What kind of return are we looking at for Adam Frazier? He’s having a career best year, but I’m afraid he’s going to drop off pretty hard. He’s never been this good, and his expected stats (xSLG, xwOBA, DRC+) are more representative of what he’s done in the past. Still, there’s value to be had in a league average to 10% better than average hitter who plays a good 2B/OF who’s controllable through next season. Maybe a borderline top 100 prospect?
I’d be looking for something like the Jose Iglesias return from pre-2020. No top 100 guys, but a decent return for a guy that’s putting up a career year. Yes, Iglesias had one less year of service time than Frazier, but comparing their value at the time of their respective trades (or “would be” trades) makes me think they will be similar.
I was thinking maybe a bit more than a Jose Iglesias type return. A prospect in the top 120-130 range seems somewhat reasonable for Frazier. Imo, the Mets may be the biggest potential buyer for Frazier’s services. McNeil, Nimmo, Davis, and Conforto are out right now, Frazier is a very good landing spot.
I just wonder how hard the Mets will be buying at the deadline. Could the Pirates potentially get just straight up Brett Baty for Frazier? Bit of a big ask, but if the Mets might go all in, there’s a possibility. Seems to be at least one team every season that goes all in to secure some roster reinforcements, and after the Mets’ off-season, they seem like they could be putting all their chips on the table if they’re still in the position they’re currently in around July.
I’ll just say that you should pump the brakes a little right now. Maybe a Baty for Frazier trade *could* happen, but I think that would reflect more of how the Mets view Baty’s prospect caliber rather than the Pirates getting a “steal”, per se.
Frazier is a solid player that has ran into some great luck this season, and I just don’t see his luck turning into *that* great of a return for Pitt.
I know that I have a similar player love with Kyle Gibson of the Rangers, and I think he could push a top 100 prospect (maybe), but that’s also because I think that there’s not much regression to be had with what he’s doing. That sounds crazy because he has a near-2.00 ERA right now, but with what he’s been able to do with soft contact is amazing, and he’s seriously keeping batters off balance with his newfound cutter. A 3.00 ERA is what I think he’ll “regress” to, but even then that’s a terrific pickup for any team.
My point is: We both think that our respective player (Gibson and Frazier) will fetch a similar return, but only one of those guys is doing stuff that is fairly sustainable.
I think Frazier could get a respectable return, maybe a package headed by Mark Vientos, but not near Baty unless it’s 1 v 1, and even then it seems a little far off.
Is Vientos higher ranked than Baty? I was going off of FanGraphs rankings, and they have Vientos over Baty. I’d still take Vientos though. Frazier has consistently been about a league average batter throughout his career. Aside from his poor 60-game season in 2020, his wRC+ has never dipped below 97.
On the point of Gibson though, I just don’t see many teams willing to shell out a top 100 prospect for a pitcher who has a career 104 ERA-, and doesn’t get many swings and misses. Again, maybe some team will get super desprate, but Frazier’s been pretty consistent. You know what you’re going to get, year-in-year-out with him pretty much. Gibson is a bit more of a wild card.
I was basing it off of MLB pipeline which has him a good bit under Baty in terms of rankings. He’s just never had the same prospect prowess as Baty imo, which could be a fine headliner for a Frazier trade. Just depends how either team values him. I don’t value him as much as Baty.
In terms of Gibson, he’s having a pretty sustainable season, believe it or not. I know he’s been a consistent 4th starter throughout his career, but I’d love if you could look through his Savant page for a little bit. I don’t know if that came off as condescending – if it did I didn’t mean it that way – but it’s honestly crazy what he’s done this season. I’m huge on pitching, and it’s practically something I study at this point now that I’m deep into practicing it too. He’s not the same pitcher that he was with the Twins.
The Rangers have a history of taking pitchers with UC and rejuvenating them, and this is yet another example with Gibby. He’s added his lost weight, so along with his new cutter, he’s been a totally different guy this season. It’s amazing to watch him pitch now.
Btw, if you’re in the Baseball Savant mood, Kolby Allard is having a great season as well, and he’s another weird guy to look through on Savant. Low velo but tons of K’s.
Every GM in baseball has to laugh when people make statements like leery of giving up a Torres for Chapman . How many mlb teams repeat or win multiple titles ?? Astros ? Nope Red Sox ? Nope royals ? Nope nationals ? Nope Yankees win any since 2016? Nope . Cubs did
No, the Cubs didn’t. They won once and only once. Cubs are my second-favorite team and I thought they massively overpaid for Chapman at the time and still feel that way, even with the title. (Better bullpen management could have won the Series anyway, IMO, but we’ll never know that for certain.) The Cubs were understandably desperate, but I doubt other teams will repeat that mistake.
I’ll assume that comment is asking if the Yankees have won one since 2015 and stating the cubs have won a single WS since then otherwise that post is incorrect. The cubs have not won a WS since 2016 either.
Nothing is guaranteed. Not prospects. Not elite closers. It was a gamble and a historic overpay, but flags fly forever. I’d rather have that one win than having people cherishing and commercializing that stupid Eamus Catuli sign.
So Torres worked out. Stop pretending like Championships are bad.
@Rangers29. I don’t like dealing prospects and I remember the Teixeira fleecing quite well… Throw in Gallo and it might get done. Harris sounds like a future star but the Braves are probably good for years in the outfield.
Lol, that is most certainly not going to happen. Sure, we will give you three prospects for your two scrub, expensive vets. Hard pass. I wouldn’t do Harris by himself for that return.
I keep missing these chats. I’m curious what kind of return the White Sox would have to give up to land Haniger. Eloy figures to be back in mid-t0-late August, so he’ll have a month+ to shake off the rust. Robert has a chance of being back for the playoffs. With Haniger in RF, the Sox could go from the well-below-average unit out there now to one of the best in baseball. As for the M’s, their run differential shows they’re due for regression and they’re already 5 games back, so the playoffs are unlikely this year. Kelenic is struggling, but most top prospects do at first and they’ll have him, Lewis, and Rodriguez in the OF by the time they’re ready to contend. They don’t need Haniger, but they could use more young pitching, which the Sox have some of.
lmao on the AC comment. A+.
What kind of return are we looking at for Adam Frazier? He’s having a career best year, but I’m afraid he’s going to drop off pretty hard. He’s never been this good, and his expected stats (xSLG, xwOBA, DRC+) are more representative of what he’s done in the past. Still, there’s value to be had in a league average to 10% better than average hitter who plays a good 2B/OF who’s controllable through next season. Maybe a borderline top 100 prospect?
I’d be looking for something like the Jose Iglesias return from pre-2020. No top 100 guys, but a decent return for a guy that’s putting up a career year. Yes, Iglesias had one less year of service time than Frazier, but comparing their value at the time of their respective trades (or “would be” trades) makes me think they will be similar.
I was thinking maybe a bit more than a Jose Iglesias type return. A prospect in the top 120-130 range seems somewhat reasonable for Frazier. Imo, the Mets may be the biggest potential buyer for Frazier’s services. McNeil, Nimmo, Davis, and Conforto are out right now, Frazier is a very good landing spot.
I just wonder how hard the Mets will be buying at the deadline. Could the Pirates potentially get just straight up Brett Baty for Frazier? Bit of a big ask, but if the Mets might go all in, there’s a possibility. Seems to be at least one team every season that goes all in to secure some roster reinforcements, and after the Mets’ off-season, they seem like they could be putting all their chips on the table if they’re still in the position they’re currently in around July.
I’ll just say that you should pump the brakes a little right now. Maybe a Baty for Frazier trade *could* happen, but I think that would reflect more of how the Mets view Baty’s prospect caliber rather than the Pirates getting a “steal”, per se.
Frazier is a solid player that has ran into some great luck this season, and I just don’t see his luck turning into *that* great of a return for Pitt.
I know that I have a similar player love with Kyle Gibson of the Rangers, and I think he could push a top 100 prospect (maybe), but that’s also because I think that there’s not much regression to be had with what he’s doing. That sounds crazy because he has a near-2.00 ERA right now, but with what he’s been able to do with soft contact is amazing, and he’s seriously keeping batters off balance with his newfound cutter. A 3.00 ERA is what I think he’ll “regress” to, but even then that’s a terrific pickup for any team.
My point is: We both think that our respective player (Gibson and Frazier) will fetch a similar return, but only one of those guys is doing stuff that is fairly sustainable.
I think Frazier could get a respectable return, maybe a package headed by Mark Vientos, but not near Baty unless it’s 1 v 1, and even then it seems a little far off.
Is Vientos higher ranked than Baty? I was going off of FanGraphs rankings, and they have Vientos over Baty. I’d still take Vientos though. Frazier has consistently been about a league average batter throughout his career. Aside from his poor 60-game season in 2020, his wRC+ has never dipped below 97.
On the point of Gibson though, I just don’t see many teams willing to shell out a top 100 prospect for a pitcher who has a career 104 ERA-, and doesn’t get many swings and misses. Again, maybe some team will get super desprate, but Frazier’s been pretty consistent. You know what you’re going to get, year-in-year-out with him pretty much. Gibson is a bit more of a wild card.
If I’m the mets and trading Baty then the Pirates need to throw Rodriguez in the deal.
I was basing it off of MLB pipeline which has him a good bit under Baty in terms of rankings. He’s just never had the same prospect prowess as Baty imo, which could be a fine headliner for a Frazier trade. Just depends how either team values him. I don’t value him as much as Baty.
In terms of Gibson, he’s having a pretty sustainable season, believe it or not. I know he’s been a consistent 4th starter throughout his career, but I’d love if you could look through his Savant page for a little bit. I don’t know if that came off as condescending – if it did I didn’t mean it that way – but it’s honestly crazy what he’s done this season. I’m huge on pitching, and it’s practically something I study at this point now that I’m deep into practicing it too. He’s not the same pitcher that he was with the Twins.
The Rangers have a history of taking pitchers with UC and rejuvenating them, and this is yet another example with Gibby. He’s added his lost weight, so along with his new cutter, he’s been a totally different guy this season. It’s amazing to watch him pitch now.
Btw, if you’re in the Baseball Savant mood, Kolby Allard is having a great season as well, and he’s another weird guy to look through on Savant. Low velo but tons of K’s.
Btw, I remember you asking about what I wrote a while back, so here’s my latest write-up I’ve done:
lonestarball.com/2021/6/1/22417540/history-lesson-…
It’s a different style from all of my other writings I’ve done, but I liked the conversational aspect of it. I hope you enjoy it!
Bro OT. But how did you guys find Garcia. Guy is a stud. Rangers have some nice young pieces.
Wink and Casti All- Stars?!
Every GM in baseball has to laugh when people make statements like leery of giving up a Torres for Chapman . How many mlb teams repeat or win multiple titles ?? Astros ? Nope Red Sox ? Nope royals ? Nope nationals ? Nope Yankees win any since 2016? Nope . Cubs did
No, the Cubs didn’t. They won once and only once. Cubs are my second-favorite team and I thought they massively overpaid for Chapman at the time and still feel that way, even with the title. (Better bullpen management could have won the Series anyway, IMO, but we’ll never know that for certain.) The Cubs were understandably desperate, but I doubt other teams will repeat that mistake.
I’ll assume that comment is asking if the Yankees have won one since 2015 and stating the cubs have won a single WS since then otherwise that post is incorrect. The cubs have not won a WS since 2016 either.
Nothing is guaranteed. Not prospects. Not elite closers. It was a gamble and a historic overpay, but flags fly forever. I’d rather have that one win than having people cherishing and commercializing that stupid Eamus Catuli sign.
So Torres worked out. Stop pretending like Championships are bad.
The Sox won multiple.
I brought up a Kyle Gibson trade earlier in the comments, so here’s my hypothetical:
Rangers get: Kyle Muller, Michael Harris, and Bryce Elder
Braves get: Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy
Thoughts?
@Rangers29. I don’t like dealing prospects and I remember the Teixeira fleecing quite well… Throw in Gallo and it might get done. Harris sounds like a future star but the Braves are probably good for years in the outfield.
Lol, that is most certainly not going to happen. Sure, we will give you three prospects for your two scrub, expensive vets. Hard pass. I wouldn’t do Harris by himself for that return.
Cubs won in spite of Joe Maddon. Was a good trade to end a 108 year drought.
I keep missing these chats. I’m curious what kind of return the White Sox would have to give up to land Haniger. Eloy figures to be back in mid-t0-late August, so he’ll have a month+ to shake off the rust. Robert has a chance of being back for the playoffs. With Haniger in RF, the Sox could go from the well-below-average unit out there now to one of the best in baseball. As for the M’s, their run differential shows they’re due for regression and they’re already 5 games back, so the playoffs are unlikely this year. Kelenic is struggling, but most top prospects do at first and they’ll have him, Lewis, and Rodriguez in the OF by the time they’re ready to contend. They don’t need Haniger, but they could use more young pitching, which the Sox have some of.
How the hell are the Redsox so good again?
They regressed to the mean.
You have to be good, reasonably healthy and lucky. They’ve been all three for a majority of the season so far.
“ Would it be possible for a 40-man roster to have more than 14 players on the 10-day DL? Feels like we’re headed there”
This is what the 60 day IL is for. Someone will get moved over to open a spot.
Now, I think mlb could consider a one year amendment to the 40 man in terms of injured guys, but that’s a slippery slope