We’re a little more than six weeks away from the trade deadline, and it appears July is going to be a month of difficult decisions for the Reds front office. Cincinnati sits at 32-31, third place in the NL Central. They’re slightly ahead of the Cardinals and five games back of the Cubs and Brewers, who are tied for the division lead. With the Giants surprisingly leading the star-studded Dodgers and Padres out west, the two wild card spots will be hard to come by in the National League.
By most measures, the Reds look like an average team. Their record is marginally above .500, while their -10 run differential is eighteenth among the league’s thirty clubs. FanGraphs’ rest of season projections have the Reds playing at an 80-82 pace; when coupled with their current record, they’d land right at 81-81 if they perform at that projected level from here on out.
Finishing .500 wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs, but the Reds also aren’t that far away from the postseason picture. The Cubs and Brewers have played well to this point but each has some obvious deficiencies on the roster (starting pitching for Chicago, the bottom of the lineup in Milwaukee). It doesn’t seem either team will run away with the division. Indeed, FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Reds a 14.6% chance of making it to the postseason- unlikely, but not out of the question.
It’s possible the team will just define itself one way or another in the coming weeks. They still have 40 games to play before the July 30 deadline. If they go 25-15, they’d look like legitimate division contenders. A 15-25 swoon would make them an obvious seller. But what if Cincinnati plays .500 ball over the next month and a half- as they have so far and as the projections expect them to the rest of the way? The Reds would still be a long shot at that point, with playoff odds likely a bit lower than they are now (since they’d have even less time to make up ground on the teams in front of them). But they wouldn’t be completely out of contention, and selling at the deadline would be a tough sell to the fanbase.
Cincinnati suffered through six consecutive losing seasons from 2014-19. The organization made a concerted effort to end that run late in the 2019 season, acquiring Trevor Bauer with an eye towards 2020 and signing Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos the following offseason. They did snap the streak of below-average records in last year’s shortened season, but it took a playoff expansion for them to get into the postseason, where they were swept by the Braves without scoring a run. (That marked the 25th consecutive season since the Reds last won a playoff series, the longest active draught in MLB).
They’ve already lost to Bauer to free agency, and Castellanos could soon depart himself. The 29-year-old is having a fantastic season, sitting on a .361/.416/.635 line with 13 home runs in 255 plate appearances. Given that level of performance, it’d take a massive collapse or injury for him not to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM in guarantees on his contract. Castellanos opting out wouldn’t preclude the Reds from re-signing him, of course, but it’s not clear ownership would be willing to sign off on another significant outlay.
The Reds slashed payroll from $147MM in 2020 (prior to prorating) to $122MM this season on the heels of last year’s revenue losses. Next year, they’ll still be on the hook for substantial salaries to Joey Votto ($25MM), Moustakas ($16MM), Eugenio Suárez ($11.286MM) and Sonny Gray ($10.867MM), per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before accounting for arbitration raises for a group including Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo. Unless ownership is willing to again increase spending on player payroll, it could be tough to commit to a raise for Castellanos.
If the Reds aren’t going to re-sign Castellanos, there’s a case they should field offers on him this summer. As the sport’s third-best qualified hitter (behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Winker), he’d draw no shortage of interest. Castellanos would almost certainly command a prospect return greater in value than the compensatory draft pick the Reds would receive if they allowed him to depart as a free agent after making a qualifying offer. Trading away one of the game’s top bats would be a tough sell to a fan base that has seen very little recent success, though, particularly if the Reds remain only a handful of games back in the division race.
Maybe the team’s performance will make the Reds direction obvious by July 30. If they continue to play at the level they have been, however, their front office will have some very difficult decisions to make.
Castellini has cried poor all year and made the Reds get rid of 2 of their best bullpen arms to save money. There is zero chance they look to buy. Hopefully that pathetic man will sell the team.
Or admit he has no clue, humble himself, and then hire capable people to run the team like most owners do.
They have capable people in important positions; they’re just stuck with Bob having the final say and giving a rigid budget
For a variety of reasons, he is joined by Dick Monfort, Bill DeWitt, and Tom Ricketts. Am I forgetting anyone? Should be at least 4 teams on the market right now. Monfort has no clue, much like Castellini, while DeWitt and Ricketts continue to hold on dearly to their teams even though they swear there is no money to be made in even the best of times, and claim to be losing money on a regular basis. It guess it amazes me that people line up like it’s the day before Thanksgiving at Walmart any time a team goes up for sale if it’s such a burden to own a MLB franchise
For a variety of reasons, he is joined by Dick Monfort, Bill DeWitt, and Tom Ricketts.
The Cards have been one of the better teams over the years. I’m not sure why he is included.
And Ricketts has been one of the best owners in baseball. Right now, the Cubs are headed towards their 4th 1st place finish in 6 years, have been in the playoffs 6x in 7 years (including this year), and have a WSC.
I am a fan but wait for the eggs to hatch. Historically this team has always ran out of gas in August and September. Ownership wanted to be rid of Darvish. Save money mode. I understand he were fearful there would be no gate. Might come back to bite them
Darvish also is a significant injury risk. A year ago, he was considered one of the worst contracts in BB. Cash always plays a role, but given that the Cubs held onto everyone else, this looks like they wanted to offload their risk.
And given that Davies has out-pitched Darvish since the start of May, it still looks like a good trade to me.
DeWitt is not a bad owner. He could have spent more 15 years ago but the last few years he’s spent plenty just spent it poorly. Thats the irony is the more he spends the more people complain he’s cheap. It’s more a talent evaluation issue.
Yeah I don’t really get this consistent narrative that Dewitt is cheap. The criticism is misguided. It’s fair to say their talent eval isn’t that great anymore (our former players are good on other teams) or they drink their own kool-aid and hype up marginal players to the media. But the cardinals have a top 10 payroll dude, they just have a lot of money tied up in bad contracts.
In which season are you referring that the “team ran out of gas in August and September”?
Once Ricketts ordered and went along with the salary dump and then was ok with the Darvish trade – Ricketts showed his true loyalty is to the almighty dollar. I’m totally fine with Ricketts selling the team.
People on this site like to cry that the owners are cheap without actually looking at the amount the teams spend.
I have plenty of issues with the Ricketts, but I find myself having to defend them on here because people make stupid claims.
The Iron Sheik agrees about the humble part.
Who on earth is “Castellini?”
Time for all the trade proposals for young cost controlled players the Reds shouldn’t even consider trading if they are looking towards the future. Let them trade their best player to my favorite team, for less than they’re worth.
Sonny Gray and Jesse Winker for Riley Adams and Tj Zeuch, who says no?
No way the reds agree to that
Dude, do you really think he was being serious?
Don’t we have enough OFs?
I would think that’s a light package but I too like the idea of going after Gray. I think Kirk would probably have to be involved vs Adams
I know, I was just responding to the original comment lol.
Sorry I read your comment first. Should have known better
Wow terrible for the reds.wtf
Did somebody turn off the sarcasm realization button today or what?
I Beg To Differ
->look at OP comment
->reread trade proposal
Reese Mcguire and Sean Reid Foley or the Reds walk.
Foley is with NYM
You expect people to actually read for context before responding? You have high hopes.
I do admire the Reds’ dedication to fielding a team with as many former 3B playing as possible (Moustakas, Suarez, India, Cadtellanos, Farmer) but I have to think they could stand to pay more attention to defense. They rank 26th in MLB in team DRS according to fielding bible. What they really should be looking for as they try to retool is a young SS prospect who can help their defense get back to a more sensible alignment.
They have a high K staff so some of the defensive shortcomings (of which there are many) is mitigated. Luckily, Jose Barrero (formerly Garcia) has rebounded from being completely overmatched last year in MLB and is killing the ball in AA. He carries a decent glove as well. He could make his way back up in July/August
Don’t forget to add Senzel & Manager David Bell among the former 3B.
Tucker Barnhart also used to be a little league 3rd baseman and Joey Votto changed is position on Mlb the Show to 3rd base. Jesse Winker drafted himself in fantasy as a 3rd baseman which while a bold move, has yet to pay off. While his range factor is beyond historically legendary, his fielding at the hot corner is atrocious. It’s like he’s nowhere close to the bag and hasn’t recorded a single put out at 1st base
Castellanos is 100% opting out and reds won’t recommit so this is his last year in cincy. That’s a great reason to go for it this year as castellanos and winker have turned into on the premiere 2/3 threats in the league.
The cubs and Brewers, both good teams, won’t hold pace w Dodgers and Padres all season. They will fizzle for shizzle throw StL in there and realistically the only buyer, the means of finance and prospers, are the cubs.
Reds don’t have to acquire talent from other teams- all they have to do is continue to bring up the talent they have. Santillian and Guit already up and performing. Yet Greene and Lodolo will both add more value to reds as nearly any contender can add as their biggest weakness is pitchers keeping reds in games when they get down a couple runs. And reds just promoted Greene to 3A.
This team can compete and win the central. Hope ownerships tight pockets don’t manipulate to much service time and bring up the players they need to do so !
Not entirely sure what “fizzle for shizzle” means (I’m over 20 years old), but I agree that the Brewers should be all over Winker or Castellanos. Winker is having an amazing year
For shizzle is a term from about 25 years ago
By: Snoop Doog
Who are you agreeing with lol ? Brewers have no prospect wealth and little funds. Maybe devin Williams for castellanos but only if reds are sellers and are completely out of it. Brewers have nothing to offer for winker.
Castellanos will get a QO when he opts out too. So reds have no need to trade him as they’ll get an end of 1st rd pick for him
The Red aren’t moving Winker unless a teams pays more than what he is worth and right now that is very high. He is cheap and controllable. They could theoretically sell off some of their unflattering contracts (Castellanos/Suarez) and still hit FA this offseason with a splash in hopes to compete next year.
I also hate how everyone (by everyone I mean KCJ and the talking heads at MLBnetwork) is obsessed with Winker, but Castellanos is just as good (he has actually been ok in RF this year while Winker is a trash LF and will be a DH asap) but gets overlooked by everyone. He wasn’t lying when he said he didn’t get the recognition he deserved.
The death of the English language.
So, what language are we currently typing in?
I’d be shocked if the Reds traded a talent like Castellanos within their division. Bad enough to trade Castellanos to the Dodgers or Padres where you’d have to face him a few times a season. No way do they trade him to the Cubs or Brewers where they’d be destroyed by him 20 times a year. At least without an obscene overpay in prospects….
Your comment reminds me of the last three years of Jim Edmonds career when he played for the Cubs, Brewers and Reds in that order.
haha!! Cubs and Brewers are just going to fade out and for some random reason the Reds are just going to take over? sure…….. lol
In typical Reds fashion they will hang onto everyone and get nothing in return
For fear of upsetting the fan base, of course.
Castellanos for JD Davis straight up, both JD and Castallanos are bad defensivly but hit great. Castellanos is a bit better offensivly and JD Davis has multiple years of team control, fair trade
Not even close lol.. JD doesn’t have the track record of Castellanos .. And JD is already 28..
Not even close lol.. JD doesn’t have the track record of Castellanos .. And JD is already 28..
Age doesn’t matter; control years do. Cincy gets 3.5 years of Davis for .5 of Castellanos. Steal for Cincy.
Yes except Davis will spend more than half that time on the IL.
Lol please yes that’s fair let’s do it! Sorry but we have to be somewhat realistic…with that said I’d love to have Castellanos for JD…
I don’t think J.D. has quite the trade value that you think he has. Maybe I’m wrong, but lets just say I knew you were a Mets fan when I read the comment (didn’t notice your moniker either until after).
Castellanos and Sonny Gray to the Mets in a package built around Dom Smith and JD Davis.
The Reds have a LF and 11 3Bs. Why would they want Smith or Davis?
If I’m the Mets, I’d rather have Dom Smith and and JD Davis for the next 3 years, than 2 months of Castellanos and Gray.
If I’m the Reds and I’m willing to rebuild, I don’t want a 28 year old 3B who wont be on my team when we’re good again.
Take off your GM hat and bury it in the yard.
You may have to bury your GM hat also because Sonny Gray comes with 1.5 years of control and a club option for 2023. He’s much more than a rental.
I agree with what Steve Nebraska said
Yankee Steve please run away from a hat your head cannot hold. Sonny Gray has two years remaining and will not be a free agent at the end of the year.
Cosmo, you shouldn’t. He’s wrong. Almost always wrong. Aim higher.
Dom Smith and JD Davis so the Reds can have 2 more defensively challenged corner players. That describes most of their roster, so who knows.
JD David is the Mets version of Miguel Andujar. A guy who everyone knows is terrible defensively but who they swear has value because they can supposedly hit. Yet for some reason neither one is good enough to start for their current team. You are trying to trade a backup for a starter.
Sadly I would say Andujar has more value.
Lol wow no
I wouldn’t touch Davis until we figure out what’s up with a “sprained hand” he can’t even begin rehab 6 weeks later
Him and Nimmo riding that IL train baby.
Please no…. Horrible trade for the Mets. And yes Ik castellanos is the better player.
Metsfan your loyalty is admirable I’ll give you that
Being unsure of their next move is the natural state of being for the Reds.
If recent history repeats itself they’ll figure out a way to minimize the returns should they be sellers, and the returns they do get will be sketchy. If they’re buyers we all know their #1 target should be Trevor Story. The likelihood of that happening, unfortunately, is almost nonexistent.
At this point, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, I would trade Suarez and Aquino for some bullpen pitching. Bring up Garcia to SS. Move Antone to SP. And mix in HG and NL into the bullpen and see what happens.
Sorry but that would be a big mistake. You’re not getting back what you’re wanting with those guys right now. You completely zapped the RH power off the roster. Naquin would have the best return if you were trying to fix the pen. It would also open up a roster spot for Shogo to play everyday, and this team really needs a leadoff hitter.
This. And while Antone back to SP would be great, his latest forearm issue, even if it’s not serious, is cause for concern
As for leadoff, I think India can be that guy. He has the right gamer mentality. He needs to learn to work the count and only swing at good pitches but he’s still just a rook, he’ll figure it out
I like India to, but being a rookie lead off hitter is a bit of a concern. Not that he can’t do it, but it’ll take a special rookie to be that guy. I’d much rather have India in a lower pressure spot in the order.
Angels should offer up Adell or Marsh as the highlight of a package for Castillo. He is exactly what they need and there’s no guarantees either of those guys becomes what you hope they will.
Also, I’m not so sure Castellanos opting out is such a slam dunk. I know he’s been good but he’s the exact type of player that has suffered the most during free agency over the last few years, and when someone finally did open their wallet for a player like him, it backfired severely (Ozuna.) Not sure a team would be willing to offer much more or much longer than what he currently has.
Is there any guarantee that Castillo will be good again?
There’s certainly no guarantee of anything, but I would generally rather bet on a player with an established track record of being an above-average major league player than on the potential of someone who hasn’t shown it at that level. That’s just my take. I get both sides of it, and for sure there are tons of examples of teams getting bit by trading good young players. But I would rather take a chance on someone who’s already shown they can do it, especially in an area of need. The track record of teams that traded prospects for established players usually favors the team acquiring the established player.
Cincinnati opened their wallet for a FA exactly like him. It seemed to work out. Lol! There is no guarantee of Castillo being good again, which is why you may be able to acquire him at a discount for a suspect prospect.
I’d hesitate on Adell. I’ve been mostly pro-Adell, mostly on age. But he is back in one of his strikeout tears again. He has a 35/1 K/W in his last 104 ABs, in AAA. He’s 22 now, so the excuse of being underage is starting to disappear.
And we don’t have to look too far for a cautionary tale here; these very Reds and Nick Senzel. The story isn’t closed on him, obviously, but he could have been part of any number of trades for players I’m sure the Reds would desperately like to have right now. Instead, his stock has dropped so far he’s basically impossible to trade at this point. Not because a team wouldn’t want him, but because the Reds would be selling so low it wouldn’t even be worth it.
I’m going to chalk Senzel up to the Cincy FO having no idea what is going on. Starting in 2022, the Reds should decide on one player per position. Play India and Senzel at 2nd/3rd or vice versa. Trade Moose for someone else’s overpriced SS.
This is about the most disorganized team I’ve ever seen.
I’d like to blame the Reds, but Senzel just can’t stay healthy. It doesn’t matter his position, he has been injured diving for balls, running bases, just existing with vertigo, etc…
I agree the Reds should trade Castillo, but not at the deadline. His value has taken a major hit, and the only way to bring it back is a long string of good outings. If he finishes the year well, his value will go up a lot. He’ll still have 2 years of control.
If the Reds are out of it, the only deadline trade I really pursue is Miley. Castellanos could opt out, and then the Reds could give a qualifying offer on him. That would probably net the team as good of a prospect, as they would in trading him. I’d also look to move Mousetakes, but I don’t know if there is any market for him.
I’d like to see AA on the phone for Gray. Not sure what it would take, but I’d be interested in that.
Atlanta also needs a shut-down closer.
Atlanta also needs a CFer and a LFer
Cincy has to tank hard. They have a lot of good, young talent, but they don’t look like a playoff team. They should’ve sold in the off-season, but that boat has sailed.
Trade Castillo, Gray, Suarez, and Castellanos. The team has a lot of core talent remaining, and might be competitive in 2023. If they hold onto these guys until free agency, then that tells the fans that their goal is to be .500-.525 in perpetuity.
I think the Braves are in a similar boat but everyone seems to think the Braves are gonna figure it out. For example, is a non zero chance that Freddie Freeman could be dealt before the deadline. (Yes, unlikely, but still). He hasn’t been extended and in case people haven’t noticed, the Braves are one of only 3 teams that haven’t had a better than .500 record. The Braves are borderline time to hit the panic button.
I was fairly confident that the Braves were the second best team in the East (within a shout of NYM) to start the year, but I think the struggles so far, the injury concerns, and the emotional blow regarding Ozuna might be a serious problem for them. the good thing is the team has a great young core with pieces on thr way, so i think a retool wouldnt hurt.
I admire your confidence in the face of the estimators projecting Atlanta with a losing record since the start of the season.
If they get whipped this coming homestand then it’s sellin’ time. Might be able to get something for Morton, Smyly, Greene, and Martin, TDA is still hurt. Not gonna get anything for him. Try and find some sucker GM to take Will Smith. I think Ozuna will never play another game for them. Who knows if Soroka will ever be healthy going forward? Thankfully after this year Ender’s contract is up. If they wind up with a below .500 season then maybe that leads the team to finally firing Snitker. I haven’t been that impressed with AA either. He’s starting to strike out on these 1 year deals. The contract to Smith hasn’t been very wise either.
Gray, Suarez and Castillo could certainly be moved and return some major league talent. I think the emphasis should be on reducing payroll ONLY if the intention is to be heavily involved in free agent activity in 2022.
As always, they seem ‘close’, but does ownership care enough about post season aspirations and that additional revenue? 2021 May be one of the most difficult barometers of measuring post season prospective. It seems the teams with the most depth may be better suited than the most super star laden.
You can’t win it all if you don’t get there.
Reds won’t be active in 22 FA. Set the bar low or be prepared for disappointment
I don’t think they really need to be active in the FA market in 22. If you assume no trades are made, and options are not picked up, the Reds have many replacement parts.
(P) Castillo, Gray, Mahle, Lodolo, Greene, Antone, Gutierrez, Santillan, Sims, Garrett, 3 RP
(C) Stephenson (1B) Votto (2B) India (3B) Suarez (SS) Barrero (DH) Mousetakes (OF) Winker, Naquin, Shogo, Aquino, Senzel, 3 bench
Reds should deal Moustakas to the Blue Jays, use that money for a shortstop in the offseason. Jays need a third baseman and have payroll flexibility. If Castellanos walks they have money to go after pitching.
If the Jays would take Moustakas, I’d do that in a heartbeat. I like the guy, but he’s on the downside of his career and he’s expensive. Why tie up that money on him, especially if India and Suarez are competing with him for ABs at 3B and 2B? The Reds need one fewer third basemen on the roster.
Should definitely sell IMO. NL West will have a firm grasp on the wild card, and even if the Giants fizzle out the Brewers/Cubs are better and Braves still have the chance to heat up.
These are multi million dollar operations run by a bunch of nerds with college degrees that don’t have a clue about baseball. That’s the problem. It’s all corporate nonsense. The guys making decisions don’t have a clue.
You don’t indicate which teams are being run by nerds, and which are run by old-timers. If I had to take a guess, it would be the teams without the nerds that are being run into the ground.
Assuming the Reds become sellers this year, are they looking at any window of becoming competitive in the future? When that window might open should dictate who they go after in trade, current or near majors-ready players, vs. prospects/QO.
There window is now. They are in the process of bringing up 5 top 1/2 of first round picks which isn’t the core of the team yet. So they aren’t going to give away talent like Castillo or suarez just to be sellers. They’ll keep trying to rebuild a la Rays/A’s style.
So that leaves them with really only Castellanos as a trade candidate working under the safe assumption that he will opt out.
So they aren’t going to give away talent like Castillo or suarez just to be sellers. They’ll keep trying to rebuild a la Rays/A’s style.
TB & Oakland don’t have the same style. Oakland tends to keep their players longer. And TB’s style is definitely to sell as value maxes out, so that’s kind of the opposite of what you said.
Our schedule turns brutal starting today. until the AS break: 7 each with Milwaukee and San Diego. 4 with Atlanta and 3 with the Cubs. Think this column will be answered well before then
That’s a good call. It can swing either way for the Reds. If they get on a hot streak they can get right back in. If they Reds sell they have some players that should bring back a good return. So far my NL Central prediction at the beginning of the season is way off. I had:
1) St. Louis
I still like your picks. I don’t believe in Chicago, no pitching. Milwaukee no offense. St Louis is annoyingly good at turning around a bad start. Cincy has been hanging around with an unusually high amount of injuries. If they get 1 legit bullpen arm, get a little lucky with injuries, and promote Greene and Lodolo to the pen, they can still pull off a playoff run.
Now I get that there will be a lot of people who would hate this idea I would love to see a trade in the realm of Moustakas and India to the the Brewers for say Cain, Anderson,Bettinger,and maybe a Zavalous.
Now I get that there will be a lot of people who would hate this idea
Because it’s garbage. Cain’s 35 and injury prone. Anderson and Bettinger are soft-tossing nobodies and idk even know what a “zavalous” is.. Moose alone is worth more. I sure hope you’re a Brewers fan because there’s no sense in posting this otherwise.
Well, Moose has no value on his current contract. But that’s not getting India.
Trade within the division? I don’t see that happening when both teams are within striking distance, now and next season
Not for nothing, Stubby, but the joke about trading your worst four players, is played out.
The last paragraph says it all. they’ve won 9 of 13 and are above. 500 for the first time since April, and that’s with Votto, Moose, Miley, Indy and now Gray and TJ missing time with injuries. Alot can happen in 6 weeks. Even if they do stink it up at around. 500, I’d still have to be overwhelmed to deal a young pitcher like Castillo who is only arb eligible this off-season for the first time. Tough schedule ahead yes, but we’ve all seen teams catch fire and this year it could be this one.
to deal a young pitcher like Castillo who is only arb eligible this off-season for the first time
Did you research that statement?
No, I didn’t. Did he recieve arb this last off season? If so, my bad. I’d still hate to deal him…
Yes, he did. That said, I am re-thinking my position about them having a s/t tank. I guess it depends on their plans for Greene and Lodolo. If they think those two are legit 2022 SPs, it might make sense to keep everyone.
If the Reds are sellers, it seems like they should be selling on Castellanos who’s value may never be higher. Time for the Reds to get over on a prospect rich team like the Padres for a good haul and take advantage of Preller’s need to win now. Let the package start with CJ Abrams and go from there…
.5 years of Castellanos isn’t going to get you Abrams.
.5 year of a potential MVP and the compensatory pick. That should put them in the mix for prospects on any team’s top 10 list.
Look back at the trade for Texiera to ATL for comparison.
I want to see the Reds sell if the tread water or less. They need to fix this roster and get some compensation in the process. The compensatory pick alone would be a huge miss.
What makes you think that something that happened 14 years ago has any bearing on today’s trade market?
You aren’t talking about a team’s top 10 prospect with Abrams, you are talking about a top 10 prospect in mlb. Those players do not get traded for a half season of anyone.
Maybe….just maybe the Reds could pry away Campusano from the Pads in a deal for Castellanos.
But you’re dreaming ifyou think you’re getting Abrams.
Abrams was not available in any deal last year for multi year controlled TOR starters.
He won’t be available for 2-3 months of any outfielder.
Didn’t the Yankees get Torres from the Cubs, for half a season of Chapman? I do agree, teams have been giving up far less for rentals, no matter how good that rental may be.
@ksoze Just because the Cubs made a stupid trade 5 years ago doesn’t mean the Padres have to now.
@Grand Salami Padres don’t get a comp pick if they trade for Castellanos. Being traded makes him ineligible to receive a QO. Both from the Reds and from whoever they trade him to.
Taking on the Castellanos contract would be pretty risky. The new team can’t offer him a QO if he opts out, since he began the season in Cincy. But if he gets hurt or his performance falls off the team is on the hook for 2 more years at $34M. That’s a whole lot of downside risk for just a mid-season rental.
Seems like the new team would need to renegotiate the contract to make this work.
If he opts out then it’s equivalent to rejecting a qualifying offer.
He’s on pace for about 6 WAR this season. An injury that prevents him from opting out would probably end up being a windfall long term. He’s playing (in terms of value) at more than double his cost this season.
Opting out for another team is not like rejecting a QO. There’s no compensatory draft pick.
If there’s an injury and he expects to fully recover by next season he’ll still opt out. The $34M for 2022-2023 only comes into play if there’s a bigger injury that could harm his long term performance. It’s insurance for Castellanos with very little upside for the new team.
If he opts out of his contract it triggers the QO and the pick. This is established.
@Grand Salami that’s only if he isn’t traded. Players who were traded in-season are not eligible to receive qualifying offers.
Castellanos is not renegotiating any contract. He’ll opt out or not depending on whether or not he thinks he can beat the current contract but that’s it.
I could see sonny gray to angels for adell.
Then trade naquin to yanks for loaziga and another BP controllable arm.(abreu)
I’d love to see reds trade a 3B to milw (I know very unlikely) Suarez for hader+??
And maybe even senzel(as a player to be named later to pirates for Frazier and rodriquez.
That would solve reds Bullpen issues
Lower payroll. CF of future while allowing shogo and the punisher to man CF. And Reds have capable starters either just arriving or close on way
Those are interesting trades, i like them, but I don’t see so many interdivisional trades happening.
The Reds need a young SS the Mets have 2 and they won’t be coming up with Lindor there for another 10 years maybe lol
Reds: Mauricio or Vientos, Peterson and Cano ( Mets paying 1/2 of his contract for ‘22 & ‘23)
For Suarez and Gray
Reds get their young SS and young Pitcher and saving $10 mil in the next 2 years with the Mets paying 1/2
Mets get a 3b and SP and rid themselves of Cano
Reds have their SS of future killing AA right now. Jose Barrero. Changed his name from Garcia recently. He will be up prob early next yr. or poss late this
Two more seasons with Moustakas and Votto on the infield, along with Suarez and India. Reds will need to start platooning, or they can hope to move one of them to DH, to make room for Barrero.
Castellanos and a AAA pitching prospect for Haniger. Do it now.
The Reds are in a tough spot. Nobody’s asking, but if I were running the team, my next moves would depend entirely on Castellanos’ signability.
Aside from Votto, the Reds aren’t holding any bad contracts. Suarez and Gray are on GREAT deals. Winkler and Castillo are still arbitration eligible. India is establishing himself as a long-term centerpiece, and Greene and Lodolo are arriving soon.
The point is, development/contract-wise, the Reds are at the point most teams are TRYING to get to – except as it applies to the bullpen. You don’t just blow this squad up.
All that said, assuming Castellanos is opting out, a decision needs to be made. Do they take a chance on letting him hit the market? Do they acknowledge they can’t sign him, but keep his bat for one more stretch run? Or do they give up on this year, and flip Castellanos to a contender?
If the Reds could get an extension done NOW with Castellanos, the future would be pretty certain.
Moose is a poor contract and shogo contact is also not good
Whats wrong with Shogo’s contract?
He’s making 7 million for the next year and a half just to pinch hit or be a defensive sub halfway through the game, they have way to many outfielders. Winker, Akiyama, Aquino, Castellanos, Senzel (when healthy) and Heineman
That’s mismanage to, not a bad contract. Shogo’s contract is fine, the Reds have an inept FO.
Mismanagement, don’t know why it autocorrected lie that
Wondering where Reds would be now if Suarez, Castillo and Gray were not having a ridiculously bad year and not just their average year? If Moustakas and Senzel were seemingly always hurt? I would say first place and we would not be having any trade discussions. I doubt there is enough time for them to bounce back. Trade Castellanos before he gets hurt and looses all his trade value. We have a gang of decent outfielders and need solid relief pitchers. Castellanos is having a career year. Doubt we will see this kind of year from him again. Nice possible fit for trade to Yankees. Don’t they need an outfielder?
Cap & Crunch
You would have to take back (Britton ) assuming they want to trade him ) Yanks would need to have salaries matched closely
Britton and Frazier +lottery for Cast has some bones Imo. Altho trading a Lh bat for another righty might not be super appealing to Yanks
but the talent should be (Maybe they’d view Cast as the new Judge who’d already have a reasonable contract under wraps then they’d just roll Judge thru arb and say good-bye?
Britton inked for 14 mill next year tho which could be looked at as a boon or detriment based on Reds management.
They seemed to think Raisel at 9.5 was bad sooooo IDK….
Yanks might not even be in to gamble this year as well – Good post of yours so I thought Id play along
Hey thanks for the nice reply. Not sure Britton’s status. Is he only one year left on contract? 9.5 for Raisel I. was too much for a closer who was really good or really bad seemingly on a daily basis. Reds have enough of those guys who make a third of what he made. I don’t think the Reds would take back another outfielder we have plenty of them. I don’t know who else the Yanks would have for solid middle relief pitching. Only other area of need is SS. I assume Torres is off limits even though he looks like he is having a poor year so far?
Cap & Crunch
Yea just a salary match really, which I think Yanks will need –
Britton is signed next year for 13 mill and then he falls off the ledger
Not much the Yanks would have to trade in the inf…Anjuar maybe?
Yea if their not interested in Frazier (and I’m not sure they should be) idk if Yanks would be best match this season…maybe in the offseason assuming he opts in which is dicey at this point
Suarez average is down but his homers rbi and runs are all on track. Not sure about his defense but he hasn’t been terrible. Neither has gray; he just can’t stay healthy.
Been a bad year for nearly every team w injuries too.
Cap & Crunch
Interesting topic and a lotta good posts (This wont be 1 of them)-
I think this all depends on the unknown variable of what they plan the 22 payroll to max out at – W/out that info its kinda hard to chose a direction here but what fun is that
What Id Do – Not much tbh, at least right now- Have about 50 days until final decisions need to be made. Id re-access in 30+ days ish …Lotta words for not much, sorry yall!
** I will say the Div seems open next year (if not this one as well) – Cubs have some hard questions next year and Mil always skates on the margins (altho w sharp skates!) so Id want to at least give 22 a shot in some manner and not fully tear down. They will probably walk a tight line whichever direction they go and its probably the right move imo
The Reds shouldn’t have traded all of their top prospects for one season each of Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Trevor Bauer. They botched their rebuild in my opinion, tried to rush it a bit and it ended up backfiring on them. They would have been better off continuing to let their top prospects develop (Josiah Gray, Jeter Downs, Taylor Trammell, etc) and waiting another season or two to start handing out big contracts to free agents, instead of ones that seemed a bit desperate and rushed like the Moustakas one. If they still had those prospects that would now be on the cusp of making their debuts along with Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Jose Barrero, etc, this would be a very fun up-and-coming team to watch. Instead we have this awkward sort-of-competitive, sort-of-rebuilding team that continues to not know exactly what the Hell it’s trying to do.
In my opinion, they threw in the towel over the offseason when they dumped their entire bullpen to save money, after trading away several young pieces during the 2020 season for that bullpen help. That was when I jumped off the Reds bandwagon… it was a brief, frustrating stay.
Teams make mistakes on trades or have player that get injured or do not work out. Reds have made their share of really good trades too. They are trying. Just having prospects does not mean they will succeed at the major league level. Even with some valid points you may have I myself do no jump on or off bandwagons. I understand the Yankees are in the hunt for the playoffs/world series every year. They can just go out and buy most everything they need and they can always use another fan.
It wasn’t a mistake on a players’ value that bothers me. It was the idea that a team with 67 wins wanted to trade two pretty decent prospects for one year of a veteran. They should’ve been doing exactly the opposite.
Trammell for Bauer was an excellent trade for reds ! They are getting a conditional first round pick for him this draft. That’s what trammell cost them and they sold at peak value
You both make some decent points… It was more the Puig trade that really ended up sucking for them. I just would have liked to have seen them think longer term with their bid to contend, I guess.
And when I said “jumping on the bandwagon”, I just meant that I had been hyping up the Reds and was looking forward to them contending again, because in my view the more teams contending the better. I was rooting for them to succeed, which was why I was bummed when they took a step backward instead of forward in the offseason.