The quality of the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class has been discussed for years at this point. We’re just a few weeks away from that group actually hitting the open market, with a handful of young stars at the top of the class offering shortstop-needy clubs plenty of options.
Stars at the Top of the Class
Carlos Correa (27 years old next April): A former first overall pick and top prospect, Correa has long been on a trajectory towards a free agent megadeal. He was in the big leagues by age 20 and immediately a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter, a true franchise shortstop. Correa has never had strikeout problems, has always drawn walks, and hits for power. He was dinged up a bit early in his career — leading to some whispers about his durability — but his only IL stint of the last two seasons has come for feeling COVID-like symptoms in July.
Correa only hit at a league average level during last year’s shortened season, but he’s put that behind him with a huge 2021. Over 640 plate appearances, he posted a .279/.366/.485 line (134 wRC+) with 26 home runs. After some mixed results on defense early in his career, he’s rated as one of the league’s best with the glove for the past few seasons. Correa’s an impact player on both sides of the ball, the #1 position player by Baseball Reference WAR this season (#8 by FanGraphs WAR). Because he got to the majors so quickly, Correa’s hitting free agency in advance of his age-27 season, so he’ll have a few prime years to market.
Corey Seager (27): As with Correa, Seager’s a former top prospect who starred from Day One. He’s been a decidedly above-average hitter throughout his career, posting four seasons with a wRC+ of 125 or above. There aren’t any nits to pick in Seager’s offensive profile, either. He’s a left-handed power bat who rarely strikes out and draws a fair amount of walks. Seager consistently places near the top of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact rate, and few hitters have been better over the past two years.
Seager fractured his right hand on a hit-by-pitch in May, costing him more than a month. That kept his counting stats down a bit this year, but on a rate basis, Seager was as good as ever. He hit .306/.394/.521 (147 wRC+) over 407 plate appearances. Going back to the start of 2020, he ranks eighth leaguewide in wRC+, and that’s without accounting for a massive playoff run last season that culminated in World Series MVP honors. Defensive metrics have generally pegged Seager as average or a bit below in recent seasons, but there aren’t many more impactful offensive players at any position around the league.
Marcus Semien (31): Semien spent the bulk of this season manning second base for the Blue Jays in deference to Bo Bichette. He was a shortstop up until this year, and he rated as one of the game’s premier defenders at the keystone in 2021. Teams might be split on where they prefer Semien, but it seems likely there’ll be at least a few who’d consider moving him back to shortstop depending upon their current roster situation.
Semien led MLB with 724 plate appearances, and he hit a whopping .265/.334/.538. He popped 45 home runs, the fourth-highest total in the league, and stole fifteen bags. Semien completely regained his peak offensive form after an average 2020, and he took to his new position with ease. Semien’s age will keep him from landing the length or total guarantee of the market’s younger stars, but he’s wrapping up his second elite season in the past three years and leads all position players in FanGraphs WAR since the start of 2019. There’s no doubt at this point Semien’s an elite player, and a five or six-year deal that easily eclipses $100MM should be on the table with how well he’s performed.
Trevor Story (29): It wasn’t a banner year for Story, who started off slowly at the plate. He turned things around a bit in the second half, but his overall .251/.329/.471 line was his worst since 2017. Story’s had fairly dramatic home-road splits, at least a moderate concern for a player in Colorado. Most of the damage he did this season came against left-handed pitching, as Story was a well below-average hitter (.234/.318/.417) against righties.
It’s clearly not the ideal time for Story to hit the market for the first time, but he’ll still have plenty of points in his favor. None of his batted ball metrics were much changed from recent seasons. Once one of the game’s highest-strikeout hitters, Story has consistently cut down on the swing-and-miss as he’s gotten more experience and now only punches out at a league average rate. He was plagued by a career-low .293 batting average on balls in play, which interested teams will likely count on bouncing back moving forward. And Story typically rates as one of the game’s best defensive shortstops (although metrics were more divided on his performance this year). Even in a relative “down” season, Story was worth around three-to-four wins above replacement, and he’s shown the ability to be a true impact player in prior years.
Javier Báez (29): Báez is one of the game’s toughest players to evaluate on the heels of an up-and-down couple of seasons. He had a disastrous 2020 with the Cubs and started slowly again in 2021. But he started to heat up in July, and he only got better after a deadline day trade to the Mets, hitting .299/.371/.515 over 186 plate appearances in Queens.
There are some obvious areas of concern in Báez’s profile. Of the 210 hitters with 500+ plate appearances since the start of 2020, nobody has swung and missed more. Only Salvador Pérez and José Iglesias have chased more pitches outside the strike zone. And what Báez did this season is somewhat unprecedented; he’s the only player (min. 500 PA) to have an above-average hitting season while striking out as often and walking as infrequently as he did this year.
Yet Báez has always had something of an alarming approach, and he’s continued to thrive in spite of it. He hits for power, runs the bases well and is regarded as an excellent defensive infielder. Aside from the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Báez has been a well above-average performer since 2018, and he’s one of the sport’s most entertaining and popular players. Unlike with the other top of the market shortstops, signing Báez wouldn’t cost a team draft pick compensation. The midseason trade makes him ineligible to be tagged with a qualifying offer.
Chris Taylor (31): Taylor hasn’t played a whole lot of shortstop over the past couple seasons, but he’s still capable of manning the position as needed. He’s moved all over the diamond for the Dodgers, spending the bulk of this season in center field and at second base.
Taylor has been a bit unheralded on a Dodgers’ roster loaded with superstars (at least until his heroics in this week’s Wild Card game), but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter with passable defensive marks virtually everywhere he plays. He strikes out a fair amount, but he also hits for power, walks and consistently runs high batting averages on balls in play. His bat cooled off in the second half after a scorching start to the season, but Taylor’s track record and versatility make him a likely qualifying offer recipient and candidate to land a strong three or four-year contract. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently broke down Taylor’s impending free agency at greater length.
Potential Regulars
Freddy Galvis (32): Galvis has carved out a solid career as a glove-first player who offers consistently below-average but passable offense. He’s a switch-hitter with some power who generally puts the ball in play. Galvis doesn’t walk much, leading to low on-base percentages, and his defensive marks have dipped a bit in recent seasons. Teams aren’t going to view Galvis as an impact addition, but he consistently does enough on both sides of the ball to be a regular who chips in one-to-two wins above replacement per season.
Andrelton Simmons (32): Simmons has a strong case as the best defensive infielder of his generation. He posts eye-popping Defensive Runs Saved totals year in and year out, with highlight reel plays a frequent occurrence. At his best, Simmons combined that incredible glovework with league average offense, driven by an ability to seemingly never strike out. That offense has fallen off dramatically over the past three seasons, though, and Simmons hit only .223/.283/.274 over 451 plate appearances with the Twins this year. He might have a hard time landing an everyday job coming off such a poor showing at the plate, but even as he’s entered his 30’s, Simmons remains one of the sport’s most electrifying and valuable defenders.
José Iglesias (32): Iglesias never quite matched up to Simmons, but he’s offered a broadly similar profile. A high-contact hitter with an elite glove, Iglesias has had his share of productive seasons. He posted a huge, albeit BABIP-inflated, shortened 2020 season, but his offense dipped back to its typical levels (.271/.309/.391) this year. Were Iglesias still an elite defender, that’d be more than enough to make him a productive regular. But his defensive numbers bizarrely plummeted, with Iglesias rating as a league-worst 21 runs below average at shortstop according to DRS. That’ll put a damper on his market, but a team that believes in his ability to bounce back from those uncharacteristic struggles might still give him an opportunity at an everyday job.
Jonathan Villar (30): Villar had a nice season with the Mets, bouncing back from a disappointing 2020 to hit .249/.322/.416. That’s slightly above-average hitting, and the former stolen base champ continues to provide additional value on the basepaths. Villar’s not a great defender anywhere but he’s capable of playing throughout the infield and has a bit of outfield experience. It’s possible he’s done enough this year to earn an everyday job somewhere, although it seems likelier first-division clubs would see him as a high-end insurance option off the bench.
Utility Types
Leury García (31): García has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. García doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.
Marwin González (33): González hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He popped three homers in 36 plate appearances since re-signing with Houston, but he only posted a .222 OBP in his second stint as an Astro. That’s two consecutive miserable seasons for González, who followed up an outstanding 2017 campaign with back-to-back league average seasons before dropping off substantially since the start of 2020.
Andrew Romine (36): Romine saw a decent amount of action with the Tigers between 2014-17, bouncing all around the diamond in a reserve capacity. He’s never offered much at the plate, though, and he only tallied four combined plate appearances between 2019-20 before returning for a 26-game stint with the Cubs this year.
Prior installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base
Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Swanson becomes available after another early postseason exit. Disappointing season but i liked him
Crossing my fingers Albies gets traded and the Braves pick up Seager. But that will never happen.
Maybe even go after Devers and trade Riley to the Sox.
Why would the Red Sox trade Devers for Riley? Devers is developing into a superstar while Riley has had one good season.
And with that incredibly team friendly contract the Braves are not trading Albies unless someone is willing to empty their farm system to get him.
Rsox, I actually agree with you on Riley. I guess I’m just looking too hopeful the Braves go after Devers. Riley will likely be a tier-2 player for the rest of his career.
As for Albies, I just want him out. But yes, his contract makes him valuable to a cheap team like the Braves.
Guess, they will keep settling for division flags unless the Phils and Mets decide they want to win.
Why do you want to get rid of a 4+ WAR player who is above average offensively, defensively, and on the base paths and is vastly underpaid?
man, if Albies statistically is considered above average then it just goes to show you how weak 2nd is in the entire sport.
You are a dog turd of a human.
He’s above average for the league. Not just 2nd.
that makes it worse. Albies is not a good hitter.
What makes him bad? The .802 career OPS? The 20+ homers? The career .273 average?
His lack of discipline. His lack of ability to get on base, which eliminates his base-running/speed skillset. His homerun approach every at-bat. Definitely, not the guy I want hitting with the game on the line.
He doesn’t walk enough or bunt enough for him @Steve Nebraska. Ignore the reduce k rate, improved usage of the oppo field, increase EV, increase Fb%. He’s bad because he doesn’t get on base in order to use his speed (also ignore those xbh)
If he can’t do everything great he is bad.
Don’t mind @DontComeBackFreeman. He’s just stupid. He was pissed off when the Braves didn’t sign MadBum and also pissed when they didn’t trade 6.1 WAR Riley. If the Braves followed any of his advice they would be a last place team like Arizona is. He gets more mad about the Braves winning and not making the moves he wants more than anything. The thing that upsets him the most is when he says the Braves should do something (like sign MadBum) and they don’t and it ends up looking good because MadBum is terrible. This guy’s name used to be MadBumEqualsNLCS. He’s the Braves version of Metsfan22. Like I said. Don’t mind him. He’s just stupid.
Dude was a magnificent run producer with solid defense at the keystone all year? I’m sure if braves fans aren’t happy with him there are fans of 29 other teams that would be… especially for less than 5 mil a year
Albies? .310 OBP, .325 career. Not great, but not that bad. His power more than makes up for it. Slightly above league average hitter overall, nothing wrong with that.
He’s 24…
Baseball, do you watch it??
@Rsox the guy you replied to is an absolute moron and a troll. If you see his posts in the future, just ignore him. He constantly changes his name, but you can tell it’s the same person by the ridiculous content of his comments and also the same ridiculous name.
Some of his prior names include “AcunaIsOverrated” “NoBumgarterEqualsNoNLDS”
I forgot about the Acuna is overrated. So the Braves need to get rid of Albies, Acuna, and Riley according to him. But, he likes Swanson (for some reason?) and thinks Freeman shouldn’t sign because he too good for them. And they should get Devers.
Imagine liking a team and wanting to gut it. Also, imagine liking Dansby Swanson more than Albies, Acuna, and Riley.
Haha, I never said to trade Acuna.
Albies and Riley can go….Duvall can go too.
Freeman is not too good for them though? He can get more money from another team and likely win a ring with them. It will not happen in ATL.
What do you like about Dansby Swanson? Out of Albies, Acuna, Riley, and Swanson you never mention him. When Dansby is by far the worst of the bunch, why do you never speak ill of him?
My opinion of him has changed a lot this year. He is uncharacteristically striking out so much this season. Probably because he wants to be a 30 homerun guy now.
What I liked about Swanson before was his underrated defense and his ability to get big hits when they mattered. His offensive game has sunk though so trading him now is probably a thought. I doubt they will extend him.
Nope, sorry, big hits and defense are both things Ozzie has always done along with his speed and power. What else you got?
Gotta love those Debbie Downer fans lol.
@SoCalBrave——he’s also the kind of guy that will be front row at a championship parade and be the first in line at the store to get his champs t-shirt.
As a Cub fan I had to endure all the idiots that wanted to run Bryant, Baez, etc out of town after the championship because they only were 95% perfect playing the game.
These are the kinds of guys that you want to get in a high stakes poker game and let them have their emotions take over when something negative happens and pick their pockets and add to their miserable outlook on life.
Ah.
He is advocating for the old; Revenge Trade/DFA. A real fan favorite. Seeing a bit of that with the Yankee fellas the last couple days.
Shows up as “cut this guy!” in football.
It doesn’t matter if it makes your team worse. Because that’s not really the point, @Mohlers.
Marcus Semien to the Mariners. They have the most $$ to spend. Get it done Jerry!
Yes, would be the perfect 2B for the Ms and move Toro to 3B.
RSox- Devers defense is terrible by all metrics. He’s consistently at the bottom. Check out Fielding Bible for a good break down.
Offensively, Devers is really good. Riley is good on both O and D.
I think Riley’s defense appears better than it is because Freddie Freeman’ fielding is so good.
@RSox Devers can hit for sure, but he can’t field. So in my book, he isn’t quite a Superstar
Literally everything you said would surprise me.
Just stop.
It would surprise me if you ever said anything that is reality based instead of some delusional thought that would never happen in real life.
Guy is complaining about the best infield in the game and literally wants the braves to either trade them all or not resign them. Talk about delusional.
same “best” infield that got shut down today by a mediocre start by Corbin? Guess, I missed it. Maybe this is just a dream and the Braves did not lose another postseason game.
Is this your best argument? Not hitting well in one game against one of the best pitchers in the league?
Last time I checked, if you want to win in the postseason, you have to beat pitchers that are tops in the league. What we saw today has pretty much been the story of their offense all season – they can’t hit with men on unless it is a home run. That is a recipe for disaster against top pitchers in the league.
MeDiOcRe
6 scoreless innings of 5 total runners
Did you watch the game? He was not effective at all. His slider was bad and his command wasn’t on point. Relative to his ability, he was mediocre and hittable. If the Braves approached this game looking to get hits against a guy who gave up only 7 homers all season, they would have won the game.
A mediocre start by Corbin?! Lol. Do you ever put the tiniest bit of thought into what you say, or do you just type? It’s a rhetorical question. We ALL know the answer.
How about instead of ranting and raving about how terrible the Braves IF is you try to come to grips with the fact that this is the playoffs and every team in it is good? Only one team will win a WS.
The Braves don’t need any of these SS… or a 2B… or a 3B
It wouldn’t surprise me if the team did exactly what you wanted and still lost. You would make up some other stupid narrative and say those players suck now too. Or we could just imagine where the braves would be with Madbum. Missing the playoffs and stuck with a god awful contract. Just be quite and cheer and boo when everyone else does so you don’t look like a fool anymore.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if the team did exactly what you wanted and still lost”
You are right. As I said before, Braves will never win in the postseason. It is the Braves way. They can put up the best team in the league, and will still lose.
I have an answer for you regarding Bum. Still without a ring with him or not. So does it matter? It not like the Braves did anything with the money they saved or won anything since.
Not very nice to say of you, but I still guarantee my death will come before the Braves win a WS.
What are you?! Why do you exist? Do you solely exist by feeding on a lack of enjoyment? WHY DO YOU EXIST?!
Just find a team you like, and watch their games.
Haha, some of you are so angry with my opinions like I’m wishing death upon the players. You ppl get so defensive like I’m wishing harm to Albies or another player. Whether you want to believe it or not, the Braves are mediocre in the postseason. No useless advanced stat can prove this otherwise.
Whoa! You’re telling me I didn’t sit through a decade and half of division championships and only one World Series? We know the Braves don’t deliver in the postseason, but fans still like to see the bright side. You aren’t telling us anything new, you are just coming up with terrible solutions.
By your logic every team is mediocre in the playoffs. I still don’t think you get this simple concept. Only one team wins the World Series. And if you only consider it a successful season if the team wins it all then you can’t be helped. Too dumb to argue with. It’s too bad you aren’t trolling I could actually give you credit for something.
The Braves are different. When you make the postseason every year and then are out in the first round every time, then there is a fundamental problem somewhere….management, players, or some combination of it.
Ohhhh. I get it, sorry for insulting you on multiple threads.
You have a “Yankees complex” for the Braves. The Braves do not have the “expectation of winning” like the Yankees or Dodgers. Most of the time its just fun to be invited.
Yeah, he definitely has “screams at parents for buying him a Rolls Royce instead of a Lamborghini” vibe.
I’m sorry but didn’t they just make it through two rounds last year only to come up short in the NLCS? Now however yes you are right in that they did have a run of winning divisions only to get bounced early. You do make some points that I somewhat agree with- Ozzie and all the others could use more of a contact oriented approach with 2 strikes. 2 inches of choke on the bat and cut down on the swing a bit and see what happens making more contact. I think Dansby this yr is about what we can expect moving forward. Riley if he continues with what he gave us is setting himself up for a really nice career. You do realize Riley had a Chipper-esque season this year right?
Oh and yes I WAS at the game yesterday in section 437 and there were only two (2) balls hit hard, one by each side. Everything else was not squared up real well for either side, so guess what that’s playoff baseball and today’s game could be the same type of game with the Braves coming out on top. So take a break and breathe before you start with all this nonsense everyday.
Beating the Marlins and Reds does not count in a 60 game season.
Playoff series wins count whether or not you feel a shortened season is worthy or not. Every team out there played 60 last yr and there was a WS winner. So the teams that made the playoffs last season played well enough to get there and go for it. So your narrative doesn’t really hold water. So what are going to say if the Braves roll on and win it all? You going to complain because on paper they’re not the strongest team?
I mean if you want to celebrate beating the Marlins and Reds in a season where those two teams wouldn’t make it otherwise, go right ahead. The Dodgers were the best team last season so I’m not discrediting them, but the Braves survived from sheer competition level rather than team composition. The fact that they performed worse all year this year reinforces that fact. Albeit, poor bullpen construction was another reason.
No one is celebrating anything. It’s just being pointed out that the Braves have had success, which is undeniable.
Never mind, you are right. Guess last season’s “success” excuses them from another first-round exit this season.
He’s as fumb as he is old Iver
Your just dumb
You’re*
Ugh stop feeding the troll, people.
I don’t understand the stop feeding the trolls comment. We all know he’s a troll. Sometimes its fun to just punch at an easy target. The only person who needs to stop is you reading the comments.
please god, just chris taylor
Can play him at SS or in CF depending on which sucks more.
I still imagine how good they could have been had they signed Semien instead of Didi, which was their original plan.
I’m lost on the infatuation with Semien at SS. He’s one of four players with defense worse than Gleyber Torres there! See MLB’s Statcast OOA for easy reference.
Yes, his offense is top-tier this year, but if he regresses, he’s not worth it at all.
Didi was horrendous at shortstop this year and he had no bat either.
Easily the deepest position in free agency. But as has been the case the past several years there are more SS available than jobs. It will be interesting to see who comes off the board first
Almost any team in the league could use any of the top guys.
No worries about there not being enough jobs. Teams will make a job for Correa, Seager and Semien.
It will be whoever is not represented by Scott Boras.
Joe, what do you think the Yankees would do, and then should do, about SS?
The biggest issue here is all these guys will want Lindor money and it won’t be happening. It will stall the market.
Carlos Correa will get Lindor money and he will deserve every penny. Lindor was always overrated. The Mets will regret the signing after another bad season next year. Correa will go to the Phils.
Yeah Correa ain’t get Lindor money but your used to always being wrong.
If Correa doesn’t get Lindor money it’ll make that contract look even worse for the Mets.
It will be interesting to see what happens here. It really is difficult to predict. We will have a glut of top SS’s available. Glut is not really the correct word, but it’s rare to have this many top SS’s available all at once, so it’s fair to wonder if that will help drive market prices, or suppress market prices. Every top SS on the market means there’s an opening on a team that just had a top SS. Maybe the Astros let Correa leave, but replace him with Semien on a shorter and cheaper deal? I don’t think that will happen at all, but using that to illustrate that this SS market will be fluid,
Predicting this market won’t be easy, and I’m often wrong, although I did peg the Lindor deal at 10/345, so only a $4MM “miss” there! Lindor set the top of the market driven by a variety of circumstances beneficial to Lindor. He was traded for real talent to a big-market team with a new and very wealthy owner who wanted to make a statement that things were changing. Lindor and his agent were able to use that to their advantage. The Mets and Cohen would have to pay market price, if not a premium, to buy out Lindor’s free-agent rights. Also, lurking in the background was the other team in NY. It’s long been rumored that the Yankees wanted Lindor and that Lindor wanted the Yankees. No way Cohen could risk giving up talent, letting Lindor cut his teeth in NY playing for the Mets, only to have him shift across town the following season to wear pinstripes. PR disaster! Lindor and his agent knew all this, so they leveraged it into a market-setting deal. A 10/341, or even an 11/363 if you factor in the 2021 contract.
Are any of the SS’s entering free agency going to beat that? It won’t be easy. I wouldn’t bet against it, but I’m not convinced. Lindor was always regarded at the top because he was elite on both sides of the ball, he was very durable, he was young, and marketing wise appealing. Correa and Seager both had (have?) health and durability questions attached. Baez has a reputation as a free swinger. Semien was older and had a murky hitting profile, although one he did answer this year. Next, add in that the Mets and their money are probably out of play on this. Well, most likely. They could sign one to play 3B and then make trades, but that will be expensive, and for all of Cohen’s money, he will still have to operate within the MLB CBA structure. He can blow it out for a year or two as the Dodgers have, but he’ll have to retreat. The Red Sox have exceeded it, but then retreat. The Yankees luxury tax payroll hasn’t moved measurably in 16 years. It’s actually lower that it was in 2005, despite skyrocketing profits. So if the Mets are out of play, and the Dodgers have shielded themselves by acquiring Trea Turner, and the Red Sox are out of play because they have Xander and Devers, and the Cubs are out of play as they rebuild, and the White Sox are out of play because they have a top SS in Anderson, then it’s fair to wonder who will drive the price higher for these players? The Phillies might be in play. The Angels. But are they enough to set skyrocket prices when there’s multiple choices?
So which team(s) will drive the market? Ok, the 800-pound gorilla I haven’t mentioned. The Yankees, but I’m not convinced. It’s fair to say that the agents for the top SS’s all had their eyes on both NY teams starting in the spring. First to see what the Mets would do with Lindor and if he signed a massive deal setting the market (check). Then to see if Gleyber Torres got moved off of SS with the Yankees (check). That seemingly sets the market for the 800-pound gorilla to enter the room, but I’m not convinced the Yankees are diving into the deep end of this pool, to mix my metaphors. Two of their top three prospects are SS’s, and very good ones as they are global top prospects, one in the top 20 and the other in top 50 and rising. One or both could be within a season of debuting. If you’re in the Yankees situation, and you have two options that will cost you $600K a year as opposed to $35M a year, what are you going to do? Especially as they know they have to pay the big man in RF a lot of money within a year unless they plan to let him leave in free agency as they did with Cano. Judge is not Cano. They wanted Cano to leave (makes a lot of sense in retrospect), they don’t want Judge to leave.
So that’s a lot of words to basically say I don’t think this SS class will Lindor money because I don’t see a dominant team that is going to drive the prices up for all of them. Add in the potential work stoppage, and most of the touted SS class may come up a little short financially compared to Lindor. My two cents. Maybe three.
I mean, I see what you’re saying, and you are not incorrect, but the Mets should never have given Lindor that monster of a contract. That he was seen as the best SS of the class was a fan mistake, not one an owner or scouting department has the luxury to make. He was signed for all the reasons you state, such as not wanting to lose out to the Yankees. Again, the type nonsense fans whine about, ownership is supposed to be smarter, more cool headed. It’s a disaster of a contract and should never have been signed. That another team might get Correa, a vastly better player, for less only accentuates that.
Solid take on the situation. I do think you have to at least consider the Yankees quick end from the postseason in how they will react. As I noted in the Simmons thread, the Yankees may monitor the high-end of the SS market. If prices are weak for the reasons you stated, they may opt to jump in. Also, if they sign Correa or a Seager or a Story or a Semien doesn’t necessarily block Volpe and/or Peraza. That will be three players for three positions. The SS they sign could shift to 3B, while the two prospects could take over at SS and 2B. LeMahieu is not an issue here. He’s kind of a plug-and-play guy, which is why the Yankees signed him. He could take over at 2B or 3B or 1B next season depending how other pieces fall out, and eventually he can slide into the all-purpose, multi-positional player that they originally envisioned when they signed him. Gleyber is the one player who might get squeezed out, but that’s still a year or two off during which they can assess him. He had a nice rebound the last 2 1/2 months of the year at the plate, something I’m not sure even Yankee fans realized.
Cosmo, I don’t disagree. I wasn’t coming down on the side of the contract or against it. Just giving my perspective on how I think it happened and what fallout there will be on the overall SS market. While I’m a fan of the other team in town, I do think Lindor has a couple good years in him similar to what we saw in Cleveland. Took some time to adjust to the new team, but he was trending back up. His glove remains top notch. I think the real issue with the contract will come five or so years down the line. The second issue is will it impact the Mets ability to make other moves as they approach the luxury tax threshold. As much money as Cohen has, he has to operate within the CBA. His biggest contribution should be in spending to expand the minors, analytics and scouting, which will feed the majors. Obviously, still needs to get the correct leader in place to help him more effectively spend his money!
RobM, yes. The abrupt end in the WC could cause a reassessment. The Yankees should be building to win the division, not bank on a WC run. Hal has twice pulled the team back under the luxury tax threshold during a championship window the last four years. That’s a failure on him.
lordd99, I basically agree with you as well. But I think Lindor’s best years are behind him. He’s a 4 WAR player. He’ll never reach the 7 WAR of his prime again.
Spot on comment!
Tiger fans are salivating at the prospect of Correa possibly coming to Detroit, having played for AJ Hinch in Houston. Sure, I’d like that too, but have a feeling the money Correa will demand will likely price him out of the Tigers range. Also have to think there is more value for the Tigers a bit down the line in someone like Taylor or Story.
Also have a feeling that Correa is going to lead this market overall and his signing will be the one everyone waits on.
hopefully, the angels are not in on him.
Yeah, because the Angels are so well known for making sound investments.
When Ohtani wins MVP, that will be the third Angel free agent to win MVP, Yeah, they have done horribly.
When the Angels make baseball moves, they do pretty good.
The Tigers have the money. But, not sure they are willing to spend it on a SS with Kreidler waiting in the wings. This is actually poor timing because I don’t see them doing a long term deal for a SS just yet..
I don’t know a lot about the SS’s on this list. But, going strictly by the authors evaluations, I thought Simmons might be a good choice.
Then I read he was a little cray cray….
I prefer Tigers go after Seager or Semien. Maybe bring in Kyle Seager also to lure Corey. If not, grab Iggy or Galvis and then see what Kriedler can do.
The odds the Tigers sign Correa are better than you think, but always take “the field” over any one team besides the incumbent. Except for the Yankees, the top performing teams that are willing to spend already have good or excellent shortstops. Then you dip to the next tier down like the Mariners, Phillies, and Angels who could use a shortstop and are willing to spend. Phillies have Bryson Stott in the wings and may not be as aggressive.
I could see Seager going to the Yankees with the Tigers, M’s and Angels duking it out for Correa. The Tigers probably have the short stack at the table.
I’d be in on Taylor, but Story only as a value deal. Semien might be the best match for the Tigers, especially if you think Kriedler might stick.
You are not taking into account the existing payrolls of the teams you are mentioning. The Yankees have $100MM locked up in 4 players for the next 3 yrs. They sign another $20M+ multi year contract then there is nothing left for Judge when he wants his. They were only a couple million shy of the luxury tax threshold this year so there is not room for a big FA. They’ll likely end up Simmons or Iggy for their defense. Philly has the same issue. They have $75MM tied up in 3 players over the next 4 yrs. They aren’t adding a 4th when they have a number of holes to fill. Also, DD is very good managing the cap (when the owner doesn’t insist otherwise). Same for the Angels, they are going to be paying Trout & Rendon $70MM per year thru 2026 and need to save room for Ohtani. They also need to add a. Starting pitcher. They aren’t going to add another big contract for an SS. The Mariners have plenty of room but also have a JP Crawford whose young, cheap and posted a 3.8bWAR this year, 2nd highest on the team. Not sure that’s a place to invest. Tigers have Miggy’s $32MM & Schoop’s $15MM for the next 2 years and then they are clear. Their top SS prospect (Kreisler) grades out a 45 and all of their top prospects will be with the MLB team next year. They have room for a big contract, especially one that is back loaded, and a real need. They can add a big contract and still keep the payroll under $125MM, which is small by historical Tiger standards.
I could see the Tigers trading for a SS from a team with excess, like TB or SD. Then letting Kreidler compete for the spot. I see their money going towards pitching.
Why would they spend big on FA pitching when that is the strength of their farm system? Don’t disagree on trading for an SS if the FA market doesn’t work out, but remember that Kreidler grades out as. 45, which would be a below average player. He’s had a nice season, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll be the long term answer. Lastly, targeting an FA SS would be another reason the Tigers passed on Meyer in the draft.
If Al Avila has his stuff together,.he would be targering Abrams and Luciano instead of wasting Illich money selling KoolAid.
I’d much rather have Seager than Correa given you probably have to give both guys at least 6 year contracts.
Seager fits nice on most any club,however his durability is what will worry alot of clubs to shy away,but boy I would love for him and his brother to come to queens.
Leury Garcia? Would have been nice if he caught a line drive today.
I’d rather the Tigers go after Leury Garcia if any on that list. He can play multiple positions. The Tigers are not just one or two players or superstars away from contending. They need a MLB caliber SS not a salary restricting veteran.
You already have Leury Garcia, his name is Niko Goodrum, or Harold Castro. Last player they need to sign is a multi-position infielder. They have too many of those already.
I would stay the hell away from Javy Baez, I don’t believe that he will age well as a player. Not that Baez productivity is great by any means, I can see him declining at a early age. Not worth big $$$$
Jonathan Villar turns into an elite hitter when batting leadoff. He’s going to be an interesting buy-low option this off-season because of that and his versatility.
Turns elite when hitting lead off? What causation are you suggesting? How does he become better like that?
The Mets curse is a brick and he’s drownin’ slowly.
Villar career leading off: .264/.413/.748. Not alot of walks an almost 4-1 strikeout to walk rate. 141 stolen bases in the day and age of speed not being utilized isn’t bad.
I wouldn’t say he is “elite” but he’s not terrible either
So you buy into the idea that he’s a different hitter according to where he hits in the lineup? Makes no sense.
Some players hit better in certain spots in the lineup. Mookie Betts hits great in the leadoff spot. When Cora had Mookie hitting second and Benintendi hitting leadoff Mookie struggled. Some players are comfortable in certain spots. You wouldn’t hit Rickey Henderson 5th or 6th in the lineup would you?
What is the causation? Henderson hits stop the lineup cuz he’s awesome. Are you suggesting his talent would go down if he batted 5th? That’s not how it works.
Different spots in the lineup require a different approach. If you are hitting leadoff your job is to be a table setter. If you are hitting 3,4,5 you are expected to be a run producer. 8 or 9 you probably don’t hit much at all
Crane needs to do whatever it takes to retain Correa. Lifetime contract, whatever. Get it done.
and still cheat again!
Curious what Baez ends up. My guess is he ends up with a 3 yr deal and not a huge market. At 3 yrs, he still will provide a ton of value. I actually think it’s pretty amazing he does as well as he does hitting w the worst approach in the game.
Tigers definitely signing one ss. Correa would be a perfect fit but think Yankees makes a ton of sense.
Yankees should only consider Seager because he’s left handed. Story should goto the Rangers. Correa should stay put not sure how many teams breaking the bank to a cheater. Someone mentioned Red Sox trading Devers if they traded away Betts anything is possible.
The someone who mentioned trading Devers seems not to know much about the sport.
Betts was traded because the Red Sox knew they were both heading into a rebuild period, they weren’t sure they could hold Betts, and they needed to reset the luxury tax threshold. Timing on Devers is very different. The Red Sox are now ascending again, they’ve reset the luxury tax, and they likely have a much stronger chance of signing Devers.
No way Devers gets traded anytime soon. He an integral part of the Sox order and pretty clutch.
I agree with you on Correa, NYYfan, and I believe the Yankees would love Seager. I also believe they will not pay what it takes to get him. IF they get a FA SS, I think they will go cheaper with Story, Semien (because he won’t get the years), or Baez (which makes me cringe now).
Or, they may cheap out (likely) and get Freddy Galvis’ elite bat.
signing a cheater, cole by the yanks was low!
Huh? Cheater, Col? What the hell are you talking about? The sticky stuff everyone was using? Or the Cheating Astros that cheated while hitting?
Way to dance!
Yankee clipper, people are nuts. They have no idea what the definition of cheating is. Cheating is gaining an unfair advantage, like greenies of the 60 and 70s, no one thought using a substance to get a better grip on the baseball was cheating.
Today both are considered cheating.
“The sticky stuff everyone was using?”
Or the stealing signs that the Astros were taught from recent Yankee mainstay Carlos Beltran? Wonder where he learned it? Let us know how that sealed letter thing turns out.
Where does the money to sign Judge come from if they sign Seager?? Add this contract to Cole, Stanton, LeMahieu, and Hicks and the Yankees would be paying Judge’s contract out twice, once to him and again to the MLB in luxury tax. That’s why the Red Sox traded Mooky. Not because they wanted to but because they couldn’t afford to pay him with the luxury tax.
Seager scares the crap out of me. I’ve seen him at the plate. He’s an aggressive hit-his-way-on-base type. His skills won’t age well and with Boras, any contract he gets will enter his decline years. Plus, his injury history gives me Jacoby flashbacks.
I’m very curious where Baez ends up as well. Tons of big names ahead of him. A team is going to get him fairly cheaply. If the Astro’s don’t sign Correa, he might end up there.
No way Baez ends up in Houston.
If the Astros don’t resign Correa they let Jeremy Pena and Pedro Leon battle it out for the spot along with MAYBE a cheap older veteran.
MAYBE they give Semien or another veteran a 2-4 year deal but only Correa will possibly get 5+ from the Astros
@mils100
Don’t be too surprised if the Tigers don’t sign one of them. With Kreidler already in AAA, they have options if the contracts get out of hand.
Chris Taylor would be a good replacement for Brett Gardner, whose team buyout the Yankees should exercise. Taylor has been a plus defender in the corner outfield postions and at second base for years, but I wouldn’t consider him a long-term starting shortstop candidate. However, if they wanted a stop-gap shortstop until Volpe or Peraza is brought up, they could do a lot worse than signing Taylor to fill the gap for a season before shifting him primarily to the outfield. But I guess the foolish contract to Hicks will preclude spending to get Taylor, a much better player and a year younger.
Don’t the Yankees still have hicks for center? Taylor is so useful he is a good signing for every team. I wouldn’t put it past ny to get 2 of these guys and have one at 3rd and trade Torres for an arm. Thinking they will be really aggressive this year.
Mr. Person: I agree with you, and he can fill in anywhere. I don’t think the LAD will let him go without a fight but we will see. I bekieve they’re going to replace him with Lux, ultimately, but Lux’s bat hasn’t quite come around yet.
Who are you going to replace freeman, Riley, and Albies with? Who is better and how are you going to acquire them?
Stop feeding the troll, people. You’re only giving him oxygen.
Anthony Franco @ MLBTR: Can you follow this up with a prediction on where these guys will end up and your predicted contract for each?
You can couple that with a poll as well, if you desire.
Maybe the Cardinals can unload DeJong and sign a top SS!!
Zero chance of this. They’re not selling low on DeJong and they have Sosa there too. They’re not wasting off-season focus at SS.
Seager will be a yankee next year
Just what they need a short stop hitting.160
H means Corey, not Kyle!
Supposedly Story played the entire year with an injured shoulder and it looks like Baez was drawing more walks as a Met.
I’m so excited to see which injury prone SS the Angels will overpay for!
Good morning all.. As a Phillies Phan, I wonder how Dombrowski looks at this. Clearly he wants a better option at short. But, he also seems more intent on getting a middle of the order bat to pair with Harper and Hoskins. If it was me, I might keep a really well liked Freddy Galvis. He’ll hit around .240 and give you very good defense.
I spent my whole life as a Phan hating the DH. Now, I think it’s time has come.
The Phillies have the cash to spend big again on a FA but I don’t think that will happen. Too many holes.
Teams really can’t afford more than 3 huge contracts because of the luxury tax. You have to field a 40 man team under that cap, with benefits, so spending 1/2 on 4 players doesn’t make sense. DD ended up doing that in Boston and it got him fired, primarily because Price didn’t work and Sale got injured.
The Phillies already have $142MM committed for 2023, so I don’t see how they have much cash to spend. Maybe in 2023, but not this off season.
Okay, so I agree..but do not kid yourself..the Phillies have deep pockets.. I just agree it doesn’t make sense to lock your money up on just one player all the while you have so much more you need to do..It’s why I think they would be smart to just resign Freddy Galvis..
Red Sox: Sign Correa, Shift Bogaerts to 3B, Shift Devers to DH, Trade Martinez for pitching. Add more pitching where available. Defense greatly improved, Top 3 hitting lineup in baseball.
Boston’s already on the hook for $120MM for 6 players, including the $16MM they are paying LA for Price. They need to field a team and stay under the luxury tax cap. JD is great, but a DH has limited trade value and he seems to really add a spark to that lineup. Maybe in 2023, but it is unlikely the Red Sox add a big FA next year.
Why move Bogaerts to 3B? Why not Correa? Bogaerts is a good SS. And what makes everyone think Devers would produce as a DH at his young age coming off the field might actually hurt his offensive production, not help it
The Rangers will bid against themselves and sign either of the two biggest impending disasters: Baez or Story. They’ll spend Lindor money on one these guys who will then go on to .700 OPS seasons for years to come. Then, starting in 2023, the Rangers’ ghost ownership group will have some front office lackey tell the fans and press that the perpetual rebuild has been delayed because of a bad contract.
I could see them going after Correa.
They may- but that’s a crowded field going after him with dollars that will be on a Lindor level. If Correa can pick and choose from teams with similar offers, I wonder why he’d pick up the phone for the Rangers. He’d be signing away prime playing years for a laughing stock of a franchise with no real path to winning for many seasons.
I wonder if the Dodgers offer a QO to Taylor. If they do, I can see him accepting it just to get a shot at next year’s market, without the CBA negotiations and all these other shortstops clouding his market.
If the Mets let Lindor at short preclude them from signing any one of the top tier, they’d be nuts. Correa, Seager, or Story could play 2nd or 3rd, Semien could stay at 2nd. Any one of them would be an instant defensive improvement, and solve the 3B issue as well. Baez is a great player, but he’s the only top tier name I wouldn’t invest in long term. The Mets have enough streaky players, they need consistency.
It shouldn’t stop them, but they shouldn’t pay any price either. Like the Yankees, they should monitor the market and if a deal is to be found, they should pounce. None of these guys will be cheap, but if the prices are lower than the Lindor deal, they should be in.
Just how high of a payroll do you expect the Mets to run out there? They’re not even a .500 team. Is this really the time to set payroll records? You want a 290 million dollar payroll for a team chasing a wildcard?
Conforto is leaving, so is Stroman. There’s no impact bat coming for at least 2 years, and the new owner has deep pockets. How often do 3 impact shortstops under 30 hit the market? Pounce now.
They already signed one of those SSs- Lindor! Deep pockets won’t help when the payroll is at 300 million for a mediocre team. They need much more than another SS. Need a COF, BP help, starting pitching. Signing Correa puts them well over the threshold by itself. Still a .500 team at best. What kind of plan is that? “Pounce” on mediocrity??!!! You need a plan other than the short sighted notion of: give big name big money! Owner rich! Spend spend spend!…. A lot of holes to fill. What sense does it make to spend half the budget on one player (and not even a position of need)?
I’m expecting both Lindor and McCann to play better next year, after seeing new pitchers all this year. Back to the previous levels is wishful, but better than this years.
Probably yea. But it’s not gonna be enough. This team needs an overhaul. Not a rebuild, not a spending spree, but an overhaul.
As a Yankees fan, I like Story for the following reasons:
Despite his numbers suggesting he’s the kind of hitter the Yankees need like a hole in the head, consider that he would be a significant upgrade over Gleyber/Gio, That combo just plain sucked in 2021.
Correa will cost a king’s ransom. Seager will be an overpay. Story will cost less. Rockies GM misread the market at the deadline and no team agreed to his asking price. That’s an indicator of what Story will expect in FA.
Story’s H/A splits are bad, but so was Arrenado’s.
If Seattle declines Kyle Seager’s (NOT a Boras client) $15m option, he’ll be a another upgrade – as will Florial at CF. Add Story, and you’ll have a better lineup in 2021. I’d give Gleyber another shot at 2B with DJ at 1B. No to resigning Rizzo. Give Gittens a shot at DH/1B. His BB rate went up while his K rate went down in the minors in 2021. With his power, Gittens could be a surprise. OTOH, Cashman spits on his young players that he didn’t trade for.