10:45am: The Cardinals are indeed in the market for Odorizzi, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
10:25am: The Phillies and Cardinals are among the clubs who are still active in the free-agent market for starting pitchers, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. Among the starters being considering are James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi and Taijuan Walker. The Phils have already made some modestly priced additions to their rotation mix, signing Matt Moore ($3MM) and Chase Anderson ($4MM) to one-year deals, but they’re likely to vie for innings at the back of the rotation and perhaps even in long relief. Any of Paxton, Odorizzi or Walker would surely be a set-in-stone member of the starting staff, health permitting.
Those two clubs aren’t alone in their exploration of this market, however. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that the Blue Jays are also looking at free-agent starters in this tier, noting that the club seems to prefers to keep investments in the starting staff to one year. That’d likely rule out Odorizzi, who is known to be seeking a multi-year arrangement. The Sportsnet report indicates Jays interest in both Walker and Paxton but characterizes Toronto’s current level of interest in Odorizzi as “unclear.”
As for the Cardinals, jumping into this mix would deepen a group that currently includes Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Martinez and Kwang Hyun Kim. Lefty Genesis Cabrera and righties Jake Woodford and Daniel Ponce de Leon are on hand as depth options as well.
Still, Mikolas didn’t pitch last year due to a flexor strain that required surgery, and Martinez’s standing in the organization has seemingly diminished. He’s oscillated between the bullpen and rotation in recent years. Adding an established starter is plenty sensible, and the Cards look to have suddenly awakened from a dormant offseason in the past week, acquiring Nolan Arenado and re-signing Wainwright.
Any of the three pitchers in question would serve as logical upgrades for this group of teams, but there’s some cause for pause as well. The Phillies, notably, are about $11MM shy of the $210MM luxury tax threshold. There’s been no indication yet that owner John Middleton is willing to cross that mark, which has seemingly come to serve as a de facto salary cap for MLB owners this winter. Even if the Phils could secure one of the three pitchers in question for an annual commitment south of $11MM, doing so wouldn’t leave much room for in-season acquisitions.
The Blue Jays aren’t anywhere close to the luxury barrier, but Davidi and Nicholson-Smith suggest they’re also wary of adding so many veteran options that it impedes the path to innings for younger arms like Anthony Kay and Julian Merryweather. Toronto currently has Matz, Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling as possible rotation pieces slated for the Opening Day roster, and there are several arms on the 40-man roster in Triple-A.
As such, some in the industry expect the Jays to look to move the remainder of Roark’s contract, per Nicholson-Smith and Davidi. He’s owed $12MM this year, and while it’s unlikely they could convince another club to pay the full freight of that deal, it’s possible he could be movable with the Jays eating some cash or taking on a different contract in return.
With regard to the Cardinals, it’s worth wondering the extent to which ownership is willing to spend. They surely have some money earmarked for their hopeful reunion with Yadier Molina, and despite ample speculation about shuffling their outfield mix, the status quo remains in place. Then again, with the Rockies incredibly agreeing to pay all of Arenado’s $35MM salary this season, the Cards appear to have the payroll capacity to bring Molina back and still explore upgrades in the rotation and/or in the outfield. In its current state, the roster is projected for a roughly $138MM payroll (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez) with just shy of $150MM in luxury-tax obligations.
The asking price of all three pitchers matters, of course. Such parameters can vary as Spring Training nears, but as of late January, Odorizzi was reportedly still in search of a three-year deal that’d pay him $12-14MM annually. SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson said in his podcast two weeks ago (audio link, around the 9:30 mark) that the Twins believed Paxton to be seeking a one-year deal in the $12MM range.
There hasn’t been much reported on Walker’s asking price, but he’d surely have a case for a multi-year deal given his age and solid results in 2020 — his first healthy season since Tommy John surgery in 2018. He’s something of an interesting case, however, as there are arguments for him to take either a one-year pact or a multi-year deal this winter. At 28, he could take a one-year pact to further prove his health and look to cash in on a long-term deal next winter when he’s still a relatively young free agent entering his age-29 season. At the same time, the security of any multi-year deal would be appealing for a pitcher whose 2018-19 seasons were almost entirely wiped out due to injury.
id consider Odo or Walker if the price is right and we can ship out VV. not trying to get that close to the cap even before adding another proven RP or two.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Why would Philly care if they go over the first CBT threshold, @DarkSide 830? They’d be a first time offender. Their fine would be a pittance.
32.5% on any amount over $210 MM. So even if they “blow” past it by ten mil, their actual penalty would = 3.25 MM. Now, I don’t mean to be cavalier in regards to a few million bucks. It’s not like that around here.
But the Phillies are still in a precarious spot. They could easily miss the postseason with the squad they’d currently run out there. A playoff series is essentially worth ~ $20 mil in real, actual, immediate cash.
So a fine of a couple million dollars in that light starts to actually make fiscal sense.
My take anyway. Keep VV. Sign another starter. Sign another reliever. Phillies need to add.
@Ducky The thinking is, you don’t go over the lux tax unless you’re a playoff team. The Phillies aren’t necessarily that. They certainly will be in the wildcard mix, but they have too many question marks to be on the Braves level. I didn’t mention the Mets because they haven’t earned anything yet, but they certainly look like a playoff team.
VonPurpleHayes, it’s a bit of a chicken an and egg situation. If you don’t try to get better and contend than you won’t. The Mets were fringe contenders and they upped their spending. The Phillies should do similar and add to the starting rotation and the bullpen.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Man, @VonPurpleHayes –
that NL East is a dog fight, though. Braves still the champs. Mets are making huge strides. (While somehow continuing to lolMets, uh.)
Washington is trying & competitive.
The Marlins are trying & competitive.
I guess I just don’t see why that’s necessarily the best thought process. They’re already bumping up against 210.
Yanks are bugging me with this, too. But in Hal’s “defense” the Yanks look like more of a sure thing. Phillies don’t. But they’re close!
Wouldn’t take much from here to see them in the thick of things. Sometimes spending money does lead to making it. I see your point. But – again – playoff series are really valuable in immediate revenues for clubs.
Remember how KC & Cleveland were pretty big off-season spenders following their pennant winning (& World Series) seasons? Playoffs are real money to MLB clubs, man.
A bit of a gamble in Philly’s case. Pretty good payoff if it hits though.
@lord99 I agree. And I do think the Phillies are in a situation where they need to spend. They’ve failed to develop enough talent to surround the very-talented core. You need to spend as to not waste Harper, Realmuto, Hoskins, Nola and Wheeler in their prime.
@Ducky I’m with you man. And I was extremely frustrated when it sounded like the Phillies weren’t going to spend. But getting JTR and Didi proves they’re not giving up. I just hope they can get one of these 3 starters. It’d go a long way to improving their rotation and by extension the bullpen.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Look at what’s still left. There are ~ 25 top 50 free agents & honorable mentions *unsigned* yet.
If the Yanks would “just” spend another 15-20 mil they could reposition themselves as AL favorites. We’re not as strong of a club as we were. No other way to say it.
But – as is – Yankees probably playing postseason baseball, uh. So pretty good chance Yanks are about done adding for the year. (sucks, but it is what it is, uh?)
Phils in a similar place. A little more & they’re legitimate playoff contenders. Ya know?
Add Pax, Melancon, bring back Alvarez. That’s what? 20 mil AAV? Tax hit of 3-4 mil.
It’s also a squad that it’s not hard to see winning 90 games, or so.
But you guys are spending & you brought a big money GM in. If I were a Phillies fan I’d be hopeful that they’re not done yet. As an outsider I’d be surprised if they stood pat from here.
Mate, what’s/who’s left that you would want the Yanks to spend $$$ on?
First time I’ve seen anyone mention bringing back Alvarez. Good for you. Seems like a no-brainer and almost surely would be at a reasonable price.
If the Braves don’t resign Ozuna they are a third place team
Ducky, you make a good point. Considering how many pitcher injuries there were for the Philllies last year, you’d think Odorizzi would be the more desirable of the three.
Then add another RP. I thought last year would have the front office very focused on pitching depth.
Ducky, I posted a similar thought below. The Phillies shouldn’t be concerned about going over as first-time offenders, especially since the MLBPA will target significantly increasing the thresholds in 2022. They’ll sink right back under in one year.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Yeah, we’re echoing each other on this. Phils are close. Why get all frugal now.
Shouldn’t this be where Dumbrowski shines? That man can spend money. He also gets his teams over the hump.
Seems like penny wise pound foolish stuff.
…and perhaps that’s what DD intends. There is an argument to be made that waiting out the talent pool and signing players and making trades weeks before Spring Training is a defensible strategy. See what your competition is doing and not doing and then make moves late since decent talent is still available. The Cardinals may be doing this right now.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Like Duquette used to do with Baltimore. Just sign whomever was left. I think GM’s that can do that this spring are going to mop up.
i think Middleton would rather wait another year after the mess of the past year.
Exactly. I have never understood why any big market team would be afraid of the tax. The only amount taxed is what goes over the limit. For example the Phillies sign both Odorizzi and Walker which costs them $22m (roughly) against the tax. That would put them about $11m over add on another $9m for in season pick ups. That puts them $20m over for the year. $7m in taxes seems negligible for your #3 and #4 starters who will get starts in the playoffs (if healthy) plus the missing pieces picked up mid season. I don’t see how a team that gave Harper, Wheeler, and Realmuto their contracts would balk at $7m for their missing pieces. If they are that worried about it they can package a decent prospect with McCutchen and send him to a team like the Giants. They could sign both pitchers which would give them a very solid rotation and still have a little room for mid season additions. It just doesn’t make sense to spend all the money they have so far only to attempt to make the postseason with that rotation. What happens if Wheeler’s arm falls off again? They will be attempting to find a new #2 off the scrap heap or by getting robbed in a trade when they can get 2 solid #3 pitchers now. Signing both but at least one makes a ton of sense. They should avoid Paxton though. They already have one glass arm in Wheeler. Girardi would be popping rolaids like tic tacs every time either of em throws a pitch.
I’d pay 3/$40 for Odorizzi in St. Louis, now that Yadi’s back, and at the same time on just a one year deal. https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2021/02/cards-resign-yadi-on-safe-one-year-deal.html
I’m a Cards fan and I hope they snag odo(for the right price of course). I just don’t put as much stock in 2020 as some. He was a solid starter who had a slight down year but with the way spring training went down, the restart, and the shortened season can now much stock can we put into 2020. Not to mention he will likely have to take a discounted rate in 2021. He doesn’t come with the huge health concerns. Not risk free(most aren’t)but with a weak central I say go for it.
its probably already their division to lose, unless the Brewers swoop in and sign Bauer or something. Reds and Cubs have put themselves out of the race and I think Arenado will be able to outperform Wong by a decent margain this year. one also notes the Crew lost Brett Anderson, which isnt a ground shaking move but they have to cover those starts somehow. (speaking of which, what’s his market like?)
I would love to see the Cards sign him, but I don’t think they’ll spend the money.
How are the Angels not in on any of these guys!?
because they need durability, not glass cannons with how frequently arms get totaled there.
Darkside, you think they need durability, but with a six man staff and Barria, Sandoval, Detmer and Suarez in waiting, I think they need upside.
What good is adding a Cobb or a Quintana when the replacement value is negligible?
I think they should have bet on the upside, because whatever they get from Cobb or Quintana is going to be less than what you get out of Paxton/Barria.
Im of the mindest that the best options are internal. I like Barria and Sandoval but for the secpnd straight year now they are being blocked unless they employ a 6 man rotation. (which they could do but obviously still has to be determined) My point is fairly clear on this. instead of throwing money at glass cannons or Quintana types they need to follow the common model. build from within, suppliment the young guys with durable options, then strike for an ace when you can a la SD. the current model hasnt and wolnt work. what they needed to do was move on from Heaney, make a play for someone with a little more of a ceiling then Quintana, then maybe make a play for a Cobb or Roark type but take on a little more money rather then giving up a real asset for them.
The Angels are employing a sixth man rotation.
Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Ohtani, Cobb and Quintana.
Chief Two Hands
Because the Angels enjoy seeing that question being asked every year for some reason.
Odorizzi is the “safest” bet to give innings. Paxton the highest upside, although even when healthy he’s a 25 start, 150 inning guy. Walker? I’d stay far away unless it’s almost all incentive based.
Ducky Buckin Fent
I think Pax is pretty much the luxury model of Rich Hill at this point.
Try to get 100-130 regular season innings & some postseason work out of him. His market should be contenders only. Besides the whole Canadian thing, he’d be a good fit on Toronto.
Ryu, Paxton, Pearson could be pretty formidable in a playoff series.
Yeah, in combo with the Jays offense, as a Yankee fan I’d rather not see that. Paxton is tough when healthy. Second half of ’19.
Ducky Buckin Fent
“…as a Yankee fan I’d rather not see that.”
While Hal is fiddling around with his abacus the Jay’s – who handed us our derriere last summer – are continuing to get better.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
Forget the abacus, not dependable – you simply can’t count on it.
Come on Bobby and Ray…. use the billions of dollars you have TO GET A STARTER!
If I’m the Jays I’m trying to trade Roark to a team and offering to attach a low level prospect or pay for majority of the contract and then giving a multi-year deal to Odorizzi.
Philly needs to do this.
I don’t see Philly trading Roark seeing as he isn’t on the team
No, but he is on the Jays which is what the poster was saying…
Yes, but he is on the Jays which is what the poster was saying…
old dodger fan
Only on Wall Street can you sell what you don’t own.
i meant be the team on the receiving enf
Any Jays fans want to propose what level of prospect (names?) could be attached? Pirates of course never have money but they seem a good candidate for having a place for Roark and this off-season is all about adding prospects.
Why would Pit deal prospects for a blah starter to add to their blah 2021 team?
Pirates wouldn’t be dealing a prospect in a Roark deal. They’d be getting a prospect from the Jays to take on Roark’s contract.
What mlb1225 said. So Roark, $2M, and VanEyk? Maybe Pirates send a decent reliever back Rodriguez/Stratton and up the prospect capital coming from BlueJays. I would love for the Pirates to have some ability to take on more of the contract for a better prospect return.
They wouldn’t need to. They would likely get a prospect back or be basically getting him for free and the Pirates would send a complete lotto ticket that probably won’t ever make AAA let alone mlb
No way Jays give up a prospect ranked around 10th in their system to save 10 mill. They are more likely to just eat the contract imo.
Kind of thought that was asking a lot. What type of prospect might sound right? The bad contract for prospect discussions are bantered about but teams rarely do it.
SouthernBuc, a team would have to be willing to take on Roark’s money first and foremost. I don’t see that happening which is why I believe the Jays have to take a bad contract in-return, like a Kimbrel. Cubs need a SP, Jays are looking at more bullpen help with rumours of interest in Trevor Rosenthal.
Hypothetically, if Roark went to the Pirates, Will Crowe maybe? Or, Jays throw in Fisher and the Pirates deal Polanco.
The Jays mgmt value their high end prospects to much to tie one to Roark. Van Eyk is a no go. Have to figure Roark is worth 5 million. If the Jays send 2m. They are basically selling Van Eyk for 5m .
The Jays will pay down and-or take back another contract.
I’d love it if the Blue Jays were able to bring the big maple home or Walker back.
Or sign Bauer and Paxton or Walker, then deal a Kay, a Roark or a Stripling somewhere.
That can compete.
No. Not now. Not ever
Why not? As a paying subscriber I expect a real rebuttal this time.
Why would someone pay to be on a free site like this?
Why not sign Bauer?
Because they’ve already used the bulk of their spending money on Springer and Semien et al. . They may not be close to the tax limit, but they are close to their typical internal spending limit so no Bauer or other big expenditures now..
They aren’t going to give up on Kay this soon, and they just got Stripling late-ish last year.
Paxton or Walker is much more likely though as neither should break the bank.
I Beg To Differ
Is the MLBTR staff crying poor like the owners have been?
Canuckle…Jays need real SP, so spending the “bulk” on a meh player like Semien and a guy they don’t need in Springer, this is a problem.
Jays have already given up on Kay as he’s not in the rotation as of today. They’ve seemingly given up on Thornton also. Stripling is also not very good and should be in the bullpen.
No Bauer, no postseason. Unless Pearson breaks out.
@Tony, As I understand it, there are members-only chats where you’re much more likely to get your questions answered, as well as members-only articles that are sent to your inbox. Not sure whether the ads go away as well or not.
Personally, I don’t have any paid subscriptions, but if I did, I’d pay for this and The Athletic.
For all the Bauer cheerleaders.
1- He has performed at Ace level for only 1.5 yrs of his career. 5 other years he has been a #3-4 pitcher.
2- He pitched in the weakest offensive division in baseball.
By Runs scored 2020.
Let that sink in – 4 of the 5 worse offensives in MLB were in the NLC.
Anyone naïve enough to think that did not help Bauers 2020 numbers
There is a ton of performance variance with this guy which makes signing him for 30m+ over multiple years a highly risky proposition. This isnt a 1 yr x 18 m we are talking about.
At Best he has a P40 chance of delivering Ace level production for 4-5
Chicken vs egg.
NL Central had to face the best collection of arms.
Your point still stands, just kinda wobbly.
their strength is their lineup, not pitching. they need a better staff to go all the way, but they can go far as long as none of those guys embarrass themselves and the lineup does its job
I love when new fans suggest ridiculous things. I don’t think fans realize how hard it is to sign free agents who aren’t garbage in two years and than get value for the players your trading away. Good to see new fans like wereallguestshere.
I love when Iver comes up with shortsighted statements with no thought. It’s repetitive and inaccurate. Blue Jays need pitching with either a free agent signing or trade. Pick one. But your statement(s) on spending money is stupid is a farce. History proves that you are wrong. That isn’t even a debate yet you’re trying to make one. You’re on the losing end. Again.
History has proved what? That the playoffs are a complete crapshoot and you don’t need to spend to win.
If that wasn’t true there wouldn’t be a plethora of children crying about owners being cheap. Year after year they bi tch and moan about the rays and A’s and Indians and year after year they’re competitive and usually make the playoffs lol.
It’s ok you’re a NEW FAN and don’t get these simple things.
The only person whining here is you Iver. And you are ignorant to history.
2020 Dodgers spent to win
2019 Nats spent to win (Scherzer)
2018 Red Sox spent to win (JMart)
2017 Astros spent to win (Reddick, Beltran)
2016 Cubs spent to win (Lester, Heyward)
We can include big trades and extensions. History, as I said, proves that.
Are you even a fan of baseball or is your knowledge below basic?
4 of those 5 teams would not have won by spending if it wasn’t for a tank job filling the roster with elite young talent.
Just using the Dodgers as the case study is difficult to say spending equates to winning. It took how many years of spending huge before they won?
Yankees won titles when they developed talent, spending for it hasn’t really been super helpful.
Stretching history by exaggerating and ignoring key details is worse than being ignorant to history in my books.
Filthy, to break it down every team has had to do a few things such as:
-score on some trades
-spend when needed
Every team has had to splurge on a free agent to fill holes they could not fill through draft, development or trade. Nonetheless, they spent money to win. Goes without saying spending was not the only reason these teams won.
Strong clarification, appreciate.
Nothing goes without saying on the internet. We should have to add a hashtag or intro comment clarifying our sarcasm levels in most forums like this. #nosarcasmyet
That line where the spending starts to stifle the talent is what holds back a lot of teams in my opinion.
The Dodgers finally found that line. Extra impressive that they let Ryu and Maeda walk and still improved. (A lil Mookie goes a long way but he definitely got a lot of help too.)
Some of their young arms needed to spread their wings and get MLB innings. Nicely done in hindsight.
The Yankees almost found that line and then traded for Stanton and went back to adding pricey veterans. #slightsarcasmkindatrue
What’s that saying? Let the kids play!
The balance isn’t the same for any two teams either, so many moving parts. Fun stuff.
The A’s, Rays, Indians don’t have titles to show for their success likely adds to the point about needing to spend to win it all. Be thrifty so that you can splurge when it’s worth it, not just looking to always get best bang for buck.
Winning enough for playoffs can satisfy some people, but the Jays broke the playoff drought, on to the next goal. Purged some contracts, got younger, added a lot of prospects, took lumps, got back to 500 record. Next up: Goin to tha ‘ship! #nosarcasm #probablydelusion
Would be nice to win it in 2021, but I could see lose WS in 2021, win in 2022? Daydreaming!! Please don’t pinch me.
I think I might have missed the year where they win 1 playoff game at least, and maybe even a year where they win 1 playoff round.
Dodgers path was long.
Is trying to fast track things worth it? I’d try to. So probably not.
Patience rewarded often in baseball!
Spend, sure. They have started to spend though.
Spend on pitching, not so much.
Need vs want.
Really feels like an SP option stronger than Matz will still be brought in.
That’s my want.
Possibly 2, that’s more of a need. At least the urgency factor
I don’t think anyone would really have the time to break it down and really come up with a consensus blueprint for Championship success is what makes this a fun area to discuss.
Finding pitching by any means necessary would have the biggest piece if I was guessing up a pie chart trying to correlate factors of Championship success in MLB.
With finding the pitching at pre-arb prices being the largest slice of that pie piece when broken down further.
Cleveland, Tampa, LAD probably the best teams at doing this right now. Doesn’t take too long for teams to close gaps or for things to crumble though.
Still picturing better arms available at the trade deadline than what is available to sign right now.
Trade now, or trade deadline, similar caliber and cost seems likely to me.
Excited about how the spring battles could shake out with zero arms added before season starts.
Wouldn’t hate to see a couple added to bring more urgency to the battles, but there is certainly a point of diminishing returns that is being approached on a 40man level.
Trying some of the current fringe guys for 4-12 weeks, even at the risk of coming out of the gate slow or tanking any of these guys’ values has some merit.
I mostly hope that any of this matters in a month.
Let the kids play, can’t see ppd games at the rate NHL is seeing.
Enjoying the daydream in the meantime.
And quick side comment, maybe deeper dive later date–
Imagine Nats if they’d kept Giolito?
Would they be going for the 3peat this year if they had?
I think they win in 2012 if they didn’t end Strasburg’s season. We’ll never know.
Dodgers had strong teams that ran into some tough luck in the 2010s.
I realize the risk with Bauer. Next year’s SP landscape says to me the Jays should be on Bauer or else they could be hard pressed for another arm. Also think with Springer should come Bauer. If I am wrong, I’m wrong.
Next year’s SP landscape for free agents may not have the answer, but I feel pretty safe to assume a couple surprise arms enter the trade market this summer.
This time last year would have been fairly surprised to hear Snell, Darvish, Carrasco would be traded. Not shocked on any but still surprised to see all of them moved.
Clevinger, Greinke, Archer, Verlander, seems to be a top starter with multiple years traded each deadline lately.
Castillo, Hendricks already rumoured.
Could see Nola, Plesac or someone that level enter the mix.
Or classic rental types can work.
Not sure I’d wanna sign Scherzer next winter, but I think he’ll have lots of value on a few months this summer if the Nats aren’t in it.
Only needed a few months of David Cone and David Price to get over the hump.
Maybe best of both worlds, David Peterson? The David theme isn’t a dealbreaker I guess.
I’m shocked that they risked the pick/pool money with Springer, so doubling up by signing Bauer as well would absolutely stun me.
I’d go both too, but realistic prediction said they’d get neither.
Playing with house money for now, in a twisted sense.
My what-if on the Nats was more for 2020. If they still had Giolito, they probably wouldn’t re-sign Strasburg, but they might have had better result 2020 this way. Giolito maybe wouldn’t blossom this way. What-if game only fun for a little while.
Would’ve liked to see them get aggressive in 2012 too for sure. Hindsight says babying didn’t really help things? Maybe it did.
Oakland had strong teams that ran into some tough luck at one point to counter that spending argument. But LAD got the title so their 2020 counts in my books!
Good chat, mostly rambling to self lol…
Nah. It’s fun rambling. All good.
There’s no way the Jays enter the year with the rotation they have, right? After Ryu, it could be a revolving door throughout the rest of the rotation.
My guess is they get Paxton or Walker, or trade for another Matz level SP and then a bigger deal at the deadline if they are in it. Jays have a lot of trust in their young arms so maybe they are betting on 1 or 2 of them breaking out
They really need Pearson to show why he’s the best RHP prospect in baseball. A Ray or Stripling bounce back wouldn’t hurt either but I think they’re less likely.
That’s typical of most teams rotations. What you start with is seldom what you finish with
They should, because as constructed, the Jays will be in a battle for third place with the Red Sox, who will be stronger than expected.
You're A Troll
I don’t think that’s true. They’ve upgraded their roster the most of all the teams in the division. The Rays are worse than last year and the only way the Yankees can improve over last years roster is by relying on huge question marks in Kluber and Taillon. Looks to me like it’s a clear three way race for first place, with none of them being a clear favorite.
Jays offense can go toe to toe with Yankees. Both rotations have issues. I wouldn’t ink them into 3rd.
Miggy, I agree on the offense side, but I’d say the Yankees pen is stronger and their rotation leads with Cole. There is risk with Kluber and Taillon, but also significant upside. That’s not even counting Severino returning midyear. As constructed, they can push Garcia and Schmidt into AAA to start, so they have depth. There is implosion potential, but I think they’ve covered it was depth.
The Rays lost Morton and Snell, but Morton wasn’t that critical to their regular season success last year, and they restricted Snell to five innings. They have a lot of young talent, and are well run, so I expect them to be difficult.
The Jays are good. My main point is really that the Red Sox may be more of a challenge than expected. Bloom is snapping in non-sexy pieces that coupled with some expected bounce backs will surprise.
you mean they will be worse then the Rays who will have Archer or Wacha as their third starter and the Yankees who are a walking injury?
I agree with your statement. I wanted Paxton and Walker but since the trade for Matz I’m not sure what you do with the abundance of LHP. You can move Matz or Ray to the bullpen but I think you’ll see Ray start the season in the rotation. I would push hard for Walker on a 2year deal (3 year option) loaded with incentives. Then look for a guy at the deadline if needed.
Mlb1225, you nailed it. I would love to see the Jays trade Roark but the prospect going with him would have to be very good. There is not much after Ryu in this rotation that is championship caliber.
Bauer or another very good to elite starter brought in via trade would do nicely. Big maple is not what he used to be and walker is meh. Oddorizzi would be okay along with Bauer.
Roark for a bad contract like a Kimbrel or Segura. Something to ensure prospects are kept.
Roark ,grichuk + prospects and some money to Colorado for Blackmon.
Roark and Grichuk alone would be enough for Blackmon. And I wouldn’t make that deal if I were the Jays. Rockies would need to kick money in, not the Jays.
Paxton, if he can stay healthy, would be a great option for the Jays. Between his and Ryu’s injury history, that’s a lot of risk, but the reward could be very high as well. If they land Paxton and Bauer and all three remain healthy, that front three would be about as good as anybody’s.
To answer your question, the answer is yes. Jays are willing to walk in with this rotation.
the giants have to still be in on paxton – they still have wood as the lone lefty on the staff.
I don’t believe the Rockies are covering the entire salary as it was reported. They are covering $15 million and Arenado agreed to have $20 million deferred from this year’s salary. So in essence, yes it’s covered because of the deferral, but they’re not paying $35 million towards it specifically.
I think you’re right, jkoch717
Yes thats pretty much correct. Rockies cover 15.mil this season and Arenado deferred the other 20 from this season. So in effect, Rockies are covering his pay this season as long as he doesn’t opt out. If he doesn’t opt out… the Rockies owe STL another 36 million before the deferrals come due.
Add Porcello to that list hes underrated and will not cost as much as those guys
The report of the Rockies paying all of Arenado’s salary in 2021 is incorrect. Much of what they agreed to contribute is deferred.
Yea lol it’s not like they sent him a 35 mil check for this year.
But Arenado also deferred the other 20 million of his contract for 2021. So as long as he doesn’t opt out at all… the Cardinals get him for free in 2021 because the other 36 million they are getting comes before his deferred money comes due
Hard to believe the long list of players still without contracts. These type of updates remind me of that. Long gone are the days of boiling hot stoves
For Love of the Game
With Goldschmidt getting older and the high salary of Arenado, the Cards should push in on Odorizzi. The NL Central is theirs for the taking and they shouldn’t be shy about adding to their investments.
The question then becomes does Carlos Martinez get pushed to an already well stocked bullpen or dealt for a big bat for the bench or another OF to push Fowler Bader and O’Neill for playing time opposite Carlson? Bc even with Odorizzi he’s not pushing Waino Kim or Flaherty out of the rotation and I’d assume the same for Mikolas since he’s got more financial control than Carlos Martinez at this point?
While there was a brief mention some weeks past that Samardzjia was showcasing for the Cubs, there has been nothing since. Is he no longer on anyone’s radar?
I’d be happy with Paxton or Odorizzi for the Phils, but I think Walker is toast. Odorizzi is also going to benefit from the lack of quality starters on the market, and he strikes me as a major overpay because of supply and demand.
Why is Walker toast? He has a new tendon in his elbow and pitched well last year.
@Ducey Perhaps I’m judging him far too harshly, and don’t get me wrong he’d improve this rotation. I like him more on a prove-it deal than a multi-year contract. I guess that’s more my thinking.
Agreed Von. Still unsure how Walker would hold up over a 162 game season.
Agreed. If Walker is toast, what does that make Odorizzi? He barely pitched last season!
how is Walker, coming off a healthy career year, more toast then Paxton, coming off an injured career worst year?
How is Walker supposed to be heavily relied on when he’s barely pitched since, what, 2017? Can you trust either guy beyond a 2-year deal?
First, I know the “”you’re nuts comments”” are being written even b4 I post this..
Yesterday there were reports that the Dodgers only talked to Trever Bauer about a 2 year deal..No official offer was made, then we heard the Mets did make another official offer to Bauer of 3 years $100m which is way lower than what we were led to believe it would cost to get him..He wants more than 4 years..
soooooooo, If I had the chance, I’d offer Bauer 4 @ $125m….. It would take the Phillies over the LUX threshold, but Middleton did say he would do it if it meant more than a wildcard..Bauer would give the Phillies an A+ rotation…..then, I would try to move some money for minor league help..
Please don’t hurt me too bad. (*_^)
I’m not sure why the Phillies are concerned about the luxury tax. They’d be a first time offender, so the penalties will be minor, and the threshold is going to go up with the next CBA. It would be a one-time issue.
All these billionaire owners are concerned about the lux tax. It’s ridiculous, but it’s reality.
I think the wealthier teams are all trying to get under the tax in advance of the CBA talks. Is any team projected to go over this coming year? I’m just not sure what they’ll gain by doing that. If anything, it’ll make the MLBPA more determined to eliminate it or at minimum greatly increase it.
Because if you go over you get the simpleton fans too excited and if next season after you come in below what you spent the previous year you’ve got idiots saying the owner is being cheap. You can’t win with the fans. It’s better if you’re a owner to slash payroll and give them something to complain about. Because you know those suckers will still buy tickets and watch the team and the team will probably be better positioned by not having expensive long term god awful contracts anyway.
stan lee the manly
Always a bridesmaid and never a bride is the result your time will find if they never sign anybody to real contracts. You can’t win if you don’t pay the players you need.
Cap & Crunch
Better positioned to what Iver? Not spend as you suggest…..
its not about this year, its about years down the line. going over this year vs next year first means they have to duck back under one year earlier. miscalculate and you get the Red Sox scenario.
I personally think 4 @ $125 is way too much for Bauer. I say he’s worth about 4 @ % 116 plus a team option for a 5th year. No more than that. I don’t think his market is very broad at the moment. Why bid 125 if you don’t have to?
You could be right..my thinking was that it would give him the extra year at a reduced $..If the Mets deal was stretched to 4, it would be $133m+ It was just a spur of the moment idea ….I’d love to see a elite starters being added to the rotation…
reasonable thought especially with Bauer’s driveline connection with Phils-
question would be would it put them over luxury tax for multiple years, and i imagine that would be the case- just Cutch coming off books after this year- i guess VV too but not sure that gets them under for 22 and beyond- segura and did in final years in 22 i think.
solid ammount off tje books after 2021 is the only reason they may to over this year, if they do to over this year with a multi year deal then it makes going back under in 2022 harder.
I think teams are worried about this trio being able to go from 50-150 innings to the 150 the clubs need. and I would assume their asking price is higher than most clubs want to pay or there would be more teams in on them. The Angels should pick up one or even two of these but I somehow doubt they will.
I still say depth is going to be very important this year.
Do we see every team go to a 6-7 starting pitchers staff? I’m not sure they’re 180-210 starting pitchers for 2021? Average game score in upcoming season 8-6? Or more? Sheesh!
“[The Jays] are wary of adding so many veteran options that it impedes the path to innings for younger arms like Anthony Kay and Julian Merryweather.”
What?? Why? They both suck. Plus like… Taijuan Walker is younger than Merryweather anyway.
Blue Jays have made such a commitment to competing, it’d be a shame if they didn’t try to put QUALITY starters in their rotation behind Ryu.
Ray is a 3 at best. Roark and all the others are 5’s. They seem to have a logjam around the infield and DH, so a trade could be in the making.
Guerrero is the big piece, market-wise. He’s underachieved to date outside of the homerun derby. Tellez or Biggio looks to be the odd man out of the infield right now. Grichuk is an expensive 4th outfielder and could go too.
Orioles trading away Means is a possibility. Reds trading Gray? Can’t leave out the Pirates dealing Brault or the Rockies trading Marquez or Jon Gray.
Bottom line is the Jays still have work to do and options to explore.
Why on earth do people think biggo would ever be considered for a trade. One. He’s literally the only guy they have that hits left handed that is a everyday player. Two. I dunno if you people pay attention to baseball but nobody plays a 162 games anymore. Every day players play like 140 games. The way platoons work and his organizations are understanding rest and says off you need like 12 regulars. The dodgers have won for like 5 years now because of depth. When people need days off they still have a potent lineup. Three. The jays play on concrete. Guys need even more days off because the legs and back take more wear and tear.
Can you point out where Jim Stem considered Biggio in a trade. I have an ability to read and he did not mention that. You might enjoy reading your own dribble but going off on a statement that isn’t there is not a good sign for you.
Jim mentions four players in the third paragraph and ends the paragraph with “could go too” implying that all four of those players could be traded.
Grichuk could go too, referencing Vlad, because Tellez and Biggio are the “odd men out”. He was incorrect about Biggio being the odd man out but, again, not referenced to be traded nor was Iver’s insanity necessary.
Grichuk could go too, referencing Vlad, because Tellez and Biggio are the “odd men out”.
Sorry to say, but your interpretation is complete gibberish. He said why Grichuk could go, he’s an expensive 4th outfielder. Biggio and Tellez being the odd men out on the infield has nothing to do with him and was clearly in reference to their own candidacy as possible trade chips.
Biggio or Tellez would be the odd man out if Vlad plays 1B (Tellez) or 3B (Biggio), because Grichuk would play RF and Teoscar would DH.
Stormie: “Biggio and Tellez being the odd men out on the infield has nothing to do with him”
…and you’re wrong, as stated in my first paragraph what Jim Stem meant.
As a cardinal fan I’d love to see them grab Paxton. I’ve always like odorizzi, but idk how excited the FO would be to hand out 2-3 years to him. Walker is kinda the odd man out of this bunch, but if he can be had for cheap he would at least provide some depth with a bit of upside. Get it done MO
The fact that the Cards are even in this conversation surprises me. I haven’t heard anything about them wanting to upgrade the rotation until now. Not that I’m against the idea, just surprised.
Same here man. I read this and was shocked. The roto still has a ton of ?’s with Martinez being Martinez, Mikolas injury, Waino being 80 years old, and Flaherty struggling last year a bit. I’d love to see Paxton in red
Then again, Flaherty and Mikolas are only barely question marks, and they still have a bunch of quality depth behind the top 5 guys even without Gomber.
For example, half the teams in baseball would love to have Alex Reyes as one of their projected 5 starters, yet he’s only 6th or 7th on the Cardinals’ current depth chart.
stan lee the manly
I agree that Paxton would be a great target for the Cards, but I also think Walker is a better option than Odorizzi. He looks ready to go after TJS and he’s going to be a heck of a lot cheaper. I don’t think he’s going to command a multiyear deal, but even if he does it shouldn’t be an incredibly high AAV.
I hope the Jays sign one of Paxton or Walker and hang onto Roark. He had his worst season ever last year. He and Stripling could bounce back with a full spring training.
I certainly would not be upset if they traded Roark but it doesn’t make sense for them to eat salary/ add prospects and get rid of him at his all time lowest value. They will need all the arms they can get after last season and with Covid.
Sign Walker or Paxton and trade Reese McGuire to open up a 40 man roster spot.
Cards should be in if they can get a one year deal. Better to avoid a multi-year deal with all the money coming off the books next season.
I’m thinking Paxton to PHI & Odorizzi to STL.
Trevor Bauer, Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Rick Porcello, Anabel Sanchez, Jake Arrieta, Julio Teheran, Cole Hamels, Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Mike Leake, Gio Gonzalez, Homer Bailey, Rich Hill, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Tommy Milone, Tyler Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Matt Harvey, Matt Shoemaker, Collin McHugh, and Tyson Ross.
Thats a lot of starting pitching still available this late in the offseason with so many teams needing rotation depth.
Matt Harvey isn’t a MLB-level pitcher, but your overall point about how many FAs are still out there still stands. Thats a lot!
Yes sir, that is a lot of starting pitching still on the board. Yes sir, I hope they ALL make their way into starting rotations. After the first four names on this list, I will absolutely be betting the over on the opposing team run total. I don’t care what that number is. More times than not, those guys will have yielded a 5 spot after about 3 innings of work. Money in the bank!
Where are they coming up with the Phillies being $11M shy of the CBT threshold? I just looked on Spotrac and they had them hovering around $157M. That would leave plenty of room for another pitching upgrade or two.
Based on 19 players plus Herrera. I checked the luxury tax tracker on Spotrac and Philly is at $173-mil.
Still $26M less than what they suggest above. Maybe they still have some arb guys that haven’t signed yet is only thing I can think of.
Yep I was thinking that too. Also surprised DD went for Chase Anderson over Porcello. Only because he’s had Porcello on two separate teams.
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I don’t think they will, but I’d be ok with the White Sox taking a chance on Paxton on a one-year deal. If he’s great, they have a terrific front four for the playoffs. If he sucks or is hurt, they can turn to guys like Cease or Kopech. Odo’s not much of an improvement and Walker makes more sense for a rebuilding team who can afford to take more of a gamble, like the Tigers.
I would much rather wait and make a deadline deal for any further significant additions to the rotation. Let’s play this out for a few months and continue to see what we have and what we don’t have. No need to set the playoff rotation in February. I think we will see an awful lot of teams in sell mode as the season plays itself out. May find something better than the scraps still left, and definitely better than overpaying for a dude like Bauer.
Paxton would be a nice addition for the Rangers, but too expensive in a rebuild situation. I would love to have Walker at the Rangers 3/30 threshold. He is still young, so he fits now and in the future.
Everyone whining about salaries this offseason needs a reminder that Tanner Roark is making $12M this season.
And Chris Davis is making $17M. What’s your point? That a bad contract should somehow affect how we feel about new ones?
I don’t think the Jays will land Bauer, although the team provides much of what Bauer us seeking, he simply wouldn’t fit the culture of the team… Bauer us marketing himself as a ‘brand’ and not just a SP, who bumped his spin rate magically, a year before he hits Free Agency. Too much of a Prima Dona… his self marketing technics may have worked against achieving his goal of landing a historical contract. Just sayin
And there is one reason Bauer is still unsigned right now. Marketing himself as a “brand” doesn’t really work in MLB. This isn’t the NBA where they all try to be a “brand”, in MLB one player is simply not better than the sum of the teams parts…ask Mike Trout
Bauer isn’t signed because of the asking price. He brings it down a little he’s signed. Brand or no brand.
I think this is a sign that the Cards are going to trade CMart. He’s been mentioned in trade talks for 3 yrs. And based on what I see, he does not fit with that team. So I could see the Cards signing either Odorizzi or Paxton, and flipping CMart for a prospect
But who would take C-Mart at this point without forcing the Cardinals to eat most of his salary? They’d be better off hoping for a likely rebound from him rather than selling low, even if it’s just as a late-inning bullpen arm again.
Why aren’t the Angels in on these guys?
Because it’s pitching. Why would the angels be in on them? Ha
I don’t understand why teams like the Pirates or Mariners teams like that don’t overpay on 1 year deals for guys that would at the deadline be of interest to contenders.
I would think they could get a decent return on guys and not have to pay them the remaining part of their salaries.
Mariners did it last year with Walker I thought
The Phillies are spending alot of money to be a .500 team.
Am I crazy to think that one of Matz, Stripling, Roark, Chatwood, Thornton or Ray could have an above average season and one other could be league average, coupled with Pearson. The Jays could have a decent 4 (I say decent, not elite or good), but with the high powered offence more than enough to compete for the division. Tell me if you think I’m nuts (but be polite).
Matz and Stripling are capable of being slightly above average if they’re lucky. Roark’s ceiling is a little below average and Chatwood will be in the pen.
Like with most teams, it’ll come down to health. If Ryu misses most of the year as he has often, it won’t be easy to overcome that.
Are you sure you know how to use the term ‘ceiling’ in baseball?
Is it me?
If all things go right on a particular day, weather, opponent, mental and physical health, feel of the mound, etc, then there’s some potential for quality starts among that bunch of stinkers.
That’s ceiling? Right?
Matz was lucky one time in 2020, 6IP, 1ER, 3 baserunners performance.
In 2019, Matz was a 6IP, 1ER kinda lucky on six occasions! Plus 1 where he really hit the jackpot and went 9IP, 0ER, 12 baserunners.
Guy shows glimpses of high capability.
Stripling was lucky one time in 2020, 7IP, 1ER, 4 baserunners performance.
In 2019, Stripling was used in relief a lot, but found luck once more in a stretch when he started. An 8IP, 1ER, 5 baserunner performance that time.
Roark ceiling 2020 was 5IP 1 ER 3 baserunners. Below average in length/stamina, but he’s shown capable of knowing how to use it a little bit..
2019, Roark had a 6.0 to 6.2IP 0ER ceiling.
8 starts that some may consider as quality.
Chatwood had a 6IP 1ER and a 6.2IP 0ER performance in 2020.
If he’s healthy in spring might still get to compete for a rotation spot?
Showed capable of a 6IP 0ER in 2019 as well but used mostly in bullpen that year.
Ray had a 5IP 1ER ceiling for 2020 and a 6IP 1ER ceiling for 2019.
Varying levels of wild card from 2-10 in the rotation right now? Spring battles, get excited!!
Durability for Matz, Roark, Ray and flexibility for Stripling, Chatwood can’t be fully overlooked. If Ryu went down, I’d hope that it’s after some minor league seasoning time has passed.
Someone’s gonna step up. Someone’s gonna get hurt. Repeat the hurt part. See a regression. Another hurt. Another step up. A release. And a last minute trade? Repeat from the top as necessary. #mostlysarcasmthispart
BowTieGuy, you’re like a cashew, best kind of nutty, One of those 6 you named (I didn’t even go over Thornton, I’ve gone too far now… JK 7IP 0ER ceiling in 2019) is bound to have an above average season. I’d bet that. If I had to pick one, I would need some pretty high odds. But as a group, only needing 1 above average and 1 average out of the 6 seems like a fair chance to me.
Compete for the division, then make the trade for the playoff difference maker midseason is what I’m hoping to see still!
Not against adding to the arms pile now, but would really like to see what some of the current arms are made of for a bit.
My 2 cents, worthless mostly, but hopefully a chuckle or two for somebody.
I think the Phillies are going to make more smart moves and do their best to stay under the cap. Except this year, I don’t think they care as much about the luxury tax.
I don’t know why the Mariners haven’t signed Walker yet. DiPoto said he wants him back and Walker said he’d like to come back. I don’t understand what the issue is. Money can’t be it. The guy has so much untapped potential left. He has flashes where he is absolutely unhittable. If he can stay healthy, which is a big if so far throughout his career, it can all come together
So the Cardinals make their already weak outfield even weaker and instead want to add to an already good starting rotation? That doesn’t make sense to me.
A rebound for Carlos Martinez is much more likely than one for Tyler O’Neill or Lane Thomas, and even if it’s not C-Mart they also have Reyes and Woodford who are more likely to maintain starting roles than any of those AAAA outfielders they plan to play alongside Bader and Carlson (and even Carlson’s starting spot isn’t fully secure).