In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Diamondbacks selected Alek Thomas, an outfielder from Mount Carmel High School in Chicago. Just 18 years old at the time, Thomas played 56 rookie ball games that year, 28 each on two different teams, hitting .333/.395/.463, wRC+ of 133, with a walk rate of 8.9% and strikeout rate of just 13.7%.
In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 91 games and hitting .312/.393/.479. His walk and strikeout rates were 10.7% and 17.9%, culminating in a 153 wRC+. He got promoted to High-A that year and struggled a bit, which isn’t terribly surprising given that he was more than three years younger than the average age for that level. But it was also a small sample of just 23 games.
The pandemic wiped out the 2020 season but didn’t slow Thomas down at all. In 2021, he started his season in Double-A and played 72 games there, hitting ten home runs and stealing eight bases. Along with a walk rate of 11.2% and strikeout rate of 19.8%, he hit .283/.374/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. He got promoted to Triple-A and took his game up another notch. Despite his walk and strikeout rates slipping to 9% and 20.5%, he hit eight home runs in just 34 games, adding five steals, finishing with a line of .369/.434/.658, wRC+ of 168. Thomas is now considered one of the top prospects in the game, with Baseball America ranking him #32, MLB Pipeline #40 and FanGraphs #23.
Thomas, 22 years old in April, has little left to prove in the minors, having now shown himself capable of playing well at the top parts of the D-Backs’ system. One thing standing in his way is the fact that he’s not on the team’s 40-man roster yet, since he’s still a year away from Rule 5 eligibility. Furthermore, as with all top prospects nearing MLB readiness at this time of year, there’s the possibility that they won’t get promoted until they are held back long enough for the club to gain an extra year of control over them. Though there’s also the possibility that the service time rules change, as they are currently being negotiated as part of the next CBA.
Thomas has played all three outfield positions throughout his minor league career, but more in center than the corners. FanGraphs, however, sees him as more of a left fielder in the long term. Even with that move to a less-demanding defensive position, they still view him as a future above-average regular.
At the big league level, the outfield picture for the Diamondbacks is quite murky at the moment. David Peralta is likely to continue as the team’s primarily left fielder, though this is the final year of his extension and he turns 35 in August. He also had a mediocre season at the plate last season, putting up a wRC+ of just 93, his lowest in years. Taking all that into consideration, he might not be a part of the long-term picture.
The attempts to turn Ketel Marte into a center fielder didn’t really work out and he seems poised to return to full-time second base work going forward. Daulton Varsho is a baseball oddity, capable of switching between outfield and catching duties. He was behind the plate for 41 games last year but also saw time on the grass in 54 contests. He hasn’t fully established himself as an MLB hitter just yet, but is just 25 years old and has an excellent minor league track record. Pavin Smith is in a similar position to Varsho, hitting just below league average in his MLB time thus far. But he just turned 26 and has carried himself well in the minors. Josh VanMeter is in the picture but mostly as a bench/utility option. Jordan Luplow came over from the Rays in a trade just before the lockout. He’s likely to be primarily used in a platoon capacity, given his excellent career numbers against lefties and the fact that Peralta, Varsho and Smith all hit from the left side. Thomas is also a lefty, but actually hit southpaws better than righties last year. (1.073 OPS versus lefties and .909 against righties.) Cooper Hummel was added to the 40-man roster in November but has yet to make his MLB debut. Jake McCarthy and Stuart Fairchild are also on the roster, but each has less than 25 games of MLB experience. There’s also another highly-touted outfield prospect in Corbin Carroll, though he’s only reached High-A so far.
In short, there are a lot of options written in pencil, but none in ink. The Diamondbacks had a nightmare season in 2021, going 52-110, tied with the Orioles for the worst record in the majors. They share a division with strong teams like the Dodgers and Giants. The Padres have a decent chance of being much better this year than last. The Rockies plan on spending some money and competing this year. Arizona will need a lot of things to go right if they’re going to bridge the gap with their competitors, including Thomas, and a few of these other names, cementing themselves as mainstays in the outfield.
The still unsolved issue of service time manipulation.
Look, it’s not manipulation iif the rules allow it. This was collectively bargained. If they don’t like it, then change it (which they’re trying to do). But to complain about it is just stupid.
No, it is in fact manipulation. It’s just not illicit according to the current rules.
Maybe, but his point is both sides agreed to it last CBA.
It’s service time maximization from management’s side. The rules were agreed to by both sides.
It’s not illegal if the law allows it.
But you certainly manipulate things in an unintended way to gain an unintended advantage.
Like a tax law written such that you cancel your income taxes due to losses in real estate development.
The law is meant to encourage development. But some people manipulated the situation to create larger losses (at least as far as the law pertains) to cancel more future income taxes.
That is both legal and unethical.
The system is manipulated into controlling a he players entry and beginning of service time.
The Dbacks are horrendous, no player is blocking him if he’s ready lol
To fix a sentence near the end, it should read:
“The Rockies plan on spending some money and have delusions of competing this year.”
over/under 94 wins?
I hope this is sarcasm.
I hope that your hope for sarcasm is sarcasm.
My hope is nunya business.
I’ll predict that as the combined number of Rockies and D-backs wins. I’m assuming in that calculation we lose 50 games of the season to the lockout..
I’m still taking the under even if its combined…
“Who’s blocking Alek Thomas?”
The elephant in the room
Just bring the kid up and build some excitement about the future. It’s okay to finish in last place in your division so long as you are promoting rookies and getting their feet wet. The worst thing you can do is finish last with a bunch of veterans…fans won’t pay to see that.
Well said.
that’s what Seth Beer and Jake McCarthy are for
Well, why set the clock rolling now…if you just wait until he’s 24 you get all the prime years
Look at Ryan Zimmerman. A lot of these guys are ready…..but…service time manipulation
I’ve seen him on milb.tv, and the swing is gorgeous; the athleticism is real. too (though the reaction time is a little short for a CF). Daddy’s in the business (conditioning guy with the White Sox) so his transition from high schooler to pro ball was probably easier than it is for many.
One look at him and you think Andrew Benintendi, the better version. IMHO a definite major leaguer, slightly above average as a floor, but with some real possibilities to be better.
The funny thing is that one of his top comps on Baseball Sacant is Benintendi. Oddly enough, Corbin Carroll also has Benintendi pretty high up on the list.
Varsho can hit. An interesting player with good instincts.
Agree. He struggled in 2020 then again early in 2021, but when he came back he started to really put it together. Varsho has star potential I think as long as the hit tool keeps developing.
Would love to hear from Dback fans how Ketel Marte played center field? The article just says “it didn’t work out.” Any details on hoe he played would be appreciated.
-15 DRS in 567 innings and -5 OAA in 181 attempts for the ’21 season in CF. That’s really bad. Didn’t see him play in CF but I image it wouldn’t have been pretty.
He was barely passable in 2019, but was downright dreadful last year. Realistically CF probably isn’t a regular position for him anymore.
Curious comment by the writer, especially since, all we hear back here in the AL East is that Marte could be the Yankees answer in CF……whats the real story DBacks fans?
Besides the poor defensive metrics, Marte doesn’t like to play CF and he is injury prone when he does. He’s a 2b.
He has no desire to play CF. He voiced concerns over one of his prior injuries being related to running on the artificial turf, but later walked back that statement (pretty much everyone agrees management had him do that).
He shouldn’t be playing CF anyways; he doesn’t look unathletic out there, but he’s definitely inefficient (if that makes sense). He’s one of the better bats at either CF or 2B, though.
Pretty much every team in the league could theoretically make room for him and make a substantial improvement. Yankees fans aren’t wrong to dream, but whatever deal is made is going to hurt that team’s farm badly.
“Who” is not the issue. What is blocking him and many fine young talents like him — the service time needs of the big club. There are many 20-22 year olds spread out over the league just like Alek Thomas who were most likely ready to play but the team would rather wait for them to be at optimum strength and milk every last month of the 6-7 years available to them.
They’d rather wait even if the pre optimum strength of the emerging prospect is better than the player they’d replace, an occasional Jarred Kelenic performance notwithstanding. I’d much rather start the clock on more kids (and shuffle them back if it does not work out) but I understand the game. I hope these negotiations create more early opportunities.
The service time issue will be changed and Arizona needs to have him on their opening the roster. Good odds for National League rookie of the year.
The players union have already given up on changing the service time years. They are now pushing for more players to qualify for arbitration after year 2 instead of year 3, so service time control seems to be here to stay for at least another 5 years.
ruckus727. The Dbacks do not “need” to have Alek Thomas on the Opening Day roster. It’s attitudes like that that make fans think the MLB clubs are manipulating player’s service times.
Yes Thomas is talented. But he had spotty, short service time at AA 72 games) and AAA (34 games) after his 2020 season was wiped out totally. That has set him back, as similar stories have set back many other players over the past two weird seasons. Thomas definitely needs more AAA experience. It’s not manipulation unless you have prejudged every instance without knowing details.
I agree with much of this, especially the general tenor of the comment. However, his time last year was not “spotty’ in AA or AAA, he was excellent. The rest of your comment I think was spot on.
Kwolf68. Thank you for correcting me. I’m sorry I improperly used “spotty”. I was referring to his limited playing time at AA and AAA, not his actual performance. Yes, he was excellent. I used a double adjective “spotty, short”. I think it’s my way of stuttering.
This kid is a big reason why I’m looking forward to becoming a Diamondbacks fan.
The lockout is blocking everyone but I guess they still need to come up with content.
*facepalm*
Well, MLB.com is recycling a bunch of old stories to boost content.
Give him a half year of AAA. He will be a star.
Is that a money back guarantee?
No one is blocking him. He’s only 21 w/only three years of minor league ball. Please get this lockout over so these writers don’t have to make up stuff to justify their jobs.
When I read about Varsho, my mind drifted back to the time Mike Heath was playing. Same type of versatility.
Daulton Varsho is indeed rare. Since 1901, only Roger Bresnahan and Craig Biggio were their team’s primary C and CF.
Since 1901, only 2008 DET Brandon Inge, 1971 KCR Ed Kirkpatrick, 1920 BOS Wally Schang, 1906 DET Fred Payne and 1901 STL Art Nichols played more than 10 games ate both C and CF during the same season.
Dale Murphy converted from C to CF but was never the primary C and never played both positions the same season
Mike Heath…1083 gms at C, 215 gms in OF, 42 @ DH, 38 @ 3rd, 4 gms @ 1st & SS, 1 gm @ 2nd.
Brian Downing 824 gm. DH, 777 OF, 675 catcher.
Diamondbacks will suck this year, they l be fighting with the Rockies and Padres to see who doesn’t finish last. They will continue to keep real good players in minors till they may be able to compete. Maybe 2025 -2028 right now their pitching is very weak.
I’m guessing you haven’t seen san diegos roster lately
The Diamondbacks are expected to lose 104 and Rockies 100 so why bring up rookies instead of waiting. It’s way too early to give these estimates much credit. But if the Diamondbacks lose 30 fewer games than Vegas think they still lose 74. A great year for the Diamondbacks would be 81-81 assuming we play 162 games.
In 2023, the Dbacks OF will be Alek Thomas LF, Corbin Carroll CF and Kristian Robinson RF, with Jake McCarthy as the 4th OF