While news of minor league deals, international signings, and coaching hires continue to trickle in, much of the baseball fandom has stayed engaged thanks to one thing: speculation. For weeks, fans and writers have used what information they can gather during MLB’s lockout to predict what the next CBA will look like, which free agents will sign where, and who is going to draw the most trade buzz. With little in the way of breaking news many of us have shifted gears towards thinking about the future, though now seems as optimal a time as any to reflect on the past.
Five years ago in December 2016, the baseball hot stove was cranked all the way up. Outside of one day in the beginning of the month, it’s easy to hail 2016’s closing month as more consistently action-packed with baseball news than the December we just experienced. In fact, December of 2016 was so rife with moves that MLBTR crafted a poll, titled “Dubious December Decisions“, asking readers which recent move they found to be the most questionable.
Several contentious baseball moves were made five Decembers ago, but for the poll’s sake we zeroed in on three: The Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton, in which they surrendered then-prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning; the Rockies’ decision to sign outfielder/shortstop Ian Desmond to a 5-year $70MM deal and play him at first base, forfeiting the 11th overall pick in the amateur draft; and the Yankees’ decision to sign Aroldis Chapman to a record 5-year, $86MM deal.
Nearly 15,000 people voted in this 2016 poll and ranked the moves as follows, with higher vote percentages representing the most skepticism:
- Adam Eaton to Nationals (50%)
- Ian Desmond to Rockies (32.2%)
- Aroldis Chapman to Yankees (13.1%)
- Other (3.6%)
The Eaton deal proved far and away the most head-scratching by voters, who questioned why the Nationals would surrender some of their best prospects for a right fielder when a certain Bryce Harper already had the position covered. Advocates of the deal on the Nationals side were quick to point out that Giolito, the headlining prospect of the deal, didn’t look very promising in his first Major League action during the 2016 season. Eaton, meanwhile, was signed to an affordable contract through the 2021 season, averaged a 119 OPS+ and 5.3 bWAR in the three seasons prior to the deal, and could play center field until there was a vacancy in right field (hint: there was).
Early returns for the Nationals side of the deal didn’t seem as terrible as many feared. Eaton struggled to stay healthy, but was productive offensively, slashing .288/.377/.425 (109 OPS+) in his first three seasons in the NL. Giolito went on to have his worst minor league season in 2017 and gave up the most earned runs of any pitcher in 2018. Lopez generally struggled across those three years out of the White Sox rotation, outside of a decent 2018 showing, while Dunning pitched well, albeit exclusively in the minor leagues.
The past couple of years have quite handily tipped the trade in Chicago’s favor however. The right-handed Giolito turned a sharp corner entering the 2019 season, and has now garnered Cy Young consideration every year since his ’19 emergence. Lopez has had trouble with consistency, but is coming off a season that saw him pitch out of the bullpen at times to post a cumulative 3.43 ERA. Dunning, meanwhile, was the key piece in the trade that sent Lance Lynn from Texas to Chicago.
Eaton saw his production crater in 2020 and ultimately had his 2021 option bought out by the Nationals. Adding some insult to injury, Eaton ended up signing with the White Sox as their regular right fielder before last season. Eaton’s 2021 Chicago tenure didn’t last long, as he managed 58 games before being designated for assignment. He latched on with the Angels for a spell but couldn’t quite reignite the abilities that made him such a trade commodity back in 2016. He’s now in a state of limbo while he mulls retirement.
While the young pieces surrendered in the Eaton trade make that deal seem the most regrettable in hindsight, a win-now Nationals club benefitted from Eaton when they needed him most. In the 2019 World Series that the team would go on to win, Eaton slashed an incredibly useful .320/.433/.560 with two home runs and a steal for good measure. Neither the Rockies or Yankees have taken home a World Series trophy in the past five years, though it’s hard to attribute their 2016 deals as the reason for that common distinction.
Unlike the Eaton deal, the Desmond deal largely proved a sunk cost from the very beginning. In his first year in Colorado, Desmond was unable to match his All-Star form in Texas, slashing .274/.326/.375 while learning a new position. Desmond produced a 20-20 season in 2018, but his accompanying OPS+ of 83 left a lot to be desired from a first baseman in Coors Field. Desmond shifted to the outfield full time in 2019 and again chipped in 20 homers, though his offensive and defensive contributions were consistently regarded below average.
Desmond has since opted out of the two most recent seasons, owing to pandemic conditions and a desire to be with his family. The Rockies bought out an option on Desmond’s contract in November, sending him to free agency and potentially spelling an end to the respected veteran’s Major League career.
While the Desmond contract was a misstep for the Colorado front office, it can be argued that they weren’t “$14MM and a better first baseman” away from being championship contenders at any point during Desmond’s tenure. The front office gambled on an All Star’s upside and it didn’t quite pan out, only costing money— mostly.
The Rockies aren’t entirely off the hook for this deal yet considering they surrendered a high draft pick to dream on Desmond. Few can be sure who the Rockies would have selected with the 11th overall pick in 2017, of course, or how the player would have developed in Colorado’s farm system. Still, it may sting Rockies fans to know that All-Star Marlins pitcher Trevor Rogers was taken two picks after the sacrificed pick, at 13th overall. The rest of the first round has yet to produce any All-Stars, though it does feature a number of highly regarded prospects, including touted Royals first base prospect Nick Pratto.
The Yankees portion of the poll is much more cut and dry review-wise than the first two deals. Fans didn’t think the Yankees would regret this deal as much as the other clubs and they were proven correct.
Chapman has been as advertised, flashing erratic control in his first three seasons in pinstripes but combining it with lights out stuff. The flame-throwing closer comes with baggage and has a habit of making things interesting, but he’s been so effective that the Yankees reached a new agreement with Chapman back in 2019, keeping him in the fold through the 2022 season. Since signing that contract extension, Chapman has pitched to a 3.31 ERA with an elite 41.3% strikeout rate that largely makes up for an unenviable 14.6% walk rate. Even if Chapman struggles next season, it’s hard to say New York hasn’t already come out ahead on their partnership with the closer.
All that said, our readers proved that informed speculation can age quite well. Flags will fly forever in D.C., but it’s surely a tough pill for a retooling Nats club to swallow now that every one of their traded prospects has proved valuable elsewhere. But what do you think? Do you feel like the Rockies’ deal should have garnered the distinction of being the most questionable? After all, even if the Nationals overpaid to acquire Eaton, one could argue it was a more logical decision than signing a non-first baseman as a first baseman. Or perhaps you have another deal from December ’16 that you feel deserves more head-shaking and finger-wagging. Be sure to let us know in the comments!
In hindsight, the Mets extending Céspedes for 4 yrs/$110M was probably up there for big mistake made.
Hindsight being 20/20, absolutely. The Mets did well to limit the pact to 4 years at the time, and did recoup some money after The Boar Incident. Still, tough luck situation all around.
If my math is right, following the grievances, the Mets ended up paying him $80.4 million and saved almost $30 million. But he only put up 2.9 WAR over those four seasons and played 127 games total. Terrible deal.
Mets Paid Cespedes
22.5 in 17
29 in 18
14.8 in 19
331k in 20
15.1 (19-20)
51.5 (17-18)
=
66.6mil
Ah, ok. My initial googling had him at $22.9 in 2019 and $6 million in 2020. I see now you’re correct. Even with those lower numbers, it’s still pretty terrible, though!
Bobby Bonita is holding his beer! That’s robbery!
I’m hindsight people can’t even remember how they felt in 2016. Just search Ian Desmond Rockies, click article and read comments. You might find your own name in the comments saying something what turned out to be ridiculous. If more people did that they’d probably be less opinionated.
If you read a majority of the comments like I did you’ll notice a majority of the people thought it was a good move at the time for the Rockies. Anytime a non playoff team gives up a pick for a free agent it’s usually terrible.
Nah… most informed baseball fans questioned the move at the salary ignoring his positional switch, but once you add the switch it becomes highly dubious. While he had been decently valuable over the previous seasons in TX and WSH, it was mostly for his defense and not his bat. 18.6 bWAR (ignoring 2009 season) over 7 years is not particularly great (not bad either) and a 99 combined OPS+ shapes up for a terrible first baseman (ask Eric Hosmer). And he was 30 too. He’s the type of player at the time of signing who you shore up the SS position until a prospect comes up to hide his “weak” bat.
This whole fangraphs article is proof against you both in the comments and the article (although the article is more hopeful). Funny enough the bad case scenario in the article comes true.
blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-get-weird-ian-desmond-is-…
I wanted the bosox to sign Eaton that winter. Glad that didn’t happen.
Great article.
My belief is that each year more teams review the results of long-term FA signings as well as trades involving high-priced players, and become more careful.
As for the moves:
o Desmond was a terrible defensive SS with the Nationals – but he could hit well for a SS. The Rockies had SS’s so they used Desmond in other positions. He didn’t mash like a highly paid 1B and appeared to be overpaid. In turn the Nationals replaced Desmond when they stole Trea Turner from the Padres – and while it took time for him to mature he immediately upgraded their defense at a key position which helped their Pitchers out.
o Yes the Eaton trade has turned out one-sided, but the Nationals did win a WS with him as an important cog for the team. It’s why contending teams trade prospects for veterans. So I mark it down as a win-win.
o The Chapman signing easily turned out the best.
It does not sound as bad if you say Padres traded
Trea Turner, James Shields, Fernando Rodney, Eric Lauer, Luis Urias, David Bednar and Hudson Head,
in return for
Fernando Tatis, Jr., Wil Myers, Chris Paddack, Zach Davies, Trent Grisham and Joe Musgrove.
You win some, you lose some.
Personally, I really hated the trade of Luis Patino and Mejia, Hunt and Wilcox, in return for Blake Snell (11.1, million for 2021, 13.1 million for 2022, and 16.6 million for 2023) who came at a high salary, and, like everyone, the free agent signing of Eric Hosmer.
By 2023, I think Patino will be better than Snell.
So I do not think Preller is quite as bad as I read on this site, but I still only give him a C-. Tatis saved him form an “F”. The team has acquired oft-injured pitchers maybe it is penance for Preller after trading Pomeranz.
@ MannyBeingMVP;
I don’t believe that each trade or FA signing makes an offseason or a team. It’s silly to compare as one doesn’t know the players on the teams roster that are locked up for years, or where the team is in the process of being a contender.
However, Trea Turner was a pretty unique get. That was a part of a 3-way trade that would have gone through as 2 trades were Turner not involved. At the time it was made FO’s were genuinely shocked that Preller would trade away Turner (and his years of control) for what the Padres received. It was one of those trades where other GM’s say something like: “If I knew he was available I’d have given them far more”. The thing about Preller is – he does that not only in trades, but in the long-term contracts he hands out as well. To put it mildly, he doesn’t make measured, well thought out moves.
Wil Myers was a promising rookie of the year in 2013. In May 2014, Myers suffered a wrist fracture and he has never looked as good again, although his 2016 All-Star season and 2020 short campaign were both pretty good. The trade was after Myers injury so the Padres had the benefit of seeing his dismal 2014 campaign. I have to assume that Preller thought Myers would become a star because, as you say, he would have had plenty of seemingly better offers for Trea Turner.
But again, some pretty good gets with Tatis Jr. and Musgrove. If I were the Padres, I would move on to a new GM, but I have seen worse. Really, the Hosmer signing bothers me much more. Hosmer could only play 1B. It never made sense.
Why does everyone always insult people as they can “only play 1B?” There has never been a single play on a baseball diamond in history where there was not a 1B on the field. And it really does become noticeable when a team doesn’t have a good one.
Because it’s the least valuable defensive position (along with LF) and just about anybody can play it. What’s hard to understand? Being only able to play that one position is a handicap, especially if your not a particularly good hitter.
The Tatis trade is the only reason Preller isn’t working at Sizzler right now.
Cosm2: I agree & disagree w your assessment of 1B being the “least valuable defensive position”. It is the position that (most) MLB players could play “in a pinch”. However, if you looked closer you’d notice how “valuable” a very good or excellent first baseman really is. For all of the highlight players we see from SS & 3B look at how many of those throws are picked by the first baseman. There’s a reason guys feel they can let the ball fly from any & all angles. It’s because they’ve got confidence in the guy at the other end.
I see what you’re saying but everything I read about on the subject says otherwise. Scooping balls in the dirt isn’t really a particular skill as pretty much all players do it without thinking and one player generally isn’t better than another. This isn’t some eye test thing, it’s what I read, mostly from Bill James, I’m guessing. Stats just don’t show players to be particularly good or bad at this skill, despite reputations that say otherwise. In short, the idea that first base is the least important position comes from analytical research, it’s not a guess.
Just to clarify, what I’m saying applies only to actual first baseman. Obviously you’ve a point when it comes to players out there “in a pinch” as their footwork might not even be sound. Yet still, first base just isn’t like other positions. No one is gonna be happy with a below average hitting first baseman no matter how good their fielding is.
After 2022, nobody will be thinking that the Padres won the Urias/Lauer-Grisham/Davies trade anymore.
Preller has gotten some steals in Cron and Tatis (and Musgrove), but it’s hard to tell if he really believed they would be stars or if it was just by accident. Was Cron just a throw-in to a deal that was about Pham? He was probably going to be left unprotected in the Rays roster crunch anyways, so they could have gotten him for nothing if they really wanted him. Relievers are traded for rookie ballers and A-Ball players all the time in the hopes that of the many trades made with them, one or more will pan out. Tatis was an unknown quantity when he was traded for. No one could’ve guaranteed he’d be a star. Was it pure luck or good development?
Besides from those two deals, Preller’s trade record is abysmal. He got Frazier for almost nothing, but Frazier wasn’t good. The Darvish deal looks really good right now, but we don’t know how the prospects will pan out, and the Padres probably could’ve gotten the production Darvish gave them in 2021 from FA. Grisham was a good get but the Padres were in a roster crunch and had to deal Urias or they would lose him for nothing. Lauer really would’ve helped them in 2021, and Urias could be better than Grisham by 2023 or earlier. None of the prospects gave up for Musgrove look promising, so the deal is mostly dealing from what was not a need (bullpen, Bednar) for Musgrove, and looks fair for all sides. The Snell deal was terrible, as was the Cleavinger, and dealing Reyes was a mistake in hindsight. Throw in Trea Turner, Matt Kemp (thanks a million for that one), etc.
Preller has made a few good deals, but I don’t think he’s a good POB. He might be good as a GM if he has a boss who is able to keep him in check and not let him do stupid moves.
Idk why I bothered to make this long of a response to something talking about the Padres, but I did, so thanks for reading.
The way I see it, Trea Turner and Tatis cancel each other out. He’s ahead on the Cronenworth deal for sure, though Edwards could still be something.
He can apparently accumulate young talent, but I think he’s lost every other trade and signing, and sometimes bigly.
Him acquiring Tatis Jr is the epitome of a blind squirrel finding a nut. Preller hasn’t been all bad, and I admire his effort to win, but when you make so many contrasting moves, it’s just hard to tell whether they got better or worse.
At the time, the Rockies deal seemed the worst. Eaton was a gamble and ended with little regret. The Desmond deal was like signing Realmoto or Correa and then playing them at 1B.
2021
Realmoto 17 HRs 0.263 avg. 0.782 OPS
Correa 26 HRs 0.279 avg. 0.850 OPS
Josh Bell 27 HRs 0.261 avg. 0.823 OPS
C.J. Cron 28 HRs 0.281 avg. 0.905 OPS
I would value Realmoto and Correa way above Bell and Cron. So would everyone not related by blood or marriage. Their salaries reflects that. But if Realmoto or Correa were moved to 1B, or all four played DH 100%, the difference is not very great. Desmond with a high salary at 1B was a waste, Rockies are lucky he eventually opted out, good for his family and good for their fans.
The problem with the Desmond deal was that he was a square peg on a team of round holes. He literally had no position when the Rockies signed him. They just really wanted to sign a big(?) Name player. Seemed like a similar situation the Red Sox got themselves in the season prior with Hanley Ramirez. Throw a bunch of money at him to sign with no idea what do with him.
The Nats got a ring and Eaton was a big part of that. While the cost seemed high at the time (and maybe still does) consider Dunning is no longer with the White Sox. Lopez has struggled and may have finally turned the corner thanks to eye surgery. Giolito has had the most success of the three.
Chapman’s struggles have come during his second contract with the Yankees and was practically lights out during the three year contract in question
While the article states that Giolito turned a corner in 2019, the 47 innings he pitched in 2017 were the best numbers he has posted career to date. He had a 181 ERA+ that year and a sub 3.00 ERA. 2018 was a disaster but there’s no question that the Nationals deal was by far the worst of these 3 deals, World Series or not. Eaton was not the difference maker on that championship team. The Nats could have waited a year and signed a free agent OF and probably would have seen the same results. Giving up 3 young, highly ranked pitching prospects for a slightly above average outfielder is never a good decision. Let’s hope the Marlins don’t make a similar mistake this offseason. I could see them offering two of their young pitchers plus a 3rd well-regarded prospect to pry Ketel Marte away from Arizona. If they decide to do that, they can’t include Max Meyer in that deal. All signs point to Meyer’s ceiling being an ace and his floor being a solid #3 starter. It would be a big mistake to deal Meyer in my opinion anyways.
The Desmond contract was awful, but he opted out of the last two years so it was mostly a monetary penalty. Who knows who they would have drafted but the 2016 draft was historically bad (the first round anyways).
Tooth:
I think you mean the 2017 draft, not 2016.
I agree about Meyer he has to be 100% off limits he’s the ace of that staff when he gets the call, he’s MLB ready right now. I think some folks may be over rating Ketel Marte. The Marlins are looking very good without another big addition to their OF. Stay as young as possible.
Only Soto and Rendon had a higher wRC+ than Eaton during that postseason, and only they and Howie had a higher WPA. The team had to have EVERYTHING break right to make it through from the wild card to the game 7 WS win. Eaton was one of only three players out of nine highest WAR players to even have an average offensive performance. And it is what actually happened. You can’t assume that they would have chosen someone else who would have done that.
I also heard some say that he was bad in the clubhouse in Chicago but, by all appearances and accounts, he played a big role in how loose everyone was during the Nats’ run to the WS.
These look backs are great.
I agree! Since business is slow it’s great to revisit these polls and see how the results played out.
Glad to see I’m not the only one who dislikes Jim Bowden after reading those comments.
Nice fun read this article was. The next article posted 5 years ago was on the top 10 remaining free agents. I can’t say many, or even any, of them turned out to be good deals.
That brings up an article idea about the top free agents in the past. It would be interesting to read where the top free agents signed 5-6 years ago and for how much money and if the contract turned out to be of value to the club.
You could have stopped at Flags Fly Forever. Someone said that Eaton was the most regrettable because the Nats could have signed an outfielder and still won the World Series. You all know it doesn’t work that way, especially when the underdog wins the way the Nats did. Only the set of circumstances that ACTUALLY OCCURRED led to the Championship, and no amount of wishing it away guarantees the Nats would have won without Eaton. Talk to me when Giolito leads the White Sox to be World Champs. Actually, talk to me once he has done it twice.
When I look at who the White Sox traded away, I continue to laugh at their ineptitude. Eaton, WS ring with Nationals. Sale, WS ring with Boston. Quintana, WS ring with Cubs. All the players received back, no rings. Please don’t tell me any of it was a win for the White Sox, as the Central was ripe for the picking, with only the Indians providing competition at that time. Here we are years later, and the CWS have maxed their payroll and cannot afford to add around this group of young, cost controlled players. How long before they repeat their mistake again.
I don’t believe Quintana was on the Cubs when the won the WS. I could be right though…
Totally agree. Just replied to that poster above.
Off topic, of course, but I wish they would add Jim Corsi to the “In Memoriam” section. He passed on January 4.
Thats a name i haven’t heard in a long time. Sorry to hear it.
Corsi was a big part of the Red Sox bullpen in 1997-98. R.I.P. Jim
Ahh, memories.
I’d just like to take a moment to vent on one decision that off-season that would only make this list in a contrived manner: Jays signed Morales mid-November and Cleveland bought Edwin the first week of January …which nets out to December.
Hindsight tells us (if the stories of $80MM guaranteed offers are true) that neither of those deals should have occurred. Encarnacion should have been a Jay, as it turns out, for the rest of his days as a player.
It’s as true now as it was in 2016: The Rockies gotta Rockie.
The Rockies deal with Desmond didn’t really pay off, but the investment is minimal as he opted out of the last two seasons. I’m torn on the Nats deal. The talent loss was big but they also have a championship. For the most part, the voters seem to have it right.
BTW Why does the Athletic allow comments on their purchase by the NYT, but MLBTR shut their thread down? Stop being afraid of comments, no matter how unpleasant. It only exasperates the problem.
re: Closed commentary
If you have ever noticed when commenting is closed, it is almost always because people aren’t being …civilized.
I think a “Commenting Closed” disclaimer should be put up on the thread and the content that led to the decision left for all to see. That way, idiocy can be better recognized and the baseball nuggets that are invariably interspersed throughout the nonsense can still be accessed.
@kodion, I think that’s an excellent suggestion. People could at least see why it had degenerated to such a point that comments had to be closed, and we could all see who are worst offenders.
Dare I ask what gets people so up in arms about that? Seems like a non-charged thing to me, but then it is the internet and it is America right now…
I actually didn’t mind the Desmond signing back then, playerwise. The dollar amount was too high, but it’s not like he HAD to play 1B. He had shown versatility on Texas, so I though of him more like a Kike Hernandez type. Didn’t work out in the end.
Evaluating trades in a vacuum without looking at everything, including every teams situation at the time of a trade, is not very accurate.
The problem for the Nats in the Eaton trade was that Eaton got hurt. Averaging over 150 games and 690 PAs the two years before the trade, he only played in 118 games with 477 PAs over the next two seasons combined. While the injuries sapped his baserunning and defensive abilities, he posted the two highest wRC+ of his career.
The injuries turned it into a ‘bad’ deal, but his contributions to the Nats WS can’t be discounted.
More bad luck than bad deal.
On the White Sox side, they had no intention of contending for the next three years. Eaton had no value for them, and it really didn’t matter much what the prospects did for them until 2020.
Consider this…
If things had worked differently….if Eaton had remained healthy and Giolito was the one who got hurt, (and pitchers have a higher attrition rate), we’d be looking back on this trade a lot differently.
One more thought on this kind of trade…
If a team consistently looks four or five years ahead when it considers trades, it will never be a contender….because it will never make the moves necessary to contend.
As a Cubs fan, all of my 2016 thoughts center around the first title in 108 years. For me, nothing else mattered.
Better question…what you thought was the most relevant question posed by a MLBTR post in the past 5 days…
If my answer is “this one”, does that create some sort of paradox?
All Chapman was going to be was a slight underpayment or overpayment.
The Eaton trade could’ve worked Any time you trade prospects for a veteran, you usually lose, but you are doing so to try for a WS.
IMO, Desmond had to be the worse because they had no position for him. All that happened is that they were forced to give him ABs that should’ve belonged to Parra and Reynolds,
I dont think a team trading prospects for long term (not rental) MLB production usually loses.
Values three years after a trade mean very little to the team in contention mode.
Just as any production from Eaton in the immediate years following the trade meant nothing to Chicago, production from the three prospects in the years immediately following the trade (which was minimal) meant nothing to Washington.
Following up further, the trade of prospects, including Dunning, for Lynn has worked out very well for Chicago, even of Dunning ends up winning a Cy Young three years from now.
Unless we are talking about tanking teams that have no plans to contend for half a decade, it is foolishness to spend more time planning for four or five years ahead, instead of concentrating on the present task of putting the best team possible on the field over the next three years.
That’s basically what I said. The Nats were trying for a WS. I get that. But that’s why I am okay with that trade. But the team trading the prospects usually loses value. It can be worth it certainly, but kids will return more WAR, at a cheaper price.
Odd how the White Sox have the best trade on this list and also the worst trade of that year, probably the decade.
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