyan/Adam Dunn-type of player. This Baby Ruth crap was just that — crap. He was never going to live up to that. I’ve always wondered what he’d do for a full season at Great American with the Reds. He grew up a fan, hits well there, and that is a band box in Cincy. Always wondered if his numbers would’ve been sweetened as a Red.
If Schwarbs decides to give an honest commitment to begin using the entire field, I think he would become the hitter that the Cubs thought he could become.
The problem to me, seems that the Cubs are responsible for placing too much attention towards the power aspect of his game. I think it was the fault of the Cubs, he never grew as a hitter.
@chitown311
6 years* not hrs.
He seems to have a great relationship with Dave Martinez too, so hopefully that will help him in terms of getting to play for someone he loves and respects
@mlb9229, I agree that his relationship with Martinez will help him become a better hitter. Martinez didn’t sell out for power, and if he can get Kyle to buy into that mindset, Washington will have a nice addition to their lineup.
Really dumb poll!
First, tell me what he weighs?
Body fat ratios?
Is he “getting any” on a regular basis?
Covid exposure ?
And then we’re still just guessing.
This is the most pointless post I have read in 10 years.
Facts! The author wrote this with a strange, almost convoluted tone. You’d think he had a pickle up his you-know-what. Also hate that the poll used wrc+, I have no idea what that is.
Yes now that he’s with a real contender I believe he will play to his long awaited potential.
“Real contender” don’t make me laugh
Seriously. The Nats are sinking like a stone.
I definitely don’t think the Nationals will be contenders this year. However, they still have a lot of really talented players on their roster and should be able to compete for a Wild Card spot this year.
Yes, and this is exactly why I feel bad for the legitimate stars who are about to go down hard. Hopefully management ships them out before it’s too late.
Schwarber is a platoon DH that was signed to play the outfield and pushed the Nationals best player off his position.
I understand his upside but the Nationals have to be hoping and praying that there is a DH next season so they do not have to suffer through Schwarber and Bell playing the field on a day to day basis.
He’ll be a 1B option by Opening Day. Kyle is nothing more than the Matt Adams/Eric Thames-replacement. Nats seem to like those types.
I’m going to disagree because Schwarber has way more upside than either of those guys and his defense in LF isn’t as bad as people are making it out to be.
With that said, the Nationals defense is going to be spot lighted next season… it’s going to be bad! Soto and Schwarber are both sub average defenders in the corner, Bell is horrible at first base and Kieboom is below average at third. It will be interesting to see the effects on Turner and Robles who were both below average last season as well.
I bet his Mom voted Yes.
Does anyone think that with training and exercise he could become a decent fielder, He is only 27?
You don’t think he has been training and exercising?
Schwarber is an incredibly hard worker and he lost a ton of weight from when he broke into the league. His defense has also improved but he’s always going to be a below average defender in the outfield. At least I do not think so, despite all his hard work he still has a hard time reading balls off the bat and he takes bad routes but the effort is always there.
What kind of player he’s going to be with the Nats depends on whether or not there’s a DH in the NL. If there isn’t then he’s a platoon out fielder who’s so utterly feast or famine that he’s going to be a liability most of the time.
If there is a DH, then whether he rises to his potential depends on how reasonably you define what his potential is. He’s not an All Star. People expect that of him because of one great playoff series and a lot of raw talent. But his style of talent was never going to be the kind you can develop and refine into consistent greatness.
If the Nats expect a serviceable DH to add some depth around their stars, he’ll be okay I guess. If they want a front line middle of the lineup bat, they’re going to be out of luck.
One thing is certain: he changes nothing about the Nationals. At best they’re a third place team. They’re no where near the playoffs.
Any team with Scherzer, Stras, and Corbin is near the playoffs.
Their only good hitters are Turner and Soto. They aren’t going anywhere with a platoon, should-be DH who is still only relevant because he hit a long home run half a decade ago.
What a long-winded, wordy, overwrought post. This could have been 2 or 3 paragraphs.
All that said, let’s keep this simple. Will Dave Martinez and the Nationals be able to unlock Schwarber’s potential and see him become the middle-of-the-order devastating power bat? Or will Schwarber’s Statcast profile continue to betray him as he hits the ball hard but not often enough to truly classify as an elite bat?
This could have been the entire post i think.
Nice attempt to keep the site moving when the market isn’t.
Over the course of a full season, Kyle has a hot streak or two and gets to about 110, I’ll guess.
His potential is to be the next Rob Deer.
Agreed .. the left handed version … he could have some good weeks or month but he will come back to the back of his baseball card.
He averaged 31 home runs a season before 2020 but even then he had 11 in 224 at bats. He provides power and lots of strike outs. The Nats need the power and are hoping to manage his strike outs. They taking a chance, yes. I don’t think he’s quite as bad as his 2020 numbers show.
With Bell & Schwarber, Washington’s defense just took a major hit. In all
actuality, they have added 2 DH’s this off-season.
Washington’s pitchers had better strike out a lot of the opposition’s hitters with the defense they are running out there this year.
That’s kind of a trick question. I think he’s already maxed out on his potential
Unlock his potential? He’s not a superstar. Schwarber is a good to very good player (except for last year). After 6 seasons I think you have a pretty good idea of what Schwarber brings. Lots of power, high strikeouts, decent OBP, lifetime 113 OPS+, solid fielder. He might have a very good season and/or a great postseason. IMO a good bet at 2/18.
What potential? He is who he is. Big power but mediocre everywhere else. Joc Pederson is better than him and so are many other free agents. This is Thames all over again.
Schwarber has a career 113 wRC+. People on here are predicting he will regress with the Nationals?? Are you serious?
Schwarber was buried by being rushed, and that’s on Theo. The bat was advanced, but everything about him needed more time in 2015. Then again he was a difference maker in the 2016 WS, so… either way he was never going to live up to the media/fans hype. I wish him the best tho — a Cub fan.
you’re crazy if you had enough faith in WSH to vote yes. could they? maybe. will they? darn unlikely.
Washington is going to regret not making a serious move this offseason. Their core of 3 rotations pitchers Soto and Turner are as good as any teams top 5 players. Suarez is head and shoulders above bell and schwaber combined and he was available to em but typical never considered trading top prospects. They keep those guys before they’ll ever try to win it in one season. Which is stupid as this coming season may be the end of their long window.
When has Rizzo “typically” not traded top prospects? Lucas Giolito says hello.
I’m not sure the Nats can do much to tap into Kyle’s “potential”. At this point, he is who he is, not a BAD player by any means, but he has significant warts (offers nothing defensively, or on the base paths). A team full of Kyle Schwarber-s is a .500 team. He just doesn’t do enough things that lead to winning games.
That said, the contract is a little heavy, but not dramatically so. He is who he is, a #6 hole hitter who’ll contribute to some run scoring generation, and prevent some others. If you have a lot of money (the Nats do), he can be a piece of the puzzle.
A lot of fans believe in the false narrative that most hitters continue to improve til about age 29 or 30, with 27-29 being peak years. But very often, if not most often, players peak comes and goes before they reach 26. I think Schwarber is just one of those guys and his peak was marred by injury. At this point, he is what he is.
Juan Soto is going to end his career with Ted Williams numbers. Check out his baseball reference page and advanced metrics. Sick
I’m just trying to imagine some day Schwarber on the same team with Francisco Mejia. Both came up as catchers whose skills were so atrocious they’re only considered for that position in an emergency. These are players with definite offensive potential who have no real position, so their best fit is in a universe where MLB has adopted a 2nd DH or AH (additional hitter). Trouble is they’re not living in that universe.
The amount of attention given to this totally failed, wash-out prospect is crazy! He has like 5 bWAR for his whole career! This dude is flaming garbage. It’s not like he has some super high pedigree that wasn’t realized.
He has 1 tool- power. And it’s platoon power.
This is beyond absurd-level attention.
I they won’t, but I bet he’s pretty solid there
No.
No ,but the 10 mil will
Mariners 2022
Mariners 2022.
Mariners 2022. !!!!!!