The Padres and their fans endured a long period of suffering, but the club finally returned to relevance in 2020. With 37 wins in 60 games, the Padres posted the sport’s third-best record, broke a 13-year playoff drought and advanced to the NLDS, where they lost to the division-rival Dodgers. While the Dodgers, who went on to win the World Series, are the favorites to reign over the NL again in 2021, the Padres look as if they’ll put up an even bigger fight this year.
Not content to continue playing second fiddle to Los Angeles, San Diego and general manager A.J. Preller have been extremely aggressive in trying to improve their roster since the Dodgers crushed their championship hopes last fall. Dating back to then, the Padres have used trades and free agency to add a slew of notable names – Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Ha-Seong Kim, Mark Melancon, Victor Caratini and Keone Kela lead the way.
Darvish and Dinelson Lamet give the Padres two starters who were in NL Cy Young contention last season; meanwhile Snell’s a former AL Cy Young winner, Musgrove has shown that he’s a legitimate mid-rotation type and Chris Paddack, although he struggled last year, looked like a high-end starter just two years ago. If anything goes haywire with that group, the Padres could get help from prospects such as MacKenzie Gore (MLB.com’s sixth-ranked farmhand) and Adrian Morejon.
Offensively, Kim and Caratini should help a unit that finished third in the majors in runs last year, when the all-world left side of the infield of third baseman Manny Machado and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. led the charge. They’re still around, as are infielder Jake Cronenworth, first baseman Eric Hosmer, outfielders Trent Grisham and Wil Myers – who all enjoyed terrific years.
As is the case with their starting staff and offense, the Padres’ bullpen looks as if it has the potential to be a formidable group in 2021. However, they’ll need more from holdovers such as Emilio Pagan, Craig Stammen and Tim Hill. And the Padres may miss Trevor Rosenthal, a late-season acquisition who left for the Athletics in free agency, but the Melancon and Kela additions ought to help. They’ll join holdovers Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson among the club’s preferred late-game choices.
All said, there isn’t much (anything?) to dislike about the Padres’ roster. The biggest roadblock may be that they’re still stuck in a division with the Dodgers, but PECOTA nonetheless projects a 95-win season for the Padres in 2021. How do you think they’ll fare?
(Poll link for app users)
They are legit. Nearing the Dodgers. Not there yet but right on their tail.
That very much arguable… dodgers offense is better but Padres pitching is crazy
Dodgers have a couple of decent pitchers as well…………….
Dodgers have the best rotation in all of baseball !! Then theres the offense !!
Bauer is going to bring that rotation down, but they do have some other very good pitchers. A HOFer at the front?
Everyone in the dodger rotation has or likely will win at least 1 Cy young in their career
The Padres? Not so much
Other than buehler, I don’t see anyone else (who hasn’t won one) getting a Cy young
I’d bet on the talent of 24 year old Urias+ 22 year old May
But hey. Even with you hating it’s 80% of the opening day 5
And you know this how…..Nostradamus?
Well Rob it helps when 60% of the rotation already has at least one, and the next 4 guys in succession are 26 or younger, down to 22, yet are already fully established starters in the majors
The padres have Darvish and Snell, a runner up just a year ago and the 2018 AL CY Young award winner. Lamet was 4th last year, Gore is nearly a top 1 prospect, Musgrove and Paddack, are, at the very least, pretty solid. The padres rotation has just as much potential as the Dodgers, if not more.
The dodgers and Padre rotation really aren’t on the same page. LAD’s #7 is better than SD’s 4+5 and beyond, if Lamet is healthy. If he’s not, it moves to SD’s #3
There’s no pretty solid in LA. Their pretty solid went to Toronto& Minn last year, then placed 1+2 in the AL CYY
The Padres are good on paper, but only as good as they are healthy, which is questionable. Overall, I think they are a good team, but the Dodgers are better given their depth. Padres need career years from some pitchers, Dodgers just need a few to show up…
The Dodgers look good too on paper, “assuming they stay healthy”
I would say the Padres are the second best team in the NL. No slouch, by any means. In any other division, I think they would be the hands down favorite.
I think Chief Two Hands is on to something here.
Ok. Let’s slow down. Beiber won the AL CY last year not Ryu or Maeda. And does Urias have 38 CAREER starts and May and Gonsolin 14. I’d hardly call that fully established. A very good and deep rotation, but the Padres have done a GREAT job building a solid club to compete with LAD.
And Price won his, what 10 years ago. He’s certainly isn’t CY caliber any longer, he opted out last year didn’t throw a pitch, may opt out again, and has his own injury history. And how many times has Kershaw hit the IL with a balky back. No surprise if Pads win the West.
Darvish should have won last year over Bauer
That’s how I see it too, the Dodgers might win the division because of the depth they have but , if SD is healthy going to the playoffs I like their chances in a best of 7 or best of 5 against any team.
Urias, May?
Aah, Padre Rob. Padres have a really good team but Padre fans are always cynical, sarcastic and caustic. Relax!
Of course they do, saavedra.
You’re right edge. I thought Ryu won but he was 3rd. That’s my bad for not confirming.. So change it to 2nd and 3rd. The crux of my point remains
Price isn’t opting out again. He’s posting videos of him working out talking about the year
His 2019 can be easily broken down to pre injury and post injury, when he was pitching hurt to prove his toughness to his own commentator. He needs to be a #3 here and is moving out of the ALE. With all that, he still had a 3.62 FIP in 2019.
I’d bet he has a better year than darvish
With kershaw, it’s been very well documented the dodgers have used the IL vigorously in the regular season. Many times it was said if it was Oct, he’d pitch Why? Because the dodgers play for October, not August. I know. The Padres aren’t used to that concept
Pretty much the only thing Darvish had over Bauer was FIP. Oh and wins.
Bauer led in ERA, ERA+, RA9, WHIP and H/9. And I don’t mean just led Darvish. I mean led the entire NL
What an argument
Darvish posted his numbers against NL Central hitters, the worst hitters in baseball. Darvish is also a known choke artist who NEVER comes through in pressure situations. Snell has arm issues which is why he was limited to 5 innings with the Rays. Save for the World Series game against the Dodgers, Snell was very much trending much more like a #3 starter than a #1. Lamet has arm issues. McKenzie Gore has arm issues. They wanted to promote Gore last year, but he was so bad with the extended camp team that just wasn’t a possibility. Paddack was terrible last year. Musgrove is what he is which is a solid #4 or #5 starter. All this Padres talk has gotten so out of hand. Their everyday position players are nothing but question marks after Tatis and Machado. Tommy Pham? He is still just 80% after being stabbed. Are we really saying that a team counting on production from Eric Hosmer and Will Myers is a threat to the Dodgers? So let me get this straight …. Pham, Hosmer, Myers, Some dude from Korea and Austin Nola is what opposing teams are supposed to worried about if they want to just walk Machado and Tatis every time. I will take my chances with walking those dudes to face these guys. Hosmer and Myers????? Do people realize that San Diego had success for a 60-game season. We are now about to play 162. Let’s stop this nonsense about how well Hosmer and Myers are now hitting. This Padres talk has gotten out of hand. Even the so-called great, Dodger-reject Manny Machado has only posted offensive numbers for the Padres during a 60-game season. He was TERRIBLE his first year in San Diego. The only thing helping San Diego is the fact that 75% of the teams in the NL are NOT trying to win, so they will get a bunch of wins by default. This is a GREATLY flawed baseball team!!
@lurking Yu Darvish and Trevor Bauer both faced primarily NL Central hitters, who were by far the worst in baseball. Both Darvish and Bauer’s Cy Young Award stats are highly flawed! It was a 60-game season and they piled up their starts against weak-hitting NL Central lineups. Bauer faced Atlanta and got Bombed! Darvish faced the White Sox and got Bombed!
The Padres need Darvish to pitch like an ace. The Dodgers only need Bauer to be a solid #3. That’s a big difference. My money is on the Dodgers rotation. I think the Padres are a good team, but the Dodgers are better.
That’s all very nice, but your rotation doesn’t have 7 players in it. Also, as someone from the Boston area, I can tell you first hand that David Price, who happens to be 4th in the Dodgers rotation, kind of sucks.
So the Dodgers let 2 CY caliber SPs Ryu and Maeda walk so they could pick up 1 for $103MM.
Price is 35 yrs old and has pitched more than 110 IP once since 2016; exactly 0 last year. Porcelo is still a FA. Sign him, that would give you another CY arm.
Think Darvish weakened a little last two weeks otherwise would have matched the numbers Bauer posted. Darvish was definitely worth watching last year.
Dodgers don’t need everyone to stay healthy. What’s the padres plan B if they lose 2 starters to injury? 2 unknown unproven rookies. Dodgers have 2 guys with World Series experience if they lose 2 starters. That’s the difference.
If by bombed you mean he went 7 2/3 and gave up 2 hits no runs and struck out 12 before his no blew the game? He crushed Atlanta. What game were you watching?
Bauer faced Atlanta and went 7 innings of two hit ball giving up 0 runs with 12 strikeouts. Where exactly did he get bombed?
@lurking You are the definition of a Mlbtr homer. Typical spewing of bs opinions without any actual facts nor stats to back up your claims. I bet you can’t even evaluate a good player without having to look up stats on fangraphs, bref, or mlb.I bet your actual baseball skills are even more pathetic.
Dodgers are getting old; 3 of 5 SP & 5 of 8 starting lineup 30+. Lose a step & don’t bounce back from injury as well once past 30.
On [paper], which is the operative term. The biggest difference between the Padres and the Dodgers is the only one that matters – the Dodgers are proven on the field, the Padres are not….. yet.
I chose the under, however. I think Padres will be good, but I’m not sold on a 100-win team.
Dodgers are the the camps until someone dethrones them, regardless of how one may feel about them.
Funny, that’s usually the case with champs
In my opinion, the biggest difference is depth.. I think that is why the Dodgers are stronger. Both are solid teams, though.
Padres have plenty of depth. Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Victor Caratini? Brian O’Grady if the Padres really get hit by the injury bug?
Agreed. And because I think the Padres rotation is actually better than the Dodgers, I think it will be a close call—even with LA’s superior offense. I could see San Diego landing on top.
After 1 60 game season lol. Padres relying on darvish 36 years old and playing one of worst offensive divisions in league last season (same argument padres stans use to put down bauer) and having half there team have career years…can’t wait for season to start and see padres fade half way through the year.
@Lurking yeah very true. Darvish regressing to his norms would cripple padres. Also hoping lamet can hold up and avoid his 2nd inevitable tj without even mentioning snell who can only go 5 innings before he gets launched.
Remember that the Dodgers have been in the postseason like 8 years in a row and just now they won the WS , coincidence?
Yes.
Complete coincidence. The fact they’ve won 8 straight AL West titles merely enhances not detracts from your assertion, @MikeD.
They didn’t stumble into their Championship, man. I understand why fans are questioning the validity of last year’s season.
I feel that is unfortunate, however. From my perspective,the Dodgers deserve extra credit – if anything – because even things as simple as construction were very difficult in 2020.
Playoff format was even more difficult in 2020. What was it about the 60 game season that helped the Dodgers win? They had the best player to opt-out. They were long gone with a playoff spot.
I am not questioning anything for me a championship is a championship, I am a fan of baseball, I follow players more than teams , but if he is a Dodger’s fan and he questioned the padre’s success after a 60 game season because they played better last year , I will remind him to look at what the Dodgers have done before this 60 games season, they have been in the playoffs like 8 times in a row and the Same results ( No Championship) here comes the weird season and they are the WS champions.
Yeah.
I see what you are saying now. I don’t generally read the poster you were responding to.
So I kinda jumped in.
Thanks for the clarification.
@tatsumaki-chan the pads are not relaying on yu they got hm as a supplement to there already good rotation. yes is yu’s contract underwater yes it is but your getting yu for what he can do now. you take yu on rn cuz he is dealing and can help your team. years sown the road when his contract looks bad you burry him as your 5th starter or bp guy. the pads if smart about there moves going forward and not do a theo. i see theme being a contender for years. i just hope sd recent success doesn’t inflate there ego and they make a dumb bet at the craps table. i only say this because i watched the cubs “so called” dynasty wither away because of all in moves year in and year out. long and short if sd can keep from blowing there wad (sorry for the crude humor) they should be a team you look at year in and year out.
Look up some stats. Buehler made 8 starts last year, but only threw 36 2/3 IP. That’s not even 5 IP/start.
He had a blister. Why would they push him in a regular season when they were on pace to win 115 games, instead of waiting for October? You’re really grasping at straws
Padres are 0-2 so far in Cactus League play.
Of course, they’re playing their fringe guys and players who will wind up in minor league camp right now.
@drdan you make very valid points and don’t wanna take away from them but it’s also st
@brodie
ST games don’t mean anything. That was my point.
For comparison, the dodgers are 2-0, out scoring the opposition 12-1 thus far
Bauer also threw 2 innings with 1 HA and 2 K today. But like you said, it’s ST. Who’s counting?
Paddack threw 2 innings today without giving up a hit so I guess he’s better than Bauer.
Kershaw and Bauer are both students…that could be interesting. Students get along…
Bauer can also rub people the wrong way
The same was said about Greinke. Different guys, probably…maybe similarly eccentric. I recall reading that Kershaw referred to Greinke as a brother. Greinke and Bauer, that is…
0-2 in Cactus league?
Time to hit the panic button. Think they can salary dump Darvish?
“not content to play second fiddle to Los Angeles…”
Man.
Every team in baseball is playing that same fiddle. Ya know?
It’s:
First: the Dodgers
Then: everybody else who is Not The Dodgers.
I’m a little surprised that Vegas favors the Yanks over San Diego. They look really good. Really complete. Maybe they’re odds for the series are lower because they’d have to navigate LAD sooner.
But I see them as every bit as good as the anyone else in the AL Yanks included.
Took the over.
Ducky: great point but I think it’s because of the Yankees consistency, whereas the Padres are not yet proven on the field. If they show up this year, I don’t see that happening again.
Clip-
Hadn’t thought of that.
But, I like seeing how excited their fans are, man. & they’ve every reason to be. Plus, it’s the NL West – so as Yankee fan I’ve no pony in the field.
Darvish is my favorite pitcher in MLB though. So I definitely have some kind of rooting interest in San Diego.
&…man…that starting pitching. I vaguely recall how fun it was having a good staff. Word of warning to Padres fans; Yanks rotation was the envy of MLB last year this time.
But: pitchers, man.
Hope they have better fortune than we did. We were down two starters well before spring training ended.
Pitchers, man.
“PECOTA nonetheless projects a 95-win season for the Padres in 2021.” They also project Pittsburgh to lose 102 games, they’ll lose that many by the middle of August. Ahahaha!
You haven’t yet heard of the “Curse of Manny”… but you will…..
before we crown sd let’s see what they can do in 162, there exciting and building something that can rival the dodgers. lets give sd some time to show us that there legit. last season was unique for better or worse and most of what we saw last year needs to be looked at objectively. yes we didn’t have a true bb season in 20 least we had bb. all i’m saying is let’s pump the brakes on printing ws tickets for sd nym cws cubs stl. *note all teams listed are teams that give upside (sd and cws) or teams that need to prove that there even worth talking about (yes i’m even throwing my cards in that prove category)*
Hoping for a NLCS in 2021 of Dodgers Vs Padres.
That would be sick!
Could only happen if they expand the playoffs again for 2021.
It’ll
Be the division series unless Atlanta somehow wins more games than the dodgers or they change the playoff format. Wildcard team plays the team with the most wins, meaning after they win the one game playoff, they would play each other first round.
I agree with this, mostly. Padres pitching (rotation and bullpen) is better overall, but the Dodgers offense is better. It’s funny though, because in terms of depth, I think Padres are deeper on offense and Dodgers are deeper in pitching. I would say they are neck-and-neck and it’s going to come down to which team stays healthier.
Dodgers have the best rotation in all of baseball !! Then theres the offense !!
Just under IMO. They’re good but lots of their players had a good 60-game season. Especially Hosmer and Myers. Lamet needs to stay healthy and their bullpen is meh.
Bullpen is meh?
Pomeranz (Top 2 reliever in MLB last year)
Pagan (Former TB closer)
Melancon (Former ATL closer)
Kela (Former PIT closer)
Adams (Filthy, former SEA closer)
Not to mention, Johnson, Castillo, Strahm, Morejon, etc
Lots of “formers” in that list.
@Darth
Yeah, Melancon is a “former” Braves closer because he’s not a Brave anymore. Pagan is likewise not a Ray anymore.
Kenley Jansen is a “former self” closer now.
His K/9 last year was 12.2/9. He may be better in 2021 than any reliever the Padres have. But keep yelling how broken he is Brewer
That’s a lot of “formers”…bullpens are hit and miss in general. Sure, looks solid on paper, not great by any stretch.
I’d be shocked to see repeats by Cronenworth, Myers, and Grisham. Hosmer is fine, not a difference maker. And catching is sketchy. Ninety wins max.
@sideline. Haters sayin that everyone overachieved last year and will now suddenly regress but forget that Pham, Paddack, Yates, Nola, Moreland,and even Snell, Lamet (late season) and Gore had slumps or injuries while Padres and took a down turn. They’re likely to get better production at those positions, It goes both ways.
Kela was a shut down elite closer with Pittsburgh with that ONE save.
@ max…. Did Pitt even need a closer? Seriously, adding Kela as a “positive” is really stretching things……
That’s a lot of formers….not a bad crew, but as a Dodgers fan, I can tell you, the life span of a reliever is often limited.. I wouldn’t want to rely on it.
Sideline beat me to it…only 10 hours ago.
94 sounds about right. In any other division, I’d say closer to 98ish, but the Dodgers throw a pretty good amount of competition their way.
Correction: The NL East also looks pretty tough with Atlanta and the Mets, assuming the Mets don’t implode as per usual, and the Braves rotation performs.
Don’t sleep on Nats and Marlins either.
Nats could surprise. I don’t know what to make of the Marlins. That team doesn’t seem very good, but it seems like a fun team to watch. I’d love to see them surprise.
Either way, you’re right, though…The Nats and Marlins could make that a much closer division.
Yeah I just wanted to help flesh out how good that division could be. Nats still have some real good players. They’ll all beat each other up, Phillies can hit even if their pitching might be suspect.
sorry for the possible 2x post (don’t think my last post will hit cuz of a spelling of a word)
yo brew don’t forget about atl throughout there history they have a representation of choking going back to the early 90’s. tbh i see atl loosing the nle because they keep tripping over there own man in unit. until proven otherwise gotta give atl the div but i can see it being close and atl being out looking in cuz atl can’t get out of atl way.
But they will also have 19 games each against AZ, SF, and CO. I think they’ll be close even if Lamet misses time. If his elbow holds up, I think they’ll be over 100wins and neck and neck with LAD.
I think the Padres are on pace with the Braves as the second best team in the NL with the Dodgers a clear first.
That Braves rotation doesn’t do much for me. If Morton can hold up, and the young pieces like Wright and Anderson step up, you’re probably right…but if they don’t, they’re putting a lot of hope into Smyly and some other big question marks.
to be fair, it was injury wrecked last year and they still did well. they are a better team then they look on paper imo.
Brewscrew…..Have you seen Fried and Soroka pitch or looked at their stats? You left out their two guys about with the most upside.Fried, Soroka, Anderson, & Morton have the potential to be a quite dominant quartet.
I didn’t mention Soroka or Fried because they’re solid at the top of the rotation. Morton is 37 and looked pretty bad last year (on limited action, so who knows exactly why?)
Anderson looked good last year. I’m saying if he can step up and pitch like he did last year, that rotation looks a lot better.
Thank you. A lot of assumptions about that rotation–young, inexperienced.
But Charlie Morton. Dude is a rock. Love that guy.
Biggest Q for Morton- really the entire Braves rotation- is health
Offensively, how hard will Ozuna+ Freeman regress, and how that has a trickle effect, has to be a question as well
I consider the Braves the class of the NLE but they have questions
Chris….Just looking at each roster, I tend to agree with you. But ATL has much tougher intradivisional opponents. ATL will have 19 games each against MIA, Philly, NYM, and the Nats. That is a far greater challenge than facing the likely best team in LAD, but then also SF, AZ, CO.
As good as ATL will be, it will be a long shot for them to get over 100 wins, much less finish with a better record than the SDP.
I’m definitely biased, but it seems the NL will have some very close division races. Of course, the NL Central for other reasons than the East and West.
I got the over. They are pretty stacked. Playing Dodgers 19 times doesn’t help but if they want to be the best have to beat the best.
Playing the Rockies and Dbacks 19 times apiece should help offset that though.
Is 162 more than 94.5? The first undefeated team in MLB history… the 2021 San Diego Padres!
gotta get some tickets when they come to SF
Slightly below the first tier (dodgers Mets) but still elite. (Braves Padres whitesoxs Yankees)
This is some next-level homerism.
Yea, get realistic buddy. First tier includes Angels, not Mets. These clueless Mets homers, geez.
Vegas……Haha! Well played
MetsFan…Such hubris!
Lol sure. Pencil the mets in for the nlcs today.
Bro, @mestfan22 –
Aren’t you supposed to be giving Cohen his foot massage right now? How do you have time to post?
Anyway.
It’s the Dodgers in their own special tier.
Then it’s the jumble of the actual elite teams: Yanks, Padres, Braves, White Sox.
Then everybody else.
Now. Get back to work ya stinky foot rubber.
Mets fan- U must have missed it, but at the last minute Bauer shunned the Mets to sign w dodgers. Y’all didn’t get him ! Also, there’s this little thing called on the field production. It’s kinda required to be considered a first tier team
The modelling I’ve seen suggests that the padres will win……. 203 games this year.
That’s it?
Is that the Bill Gates model?
Yep. Mentioned it in an MSNBC interview.
Donnie T said at CPAC that the Dodgers had already won 134 games this season. I don’t remember there being a season yet but he was insistent. When I asked Rudy about it he said Donnie’s alternative facts were the accurate ones. Now I don’t know what to believe. Maybe Dodgers fans are telling the truth. We should ask Trevor Bauer. He’s good with alternative facts.
The model @Down with OBP saw assumes owners’ dream version of round robin expanded playoffs with the WS wrapping up the Monday after the Super Bowl. SD wins 95 in the regular season, but picks up the remaining 108 during the postseason.
I’d say the most relevant opponent in this conversation is the Diamondbacks, if they’re good then Padres are under 94.5 but if the Dbacks are bad then they’ll get over. I’m betting the Dbacks make it to right around .500 and that keeps the friars around 91-93 wins. I don’t see the Giants or Rockies competing.
i don’t wanna sound like i’m knocking sd there building something special and i hope they can sustain it. before we start “going down” on sd let’s see what they do in a 162 season. i’m not discrediting sd there a team to watch just like cws but let’s see how they play the season out. i’m hoping there legit bb in general is better if you have a bunch of legit teams figgy for a ws than 2 or 3 power teams
I wish you could spell and capitalize appropriately, but I agree. Let’s see a whole season out of them before we crown them ninety-five game winners.
On paper the Padres are very good, games are not won on paper however. This does look like possibly the best roster they’ve fielded since ’96-’98 and that was a pretty good time for Padres fans so there is a lot to be excited about for the next few seasons
I think we will get much more than 94.5 wins. My prediction is that the Padres win 99 games this year and the Dodgers win 101. Padres are going to win the World Series as well.
You seem so objective I almost believe you. {incredibly sarcastic}
Dodgers are winning 114 and going back to back
Have to not get swept in playoffs first
id have to say they are the 2nd best team in baseball, though 94.5 still seems like a tough number.
I agree. This rotation has the potential to completely collapse however. Even after all the work they did to improve it- darvish and snell have a lot a stretches of getting rocked. And Lemet or “Le Met” is destined to implode w a name like that
Bauer needs to find consistency, or a consonant. Jansen is broken, they picked up some once aponatimes like Knebel hoping he re-enacts past glory. Maybe one or two noodles stick to the wall.
I’ll say this though, the Dodgers hitters, every one of them, has bought in to working the count on opposing pitchers and it’s like watching Rickey Henderson over and over. They are well coached.
@Brewer88 Bottom line, the Dodgers won the Series and have since added the NL CY winner to their already top-notch staff. Pretty hard to poke holes in that, but I’m sure you’ve gotta try.
Don’t see how anyone can take the under if 162 games are played. I would be surprised only if they win less than 100. They are in a very weak division. Outside of LA, the Giants are below average and AZ and Colo are horrible.
The dodgers cannot take the division for granted because they might end up playing the wild card game, it’s gonna be a good division to watch.
The only thing with SD is that sometimes when you make a lot of changes like they did, it can take some time to put it all together, build chemistry and learn on what chair every individual on the roster is sitting on. Scary rotation though
Lamet is healthy and Paddack returns to form, so in another pandemic-shortened season of about 150 games (yes there will be cancellations and lots of forced doubleheaders), I think they will go 93-57 and edge the Dodgers for best record in MLB.
If Lamet makes it past April without the inevitable TJ I’ll be surprised, hope I’m wrong. Darvish is old and the inevitable decline or injury could happen at any time now. The bullpen has lots of questions. Too many over 30’s. Like Morejon and Weathers out of the pen tho.
Bad things could happen sure. Or the pen could perform great, Paddack and Pham rebound, Musgrove breaks out, Gore emerges and Kim’s an all star. We’ll see.
They are really good… borderline legit. Honestly, I’d put them on the same lvl as the Braves.. and I only do that to bring them down some cause everyone has hyped them up to Dodgers lvl. But they just aren’t there yet and I don’t think they are quite as good as the Braves. Their rotation is legit legit, especially when MC comes back and gore comes up officially. But that lineup isn’t THAT scary, bench is weak, and the bullpen has like 3 good arms ish… idk. And I’ll say it… Tatis is overrated. He’s a good SS but he’s only played one season worth of games and we act like he’s one of the top 5 players in baseball which is a JOKE… idk. Padres are good. Likely a top 5 team in baseball… but not that good
Dang. $200MM only buys 94ish wins these days? That’s tough.
When you share a division with a team well exceeding$200 million(LAD) it is a bit harder to buy Ws. Spend $200 million in the NL Central or AL West and the money is gonna go alot further. Unless your the Angels and you buy everything except pitching. Their roster is like a fully loaded sports car with a V6 engine.
V6? When did the Angels upgrade from the four-banger?
need to gel as a team first. i say 91 wins.
That’s the rub, right? The talent is there, no doubt. But is the team? Can Tingler manage a team that’s expected to win? Can AJ react as a GM who has to make GOOD moves, or just one who makes moves.
That said, SF if “meh”, and COL and ARI stink (tho the whole in ARIZ is always greater than the sum of their parts). So they’re a playoff team.
Right now the standard for greatness is the 2018 Red Sox, best MLB team lately. And the Red Sox are quietly building back to that level. So if the Padres can approach that level, good for them. But when you win 108 games and then ride roughshod through your postseason opponents making them all look overmatched, then you’ve got a true championship team. It will be fun to watch the next GREAT team march through MLB with such domination as the Red Sox. Maybe it will be the Padres. That would be totally cool.
The dodgers last year were on pace for 115 wins in a full season
They’ve added David Price and Trevor Bauer. I’d say that’s the bar SD should be concerned about
For the Padres or Dodgers to do what the Red Sox did in 2018 a lot has to go very right for the entire season. Remember in 2018 five teams in the AL lost more than 95 games with the Orioles topping them all with 115 losses. Are there five teams in the NL that project to be that bad this season?
Yeah, that ’18 red sox squad was really good, @whyhaze.
But…”quietly building back to that level.”
Say what, now? They must be whispering it. sox have a payroll in excess of the Yanks by ~ 5 mil. & Boston is going to be a .500 ballclub. They also have the lowest ranked farm in the East.
To most of us they are, “loudly crashing from that previous level.”
I hope you find this information helpful.
Huh? The Red Sox roster is mediocre and will be for a long time.
2018? When they cheated? That’s your standard?
Who?
I think this padres team is quite good but 94 wins sounds about right. I’ll go w/ the under just because I think the Giants and DBacks will be near .500 and the Rockies will be bad but not horrendous. The NL only has 2 lousy teams to beat up on.. Either way, this is why playoff expansion is terrible. I am looking forward to a dodger/padre nl west race. If we had 7 teams in, we would know in March that the Padres were a playoff team even if they won 85 – makes the regular season so much better..
Pirates and…?
It won’t be enough to win the division, but I’ll take the over. The Padres are legit.
If they stay relatively healthy, the Padres should win 98+ games this year. Everyone on the team realizes that ownership has pushed all of their chips in and no one wants to be the guy who had the down year and cost them the chance at the playoffs. The Padres should be one of the funnest teams to watch this season; I hope they get a lot of nationally televised games so we can enjoy them out here on the East coast.
Preller gone if they miss the playoffs?
It all depends not on how good SD are, but due to the unbalanced schedule, it’s about how bad CO, AZ and SF are.
That’s a good O/U, 94.5 is right on.
Honestly I like the Padres to come out of the NL this year over the Dodgers. I know the Dodgers are loaded but it’s baseball and 162 is a lot of games and the Padres are just as hungry if not hungrier. That Padres lineup is no joke and they have good pitching as well so we’ll see. I also like the White Sox in the AL. If Robert takes the step and they add an arm to the rotation by the deadline they could make a run deep into the post season. Kopech is gonna end up being a big piece for them out of the bull pen. He could be a scary 8th inning guy leading up to Hendricks.
The Dodgers won the NL West by 6 games in only 60 games. With 162 games this year, they will win it by at least 12 games. More games will help the Dodgers because of their depth.
If every player who had a career year in 2020 meets or exceeds that threshold
&
If simultaneously every player who had a subpar 2020 goes back to at least their career norms
&
If Lamet stays healthy
&
If Tatis plays 150+
&
If the Dbacks are as horrible as they were in 2019
&
If Paddack both learns a 3rd pitch and re-learns his fastball
&
If Gore comes up mid year and wins ROY
Then they get above 95 wins. Totally reasonable
They didn’t even have enough confidence in Gore to come up when they were completely desperate. He got passed up by Weathers. Maybe just maybe Gore isn’t the next Kershaw like he was hyped up to be.
I agree Lurking. If Tatis doesn’t play 150, Gore doesn’t win ROY, Paddack doesn’t learn a 3rd pitch, Lamet gets injured, Pham repeats subpar 2020, the Dbacks are decent… then the Padres MIGHT win only 95 games. As a Dodgers fan, you better hope for that wish list.
Once again. Paced for 115 wins last year then added two former CYY winners to the roster. The idea the Padres are scary to dodger fans is funny
If there wasn’t a pandemic you know Dodger fans would still overrun Petco 9 times next year. You’re swinging up while jumping buddy
You are boasting and playing fortune teller at the same time. Not a winning combo. And certainly not an attractive trait in a human being.
P.S. It isn’t 2020. That “115” win total prediction is irrelevant this year. Fangraphs, which uses all sorts of mathematical models, predicts the Dodgers to win 99 games and the Padres to win 96 games. That is a 3 game difference. So, Fangraphs believes this will be a very close division race. Curious: what do you think Fangraphs gets wrong?
Not an attractive trait in a human being!!?? Relax guy, take a chill pill. We can revisit this in October when the Dodgers win the Division for the 9th time !!!
88 win team at best
The Padres could either be really good or really bad.
You could be right, or you could be wrong.
There’s no way they’re really bad. But thanks for the insight!
no, they wolnt be bad
Theodore. You could be wrong or you could be wronger.
I think at the end of the season well know how good the Padres were.
Good enough to be a wild card team. Overhyped and no where near the Dodgers.
A lot of ‘ifs’ have to happen for the Padres to win 90+ games. And, of course, it’s the Padres. They generally have one good season every decade then go back under .500 for another 9 years.
On paper they have the 3rd best roster in the NL. They are good enough to come out of the NL. But,that’s why they play the games.
They are legit but they have to play the Dodgers too many times for me to vote on the over. But the Padres could win four out of seven, which is more important.
yankee fan here. don’t know much about the nl west, but darvish/snell/limat/paddack/musgrove/gore looks like a playoff-worthy group to me
you know a team is fun when even machado can’t keep me from rooting for them
As a Yankee fan, it’s unseemly for me to look at their rotation. I get…worked up.
i’m getting worked up about jameson tallion
guy’s thrown 7 pitches and i’m already dreaming of cy young awards
Say what you want about Preller, he doesn’t do things halfass.
If Dinelson Lemet is healthy AND pitches like he did for 12 starts last year for an entire season, then yes, I could see them possible eclipsing 95 wins. Otherwise, Snell has been average for all but one of his seasons. Darvish has a history of pitching one good half of a season and one bad. He hasn’t had a complete stellar full season since before his surgery. Too many question marks for me.
@bruinblue. Bauer has a history bad seasons, Snell and Yu are more consistently good by comparison. Buehler Price and Urias are injury prone. Muncy and Bellinger were lousy last year, they may never return to former selves. Then there’s the closer…
I thought this was an article to assess the Padres chances of winning 95+ games?
The entire baseball world knows that LA is the team to beat in the division. They’ve been doing it for 8 seasons in a row.
By the way, how has Yu and Snell been more consistently good. If you use last year for Yu, you have to include Bauer’s. Please be specific.
@Brewer88 So none of SD’s pitchers have ever had a TJ or missed some games? EIGHT YEARS straight the Dodgers have won the division, That says that along with a great core they have plenty of depth to weather the injury storms that will surely arise. Tested and proven. And your “closer” argument is mute. The Dodgers have MULTIPLE guys that can and have closed games. Not even remotely an issue.
My point was taken by you. It’s easy to speculate about what could go wrong with Pads, and that’s pretty much all I’m reading here from Dodger fans who only expose theyre worried. Both the Padres and Dodgers look great on paper, next year the Pads look even better with Clevenger. But unforeseens will happen Tatis could get injured on a bat flip, Kershaw could quit and run for US Congress. On the flip side Pham could have best season of career and Price could win CY. Who knows? The past doesn’t matter at all, this season will play out. Let it. I’m a Giants fan with little to look forward to this year, but I have to say the Padres have my attention.
So Brewer, in conclusion, you believe 2020 progress only applies to Padres, while only the Padres will rebound to career norms?
Yu. Bellinger. Muncy. calling a blister a long term injury risk. Bauer. Jansen. Sure seems mighty one sided
@ Lurking
So you are annoyed that Brewer88 sees and mentions only the good things about the Padres and completely ignores or writes off their faults?
Now, who do I see on here doing the same thing for the Dodgers every time a Padres article comes up? That’s right, IT’S YOU! Annoying, isn’t it.
?
He’s getting a tad worked up, isn’t he? Seems like he might be overcompensating, trying to convince himself that his Dodgers are in trouble. It’s gonna be a fun season.
The thought that Bauer will go to the dodgers and have his worst season in his career is really one of your most laughable takes
Bellinger had an OPS above 800 2 of the 3 months last year. He’ll be fine
Muncy kept his batting eye and can be the 7th best hitter and we won’t miss a beat. He’ll be fine
Buehler had a blister. Oooooo super long term horrible injury there
Urias is 3 years removed from his shoulder surgery so injury prone is questionable at best
That o/u number is too high if you think the Padres are a 2nd place team, which they probably are
They’re terrible. They lost 1-0 vs the cubs today. Lol
The Pads look good on paper but they haven’t learned how to win yet.
Over a 162 game season you could also say the same about the Dodgers.
Hahahahahahaha. This is your dumbest post yet
All teams and especially pitchers have injuries, so when I look at the Padre pitching all things being equal (no injuries Dodgers no injuries) then I’d say the Dodgers have the better SPs, Gonsolin and May could be #2’s on most teams and they are young. As far bullpen goes both teams are stacked.
How hungry are the Dodgers to repeat? We already heard Kershaw say he wasn’t as motivated this year.
Which team is playing with more pressure to win? I’d say the Padres.
The Dodgers also have a wealth of depth should injuries come.
I’m a Giants fan and as hard as it is to speak well of the Dodgers there’s no question they are a better team, are they as exciting this year? No, that energy will play with the Padres abs that’s going to make for some good ball.
Padres win 91 games.
For those saying some Padres will regress, isn’t that also true of the Dodgers? Will the Dodgers’ under-performers all excel now? Are you factoring in how difficult it is to repeat advancing to the World Series?
The Dodgers have a far longer track record of a winning culture and success than the Padres..
I actually think the Dodgers have quite a few more players in line for bigger seasons than regression
Pollock Bellinger Muncy should be better
First time getting 162 with Mookie and Will Smith
Bullpens No doubt better
Sps are (somehow) better than ever and ever was the bar to begin with
And then you have guys like Rios Ruiz May and Gonsolin just kinda floating around ready to fill in any blank at a drop of a hat
Only see Seager possibly regressing and perhaps Turner not being such a stalwart in the regular season . In my estimation this is the best team on paper entering a year this entire century
I think the Padres made a mistake this off season by not address the outfield but that is just me. I like the pitching depth but a little concerned about the volatility of it with Darvish and Snell.
My biggest issue however is that I don’t like Preller as a GM so every move he makes that looks good on the surface, I take with a grain of salt. It may just be me, but I have a feeling that when the smoke clears, there is going to be glaring holes that will need addressed and the Padres will not have the payroll flexibility to address them…. Kind of like the Cubs the past three seasons.
I hear what your saying, theres a lotta window dressing here.
I as well wonder if it ties to Preller feeling the seat warm up under him .
Never a good position to strike from, now it all may work out; Tatis Snell have the Moxy, Machados a rock, they got talent in the arms but boy if it doesn’t things can turn quick sideways
Agree on OF…Pham claiming 80% is not a good look already- I think 450 abs is the ceiling. Grisham , who I like, still looks like he has some fleas to shed, a down year to replacement value isn’t outta the question here, Meyers is always a who knows – People questioned the Profar ink, I think it was almost a must with the questions you raised above and he will see upwards of 450+ abs this year even if hes not in the opening day lineup
Just curious, what would you do with Pham, Grisham and Myers? All are 20-25 HR/15-20 SB guys. Seems like a potentially good group to me. They resigned Profar and think Kim and Cronenworth can fill in as well.
Brew- Just let it ride…… Phams on his last year, Meyers will be next year, and Grish will make beans for a long long time
Im assuming next year they will pursue an OF for Phams spot that holds less risk
I agree its not a bad group when the skies are blue its more
1 Has big inj concerns
1 is massively overpaid and seems to take years off
1 is very inexp.
Pham himself has said he’s at 80% and that’s after a bad 2020.
Wil Myers was productive for the first time in two years, but not without his K’s.
Profar is their insurance, and I suppose they could make another trade at the deadline if they need help. But I’ve wondered if the should have done more as well.
Perhaps they could overpay Seattle one more time and net Haniger.
“ Wil Myers was productive for the first time in two years, but not without his K’s.”
Here’s the problem with Myers. Myers has had 50-60 game stretches just like his 2020 season since at least 2017 every year, and his season numbers have been mediocre at the end. He’s the streakyiest of streaky hitters, and 2020 simply wasn’t long enough for him to become old Wil Myers. He’s one of the regressions I feel is safest to expect
If they all play great and stay healthy, sure, they could go over 94 W’s. Cant really see either of those happening, though. They’ll be tough, but too many questions in that lineup to crown them with 95+.
My money would be on Myers reverting back being hard to watch. The new 2B floundering most of the season. Lamet finally submitting to TJ. And of course, Manny being lazy and losing focus, dragging the team down instead of leading them up.
They will definitely be fired up to give the Dodgers their best for those 19 games. But, yes, how will they manage their energy and focus for the other 140ish games. We have yet to see that.
Even Mlb schedule makers need an upgrade – 7 of those 19 come in the first 3 weeks….super lame
Schedules have gotten real boring the last 2-3 years. Maybe more. 3 weeks of only divisional play, then nothing for months. Then another huge string. Not to mention the series that go one home then right back to the other. Once a year is one thing. Twice a month is quite annoying
I actually like it…7 in the first 3 weeks, then 9 in the last 6 weeks, including scheduled games 157, 158, and 159. It will be interesting to see how much better or worse each team is near the beginning of the season versus down the stretch.
I do think there is still a much bigger gap than people realize, over a 162 season, but as is always the case — anything can happen in a 5 or 7 game series. I fully expect that if the Dodgers play well out of the gate, they will win the NL West by 10+ games over the Padres, and if they wanted to — push toward 116+ wins.
However, the Dodgers don’t play for win records, they play for WS rings. So my prediction is they finish with 104-108 wins. Padres will finish in low 90s. The one thing I think we can all agree on is that regardless, we would all love to watch a Dodgers-Padres NLCS this year. That would be awesome!
Unfortunately for Padres fans, it will be a rematch of last year and this time the Braves will never get within 1 win of the WS. Get used to it too, as the Dodgers in 2022 will become the first team since the 98-00 Yankees, to win thrice straight.
Now let me hear all the hate 🙂
I like your enthusiasm for your favorite team, 116 wins thou? Hahahaha! Even your 108 wins, because the Dodgers don’t care, is to high. I’d bet huge on the under if Vegas had that number.
What is the non-homer and actual vegas over/under? I’ll have to look it up. I’d guess 99.5 wins.
It won’t be the NLCS unless you think the braves mets or cards will win more games than the dodgers. Back to the old format, wildcard winner plays the team with the best record, so it’s a nlds best of 5 matchup
Dodgers homers should realize this post isn’t about them. The Padres are currently more popular and its eating their fans up.
104.5
94.5 is a good number for the over/under. The Dodgers should do a little better thou. That said, I give the Padres a good chance to come out of the NL, and maybe not even have to play the Dodgers in the playoffs. That’s baseball, and how fickle the playoffs can be…. Throw the records out!
They’re a good team and 3 of the teams in their division are probably going to be bad, but I’ll still take the under on 94.5. I think I would take the under on that number for every team except maybe the Dodgers, though.
Wanna know what’s really scary about the Padres? In 2022, they’ll have Mike Clevinger healthy, and Mackenzie Gore ready for big-league action. This means that Paddack or Musgrove could probably be traded just to make room for them.
Having Clevinger back from TJ isnt the same as having Clevinger at his best. Most guys are “back after about 16 months. Most guys dont contribute much until months after that. I’d be banking on ’23 if you are looking for Clev to look like you hope.
Until LA falls Padres are looking like a wildcard team. LA 99 wins SD 95.
Can this Dodger team win a World Series after a full season? That remains to be seen.
Ask Lou Pinella or Tony LaRussa if the most regular season wins mean a guaranteed World Series win. Wainwright and Yadi can tell you about what regular season wins mean in the playoffs too.
My gut feeling, this team disappoints and finishes third.
I took the under but it’s going to be damn close. 91/92 wins seems like a 2nd place win total.
Revisiting pages like these always turns out to be very enjoyable later on. It’s going to be even more hilarious when, 1) neither of the Dodgers or Padres reach the World Series and 2.) To think a team like the Dodgers are going to repeat when we haven’t had a repeat champ in 20 years.
When the field (Braves, Cardinals, Mets, etc.) go the World Series hopefully we can stop the nonsense every year of overhyping offseason winners and automatically assuming teams that win the most games (Dodgers) are a lock to go to the WS. Teams like the Dodgers are very predictable and nothing will change this year, assuming it’s a “normal” season. Dodger fans are going to be even more embarrassed when their team reinforces the narrative that they could only win in a shortened season. Bookmark this page. Btw, please stop with the “Depth”. That’s the most cringe-worthy buzzword on these boards lately. Depth doesn’t mean anything when the “depth” isn’t any good.
Nonsense !!?? Dont know if you follow baseball or not but the Dodgers have been to the World Series 3 out of the last 4 years !! They were also predicted to go to each of those World Series. If that isnt consistency, I dont know what is. Dodgers, most dominant team in baseball the last few years and WILL be there again !! We can look at your post in October and l will make my point !!
Preller didn’t DFA clubhouse and societal cancer, Tommy Pham. I think this will be a distraction to what’s going to happen this year.
The media has tried to frame his childhood and environment as a story of overcoming and victory. It is an albatross shackled to his mind, he is always going to have issues. His getting stabbed at a strip club is the least of them.
He’s got the victim chip on his shoulder, big time…
It shows that the front office are not willing to make the moves necessary to fine-tune the baseball machine called the Padres.
Pham is universally respected by teammates. The organization has voiced their collective belief that he is a very positive clubhouse presence since the day they acquired him. Your assessment is inaccurate.
Over 95, and more than LA
Might beat the Dodgers, you never really know for sure until the season gets underway