2021-22 MLB Free Agents

It’s an MLBTR tradition to maintain a list of not only the immediately pending group of free agents, but also those next in line. As part of the festivities, a certain number of folks fail to read the headline and prefatory language closely, thus prompting vehement protestations about players wrongly included or excluded.

To forestall that outcome to the extent possible, we just ran through the full 2020-21 free agent class on a position-by-position basis. (Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers.) Please explore those lists for the players who’ll be on the open market after the 2020 season.

What follows is a list of second basemen who are presently slated to qualify for free agency after the 2021 season. We’ve already run through the amazing group of shortstops, some big-name veteran backstops, and star first basemen coming to the market. It’s important also to understand that this list is far from exhaustive, in that many second basemen set for free agency in 2020-21 will ultimately ink one-year deals that put them back on track to return to the open market post-2021.

This is how the 2021-22 second base market shapes up at this point (season-age for 2022):

Top of the Class

• Kolten Wong (31): If he can repeat his 2019 campaign, Wong will suit up again for the Cardinals in 2021 on a $12.5MM club option. That’d put him on track to potentially lead the ensuing free agent class. At his best, Wong contributes solid value across the board; last year, he turned in a 108 wRC+ with excellent glovework and baserunning.

Other Established Veterans

Most of these players have substantial experience at other positions, but could conceivably end up as candidates for regular or partial time at second base in the 2021-22 offseason.

• Starlin Castro (32): The Nats were convinced by Castro’s mid-2019 turnaround (first half 60 wRC+; second half 129). If he performs as they hope, he’s still young enough to be a factor in his return to the open market.
• Eduardo Escobar (33): Though he’s better-known for his work at the hot corner, Escobar’s flexibility is a nice asset. He owns a .270/.327/.501 slash over the past two seasons and is generally regarded as an average defender.
• Wilmer Flores (30): If Flores plays well in 2020, he’s a pretty good bet to be picked up on a cheap $3.5MM club option. That’d make him a part of this class, where Flores would again be a bat-first utility infielder. He’s an average hitter against righties who destroys southpaw pitching.
• Greg Garcia (32): A true utility infielder who can be thrown into just about any spot, Garcia has spent most of his time at second base. He’s an approximately league-average hitter for his career, with little power but an uncanny ability to draw free passes.
• Danny Santana (31): He has either been really good or really bad at the plate in the big leagues, but last year Santana was firmly on the upswing. He adds value on the bases and can play most anywhere on the field.
• Eric Sogard (36): If the Brewers pick up his $4.5MM club option, Sogard will join this class. He’s a left-handed hitter who can jump in anywhere in the infield. Sogard was a quality offensive performer in 2017 and 2019, but had a miserable intervening season.
• Donovan Solano (34): Solano put up a surprising 116 wRC+ in 81 games with the Giants last year, so perhaps he could end up on a late-career run.
• Chris Taylor (31): The value here lies in the combination of extreme versatility, including substantial experience at shortstop and in center field, with a quality bat. He has trended down offensively since his breakout 2017 season but remains an above-average hitter.

End of an Era?

• Dustin Pedroia (38): While he’s still holding out hope of a return, Pedroia’s persistent efforts to get his left knee back to playing shape just haven’t worked out. Odds are, he’ll hang ’em up at the end of his deal even if he’s somehow able to make it back to the MLB diamond.

It’s an MLBTR tradition to maintain a list of not only the immediately pending group of free agents, but also those next in line. As part of the festivities, a certain number of folks fail to read the headline and prefatory language closely, thus prompting vehement protestations about players wrongly included or excluded.

To forestall that outcome to the extent possible, we just ran through the full 2020-21 free agent class on a position-by-position basis. (Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers.) Please explore those lists for the players who’ll be on the open market after the 2020 season.

What follows is a list of certain players — specifically, catchers — who are presently slated to qualify for free agency after the 2021 season. We’ve already run through the amazing group of shortstops in that class and taken a look at the veteran backstops coming to the market. It’s important also to understand that this list is far from exhaustive, in that many first basemen set for free agency in 2020-21 will ultimately ink one-year deals that put them back on track to return to the open market post-2021.

This is how the 2021-22 first base market shapes up at this point (season-age for 2022):

Top of the Class

• Freddie Freeman (32): He’s such a franchise icon that the club’s former GM preferred Freeman to his own right arm … and that we forgot to include him in the initial version of this list. Gulp. It is indeed hard to imagine Freeman in another uniform after so many great seasons in Atlanta. Then again, an elbow injury did crop up in 2019. And the team’s current executive leadership may not have quite the same attachment to a much older version of the slugger. We’ll see whether and when serious talks on a second extension. If Freeman does reach the market, there’s a good chance he’ll be one of the most hotly pursued players. But teams are only going to pay so much for a first baseman of this vintage in the current environment.
• Anthony Rizzo (32): He isn’t sure to be part of this class, as the Cubs could in theory decline their option next winter and let Rizzo sign a multi-year deal elsewhere. That’s … unlikely. Through nine years and over five thousand plate appearances in the majors, Rizzo is a .273/.373/.488 hitter who has launched 218 home runs. He has been a steadily excellent producer since his breakout 2014 season. We’ll see what the intervening seasons bring, but the odds are good that Rizzo will be one of the best bats available in the 2021-22 offseason. You might think the Cubs would be interested in pursuing an extension, particularly given Rizzo’s central role in the club’s identity, but the team declined the advances of the star first bagger this offseason. Future talks remain possible, but this was perhaps the most promising window.

Other Regulars

• Brandon Belt (34): Long a high-quality but under-appreciated hitter, Belt has also dealt with significant concussion issues over the years. He was healthy in 2019, but also drooped in the power department — already a source of consternation for many Giants fans — over the past two campaigns. There are some rays of hope. Belt’s plate discipline was as good as ever last year (13.5% walk rate, 20.6% strikeout rate). And by measure of Statcast, he has produced better contact than the results would suggest (.327 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA in 2018; .319 vs. .346 in 2019).
• Matt Carpenter (36): While he’s not playing first base at the moment, Carpenter has plenty of experience there and will likely be viewed as a first bagger when he reaches free agency. It feels rather likely that the Cardinals will end up paying a $2MM buyout rather than exercising a $18.5MM vesting option. Then again, couldn’t Carpenter’s sudden fall-off in 2019 represent a blip? He was a top-notch offensive producer for years before. I can’t think offhand of a player whose Statcast readings dove so dramatically. Carpenter dropped from a 44.7% hard contact rate in 2018 to a miserly 31.1% rate in 2019, while he sunk from a .392 xwOBA (his fourth-straight season ranking in the top ten percent leaguewide by that metric) to a middling .332 mark. Carpenter ended the year with a .225/.334/.392 batting line and personal-high 26.2% strikeout rate. He could be a big factor in this market, but he’ll have to figure out what went wrong.

Other Option Possibilities

Like Rizzo, several other notable players can each be controlled for the 2021 season through club options. Should that come to pass, those players would play out their contracts before returning to the open market. If they don’t perform well enough, there’s still a good chance they’ll end up in the 2021-22 free agent class.

• Carlos Santana (36; $17.5MM option, $500K buyout) and Edwin Encarnacion (39; $12MM option, no buyout) lead the way here. It’s not certain they’ll be in this class: their options are expensive enough that they could conceivably be sent onto the open market after a good-but-not-great season and still end up signing a multi-year deal. And Encarnacion, at least, is getting up there in years. Another player with a lot of money at stake is Daniel Murphy (37), who’ll either receive a $6MM buyout or play for a $12MM salary in 2021.
• Todd Frazier (36; $5.75MM option, $1.5MM buyout), Justin Smoak (35; $5.5MM option, $1MM buyout), Eric Thames (35; $4MM mutual option, $1MM buyout), and Mitch Moreland (36; $3MM option, $500K buyout) are all also possibilities to become parts of this class.

Names to Watch

• Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30): The Japanese star inked a two-year deal with the Rays this past offseason. It’s anyone’s guess how it’ll look when Tsutsugo is ready to return to the open market. While he has historically spent most of his time in the outfield, he’s being given time in the infield in Tampa Bay and has experience at first base in Nippon Professional Baseball.
• Mark Canha (33): He’s currently finding success ranging on the outfield grass, but Canha came up primarily as a first baseman. And if he can sustain his monster 2019 output — .273/.396/.517 — then the bat will play anywhere on the diamond.
• Ian Desmond (36): It’s all but inconceivable that the Rockies will exercise their $15MM club option ($2MM buyout) over the struggling veteran, so he’s sure to be a part of this class. Even with a bounceback platform season, though, teams aren’t likely to relish the idea of plugging Desmond into their first base mix. Though he was rather oddly plugged in at first when the Rockies signed him, the former shortstop and center fielder’s real potential value lies in his defensive versatility.

We’ve recently taken a position-by-position run through next winter’s free agent class, highlighting which catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers will be available. All in all, it’s a class with top-heavy class, headlined by Mookie Betts and then dropping off to a series of appealing stars like J.T. Realmuto, George Springer and Marcus Semien. Next year’s group has plenty of intriguing pitchers but no standout aces and, outside of Betts, there’s probably no surefire candidate to score anything greater than a five-year deal on the open market. (Caveat: as has been oft discussed, that’s particularly true of next winter, when it seems safe to expect a more tepid free-agent market as owners look to recoup lost revenues from the 2020 season.)

Mookie-mania will make for a fun headline story in free agency. So will Trevor Bauer’s year-to-year mercenary act, which will begin this coming winter.

But at the risk of looking a little too far down the line, it’s hard not to notice that the 2021-22 crop of free agent shortstops might be the single best collection of players we’ve ever seen at one position in one free-agent class. Extensions, injuries and downturns could thin out this group — but unexpected one-year deals this winter (could Semien or Didi Gregorius accept a qualifying offer?) could also theoretically deepen it. As things stand, here’s an early look at a legitimately jaw-dropping crop of shortstop talent that will hit the market upon conclusion of the 2021 season (age for the 2022 season included in parentheses)…

Top of the Class

• Francisco Lindor (28): Lindor turned down an extension offer reported to be worth more than $100MM a few years ago, and the move looks wise. He’s already topped $28MM in arbitration salaries and could plausibly command $300MM+ on a free-agent deal.
• Javier Baez (29): Baez has been in extension talks with the Cubs, but their ownership has been reluctant to spend money in recent winters. Baez was an All-Star in 2018-19, finished second in ’18 MVP voting and is one of MLB’s most well-rounded infielders.
• Carlos Correa (27): Correa hasn’t topped 110 games since 2016, but the former AL Rookie of the Year has been 29 percent better than the league-average hitter in his career, per wRC+. The average shortstop hasn’t topped 100 during his time in the Majors.
• Trevor Story (29): No shortstop has more than Story’s 123 home runs since the time of his MLB debut in 2016 (despite missing about two months of that season due to injury). He’ll have to overcome the standard Coors Field stigma, but he’s hit for power on the road as well and grades out very well at shortstop (career +40 DRS).
• Corey Seager (28): The 2016 NL Rookie of the Year returned from 2018 Tommy John surgery to swat 19 homers and an NL-leading 44 doubles in just 139 games in 2019. With so much star power around him in L.A., Seager has in some ways become underrated.

Established Veterans/Potential Regulars

• Chris Taylor (31): Taylor has been outstanding since the Dodgers acquired him in a low-profile deal that wound up looking like a heist. He’s hit .268/.340/.468 in three seasons while playing all over the outfield and everywhere but first base on the infield.
• Brandon Crawford (35): Long one of the game’s best defensive players, Crawford’s all-around game has taken a dip in recent years. There’s still time for the lifelong Giant to turn things around, though, and he should be provided ample opportunity to do so given his status as a leader in San Francisco.
• Miguel Rojas (33): The Marlins hold a $5.5MM option over Rojas that’ll vest if he reaches 500 plate appearances in 2021. Rojas plays quality defense and is extremely difficult to strike out. But if he reaches the open market after 2021, it’ll be because Miami deemed him expendable despite that affordable rate.

Utility/Bench Options

• Greg Garcia (32): Garcia has never hit that much, but he’s a useful defender at three infield positions who draws plenty of walks. Some could argue that his walk rate is propped up by hitting ahead of the pitcher, but Garcia has walked at a 13.8 percent clip in 326 PAs hitting leadoff, too.
• Donovan Solano (34): Solano had barely seen the Majors since 2014 when he came out of nowhere to hit .330/.360/.456 in 228 PAs with the Giants last year. There’s a fair bit of smoke and mirror there, evidenced by a .409 BABIP, but that renaissance will still give him some new life in the big leagues.
• Danny Santana (31): Speaking of unexpected renaissances, Santana brushed away a combined .219/.256/.319 from 2015-18 (732 PAs) to rake at a .283/.324/.534 clip with Texas last year. His strikeout rate soared to nearly 30 percent, though, and while his .353 BABIP wasn’t as high as his .405 mark from his brilliant rookie season in ’14, it still seems ripe for regression.

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When a 28-year-old Corey Seager is the fourth- or fifth-best option at his position in free agency, we’ve officially reached the twilight zone. All five members in the “top of the class” bucket were first-round or supplemental first-round picks. In fact, all but Story, who “fell” to No. 45 overall, were selected inside the top 20. Correa was the No. 1 overall pick and isn’t even in the conversation for the best name on the list. All five were top 100 prospects. They’ve all made at least one All-Star team, and Correa is the only one of the bunch who hasn’t won a Silver Slugger (thanks largely to the fact that he shares a league with Lindor, who has won four in a row).

While the 2020-21 crop of free agents doesn’t have more than one total free agent who is a lock for a deal of six years or more in length, the 2021-22 class has five shortstops who could push for that length of contract given their track record, upside and in particular, their age. They won’t all get there, but right now we can’t rule any of them out.

Lindor seems like a lock, barring a catastrophic injury. Baez has some plate discipline questions but is an excellent defender and baserunner with plus power. Story’s defense probably doesn’t get enough attention, and he’s certainly not a bad hitter on the road. (There’s also some evidence to suggest that road performance is depressed for Rockies hitters, just as their home performance is bolstered, thanks to altitude issues.) Seager and Correa have been hit hard by injuries and would do well to avoid the IL between now and the conclusion of the 2021 season, but we’re talking about two shortstops on the right side of 30 with career wRC+ marks of 128 and 129, respectively, and 18-plus fWAR apiece through their first four-plus seasons (Seager despite missing nearly all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery).

We’ll need to see just how free agency is hit by a season of diminished revenue in 2020 and what impact the expiring collective bargaining agreement has on open-market pricing. The current CBA expires in December 2021. And even if market circumstances are largely normal, to what extent will the sheer volume of quality shortstops available hurt the top players’ earning power? Right now, Lindor is the cream of the crop, but any of the five will have a bit harder time drumming up a true bidding war thanks to the presence of the others. All that said, the stage is set for some unprecedented fireworks thanks to what could very well be the best collection of shortstops we’ll ever see reach free agency at the same time.

It’s an MLBTR tradition to maintain a list of not only the immediately pending group of free agents, but also those next in line. As part of the festivities, a certain number of folks fail to read the headline and prefatory language closely, thus prompting vehement protestations about players wrongly included or excluded.

To forestall that outcome to the extent possible, we just ran through the full 2020-21 free agent class on a position-by-position basis. (Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers.) Please explore those lists for the players who’ll be on the open market after the 2020 season.

What follows is a list of certain players — specifically, catchers — who are presently slated to qualify for free agency after the 2021 season. We’ve already run through the amazing group of shortstops in that class. The backstops don’t feature that kind of unbounded earning power. It’s important also to understand that this list is far from exhaustive, in that many catchers set for free agency in 2020-21 will ultimately ink one-year deals that put them back on track to return to the open market post-2021.

This is how the 2021-22 catching market shapes up at this point (season-age for 2022; alphabetical order within category):

Top of the Class

• Salvador Perez (32): One of the game’s true workhorses behind the dish, Perez missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery. But the respite could conceivably enhance his long-term outlook after averaging 138 games annually over the prior six seasons. Perez’s value is a matter of quite some disagreement. Baseball Prospectus catching grades don’t love his work behind the dish and he’s a roughly average hitter whose best attribute (power) may lead some to overrate his abilities on offense. Fangraphs values his total career contribution at an underwhelming 10 WAR. Per Baseball-Reference’s measures, which give far more credence to Perez’s efforts with the glove, it’s a far more robust 22.1 WAR.
• Buster Posey (35): It’s tough to imagine the Giants will end up exercising a $22MM club option rather than allowing Posey to test the open market with a $3MM buyout on his way out. Posey is a historically important member of the San Francisco organization, but there’s hope his eventual replacement (Joey Bart) is already nearing the majors. More importantly, the decline has been precipitous for the once-great Posey. Long a well-above-average hitter, he drooped in 2018 and fell off a cliff last year, when he posted a .257/.320/.368 slash line. The good news here is that Posey remains a high-quality performer behind the dish. And he may have been unlucky at the plate; Statcast credits him with a .315 xwOBA but he managed only a .298 wOBA. Given the talent level, it’s too soon to rule out a late-career surge.

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

• Roberto Perez (33): If the Indians end up picking up their cheap option over Perez for 2021, he’d be on track to hit free agency in the ensuing winter. If he can keep up last year’s league-average offensive output, the defensive standout might have a run of success as a near-everyday option.
• Wilson Ramos (34): Another player covered by a club option in 2021, Ramos is a bat-first backstop who seems destined for an eventual return to the American League for the later stage of his career. He graded poorly in the field in 2019, when he carried a big workload for the Mets, but he has historically fared rather well with the glove. Durability remains an ongoing issue as well.

Top Timeshare Candidates

• Tucker Barnhart (31): The Reds will have to decide between a $7.5MM club option and $500K buyout. Barnhart is a solid performer behind the plate and could function well as a half-time player for some time to come. The switch-hitter has a palatable 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
• Travis d’Arnaud (33): A strong bounceback 2019 season earned d’Arnaud a two-year deal with the Braves. He isn’t likely to turn into a full everyday receiver, having only once topped four hundred plate appearances in a season.
• Yan Gomes (34): While he’s a steady hand in the field, Gomes wasn’t able to match his solid 2018 offensive work in the 2019 season. The Nats still liked him well enough as a timeshare guy to offer a two-year pact.
• Martin Maldonado (35): The bat is never going to be a strength, but Maldonado is a trusted hand. He keeps finding himself in demand at the trade deadline.
• Manny Pina (34): Pina is a somewhat underappreciated contributor. He performs well with the mask on and doesn’t hurt too much on offense, where he’s a career 90 wRC+ performer.