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The Other Rockies’ Superstar Who Made St. Louis Home

By TC Zencka | January 31, 2021 at 12:03pm CDT

If the Cardinals are able to complete their acquisition of star third baseman Nolan Arenado – under the terms as we know them now – they’ll add the best defensive third baseman of his generation. Kyle Newman of the Denver Post pegs the Arenado deal as the biggest trade in Rockies’ franchise history. Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong certainly sounds pleased, saying on MLB Network Radio today (via Twitter), “…having a guy like Arenado in our lineup is going to completely change the way pitchers look at us.”

Arenado’s trophy case is full: five All-Star nominations, four Silver Slugger awards, and a Gold Glove for every season in the Majors (eight). A career .293/.349/.541 hitter, Arenado has created 39.1 bWAR/32.3 fWAR with a solid 7.9 percent career walk rate and solid 15.0 percent career strikeout rate. Though 2020 was a down year offensively, he became one of the toughest hitters in the game to strikeout, doing so in only 10.0 percent of his plate appearances.

All that said, he would head to Busch Stadium III with the usual caveats of a player leaving Coors Field. Namely: can he hit outside of Coors?

Paul Goldschmidt can walk Arenado through the transition from face-of-the-franchise in the west to being just “one of the guys” crashing at Yadi Molina’s house. But to preview the shock-to-the-system Arenado may face taking his hacks so much closer to sea level, we can go a little further back to another Rockies’ superstar who went east for the latter half of his career: Matt Holliday.

Holliday averaged 154 wRC+ per season during his first five years at Coors Field, his age-24 to age-28 seasons (2004 to 2008). Over that same time span he posted 105 wRC+ on the road. For his part, Arenado is a career 128 wRC+ hitter at home and 108 wRC+ hitter away from Coors.

Visual learners can check this Fangraphs chart for his home/road splits by age, then do the same for Holliday. Holliday’s splits look nearly the same through age-30 before converging at the point in his career that Arenado faces now: 30 years-old and permanently changing his address from Denver to St. Louis.

As you can see in that chart, Holliday’s overall wOBA follows a fairly traditional aging curve. Playing at Coors Field, however, can warp the shape of that production. As this March article from the Athletic’s Nick Groke covers in detail, the Coors Field dilemma isn’t just about how fast the balls fly through Colorado’s thin air, but how much sharper the breaks appear to hitters on the road. As much as Coors helps a hitter’s numbers (more than a normal home split), playing away from Coors hurts (more than a normal road split).

To think in terms of wRC+, it might just be that the Arenado who arrives in St. Louis will no longer be a 128 wRC+ hitter at home and a 108 wRC+ hitter on the road – but he could still be a 118 wRC+ hitter overall.

Or at least, that was Holliday’s path. Over his seven years in St. Louis, his home/road splits stabilized. He would average 133 wRC+ on the road and 142 wRC+ per season at home. On the whole, he arguably became a better hitter with 133 wRC+ during his five seasons in Colorado compared to 139 wRC+ in his seven full seasons in St. Louis. Does that mean Arenado will do the same? Of course not. Just because Holliday stayed largely healthy and productive past his prime years doesn’t mean that Arenado will do the same.

Holliday and Arenado tracked mirroring paths to the Show-Me State. Holliday’s age-29 season was anomalous for his career in terms of the playing conditions – just like Arenado. Whereas Arenado had to deal with a 60-game season in a pandemic-wracked world, Holliday faced the equally jarring reality of moving from Coors Field to Oakland’s spacious Coliseum. I kid, but Holliday’s half-season in Oakland stands out as a singularly odd year on Holliday’s resume in terms of the conditions relative to the rest of his career. If Arenado stays in St. Louis the length of his contract, he’ll be in Cardinal red for seven seasons from age 30 to 36 – the exact length of stay Holliday enjoyed in the Gateway to the West.

On the other hand, they aren’t the exact same type of hitter. While both are right-handed sluggers, Holliday had a little more in common with Goldschmidt than Arenado. Holiday was a worm killer even in his era. As a Rockie, Holliday logged a 1.38 groundball-to-flyball rate, whereas Arenado’s 0.87 GB/FB rate reflects the fact that he hits the ball in the air more than Holliday ever did. Compared to the rest of the league, Holliday hit the ball on the ground more than the average player throughout his career. Arenado can’t even see him from so far down the other end of that spectrum.

Holliday sprayed the ball to all fields a little more than Arenado, who leans pull side with 41.8 percent pull percentage to 23.1 percent opposite field for his career. Theoretically, that could hurt Arenado, as Busch tends to be a good singles and triples park for righties while suppressing offense in most other regards, per Park Factors at Swish Analytics. At least he’ll have a shorter porch in left to target, for what that’s worth.

Will Arenado adapt to his new confines? Ask Holliday, who not only tread this path before but was teammates with Arenado in 2018. He offers nothing but praise, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Besides, Arenado’s glove should continue to be an exceptional asset. While age may diminish his abilities at the hot corner somewhat, he has a lot of wiggle room before even entering the stratosphere of any other third baseman outside, maybe, Matt Chapman. With DeJong on his left, he shouldn’t even face much of an adjustment there. DeJong may be one of the few defensive shortstops who can rival Trevor Story’s competence on that end.

Arenado is heading from an organization that has never won its division to one of the game’s premier, trademark franchises. He’s leaving the NL West, where the Dodgers and Padres are readying for what could be an epic divisional bloodbath – and he’s joining the NL Central, where contenders are being broken down and sold for parts. It might be a jarring move for Arenado, but he can always look back and take comfort in the fact that this trail has been blazed before – and it worked out quite well. Remember, it was only their second full season together that Holliday and the Cardinals won the World Series.

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Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals Matt Holliday Nolan Arenado

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112 Comments

  1. fsrasmd

    4 years ago

    I hope this trade falls through.

    3
    Reply
    • GoLandCrabs

      4 years ago

      Trading your star player who has a market value contract AND eating 50 million is bad for the sport

      Reply
    • qbert1996

      4 years ago

      why?

      Reply
    • hashtahjimboutonwasright

      4 years ago

      @fsrasmd I hope your favorite team’s stadium (likely either Wrigley, Coors or Dodger’s Stadium) gets swallowed up by a giant winged. monster.

      Reply
    • Blessd24

      4 years ago

      Why?

      Reply
  2. camdog23

    4 years ago

    I think he has a huge year. Little biased but still

    1
    Reply
    • SoCalBrave

      4 years ago

      I don’t think he’ll have a huge year, not do I think he needs to. He’ll still have gold glove caliber defense, hit .285 with 25 HRs and that’ll still be a net win for the Cards.

      Reply
  3. cards04

    4 years ago

    He’s not one of the guys in Yadi’s orbit. Let’s be honest Yadi is aging and below average now, Arenado and Goldy are the stars.

    3
    Reply
    • Lanidrac

      4 years ago

      Factor in his still very good defense, and Yadi is still overall at least an average player.

      1
      Reply
  4. nmendoza7

    4 years ago

    Great article

    Reply
  5. andthenisaid

    4 years ago

    I like how you think, TC! Hopefully it plays out as well as Holliday!

    3
    Reply
  6. flyingblindsquirrel

    4 years ago

    The man can hit. The only question is whether he’ll remain a superstar or regress down to just a star. Either way, when you factor in his defense, StL just got A LOT better.

    3
    Reply
  7. solaris602

    4 years ago

    Since COL kicked in $50M I would think there would be something going back to the Rockies aside from the massive salary relief. Anyone have any idea who, if anyone, the Cards will part with?

    Reply
    • cards81

      4 years ago

      Solaris602…I heard Gomber is part of the trade and he should be a solid #3-4 rotation guy…haven’t heard to much of anyone else though

      1
      Reply
      • barkinghumans77

        4 years ago

        Jake Woodford was confirmed but aside from those 2, not sure

        Reply
        • screwball8

          4 years ago

          Jhon Torres, Luken baker

          Reply
        • cards81

          4 years ago

          With Woodford, who could be a good #4-5 guy, the Rockies did ok considering the Risk the cardinals are taking with the opt out and all

          Reply
        • screwball8

          4 years ago

          Jhon Torres and luken baker

          Reply
        • dmarcus15

          4 years ago

          Plus the Cards added a second opt out but Nolan made the contract end loaded.

          Reply
        • headhawks

          4 years ago

          Others are:
          1B Luken Baker, OF Jhon Torres. Are also in on deal. It’s either Rodon or Wofford

          Reply
      • StlSwifty

        4 years ago

        I’ve read up on Torres and baker a little bit and it sounds like there is some upside there. I wouldn’t hope for too much out of any of those pitchers going to coors though…

        Reply
    • KiahFJ

      4 years ago

      Indicated reports are “Lefty Austin Gomber, righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon, first baseman Luken Baker, and outfielder Jhon Torres are headed to Colorado in exchange for Arenado.”

      With Torres being the highest Cards prospect at #9.

      Reply
    • Afk711

      4 years ago

      Luken Baker was supposedly in the package.

      Reply
    • seth3120

      4 years ago

      Honestly not much. These projected 3rd starter or 4-5 starter are their ceilings as prospects. The Rox didn’t even get so much as a lottery ticket really. They kicked in 50m because Arenado not only requested a trade but had a very short list of teams he’d approve his NTC to go to. That gave the Cards leverage which they used

      Reply
  8. playhard9

    4 years ago

    Should be a much needed boost to the offense just like DeJong said. And can’t wait to watch the defense he provides every year. Assuming this goes through, I will have to stop bashing Bowtie….Mo….at least for a few weeks. Bring on spring training!!!

    Reply
  9. Vizionaire

    4 years ago

    yup, cards always develop their own players. yeah!

    Reply
    • smith_matd

      4 years ago

      I think the statement is that the Cardinals generally develop a lot of serviceable to good players. They haven’t done well at developing any superstar talent since Pujols.

      Reply
      • 17dizzy

        4 years ago

        I agree—-the Cardinals produce good average players in their minor league system. After Pujols, Yadi, & Wainwright came up, they produced some very good players but no power hitters after Pujols.

        Reply
  10. themed

    4 years ago

    What a team. And what an honor it is for the great ones to be a St Louis Cardinals and all of their rich long winning traditions. It seems once a player puts on that uniform of two birds and a bat they become a Cardinal for life and fans and the organization ever forgets them. As always it’s a great time to be a St Louis Cardinal fan!

    2
    Reply
    • Fuck Tim Dierkes

      4 years ago

      Yea Home of the St Louis Cardinals where you learn how to hack other teams databases then find a fall guy. Funny people want pitchforks and burn the Astros alive but the cardinals are perfect in every way. Pot meet kettle

      Reply
  11. Hawkeye2020

    4 years ago

    If the trade gets announced soon, and thats truly all it took to get Arenado….Just think about that…The Rockies took one for MLB in a bid deny the Dodgers a chance at the title…Imagine if the Angels dont make the playoffs…Will Trout wanna go to STL???

    1
    Reply
    • Travis’ Wood

      4 years ago

      All it took? It was clearly a fair trade… does nobody even consider the contract? Everyone said the exact same thing when Stanton was traded… you trade the contract not the player. He’s on a market value deal aka no trade value….

      Reply
      • baseballpun

        4 years ago

        As a Cards fan, I don’t know if I can agree it was “clearly fair,” as (if the reports on the return are true), it doesn’t sting me at all to lose anyone St. Louis is giving up (compare with the Arozorena trade, which bummed me out at the time it was made, even though I was excited to get Liberatore). I feel like if it was a fair trade, at least part of me would be like “Well, I hate to see X go, but ….”

        That said, everyone wants to have it both ways, saying the contract is an overpay and that the Rockies got fleeced. I don’t think it can be both.

        2
        Reply
        • Lanidrac

          4 years ago

          Well, I do hate to see Gomber go if he is in fact included. He had a very good rookie year last year and was on track to be our 5th or 6th starter this year.

          Reply
      • neo

        4 years ago

        that’s not quite how a market works.. return on investment minus cost does not equal value here. The demand for the entity drives up the price. If nobody wanted a player like him, Nolan’s value might be closer to that simple as you suggest. But he’s a more precious asset than that, even if his salary is commensurate with his production.

        Reply
      • Fever Pitch Guy

        4 years ago

        Gotta love how in a short period of time the Fangraphs Sabermetrics community has gone from “striking out isn’t necessarily worse than any other sort of out” to “Arenado’s excellent 15.0 percent career strikeout rate”. Always change the narrative if it benefits you.

        3
        Reply
        • gbs42

          4 years ago

          @Fever- Striking out generally is worse than other types of outs, just not to the degree as used to be thought, especially when the trade-off results in more hard-hit balls, especially those that clear the fence.

          3
          Reply
        • whyhayzee

          4 years ago

          Strike outs mean more pitches. More pitches mean more pitchers. More pitchers means dilution of pitching. Dilution of pitching means more runs.

          Or something.

          Reply
    • Loling @ you

      4 years ago

      Dodgers without arenado are still due a bid for another title. Trading a ton of depth and prospects for a guy that still can’t hit outside of coors with an opt out after next season makes little sense. Dodgers could get him in free agency for nothing next season or 22’

      Reply
      • baseballpun

        4 years ago

        If he “can’t hit outside of Coors,” he won’t be opting out. So Arenado’s either going to give the Cards an MVP-level season or two and expect the Dodgers to exceed his current guarantee, or he’s going to be more of an above-average bat rather than an elite bat and stay in St. Louis for 7 years.

        5
        Reply
        • mlbdodgerfan2015

          4 years ago

          Most likely the latter. No one is saying that Arenado can’t hit away. It’s just that Coors inflated his overall performance and is not worth his contract. Dodgers are never going to acquire him unless contract is significantly altered.

          Reply
        • Loling @ you

          4 years ago

          It’s a win win for dodgers imo, if he performs outside of coors and cards get smoked he can opt out and get another larger deal on open market for a contender. If he stinks he opts in and cards are stuck with a guy who can’t hit nearly as well as he did at coors. All the risk is on cards imo, still remains to be seen what they gave up to get him.

          Reply
        • baseballpun

          4 years ago

          I think if he’s healthy, maintains his defensive prowess, and ends up being a 1110-115 wRC+ hitter over the course of the contract, the trade will have worked out for St. Louis. I hope his bat is better, of course, but I don’t think he has to be 140 wRC+ for the next 7 years to justify this deal.

          4
          Reply
        • baseballpun

          4 years ago

          It’s not anything for the Dodgers because the Dodgers aren’t involved. If Arenado plays well and the Dodgers want to give him $35 million a year for his age 32-40 seasons, vaya con Dios.

          1
          Reply
        • MoRivera 1999

          4 years ago

          Cards aren’t paying $35MM and so, presumably, the Dodgers wouldn’t have either. So that’s not the consideration. So I guess I disagree that it means nothing to the Dodgers. They missed out on Arenado for $27MM/yr. That may/may not have been a thing. But I agree with your previous point. I think it most likely works out to be a decent deal for the Cards.

          1
          Reply
        • mlbdodgerfan2015

          4 years ago

          Yes, that’s an overpay. $35mm is the current without the discount. And the Cards threw in non-elite prospects.

          Reply
        • baseballpun

          4 years ago

          You sound like a jilted ex-lover here. “No big deal, we’ll just get Arenado in LA later. Except he sucks, so haha St. Louis, enjoy your sucky player. Unless he doesn’t suck, then we want him. Except he’s going to suck. We love you Nolan!”

          1
          Reply
        • mlbdodgerfan2015

          4 years ago

          Have never wanted Arenado. Have always said that it was a stupid contract the moment it was signed. I hope the Dodgers never trade or sign for him. Plus he sounds like a prima donna with his antics in Colorado. They massively overpay him and he’s offended to hear his name in trade deals?

          Reply
        • PeteWard8

          4 years ago

          Holliday could break up a double play with the best of them.

          Reply
        • stan lee the manly

          4 years ago

          O ya, Dodgers are clearly the winner of this trade…lol

          Reply
      • 123redsox

        4 years ago

        We have seen the redsox and Yankees go through periods of decreased payroll recently. With Kershaw and betts both under huge contracts and Buehler and Bellinger due for raises soon, I’m not sure the dodgers would push too hard for arenado. And even then, they added an extra year to his deal in st Louis. .. and while he isnt the same MVP bat statistically on the road throughout his career, he still has had a solid bat that has performed exceptionally well in recent years. Even if he isnt mvp, he’s still going to be an all star

        2
        Reply
      • Stromalama 2

        4 years ago

        Can’t hit outside of Coors? Try watching baseball instead of just looking at stats. Breaking pitched don’t break in higher elevation so when they go on the road they aren’t used to seeing that much break, hence the crazy splits for Rockies players.

        Now look at players who leave the Rockies and how they adjust. Arenado is a top 10 player in baseball, he’ll be fine.

        Reply
    • philsphan1979

      4 years ago

      Dude, comparing Stanton to Arrenado is an insult. Prob one of the greatest 3B of all time

      Reply
    • drhubbs

      4 years ago

      Did it ever occur to you that maybe Stl was the only place he wanted to go? Look at Stanton…maybe that was the only option Colorado had. Just food for thought before you rail the upper management of Colorado….

      Reply
    • Bill walsh

      4 years ago

      Why would anyone want Pujols …was that a joke

      Reply
    • baseballpun

      4 years ago

      If Trout wanted to win, he never would have signed that extension with the Angels.

      4
      Reply
      • dmarcus15

        4 years ago

        Something to be said about someone that’s loyal to a team.

        Reply
    • Stromalama 2

      4 years ago

      What does this trade have to do with LA? Lol

      Reply
    • themed

      4 years ago

      I’m sure Trout would love to come to St Louis The Cardinals made a pretty good ball player out of Jim Edmonds when he made the switch.

      Reply
      • gbs42

        4 years ago

        Edmonds already was a “pretty good ball player” before he came to St. Louis.

        Reply
  12. philsphan1979

    4 years ago

    Man the Rockies failed HUGE on this deal. I understand he wanted out, but I’m sure they could of gotten a better deal from any of the rest of the 28 teams across the league. Hopefully for the Rox ONE of these players pan out, or this will go down as one of the worse trades in baseball history

    Reply
  13. TwinDaddy29

    4 years ago

    And here I thought they were going to talk about Larry Walker…

    Reply
  14. mlbdodgerfan2015

    4 years ago

    Of course his numbers are going to drop, and potentially meaningfully. What Holliday and Goldschmidt have in common are that both their home numbers dropped when going from a hitter friendly home ballpark to a pitcher friendly home ball park. Holliday’s home numbers dropped more meaningfully as he came from a more hitter friendly home ballpark. So, it’s almost certain that Arenado’s numbers overall will never come close to his Colorado days when you factor in home ballpark. Is that worth $35mm per year? Clearly not. Cardinals even with the discount are taking on a lot of risk. We’ll see if that pays off.

    Reply
    • baseballpun

      4 years ago

      Holliday was never anywhere near approaching the defender Arenado is, though.

      2
      Reply
      • mlbdodgerfan2015

        4 years ago

        True but even with defense is Arenado worth the contract? Of course not. Holliday only used in context of offense.

        Reply
    • darkstar61

      4 years ago

      .319/.387/.550/.936, 131 OPS+ – Holliday as Rockie (6 years, aged 24 to 28)

      .293/.380/.494/.874, 138 OPS+ – Holliday as Cardinal (8 years, aged 29 to 36)

      Did his baselines go down? Of course. Was he worse though? …nope, he actually hit better in his older ages while in StL than he did in his youth with Colorado

      The Cardinals know full well the stadium helps less where he’s going than where he’s coming from. But he continues to posts OPS+ numbers like he has in Colorado, with the glove he has, they’ll be happy

      4
      Reply
    • stan lee the manly

      4 years ago

      You clearly didn’t read the article. Hollidays home numbers dropped, but his away numbers skyrocketed because he was used to seeing normal breaking pitches again. It more than made up for the loss of the Coors advantage.

      Reply
    • Stromalama 2

      4 years ago

      He’ll also be playing on the road more often in hitter friendly parks like Chicago, Cincy and Milwaukee. The numbers will mostly even out. He won’t hit as well as he did in Coors but he also won’t be as low as he was in LA, Arizona and San Diego.

      Reply
  15. ni300ne

    4 years ago

    What an embarrassment from the Rockies. The owner will sign off on paying another team $50M to take the greatest player in his franchises history and will receive a couple of average prospects. And he will now have the leagues worst farm system and the worst roster in MLB according to Fangraphs. Not to mention the fact the owner and GM were the only team to not even address the media after last season. What a bunch of incompetent cowards.

    4
    Reply
  16. DarkSide830

    4 years ago

    i thought the same thing when i heard

    Reply
  17. themed

    4 years ago

    Arenado is the absolute best third baseman in the game today on both sides of the ball. He’ll be a great Cardinal no question about it. A great fit for a great organization.

    Reply
  18. Bill walsh

    4 years ago

    Playing the Cubs 16. . ? Times will make Cubs, after watching Arenado, realize how far Vryant has fallen

    1
    Reply
  19. DarkSide830

    4 years ago

    thought of Holliday as soon as I heard he was headed to the Cards.

    Reply
  20. Hew Hefty

    4 years ago

    Arenado is not the best defensive 3rd basemen of his generation, Matt Chapman is.

    Reply
  21. Vizionaire

    4 years ago

    yeah, cards only develop their own? yeah, right!

    Reply
    • themed

      4 years ago

      More than a third of the current roster was home grown. Correct!

      Reply
  22. C-Daddy

    4 years ago

    Maybe I’m confused, but I thought stats like OPS+, wRC+, etc. take the hitter’s ballpark into account. So irrespective of where he plays, Arenado’s offensive production should remain the same, at least for the next few years while he’s in his prime?

    1
    Reply
    • C-Daddy

      4 years ago

      To clarify: if he has a 130 OPS+ playing at Coors, shouldn’t we expect a 130 OPS+ playing in St. Louis? I realize his counting stats will likely be worse.

      Reply
      • darkstar61

        4 years ago

        Yes. And we should

        Holliday continued to play as he had prior. Bsse numbers went down because of the change of course, but production relative to situation wise, he was exactly the same

        He should be expected to post similar OPS+ numbers in StL …which basically puts him as being qround prime (pre collapse) Matt Carpenter range, I guess?

        2
        Reply
        • C-Daddy

          4 years ago

          So it’s a heist for the Cardinals considering the Rockies are throwing in $50M and not getting top prospects back. I’m not sure why some Cards fans are complaining.

          2
          Reply
        • baseballpun

          4 years ago

          To justify their Mo-hate.

          Reply
        • darkstar61

          4 years ago

          Well, it is about 25 million a year for 6 years to a guy off an ideally fluke season

          But yes. If he stays around 130-135 OPS+ with that Def, I’m sure they’ll be thrilled

          Giving up little is to expected because of the high salary though, I imagine. Market value is calculated into all deals by front offices now, finally

          1
          Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        4 years ago

        Arenado’s nowhere near a 130 OPS+ (or wRC+) hitter. He did that once or twice at his peak, but he’s a career 118 guy, coming off his worst season (all 2020 caveats noted) and likely to start slowly declining. He’s not Matt Holliday at all. Holliday was one of the great pure hitters of his generation, and Nolan’s not that. If you’re only looking at offense and comparing to other Rockies, he’s about Charlie Blackmon. The Cards are buying more the glove than the bat.

        1
        Reply
        • darkstar61

          4 years ago

          “Arenado’s nowhere near a 130 OPS+ (or wRC+) hitter. He did that once or twice at his peak”

          He’s been at 129+ OPS+ in 4 of the last 5 seasons, with only last years fluke partial year being the exception

          Or better yet, comparing the last 6 seasons of Arenado to the 6 years of Holliday in Colorado

          .298/.359/.567/.926, 127 OPS+ – Arenado
          .319/.387/.550/.936, 131 OPS+ – Holliday

          As you can see, even with the poor 2020, Arenado is very similar to Holliday with the bat

          3
          Reply
        • seamaholic 2

          4 years ago

          Sorry, I meant wRC+. OPS+ is not a useful stat. Holliday’s wRC+ for his career was 135. Arenado’s so far is 118 and probably isn’t going up. That’s a massive difference. 135 is Mookie Betts. 118 is Starling Marte. Nothing against Starling.

          Reply
        • darkstar61

          4 years ago

          I’m sorry too, but it honestly doesn’t seem you know what you’re talking about

          Arenado last 5 full seasons (2015-2019)
          .300/.362/.575, .387 wOBA, 128 wRC+

          Including a 129 wRC+ or better in the 3 most recent (2017, 18 & 19)

          You keep quoting the “career” mark but seem oblivious to the fact his low OPS+/wRC+ numbers are from his first couple seasons …and that’s because he entered the league at just 22 years old (Holliday did so at 24)

          BTW, notice the wRC+ is not really different than the OPS+ is? Thats because they’re basically the same exact stat, with only a very minor adjustment difference. (Arenado is at a 129 OPS+ over the 5, merely 1 point higher than the wRC+) So you can trash that “I meant wRC+. OPS+ is not a useful stat” garbage

          Lastly,
          Arenado age 24-28 – 27.0 WAR
          Holliday age 24-28 – 20.2 WAR
          Starling age 24-28 – 17.2 WAR
          As you can see, it’s actually Holliday that is much closer in value to Starling, while Arenado sits at the 8th best in MLB over those 5 seasons (and less than 1 WAR off 3rd place)

          Reply
    • Stromalama 2

      4 years ago

      It’ll probably come down some but not as much as some people here who only look at counting stats think. He’ll also be playing in more hitter friendly parks within the central more often than the pitcher friendly parks in the West. His numbers will dip a bit but not much.

      Reply
  23. Natsfan133

    4 years ago

    I like Arenado but I too am concerned with his ability to hit outside of Coors. For the last 2 full seasons, 2018 and 2019, Arenado’s batting average was about 0,085 points better at home than on the road! Thats huge. That takes a 0,250 hitter to 0.335. Wow! Now I know batting average is not popular now but it does tell you something. And the same trend shows in OPS. I’m not saying Arenado is a bad offensive player but he’s an All Star in Coors but not elewhere. Of course LeMahieu showed similar splits while at Coors but is doing just fine with the Yankees. Some players feel more comfortable and hit better at home. So that could always be the reason for the differences. I still think Arenado is a gamble away for Coors.

    Reply
  24. themed

    4 years ago

    I’ve written 2 well thought out interesting replies to this article can someone explain to me why they have not been posted? Thank you

    Reply
  25. Matt Stairsway to Heaven

    4 years ago

    Lol what is this Headline

    Reply
  26. Excillon

    4 years ago

    “The best defensive 3B of this generation” -MLBTR

    “Hold my beer”- Matt Chapman

    Reply
  27. Strunk Flugget

    4 years ago

    Yeah it’s just Paul and Nolan and the boys hanging at Yadi’s place for some Mario Kart and Tequila…

    Reply
  28. doxiedevil

    4 years ago

    Hope it helps both teams, Cardinal fans are some of the most knowledgeable / appreciative in baseball ( I’m a Braves fan of 62 years. ) so Arenado is going to a good place.

    3
    Reply
  29. letsholdemandgohome

    4 years ago

    Everyone keeps saying the Cardinals didn’t give up anything, but Gomber is a good left handed pitcher. I hate to lose him but you have to give up something to get something. That’s the way it works most usually.

    3
    Reply
  30. stymeedone

    4 years ago

    I still haven’t heard what St.Louis gave up. Hard to say whether the deal is fair until it is announced.

    1
    Reply
    • headhawks

      4 years ago

      1B Luken Baker, OF Jhon Torres. And either pitcher rondon or Wofford

      Reply
      • headhawks

        4 years ago

        Plus Gomber…as the main current MLB player

        Reply
  31. PiratesFan1981

    4 years ago

    With the NL Central being “open”, Cards are my favorite to win the division. Cubs sold. Reds did nothing. Brewers did nothing. Pirates are irrelevant, but sold. It’s Cards division to lose right now

    1
    Reply
  32. Deadguy

    4 years ago

    Good article. Arenado and Goldschmidt will represent something the Cardinals haven’t had since 2013 really. 2 players who can provide thunder in the middle of the line up. With the speed the Cardinals have this trade changes there offensive output. Id think Arenado makes them a 95+ win team if they stay healthy.

    Reply
  33. larry48

    4 years ago

    Cards will get swept in the first round of the playoff again if they make it. They suck, have poor starting pitching and relief pitching. They are a really poor hitting team in 2019 and 2020.

    Reply
    • dmarcus15

      4 years ago

      In 19 they were one game from the NLCS weren’t they?

      Reply
  34. larry48

    4 years ago

    Cards will get swept in the first round of the playoff again if they make it. They suck, have poor starting pitching and relief pitching. They are a really poor hitting team in 2019 and 2020. But why when they need so much?

    Reply
    • cards81

      4 years ago

      You could question the starting rotation, which is still better than most teams, but the Bullpen is fine and will be tough to beat

      3
      Reply
    • baseballpun

      4 years ago

      Their pitching is fine. Certainly better than anyone in the division. The rotation is behind other teams on papers but I’d rather role the dice in a short series than not try and even make the playoffs.

      I will never, ever understand the view from some fans that if a team isn’t top-3 on paper they shouldn’t even try to win. The Cards try to win the division every year. That should be the goal of every team. This trade makes them the favorites to win the division. If you don’t want other teams to try and win, just skip the whole season and let the Dodgers play seven against the Padres or whatever.

      4
      Reply
    • Lanidrac

      4 years ago

      What poor starting and relief pitching?! Flaherty is a legitimate ace, Kim did pretty well in his first season in the U.S. last year, and the other 3 projected rotation members are former All-Stars who could be anywhere from decent to great. Behind them, Ponce de Leon is a decent swingman, and Reyes still has a ton of potential.

      Meanwhile, the bullpen was excellent and the team’s biggest strength last year and is essentially just trading Brebbia for the return of Hicks.

      2
      Reply
      • SimbaHOF2019

        4 years ago

        They also have maybe the deepest stable of good pitchers in all of baseball. Making the playoffs last year was a minor miracle and was completely due to there pitching depth.
        I dont think any team in history played under more adversity than the Cards and Marlins last year.

        Reply
      • seamaholic 2

        4 years ago

        Flaherty had one good year and one great one, then stunk the joint up last year to the tune of a 5 ERA and below league average ERA+. He wouldn’t be the first guy to set the world on fire early in his career, only to have the league figure him out. I’d be careful counting that particular chicken. You’re doing what all fans do: Assuming all the guys coming off bad years will regress positively, and assuming all the guys coming off good years will not regress. Not a great bet. It’s a weak rotation.

        Reply
    • Cardsfan1981

      4 years ago

      I don’t understand anything you just said. Do you even watch the team?

      Reply
    • themed

      4 years ago

      Uh they were not swept in the first round last year. Can we at least state the facts correctly?

      Reply
  35. jaytai7918

    4 years ago

    Will be the best all around corners in the game with Goldy.

    Reply
  36. glassml

    4 years ago

    Who will be playing 3b for the Rockies?

    Reply
  37. steelehere83

    4 years ago

    Funny, I thought this article was going to be about Larry Walker instead of Matt Holliday.

    Reply

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