When a team wants to subtract some salary from its ledger, it can sometimes arrange a trade that packages a well-paid veteran player with some prospects. The team on the receiving end effectively “buys” the prospects by taking on the unwanted salary of that veteran. The most recent example of this was the trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers, with the Red Sox receiving Jackie Bradley Jr., along with infield prospects David Hamilton and Alex Binelas.
Renfroe was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $7.6MM in 2022, while Bradley will earn $9.5MM in 2022 and then there is a mutual option for 2023 that comes with a $12MM salary and $8MM buyout. Given Bradley’s horrible season at the plate in 2021, the Brewers wanted to get rid of that contract, and were willing to part with a couple of prospects to do it while still getting back a useful piece. The Red Sox, for their part, will take on that salary, hoping for a bounceback from Bradley. But even if that doesn’t happen, they will have bolstered their farm at least.
For other teams that want to follow the Brewers and shuffle a contract around, they might want to start by contacting the Nationals. After a massive trade deadline selloff in 2021, their current payroll is the lowest it’s been in years. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates that they’re currently lined up for an opening day number of $118MM. The last time they were below that was 2012, the year 19-year-old Bryce Harper made his debut. In the past four years, they’ve been between $180MM and $200MM, prorating 2020’s number. (Past figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)
The club is looking to “reboot” for a year or two, but seems to want to return to competing before superstar Juan Soto reaches free agency after the 2024 season. That means they are in position for this type of deal, as long as it’s a contract of the short-term variety. They could add to the young talent they acquired in their 2021 fire sale, while not limiting their ability to make a big move or two for the 2024 campaign and beyond.
The White Sox ran a franchise-high payroll in 2021 and are currently lined up to blow past that in 2022. Trading Craig Kimbrel, who has one year and $16MM remaining on his contract, appears to be in their plans. Another option would be Dallas Keuchel, who will make $18MM in 2022. He also has a $20MM club option for 2023 with a $1.5MM buyout, although that option would also vest if Keuchel throws 160 innings in 2022. The White Sox finished dead last on Baseball America’s most recent Organization Talent Rankings, meaning that sending some prospects out the door might not be the top of their to-do list. (The Nats, despite their big deadline haul, came in 23rd.) However, Chicago’s window of contention is wide open, standing out as the current favourite in the AL Central, meaning their priority should be the present and not the future. For the Nationals, they have lots of question marks on their pitching staff after trading away so many arms. Their staff is mostly composed of unproven youngsters, to go along with veterans like Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Will Harris, who come with question marks of their own.
The Rays have never been shy about moving their more expensive veteran players, trading away Blake Snell, Tommy Pham and many others in recent years. Kevin Kiermaier’s name has been floated as someone else who could follow them out of The Trop, seemingly ever since they signed him to an extension in 2017. That extension is now entering its final guaranteed year, with Kiermaier set to make just over $12MM in 2022, though there’s also a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for 2023. The Nats don’t really have anyone who should be guaranteed an outfield job, other than Soto. Lane Thomas had a strong showing after coming over from the Cardinals, but that was a small sample of just 45 games.
The Reds are trying to thread the needle of dropping payroll yet staying competitive. Mike Moustakas is owed $38MM over the final two years of his contract, including the buyout of a 2024 club option, and he’s been somewhat crowded out by the breakout campaign of Jonathan India. By moving Moustakas, they could hold onto their highly-coveted starting pitcher trio of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. The Nats probably want Carter Kieboom to get a long run of playing time at third, but Moustakas could split time at second with Cesar Hernandez and act as a fallback plan in the event Kieboom struggles to secure the job. The implementation of the DH for the NL would also help spread the at-bats around. Shogo Akiyama is another option, as he had a rough campaign in 2021 and still has one year and $8MM remaining on his contract.
There are dozens of other options, as most teams have a contract that they wouldn’t mind getting off the books a year or two early. Some other rapidfire examples: Jake Odorizzi, Carlos Santana, Justin Upton, Randal Grichuk, David Price, Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Paul DeJong.
With the Nats about $60MM to $80MM below their recent spending levels, they have a lot of room to work with. Though they’d surely like to keep payroll a bit lower during this rebooting phase, they’d also be wise to at least consider “buying” a few prospects to help them quickly build back up. After all, Soto won’t be interested in signing an extension until the club proves they’re trying to win. Spending some money now to improve the future could be one way of trying to convince him.
Keuchel, Burger and Engel for Moustakas and akiyama? Don’t quite know but that might be an idea…
Moncada plays 2nd?
I don’t see the White Sox trading a prospect to get rid of Kimbrel’s salary. That would look awful. They could have just let him walk for free and kept all their prospects. I could see the Rays trading KK but I don’t think they would attach a prospect just to do it. That team loves their prospects. They probably want something in return for KK. There’s no reason to make the farm worse just to get rid of him.
Some of the other teams work though. The Padres should look into trading Hosmer and prospects for Josh Bell. That contract is so long though I’m not sure the Nats would do it. It would have to involve several very good prospects for them to take on that kind of money.
Retaining Kimbrel at $16MM with his lackluster second half and another very good closer already in place has looked like a misstep to me all along.
Will Kimbrel plus $8MM (or more) bring back a decent enough prospect to justify picking up that option, or is this just the White Sox giving in to the sunk cost fallacy?
Please hammer- exactly right
I don’t think Kimbrel + $8 million gets much of anything back in return. At this point it makes more sense for the White Sox to hold onto Kimbrel and see if a bullpen with him, Graveman and Hendricks can reach it’s maximum potential. There is no way the trade market gives the White Sox anything close to that $16 million investment. Once you consider they also invested Madrigal that whole Kimbrel scenario looks really bad. They really overpaid for him not just once but twice in a row. That’s a rarity even amongst some of the worst GM’s. They usually learn their lesson with a player when he is bad the first time.
I am not sure they would do it either. I think Hosmer’s contract is for 20 this year and then 13 each the next three years. It seems a little long although not as long and not nearly as much as Strasburg’s contract. Robert Hassell would have to be included in this deal.
Doesn’t he play 3B?
I was asking in the scenario they acquire Moustakes
Reading is hard.
Moustakas is more likely to play 2B than Moncada.
Chipper- yes, he came up as a second baseman. In the scenario that the Sox acquire A 3B Moncada would likely play 2B
Sox will not move Moncada to 2B.
Yoyo has excelled at 3B and this has positively impacted his hitting, too.
“Keuchel, Burger and Engel for Moustakas and akiyama?”
What would that trade accomplish for the Sox? You’re moving one mediocre player, one good player, and one solid prospect for two awful, overpaid players.
Although I am curious, if Keuchel looks bad again in 2022 can they just DFA him to make sure that 2023 option doesn’t vest?
Keuchel will be pitching out of the bullpen in 2022 and, therefore, won’t pitch enuff innings to vest for 2023.
Dumpster Diving Rick
Makes absolutely no sense for Chicago to give up prospects in a salary dump just to receive two bad contracts in return
Nationals Sponsored Content
Sounds like the cash flow industry infomercial.
“After all, Soto won’t be interested in signing an extension until the club proves they’re trying to win.”
Really? Who says? Becoming a half-billionaire now without risking a big injury or something in the coming years is worth a lot.
@ seamaholic 2;
His agent – Scott Boras – said that a few weeks ago.
Perhaps you missed it.
Soto is likely to become a half billionaire anywhere he goes. He might as well do it with a team that has a good chance of winning. The Nats have a better chance of finishing in last place. Things can change a lot in 3 years though.
“Likely” does not equal “certain.” When that much money is at stake, you want to be certain. He can always get the Nats to trade him if things don’t go well. I think the chances of him signing an extension with Washington are roughly 99%.
You are now my favorite commenter on this site of all time. Yes, we Nats fans would be ecstatic to know that there is a 99% chance to extend Soto.
99% is really high to me. I agree the Nats are the favorite individual team but the rest of the field combined has to be favored more. That would give the Nats less than a 50% chance. I think there is a 99% chance Soto goes to free agency instead of signing an extension. Boras clients like to do that a lot and I’m guessing Boras is pushing Soto to do the same so he can set another free agent record. At that point the Nats would likely have to offer the biggest contract. That’s going to be hard. The Nats have money but a lot of the other 29 teams will have money as well and can’t wait to make Soto their highest paid player in franchise history. A lot of those teams will also look like better chances to win than Washington so the Nats would probably have to outbid them all and stand alone with the most lucrative offer.
Rizzo and Lerner have frequently said “this team is built around pitching” when referring to how they construct the roster. They spent a ton of money on guys like Strasburg, Corbin and Scherzer while letting Harper and Rendon leave.
I just personally have a hard time believing Soto will do anything but test the free agent market. I think once he sees how much other teams are willing to offer him and how close those teams are winning a championship he will probably choose to leave. I think the Nats would have to offer him more money than any other team to keep him. Basically the opposite of a hometown discount. I doubt that’s what happens though.
@ Please, Hammer. Don’t hurt ’em.;
Soto has said he wants to stay with the Nationals. Boras has had a great working relationship directly with ownership.
I don’t doubt that he resigns there for a record contact – one that will surprise most people. But it will only be if the Nationals are set-up as sustainable contenders. Boras laid down that primary condition, but it’s pretty clear ownership and the FO already knew it. They’re not dumb people, they’ve had contending teams for years.
As I wrote above – they believe in a few stars as cornerstones. We’ll see what they do over the next 2 years. If they haven’t made progress as Soto’s walk year begins I’d suspect he will become the most sought after rental in history – and the Nationals would realize the situation and get what they can.
– Rizzo and Lerner have frequently said “this team is built around pitching” when referring to how they construct the roster. They spent a ton of money on guys like Strasburg, Corbin and Scherzer while letting Harper and Rendon leave.” –
–
@ Please, Hammer. Don’t hurt ’em;
They let Harper leave because they had Soto. I wrote here at the end of his 1/2 rookie year that he was already a better all-around player than Harper (and far cheaper). People thought it was hyperbole. But watching their game it was obvious (in Philly Harper quit his hotdogging and has become a solid player and team leader).
They probably let Rendon leave as it came down to keeping him or possibly losing Strasburg in a few years. At that point Strasburg was finally looking like the ace pitcher they’d hope for as he was far better than Max in the WS winning season; and they thought they had a 3B replacement in Carter Kieboom. After 2 years Strasburg has retreated back to his up-and-down seasons featuring lingering injuries; Rendon has been injured and also exposed as more of a quality position player but not a cornerstone to build around; and Kieboom (like Victor Robles) is hanging onto a ML roster spot by his fingernails….which no one foresaw.
The Nationals are about a balanced team. Lost in the recent hoopla is that in the past they built around cornerstone position players Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman for years and paid them top salaries.
They didn’t trade Harper when his contract was expiring
@please hammer
Yeah, same thinking that Harper followed. He got paid, but WSH did the winning. Philly now looks like they’ve run out of money to spend. Maybe Soto will learn from Harper’s choice.
I’d take 100% and feel more comfortable (fortunately Boras and the Nationals have a long working history). Soto is the type of kid you want as the face of your organization for years to come. He’s a generational talent with Ryan Zimmerman’s charisma.
I live in Texas presently (MVD native). When we say prayers at dinner each night, at the end of the prayer, my three year old daughter closes out the prayer with “God bless Donald Trump and Juan Soto.” The Juan Soto love among Nationals fans is real. The last player I saw with Soto’s freakish talent and charm (however at a different position) was Jose Fernandez (may he RIP). Here’s hoping Soto never loses his love for the game – he’s the type of player that keeps the younger kids hooked on America’s past time.
We can always thank Werth for changing the culture of the franchise IMO. If he doesn’t sign, I always wondered if other big name FA would have gone elsewhere.
Probably just a negotiating tactic on Boras’ part
Hey did you notice how “won’t be interested” part of that quote is highlighted in red? There’s usually a reason for that. It might have been Juan Soto himself who even said it.=))
Him or his agent. Boras is quoted in the link.
Big difference between those two. No way on this earth that Juan Soto said that.
Doesn’t the red highlight just mean there’s a link? It’s a writer’s choice, it means nothing in terms of evidence.
A non baseball but recent example: Jared Goff to the Lions for Matt Stafford and a whole lot of draft picks.
You cant trade draft picks in baseball though, sadly.
Which is stupid. I heard at one point that this could be a topic in the new CBA (year/s ago), but I’ve heard nothing since.
It’s in no one’s interest to fight for, so pretty unlikely. Baseball uniquely has farm systems, so trading from that stock is the equivalent of trading draft picks.
Trading draft picks would accelerate rebuilding an organization. Teams could ‘tank it’ for 2-3 years rather than 5+ years. If trading draft picks isn’t up for discussion, it ought to be…
If the Reds are looking to unload Moustakas they will likely have to include either Gray or Mahle, + a low level prospect..
You’re absolutely correct – it’s what they’ll have to do. But the problem we’ve seen where the Reds are concerned is that they won’t care what comes back. That approach dates back to the Chapman trade. They just trade off veterans – albatross contract or not – and the return isn’t even a consideration
How about Moustakas plus Antone for Will Harris?
Reds take on Harris for immediate bullpen help and to offset some of the Moustakas salary. Nationals get a potential future closer if he can return in 2023 from his TJ surgery. Moustakas would be a veteran backup at 3B/2B/DH and could start at 1B after 2022 or could allow the Nats to deal Josh Bell now.
Soto already has a ring so he will be going for the money rather than winning right away.
Porque no los dos?
They always go for the money, and should. Just because you sign a contract with a team for the max you can get, doesn’t mean you’re stuck with that team for the whole term. Just ask Stanton or Arenado or Scherzer. It’s the best of both worlds for Soto to sign for the biggest guarantee he can negotiate with the Nats.
Nationals take Randal Grichuk, roughly 2 years 20 mill
Blue Jays send over
Gunnar Hogland
1 of Kevan Smith or Otto Lopez
Samad Taylor
Nationals take Trevor Bauer, cut him, but take on the 2 year 64 mill owed
Dodgers send over
1 of Ryan Pepiot or Bobby Miller
1 of Andy Pages or Michael Busch
Kody Hoese
Jorvit Vivas
Alex De Jesus
Nationals can definitely buy prospects by taking a bad contract from a team looking to contend.
Dodgers aren’t gutting their farm system just to shed cash. They would be the last team in baseball to do that.
Friedman & Co. are probably waiting/hoping for MLB to suspend Bauer for possibly as much as a full season before making any decisions on him.
With their money, the Dodgers could probably just release Bauer and keep their prospects should Bauer be suspended a half season or more.
All that time on admin leave is going to count towards any suspension. Marte got a retroactive 20 game suspension I believe. I wouldn’t expect Bauer to get much or at all past the time he missdd last year:
Ozuna is what I meant to type. Marte did get himself a nice PED suspension a few years ago though….
Will be interesting to see whether and how that Ozuna time-served decision may inform MLB’s decision on Bauer.
I think the Dodgers won’t care if Bauer gets suspended as long as it’s least than a full season. Maybe after Ozuna he gets something similar and the dodgers keep him until they have to and then to the NPB or Mexican league he goes
Not sure that NPB will take Bauer.
But if they cut Bauer, won’t they have to pay his guaranteed contract?? Ya may as well keep him at least until you can see how long he’ll be suspended. When the decision comes, he may get off a little easier than some anticipate because the league could possibly factor in kind of a “time served” deal with him already missing an entire season while the court (or whoever) makes their extremely slow decision.
Teams aren’t giving up that much for salary relief. Dodgers can just eat it and keep on going.
Kind of pointless discussing team salaries right now. Will depend on the rules under the CBA.
If HOU is willing to dump Odo, he should be an interesting target. he actually rebounded well after a rough start to last year.
Odorizzi’s deal really isn’t underwater very much. Lyles got 7. Odo gets 10. He probably gets a lotto ticket attached at best.
The Nationals may not have a ton of free money that they want to spend. The team has been giving out a huge amount of deferred money over the last 7-8 years on their contracts. I would imagine they want to go back to a near $200MM payroll when competitive and would rather spend that money then.
Perhaps they’ll eat a bad deal or two now but this might be just be the expected lean years after they’ve extended themselves.
You have another 28.5 million the Nats have to pay out in deferrals to players not listed here.
So the Jays lose Grichuk’s glove and prospects and get Nothing in return?
I don’t see that happening!
They can use those prospects plus Grichuk, and trade for Kimbrel.
Not sure the White Sox want Grichuk though. They don’t really have a spot for him.
Robert, Jimenez, Vaughn, and Sheets all will take up ABS. But….maybe.
They just have to know guardians don’t want grichuk under any circumstances! Don’t even speak that name to Cleveland
Ps ! To my fellow Mets fans neither guardians or nationals want jd davis of Denmark or dom smith from Mets ! You’re welcome
Yes, Soto’s years of control are as good a point as any for Rizzo and his FO to work with. Mr. McDonald’s article is spot on.
The Nationals were in a precarious position all last year, I saw their collapse coming and thought that ownership might pull the plug on Rizzo. The organization had 2 shortcomings with only a few exceptions: 1) a terrible record of getting productive players via their farm system; and 2) an inability to develop and maintain pitchers. Then I saw Rizzo go to work at the trading deadline and was stunned by his actions. In short – they were brilliant.
In today’s MLB the foundation of the position players are 1) strong Catcher that can call a game, work with the pitching staff, and block balls in the dirt; 2) a SS that is not only a great fielder, but has a high Baseball IQ; and 3) a solid run producing bat. Rizzo’s MO is to bring in star players as cornerstones and build around them.
1) There are few good Catchers in MLB, and seldom are any available. Rizzo picked up a great young one to build around in Keibert Ruiz. No guarantees of course, He also picked up a few other young Catchers to work with. 2) He’s looking for a SS – and I believe that the Nationals are a long-shot candidate for Correa. 3) Soto is the bat they need to retain.
In Pitching Rizzo believe in 3 top starters and building a bullpen though the season, usually bring in BP guys near the trading deadline. From the Dodgers he picked up a #4-5 starter in Josiah Gray, that could be a solid #3 within the next few years. Corbin and Strasburg are questionable, but he’s stuck with their contracts.
Rizzo has to find a long-term SS, a TOR pitcher, and the players to fill around the stars. Getting some prospects from other teams is going to be necessary – so the article is spot on. at some point he’ll spring for a top flight FA ace pitcher, but that will be at least a year or two away. But most importantly, he and his organization need to rethink how they work with handle pitchers. If they don’t improve that quickly there is no way Soto sticks around.
Soto to the Mets.
Stevie Cohen’s beautiful money.
We need to see where the Mets are at in 2-3 years.
Right now Mr. Cohen is headed in the direction of the Yankees – a team that is currently stuck with a roster of players that are one dimensional, aging, overpaid for what they do; which makes them impossible to move. They have to depend on their farm system which their fans refuse to wait on (Yankees fans here are steadfastly against playing Estevan Florial in CF even though he’s easily the best fielding OF they have anywhere in the organization – at 24 the fans believe he’s a failure).
Mr. Cohen has the NYC mentality of how to build a team – rebuilds are not to be considered. It will be interesting if he just releases veteran players on long-term contracts in the future as a “Suck Cost” (a stupid expression that somehow justifies throwing money away) – while getting nothing in return. Then he spends ever more money on a new group of FA players that drive salaries around the league ever higher…..which of course will be loved by players and their agents, resulting in the other owners banning together to insist on new penalties for that sort of behavior. That’s years down the road of course, and I hope to watch it come about. One owner that attempts to drive the other owners out of business, causing the entire MLB apparatus to come tumbling down. LOL Will be funny to watch.
I always thought Grichuk would look sexy in National red.
The Cubs are willing to trade Jason Heyward for a 12 pack of cheap beer.
Bob Nutting would be the first in line
You would think so, except now that Polanco is gone there really aren’t any Pirate contracts to offload, or veterans which could fetch a prospect or two.
For a few years, I’ve been curious about the strategy of a “Bad Contracts Rebuild.” Since it’s not my money, I can ponder dropping $100M on prospects, but there doesn’t seem much interest from owners.
I also think the Nats are in a tough window. Soto is a helluva an asset, but the team is unlikely to compete until his final year. Personally, I wouldn’t want to pay him 500M (which he deserves.) At the same time, trading him isn’t really an option either.
This is an interesting team to follow.
Why spend 100 million to acquire prospects when you can save it and spend it in a couple years, unless it is a truly special player? Take Hosmer if you get CJ Abrams, sure.
The players you listed are mostly meh-type guys. Meanwhile, why not the Cubs? If any team is open to taking on a bad contract to pick up a prospect it’s the Chicago National League Ballclub.
I think the reasoning behind the Nationals being mentioned is compared to all the really subpar teams of last season, they’re the only ones that really don’t have a truly great farm system. So the point is they’d be willing to take on bad contracts to improve the farm
If the Yankees are seeking a change at CF and 1B, maybe go for Josh Bell and Victor Robles?
Angels should jump at the chance to send Upton and, say, Brandon Marsh to the Nationals. Spend the savings on SP and SS
If they were to hypothetically trade Marsh why not just deal him for a quality SP instead? I can’t see the type of pitcher the LAA need on the FA market, and attaching Marsh just to unload Upton to buy a #3 SP in FA feels like taking the long way to try to get home.
I would not be totally surprised to see the Nats take on Upton, if they think he is healthy enough, along with a good prospect or two. Rizzo has tried to get Upton before.
Nats should really be looking at making Soto the highest paid player in the league these next couple years. Rizzo will likely explore trying to bring back Trea next year after he hits FA. Give the young guys – Kieboom, Ruiz, Gray, Cavalli, Rutledge – as much time to develop this year and next. Then spend in FA next year and the year after.
None of that makes sense for Washington as I’m not even sure if they know what kind of team they are. Are they fringe contenders? Retooling? Rebuilding? Taking on bad contracts while giving away even lotto tickets in a thin farm system is not a good idea on Rizzo’s part
The article suggests the Nats would take on bad contracts to also get good prospects. The article does not suggest at any point that the Nats give up prospects, even lotto ticket types.
Maybe but unless your name is Brian Cashman you don’t usually get something for nothing.
It would still make no sense for the Nationals to take on bad contracts just to do so. I get the concept but just don’t see them doing it
The Mets have a dozen combinations to get rid of overpaid players but unfortunately Cohen has the cash to ride out Cano and Carrasco.
Please someone take Ozuna for a prospect or two
They should contact the Nats because no one spends more foolishly than the Nationals, who in addition to spending foolishly love to defer so much money that even their future lean years will include bloated payrolls.