Carlos Santana was an above average hitter in every season of the first decade of his career. In his first taste of the big leagues, 2010, he only played 46 games but knocked six homers and walked more than he struck out, slashing .260/.401/.467 for a wRC+ of 141. In each of the next nine seasons, he played at least 143 games, hit at least 19 home runs and never had a walk rate lower than 13.2% or a wRC+ lower than 108.
In 2020, his age-34 season, things didn’t go so smooth, as he hit just .199/.349/.350, wRC+ of 99. However, there were still reasons for optimism. Firstly, it was a small sample of just 60 games, due to the pandemic. Secondly, the walk rate was still excellent, coming in at 18.4%. Thirdly, his .212 batting average on balls in play was well below his previous seasons, suggesting that perhaps bad luck was dragging him down somewhat.
The Royals seemingly favored that optimistic view, as they beat the market and signed Santana to a two-year contract with a $17.5MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season. At the time, the club had posted a losing record in four straight seasons, but believed the time was right to act aggressive in trying to bolster a young core and attempt to open a competitive window.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan for Santana or the team. Although the walks were still there, as evidenced by his 13.1% rate, his line of .214/.319/.342 only amounted to a wRC+ of 83. The BABIP rebounded, but only slightly, to .227. As for the team, they finished well out of contention with a record of 74-88.
The Royals now have a bit of a crowded infield mix for a few reasons. While Adalberto Mondesi was on the shelf last year, Nicky Lopez took over the shortstop job, pushing Mondesi to third base upon his return. That pushed Hunter Dozier into spending some time at first base and the corner outfield spots. Then there’s the looming presence of top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto. Witt should eventually be playing regularly at shortstop or third base, which could push Mondesi into some time at DH, or push Lopez to second, pushing Whit Merrifield into the outfield, which bumps someone else into DH time.
Pratto, however, is a more direct source of pressure on Santana, as he is almost exclusively a first baseman, playing just three games in the outfield last year. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Pratto hit 36 home runs with a line of .265/.385/.602, wRC+ of 156.
That crowded position player mix makes Santana a clear trade candidate, given that he has just one year and $10.5MM remaining on his contract. The trouble for the Royals lies both in that they would be trading low on Santana and also that there are other first base options available to those teams looking for one. The free agent market features Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo as the high profile names, along with other options such as Daniel Vogelbach, Brad Miller, Albert Pujols and many more. On the trade front, Matt Olson is widely expected to be traded after the lockout. Luke Voit could be on the move if the Yankees find another option. Even if the Royals want to go the route of including a prospect to help stimulate a Santana trade, they’d be competing with the Padres who are known to be trying to take the same approach with Eric Hosmer.
It might be a challenge to hastily work out a deal during the transaction frenzy that will surely take place between whenever the lockout ends and the season gets underway. Perhaps the best path forward for the Royals is to hold onto Santana and hope that he can get things back on track, either to help the team compete or to rebuild trade value. He was dealing with a quad issue at times last year, which he has now recovered from, but he will turn 36 in April, making it harder to expect perfect health and ideal production going forward. Though late career bounceback campaigns are certainly possible, as Joey Votto just showed in his age-37 season.
Santana isn’t going anywhere unless the Royals attache a prospect and eat a large chunk of his salary. There are far more 1B/DH types available than there are roster spots and that would include if the NL adopts the DH
They’ll trade him to the A’s after they deal Olson. I’d almost wager on it if Olson is moved. They took billy butler from Toronto I think or maybe it was KC this seems like a similar situation.
Basically a waiver trade with the Royals eating nearly all the cost in return for a marginal prospect. No one is tying up so much money in a player in today’s game. I’m thinking their better off keeping him and see if can revert back to his prior production. If so, he gets traded during the season, if not he gets waived.
No one would claim him on waivers, which would mean KC foots his bill, and he plays for someone else at league minimum.
Exactly.
Actually Billy Butler signed a 3 year contract with Oakland after KC didn’t resign him. KC went out and got Kendrys Morales for the 2014 and 2015 World Series runs.
Santana will end up in Oakland and hit .210 6 HR 41 RBI
Sounds like a brave to me
I don’t think he will be moved. He won’t be worth whatever the Royals could get for him and the salary would have to be eaten or it would turn into a bad contract swap with both teams banking on a bounce back from the change of scenery.
This is a sunk cost and they’re getting exactly what they paid for.
Sorry Triillionaire for not reading all posts before joining in. My comment was similar.
A team signed Santana to an underwater contract that blocks the utility of a homegrown player? When did Matt Klentak work for the Royals?
Trade his bad contract to SD for Hosmers worse contract and a prospect. KC might be the only place Hosmer has any value (nostalgic only).
I’ve thought this too for quite awhile. Makes sense imo
Possibly the only reasonable option the padres have left.
The trouble for the Royals lies both in that they would be trading low on Santana
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You’re only selling low if you think he will improve and be worth more later. I’m not sure that’s the case.
That said, I don’t see the overcrowding. When you say “Royals now have a bit of a crowded infield mix”, you are commingling two completely separate concepts, maybe three.
First, no one is sure whether or not Lopez is a real player.
Secondly, assuming he is a real player (he looks good), they still don’t occupy the same space. Santana is a 1B, at best, while Lopez is a good glove SS, who will never play 1B.
Basically, assuming that Dozier plays RF, KC doesn’t have a 1B or a DH, other than Santana. Pratto, eventually, maybe.
And, FWIW, it feels like you are pushing data in support of your article. The section about Pratto supports him coming up. But doesn’t mention his 529 strikeouts in 1,547 ABs. He takes walks, but there is a pretty good argument for leaving him in AAA for most of the year.
There is another beast behind Pratto who never seems to get mentioned. Vinnie Pasquantino is the bat I’d want (not sure of the glove though and I hear Pratto is slick). Because KC had such a logjam of sluggers in AAA with Witt, Pratto, Melendez and McBroom, Vinnie never rose above AA. He had a .300 BA 24 HR and exactly the same number of walks and K’s — 64. 12.4 % on each so he doesn’t share Pratto’s sky high strikeout rate. Keep an eye out for Vinnie.
He has, however, had a poor stint in Dominican winter ball. But that place seems to be the place where HRs and hitting go to die for almost everyone. Why this little half of an island that boasts man for man, pound for pound, the greatest sluggers on the planet can’t produce a league that comes anywhere close to showcasing that talent is one of the world’s great mysteries.
I was always a big fan of Santana – I love that OBP skill set. I wonder if being in this kind of lineup hurts him extra given his primary value is drawing walks – pitchers can just come right at him. Or he is just old. Lol
Carlos Santana said he feels “100 percent” now after undergoing platelet-rich plasma treatment on his left quad.
Santana battled a nagging quad issue the last few months of the season, which contributed to an embarrassing .500 second-half OPS. It particularly hindered him against right-handed pitching, and he finished the year with a lowly .184/.309/.327 line versus righties. Santana is no given to bounce back considering he also struggled in 2020 and will turn 36 in April. That said, his track record would suggest he certainly should at least be a little better, assuming health.
SOURCE: Kansas City Star
Dec 31 4:01 pm (EST)
This assessment from NBC Sports Edge is very accurate.
If he does well before the deadline they might be able to get a needy team to take on his salary for a lotto ticket
Yankees would like his skill set.
While not a slam dunk, I have to believe that if the DH becomes universal, Santana becomes a little more appealing for NL teams that do not have a plan or a natural option for the role. Royals will still need to eat salary and/or include a lottery prospect, but Santana could be a really good DH candidate with his age. Unfortunately, the Royals don’t really have a spot for him at DH due to the circumstances with Mondesi, Melendez/Salvy, etc.