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The Rangers Shouldn’t Ease Up After The Lockout

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2022 at 5:41pm CDT

Many teams effectively sat out the free-agent market prior to the lockout, and the Rangers took full advantage of the lack of activity from some of the sport’s top spenders. Led by longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, second-year GM Chris Young and an ownership group that clearly isn’t interested in a protracted rebuild, the Rangers doled out more than half a billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun. For most clubs, spending more than $500MM in free agency would seem a defensible point at which to call it a day, but if the Rangers are serious about returning to contention sooner than later, they’re not likely to be satisfied with, ahem, “just” Seager, Semien, Gray, etc.

The 2021 Rangers, to put things charitably, were a disaster. Texas lost 102 games and batted a combined .232/.294/.375. The resulting 84 wRC+ (indicating that their collective offense was 16 percent below league average) tied for the third-worst mark in MLB. Rangers hitters ranked 28th in total runs scored, 26th in home runs, 29th in walk percentage and dead last in on-base percentage.

If the Rangers boasted a deep and talented pitching staff, perhaps the additions of Seager and Semien alone would be enough to foster hope, but we know that’s not the case. Texas starters ranked 28th in the Majors in ERA (5.33) and FIP (5.19) alike — and that’s including the contributions of the since-traded Kyle Gibson, who provided 113 innings of 2.87 ERA/3.76 FIP ball.

The signing of Gray gives the Rangers a big arm on which they can dream, but Gray, Dane Dunning and Taylor Hearn are the only pitchers on the roster who reached 100 innings and posted even passable results. It’s questionable to even include Hearn in that trio, as nearly all of his success came out of the bullpen (5.82 ERA in the rotation versus 3.54 out of the ’pen in near-identical samples of innings). The only pitcher currently on the roster who posted an ERA better than Dunning’s 4.55 out of the rotation last season is right-hander A.J. Alexy, who logged a 2.79 ERA in 19 1/3 innings but also walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out (13 walks, 14 punchouts).

Things are a bit rosier in the bullpen, where Texas will welcome back injured closer Jose Leclerc, who missed 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. Impressive young righty Jonathan Hernandez is likely to return at some point in 2022 as well after missing this past season following his own Tommy John procedure. The Rangers can also look forward to full seasons from standout rookie Joe Barlow and NPB returnee Spencer Patton, who began the 2021 season in Triple-A but pitched effectively following his June call to the bigs.

Suffice it to say, even with the big splashes they’ve made to date, the Rangers don’t yet look like a contender. That’s not news to the Texas front office, which made these moves despite surely being aware that even if everything breaks right in ’22, they’re at best a long-shot to vie for a playoff berth.

That said, there’s already indication that the Rangers aren’t planning to take their foot off the gas when transactions resume. Texas has been linked to star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who has been posted by the Hiroshima Carp and will sign with an MLB club once the transaction freeze lifts. The Rangers were also reportedly looking into the asking price on division-rival star Matt Olson, and they chatted with the Reds about Cincinnati’s collection of available starting pitchers. Manager Chris Woodward even went so far as to acknowledge that the team has been in contact with free agent Clayton Kershaw — a Dallas-area resident who is a first-time free agent this winter.

Onlookers may question how the Rangers can afford this level of spending spree. However, Texas has gone to great lengths to pare its payr0ll in recent years, and rather than “rebuild” through three to five dismal seasons of tanking and cultivating draft picks, it seems the Rangers plan to instead use their fiscal might in conjunction with a pair of lofty draft statuses (2021 and 2022) in hopes of an accelerated retooling.

In terms of club payroll, the Rangers only have about $127MM committed to next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure will drop to around $80MM in 2023. For a club that has previously run payrolls as lofty as $165MM (in 2017), there’s a good bit of financial leeway for further additions — particularly those that could impact the roster beyond the 2022 season.

A multi-year deal for the 27-year-old Suzuki, for instance, makes good sense for a Texas club that currently figures to shuffle Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun and Eli White through left field and DH at-bats. Texas is also among the more reasonable fits for 29-year-old lefty Carlos Rodon, who was one of the best pitchers on the planet in 2021 but ended the year with some troubling shoulder concerns. Agent Scott Boras — who also represents both Seager and Semien — has said Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal. We’ve seen the Rangers issue some surprising three-year deals in the past (e.g. Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Gibson) — albeit in the $30MM range, which is likely a good ways south of where Rodon is aiming. Trade candidates like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez and other starters with multiple years of control should also be squarely in the Rangers’ sights, particularly if any are amenable to extensions.

Relatively youthful free agent pitchers and trade targets with multiple years of club control (and/or an openness to an extension) will be paramount, given the lack of high-end pitching prospects knocking on the door in Arlington. This past season’s No. 2 overall draft pick, Jack Leiter, could be a fast mover but has yet to throw a professional pitch. Righty Cole Winn, a 2019 first-rounder, briefly reached Triple-A last season and could eventually give the team a mid-rotation arm. That’s about the extent of the team’s high-upside pitching prospects who are at least within striking distance of the big leagues, so pairing some veterans with Gray and Dunning will be crucial if Texas hopes to turn things around come 2023.

Around the diamond, things are a bit more steady. Adding Seager and Semien gives the team a pair of lineup linchpins, and top prospect Josh Jung should debut in 2022, pushing slick-fielding Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a utility role in which he could thrive. There’s room for a bat like Suzuki in left field, as previously alluded to, and the team’s interest in Olson suggests a willingness to upgrade over Nate Lowe at first base (or at least to push Lowe to a DH role). Catcher Jonah Heim has a brutal season at the dish in 2021, but the Rangers are hoping prospect Sam Huff can eventually seize that spot.

By 2023, the Rangers will be free of the dead-money commitments owed to Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. The only arbitration raise of any note slated for the 2023 payroll (and for the 2022 payroll, for that matter), is that of Kiner-Falefa. Semien, Seager and Gray are the only three players whose ’23 salaries are guaranteed. You can argue that it’s wiser to wait until next offseason, but if that were the plan, the team wouldn’t have already spent to the extent it has. To give their aggressive mindset the best chance to succeed, the Rangers should add at least one more arm and one more bat to the mix. They certainly have the payroll capacity to do just that.

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MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers

Braves, A’s Discussed Matt Olson Prior To Lockout
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64 Comments

  1. statman

    3 years ago

    Just looked at Corey Seager’s lifetime stats again and in a word, summed him up based on his recent mega-deal … OVER-RATED!!!

    10
    Reply
    • MLB Top 100 Commenter

      3 years ago

      Not over-rated just over-paid.

      1
      Reply
      • Steve Nebraska

        3 years ago

        I can’t believe the Rangers paid him $325 million. Didn’t they learn from A-Rod?

        9
        Reply
        • Deleted Userr

          3 years ago

          @Steve Nebraska A-Rod’s Rangers contract worked out gloriously for them. It was the extension with the Yankees that ended up being a problem.

          Reply
        • BeansforJesus

          3 years ago

          I’m glad Steve Nebraska is back. It’s nice to think Brendan Fraser comes to MLBTR. You probably like that Tom Cruise version of The Mummy.

          1
          Reply
        • RobM

          3 years ago

          The first A-Rod deal was even better for the Yankees as the Rangers were paying a significant chunk of his salary.

          Times and revenue sources are different. This Ranger team and ownership group can afford Seager’s contract and others.

          Reply
    • Peg2

      3 years ago

      You’re just jealous that your team didn’t sign him.

      13
      Reply
      • iverbure

        3 years ago

        Why would anyone be jealous a last place team with no business signing a guy like that? Nobody should be afraid of the rangers in fact they should want them to spend more money it will just set their rebuild back further.

        2
        Reply
        • madmanTX

          3 years ago

          So a team with a need to get better has no business signing a top free agent? Huh. You must think that the only way to succeed is to tank for five years, get top draft picks and maybe buy a few trash cans?

          8
          Reply
        • Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.

          3 years ago

          I was kind of thinking the same thing, iverbure. Corey Seager is a great player but the Rangers are a bad team and they just paid more for him than anyone else thought Seager was worth. A-Rod was a generational player (PED’s change his legacy but his on field performance was there) and the A-Rod contract really hurt the Rangers. The Rangers paid a player like A-Rod well under $252 million and it drastically hurt their franchise. Seager is no A-Rod and the same team just paid Seager $325 million? How are they going to be able to tolerate that payroll hit when they couldn’t tolerate A-Rod with much better production? I know that was a long time ago but the Rangers also gave old man Semien $175 million to boot. 7 years for Semien? That contract is going to end terribly.

          They spent like they were trying to push themselves over the top. In reality, these players are not going to be this good by the time the rest of the Rangers team is ready to compete. You can’t buy a championship when you are in last place. You have to get close first and then you can pay to push yourself over the top. If you want to win the world series, buying a core never works. You have to build the core and then buy the players to push them over.

          Homegrown talent is the Christmas tree. Free agents are only the ornaments. What’s the point of buying the ornaments when the tree isn’t even strong enough to hang them on? Unless of course their plan is to spend a ton of money just to hover around .500. See: Philadelphia Phillies.

          5
          Reply
        • Jordan09

          3 years ago

          Rangers head guy Ray Davis has already said money will NOT be an issue. They have the money to sign anyone they want

          Reply
    • lafitteslanding

      3 years ago

      I don’t agree. Corey Seager has been an above average defensive player at a premium position who is also a stud offensively. His steamer projected wOBA in 2022 is .371. Joey Gallo, for instance, is around 20 points lower while being a year older and not being a solid defensive shortstop.

      As for his injury situation, he lost time in 2021 to a broken bone in his hand, surely not a chronic injury. And he’s still only 27 years old.

      2
      Reply
  2. MLB Top 100 Commenter

    3 years ago

    If Rangers could sign Kershaw and Rodon they might hit 0.500 in 2022. But I think Kershaw will sign with Dodgers mid-season or retire.

    1
    Reply
    • stymeedone

      3 years ago

      They are both likely injured. Sign away!

      1
      Reply
  3. Vizionaire

    3 years ago

    Kenley Janson for 5/150!

    Reply
    • Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.

      3 years ago

      Blue Sky would agree with you. He also doesn’t seem to notice Jansen stepping up and down in between each pitch. He also says all of his balks are “probably intentional.”

      Reply
      • MLB Top 100 Commenter

        3 years ago

        I know you are exaggerating, but for those who don’t, Blue Sky has never suggested that Jansen will get that kind of money. The debate over whether Jansen balks is a real disagreement though and I see both sides of it.

        Reply
        • Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.

          3 years ago

          He did. I suggested Jansen wasn’t worth that kind of money and asked is anyone else agreed. Blue Sky’s response: “no, no and no.” I only suggested 2 questions and he gave three “no” answers. 3 no’s doesn’t leave a lot of room there for him to agree with my point that Jansen is projected to be overpaid. Not $150M but a multi-year deal that pays him double what Melancon makes or as much as a solid #2 or #3 starting pitcher.

          1
          Reply
  4. Jbigz12

    3 years ago

    500 million dollars for 4th place! Jon Daniels takes AJ Preller’s advice and buys too early!

    2
    Reply
    • 48-team MLB

      3 years ago

      Maybe…but the AL West is weaker than the NL West. Houston is solid and Seattle is on the rise but there are no Dodgers to compete with.

      Reply
  5. preauto

    3 years ago

    Olson and Kershaw and call it an off-season!

    1
    Reply
  6. Stevil

    3 years ago

    They’re well on their way to becoming the new Angels.

    2
    Reply
    • MLB Top 100 Commenter

      3 years ago

      Lot of similarity between Angels and Rangers here.

      The one difference to me is that I would pay money to see Ohtani, Trout and Rendon lose.

      I am not as sure about paying money to see Seager, Semien and Adolis. Certainly more fun to watch than the 2021 version.

      I think Astros and Mariners will finish 1 and 2 respectively in 2022.

      1
      Reply
      • 48-team MLB

        3 years ago

        Which sounds most entertaining to you?

        A) Braves over White Sox

        B) Braves over Mariners

        C) Braves over Astros again

        Reply
        • Edp007

          3 years ago

          Jays over Braves …. Again

          1
          Reply
        • 48-team MLB

          3 years ago

          @Edpoo7

          You act as if it’s a common theme for the Blue Jays to beat the Braves in the World Series. They’ve only played each other on that stage once and that was 30 years ago.

          1
          Reply
        • tstats

          3 years ago

          Braves aren’t making it all the way

          Reply
        • 48-team MLB

          3 years ago

          @tstats

          No one knows that for sure. People said the same thing last year.

          Reply
        • Edp007

          3 years ago

          True. Apologies. I was listening to Jethro Tull’s “Living in the Past”

          Reply
        • tstats

          3 years ago

          True but I don’t even see them as winning the division (I think the Mets *belches* are gonna find a way to stay healthy)

          Reply
      • Stevil

        3 years ago

        Trout and Ohtani are fun to watch, no doubt. Seattle still needs a pair of impact-bat and a starting pitcher for me to feel good about their chances this season, but their future is the most promising (in my opinion).

        Reply
  7. FredMcGriff for the HOF

    3 years ago

    I’ll go with D. Braves over Yankees.

    1
    Reply
  8. sss847

    3 years ago

    trade for kimbrel

    Reply
  9. rolandveras

    3 years ago

    Stay away from Rodon Rangers!
    Multi-year deal for a Pitcher that is always injured? That’s a TERRIBLE Idea.

    Reply
  10. LebronHatesAsians

    3 years ago

    They can def make some moves in the trade market now. Interesting they chose to trade Gibson and Gallo knowing they were going to go all out in the off-season.

    1
    Reply
    • LebronHatesAsians

      3 years ago

      Also wouldn’t be shocked if one or both of Kershaw and Greinke are signed.

      1
      Reply
    • BeansforJesus

      3 years ago

      Gibson is only controlled for another year and he didn’t help the “all in” Phillies. These free agent moves aren’t for immediate contention in 2022, they are to have quality veterans in place as the young guys work through things and fill in holes. Texas probably thinks Spencer Howard is more valuable to their eventual contention, which he is. Gallo is a free agent after 2022 as well. That trade was more about getting the most for a great first half rather than testing their luck in 2022 because a poor first half sinks his trade value. And if coupled with a great 2nd half, it makes the QO questionable from the teams perspective. I’m just saying how I see the moves, who knows what Texas was thinking.

      2
      Reply
    • stymeedone

      3 years ago

      @lebron
      You make the assumption that they actually had a plan.

      1
      Reply
  11. Cohens_Wallet

    3 years ago

    I’ll be unbiased about it and say don’t count out the Padres, Dodgers, Brewers,Phillies and Cardinals.

    1
    Reply
  12. Netflix&RichHill

    3 years ago

    youtu.be/ab6qjVwQl-o

    People might find this guy a little negative, but I think he’s kinda spot on

    1
    Reply
  13. JoeBrady

    3 years ago

    This is the first time I’ve ever seen a team try to buy a team from scratch. I think the Yankees spent about half-billion on the 2009 team, but they already had an 89-win team. I’m not seeing a .500 team yet.

    2
    Reply
    • 48-team MLB

      3 years ago

      I don’t think they expect to contend in 2022. That’s why they’re signing all these ridiculously long contracts. They’re hoping that they’re a true contender by 2024 or 2025.

      2
      Reply
      • Dustyslambchops23

        3 years ago

        Perfect, Seager will be 30 and Semien will be 35 by then

        Reply
        • JeffreyChungus

          3 years ago

          WHOA you’re telling me that in two years they’re gonna be two years older than they are now? Dusty you are easily the best and most insightful commenter on this site!!! I love how you are never wrong!!!

          1
          Reply
        • Dustyslambchops23

          3 years ago

          I’m wrong plenty of times.

          If you’re going to attempt humour and sarcasm atleast do a better job and make it funny

          Reply
        • Chester Copperpot

          3 years ago

          But that’s only for 2024. How old will they be in 2025?

          1
          Reply
        • Dustyslambchops23

          3 years ago

          I guess as an angel fan trolling is all you have so just carry on

          Reply
      • justinkm19

        3 years ago

        2023 is the plan. Next year better, 2023 playoffs. Infused with FAs and young talent in the minors on the brink.

        Reply
    • Yankee-4-Lifer 75

      3 years ago

      I’m just wondering who is going to actually pitch for the Rangers? Since their offense should be there.

      Reply
      • User 1104686089

        3 years ago

        Jack Leiter, John Gray, Cole Winn, Dane Dunning and some combination of Alexy, Hearn and Otto will be the rotation by 2023

        1
        Reply
  14. madmanTX

    3 years ago

    If the Rangers have the money to spend, then try to get all the talent you can afford and see what happens. Worst that happens is you put a team on the field that attracts fans who pay to watch them play. If the plan fails, then you can try a tank and draft plan like the Cubs and Astros. Maybe not cheat like the Astros did, but oh well.

    2
    Reply
  15. BeansforJesus

    3 years ago

    One thing I think this article overlooks is the fact the Rangers have a new stadium that was paid for, in part, with $500 million of tax dollars funds.

    As a business that got those funds with the B.S. of job/revenue creation for the area, you can’t roll out the end of 2021 lineup in 2022 and assume it won’t be a problem.

    4
    Reply
  16. Ducky Buckin Fent

    3 years ago

    I think the Rangers should follow the recent Yankee template of over-engineering the lineup/bench & bullpen, while cobbling together a starting staff. That’s a pretty good formula for regular season success.

    Add another bat or two.
    Sign a couple of: Tepera, Jansen, Chafin, Kelly, McHugh, Romo, etc. If they are in the postseason race at the deadline, address the rotation then.

    A productive lineup & a deep ‘pen can lead to a lot of wins, man.

    3
    Reply
    • Dustyslambchops23

      3 years ago

      I don’t see it just yet, on paper they are probably still the worst team in the division.

      1
      Reply
      • RobM

        3 years ago

        Agreed. This is still a sub-.500 team.

        Reply
        • 48-team MLB

          3 years ago

          74-88 in 2022

          Reply
        • Ducky Buckin Fent

          3 years ago

          Steady as she goes, fellas.

          I’m not anointing them as AL West favorites or whatever. I’m actually not even saying that they are currently a .500 team – although I think they are close to that.

          All I’m saying is that investing in their offense & bullpen would probably be the easiest/least expensive way (from this point) to get closer to a winning record.

          Like the article suggests they still have a ways to go. However: we will probably see some type of expanded playoffs coming out of the new CBA. So: add a few more players/upgrades, hope for a couple breakouts, & – yeah – perhaps they can chase the WC3 (4?) – or whatever it’ll be called – spot.

          1
          Reply
    • Rangers29

      3 years ago

      Hey Ducky!

      Sorry about my hiatus from the other thread, but I just posted back there the other day.

      Reply
      • Ducky Buckin Fent

        3 years ago

        I see you @Rangers29. I’ll check it. Be good & do good.

        Reply
  17. Dorothy_Mantooth

    3 years ago

    Texas should add Rodon on a one year deal with lots of incentives & guaranteed player options if he reaches a certain number of appearances and/or innings pitched. The first year of the deal could look something like this: $15M base salary with an extra million in incentives for reaching 130, 135, 140, 145, 150 innings pitched, etc…with a cap of $10M in total incentives for year 1. If Rodon is able to reach 150+ innings or make 30+ starts, a (2) year, $50M player option would kick in, with an opt out after year one of the exercised options. This would serve both the team and the pitcher very well. If Rodon gets hurt, then it is a $15M gamble gone wrong. If Rodon pitches well, he could walk and look for a new deal, sign up for another $25M season and opt out after his second season or decide to re-up for another (2) seasons for $50M guaranteed. That seems like the right amount to pay someone like Rondon so long as he proves he is healthy in his first season with the club. When healthy, he’s one of the best #2 starters in baseball and potentially a #1 starter.

    Reply
  18. willthathrill08

    3 years ago

    doesnt matter what the rangers do, they still wont make playoffs, win the division or go back to the world series anytime soon! when i worked there for the 2010 and 2011 seasons those teams were great and they did what they always do and dump players.

    Reply
  19. rangers13

    3 years ago

    Texas should finish around 74-76 wins this year. They will add Kershaw possibly or more likely trade for one of S Gray, Sean Mamaea, Chris Bassit, Frankie Montas, or Pablo Lopez. That coupled with signing someone like Greinke or Davies or a wild card such as Velasquez or Archer probably handles the starting rotation. They have expressed interest in a veteran bullpen option so I look for them to add two or three of the following: C.Martin, Joe Kelly, Dave Deikman, Sean Doolittle or Keone Kela. The OF has to eliminate W. Calhoun and land Suzuki, preferably. Schwarber or Castellanos if Suzuki isn’t available then you add a fourth OF like Pederson, Dickerson, or McCutheon. Out of that mix if you wind up with Kershaw and Suzuki and two of the relief pitchers they are probably good for maybe .500 this year and 90-95 wins in 23 if Jung, Huff, Winn, Leiter and J.Smith or Foscue have developed as expected.

    Out of the above list realistically I believe they add S. Gray, Suzuki, C. Martin, Joe Kelly, with Pederson added for the bench.

    Reply
  20. knolln

    3 years ago

    it’s funny everyone thinks the rangers are trying to buy a ’22 contender. no opt out long contracts (yes overpays) for seager and semien and gray mean they will be the early and mid 30’s anchors for when leiter and jung and winn and foscue and huff and the rest of a pretty darn decent near MLB system are coming and when those near MLB prospects start to cost more and seager and semien and gray are getting old, the very good lower minors rangers system will be bursting on the scene. long term contracts don’t mean you’re competing now, it’s about lining those signings up with waves of contention. “Oh YA THey sPEnT 600 MiLLS and ARe goiNG to wiN 75 gAMes, hoW duMB”. we know what we’ll be in 2022 and no i don’t think it’s dumb. superstar up the middle players are available now. sign them now. lest your first wave of prospects get here and they’re asked to carry the club because none of those type of players are free agents that year, would mean wasted years a couple years from now.. Seager and Semien and Gray will be vital pieces in ’23 (iffy year) and ’24. sure they might start to tail off, that’s baseball, and getting talent to come to a 60 win baseball club

    1
    Reply
    • knolln

      3 years ago

      that said, suzuki makes a ton of sense based on age and the rangers can afford to make that kind of mistake if it doesn’t pan out. kershaw signing i’m not a huge fan of other than to mentor hearn, allard, et all. but signing kershaw to make the rangers watchable in ’22 is not that bad either. screw the top 4 pick. if we’re playing meaningful baseball in august that means something to us fans. add kershaw and use the IF surplus created by seager/semien of IKF, foscue (I hope not, he’s long term) smith, duran, solak, to turn into another 3-4 type starter and the team is very watchable. doesn’t fly banners, but doesn’t hinder your pursuit of one and means a lot to fans

      Reply

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