Heading into the 2021 season, Buster Posey was somewhat of a question mark for the Giants. The former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP had long since cemented his place in franchise lore, but Posey battled hip, hamstring and concussion issues from 2017-19 before opting out of the 2020 season. Posey had hip surgery in Aug. 2018, and his 2019 return wasn’t exactly peak form: .257/.320/.368 with seven home runs in 445 plate appearances.
Even the most bullish Posey fans would’ve been hard-pressed to predict the type of rebound that has since unfolded. Posey has not only returned to form but is arguably in the midst of the finest season of what could end up being a Hall of Fame career. And while his future with the club might not have been certain even four months ago — not with a new front office, a checkered recent injury history and one of the game’s top catching prospects looming in the minors — that no longer appears to be the case.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Giants fully intend to keep Posey beyond the 2021 season — be it via the $22MM club option they hold over him or, perhaps likelier, on a multi-year extension like the two-year deal just brokered with shortstop Brandon Crawford.
Not long ago, it looked likely that the $22MM option would be declined in favor of a $3MM buyout. Posey, however, has done enough this season to make even that weighty sum look like a bargain. The 34-year-old is currently hitting .325/.418/.540 with 15 home runs, 14 doubles, an excellent 13.5 percent walk rate and a 19.5 percent strikeout rate. He’s been 59 percent better than a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, and that comes during a season in which the average catcher has produced been 11 percent worse than league-average at the plate.
The Giants were able to get an in-season extension done with the aforementioned Crawford, but Posey suggested this week that he’s content to take a more patient approach. “For me, I think I’ll get to the end of the season and kind of assess at that point,” he told reporters, including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). “Talk to my wife and see where we are.”
Posey will play the 2022 season at 35, so the Giants surely would like to keep any new multi-year investments relatively short. Both the pricing of his club option and some recent contracts for Posey’s peers give some points of comparison. Posey will play next season at age 35 — the same age at which Yadier Molina’s three-year, $60MM contract with the Cardinals began in 2018. (He’s since re-signed on a one-year, $9MM deal after his production waned late in that three-year deal.) Meanwhile, J.T. Realmuto set a nominal average-annual-value record for catchers when he inked a five-year, $115.5MM contract with the Phillies this past offseason.
Any contractual talks with Posey will come with ramifications for top catching prospect Joey Bart, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft. The 24-year-old previously looked to be the Giants’ heir-apparent behind the plate, but Posey’s resurgence has thrown a wrench into those plans. Bart is enjoying a very strong season in Triple-A Sacramento, hitting .314/.379/.536 in 214 plate appearances. He made his big league debut, somewhat out of necessity, back in 2020 and scuffled with a .233/.288/.320 output in 111 plate appearances.
Bart already saw his name pop up on the rumor mill this summer, and a Posey extension would only further push teams to inquire about the possibility of prying him away from the Giants. That said, retaining Posey certainly doesn’t mean that Bart would become superfluous. Depth is always critical, particularly behind the plate, and while the Giants already have a very fine backup catcher in Curt Casali, he’s a free agent after the 2022 season.
It’s also quite possible that there will be a designated hitter implemented in the National League as soon as next year. Additionally, Posey has seen plenty of time at first base over the years, which could create additional opportunities for Bart. Incumbent first baseman Brandon Belt is a free agent at season’s end.
Depending on what happens with Belt and the universal DH, there could even be enough room for the Giants to carry three catchers on the roster in 2021 while still getting a reasonable number of at-bats for the whole trio. Those decisions will fall under the “good problem to have” umbrella whenever they more firmly present themselves. For the time being, the focus will be on finding terms that are agreeable both to Posey and to the team following the seven-time All-Star’s remarkable rebound.
maybe something along the lines of the Brandon Crawford extension? bit more?
Why not just exercise the option for next season? What’s the benefit of a multi-year extension at this point? Lets see how next year goes, and go from there.
Agree 100%. Catchers can age VERY quickly.
The article mentions a possible NL DH. This increases Posey’s market value/value a ton. If i were a Giants fan, i would want to lock this guy up now.
I know he’s doing well offensively now, but his true value is in defense.
Bone: This is Big Business! Not kids swapping baseball cards. If you disrespect a franchise player, you’ll tick off both him and his agent. That affects production, morale, the team’s relationship with that agent, your ability to sign future free agents, etc.
It’s quite complicated.
It wouldn’t affect production at all, if anything he’d be more motivated to have a huge season going into free agency
Baseball is a business. Pick up option and see how it goes. Teams will not be lining up to sign a soon to be 37 year old catcher. He’s not leaving the only franchise he’s ever known at 37.
Exactly pump the brakes and just pick up the option. How far did Molina go again?
For ticked off player, see Mad Bum after they tried to low ball him a few years back.
Buster doesn’t care about all that. He’s not a diva like Molina.
Posey has gotten his bag. People just assume he wants to play another 2-3 years when he has given no inclination of doing so. In fact, he clearly stated the other day he wants to regroup with his wife at the end of the year to discuss his future playing career. He plays a position that is taxing on the body and can suffer a concussion at any given time. He has 4 young children. He’s won 3x WS, MVP, All-Star, ROY. What else does he have left to prove? Let’s see how this season plays out. But I don’t see Buster playing for another 2-3 years. 2 max. But it’s up to him.
So now exercising a $22M option is disrespectful? Ahahahaha!
It’s like sleeping with the enemy.
@talking baseball. Bad example. Resigning MadBum would have been a bad idea.
@A.D. 37 Players are aware of the business side of the game. Simply exercising Posey’s option (for more money than probably most of the people in this comments section will see in their lives) isn’t going to ruin any relationship or stop any free agent from signing with the Giants.
Why not?………..here’s why not: any team in MLB would offer Posey a 2/40 tomorrow. Even when his bat had cooled off 2018-19, his defense was still elite. So, even with some likely bat-regression after this year, he’s got a ton to offer behind the dish and as a mentor to Bart when he comes up (or Bailey). I think Buster wants to be a “forever Giant” but I don’t think he’ll retire if he’s still able to play high quality ball, which I expect will be a bit beyond 2022. I think Z will offer him 2/40+
Let’s go Zaidi get it done. Posey will be a hall of famer.
Francys: He’s a borderline HOF’er.
He’s no slam dunk first ballot but he’s far from borderline. He’s a catcher and to have the production from both sides of the ball that he has makes him Hall worthy with the way catchers are handled in this time. His WAR is higher than Yadi and he’ll definitely be in based on defense and average hitting. Career numbers wise probably playing a couple more years helps but for the position he’s definitely up there and should be highly considered.
Posey sits at 44.2 WAR right now. Every eligible catcher with a career WAR of 48 or higher is in the Hall (Mauer not yet eligible). Two more solid seasons probably puts Posey at 50+ WAR and makes him a likely HOFer, even if not first ballot.
baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml
That’s what I was looking at too. I think even now he’s good without playing another game. That year off was really good for him physically and a probable DH helps over the next couple years if he decides to continue playing.
Go look at other catchers in the hall
He’s not a shoe in even if you and most of SF want him to be.
I’m not even a Giants fan. The game has changed and no more than the catching position with how loads over the course of a season has changed. You’re not going to see man catchers like Posey and Yadi catching 140-150 games a year. You can’t compare the players in the Hall to what the game is now. He has the accolades. If he didn’t have the MVP or titles then yes I think he would be a harder but he does and that along gives him a better shot. Both sides of the ball he’s been one of the best to do it over the past decade with hitting, calling games, and controlling the run game. What in your mind would make him more likely to get in? Posey had some injury seasons right in his prime. If he ends at 48-50 career WAR then don’t see how he doesn’t have a very very high chance.
“If he ends at 48-50 career WAR then don’t see how he doesn’t have a very very high chance.”
He already has 56 WAR in his career.
bWar/Jaws has him around 44 so that’s where I got that from
The discrepancy between his bWAR and fWAR is remarkable. It also doesn’t matter.
To date, Buster Posey ranks #8 all-time among catcher WAR. And minus Yogi Berra, he’s the only one in the top 10 to have 3 or more WS championships under his name.
He doesn’t need much more to his legacy to be in.
100% agree with this.
Of the 19 catchers in the hall, only 9 have a higher career WAR than Posey
Mauer, Molina, and Posey are all getting in
It’s the hall of fame
OF COURSE you should compare those already in to those trying to get in
Otherwise you run the risk of watering down what It means to be a HOF’er. No matter where you land on Posey, that should be an accepted fact
I’ve never understood the idea behind “First ballot Hall of Famer.” For me, you either are a Hall of Famer or you aren’t. Unless you do some major humanitarian work after you retire or something if I don’t think you deserve to get it once you’re eligible I’m not going to change my mind no matter how long it takes.
I think Buster Posey is a Hall of Famer evem if he retires after this year.
The potential, if not likely, introduction of the DH, and maybe Bekt’s departure creates a world where both Posey and Bart can coexist on the MLB roster.
Bart.
Belt.
I’ll stop now.
Bort
Balk
Yes, I can see a situation where Bart plays primarily 1b and catches once a series. Eliminates the need for a backup catcher, though I like Casali and wouldn’t mind him back.
There is also the Potential to replace an aging player with a younger, cheaper player who may be just as good. That allows assets to be applied to areas of need. Pick up the option year, and thank him for his time with the franchise.
You’re all naively and ignorantly forgetting how powerful agents are, and how important good relationships with agents is. Again, these aren’t kids with trading cards. It’s multifaceted.
you’re forgetting that the player has the power and dictates his fate, not the agent. You give agents way too much power. They do what the player tells them to do. If Buster says pump the breaks, they do what he says. They service him. Bryant said it best yesterday regarding Boras, “I Run The Show.”
kcus: I’m not “forgetting” anything. You see the world like a child.
Pretty sure Bryant was just joking considering he was referring to one of the most powerful agents to ever do it, but I thoroughly agree nonetheless.
Perhaps the Giants spent all of their extensions-money payola’ing everyone involved in the probably-fake Bauer situation.
You call someone a child then come up with some baseless claim the Giants were involved with this Trevor Bauer scandal? Where’s the proof because you’re the one looking like a child here.
If there was payola in the “probably fake” Bauer situation, your investigative time would be better spent looking at the Padres as the payors….
Gmen: You’re a complete mess. I didn’t call anyone a child, and I didn’t make a “claim”. I offered a hypothetical. P.S. Oh, I see, unless *I* personally, somehow, magically have proof, then my hypothetical is impossible, and can’t be mentioned. Thank you Thought-Police Officer.
Empire: There’s probably a pretty good chance that the whole thing’s fake, and, yes, you can’t rule out the Padres.
@ adhd 37
Just because you think it, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t put in some thought before posting it. Some thoughts don’t show you in a positive light.
AD,
Generally, when you post an outlandish thought like the Giants were somehow involved in the Trevor Bauer situation (or that the situation is “fake”) you should offer some evidence.
You’re more than welcome to post it, but then again, the rest of the group is allowed to both call you out and mock you for making such a wild, unsubstantiated idea.
thestatbook: I don’t need evidence to propose a plausible theory. And because some nobody claims that it’s “outlandish” doesn’t magically make it so. And one doesn’t make ideas. You too are a complete mess.
I’ve been an NL fan my entire life and therefore am not a fan of the DH. That being said if it’s inevitable within the next few years then it coming next year would really help the Giants. Just have Bart and Posey split DH and catching (either 50-50 or Bart 2/3 Posey 1/3).
It’s amazing that everyone on the Giants is essentially having a career year. Even Posey, who has quite an impressive career, is having his best year. It also makes contract extensions difficult. You have to be careful with expectations. Everything is clicking this year, but can that be expected to continue next year?
Anyway…what a team. Pleasure to watch them play.
VonPurple: His best year?? Not even in his top 5.
That’s just not true. You have to take into account he’s not playing every day anymore. So some totals are obviously down, but even with that, his numbers are staggering. He’s only hitten above .320 one other year. He’s doing it again. You can argue if this is indeed his best season, but it’s certainly his top 5. So in his case let’s call it a career resurgence.
That’s only because he is playing like 2 out of every 3 games. If he was playing a full slate he would be having a similar year to his MVP season.
Correct, Ted. When you get that much rest, that must be a contextual factor in rank – ordering the seasons. Quality is the most important thing, but it’s mostly useless in the absence of quantity.
So you’re arguing that Posey would guaranteed be the same player over an extra 30% PA even if if he didn’t have excess rest?
How did 2017-2019 go for Buster?
@Von, I agree with everything you said. I think the Giants only extend Crawford and Posey, and they let Cueto and Belt walk. We have many other needs, mostly rotation and soon (after Longo’s contract expires after ‘22) a premier 3rd basemen. But in some ways, this is why these short, relatively low $ contract extensions are perfect, as they don’t tie the payroll down and offer a ton of flexibility in the FA market this off-season
VonPurpleHayes:
It’s a fallacy that “…everyone on the Giants is essentially having a career year.” Only Posey, Ruf, and Crawford are guys who’ve played close to a full season, that are having anything close to career years. Longoria has played significantly less than half the season. Belt has missed significant time as well.
And Posey is still short of his MVP season, where he had a 177 OPS+ to the 157 OPS+ this season. Crawford is the only guy legitimately having a career year.
Guys that have been playing more like a full season, like Yaz, Dickerson, Slater, Solano, and Flores, are not having “career years”. Aaron Sanchez, and Mike Tauchman hardly had a career years in their time with the team
Take Flores, he’s played more games than any other Giant, 107. He has a 106 OPS+. That’s only the 5th highest in his career. Slater has played the 2nd most games. He has an 88 OPS+, only 2018 was worse in his 5 year career.
Look for another reason why the Giants are good this year, other than being luck with everyone career years. That’s not why they still have the best record in baseball.
@tad2b13 I never once used the word luck. The Giants are not lucky, they have been consistently good all season
My point is, can you expect this level of performance out of these guys next year?
Well, you never used the word luck, per se, but saying everyone is essentially having a career year definitely implies they are being lucky. Everyone having a career year is way beyond the norm, and would require luck, if it were true.
And my point was, with guys like the ones I mentioned, not having career years, and in some cases having subpar seasons, then yes, as a team, I think you can expect something close to their level of production in the future.
I wouldn’t expect Crawford to continue at this level, but I expect Posey, if he remains healthy, to maintain something close, at least for another year. But I also expect the guys I mentioned, like Slater, to have better seasons going forward.
Ahh I see. I didn’t mean to imply the Giants are lucky. I meant to imply that guys like Posey, Ruf, Crawford even Gausman to some extent, may not be this fantastic next year. So one should be careful in extension talks. As you mentioned there are a few guys like Slater who have room to improve. I just think this team is currently a well-oiled machine, with everyone contributing at almost peak level. It’s honestly amazing to watch from the outside (as a non-Giants fan). This group just meshes so well, and Kapler has clearly matured over the last few seasons. He’s said so himself.
Thanks for the reply. I like your posts, and think they’re unbiased, so I was a little taken aback, since I see a lot of biased posts claiming the Giants are just a fluke. In first place only because they’re just lucky.
I see their success as FZ building a roster of solid, if unspectacular, guys with a lot of depth. It seems like it’s close to solid ballplayers top to bottom. And I like the way Kapler gives everyone regular rest, playing the whole roster, keeping everyone in the game, and only leaning on guys when an injury requires it.
Agreed. FZ deserves a lot of credit for this roster construction. At the beginning of the season I thought the Giants would be really good, but I admit I didn’t expect them to be the best team in the league. I’m rooting for them to take the division.
So if someone gets hurt, you can’t look at their on the field production and compare other seasons they played? The numbers just don’t count? Do the giants give those wins back? Oh no?
Would love to see Posey remain a Giant for life, he deserves that. Giants have quite a few FA at the end of the year and the cheaper contacts they are on will be more expensive next year, locking up Posey and Belt would be ideal for long time fans.
Meh Belt can leave, I’m a life long fan and I’d rather have JT snow or Will Clark than Belt too young to have watched McCovey, but I gotta assume he was more exciting than Belt. It’s just my opinion but Belt annoys me, too many walks at selfish times when we needed the big hit and he watched strike 3 cross the plate in the ninth then whined like a little girl.
There was an article on MLB yesterday making the MVP case for the power-surging Willy Adames.
Can you imagine what Belt’s numbers would look like if he played in Milwaukee?
In addition he would finally win the Gold Glove he’s deserved for years.
johnnieleeboo: That’s what standardized / adjusted / neutralized stats are for. (Imagining Belt’s numbers is Milwaukee).
That’s not true. Ballpark factors are pretty useless. Even the folks who develop those factors acknowledge how incredibly difficult it is to neutralize ballparks.
Difficult doesn’t mean inaccurate or useless.
Of course it doesn’t. But it also means that using ballpark-neutral figures aren’t always the most accurate figures, either.
I can see Milwaukee making a bid for Belt next year. Highly doubt he’s coming back to SF next year.
Belt has never really been appreciated in SF. And now SF has a number of other options and Posey to consider first, anyhow. Belt deserves a change of scenery. He may never reach the lofty heights people expected him to, but he’s always been a pretty darn good player.
why would he win a gold glove in Milwaukee instead of in SF? they are in the same league and he would play the same position. the thing that would win him the gold glove is people like freeman being out of the league not him being on another team in the same league.
If you could win an MVP on half a season of stats Willy might have a case. But it’s MVP for 2021, not Half of 2021.
Adames surge is less about playing in Milwaukee and more about not playing in Tampa Bay. Adames has already said he couldn’t see the ball well at the Trop and his career home/away splits confirm that.
No one can say if Belt played in Milwaukee that he would turn in to Freddie Freeman at the plate. I wouldn’t necessarily bank on Milwaukee pursuing Belt over the winter. Tellez is under team control and the Brewers may look to make upgrades at 3B and in the Outfield
Posey has a higher ops than his mvp season right now. He was injured for a bit but if he goes on a tear down the stretch he could easily be in the mvp conversation.
RD: Gotta look at AdjOPS+, not OPS.
Posey having an awesome season, but I think not playing every day is going to quash his chances at MVP. Besides, the baseball press have already crowned Tatis and nobody else will really get fair consideration.
It seems to me that Bart’s future with the Giants is a 1B. Has he played any 1B in the minors?
Zaidi pointed out last year he wanted Bart to learn other positions to increase his versatility but have yet to see him learn 1b. Depending on Posey, is Buster is back next year then we’ll see Bart taking reps at 1b. If Buster isn’t back/retires then Bart will be the catcher. Unless he’s traded in a package for a controllable pitcher. But Bailey is a ways away, hasn’t looked good offensively (screams backup catcher to me) and even though internet experts are so certain Bart will be traded, I would wager he is not. 1b is his calling IMO.
It would really be bad for the Giants NOT to extend Posey. Buster is the face of that franchise and seeing him in another uni would be wrong. AND I’M A DODGER FAN. Get this done Z, dont eff up.
My beef with BP is his lack of RBI”s! For all his hitting average he does not produce as His SUPERSTAR pay would indicate. Take away his HR’s and he has very few RBI’s batting 3rd. Make him only a star and not worth much more then 10 to 12 million!
Not a Giants fan, but is there any doubt Posey is a HOFer?
There definitely was a little doubt before this season, as it appeared that Posey’s bat had declined, even if his numbers at the plate were still better than average. But I’ve got to think that his case is pretty solid with this year’s performance. If he can manage another 1 or 2 seasons with good (and not even great) production, it’s a done deal.
No doubt in my mind. People that say no will want to compare his hitting to other great HoF hitters, but being a catcher changes the whole equation.. Posey has a 129 OPS+ in his 12 year career. Pudge Rodriquez had a 106 OPS+ for his career. Cherry-picking 12 best consecutive seasons, he had a 119 OPS+ over than span.
Gary Carter had a 115 OPS+ for his career, and a 124 OPS+ over his first 13 seasons. An 87 OPS+ over his final 7.
Carleton Fisk had a career 117 OPS+, with a 124 OPS+ in his first 13 seasons, his best stretch.
Johnny Bench had a 126 OPS+ for his career. Cherry-picking his 12 best seasons, he had a 132 OPS+ over that span. Better than Posey’s 129, but not that much.
Only Mike Piazza has a significantly better OPS+, 143 for his career. Posey also compares well to catchers from earlier eras like Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella.
You think a guy should be a lock HOF’er if 1/3 of their career, they sucked or didn’t play?
He gets in from the extra stuff eventually, but he really shouldn’t be a lock. All HOF’er have a fantastic 7 year peak. but they also usually have about 15-20 highly productive seasons. Buster isn’t there
Wow, you surprise me, as I thought you were more objective than that. Did you even look at Posey’s numbers?
What 1/3 of Posey’s career sucked? In one season, when he was still rehabbing from hip surgery, he had an 83 OPS+, his only sub-100 OPS+ of his career. Not counting that 7 game, Sept, call-up in 2009, his worse season over the next 10 seasons was the 2018 season when he tried to play through the hip injury and posted a 108 OPS+. That’s sucking? Pudge had a 106 OPS+ for his career.
He missed most of 2011, after 45 games, with a horrific injury, and then opted out of a 60 games season. And this is not playing? What value is there in Carter’s 7 more seasons when he posted an 87 OPS+, Or Pudge’s 85 OPS+ over his last 7 seasons?
Pudge was a tad better defensively than Posey. Its not just offence.
Pudge was one of the best defensive catchers EVER
It’s not a tad better. It’s miles. Posey isn’t even a full time catcher for the back half of his career!
Clearly you guys can’t get past “he’s my favorite player”
Posey is a C/1B trying to get in on the power of his bat, and you guys just want to brush away 30% of his career cause he was hurt. The reason it’s so hard for catchers to get in IS the longevity part because of the position
He’s not my favorite player, but I recognize his ability McCourt, your Dodger blue is showing.
Posey is better than Pudge defensively. Fangraphs instituted DRS in 2002. In Pudge’s last 10 season, since 2002, he had 32 DRS. For his career Posey has 117. Granted, Pudge probably slowed down later in his career, but those numbers aren’t close enough to account for that
Posey is one of the most highly regarded defensive catchers in baseball. I saw Joe Girardi, when he was still on MLB TV, raving about Posey as a catcher.
He’s not a C/1B. That’s just a cheap smear. He played a lot of 1B under Bochy, only because Bochy wanted his bat in the game when he needed a day off from catching. He’s played 1,052 games at catcher, and 229 at 1B. Biased much?
As to him not being a full-time catcher, Posey’s playing time is the victim of how almost every team is treating the position. There’s basically one catcher playing every day, and that’s Sal Perez. Only 3 catchers in all of baseball have played in 100 games. Not counting his Sept. call-up season Posey has played 9,042 1/3 innings at catcher. That averages to over 818 inning per season.
You’re nit-picking. You appear to have some Dodger axe to grind regarding Posey. I wouldn’t do it, but what would you think if I nit-picked Kershaw’s credentials, based on his missing time due to his back issues, and his less than spectacular PS record? I mean 13 and 12 with a 4.19 ERA is hardly slam-dunk HoF.
“ He’s not a C/1B. That’s just a cheap smear. He played a lot of 1B under Bochy, only because Bochy wanted his bat in the game when he needed a day off from catching. He’s played 1,052 games at catcher, and 229 at 1B. Biased much?”
That’s 20% of his career at bats are taken at a different position. And I’m biased saying he not a pure catcher? Hahahaha okay
You then try to claim one season for kershaw, in which he still had the 6th best FIP in the NL when he was shut down, somehow negates a career where he has one of the best ERAs and run prevention numbers ever? And he’s only 32 with a total of *ONE* season in his career with an ERA over 3.00… at 3.03
Posey is fantastic player. He’s in my hall of very good. If he puts 2021 up for another 3 years, sure that completely pushes him over. His peak was impeccable. I have never said a negative word about Posey. Saying he’s not a hall of famer isn’t hating the guy. It’s taking a step back and looking at the numbers.
He has 12 total seasons, and 3 he was somewhere from Ok to just bad and he sat out another year. Then add that 20% of his career at bats were elsewhere. But you want to pretend he’s a pure catcher for his whole career? And call me names while you make such a reach?
Once again. The state of the position should not make the bar to get into the hall of fame decline. That’s pissing on the very meaning of being a hall of famer
I’m the biased one?
This is even funnier
“ In Pudge’s last 10 season, since 2002, he had 32 DRS. For his career Posey has 117. Granted, Pudge probably slowed down later in his career, but those numbers aren’t close enough to account for that”
You’re taking age 30-39 for pudge and comparing it to Posey’s age 22-34 for defense? And you think that’s a legitimate comparison? COME ON!
Do you think Posey is catching 111 games at age 38? What an idiotic number grab that has nothing to bear on this conversation
Pudge, for all your complaining, has a WAR 24 wins higher than Posey. Just stop
Wow, Your reading is extremely poor.
I never tried to “claim one season for Kershaw, in which he still had the 6th best FIP in the NL when he was shut down, somehow negates a career…”
I compared your criticism of Posey to me doing that, which I said, and I quote “I wouldn’t do it”. Jeez. what’s wrong with you?
The point about Posey and 1B is that normally, catchers get at least one day off a week. While other catchers are resting in the dugout, Posey was playing 1B. Somehow that a big negative for you.
Plus, you accuse me of bias comparing their DRS, and then you compare career WAR. WAR is a cumulative stat. Anyone with a long career is going to be able to compile a bigger number than a guy still playing.
According to Fangraphs, Pudge had a WAR of 53.2 in his first 12 full seasons. Posey has a 56.5 WAR for his 12 year career so far. That’s how you compare WAR in an unbiased way.
“All HOF’er have a fantastic 7 year peak. but they also usually have about 15-20 highly productive seasons. Buster isn’t there”
I’m guessing you’re pulling this out of your ass, and not really looking at stats.
Pudge only had 10 seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or higher. The top being a 156 with a bottom of 100.
Carter had 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or higher. Tossing out the 174 in the small sample 9 games in his first year, the top being a 146 with a bottom of 104.
Counting this season Posey has had 11 seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or higher. The top being a 171 with a bottom of 108.
Posey is already better than Pudge. And do you really think that Carter’s 115 and 104 OPS+ in the last 2 of those 13 years is enough of a difference between getting in the HoF or not?
“ I’m guessing you’re pulling this out of your ass, and not really looking at stats.”
Just because you don’t know something, doesn’t mean I’m pulling it out of my ass. The average length of a hall of farmer’s career is 18 years. Go ahead, what’s a narrow range where 18 Lands right in the middle? Say it together. 15-20. Yay!
Don’t accuse me of making something up because you’re too lazy to verify it
There are a total of 16 catchers in the HOF. Over more than 100 years of baseball. It’s tied for the hardest position to be enshrined, along with 3B
Just because you like a guy and the position is weak in the game today doesn’t change precedence
ToTad, Posey is trying to get in on the strength of his offense. Pudge got in becuase he was one of the best defensive catchers ever. Posey is not. So 17-19 being average to subpar years with the bat and sitting out 20, he doesn’t have the longevity of most other HOF’er. His career is 12 seasons and he wasn’t very good in 3 and sat out a 4th
I expect he’ll be enshrined eventually. But I personally don’t think his numbers are there if he retires tomorrow. The hall doesn’t care that you were playing hurt so it’s justified you had a bad year. You’re arguing with emotion
It’s generally regarded that a minimum of 10 years is what a player needs to be considered. Posey is past that, even with time lost to injury.
The part you pulled out of your ass is not length of HoF players career, but the BS about 7 elite seasons and 15 – 20 highly productive ones. I didn’t say any thing about length of career. Trying to shift the argument?
I’ve looked at all the recent catcher inductions, and none of them fit your profile of 7/15-20.. As I demonstrated with actual stats, unlike your perceptions, the profile is 10 highly productive seasons with an occasional MVP type season, with another 9 -11, below average seasons to pad the counting stats. Right now Posey fits the profile, but without the additional 9-11 so-so ones.
You’ve posted very few stats other than things like, “16 catchers in the HOF….It’s tied for the hardest position to be enshrined”. And what’s that got to do with any individual players credentials? Zero.
The question should be how does Posey rank those HoF catchers. And he stacks up well. That is unless you’re nit-picking about sitting out a 60 game season.
And again, you’re dead wrong about his only value being offensively. Very, very wrong. Where are you getting this information that Posey is not a good defender? How is 117 DRS not good?
I’m not arguing with emotion, I’m looking at stats. I know the Hall doesn’t care whether a guy had a bad year due to injury. But do you seriously think that none of the HoF catchers had a bad year or two, whether it was from injury or whatever?
For instance, Carter in his second full season, played in only 91 games and had a 66 OPS+. In his age 35 season he played in only 50 games with an OPS+ of 51. Fisk played only 91 games in 1979 with a 96 OPS+.
“ I’ve looked at all the recent catcher inductions, and none of them fit your profile of 7/15-20.. As I demonstrated with actual stats, unlike your perceptions, the profile is 10 highly productive seasons with an occasional MVP type season, with another 9 -11, below average seasons to pad the counting stats. Right now Posey fits the profile, but without the additional 9-11 so-so ones.”
In the span of 3 sentences, you just covered why Posey is not a hall of famer. You said it! He doesn’t have the entire resume
cmon man. 2 years for Carter or 1 for Fisk isn’t 30% of their career. I’m not just stuck on 2020. It’s 2017-2020
You’re pathetic. Basically you’re saying that 9-11 years of less that league average hitting, is what Posey would need to get into the HoF.
And 30% is a gross exaggeration.
Just look at overall numbers. Stop trying to parse out negatives from individual seasons. The overall numbers say Posey will be in the Hall of Fame.
Derek Jeter in 20 seasons: 73.0 WAR (3.65/season)
Buster Posey in 12 seasons: 56.6 WAR (4.72/season)
One of those guys created a national tragedy because he wasn’t a unanimous 1st ballot guy, the other guy, according to some random internet guy, “isn’t there yet.”
“BeforeMcCourt” is the Frank McCourt of making internet takes.
Hahahah the stat book, you needed your own comment for your idiocy
First, you’re arguing that two players with , as you claim, a 17 war difference, are equals. That would be 5 average years of Jeter removed, no problem!
THEN anyone with a brain realizes that you inflated Posey’s numbers. He has 44 WAR. Not 54. That is an average of 3.6 wins/year for 12 years. So he’s right in line with Jeter with 60% the career length
Do better if you’re coming at me
56.6 fWAR vs. Jeter’s 73.0 fWAR.
I’m really sorry that you’re too stupid to understand that other WAR metrics exist. I truly am.
Not looking at Fangraphs obviously. They have Posey with a WAR of 56.6.
This entire post has used RWAR. The website uses only r war. You clearly knew my post was rwar. You didn’t quote the actual name, fWAR. And There’s a MASSIVE discrepancy in the two sites
It’s not my job to make your post make sense. Present your argument more clearly.
The best part. Even with your snark, my post is still accurate
And it’s not my job to make sure you understand that there’s more than one WAR metric out there.
When you made the attempt at correcting my number, “THEN anyone with a brain realizes that you inflated Posey’s numbers. He has 44 WAR. Not 54.” (Which is interesting, because the number I gave was 56, not 54, but I digress), you also never clarified that you were using rWAR.
So it’s our job to know you were using rWAR (despite you never clarifying), but not your job to understand I was using fWAR? You need that spelled out for you?
I mean, if you want to be treated at a much lower intellectual standard, I can certainly do that. It’s nice that you’re recognizing your own limits, I guess.
Also, for kicks and giggles, let’s just limit this to rWAR.
Derek Jeter- 71.3 rWAR, 20 seasons. 3.57 WAR/season.
Buster Posey- 44.2 rWAR, 12 seasons. 3.68 WAR/season
So even if we went with rWAR, unless you’re suggesting that Derek Jeter isn’t worthy of the Hall of Fame, Buster Posey is still just as valuable, year-over-year, as Jeter ever was.
It’s a reasonable question to ask, as long as we’re not losing our minds and suggesting Brandon Crawford is also a HoFer.
Crawford’s hair gets in, not sure if the rest of him makes it though.
Picking up Posey’s 19 mil net option is the ultimate no brainer.
Casali will not be a free agent. He is Arb eligible in 2022.
After a 7 for 70 start with no home runs Casali is 27 for his last 79 (.342) with 5 home runs with elite defense. His wRC+ is 99 now, which is 10% above average for a catcher and that’s including his 7 for 70 start. You don’t let him get away as a back up.
I think trading Bart now is a foregone conclusion. The Giants have 3 other prospects at catcher in the minors including Bailey, Genoves and the unknown Brett Auerbach.
Agreed that resigning Casali is a good move with how well he has played lately.
It’s still possible that Bart will be the future 1B or will share catching/1B duties with Posey over the next couple of years.
Pat Bailey is still at the A-ball level, and has had a pretty disappointing year, batting just above the Mendoza line. He’s 22, and it could still be another three years before he reaches the bigs if indeed he does.
It just depends what kind of return the Giants can get for Bart. One thing for sure, Bart will not play in the minors next year. And Posey can probably catch for the next 3 years.
I think Brett Auerbach may surpass Bailey and Genoves next year. He was an undrafted free agent out of the University of Alabama last year (because the draft only went 5 rounds)
I think 3 years may be 1 too many, especially if he remains a catcher, which I think he will, but in a reduced role. Posey has expressed his desire to be a catcher. I’m not sure he wants to extend his career to play 1B, let alone be a DH.
He’s also expressed concern about concussions, and given his personal life with 4 young kids, I see him playing 2 more years, mentoring Bart, and eventually moving into a back up role.
I haven’t seen Posey address this issue, but if he’s anything like Crawford, who wants to retire while he’s still at the top of his game. then 2 more years makes sense for him as well.
Bart’s number are fine for a 1B, but exceptional at C. Why would you move him to a different position? Is his defense horrendous? If not, move Posey so his bat holds up and he is more rested. Bart’s value as a 1B will be middle of the pack. An ave 1B with an ave Bat is Chris Cron, who has become a journeyman. The same bat at C is a Fisk, Munson, or Carter.
Posey can Catch, play some First Base and eventually transition to DH when the NL inevitably adopts the DH. There are no real ramifications for Bart other than maybe getting more time to develop. Posey is still productive and should absolutely be able to end his career with the Giants
Pretty confidant Buster will make the right call on “when”. Just can’t see him committing to being an anchor. If it was me, I’d be giving him close to whatever he wants. Giants legend.