UPDATE: The contest is now closed. We’ll be rooting for the lockout to end as soon as possible.
You’re here on this website, waiting for some sort of news indicating the MLB lockout will soon end. We’ve got nothing: no indication of recent talks or progress. Transactions are frozen, so we’re left to do our best talking about what happened in November and what might happen post-lockout.
That means our free agent prediction contest is frozen too, with Scott Schum standing alone atop the leaderboard with a .433 batting average. Scott has been able to pull off this Nap Lajoie-like feat by correctly predicting the destinations of Corey Seager, Marcus Stroman, and Starling Marte, among many others.
I thought it might be fun to make the best of a bad situation by creating a contest to predict the date on which the lockout officially ends. Everyone who guesses correctly will receive a free one-year subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office, or a one-year extension if you already have one.
By “officially ends,” I mean the date on which a press release from MLB goes out declaring the lockout over. If there winds up being some subjectivity on the official date, the MLBTR staff will deliberate and decide.
If you’re interested in signing up for Trade Rumors Front Office right now, click here to learn more about the benefits.
I went with 2/5. If we’re just picking dates at random might as well give myself a birthday gift.
I picked 6/1 or later because I refuse to get my hopes up. Keep your expectations low and you can never be disappointed.
considering there’s no scheduled talks between the two sides you’re probably closer than me.
I suggested this contest weeks ago, glad Tim took my advice. And I am sticking with my prediction I made at the time, May the 4th.
So why no article on Corsi?
Keep your expectations low and always be depressed.
2/24 was my pick because that’s mine. Great minds. Kudos.
I went with March 13because that’s mine. Lol
When do pitchers and catchers usually report to camp? I want to pick a date before they report
Around March 34th usually
Knock it off, clown!
It’s in the middle of February.
Friday of the second week.
In spite of clowns like Emerson, this contest sounds like fun.
Are you allergic to jokes?
I’d rather be a clown than a lazy moron.
I’m just a lazy clown
Easy @Fred. His post made me laugh out loud, which I appreciate. It’s not like posts on a baseball site are super serious or consequential. Hey Lloyd, got any other funny ones?
Well, maybe so, giantsphan12, but please try to act like a grownup nonetheless.
This excessive clowning is an insult to the responsible and serious-minded folks who make this blog possible.
As for me, I seriously respect the game of baseball and what it has meant over the years when nothing much else was making any sense.
Guys like Tim Dierkes must sometimes feel they are casting their pearls before swine.
Fred is asking to speak to the manager as we speak.
I don’t think Tim is going to stop writing due to a simple light hearted joke buried in the comments of which, is not even a direct response to the article. you must be a hit at the kid’s birthday parties with that amazing sense of humor
Yep, the name of a male Karen has flipped from Chad to Fred.
spring training starts in the middle of february
Lousy Smarch weather.
Around Feb 15.
Thank you. I didn’t 2/7
Went with 2/18, my kids’ ETA. Hope they aren’t waiting on the lockout to end, but I suspect they’re monitoring the situation in the womb, too.
Congrats!! May all be healthy and happy!
Thanks, can’t wait to meet my little Spahn.
I thought you’d be hoping for an Ortiz
No lock on Ortiz HOF yet… sadly
I picked 2/23. I don’t see it ending before ST, but once that starts, both sides will realize that something actually does need to get worked out before they both start losing money. This might cause a late start to the season by a few days, but they could still work in the full slate.
Went with 2/23 as well for exactly the same reason
Maybe MLB TradeRumors Writers and fans could start a Hunger Strike (use same name song from Temple of the Dog as Anthem)
Just Kidding I Think. Desperate Times Call for Desperate Actions.
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Collectibles Fundraiser. All legit nobody gets scammed on all sides.
Come Together America Tour!!!. We Can Work It Out. All Together NOWWWWWWW!!!
Lets’ Work Together TeamWork. Leadership. – Imagine That?
And In the End The Love You Take is Equal to the Love you Make – All You Need is LOVE
Hunger strike is an amazing song
It’s good but not amazing.
It’s something about Vedder and Cornell’s voices together
I dont see February 30th 2022.
When you go into the comments thinking of making a stupid joke but some other idiot beat you to it…
You know the internet doesn’t actually REQUIRE you to be a pile of garbage to people online.
But in the scenario I described, i was a fellow idiot. Sorry if that didn’t come through clearer.
I went with Valentine’s Day, when everyone will be feeling the love (and also it’s the day before pitchers & catchers start reporting I think).
Same. Both sides will begin to feel pressure at that point and they’ll want to get ready for first games on 2/26. I can see them working through the weekend and putting out the press release on Monday the 14th.
When both sides begin to feel pressure..ha! Owners aren’t feeling much pressure. Especially not come February. Maybe some more come June, but they are counting on the players cracking before then.
Buckle in for a long wait. There’s little likelihood to be any baseball in April. Soonest is likely to be mid May, with games beginning in June. But with enough stubborn disagreement, they could play chicken past any date to salvage a 2022 season. It would be really dumb, but possible.
Neo, I think you underestimate how much owners abhor losing money. They already did in 2020. A lack of baseball, whether due to a strike or lockout, can cause lower turnout for years after its resolved. I can totally see a delayed start to a season, but I have a hard time seeing fewer than 150 games played. Owners and players will dig in and posture for a bit, but once money starts being lost and they estimate how much revenue will go down and for how long if they keep bickering, they’ll find middle ground as if by magic.
Owners can suffer short term loss for long term gain much easier than the players.
You are right that they have their limits too, but they are counting on the logic that their resolve is stronger than the players’. And the players know this, and prepare themselves to wait just as long as the owners can. And the owners recognize this and encourage themselves to be patient. And that’s how you get absolutely no talks ongoing as each side waits for the other to blink.
The real question is how much money will owners lose with each day of spring training that is canceled. Spring training has become an expected source of income for owners to the point where they will feel the pain financially with even a slight delay. Although the players depend on spring training to get in baseball shape, I doubt they lose any money if a few weeks are canceled. A deal should be reached by the second week of March when the owners realize they are risking the entire spring if they don’t agree.
Second week of March means the season will be delayed. They’ll need a month to five weeks from there. They’ll need an agreement by third week of February if they want the season to start on time.
Even by 3rd week of Feb, there might be a delay. They’d have to give guys 3-4 days to report, so they’d be starting a week and a half late for pitchers and catchers. After what the shortened ‘summer training’ did in 2020 with injuries, I don’t think the players are keen on repeating that mistake. They could, however, work in a few DH’s and still manage the full 162 game season.
Fully expect a delay at this point. Some teams don’t even have full rosters yet.
That is a good point.
You think that the money they are trying to control by setting attractive terms in a new cba contract to influence future decades of profits is going to be bent by their desire for spring training profits??
That would be like stopping to pick up change on the sidewalk on your way to meet your appointment deadline to accept a billion dollars in lottery winnings. The owners are often greedy, but not usually that foolish.
The damage that a delayed season could cause to the MLB fanbase is another huge factor to consider. They aren’t just stopping on the side of the road to pick up change on their way to accepting a billion dollars, they are insuring that the billion dollars will be there when they arrive. If the season is delayed it will have lasting repercussions far greater than the revenue from spring training games lost.
From an article i just read after I posted:
“This again plays into the leverage that players may have right now. Spring training games at sites in Arizona and Florida have become a profit center for teams, and they don’t want to lose those games. Players, meantime, don’t start getting checks until the regular season begins.”
Owners won’t care until March when spring games start and they will posture for a week acting like it isn’t important before caving and arriving at a deal. Players have their own facilities for getting ready the first 3-4 weeks of spring especially pitchers so they won’t need more than 3 weeks of spring training before the season starts. It isn’t ideal but my guess is that the owners know that is the deadline for reaching a deal before the regular season gets delayed.
End of April would be (and was) my pick. Owners don’t make squat before May/June in most markets sans opening day.
It’d be pretty funny if it happened on April 1st.
Yeah, that would be some kind of joke.
Players do, though. And even though gate sales are down in the northern part of the country, there’s still ad and TV/radio revenue. My cynical side thinks you might be right, but optimistic me says it’ll be done shortly after ST was scheduled to start.
They make money. National TV contracts won’t pay, local TV revenue will take a hit. Season-ticket sales will take a big hit. Fan annoyance will play out into the season. Their revenue does escalate throughout the season, but they will lose revenue, and since the owners have locked out the players, the MLBPA will demand contracts be paid in full with the new deal.
Not saying you’re wrong, but losing additional money after 2020 won’t be the preferred action.
… Help Military (active/retired)/VA organizations and First Responders, people with medical bills from conditions like cancer also
The second Tuesday in the week of Feb. 14.
Just want to take a moment to acknowledge some of the great content you all have been creating while in the lockout. The Hidden Gems with BB/K article and the Transaction Retrospection on the Roberto Clemente Rule 5 Pick, are just a few pieces from the last few days that have been great. And this Lockout Lottery is awesome too. Keep up the awesome work MLBTR.
I agree. I actually joined their Trade Rumors Front Office as a small acknowledgment of the work they have to do when clicks and dollars are reduced. I mean, we diehards remain, but the bulk of visitors never post and likely aren’t even visiting in the same volume.
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You know you can just reply to yourself
March 10th. 69th day of the year.
Wish I could post a Bill & Ted gif here of:
Ted: Okay, if you guys are really us, what number are we thinking of?
Future Bill and Future Ted:
SIXTY-NINE, DUDE!!!
2/2/22 that’s a fun date
The 1994 strike ended the day before 1995 opening day so I’ll go with 3/30.
Some of us are losing ground to father time. Remember us that are departed when the lockout ends several years from now and some of us don’t live to see another MLB game ever played………..
Beware the Ides of March!
The link to enter the contest isn’t working Tim.
Seriously, how are you guys entering the contest? Maybe it’s me but that link hasn’t been qorking for me since I first tried about 15 mins ago. I restarted my phone and same thing…
Qorking or working…
What happens when you click this link?
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScikM1u9PvIFmg55w…
Nothing happens.
Am I the only one having a problem?
I’m not sure. We have over 1,000 successful entries at this point. If you want to send me a message through the site’s contact form we could try to figure it out.
mlbtraderumors.com/contact
Worked for me. Desktop web browser.
I mean, literally nothing happens – it doesn’t recognize it as a link. My phone is working fine otherwise; I am able to click on Reply and other links…
Thanks BlueSkies. It worked on the desktop browser.
Thanks Tim but I was able to get in using the desktop. Still won’t work on my phone; it’s an Android FWIW.
I am guessing around 5 April. MLB players aren’t interested in Spring Training and already have an over inflated opinion of themselves. The owners will need to lose a couple million each to take the work stoppage seriously.
The only people that are getting hurt are the FANS!
I’m a fan, but if they don’t play, I’ll find other things to do. MLB isn’t the only thing I’m a fan of.
02/19/22.
I wonder what happens to minor league spring training if the start of major league camp is delayed. Technically the minor league players aren’t locked out, but it seems unlikely the teams would open their spring training facilities just for them. Just another possible pressure point for both sides to get this done before it becomes an issue. Not that I’m an optimist on the season starting on time.
I would have to agree that the owners won’t open up spring training until there is a new CBA in place.
The Ides of March which will add a new meaning to “Et tu Brute” from the owners point of view. Season will start on May 1st, shortened to 140 games.
Instead of negotiations Manfred and Tony Clark should have a Billy Madison style decathlon where each event pertains to a specific issue in CBA negotiations and whoever wins the event gets their preferred solution of that specific issue. For example a game of blindfolded horseshoes could determine the luxury tax limits or a round of paintball could decide when a player is able to reach free agency.
Sure the outcome would probably be terrible for the game but let’s be honest and assume that the result of the negotiations will be terrible also. I mean, neglecting fundamental issues with the game until the CBA is set to expire then heaping all grievances from both sides on the table and trying to hammer out a deal in two or three months isn’t exactly a recipe for success. At least my fantasy decathlon can be televised, tickets can be sold to watch it live and it will be entertaining.
If they work in a round of javelin catching I’m totally up for that.
I chose a good round number 2/22/22
Your writers work tirelessly?
HAAAA!
Is that why there’s such horrible typing?
Be happy people read these poorly typed articles!
You’re always free to go elsewhere, but almost everywhere has typos. It’s not incompetence or laziness; it’s people being busy. Plus, when you read what you wrote, you often go blind on it because you know what it’s supposed to say.
For me, I come here for the analysis, not for every word being spelled perfectly. If you want that, go to a dictionary site.
Are you upset they use more than one sentence per paragraph?
Ha – nice catch!
Rob Manfried will wake up on 2/2 and see his shadow, declaring the lockout over.
He will gopher broke?
We’re stuck in Ground Hog Day without Bill Murray and Andie McDowell unfortunately.
The Song on the Clock Radio that keeps repeating is _____________ Ideas???
Argh Good Grief
John Fogerty – Centerfield of course
“Take Me Out To The Ballgame…”
Tim Dierkes, I tried to enter the contest, when I hit Click Here, it comes up, website not available.
Don’t know if you have an android phone, but someone above had a similar issue. Tried it on a desktop browser and it worked fine for them.
You guys are doing great in this situation! Much better than the MLB app imo
Is Smarch still available?
At this point, it’s going to be February 30th.
I don’t think it’ll be this long but I need to get my cubs tix for May 21st. Whenever they go on sale. First time going to Wrigley since the remodel. Finally get to go to my uncles pizza place. And now he has a new one opening with a new sauce and new crispy cracker crust.
I went with March 1. It’s enough to create considerable drama in the news, which is what MLB wants (to be newsworthy) and it’s going to sting the players enough to cause them to be more willing to negotiate while also hurt the owners because of a loss of ticket sales in ST as well as the looming threat of cratering attendance, which is what happened in 1995, after the last strike, which resulted in MLB artificially injecting interest into the game with the HR Chase.
Timeline
January 21: Two parties reach an impasse.
February 1: Two parties ramp up negotiations.
February 15: Two parties cry foul at the others, tactics.
February 27: Two parties hammer out a deal they both equally hate, lockout officially ends March 1.
March 1-March 7: Teams start studying new CBA in an attempt to spot loopholes and begin shaping their approach.
March 7-14: Slough of last minute megadeals.
March 14: Pitchers and catchers report.
March 21: Spring Training begins.
April 14: Season begins. Season is shortened to 154 games to compensate for late start.
Basic tenants of new CBA: No more service clock manipulation. Foreign signed players and US prep picks reach FA at age 28. Collegiate players at age 29. UDFA after five years. Basic salary floor that threatens no one. Luxury tax increased to 220 with subsequent increases every year. Draft pick compensation largely matches what is currently being used. International draft instituted for Latin American players. Deal with Japanese and Korean players remains in place. Draft pick lottery to prevent tanking. Universal DH. Playoffs expanded to seven teams. In game play changes a little: bases are slightly larger to encourage stealing and prevent collisions. Pitch clock instituted. Batters to keep one foot in box at all times. Baseball parameters are tightened up to prevent artificially inflated HR totals. Parameters in the infield shift, shortstop and second baseman can’t play on opposite side of 2B. Extra innings begin normally, but at 12th inning, runner starts at 1B. 13th inning, runner at 2B. 14th inning runner at 3B. Double headers are shortened to 7 innings.
U have way to much time on your hands
When I click the link. It says web page not found. Anyways, I’ll just guess here. 4/20
This might be the best place to ask. As I said above. Planning a trip to Wrigley this year. General admission, does that mean first come first serve? Didn’t realize cubs tix would be so expensive. Should’ve known I guess Ricketts jacked the prices up building that stupid hotel.
Link didn’t work on the app!
Visited website the link worked there!
I picked 2/14. The love in the air will have an effect…..
March 14 at 1:59 and 26 seconds. Approximately.
3/22, skull and bones day
I ho early don’t think it’s gonna end before summer
I’m predicting March 11 because this prediction can only fail once, as opposed to my annual Ron Herbel-like batting average on free agents.
Ron Herbel in 1968: 28 games, 0-0 record with 0 saves and, of course, 0 hits in three official at-bats (all strikeouts). What would he earn in this modern marketplace?
One year at league minimum with the Marlins.
I went with April Fool’s Day.
jimdevinmoriah
I can not enter my pick. when I click on the link, this what I get.
Webpage not available
The webpage at intent://forms.gle/jRBJx2va3zHa7nMw6#Intent;package=com.google.android.gms;action=com.google.firebase.dynamiclinks.VIEW_DYNAMIC_LINK;scheme=https;S.browser_fallback_url=https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScikM1u9PvIFmg55w9CglaDf81QBHpi0SKEPEFwVqR5-nrTEA/viewform%3Fusp%3Dsend_form;end; could not be loaded because:
net::ERR_UNKNOWN_URL_SCHEME.
Can some one help?
Suggestion: Since Scott Shum is the winner of the first half of the off-season, MLBTR should go “Bowie Kuhn in ’81” by declaring a second-half winner for the remaining free agents. The two winners would then square off for the overall championship. The tie-breaker? Since Stripes is a movie from Bowie’s year, let them mud wrestle for the title. It could be MLBTR’s first pay-per-view event. T-shirts, betting, the possibilities are endle$$ and in the true spirit of modern baseball.
I figured about a week after spring training game would start on feb 26. That put it on the third so i pushed it forward to next monday and settled there. I feel good that it would wrap up before then, My next best guess would be a week after players report. I had hoped it would be wrapped up in january but no meetings appear to be scheduled and they cant even agree on the dh which both sides want.
Mid June agreement, mid July start. Then tons of injuries.
2-27
It looks like you can enter more than once. What’s to stop someone from entering every day of the year?
Not booking any spring training trip this year.
Since they’re all fools, I went with April 1st.
My pick: March 2nd
I guesses 3/31. Most of way more hopeful. I hope you’re right.
Can people please stop saying “Player x will sign with team y because he’s from there/went to college there?” Thanks.
Easy pick: 6-1-22 or later.
Solution:
Fire Manfred.
Ditch the players.
The owners should randomly select a local little league team each year and have them play instead of these “professional athletes$,
It would be a whole heck of a lot more fun than watching these arseholes strike out at $10K/swing.
Bring the fun back to baseball!
I’ve been in support of replacing players with robots. Then we wouldn’t see players signing big contracts only to blow out their arm and not play for the season. Or have a player running to first and injure himself for the rest of the season. If the robot is damaged, have him repaired and ready for the next game. Done.
The game of baseball is being destroyed by greed, and you want to make a game out of it. Poor form.
Looks like you can enter as many times as you want ??
Post the plot of what lottery dates were picked. It will wiki source the probable dates
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