Yesterday, it was somewhat surprising to see the White Sox come to terms with Carlos Rodón – their No. 3 overall pick turned non-tender. It’s boilerplate for teams to suggest “staying in touch” with their non-tenders, but it’s not often that someone of Rodón’s draft pedigree actually re-signs, especially for a team as all-in on 2021 as the White Sox. In most cases, the player is better off getting a fresh look with a different organization, but with new manager Tony La Russa bringing Ethan Katz to provide a fresh voice as the pitching coach, Rodón gets much of that same benefit without the hassle of a move, writes the Athletic’s James Fegan. Given the stakes of the season at hand, it’s safe to assume the White Sox think Rodón can hang in the rotation, giving him the inside track on landing the fifth starter spot behind Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel, and Dylan Cease. Let’s circle up here in the AL Central…
- Before signing perennial Gold Glove shortstop Andrelton Simmons, the Twins consulted with Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez about the move, tweets the Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. Since both Polanco and Arraez stand to be displaced from their expected roles, the Twins were wise to secure their buy-in. Still, it’s a courtesy they didn’t have to observe. Polanco has been the team’s regular shortstop for most of the past four seasons. As for Arraez, projection systems from THE BAT X to Steamer to ZiPS forecast Arraez to lead the Majors in batting average, as pointed out on the Athletic’s Rates and Barrels podcast. While it’s not the 1990’s anymore, it’s still surprising to push a potential batting champ out of a regular role. That said, we tend to overrate the starting lineup on opening day, and underrate the impact and opportunity that exists for players in “bench” roles.
- Now that J.T. Realmuto, James McCann, and (unofficially) Yadier Molina are all off the market, Salvador Pérez can begin to imagine his own free agency a year from now. The Kansas City staple hasn’t spoken with the Royals about an extension, though he’s on the record saying he’d like to retire a Royal, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. Pérez fell off the map while missing the 2019 season, but he bounced back in a big way during the shortened 2020 season by slashing .333/.353/.633 over 156 plate appearances. It’s easy to imagine the Royals quietly extending their MVP from the 2015 World Series, but if he has anywhere near as productive a season this year as last, there may be legitimate competition for his services. Lest we forget exactly how highly-regarded Pérez was as the game manager of the Royals’ competitive run from 2013 to 2017, he made six All-Star games, won three Silver Sluggers and five Gold Glove Awards. He’ll have wrapped his age-31 season when he hits free agency after 2021.
If healthy expect better from Rodon and Cease also and the new pitching coach will be the reason.
Oh, ok Pete, thanks. Sure thing, lol.
But again, I always thought all you sox fans, thought Dr Don Cooper was the absolute greatest thing, since sliced bread.
Wrong again dogbone. All Cooper did was get fat and take up more space on the bench.
I liked Cooper at first, but he seemed to phone it in the last few years. The young prospects were struggling under him. Even Giolito sucked until he went back to Katz. It was time to say goodbye. The Katz hire may end up being the best move the Sox made this offseason (that or Hendriks).
It’s kinda hard to imagine Salvy going anywhere. I’m assuming they’ll re-sign him to a 3-4 year extension worth around 10m per year. With his injuries and declining skills (aside from a babip fueled short 2020) I don’t see him getting much more than that. But with Dayton wanting to be on the backend of the rebuild and no clear-cut guy to take his place, I’m sure he’ll be around for a while.
Zero chance at 10 million per.
Lol 10 mill a year what are u smoking? Will be closer to 20 deff 15-20 range at least.
It’s very hard to see Perez as anything but a KC Royal. I agree. Hope he signs for 4-5 years and ends his career in Kansas City.
4 years $60 million is probably more like it
For a catcher in his age 32_35 seasons and his injury history? Not likely.
Perez is one of the few Catchers who can actually hit so he can transition to DH if necessary. $15 million per seaaon is not breaking the bank, even for the Royals
Even $15 million a year would probably be considered a strong hometown discount. In a non-COVID world, he could very well demand $18-20 million per. Dude is that good.
Salvador Perez is a very overrated hitter. He has only had an OPS above .800 twice. He did it in his rookie year where he played 39 games, and he did it in 2020 with only 37 games played. Both years were small samples and had BABIPs more than 80 points above his career average. In every full season, Salvador Perez has been an above average hitter for a catcher, but he has never been a great hitter.
He won’t be getting more money than James Mccann unless the Royals give him a legacy contract.
He is a better hitter and defender than McCann and they are the exact same age. The only way he won’t get more money is if his agent is completely incompetent.
To compare stats; Perez IS worth $18+.
McCann has had 2 decent years compared to Perez GG + AS + some MPV votes.
Given the Royals history Perez gets a legacy contract of some form. That’s a VERY Royals thing to do…goes back to the lifetime contract thing Brett and some others had…down to Alex Gordon. Salvador Perez is a regional icon. I have a hard time seeing him going anywhere. The Chiefs even use him in marketing.
Teams don’t pay players for past performance. Teams pay players for what they will do in the future. Mccann is coming off of two very good years(both offensively and defensively) and is 30 years old. Perez will be 31 when he is a free agent, and although he has been a much better player than Mccann for his entire career, he is slightly worse right now.
Like I said in my first comment, it is entirely possible that the Royals offer him a sizable legacy contract to ensure that he retires as a Royal. He has had a great career for the Royals, so it would make sense for them to keep him. However, another team looking for a catcher wouldn’t be
“Teams don’t pay players for past performance”
Says the fan of a team that paid Eric Hosmer 144M.
Perez is getting at least 18 maybe 20M a year on his next deal unless he takes a ridiculous discount for KC
18-20 mil a year? Where do you people come up with this stuff? It’s no wonder you guys get duped into owners collusion narratives by Boras and the media. You guys live so far from reality it’s not even funny.
If that’s his asking price, the Royals should let him test the market next winter.
He was to get $14m(prorated) in 20′.
He’s not taking less than that. Considering he’s good on both sides of the plate.
With JT get $23+…..Perez will be looking for more than $14m.
Yea I see at least 15-20 aav
“That said, given the stakes of the season at hand, it’s safe to assume the White Sox think Rodón can hang in the rotation, giving him the inside track on landing the fifth starter spot”
Ummm, Michael Kopech?
Kopech hasn’t pitched in a competitive game since 2018. They can’t build a team with the assumption that he’ll be productive.
And who knows… maybe his cat will look at him wrong and Kopech will need to opt out for a season.
I’m liking the Rodon signing the more I think about it. Even if he doesn’t crack the rotation, he could still be a valuable piece to the bullpen. Obviously his problem is staying healthy. I think if he can stay healthy, he can put up a good season. I ignore his numbers last season, that was an absolute mess driven mainly by (surprise) injuries.
Worst case scenario, they cut ties with him. At $3MM, no big deal there.
If the rotation still needs help in July (i.e. Kopech doesn’t pan out yet), go for a deadline trade.
McCann just got 4 for $40.6m.
Perez is worth more. Even if he gave KC a hometown disc, they’d have to pony up something like 4 for $60-70m(15-17yr)
Perez has to follow it up with a solid 2021.
Batting average is luck-based, its utterly ridiculous to try and claim someone as a batting title frontrunner. Unless you are Ichiro, BABIP will always be there to wreck or boost all players batting averages.
Modern metrics sure do lead the pack away from reality. A pure hitter is a pure hitter. BABIP needs to be interpreted as an after the fact stat. It has no predictive value. It’s like saying the last flip of the coin was heads so the next flip is more likely to be tails. BABIP screws up lots of analysis since it is interpreted incorrectly.
Batting average is not luck it’s the science of putting the bat on the ball and having the ball go to a location where there are no players. Shifts are used to lower the luck that you profess is batting average. Shifts are nothing more than a changing opportunity for the hitter to place the ball between players in new locations.
Bad hops are luck. Wind blown pop-ups for singles are luck. An outstanding hitter is an outstanding hitter no matter what BABIP says about a season. Remember, you are talking probabilities not certainties when you talk about BABIP.
BABIP can also be swayed by small sample sizes. BABIP seems to be one of the stats that everyone uses but doesn’t have a good or full understanding of. Ovbisously, if you have a super high BABIP reaching into the .400’s, then you’ll likely see a bit of regression and you’ll likely see some improvement if a batter has a BABIP below .250. FanGraphs puts it best in their article about it: “For hitters, you typically want to adjust your expectations toward that player’s career average rather than league average. Batters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers do, which is another way of saying that a higher percentage of batter BABIP is controlled by actual talent levels. It’s certainly possible for hitters to improve their offensive game and raise their BABIP, but short, dramatic spikes are usually due to luck.”
library.fangraphs.com/offense/babip/
In Arraez’s case, his BABIP throughout the majors is .354 while it sat at .358 in the minors. If he’s hitting good, he’s always going to have a high BABIP. Just how it works. Now if all of a sudden Joey Gallo started putting up a similar mark in 2021 after having a career .270 mark from 2015 to present, then regression may be in the cards.
Mlb1225 you’ve got be one of the best users on this site. You do a wonderful job using stats and explaining them.
MLB11225, you’re correct. And there’s a lot of players who will have obviously high BABIPs. People interested should go look into xBABIP, and it gives a good understanding of how BABIP changes based on the hitting approach/capabilities, among other factors, in a player.
A .395 BABIP for Luis Arraez, to use your example, is the same as a .311 BABIP for Gallo. Although, there’s certainly a “ceiling” for BABIP. It’s FAR more likely that Gallo will sustain a .311 BABIP year-over-year than it is that Arraez will sustain a .395.
The point is, BABIP is one of the simpler indicators of how a player might rebound or come back to earth each season.
It’s certainly not the end-all, be-all, but it’s more telling than a lot of fans care to admit.
BABIP is very predictive, and it’s done so by design.
Donovan Solano, for example, has a .403 BABIP during his time in San Francisco. Nearly anyone with two brain cells can tell you: he’s not sustaining that.
For the White Sox fans in the room: you’ll remember Avisail Garcia had a.392 BABIP back in 2017, and hasn’t ever come near repeating what he did then.
Or think about Yoan Moncada. In 2019, he had a .406 BABIP, and to literally no one’s surprise, he regressed quite a bit in 2020 with a .315 BABIP.
Stat trends are very real, and GMs and front offices recognize those trends. They understand regression to the mean, and all can understand when a stat is unsustainable.
Will EVERY player with a bloated BABIP in 2020 regress in 2021? No. Some will take a little longer. Some will show that a change in their hitting approach helped them… but the trends are clear: if the player’s BABIP is 40,50, or 60+ points higher than a player’s career average, you should expect serious regression.
Arraez didn’t set the world on fire last year, he actually slumped pretty hard in the first half. He’s a contact hitter with a short compact swing with a good eye for walks. If he’s hitting, I have very little doubt Baldelli will keep him out of the lineup. You need lineup flexibility to get through righty/lefty matchups throughout the year. As I see it, Arraez could play a critical role next season!
Rodon over Kopech in the rotation?
(my previous comment is stuck awaiting moderation)
The White Sox aren’t “all-in” for 2021. They just want you to think that. They play in the Chicago market, and they just spent 3 years with payrolls near the bottom of the league, yet they can’t muster a payroll above $120 million. You should really call that what it really is: a joke.
They’re definitely ‘mostly in’ and what they’re holding back isn’t so much about the money as trying to hold onto a longer competitive window. If they signed a Nelson Cruz it would help in 2021 but it would block Vaughn and perhaps hurt his development, not to mention burn cash that they might need for keeping guys like Giolito who will hopefully be productive in 2022 and beyond. Same for getting another starter. Rodon was a cheap flyer on a guy that could well wind up a swing man. They still don’t know what they have in Kopech and if Cease can take another step either. They need to see them pitch and if any of those aren’t working out they can always add something at the deadline.
ChiSox payroll will escalate when guys enter arbitration in a year or two.
I love how the roster came together for the White Sox. Hahn has done a masterful job. I won’t lie, though. Signing Nelson Cruz to a short-term contract would be epic. Fortunately, the Sox have numerous in-house options to handle DH (Abreu, Grandal, Jimenez, Mercedes, Collins (meh), and Vaughn. I’m more concerned about Eaton playing RF everyday. The Sox really need to find a reliable option for RF, preferably someone with some thunder in their bat. We already have guys for the top of the order (Anderson, Madrigal) who can get in base and run well). Bringing Colome back on a club friendly would be incredible too. La Russa would have the deepest bullpen and hitting lineup at his disposal for a playoff run. Get your tickets and your popcorn ready Sox fans!
5/85 for Sal with some deferment and I would imagine the last 2 years of the deal will be more in a DH role. I’m guessing the hope is Soler will have a good enough season at DH to garner at least some kind of return at the deadline but preferably a comp pick if he repeats 2019, then I’m guessing that for the next 2 seasons for Franchy to assume that role until his free agency departure, only to have Salvy step into that role the last years of his pact.
It would be nice if that path works out…
Long-term planning for the DH role is like prioritizing ‘Chance’ in the game of Yahtzee.
Both Polanco and Simmons had ankle issues last year, and we know about JD’s calf too. Arraez can cover 1B too – so he will have plenty of playing time. Actually, he wasn’t at 100% either last year come to think of it. Class move by Baldelli to keep Polanco and Arraez informed of plans going forward.
My bad – assumed Baldelli, but more likely Twins FO. Either way, a class move.
KC has some great young pitching coming up. Very valuable to have a top shelf veteran catcher to work them into the majors. And he is also a force at the plate. With Singer, Bubic, Lacy (eventually) entering the SP rotation it should be reasonable to lock Perez at $50M/3 or $60M/4, especially with that stellar pitching so cheap and controllable.
CLASS move by Twins management to run this change past both Polanco and Arraez BEFORE the transaction took place. As stated, they did not have to. In doing so, it shows their high regard for people as human beings and keeps the club house in harmony.
Well said Nent, my first thoughts as well upon reading
Article says Yadi is off the market. Gotta admit I missed he part where he committed anywhere. I’ve heard rumors he is close to returning to STL but no confirmation. Did I miss something?
Where does Kopech for into that White Sox rotation?
AAA unless he sets the world on fire in spring training. He’s had zero competitive experience since 2018.
He did pitch in Spring training last year with his fastball clocked at over 100mph… what does set the world on fire in Spring Training mean? Unless it’s a contract/service time control situation, I don’t understand why he would need more seasoning in the minors
now sign Mazara for low money. He was tough in the clutch with men on base. He had one off year. 4 years of 20 home runs and a .260 average. low money , nothing to lose. Worth the gamble even though its not popular with most fans. he could be a steal
Sox already have Eaton, who’s just better. Even Engel is better. Mazara is a slightly below league average hitter even excluding last year. No reason to waste a roster spot on him. I’m not even happy about wasting a spot on Rodon. He has the talent, but that talent doesn’t do you any good if you spend more time on the DL than the active roster.
Hard to imagine Perez in another uniform. And Royals will give him a market deal. He only leaves if another team significantly overpays.