J.D. Martinez’s top priority is on getting the Red Sox into the playoffs, though once this season’s business is complete, Martinez will have to decide whether or not to return to the Sox for 2022. The slugger tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he is “right in the middle” about whether he will opt out of the final season (and $19.375MM) on his contract, or if he’ll come back for a fifth year in Boston.
Martinez’s original five-year/$110MM pact from the 2017-18 offseason was somewhat unusually structured, giving both Martinez and the team multiple opportunities to opt out of the deal, with Boston’s concern being Martinez’s history of foot injuries. As it turned out, Martinez stayed relatively healthy, and delivered huge numbers in 2018-19 before tailing off badly in 2020. However, Martinez spoke at length about how the COVID-altered circumstances of the 2020 season impacted his ability to prepare and adjust for games, and his bat has largely bounced back in the somewhat more normalized environment of the 2021 campaign.
It’s a sign of how well Martinez has performed during his career that his .285/.349/.516 slash line and 29 homers over 612 plate appearances this season actually represents a step down from his 2014-19 prime, though Martinez is certainly still a dangerous bat. A below-average walk rate is the only real sign of decline for the 34-year-old, who is still making plenty of hard contact and hitting for plenty of power.
Martinez has already passed on opting out of his contract following each of the last two seasons. While last year’s decision was hardly a surprise given his subpar numbers, Martinez also expressed concern over how the free agent market would look for himself and for players as a whole in the wake of the pandemic season. Given how vocal Martinez was about his displeasure with his own past free agent experience, he might be more inclined to take the security of his 2022 salary and avoid the possibility of another unusual offseason, considering the rumblings of labor struggles between owners and players.
That said, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement could also represent an argument for Martinez to opt out. It has been widely assumed that the next CBA will extend the designated hitter to the National League, thus opening Martinez’s market up to 15 other teams. While Martinez isn’t a DH-only player, an NL team would surely prefer to have the DH available if signing Martinez to a multi-year contract. Of course, Martinez will have to make his opt-out call within five days of the end of the World Series — well before we’ll know if the universal DH will be a reality.
Looking at just the American League, teams like the Mariners, Tigers (Martinez’s former team), Indians, and perhaps even the White Sox, Blue Jays, or Royals could all make room for the veteran slugger in their 2022 lineups. A return to Boston also couldn’t be ruled out beyond just declining the opt-out clause, as Martinez and the Red Sox could potentially work out an extension or another year or two to keep Martinez from opting out.
No way he doesn’t opt out and get another couple guaranteed years, even if he re-signs in Boston.
If he opts out I don’t see Boston looking to re-sign him to a longer deal. At 34 he’s definitely entering the decline of his career. The Sox would be more likely to look to sign Schwarber to a 4-5 year deal than look to lock in multiple years of JDM right now.
Yeah is it really worth it to opt out to get 2 more more next season with a team option for another?
Can he play 1b and be average defensively? If so I think it makes it much more likely for 2-3 year deal. Teams aren’t paying DH guys anymore. You need the dh spot to rest guys. Kills your roster flexibility.
The writers here in the chats keep insisting JD will definitely opt out.
I will continue disagreeing, and here’s why:
JD is having his worst season (not counting the 2020 joke of a season) since 2013, that is EIGHT YEARS AGO. Combined with his horrendous 2020 season and his ongoing back issues, his value right now is much lower than it’s been in nearly a decade.
Why on Earth would he sign a multi-year contract or risk losing a $19.3M salary for next year when his value is currently so low?
JD is a smart guy, I think he realizes the smart thing to do is play out the contract and try for a Semien-type rebound season.
It’s not like JD has 2 or 3 more years left on the contract if he chooses not to opt-out, he’s got only one year left. He’d be much better off if next season he puts up pre-2020 numbers and can stay healthy all season and THEN becomes a free agent next winter.
With that said, heck yeah I’d rather have Schwarber instead of JD for the next 3-5 years.
Completely agree, he’s not opting out.
There isn’t a team that will pay Martinez more than 19M a year or give him 3+ years.
The NL getting DHs doesn’t make a difference. If they have it next season, then they’ll also have it the season after that. Martinez has an opportunity to make 19M, play postseason baseball, and boost his value if he stays in Boston for another year.
There’s not many over-30 players (if any) that would turn that down
I agree they will sign Schwarber if JD opt out
Agree! Comments here assume GMs will be throwing money at JD. Even David Ortiz had to whine and complain to get competitive money at each contract renewal. If some GM offered JD 3 year $33 million it means year two and three are only $13.7 million over what he already has or about $7 million per year. I said in 2018 JD would stay the whole five years and he will, because the 5 year $110 million was very generous at the time for a DH ONLY player (he is a very, very bad outfielder).
I only muted KD16 and have 15 muted comments, so he must be spreading the bs thick on this thread. Lol
Ken I agree and I’d take a bit further in saying that Boston would secretly welcome him opting out. I think you’re spot on with your take on Schwarber. He’s exactly what the Red Sox need a big thumper in the middle. Dalbec definitely looks like he’ll settle in at first/DH and I think he and Schwarber would make a nice 4 and 5 duo. I definitely see Dalbec sticking in this lineup his bat has come alive in the second half. I believe he could be an .850 OPS guy.
Some of the glow is coming off Schwarber. Furthermore, he is going to want a long-term contract, esp. having been burned by a DFA in CHI. I don’t see Bloom going for that. I think Bloom would also love for JD to opt out–if he doesn’t, then I can see the Sox paying his last year down and trading him. That would open the DH, and the Sox can use it for the rotation of players who need rest w/o having to sit them out, plus they can keep valuable bench bats (like Shaw, maybe) engaged. Look at how inflexible this lineup has become with Schwarber and JD in it–if the DH can be opened, then Bloom can look for better gloves at 1B and 3B to supplement the roster.
Yup, we could likely buy a prospect. I don’t think anyone is opening that vault for JD next year. But on a one-year obligation, with us picking $8M, I’d bet we’d get a decent prospect in return.
While it wouldn’t be as good as JD opting out, it would still be another $11M of spending freed up.
What do you mean by the glow coming off Schwarber? He’s got a .934 OPS with Boston despite Cora repeatedly cooling him off by benching him. Cora playing him at 1B isn’t helping either. By playing Schwarber every day and keeping him in his comfort zone of LF/DH, his production can be maximized.
Players don’t need to be rotated through the DH spot for rest, they get enough rest with the excessive number of days off Cora gives them every season.
From my perspective, the sox should keep him.
He’s no David Ortiz or whatever. But: I am never excited to see him at the plate. He seems to have a real positive effect on their entire lineup. More than any other hitter on the sox.
Interesting move by Cora last weekend not starting Sale. Hiding him for the play-in game?
Wasn’t his turn in the rotation, he had just pitched on Wednesday against the Mets. You think he was gonna start Sunday on 3 days rest?
My bad, @rippa.
I thought his last start was earlier in the week.
Fever Pitch Guy
What do you mean by the glow coming off Schwarber?
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He was an .816 OPS hitter (118+) before this year. His BABIP is higher this year and his HR/FB is higher, but I don’t think he’s magically become a .934 hitter. It seldom works like that. And he has an .815 over his last 23 games.
Interesting move by Cora last weekend not starting Sale.
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They could’ve chosen to delay one of his starts, to line up with the NYY, but that would’ve cost them a start. He’s lined to start the final game of the year. Anything else would’ve cost them one of his starts.
@Mystery Team if Boston “would secretly welcome him opting out” you can completely forget about him opting out.
Joe you still don’t think that was the wrong decision?
As another JB would say, “Come on, man!!”
FACT: If Sale had started the first game of the NYY series, Sox would likely be tied with NYY right now.
FACT: If Sale had started the first game of the NYY series, he wouldn’t be needed this weekend in DC.
FACT: If Sale pitches Sunday, which is highly likely now, he wouldn’t be available for a Play-In Game or the Wild Card Game.
FACT: If Sale pitches Sunday and a Play-In Game is needed, then Eovaldi wouldn’t be available for the Wild Card Game.
It was a horrible decision by Cora to not start Sale against the NYY, one of many horrible decisions..
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe you still don’t think that was the wrong decision?
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Of course. We didn’t lose because Pivetta pitched badly in Sale’s place. We lost because:
1-Eovaldi was awful
2-The BP surrendered 4 ERs in 3.1 IPs on Saturday,
3-The BP gave up 4 ERs in 4 IPs on Sunday.
4-We scored 8 runs in 3 games.
When your bullpen surrenders more runs than you score, you’re in trouble. The NYY simply outplayed, and outplayed us badly.
Actually Joe, it was Eovaldi who pitched in Sale’s place. Sale should have pitched last Friday instead of two days earlier against the Mets.
Red Sox were down 7-3 after 6 innings last Friday. You don’t think Sale would have held the Yanks to 3 runs or less over at least 6 innings?
Anyhoo …. I am really liking tonight’s lineup. Verdugo and Iglesias are both sitting, with JD and KS starting as they should. I’m sure Dugie and maybe Jose will get chances to pinch hit and maybe play the field later on.
Also glad Renfroe got moved way down, crazy how Cora keeps bouncing Schwarber around between #2 and #6.
Schwarber-Renfroe-JDM might be a worse defensive outfield than when my friends and I use to play. I know he’s playing for offense, but I don’t like the defensive alignment at all.
Joe I know you’re not a fan of Cora, but he made the right decisions with today’s lineup. It’s a National League park, which means there is no DH.
So who would you rather bench?
Schwarber who has a .963 OPS over his last 15 games and is very familiar with Nats Park?
JD who has a .914 OPS over his last 15 games and has a couple hits and a run tonight?
Hunter who has a .987 OPS over his last 7 games and .943 OPS over his last 30 games and hit a 3-run dinger tonight?
I know you’re a big fan of Verdugo, but he’s been struggling badly with just a .440 OPS over his last 7 games
We really need to support Cora on this, he’s the manager and he knows best.
I said a few games ago that Verdugo has to take a seat behind Schwarber. Tonight was a night for packing the lineup with righties, and it worked.
Huge win tonight! When Vazquez failed to hold onto strike 3 in the 9th we started worrying, but that atom ball Dalbec caught was the biggest play of the game. This was the one I thought they’d lose, the next couple games I feel good about. Guessing Houck starts tomorrow and unfortunately Sale will probably be needed Sunday.
Good news is ERod looked impressive tonight.
ERod’s been pretty good since the end of June, with a 3.69 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, and a 91/28 K/W in 78 IPs.
They have Houck listed, but he pitched 2 innings on the 28th, so I don’t expect more than 4 innings out of him. I’m hoping that Mr. Whitlock looks good enough to come off of the IL.
Yeah Joe I always felt ERod was gonna struggle early on after not pitching for nearly two years because of Covid. Remember he was supposed to start Opening Day but was scratched due to DAS. I think it was merely a matter of getting his stamina back.
Sorry but I have to laugh at Cora’s babying of his pitchers. When a perfectly healthy 25-year-old pitcher throws just 41 pitches 4 days earlier, he should have no problem going 5-6 innings if he can keep his pitch count under 90. Especially with the bullpen looking so bad of late. I will never accept this 15-pitcher style of managing.
You did have a very valid point a while back about hitters having an advantage the third time they face a starting pitcher, but I would always stick with a starting pitcher performing well instead of bringing in relievers because you never know what those relievers will have that game. Especially that first pitch relievers throw, when they are trying to get settled in. Barnes giving up a game-winning homerun to Springer on his very first pitch of the game immediately comes to mind as an example.
IRT ‘babying’ the pitchers, I think a lot of this was deliberate because they knew no one had a full season last year.
IRT the 2nd time thru the lineup concept, I’d prefer to think of it as a guideline more than a rule. I think Snell’s game in the WS is a perfect example. His splits 3x thru the lineup are .601/.715/.742. You have some decline, though not precipitous. And TB’s BP was great last year. So pre-game, the idea of having Snell go thru the lineup twice made some sense.
But you don’t pull a guy when he is unhittable either, like Snell was. I’d target Houck getting thru the lineup twice today. But if he is at 65 pitches after 5 innings, with a 6/0 K/W, I’d certainly give the option of going out for a 6th inning.
Boston would have welcomed him opting out at any point. Other than 2020, which they were trying to throw, he has also made them happy he stayed. Has been a win/win contract.
The smart thing to do would be to opt out even if he just has to end up staying with Boston on a 1-year deal. The Red Sox may not offer him a multi-year deal but they will definitely make him a qualifying offer. The QO could somewhat damage his market value in the future because a team that wants to sign him may not be willing to give up a high draft pick on top of his contract money for a 34-year old DH. The best thing Martinez can do is force the Red Sox to go ahead and offer that so it won’t affect his market value after next season. Considering the QO is right around the same price as his option, why not go ahead and make sure no team can ever QO him again? The QO goes up almost every single year. Leat off-season it went up $1.3 million to $18.9 million. It’s likely to go up again and possibly be worth even more than his $19.375 million option. Even if he doesn’t get a multi-year deal the salary he would make is about the same and maybe even more. Then when he hits the free agent market after next season no team can ever QO him again. Worst case scenario he pays a few hundred grand to eliminate his QO. Best case scenario he gets a million plus dollar raise and still eliminates the QO. JD could opt and and still stay with the Red Sox while eliminating the QO and getting a raise to over $20 million at the same time. He should either do that and hit the open market totally unrestricted after next season or do that and just take a bigger multi-year deal with another team that’s willing to pony up the draft pick compensation right now.
The Redsox might not offer the QO.
Yes they will.
Mets WAR – fantastic post!
it doesn’t seem to be a big fan of Cora. I think he’s out.
Tigers? No way! Miggy at $32 mill. plus $20 mill. for JD is too much for TWO DHs!
I think with the Tigers ready to compete, and word out that they will be active on the free agent market, Miggy isn’t their everyday DH next year. Money aside, he plays here and there, and pinch hits.
Tigers have been building a team that finally fits their ballpark — speed and defense! JDM will always be a fan favorite, but he just doesn’t fit this team. Badoo, Grossman, and Riley Greene will be manning the OF next year with Hill, Cameron, and Reyes as depth. Miggy will still be the DH most nights as long as his contract lasts. Torkelson will provide the needed power at 1B, at a fraction of the cost. On the offensive side they will be considering SS and backup C. JDM just doesn’t fit.
Couldn’t agree more. Love JD, but the Tigers have plenty of depth in the outfield.
I really think Hill is going to become a star. I think his ceiling is higher than Granderson’s, and we loved him here.
With a strike over the CBA looming ahead I would take the guaranteed money now if I were him. Plus if the universal DH does become a reality, he can always have that advantage after 2022 in free agency. I doubt his bat will regress that much in one year where he couldn’t still land a good deal.
If his bat regresses even a little–say .275 with 24 HRs–what is he worth then going into 2023 as a 35-y-o free agent? 10MM for one year? There is a real argument that he should opt out and take something even as low as 3/36, which is at least an additional $16MM beyond his present situation. He’s not ready to retire, so he’ll be looking for guaranteed multiple years even at a reduced AAV. He will probably have greater success doing so at 34 than at 35.
The only thing he’s in the middle of is his trips to the bank… If he thinks opting out will net him anything close to what he has I think he’s overvaluing himself in comparison with…oh, 30 GMs.
No reason not to opt out. He could definitely get a better per year amount elsewhere even if only two years. Looking at $25 million plus for two or three years.
His answer of “down the middle” is likely designed to reduce any conflict or create a media distraction in the final days of the regular season. He doesn’t want to say he’s leaving as that would be a distraction. He doesn’t want to lie and says he’s staying when he knows he’s not. So he was non-committal by saying down the middle.
He remains productive, but is also clearly in decline from his peak 2014-2018 run when he posted a 155 OPS+, and a 171 OPS+ at his top in 2017/‘18. Even if we toss out 2020, which we shouldn’t, he still “only” rebounded to a 125 OPS+. A significant drop. His last three seasons paint the picture of a good hitter, but no longer a great one.
It wouldn’t bad for the Red Sox if he stays the final year. Even a 115-120 OPS+ will be valuable, but there’s little reason for Martinez to stay. He’d be delaying his free agency another season when he’ll be a year older. He’d risk having a down season, when here he knows he’s coming off a solid season. Maybe he doesn’t get quite the money he’s guaranteed in 2022 if he stays with the Red Sox, but he’ll get more guaranteed money over perhaps a three-year deal elsewhere.
As noted, it wouldn’t be bad if he stayed, but the Red Sox likely won’t be upset if he does trigger the opt out. They can direct his money elsewhere, probably creating better roster flexibility, while Martinez can opt out for more guaranteed money. This is a scenario where both sides might agree it’s best if he opts out.
@lordd99 Nope. It’s never best for both sides if the player opts out. If Martinez can get more money in free agency it is terrible for the Red Sox if he opts out. Don’t say “But maybe they want to direct his money elsewhere.” They can still do that if he doesn’t opt out by trading him for a prospect or two. If he is playing well enough to opt out, he is playing well enough to have trade value. What sounds better to you: Trading a guy for prospects or losing him for nothing?
There’s plenty of circumstances where it would be best for both sides. If a team has a internal option ready to take over DH at a cheaper price then they might prefer.
If you haven’t noticed most teams are taking on 18 million dollar players even if they put up slightly above average numbers. So in some cases saving the extra couple million not having to kick in cash to get rid of JD for a couple of lower level prospects isn’t worth it. The roster spot available is worth more along with 18 million to spend trumps prospects in some cases.
There’s plenty of times a player opting out is great for the team.
@iverbure Nope. Like I said, even if the Red Sox want to get rid of JD. If he is playing well enough to opt-out it means he is playing well enough to have trade value. Trading a player for prospects (and not having to kick in ANY money to do so) will always always ALWAYS beat losing him for nothing. Always. 100% of the time. Without question.
And they wouldn’t be “lower level prospects” either considering JD is a guaranteed QO if he opts out. If teams are willing to give up a 2nd round draft pick to pay him more than his current contract, then they would definitely be willing to part with interesting prospects for his current contract.
Why on earth would the bluejays need another RH DH bat only type. About as likely as the Yankees getting him.
Teams should avoid these guys like the plague. Inevitably your team will sign some other bum free agent like George Springer who will require playing DH the entire year.
At this point, I hope he does opt out. JD is not good defensively. Devers is not good defensively. Schwarber is not good defensively (should the Red Sox try to keep him) Don’t want the Red Sox to turn into the Yankees and have DH types in the field. To me, offense is a lot easier to find out there than pitching. Get more/better starters behind Sale & Nate!
Don’t want the Red Sox to turn into the Yankees and have DH types in the field? Explain Devers at 3B and Dalbec/Schwarber at 1B
Did you read what Muns wrote? Already stated the Sox are deficient at D and don’t want to get worse. Might want to pay attention.
Pay attention to what? It was a cheap and uneducated dig at the Yankees considering they’re a much better defensive team
Yeah, before the trade deadline, who is the regular 1st baseman for the Yanks? Luke Voit. Who’s your catcher? Gary Sanchez. Who plays in the outfeld some, but shouldn’t play out there at all? Giancarlo Stanton. You sure you watch the Yankees?
There’s a big difference between rolling with the players you have early in the season and doubling down on bad defense by bringing in another liability. Rizzo was there for the taking but the Sox let the Yankees swoop in and get him. Also nobody is denying that Gary is bad behind the plate but C is a very thin position and he at least has a strong arm. Stanton is now and always has been a serviceable OF. He has just mainly been a DH to avoid injury. It’s laughable that you would compare the two teams when on any giving night the Sox have three infielders playing out of position
One person’s serviceable is someone else’s get him the heck out of there. Managers do what they have to with the personnel they are given to work with. While Rizzo might have been a better all around player for the Red Sox to take, you cannot argue that Schwarber has had more of a positive impact than what Rizzo has for the Yankees. You’re the one that said the Yankees have a much better defense, not me. Are they better? I would lean towards yes, but not MUCH better.
There have never been complaints about Stanton’s defense. The whole idea of him being the DH was to keep him healthy. The comparison wasn’t between who’s made a bigger impact on their team. The point was Rizzo would have drastically improved the Sox defense at 1B while also being the left handed bat they were looking for. They chose to turn a defensively challenged LF into a 1B instead. Lastly the Yankees don’t currently have any “DH types in the field.” Meanwhile 75% of the Sox infield is playing out of position
Yep, that defense at first base has cost MANY a team a playoff birth! 75% of the Sox infield is playing out of position? Devers has been a 3rd baseman all along. Granted, he’s not Brooks Robinson out there, but he’s not playing “out of position”. Xander has always been a shortstop, so your 75% crap is already blown. 2nd base has been a rotation of guys due to injury, but nobody in my mind has been playing “out of postion”. Which leaves 1st base. Yes, Bobby Dalbec came up as a 3rd baseman and at the trade deadline he was looking pretty bad. However, since the trade deadline, he’s been on fire and also limiting having to play Schwarber there very much. Most of Schwarber’s playing time has ben at DH & LF. You sure about that 75%?
Munson – I think what KD is saying is that Xander should be at 2B, Dalbec should be at 3B and Devers should be at 1B.
It’s not unreasonable considering how KD has pointed out Devers and Xander are below average defenders who will likely continue to get worse with age.
And yes Schwarber should be rotating with JD for LF/DH.
Like I’ve said before, playing JD/KS in LF, and Verdugo in CF, makes us a very weak defensive team.
Verdugo was ranked as the 4th best CF in MLB earlier this year.
I think we’ve been spoiled by the excellence of JBJ and Mookie, both of whom were spectacular when playing CF.
The dropoff in defense with Verdugo/KS/JD is worth the added offense.
That’s a conversation worth having. But today’s players and their equally large ego’s, won’t allow that to happen. When A=Rod was traded to the Yankees, he was better defensively at SS than Jeter. Who went to 3rd? How about the last 3-4 years Jeter played, he was a lousy defensive SS, but he didn’t move. Xander will most likely not move. Devers, is a DH in waiting until JD is gone. As great as Schwarber has been with the bat, if JD opts in, I don’t think he is a fit with the Sox. If JD opts out, he becomes more of a fit.
Munson I agree with all your points. They actually did move Xander to 3B when they acquired Stephen Drew, but Xander’s overall performance suffered.
Hard to say how he would feel about moving again, certainly if he shows he can adequately play another position that would only help him with his next contract in the near future. It certainly worked for Semien, who moved from SS to 2B when joining the Jays.
I think in 3 years it will be Mayer at SS, unless he turns into a bust.
Jeter was a unique situation, the Yankees could afford to surround him with a lot of talent which made his fielding issues less glaring.
Devers is too young to go straight to DH, I envision an across-the-diamond move similar to Vladdy Jr.
Yeah it’s hard to picture both JD and Kyle returning, probably will be one or the other.
FP – I’m confused am I the KD you are referring to because I haven’t commented on Munsonmanor and Ronk325’s debate. I actually think both have valid points. The Yankees were smart to get Rizzo but that forces Voit to DH and he makes a fine DH which makes Stanton an outfielder and he’s like JD in the outfield. He’s not great but he’s a risk to get hurt foremost so most experts would prefer to play him at DH like JD. His bat is too valuable to take out of the line-up. That makes Voit expendable and his power should bring back a decent return when they move him.
I don’t think Bogey needs to move. I think if Devers goes to DH Bogey’s new metrics go way up immediately. Devers hurts Bogey’s new metrics related to range because he’s a ball hog and the lesser defender which is another indication of his selfishness. He never does what’s best for the team he always does what’s best for Devers. I’d try Dalbec at 3B but going outside to get a proven 3B that can hit makes the most sense. Then with Casas on the way 1B goes to either Dalbec or Casas. Personally , I like Dalbec and want him to stay at 1B. I’ve mentioned many times, he’s ahead of Devers as a hitter at this point in his career. If he progresses like Devers did he’ll be a perennial all-star eventually. Rizzo would have been a great add but it would have made Dalbec or Casas or both expendable and Rizzo is not cheap like Dalbec and Casas..
Schwarber, JD and Stanton are similar defenders but I would rank them Stanton, Schwarber then JD but there isn’t a huge difference in pure defensive skills the big difference is Schwarber is the least likely to hurt himself, then JD then Stanton. All three need to hit so risking any of them makes no sense which supports how stupid Bloom was to get Schwarber.
Now Boston needs to divest themselves of two of the three DHs (Schwarber, JD and Devers). The good news is they can sign JD and then move him to a big market NL team. Same with Schwarber if the Universal DH is implemented. That could bring the pitching BOS needs and an upgrade in the outfield. Renfroe and Verdugo are good players but not great players. Duran is a young inexpensive option in center field so one of the corner outfielders logically should be moved along with JD and Schwarber to get a star corner outfielder of Mookie’s caliber. The 2022 payroll loses Pedroia’s money next year and $16M more the following year when Price drops off. Unless the plan is to have a $100M payroll rather than a $200M payroll like our main competition there is tons of money to pay for a superstar like Mookie at Corner Outfield or 3B.
I still say Hayes from Pittsburgh would look good as the Red Sox next 3B. So lets use the crap LAD gave us to make the team better. Lets trade Downs, Wong and Verdugo to Pittsburgh for Hayes and Roberts. That solves all 3B issues going forward and allows us to either play JD and Schwarber in corner outfield spots or move them because Devers is the new DH. That deal also buys time for Duran to develop as a player but more importantly it raises the talent level which hasn’t happened since Bloom arrived.
Munsonmanor71 – OUTSTANDING!! So right about Jeter and AROD. Jeter didn’t have the arm to play SS or the range and will always be one of the most over-rated players in history because his skills were marginal but he was a smart player as opposed to ARODs skills which were elite but his baseball acumen wasn’t as great. The Yankees made a huge mistake based on personality not performance. Yes, it worked out really well for Jeter but it clearly hurt AROD’s career. He likely would have been the greatest SS of all time whereas Jeter I consider a Top 10 at best but nowhere near AROD.
Who knows maybe Jeter might have actually been the best 2B during one of his 20+ years in baseball but clearly he never accomplished that at SS. From guys like RIpken,to Nomar to Larkin, to Tejada, to H Ramirez to Tulowitzski. For over 20 years Jeter was over-shadowed by the performances of one of these great SS. During a few of his peak years he was close to being the best but never made it over that hump yet got into the HOF on the first vote by being a Yankee captain and a press friendly individual. They were willing to overlook his shortcomings as a player because of his personality and his powerful political persona created by his brand managers. It’s sad that HOF voting is so biased. Phil Rizzuto just one more Yankee with a Hall Pass thanks to politics. If anyone ever compared Trammel to RIzzuto you would have to ask what the writers were thinking about when they delayed one and let the other in. Rizzuto plays 13 years with ONE year of OPS+ over 103 and THREE years with OPS+ over 100!!! Trammel played 20 years with 9 years with an OPS+ over 100 AND SIX of those years his OPS+ was over 130!! Rizzuto’s top year was 122!!! Ahhhh, the inequities of the HOF. I apologize I digressed!!
Thanks for bring up the Jeter vs AROD discussion!!
FFTD, but I don’t think that would work even under normal conditions. But right now, Iglesias has the highest September OPS on the team. I could accept an argument for starting Schwarber as a regular LF, but our team ERA for September is 3.92, while it ranged from 4.29-4.90 in the previous 4 months. Some of that can be attributed to our improved defense.
Let him walk and sign Kris Bryant.
Don’t bet on that 25aav for 2-3 years. Cruz is old, but his really strong DH numbers got him 13mil. Universal DH would certainly help his leverage if it happened, but even then GMs tend not to get carried away paying that lineup spot with pitching being rather expensive.
@pburns65…….please elaborate. It seems Cora is a huge reason for their much improved season of 20.
At the beginning of the season JD , himself , said he was focused and destined to have a more productive season with much more impressive numbers ; knowing Joey would be in charge.
J.D. had minimal suitors for what he was looking for five years ago and that was after the torrid streak he had with the Diamondbacks. Now he’ll be five years older, not five years better and we’ve seen how unkind free agency has been to players his age. With the uncertainty about whats going to happen with the CBA he should probably stay and take the guaranteed money
Since the QO will probably be worth more than the final year of his deal, it would make sense for JD to opt out. He could stay in Boston for one more year at a slightly higher salary then hit free agency the following year without the QO attached
Good point about the QO It makes opting out, then accepting the QO a viable strategy for JD. Makes you wonder if the Sox would withhold the QO, just to make sure he cannot stay. [E-Rod is another who would probably jump on a QO–the Sox can’t chance getting stuck with both for $38MM.)
We’d have enough money for both, though that obviously decreases the amount available for some additional relief pitching. I assume that, if JD opts out, he already has an unofficial offer elsewhere, so he wouldn’t be accepting it. More importantly, what are the deadlines for him opting out, and us extending a QO? Down below, someone mentioned he had 5 days after the WS. If he opts out, I wouldn’t think twice about offering him a QO.
ERod is a little trickier. The ERA is obviously high, but the peripherals are good, and his ERA over his last 17 starts is 3.92. I’d prefer something along the lines of $51M/3, but if we cannot reach a deal, I’d offer him the QO and not care if accepted or not.
I wouldn’t worry about having extra cash for relief pitching as Bloom seems to go the Tampa Bay route and piece it together all season long. They do need another Starter to go with Sale and Eovaldi. Whether it is picking up Richards option of re-signing ERod or someone else entirely they need another arm
Ronk, how do you know what the QO will be? Last year it was $18.9M, how much more do you think it will increase?
I think it will be an amount that is very close to what JD has scheduled for the last year of his contract.
The QO has gone up roughly $1M every year so this year it should be somewhere close to $20M. The last year of JD’s contract will pay him $19.375M. With the amounts being so similar it would make sense for him to opt out and get the QO now, assuming it’s offered, then not have the QO attached to him the following year
There’s no way the Blue Jays would consider him. They need the DH spot for every time Springer hurts his legs, to get Vladdy off his feet from time to time, to occasionally spare a pitcher from Gurriel’s fielding, and because memories of Kendrys Morales are too fresh.
Please opt out!! Red Sox have yo retain Schwarber he fits the lineup great as a Lh bat too well. Please let JD walk and have him underperform elsewhere
Pippy – I’m ok with you not liking JD but he’s not under performing. Why would you think that?
JD – $22M – OPS+ 125
Bogey – $20M – OPS+ 128
Devers – $4.6M – OPS+ 139
Renfro – $3.1M – OPS+ 115
Verdugo – $0.6M – OPS+ 107
Hernandez – $ 7M – OSP+ 106
As you can see Renfroe is the fourth best hitter and he’s barely over league average. There are three studs on the team plus Schwarber whose lifetime OPS+ is 119. He’s had some very bad years and some very good years. 2021 is by far his best year both in WAS and BOS.
JD’s OPS+ with BOS is 139 and BOS paid him $22M for that productivity. It was a good deal for BOS because others putting up numbers like him have gotten bigger contracts. By comparison, Bogey’s OPS+ for 9 years with BOS is 115 and he’s making $2M less per year. Devers OPS+ is 119 for 5 years with BOS. Mookie’s OPS+ in 6 years with BOS was 134 and is 137 in LA. Guess it was pretty dumb to move him from the roster!! Benny’s OPS+ in BOS for 5 years was 107. That’s the same as the phenom Verdugo in 2021 and better than Hernandez in 2021.
Even Chavis who got screwed over and never got to start to prove himself has gone to Pittsburgh and in a small sample prior to his injury his OPS+ was 128!! Again a small sample but possibly an indication of what he might have done if management had done the right thing and moved Devers to DH 4 years ago or 100 errors ago. We’ll never know now but I hope Chavis gets a fair shake in PIT to prove he deserved a chance to outplay Devers at 3B.
If I was JD I’d want out of BOS because of Cora. He would receive far more respect elsewhere and he probably would enjoy the culture of a winning team not the chaotic culture that now exists in BOS. Betts is happy in LA. Benny is thriving in KC and Chavis has done well in PIT and even JBJ has done well in MIL. So moving JD after he opts in makes sense and is a win-win. JD gets his respect back and a one-year contract to prove himself before the Universal DH goes into effect and BOS frees up money and reduces it’s DHs to TWO.
Opting out is not better than opting in and being traded for something that is needed rather than having 3 DHs.
Rink, you are assuming the Six make him the QO, which is highly unlikely.
If he does opt out it is 100% guaranteed that they extend the QO
Yeah definitely not a 100%.
Goat is 100% right.
Because if JD does opt out, there’s no way in Haiti he’ll accept a QO that is slightly less or the same as what he would have been paid if he hadn’t opted out.
no way that he doesn’t stay in Boston.
no else will offer as much as $19m+/season his his services
Trade him to the Dodgers – isn’t that the routine for the small market (minded) Red Sox? The poor Red Sox and their billion-dollar-enterprise.
The Red Sox are probably #2 or #3 in payroll over the past 18 years. Complaining about how poor the RS are makes us sound like Yankee fans.
Don’t think 30 parks is one of “us”. He’s jealous the Red Sox can still make the playoffs, even if they don’t overspend.
Get used to it, rule changes are making big spending teams extinct. Luxury tax, loss of draft picks and int pool money. It doesn’t pay to overspend (in general). And I like it.
The Red Sox don’t overspend…..that’s pretty funny!
Isn’t their 2021 just a touch below $200 million? That puts them right up their with the biggest spenders in the league
Red Sox Spent 19mil in 2020, (21st place), and 38mil in 2021 (13th place). —Per Spotrac. Those numbers are incredibly low for a team that historically is in top 4 in spending. As far as overall overall payroll, they are only in 6th place, down from 1st in 2019. They may reverse this, but right now they are definitely trending down.
… the Dodgers never overspend. Great point.
1-I doubt he is opting out. He would need to be guaranteed that the NL would have the DH. Right now, I can’t see which AL team will sign him. Not a lot of AL teams devote a slot to DH. And a few have no money. And some already have a quasi-DH.
2-I’d like to see him opt out. We have candidates to take his place, and could use the money, and the draft pick. OTOH, he is still a decent player, so I wouldn’t sweat it.
3-And, depending on Schwarber price tag, I wouldn’t re-sign him. He was a good acquisition, but 2021 is an aberration. His OPS+ prior to 2021 is only 113. That’s not high enough for someone without a glove. Plus Verdugo should be our full-time LF, with no thoughts about CF.
Having said that, I guess a team could offer him $45M/3, which he might prefer over the $19M/1.
I think he does better than 3yr/45m, possibly touching 3yr/54m with some type of option for the 3rd year with a buyout. 45m would still be a win for him though as it’s an added 26m over the following two years.
3/45 sounds about on. 34 years old, numbers declining. Tons of other big names this year to spend $$ on. Most teams don’t like to pay big bucks on DH. They prefer to go cheap there, and utilize the spot for multiple players.
Papi went thru the same thing in his mid-30s. He had to go year to year for contract, because he knew he couldn’t get long term contract, that still paid big.
Then you don’t want to see him opt out because then you could trade him to that other team for prospects.
He is just waiting for the ruling on if NL has DH. If so he will come to the Mets for cheap to bring us a ring
He stopping at Zales to pick up that ring before he flys in? That’s the only way it’s going to happen. Lol
He can’t wait for that ruling. He has to make a decision on the opt-out within five days of the end of the WS.
You guys better hope you can stay above the Rockies…the Brew Crew walked all over the Mets and Baez’ antics, while proving entertainment for non-fans, is a distraction for the team. He may lose opportunities in FA if he maintains his current posture. I so hope he re-signs with the Mets, but if you have to be told not to make fun of your own fan base, you’re probably not a good fit for a lot of owners.
“dig at the Yankees”? Cashman notorious for bringing in big hitter/low fielder types for long long contracts. This creates DH types. As recently as 2019 (Stanton, Frazier, Encarcion, Gardner, Voit), 5 guys could’ve been DHs. They all had negative values as defenders. Yankees fans love the long ball, don’t really look at overall (fielding, baserunning, small ball) game. Just look at the phone booth they built, and called it a ball park. Cashman has done better this year, but usually the only slick fielding players Yankees have, are homegrown. Sorry if the truth hurts.
The Sox may be privately keeping fingers crossed that he opts out.
King Ken I think has it right in comment above.
Then he is absolutely, 100% not going to.
Not a fit with Detroit IMO. Detroit’s going to spend big this off season. Don’t be surprised to see Mad Max back and I’m going to have a hot take and Say they sign Correa.
Detroit doesn’t need to spend big. They’ve got plenty of depth all positions except SS. I believe that they will hold off on a stud shortstop and give Kreidler a chance. What they have now isn’t awful. We settled for a great glove on Iglesias, but his batting was dismal throughout much of his tenure in Detroit. What we have this year, I’d bet was better than what we had with Iglesias.
Iglesias batted close to 300 with great D in Detroit. His rising salary wasn’t a fit in Detroit as the Tigers wanted to get a look at their younger players in a rebuild.
Iglesias has little power while SS has become a “5 too” position with the emergence of home run hitting SSs.
And no way Scherzer ends up back in Detroit. There’s some hard feelings on both ends.
I would actually like to see JD opt out but I don’t think that happens to much risk and very little upside.
He can’t wait to see if the NL adopts the DH rule so unless he is convinced that is happening by Boras then his market is limited. There is the real possibility of a lockout this year and I doubt he wants to be on the market during said lockout and the third reason to not opt out he is simply not as good as he was when he signed with Boston he is most likely on the downward portion of his career and other teams probably feel that was as well. The market is usually not good for aging DH types. The conclusion unfortunately is that JD will opt in to his contract within that five day period. Then the question is does Boston try and move him if they decide to go with Schwarber as there next DH type? That is the real question.
Bruin1012 – Seriously? Schwarber at DH?
Let JD opt in and trade both he and Schwarber and move Devers to DH!!! I can’t keep watching 2 dozen errors a year. It’s pathetic. It’s embarrassing. It’s killing the FIPs. It’s killing ERAs and WHIPs. Why do that to your pitching staff?.
Dump the concept of 3 DHs and go to something that makes sense. Tons of holes to fill so move JD and Schwarber and start filling them. No more excuses for Bloom being completely ineffective. Fix the holes and stop playing musical chairs with utility players for the sake of depth. Your starters win games and the Red Sox starting line-up is not comparable to the Yankees, Rays or Blue Jays. Huge upgrades are needed and Schwarber and JD can get some of those upgrades. Trade the crap we got from LAD and that gets more holes filled.
Bloom needs to finally take actions that will boost the talent level or leave. His time is up and he’s accomplished very little from a replacing the great players he threw away and he’s also not added value players with starting players at other spots where they are needed.
What’s needed? Simple
1 – Devers to DH
2 – A real 3B who fields and hits (Dalbec? maybe)
3 – A left fielder to replace the huge hole left by Benny
4 – Duran to grow into the CF spot
5 – An upgrade from Verdugo. He’s half a Mookie.
6 – A replacement for Price at SP2
7 – A closer to finally replace Kimbrel
8 – More quality set-up men
9 – To spend $200M again
10 = A manager who can set a logical line-up, handle a pitching staff and doesn’t have a long history of cheating.
10 simple steps to fixing the Red Sox.
KD – Of course I agree with you on Devers’ poor defense.
But how come you never mention the same thing with Xander?
Of the 23 shortstops in MLB with over 800 innings at the position, Xander is 19th in Defensive Runs Saved.
For Outs Above Average, Xander is 34th out of 35 qualifying shortstops.
His lack of range is what’s killing his defense, especially to his right.
The Red Sox AL-worst .324 BA on BIP isn’t all because of Xander.
So maybe Xander should move to 3B and Devers to 1B?
Or maybe Xander to 2B and Dalbec switches positions with Devers?
One way or another, Xander’s defense needs to be addressed.
FPG – First DRS is a bull crap stat. ERRORS are all that matter. I don’t give a flying duck about range or anything else. I care that the damn fielder catches the ball and throws out the hitter. That’s ALL!!!!! Do the what if analysis on his fielding in a closed room with a lock on the door so none of the stupidity escapes.
Wake up and smell the coffee about defense. Devers falls down on so many plays and often does not get an error unlike tonight when he destroyed Sale’s game with his error. Devers is the epitome of SELFISH. If as a player I cost my team that many games I’d ask to change positions to somewhere I wouldn’t hurt the team. This kid is all ego and no humility thanks to Cora. I’m so pissed off that he cost them a critical game and nobody gives a damn. I’m pissed that the idiot Bloom goes out and gets a DH in Schwarber when they already had TWO DHs so 2022 they can have THREE.
Your frustration with Bogaerts is completely misdirected. There is no comparison between Xander and Devers defensively. One has fallen to league average (yes it would be nice if he hadn’t dropped off a bit) and one has been so far below league average since he arrived five years ago seeing league average for Devers is like a golfer on a Links Golf Course trying to see the ball land after he hits out of a 20 foot deep sand trap and the ball lands on the green. Yep, league average isn’t even visible to Devers!!!
NEVER has Devers looked good defensively. Game after game he costs the Red Sox wins and nobody fixes the problem. That’s top down ineptitude. Bloom, Cora and any defensive coaches they have should all be fired for incompetence.
A quick aside about Bogey. Just for fun, go back and look up info on shortstops from the Yaz era. Rico and others. The errors happened back then at SS too. Bogey doesn’t have to be a great SS to be perfect for this team. Devers CAN’T be the worst 3B in baseball and be perfect for this team. He needs to be traded or moved to DH this off season. If he whines like the baby he is then ship him to Siberia like Chavis and Benny.
Tonight’s line-up is why a team can only win so many games when your line-up is all wrong. Schwarber leads off and his homer is more meaningful and he bats 5 spots earlier at the end of the game. Bogaerts, JD, Devers need to hit in the first four spots. Cora’s protege (Iglesias) needs to sit so Verdugo can play. The best NINE players need to be starting. Let the protege pinch hit when Cora is feeling lucky and it’s the bottom of the order.
The first game against BAL is what’s wrong with the Red Sox in a microcosm. The batting order is wrong, the defense is wrong because the overall skill level is bad compared to what it should be. Bloom hasn’t done his job, Cora hasn’t done his job and ownership abandoned the fan base since firing DD.
I was afraid JB was wrongfully thumping his chest about the Red Sox while they were playing over their heads that things might come to this point. All the fans got really excited as if this team was good and finally they reverted to their skill level and are falling on their faces as I expected going into the season. Cora is supposed to be this great motivation manager and the team looked completely uninspired until Sale blew a gasket when the homer was hit. Clearly, he wants to win badly.
Cora in the post game interview said no big deal you must keep a calm demeanor. Bull crap!!!! Somebody needs to be fired up out of their minds with 5 games left. This fake facade that Cora preaches is another bunch of bull crap. The only time the team looks relaxed is when they are winning. That’s not how you maintain a professional approach to baseball but Cora wouldn’t know it because he wasn’t a starter or a winner when he played.
After that interview, I wished they had fired him on the spot and found a guy off the streets who would be pumped up and revving up the team like Holt used to. A few cheerleaders in the dugout is not a bad thing. Right now, the Red Sox are in a position to bounce back and make the WC1 if they sweep the remaining games and that’s very possible considering the opponents but the uninspired game tonight suggests that won’t happen. Something needs to change and someone needs to be accountable for the bad decisions about the line-up, the defensive alignment and the mismanaging of the pitching staff.
Sale got pulled after 85 pitches in a 2-2 game!!! Think about the inning and why you would pull your ace with so few pitches. Devers starts the inning with an error and that changes the game from a 2=1 game to a 2-2 game when after getting their best hitter to fly out Sale gives up a home run to the ROY. That was the SECOND legitimate hit in the game and then a base hit to center sends him to the showers? WTF!! Bad managing again!! Sale vs Robles? No brainer, stay with Sale for at least one more hitter since it’s the heart of their order. Mismanagement of the pitching staff. Cora needs a t-shirt that has those words on it. WoW he continually shows just how bad a manager he is. It’s inexcusable that a guy who cheated like he did got a job doing something he’s not qualified to do.
KD, great post!!
Obviously I agree with you on Devers and Cora, although I wouldn’t call Devers selfish. He reminds me a LOT of Manny. All he wants to do is hit, his mind is not on anything else. He has a hard time focusing on defense and baserunning, he spaces out … just like Manny.
As for Xander, I love the guy but there’s a reason why he’s never grouped among the best shortstops in the game. I’ve heard enough from expert analysts, scouts and players around MLB … he’s a big dude (6’2″) that just doesn’t get to grounders the way elite shortstops can. If we had a strong defensive 3B and 2B then Xander’s defense wouldn’t be such an issue, but we don’t.
As for the batting order, I stand by my view that Verdugo should be leading off and Xander batting 2nd. They both have high OBP and speed, the two most important skills for the top two spots in the lineup.
Schwarber has way too much power and is way too slow to bat any higher than 3rd. That’s one thing you keep forgetting, SPEED is essential in the top two spots of the lineup. You don’t want a situation where Schwarber is on first base, and the guy behind him has the speed to take two bases but can’t because Schwarber is running station to station. Throughout MLB history there has ALWAYS been leadoff guys with very good speed. If you always focus on just OBP,then the best hitter on every team will be leading off because the best hitters typically have the highest OBP!
Kike is fine as the leadoff hitter since the beginning of June he has had one of the if not the highest OBP of any leadoff hitter. Look at the Yankee series it wasn’t because of Kike he was on base something like 9 times in 12 official at bats. So I don’t believe there leadoff hitter is the problem. You can argue it all you want but he has gotten on base somewhere around .400 since June and seems to understand he needs to take walks and get on base so no issue at the leadoff spot.
I do not like Renfroe at the number 2 slot to me that makes very little sense. I am also not a big Cora fan I don’t think he is a very good game manager.
The Red Sox top priority in the offseason should be in signing Rasiel Iglesias as there new closer. They need a true closer that is lights out and he fits the bill. They should also be looking at pitching, pitching and more pitching. KD I do agree with on Devers defensively he is just to big of a liability and makes to many errors. They need to try someone else at third perhaps Dalbec.
I don’t agree with the huge talent drop other then Mookie. It wasn’t that big a drop as a matter a fact left field Verdugo is better then 10d so no huge hole there. Price didn’t want to pitch in Boston and while he may be talented he just didn’t want to be here so no trouble moving Price. I really don’t think the personnel decisions have been the problem. The only real loss has been Mookie and that was an ownership decision not the brand new GM’s decision.
I guess as time goes on I am more and more disillusioned by Cora I don’t think he is a very good game manger. I think he relates to most of the players well and I think most of them respect him so maybe they can hire someone who is a much better in game strategist to help Cora that is where he is sorely lacking. I don’t think they are going to fire Cora so that’s a moot point.
I think that Bloom has done a pretty solid job and I expect that he will address most if not all of the issues this offseason. I think the defense will be addressed and especially the pitching. Like I said above I’m signing Rasiel Iglesias this offseason and that is priority number one. I would also like the Red Sox to target another higher end starter to go along with Sale, Evo, Houck, Pivetta and probably Whitlock. I guess what I’m saying the need in the offseason is pitching, pitching and more pitching.
FPG – Speed isn’t critical in the top spot anymore because the two hitter no longer bunts players into scoring position. The 2 hitter is now a power hitter on well planned line-ups so the speed factor isn’t critical for the first spot it’s a bonus. Mookie was ideal because he was a nice power and speed combo as is Springer. But Schwarber won’t hurt a power hitting 2nd hitter because they will often double (Devers as an example) and Schwarber won’t slow down Devers. Then JD, the RBI machine drives in both after Devers doubles. Bogey then drives in JD from 2nd. Then Renfroe is yet another power guy who follows Bogey. Verdugo, Dalbec, Catcher then Kiki. That line-up maximizes their chances for scoring runs.
I really like the first four being the best hitters because of 2018. Before the idiot Cora moved Pearce into the 3 hole the team pulled out so many come from behind wins with Betts, Benny, JD and Bogey putting up runs late when the bottom of the order flipped to the top in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning. That’s the critical time you DON’T want guys who aren’t top 4 hitters on the team batting in the first 4 spots. I bet Boston won 20 games in 2018 thanks to the batting order being logical through July 31!
During the off season when Bloom hopefully figures out that 3 DHs is 2 too many they can move Schwarber and JD to get a guy like Mookie to hit first. Wait, wouldn’t it have been easier to just keep him? hahaha Such idiots run the Red Sox organization! They had the perfect guy and decided 1/3 of billion profits per year wasn’t enough to pay him to be the star they needed at the top of the order!!! OUCH. That’s painful for Red Sox fans that want to see rings happen!.
Bruin1012 – I looked up Kiki’s OBP and you are right that he did well in July and August (.381 and .426) but SEP is .277 which is terrible. Four of the six months this year his OBP was under .330 so I don’t like him at lead-off. I still say he’s a better 9 hitter.
This may surprise you as it did me but Schwarber’s OBP is good for a leadoff hitter and his power makes him nearly ideal except for his lack of speed. His OBP in SEP is .365 while his July and Aug as a comparison to Kiki was (.600 and .492). Even when Kiki’s numbers were good Schwarber was better.
Hunter Renfroe’s OBP is higher than I expected. His July=Sep numbers are (.277, 326 and .330) Yes he’s far better than Kiki in Sept too but his numbers don’t suggest he is a top of the order guy.
Jul-Sep for the other top of the order guys in my opinion
Bogey (.315, .336, and .354)
JD (.317, .317 and .352)
Devers (.378, .314 and .373)
This would suggest an order of Schwarber, Devers, Bogey and JD.
For those Verdugo fans and Dalbec fans their numbers were:
Verdugo (.320, .410, .362) That suggests Verdugo, Schwarber, Bogey, Devers and JD at the top of the order as long as he’s having a good month.
Dalbec (.234, 431 and .325) After his first 300 at bats Dalbec has really improved his hitting. I have often mentioned that his numbers are better than Devers’ were at the start of his career. That is a very promising sign for the future.
I know you like Bloom light years more than I do but with out action in the first two years with respect to the things you suggest he will fix this off season, what’s the basis for thinking his actions will increase and things like the defense will be addressed and the pitching will be addressed?
Iglesias the closer works for me. A lefty SP to slot after Eovaldi works for me and foremost a new 3B works for me. If it’s Dalbec then teach Schwarber how to play 1B until Casas arrives. Sign JD and trade him. Put Duran back in CF with Verdugo and Renfroe and the team is still the 4th most talented in the division but it’s closer to third than it’s been since the Mookie debacle.
KD you need to look a little closer at Kike’s OBP and factor in he had a particularly nasty case of Covid. He looked terrible when he came back for the first 9 games but since then has his timing back and is back to close to .400 again since those first 9 games. I no you don’t like Kike very much but I’m guessing that even you can cut him some slack since he has turned it on again after those first 9 games and looks very similar to the .400 OBP he has been since mid June with the exception of those games back after Covid. My conclusion Kike has been an excellent leadoff hitter for almost 3 months now leadoff is not the Red Sox problem.
If he opts out Boston will QO him and at least they’d get compensation (unless he’s already gotten a QO – not sure). But for a player at his age and in his position with the NL going to the DH, opting out is a 100% no brainer. He’ll likely get at minimum 3/55 and probably better. It’s his last chance for a big multi year contract. He’s got to go for it.
Nope. Never got a QO. The season before he signed with Boston he was traded at the deadline so he wasn’t allowed to be QO’d.
Any team could make room I suppose, just where would he fit in the Jays? The don’t really need a DH only slugger.
The Red Sox would be thrilled if he opted out. While his option is for $19.35MM, the Competitive Balance Tax hit for next year is $22MM, based on Average Annual Value. The market for him would be similar to the market for Nelson Cruz, who has been getting $12MM – $14MM since he was 34 years old.
Ok then he’s absolutely, 100% not going to opt out. Only player who has ever opted out when his team wanted him to was A. J. Burnett with the Phillies. And that doesn’t count because him opting out was more about getting to go play for a contender than maximizing every last dollar.
TJ5960 = Please explain how the market for a 42 year old is the same as a 34 year old!! There is nothing similar between Cruz and JD except they are both all-star caliber players that are DHs.
You just don’t get it. The payroll next year is down enough to have paid Mookie his $36M and to get a closer and SP. DD knew that and simply asked the ownership to pay for THEIR mistakes. They told him to f off and fired him and got a clown with no balls, a patsy.
The new trend is to not spend.!!! How does that benefit the fans?
Are you part of management or a fan? Your priorities seem very out of line for a fan. Over 1/3 of a billion in profits and you are worried about the poor owners who might make $2.65M less because people were quoting his cash payment not his luxury tax payment. You do get that the out of pocket to ownership is lower so that’s good for their gold hoarding. With a payroll under $150M in 2022 the luxury tax vs cash is meaningless.
You are right that Bloom would be thrilled which speaks directly to how screwed up his thinking is. The jack=ass needs to be run out of town on a rail!!! Just like he did to Mookie, Benny and others.
Bloom has a plan and I don’t believe it involves many long term contracts for 30+ year olds. And as others have mentioned lineup flexibility it critical.
san888 – line-up flexibility is a loser approach. Get rid of Bloom and his losers approach and the team might see a ring sooner than 86 years.
I believe JD has plenty of good reasons to opt out.
1 – Cora treats him like crap from respect standpoint and has since 2018
2 – He knows wherever he goes he’ll be an all-star since he has been over the past three full seasons with video. He was 4th in the MVP vote and got screwed by Cora in 2018. He was 21st in the MVP vote in 2019 a slightly down year compared to 2018. In 2021 he was an all-star again and he can’t do anything about Cora screwing with him in the line-up. He bats him 3rd all year and he’s likely in the MVP hunt yet again.
3 – BOS needs him far more than he needs BOS. With the grossly depleted skill level since they lost Betts, Benny, Price,and others they can’t afford losing him because there is no guarantee that Bloom won’t get 20 more utility players to try and replace him.
4 – He’s not a Bloom guy so there is no loyalty just like the other guys sent packing since Bloom took over.
5 – He’s getting older so he wants to play with a team that could win a ring in the next couple of years not sometime later this century. (Bloom approach to the long haul for improving)
Will JD opt out? I don’t think so because he’s a guy with integrity in the midst of so many lacking integrity. Like Benny, Chavis and others I think he’s been loyal and only leaves if they push him out the door for not being a Bloom guy.
The crap about his numbers not being good is just that …. a bunch of crap. 126 OPS+ out of the fifth hole without protection is comparable to an OPS+ of 139 out of the 3 hole with protection. BOS will probably ignore the fact that he helped many hitters improve when he came to BOS and mentored younger players on how to prepare for a game.
He’s a great guy who deserves better than what he’s gotten in BOS since DD left. Fire Cora and he definitely stays. The next manager will put him in the 3 hole where he belongs rather than flipping a coin, asking his lucky 8 ball or checking the alignment of the moon to determine the batting order..
I’m sorry but J.D has been batting behind Devers with either Schwarber or Verdugo behind him and more recently Dalbec coming up behind whichever of those 2 lefties is in the game. Thats a pretty good spot in the lineup my friend. Unless you trade him to Toronto or youre gonna let him carry a pistol to the plate I don’t see how he is going get any better protected than he already is. He’s just a very good but no longer quite elite bat. Love J.D while he was here but all good things come to an end. As many others have pointed out we have younger, cheaper, and maybe even better guys to use the DH spot for
Bob – You missed the point. It’s about the first four spots being your four best hitters so they get the most at bats in the game. I believe JD performs better in the 3 hole and his history shows he gets more RBI opportunities in that spot. He may hit for a higher average in another slot but he’s there to drive in runs and he does that best in the 3 hole.
As long as Schwarber leads off, I don’t care which of the 3 hits 2 thru 4 but it must be the best four hitters so at the end of the game when the bottom of the order rolls to the top you don’t have two average hitters like Kiki and Renfroe hitting before you get to the best hitters. It’s wasted at bats that often causes a loss. I like Renfroe and seeing him hit 5 is ideal. Kiki is another Cora baby so he gets opportunities he hasn’t earned. He should bat last so there is speed prior to Schwarber so in the rare event Kiki gets a hit late in the game when things are most critical he’ll be on base for Schwarber.
Verdugo has been sitting for Iglesias and that’s another Cora error. Play the best 9 and make sure the best hitters are at the top of the order for late inning rallies. That’s all I’m saying.
Tonight’s line-up puts BOS at a disadvantage once again. I hope they overcome the disadvantage but when things aren’t going well you always dance with the one that brought you to the dance. JD, Bogey, Devers and now Schwarber brought them to the dance not Kiki or Renfroe.
KD – Over the years I have heard many players say they like having a set spot in the lineup, just like I’ve heard many pitchers say they like a set role in the bullpen (8th inning guy, 9th inning guy, etc).
I understand why. Baseball players are creatures of habit, they like to get to the ballpark and already know where they will be hitting or when they will be pitching. This is one of the reasons why Theo’s “Closer By Committee” was a colossal failure.
So regardless of what order the lineup should be, there’s far too much shuffling which probably hurts the hitters rather than helps. And the excessive days off don’t help either. When a player is in the zone, like Schwarber and Dalbec had been not too long ago, they want to keep it going by playing. Making them sit will only cool them off.
Perfect example is Stanton, he’s been in such a groove for nearly three weeks. Do you see Boone benching him to give playing time to Gallo, Voit or Rizzo because of supposedly better matchups? No!!
It’s a simple rule, play the hot hand as long as it remains hot. Same deal with Cora removing pitchers too soon, like last night.
FPG – Completely agree!!
JDM would be a great fit for Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies as a DH.
Tigers have a lot of young players to look at and evaluate next year while moving back into playoffs contention. They have some SSs in the pipeline. Their OF will be crowded especially if Green is promoted sometime in ’22. Tigers INF is also getting crowded with Paredes, Candelario Schoop, Cabrera and expected promotions of Torkelson and Kreidler and maybe Dingler..
Not seeing JD as a fit in Detroit.
NL DH will open up a lot of jobs and may lead JD to “opt out”.
SportsFanoooo – I agree. Not a good fit in Detroit and likely to opt out if Universal DH is approved. I think Detroit looks to be scary good in the next few years. They are a couple years behind the White Sox who are a year behind Toronto so the changing of the guard is in the near future when it comes to top AL teams.
Wednesday games have ended and I hope some of the Red Sox fans are returning to normal blood pressure. I still believe they will get the WC1 by winning their next 3 games while the Yankees lose 2 of their next 3 games. Just remember BOS only has to win 1 more game than NY to be WC1. NY still has 1 in TOR and 3 against the league leading TB Rays. BOS needs another performance like Eovaldi’s and Cora needs to not panic if his starter gets in trouble. No mistakes like pulling Sale yesterday. Right now the starters are more reliable than the relievers. If Pivetta pitches like he’s capable of and the team hits like they should a win will happen on Thursday. It would help a lot if Cora used sound baseball logic to build his batting order but I’m past hoping for miracles. The idiot will continue to make this more challenging than it has to be for the players. Bad managers can’t be fixed in the heat of a pennant race.
Just remember, it’s very likely NY will lose TWO against TB. So even if they beat TOR on Thursday, BOS still has a good chance of getting WC1 if they can take 2 of 3 versus WAS and of course finish off BAL with a win. Hopefully the advanced scouting for WAS figured out they need to walk Soto nearly every time he comes to the plate. He’s the main threat to beating BOS in the next series.
Here is a wild thought. As of Wednesday night
NY is 90-68 with 1 at TOR and 3 vs TB
BOS is 89-69 with 1 at BAL and 3 at WAS
SEA is 89-70 with 3 vs LAA
TOR is 88-70 with 1 vs NY and 3 vs BAL
If NY goes 2-2, BOS goes 3-1, SEA goes 3-0 and TOR goes 4-0 there will be a four way tie for the wildcard spots at 92-70!!!
The tie-breaker starts with H2H:
Boston vs NYY is 10-9, TOR is 10-9 and SEA 4-3 for a H2H record of 23-21
NYY vs BOS is 9-10 TOR will be either 7-12 SEA 5-2 total – 19-25
TOR vs BOS is 9-10 NYY is 12-7 SEA 2-4 total – 23-21
SEA vs BOS 3-4 NYY 2-5 TOR 4-2 total – 9-11
Therefore, if the 4 way tie happens
on Monday
SEA plays in BOS
NYY play in TOR
on Tuesday
the two winners play at the higher ranked teams field
on Wednesday the Tuesday winner plays in TB!!
What a nightmare!! BOS can avoid the nightmare by winning out.
If they win out it would take NYY winning out for them to not be the WC1 and host the wildcard game. BOS is still not needing help from anyone to make the playoffs!!! They just need to play as well as everyone else except the Yankees. They need to beat the Yankees by 1 game for the home field advantage..
KD – The Rays are only 14-13 this month
In 2019 the Yanks won the division by 7 games, and lost 4 of their last 5 including their last 2
In 2018 the Red Sox won the division by 8 games, and lost 3 of their last 4
In 2017 the Red Sox won the division by 2 games, and lost 3 of their last 4
In 2016 the Red Sox won the division by 4 games, and lost 5 of their last 6 including their last 2
In 2015 the Blue Jays won the division by 6 games, and lost 4 of their last 5 including their last 2
In 2014 the Orioles won the division by 12 games, they lost 3 of their last 4
In 2013 the Red Sox won the division by 5.5 games, they lost 3 of their last 5 including their last 2
Do you see a pattern here my friend???
It’s very UNLIKELY the NYY lose the final series against Tampa.
History has shown when a team has clinched all there is to clinch, during the final 3 games of the regular season their best pitchers either sit or are pulled early and their starting position players either sit out or play just a few innings. Winning is meaningless.
Therefore the Yankees, winners of 8 of their last 9, have essentially already won WC1.
I think we are at a point now where the Sox have to win at least 2 games in DC to get into a Play-In game, or have to sweep to win WC2 outright.
Because if I had to guess, Toronto and Seattle win at least 2 of 3 games this weekend.
And I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there’s a 3-way tie between the Sox, Jays and M’s.
He was fun to have but I won’t miss him
Add a year at the same salary, if he doesn’t take it go with Schwarber
If there’s anyone left who still pays any attention to Pythagorean Winning Percentages, the current standings are another great example of why Run Differential is highly overrated:
1) Team with +164 Run Differential (3rd-best in AL) is currently not in a playoff spot
2) Team with -48 Run Differential is currently in an AL playoff spot
What should I disprove next?
FPG – Please disprove ANYTHING or EVERYTHING that “you know who” writes about!!! That shouldn’t be a tall task!!! hahahaha
BTW – Tonight TOR effectively got eliminated.
I still believe NY loses two or three to TB so WC1 is still on the table.
Good news – WAS only has one good hitter to avoid in Soto. Three wins and the Red Sox finish with 70 losses and are assured of a playoff spot if H2H with SEA is the first tie=breaker.
Bad news – Cora is still managing and starting the wrong batting order. Cora has done nothing to change the demeanor of the ball club despite everyone praising him for being this player whisperer. He’s not. Just a cheater and a bull crap artist.
So BOS needs it’s players to win despite Cora.
If NY opens with a win against TB the WC1 is all but gone. If BOS opens with a loss in WAS the WC2 will require help from LAA. The emotional swings this team has put Boston fans through is very much like the 86 year drought. We can all thank Bloom for this but to be fair Cora helped a lot.
Here is the real bummer. The team over-performed like in 2018. We all know what 2019 was like. Same manager making huge mistakes. Same manager setting the line-up incorrectly. Same manager playing favorites and not the best players. Same manager telling pitchers how they should pitch and creating arm issues. Same manager telling hitters how they should bulk up and increase their launch angle. Yep, the short-term future is bleak especially if the team fails to make the playoffs.
Red Sox fans deserve to have the team make the playoffs even if it’s just for one game after the stabbing in the heart they absorbed when Mookie was sent packing, and Price and Benny and Chavis and so on and so on.
If Cora puts the top 4 hitters first in the batting order and sits Iglesias and plays the best 9 the Red Sox have an excellent chance of sweeping WAS. If TB comes through like I expect them to BOS could still host the wild card game.
That’s a lot of ifs and it all starts with Cora doing a baseball savvy move so it’s highly unlikely to happen. For all you Cora supporters please note the lack of energy he has exhibited during the final week stretch drive, please note the horse crap line-ups, please note the mishandling of the pitching staff, please note the favoritism displayed playing Iglesias ahead of Verdugo, JD and Schwarber. I have said since the beginning managers NEVER deserve credit for wins but can deserve credit for loses. The two in BAL are on CORA. Pulling Sale was a huge mistake and three days of horse crap and illogical batting orders is the staple of Cora’s daily mistakes throughout the season..
CORA NEEDS TO GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
KD – I actually wrote that because of an obnoxious Jays fan who a month ago was arguing with me about how the Jays would definitely win WC1 and maybe even the division, and he used Pythag to try and support his belief. I told him the NYY had a potent lineup and that I wouldn’t be surprised if they get hot again and the Jays cool off again, but he didn’t listen. LOL
Of course that same Jays fan hasn’t been seen around here recently … I wonder why? BWAHAHAHA!
FPG – At this point, nothing would surprise me. I could see BOS and SEA losing two and TOR sweeping or TOR winning 1 against BAL like BOS just did and SEA sneaking in or I could even see Cora fixing the line-up and sweeping WAS.
WAIT… just saw tonight’s line-up. Not going to happen.
So with 3 games CORA refused to move the .200 OBP guy to 9th so his best hitters are not at the top of the batting order. He also ignores the fact that Devers is not hot and JD is clutch so JD should follow Bogey who should follow Schwarber. That line-up beats WAS but tonight’s is going to have to overcome Cora’s mistakes.
FYI… Inning one begins with a strike out by Hernandez as usual, Schwarber fouled out Bogaerts walked and Devers flied out. Inning two sees JD single to left field for the first hit batting 5th not 3rd. Then three straight outs by Renfroe, Dalbec and Vazquez. Inning 3 is a disaster since the pitcher hits so EROD strikes out, Hernandez goes 0 for 2 with a pop out then Schwarber walks and Bogaerts flies out. 3 innings with 3 base runners but no shot at scoring thanks to the bad batting order.
NOTE – The three base runners so far have been Schwarber, Bogey and JD. It’s no coincidence that I have continued to preach those three as the first three batters in the order.
YOU MUST BUNCH ON BASE GUYS TOGETHER TO WIN!!!
FIRE CORA!!!!!!! BEFORE THE SEASON ENDS and see if the team rallies from the excitement of getting a real manager.
FPG – Things not looking good in the WAS 4th. Soto was walked as he should be but the next two got singles to load the bases. This is a huge point in the game. The next few hitters may send BOS packing or give them the momentum they are lacking. E-ROD isn’t facing monster hitters so we’ll see how clutch he is. Mercer just struck out so Kieboom and Stevenson are left. Kieboom just fouled out to 1B so now Stephenson. He’s a good hitter so E-ROD can’t feel like he’s out of the woods yet. Ground out!!!
This could change the momentum tonight!!
FPG – Is Josh Rogers borderline Cy Young candidate? I looked him up and he did have an outing against MIA (one of the worst in baseball) where he shutout his opponent for 5 innings but juggernauts like CIN and PIT have gotten to him for 2 and 3 runs so I’m thinking the team not only has the wrong batting order but is COMPLETELY uninspired even after E-Rod got out of a huge jam.
It’s the sixth now and the good part of the order is up and Bogey gets a hit. Now Devers. Fly out to Right. JD then singles for the second time so he and Bogey have been on twice. Now the reason JD has lower numbers batting fifth!!! No protection!! Finally two runners in the same inning thanks to the big four and old mother Cora looks in his cabinet and it’s bare. Lack of talent caused by the GM finding utility players rather than talented players!!! Maybe, Renfroe can come through. He’s had a good year. Boom!! HR Renfroe. Chalk one up for Bloom. Let’s see if this is the catalyst for their hitting!! TB is beating NY and TOR is winning against BAL so if things stay as they are the race tightens up!!
KD – Love the realtime in-game analysis! You brought them good luck ;O)
Xander is the guy I worry about, I think he’s hiding an injury … maybe the wrist again? We probably won’t find out until after the season.
He’s just 3-for-25 with a laughable .334 OPS over the past 7 games, we need him to produce like he can.
KD – I like your positivity!!
And JD makes a SPECTACULAR throw to nail the runner at 3B!!!
Thank goodness JD is playing RF instead of Hunter!! So glad Cora put him there!!
KD – Not sure who in the lineup has a .200 OBP but the pitcher has to bat 9th unless his name is Ohtani.
And I agree with you that Joe Kerrigan should replace Cora. Heck, I’d rather have Bobby Valentine than Cora!
FPG – I looked it up yesterday. Kiki is barely over .200 OBP for Sept and he’s hit first nearly the whole month. Bad managing not knowing the numbers. Or favoritism which is obvious. Maybe we can tell Cora Schwarber is Latin so he’ll bat him first!!
I want to trade with Philly – Girardi and DD for Cora and Bloom and we’ll throw in Verdugo, Downs and Wong and we’ll take Bohm to play 3B.
KD – Oh okay, I didn’t realize you were referring to just September. LOL
Yeah there’s definitely favoritism, moreso with Cora’s buddy Vazquez. He is rated 21st in defense among all MLB catchers (min 300 IC) and yet he has CAUGHT THE MOST INNINGS of any catcher in MLB!!! In fact I heard Vazquez has caught the most games of any Red Sox catcher since Varitek way back in 2007.
So the logical questions:
1) Why is Vazquez being used more than every other catcher in MLB despite being so bad defensively and having a mediocre bat?
2) Why is Cora, known for excessively resting his position players and pitchers, overworking a poor performer in the most demanding, exhausting position on the field?
We’ve all seen the careless errors Vazquez makes. We saw him drop the ball on the transfer last week that led to the Judge gamewinning hit. We saw him fail to hold onto an easy foul tip last night. I do not trust him at all, either calling games or making the routine plays. He has a good arm, that’s it.
Your trade proposal brought back memories of the “trade” of Theo to the Cubs. We got robbed on that one, getting back only Chris Carpenter. Dude was horrendous for us!
Fever Pitch Guy25 mins ago
KD – Oh okay, I didn’t realize you were referring to just September. LOL
Yeah there’s definitely favoritism
===========================================
Once you get into smaller and smaller samples, you can’t devise an appropriate strategy. You’re concerned about the September stats, so why not be concerned about the more recent stats? Kike’s OPS over the past 14 days is .862, with an OBP of .385. The OBP is 2nd behind Schwarber. Kike and Schwarber should be an automatic 1/2 against a righty.
You can’t make an error on an exchange on a caught third strike, that was just a bad call.
Yes of course it was a bad call by West.
However if Vazquez hadn’t dropped the ball on the exchange, West never would have had the opportunity to make the bad call.
Py W/L is virtually flawless, but that does not make it flawless. Over the past ten years, excluding 2020, Py W/L predicted exact records 30x, and missed by > 9 games only 8 times. Even for 2021, the Py W/L is within 10% of your actual W/L 97% of the time. In 2019, it was within 10% 100%.
Even reducing your sensitivity to 5%, in 2021, Py would be right 60% of the time, and right 67% in 2019. For predictive purposes, there are few things more accurate. Even in TO’s case, they only missed by 8 games, and that’s because they went 3-9 in extra innings.
FPG – BTW TB owns NY, BOS, TOR and SEA so it doesn’t much matter who gets the WC win their time will be short in the playoffs BUT for now two more losses by NY really opens the door to many possibilities.
If Cora puts Schwarber back at lead off I bet he homers in his first at bat. If he follows him with Bogey, JD, Devers, Renfroe, Verdugo, Dalbec and Vazquez I think they will surely win. Don’t laugh but here is how I’d set the defense. Dalbec at 3B, Bogaerts at SS, Devers at 2B and Schwarber at 1B. JD in LF, Renfroe in CF and Verdugo in RF. The 8 best bats hit and they can’t be any worse than they’ve been on defense.!! Also, the shake=up might shake up the big bats. With the WAS pitchers they simply need to out hit them. Houck and others can team up to stop WAS on Saturday and then Sunday Sale can close the door. If NY loses on Sat and BOS wins BOS is the WC1 going into Sunday as I mentioned about a week ago. I’m telling you, TB owns all these teams so NY is in big trouble right now. IF TB sweeps and BOS and SEA sweep then BOS hosts SEA on Monday!!
Plus on Sunday night we get Brady back in BOS against the Pats!! What an exciting weekend!!!
SEA loses opening the door for BOS.
NYY – 69 losses
BOS – 70 losses
TOR – 71 losses
SEA – 71 losses
BOS controls their destiny. 2 wins guarantees a wild card birth and two wins and a Yankee loss assures the game is in BOS!!!
KD – I’ll ask you the same question I’ve asked others.
If both the Yanks and Red Sox lose today
or
If the Red Sox win today and the Yankees lose today
or
If both the Yanks and Red Sox win today
AND both Toronto and Seattle lose today (I know, not likely) …
Do you still have Sale pitch tomorrow?
That’s the fascinating question, do you use him to get home field or do you save him for a potential Play-In Game or Wild Card Game?
It’s kinda cool how the next few days might play out.
BTW – This is the first time I’ve noticed that neither starting pitcher in today’s game has ever faced any of the hitters on the opposing team. Let’s hope Cora goes with the same group of hitters as last night, although I wouldn’t mind Plawecki catching.
Yes. No doubt in my mind. I don’t want to get caught up the the play-in scrum. If we lose, then the rational for saving Sale disappears.
Yeah yesterday’s events have rendered my speculation meaningless. Sox can clinch WC1 with a win today, so it’s a no-brainer to start Sale. I’ve been saying for weeks if Sale is needed today to get WC1, then he needs to pitch. Now that we know that to be the case, it’s go time for him. Hopefully better results than his last start. Today’s opposing starter is making his ML debut, and he wasn’t very good in the minors, so SHOULD be a blowout in our favor.