Back in January it was reported that the Angels and two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani had yet to engage in long-term extension talks. In his latest piece, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Angels had “informal discussions” with Ohtani’s representatives late in spring training that may hint at what the hybrid player’s next contract looks like. Specifically, Ohtani’s camp indicated that any contract would have to award the reigning MVP a record average salary, currently held by Max Scherzer with an annual $43.3MM salary courtesy of the Mets.
Rosenthal notes that the Angels were, at the time, reluctant to offer a market value deal of length to Ohtani at the presumed apex of his value. The team may very well be running out of time to lock up another superstar, but he remains under control another year via arbitration and was always unlikely to accept a discounted extension on the heels of an 8.1fWAR season. It can certainly be reasoned then that the franchise is looking for Ohtani to come down from his great 2021 heights to make the hit of his next contract slightly less monumental.
Through 61 games this season the 27-year-old is off his MVP-pace from the year prior, but it would be disingenuous to suggest he’s hampered his value much with 13 home runs and a solid .260/.336/.481 (133 OPS+) batting line. Even his rotation work remains decidedly above average, with strong peripherals and an elite strikeout rate of 31.7% suggesting his 3.64 ERA is unluckily high.
In this regard, the Angels find themselves with a catch-22 on their hands. The more Ohtani performs, as he continues to do, the greater the team’s chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade. As Ohtani’s two-way excellence continues, however, the team is faced with a greater price tag that they may be hesitant to pay given their already top-heavy payroll.
For context, any contract that buys out Ohtani’s first free agent year will begin in 2024 when the Angels will have nearly $92MM devoted to just three players: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Raisel Iglesias. When factoring in guaranteed salaries to both catcher Max Stassi and infielder David Fletcher that 2024 figure jumps to nearly $105MM, more than half of this year’s $190MM team payroll (per RosterResource). That leaves room for an eventual Ohtani contract, of course, though at a projected rate of $44MM+ it wouldn’t leave a ton of room to round out the rest of the roster.
Plenty of time remains until Ohtani secures an unfathomable payday, be it with the Halos or a competing club. Until then, the Angels and Ohtani have an unprecedented arbitration case to look forward to next offseason. And before that point, both parties will look to upend this season’ 29-34 record that can only serve to jeopardize a longer-term union between player and club.
Trade Obtain and Trout for Strasburg and Juan Soto
That’s the single worst trade prop ever posted for Soto
Hahaha, it would be interesting… sorta
#TradeObtain
“I like Obtain”
“No you don’t, no one does”
Why would they trade two top 5 players for one top 5 player and the worst contract in baseball?
Ohtani to the Cardinals for Carlson, Matz, Libertore, Walker (#1 AAA prospect), and DeJong.
(An addition to previous comment of mine)
Ohtani —-As a rental player until his current contract runs out. Then let the chips fall where they may——
The Cardinals only have a 1-3 year window of signed impact players, plus a strong Golden Glove set of fielders behind them.
Together—-with Ohtani—- the Cardinals would be the favorite to win the World Series!!!
Will he take a 3 year deal? Otherwise, you wish him luck and move on
Im going to assume he wants at least 5 years.
If he plays at the level of even this year and stays healthy, it’s going to take a minimum of 8/320 and likely more.
Considering he said he wants to beat Max’s aav in any contract, then 8/320 doesn’t even meet that…
Rando, first off, I said it would be the minimum and likely more. But beyond that, I don’t think you understand how “negotiating” works.
According to your logic, if they offered him a 12 year contract at $480M, because the AAV is “only” $40M, he won’t take that either.
FSF: I agree. I also don’t believe he will get anywhere near what his agent is asking for in AAV if he wants any longevity with his contract. Not only are organizations shying away from those types of contracts for guys around 30, but they’re demonstrating their willingness to pass on a player instead of engaging in a bidding war. The only teams I see as viable options at this time are the Mets & the Dodgers, for what he’s seeking. Hal is never going to pay that for him. They won’t even pay $300M for Judge & Judge is a better hitter.
Clip, not only do I agree with that, but Moreno is too cheap to take his payroll well past $200M (where it should be) which is where it will go with 3 guys making $115M+ and before even filling out the rest of the team, especially with what quality pitching costs.
Well let’s just forget that he’s even a hitter for a moment. Moreno is not giving a multi-year deal to a starting pitcher.
Yeah, cool. So just ignore the entire context of the article, then your post makes sense. Gotcha
If he really only cared about total career earnings, he probably wouldn’t have come over early.
Are you being serious? He’s definitely getting 7 or 8 minimum. Probably more like 9-10.
If you want your team to pay him 430 million dollars for his 29-30 – 39-40 seasons, have fun.
This isn’t about what fans want. This is the reality of the market. Prediction != personal desire
What reason would he have to accept a three year deal?
$132m and the ability to re-enter the market at 32
32 isn’t nearly as marketable. He will get a longer deal guaranteed
Agreed.
Until Ohtani proves me wrong, I consider 2021 a kind of fluke / outlier year. A HR every 12 ABs, compared to every 21 in 2019, 22 in 2020, and 20 so far this year. Still no Babe Ruth in my book. socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2021/10/shohei-ohtani-…
Besides, the GOAT of long-term pitching-batting combos is the Big Train, not Ruth. socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2021/09/shohei-ohtani-…
It will definitely be interesting to see how Ohtani plays over the next year and what his contract ultimately winds up looking like.
Any team that signs Ohtani will instantly attract 100’s of thousands of new fans. He would be a good investment for a team that has a solid fanbase already but struggles to fill their ballpark on a nightly basis. I don’t think a bottom 5 attendance team would spend the money to sign him, but he would definitely help sell out most of the games in places like Seattle, Arizona, Minnesota, Texas and possibly even Detroit. Of these 5, I really only see Seattle or Texas making a true run at him if he becomes a free agent. Then of course there are the Dodgers and Mets who make so much money that they don’t care about the luxury tax. Also, don’t count out the Yankees if they end up letting Judge walk after this year. More payroll will be coming off the Yankees’ ledger by 2024 & 2025 so they could definitely afford to sign him and he would be a beast at the plate in NY with that short porch in LF. He could hit 50+ HRs multiple times if he joins the Yankees.
The real question is for how much and how long? He’s a $20M+ batter and a $25M/yr pitcher all wrapped in one. I’m not convinced that any of these teams will be willing to commit to more than 8-9 years for him @ a maximum AAV of $40M; even that might be a stretch. I’m sure Ohtani and his agents are looking for him to become the first $500M player, but he will be 29 by the time he suits up for a new club, so I don’t see him getting to $500M like Soto possibly could due to his age. With that said, he is one of the very few players in baseball who can turn an entire fanbase around and sell out games just to see him play. A savvy team with a good marketing department may be willing to come close to his asking price as he will increase revenues and the value of the franchise substantially. This guy is a once in a generation talent, so some team is going to pay him record-setting money to join their club. It will be very interesting to see which club ends up signing him.
Ha can be $50M/year, but not sure about $500M guy. He’ll turn 28 in early July and the Angels had a bad experience with 10-year contracts.
Maybe 8 years $400ish M makes more sense.
Don’t forget those Giants. They have plenty of cash to dish out.
Detroit maybe if Davey D were still here…maybe
He’s going to hit 5.5 WAR total this year, in all likelihood. Maybe 6. He projects in my GM’s book to $25M a year total, and not more than 6 years.
Trade Judge-san for Ohtani-san and Trout-san.
That makes sense for no one-san!
What about for Cashman-san?
“It can certainly be reasoned that Angels are looking for him to come down from his great 2021 heights to make the hit of his next contract slightly less monumental”. Yeah, pretty foolish statement here. While yes, of course the Angels will want the best deal for them, this guy is getting paid like no one ever has on this next deal. I don’t think the team wants him to start struggling now, just so they can offer him 400 million, instead of 500. Ohtani son is about to get unprecedented money, and my guess is it won’t be LAA anyway.
Not a foolish statement, the Angels cannot afford 50 million more in payroll and they are currently trying to negotiate with him a right only they have at the moment so it’s all eyes on them til it ain’t
“Ohtani is about to get unprecedented money”
Not necessarily true at all. 1 superstar season in 5 years and nothing close to being a superstar before or since (4 WAR in 2018, 2.5 WAR in 2019, -0.5 WAR in 2020, on pace for around 5 WAR this year). One of the most overrated players I can remember. He’s a 3-6 WAR player now, in his prime. Whatever dumb team signs him, they will be lucky if he averages 3 WAR per year for the first 5 years of the contract (anything past the 5 year mark is virtually guaranteed to be garbage, in terms of production).
More like a 3-5 WAR player now (in his prime), since he has only surpassed the 5 WAR mark one single time in his career.
Semi-agreed. I think he’s at 5.5 WAR or a bit better this year, but I wouldn’t count on him for more than 5 war down the road. So, I’d pay 6/$150, were I a GM, but not more than that.
A lot of risk involved with Ohtani as a pitcher, but if he, at some point, can no longer pitch (or pitch consistently), how much is he worth as just a DH? If the Angels hadn’t signed Rendon for the money they guaranteed, Ohtani would have been a better gamble of $38M a year instead of Rendon. At least Ohtani is an international draw. The Angels will need to get mighty creative in trying to add an Ohtani extension to the payroll, plus adding better pitching to the team. This is why we rarely see two of the current great players on the same team in their big money years.
Article mentions he wants minimum of 43.3…so talking about him at 38 seems kinda pointless?
Sure he can come down from that, but operating under the assumption that he means what he says, it’d be more than that. That said, I think he’d probably still be a better investment at that price than Rendon at his price, but due to Rendon and the other contracts, I think he’s a poor investment for the Angels. They need to get away from the stars and scrubs team construction.
Don’t take everything so literal, bagofpoop. I was referencing how much the Angels are committing to Rendon per season. My point is that the $38M+ per season that the Angels will be spending on Rendon over the next several seasons would have been better spent on a superstar attraction (if they’re going to spend that kind of money on one player), a young, gifted position player, a top flight pitcher, or on two or more other players. Instead they gave it to a really good to sometimes great, yet starting to age player in Rendon. Everyone thought it was an overpay in both years and salary at the time of the signing. Even if Rendon bounces back for a couple of seasons, his contract will make it difficult for the Angels to risk even more big dollars on Ohtani. They could have used some or all of that $38M per season on Ohtani. Now they might have to decide its not worth another long-term signing due to the need for better pitching, plus huge commitments in Trout and Rendon. Trout is worth the risk of a huge commitment, as is Ohtani, due to him being a unique talent and an international draw. Rendon is not worth the risk, and his contract is the wrench in the works. His contract is why the Angels are going to have to get creative with someone’s contract, whether it’d be Trout’s, Rendon’s, or Ohtani’s. Otherwise Ohtani will have to sign elsewhere, unless the Angels trade him or Trout. No one is going to relieve the Angels of Rendon. At best, a team might take on a third (one-fourth is more likely) of his contract to acquire Rendon, but they won’t give up anything useful for him. The Angels can’t do it all when it comes to making huge commitments and also being competitive. They’ve proved that for the last ten years. They need to get creative or sacrifice one of their mega-stars. Since Ohtani has the arm injury history, they may want to let some other team take the risk of ending up with a $45M DH by trading him in this upcoming off-season. Angels fans will be up the wall about it, but it’s him or Trout. Or just keep having season after season of 3rd to 5th place finishes while having special players for no reason at all if no October baseball is being generated.
positively_broad_st13 mins ago
A lot of risk involved with Ohtani as a pitcher,
==============================
Yup, I’d be real leery on this one. He was a great hitter in 2021, but decidedly less so this year. And he hasn’t been the picture of good health as a pitcher.
“ He was a great hitter in 2021, but decidedly less so this year. And he hasn’t been the picture of good health as a pitcher.”
– And that’s only going to get worse as he ages into his 30s.
Yeah, I’m just not sure how long he’ll be able to effectively pitch and hit.
If he ever stops pitching what makes you think he can’t play outfield? He has good speed, a strong arm obviously, I feel confident he can catch a fly ball. He might not be great but I can’t imagine him being any worse than some of the lumbering guys out there now.
Disagree. His homer totals are way off this year. So far, a HR every 20 ABs compared to every 12 last year. Homer every 21 ABs in 2019 when only batting, not pitching. Until he proves me wrong, I consider 2021 a kind of fluke / outlier year.
For me, any Ohtani extension would have to contain some sort of annual vesting option… nothing crazy, say 50 IP and 100 PA each season. If I’m paying for a 2 way player, I’m getting my 2 way player
What motivation would the player have to agree to those constraints?
What motivation did Ohtani have for not going through the posting process and playing for league minimum his first 3 seasons? His passion for being a 2 way player and his love for the game
$500 million. $250 million for each Position.
Relax, i kid! lol
As much as I like Ohtani, there is no way I would want the Angels to pay him 44m a year for any length of time. Let the Yankees or Dodgers do it. That kind of money can be spent in so many better ways.
Agreed, Prov. As good as Ohtani is, that’s too much money for any length of time. I don’t see him having a market, honestly. I think the market overall has leveled out a bit. Correa & others were predicted to get massive contracts too and didn’t get anywhere near what their projections were. I think these players & their agents are going to get some harsh wake-up calls.
He had a chance to go to NY and he chose the Angels. He wouldn’t handle the pressure of playing for NY. He likes going to visit Mickey Mouse after every loss…basically every home game.
So that’s the best derogatory comment you can come up with? I always wonder what motivates people to join a conversation for the sole purpose of insulting fans of another team. Maybe you could shed some light on it as one of those people.
I don’t see how that’s derogatory. Dude likes going to Disneyland more than he wants to win. In my opinion, if he wanted to win, he would’ve chosen a winning team. The Angels haven’t been a winning team for a while. My comment was in response to someone mentioning that NYY would try to sign him.
As an angel fan I don’t see anything derogatory about the comment. I do see a yankee fan a little bitter he didn’t sign there as expected. Reality is he wanted to play with Trout and help him get to the playoffs (which he obviously won’t do because of terrible ownership and incompetent management). He also wanted to play on the west coast and be around a larger Asian population while still playing in a reasonably big market. The Angels also agreed to let him call his own shots on when and how often he wants to play. So I don’t think Mickey has much to do with it. Be happy Jeet, the Yankees are killing it.
The other advantage West Coast teams have in signing players out of Asia is it’s closer to home. And FWIW I don’t see the Dodgers having much interest in Ohtani if he reaches free agency. When he was posted he gave the Dodgers the impression he really wasn’t interested in playing for them. It wasn’t a snub exactly from what was said publicly, but it definitely was not a mutual love-fest. Maybe the dynamics would change with the universal DH but still don’t see it happening.
Disneyland is a great buffet of many things
JeetFan2……
Sounds like it still stings that the very first team that Ohtani eliminated, publicly, from the race to sign him was the Yankees.
Money maybe not even be the top motivitating factor. Had Ohtani waited two more years to join the MLB, he would’ve been an unrestricted free agent easily getting $100M+.
lol, have you spent time in the Bronx?
They know about the bleacher creatures
20/20 If only the Angels had re-signed Mark Teixeira there would have no Pujols. Teixeira and Guerrero would have lethal. The Cabrera trade would have been amazing, but costly on the starting pitching at the time. Why am I bring this up? Because Pujols is the major cornerstone of today’s problems. Sure there were bonehead trade prior to that, but Pujols is the everlasting foundation. I don’t even need to mention Josh Hamilton, or CJ Wilson etc. Now the Angels need pay Ohtani for his unique talents, but also from a business side for marketing internationally, but stuck with surplus starting pitching. If there was only a way to trade Anthony Redon for pitching…
Moreno is the major cornerstone of today’s problems, not Pujols.
That’s because Moreno operates emotionally and not logically. The positive is that he spends money on his product, but operates impulsively.
Cj wilson wasn’t a bad pickup. Gary mathews jr and Vernon wells and hamilton were god awful pickups. Rendon is becoming that.
How exactly does Albert Pujols influence the Ohtani contract? Your statement lacks coherency.
You don’t think that Moreno doesn’t want make back what he invested on garbage? So, yes, Pujols and the other bad signings is relevant to this day.
They used the draft pick compensation from Teixeira to draft Trout so there’s that.
How much money do you think “International marketing” brings in for the team? Ohtani is making extra back home. Not so certain the team is bringing in much though.
Japanese fans will flock to a team that has a star Japanese player on it. Seattle had at least 1 bus full at every game. Sometimes it got up to 5. I bet the Angels would see a tick up in attendance when he signed. There is also merch they go crazy over that.
8/360
Any player could ask for Rendon money since Rendon doesn’t play much. I remember Arte wanted Rendon over Cole because he didn’t want to pay a guy who only played every 5th day. How’s that going? Lol
KGB in the movie “Rounders”: “Pay Dat man his money”…
What happened to Rendon? Dude mashed his whole career, gets paid, then immediately has injuries and poor production.
A lot of players seem better than they actually are with all the hype leading up to their time as a free agent. Rondon was a slightly better than average player for a majority of his career. Another owner suckered into a stupid contract.
It’s the same problem with a lot of teams, and always a problem with the Angels.
1-Some GMs buy into the belief that the player’s walk year statistics are more important than his career statistics. Rendon had a very nice and improving OPS of .830 before his walk year. Then he had a 1.010 and the Angels paid him like a 1.010. But at age 30, he was unlikely to replicate that season.
2-The Angles in particular, simply don’t believe that players get old. 32 is not ancient, but it is at the point where players decline.
And indirectly, the lack of development means they aren’t spending money on their own players. Outside of Trout, and to a lesser degree Ohtani, the Angels don’t have players to shower money on. Since they are locked into paying $180-200M, they have to spend the money on FAs, and that gets expensive.
‘Never sign a player over 27 to a long term deal’. That’s what happened to him. And he was 30, on top of that.
Ohtani prob would go to a team with World Series short term possibilities, like an AL or NL East Team where he has a shorter RF / RCF porch. Yanks would have to dump payroll, RedSox could pay, NATS under new owners might play, bat ahead of Soto! And of course the Mets. NY is very attractive to Japanese stars, but so is LA ( Dodgers).
Fun times … how bout them Yankees !!
Red Sox would only offer short term. Probably 3/150-4/180. Ohtani is going to wind up with 8/400 from the Dodgers.
I’m not saying this is what he’s worth. I believe he’s worth 8/280.
I think a big contract for ohtani would be easier to swallow than it would for someone else. Say he wants 50 mil a year, which is a lot, but essentially you’re paying 25 mil for a front end starter, which basically any team would do, and 25 mil for a middle of the order power bat, which any other team would also do.
You are paying $25m/year for approximately 10 years for a DH in his prime posting a 133RC+?
If he was repeating 2021 then maybe. But he’s not. I doubt ANY team sees him as 10/$250 type HITTER.
Baseball contracts are getting stupid real fast.
Ohtani: “I want a $50 million average annual salary over 10 years or I walk!” This is another good, but overrated, ballplayer
Angels should give him $100mil/yr for 10 years —it will destroy the economics for lower budget teams to keep them from being competitive and keep the Angels from signing other talent for awhile. It worked so well for the NBA!
The Angels should rightfully be leery of paying Ohtani that kind of money. Is he worth that much as just a hitter? No. How will his two-way game age? This is a tough one.
The Angels are screwed, though. I just don’t see how this team makes themselves truly competitive without tearing it all down, but how could they even do that? No one’s taking on Rendon or Trout’s contract at this point, even if they wanted to trade them. Their farm system sucks. This team is going nowhere.
You guys talk about trades as if they are even a possibility with a full NTC in place.
Would he waive.it to play on a WS contender? Possibly. Would performing well in the playoffs increase his next contract? Absolutely!
Dude strikes out a lot in key situations. Seems to be a good pitcher sometimes.
Lots of hype I am afraid. Angels are a mess. They need pitching and some how cannot hit consistently.
Then fire Maddon?
I am a long time Angels fan. But this team has been hard to like for a long time Mike Trout aside.
But he is just one guy
Rendon is truly killing this team. Guy can’t hit a fastball in the mid to upper 90s. If I were the Angels, I would not offer Ohtani anything more than what Trout gets annually. Then if he wants to walk, fine. Home runs aside, Ohtani is a .260 hitter. His pitching would have to be replaced by a more durable front-line type.
Ohtani seems like he’s in this awkward position where everybody assumes as soon as he’s locked up to an extension he’ll drop of or injuries/wear and tear will nullify his contributions, but he keeps playing at above average to elite levels on both sides of the game and is severely underpaid and wound be currently if he was making $20M or $35M or even $40M.
If he was considered a sure thing it’s arguable he’d be worth $50M a season minimum, maybe as much as $70M a season.
Aging players rarely continue their production. If he wants to beat the aav max, he’s going to need to accept a short term deal.
Every player is always aging every additional year they play. By that logic every free agency contract is a bad one. Historically virtually every player on a massive extension or free agency deal hasn’t quite lived up to the salary and years on that deal and teams accept this. They tack on 1-3 years extra knowing they’ll be banking on younger cheap talent to pick up the slack and eventually the young cheap talent starts to age and get expensive and then new guys from the farm system come up etc.
Everybody in baseball is paid for what they’ve done not what they will do, with rare exceptions of very early Hail Mary extensions that hope to anticipate the player’s max value and get a discount by guaranteeing the money earlier in their career, with the risk they don’t pan out.
At the same time there’s too much money in the sport to not pay the superstars after they get paid the minimum and fractional versions of their true value during arbitration.
It is what it is. Not paying Ohtani would be like highway robbery at this point and refusing to pay him based on the possibility he breaks down is logic that can be extended to every single player- which isn’t acceptable. “We make hundreds of millions from the broadcast rights deals and merchandise and fan attendance for people to watch you, but you will break down over time so it’s never a good investment to pay you what you’re worth now, so thanks for all the money we’re making off your popularity but we have to compensate you for that later and later you won’t be this young so you get no money or years.”
It just doesn’t make sense. The flaws of the contracts and salaries are baked into the system.
This can’t be said often enough. Teams sign longterm contracts knowing the out years are liable to be under water. It’s a cost of doing business. Lots of comments here about how virtually every free agent contract is bad from the moment the ink dries, and how front offices have no idea what they are doing when they sign them. But of course Some Guy on the Internet always knows, especially after the fact. It’s as if SGI is accountable and the GMs who are hired to spend ownership’s money and built rosters are not.
“By that logic, every free agent contract is a bad one.”
If you look at the long term (5 yrs or longer), that’s a pretty reliable statement. Few actually work out for the entirety. Smart teams will not pay for years they expect to be underwater. Large markets may be able to overpay, but you’re not liking the Rendon contract now, so even a Large market team can get hurt by the overpay, especially if decline starts early. Overpays cost depth. Teams have budgets. Hopefully none is earmarked for “declining veteran”.
Just like the world today there’s little nuisance in here
*Some of the best contracts in baseball are long term contracts
Wheeler Mookie Harper Goldschmidt Trout Bogarts JRam KMarte JDM Machado the list goes on
As in most sports the top top tier will still be underpayed a bit if your able to look at it relatively ; It’s the fringe quasi star players (w good agents) you best watch out for in the market (Seager Lindor Bauer etc ) When you mash it all up you gotta pretty good flowing free market on your hands for teams to sift thru ….Saying your sitting the whole thing out is just nonsense if you have the means
All anyone who calls signings “overpays” is actually saying is the team that signs the player has overpaid. By definition virtually every free agent signing is an “overpay” because the team that signed the player was willing to pay more for him than any other team. Not a logic that seems to work in the economics of anything but baseball contracts, for some reason. I don’t think it works for baseball, either. If a team wants that guy, they have to pay that guy, knowing that the out years of the contract might be a write-off.
@Trillionaire HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA Get a grip
This the Irony Police. Feet back and spread ’em!
Too bad the mayor of Anaheim blew the stadium renovation project, they most likely would’ve had more money to throw into the payroll with the extra funds it seemingly would’ve generated
For me, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit that Ohtani could be traded this deadline, if not, this offseason. I mean from one perspective, when you look at the players that they already signed, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon for example, they’re already signed to multi-year deals where they’re getting around $30-35 million a year where as Ohtani is allegedly asking for around $45 million a year, so the only way for the Halos to extend him would probably have to get rid of some of those contracts which is likely not gonna happen with their commitments to the Angels entire and that not everyone is gonna wanna take on those salaries. And that’s not to mention who else could be in line for extensions (Walsh, Marsh, Detmers, Ward, etc.), so due to the limited cap space they have, an extension would be out the window unless they could find a way to alleviate some of those “heavy loads”.
This brings me to the trade market. If Ohtani were to be made available, there would be no doubt every team would want him. But in order to find a match for him, we must consider a few things first:
1.) He would likely want to go to a contender
2.) He would need to immediately fit into a team from both the hitting and pitching side of the game.
3.) They must have the money to sign him to an extension.
4.) They must have the prospects and farm system to make a trade for him.
With that said, I believe the team that would fit all for requirements would have to be the Toronto Blue Jays. Now before you all come at with pitchforks, torches, and “You’re biased!” signs like that, hear me out. 1.) Toronto is already contending for the AL East title, and are likely going to contend for many years to come, 2.) Due to Toronto’s need for a left-handed power bat and a new need for starting pitching (Hyun-jin Ryu is out for the season, and possibly for 2024 if he gets TJS), he would immediately fit right in with both sides of the ball. 3.) Due to the signings of Kevin Gausman, George Springer, and others, the Jays have shown that they do have the money to spend, the only catch is that if they do sign Ohtani to an extension, how will they do the same to Vladdy, Bo, and the others? (“Wink-wink, nudge-nudge”). 4.) They got the prospects and farm system to make a trade happen. According to MLB pipeline, Toronto currently has 4 prospects in the Top 100 (one of which is a left-hander, BTW), and since the Angels have nobody on that list, a trade with the Blue Jays would really help in the long run.
Any trade for Ohtani would take more than prospects. Prospect rankings are irrelevant because they rarley translate to a top tier MLB player. It would take a top tier MLB pitcher and a top tier MLB position player plus a prospect or 2 in my opinion. Plus Ohtani would have to want to go to whatever team is being considered. That’s a lot of ifs. For better or for worse, I think we have him until he hits the market. He’s an awesome player and I’d like to see him stay but not for 45m a year…not even close.
Hypothetical offer: If S.D. Gm Preller calls and offers SS C.J. Abrams (top prospect) and SP Mackenzie Gore (top young MLB SP) do you accept or hang up??
Also, Ohtani doesn’t have no trade clause so I don’t think he would “have to want to go to whatever team…”
The main obstacle for any contender in adding Ohtani to their roster is he will not fit smoothly into their 5 man rotation. To keep him on his 6-day pattern, you have to change the habits of the other starters who are in a rhythm. It would not be smart to mess with 4 pitchers routines to add that extra starter. Better to find a conventional starter, who won’t cost as much in trade, and keep the current four running smoothly.
The St. Louis Cardinals have all of the categories you mentioned as a prerequisite of trading for Ohtani !!!
With Ohtani’s pitching and hitting skills—- Along with 3 current All-Stars, 5 Golden Gloves playing behind him—- plus a solid, versital group of young talent already on their 40 man roster.
Even this season— with Ohtani— would give the Cardinals the edge they need to win the National League Championship In 2022.
Supposedly, if San Diego had the DH, he would have likely signed with them originally.
My guess is NYY or LAD for Shohei
Angels pitch: we can’t pay you the most or offer winning, but we hope you stay.
Signs with Mets to replace deGrom
I admit I have been puffing on some good stuff (no really, I’m a bit stoned) but given his age, if he is looking for the length of contract most ball players want, is Ohtani looking for something like 7 years $308 million or more?
I just can’t see tying that much money up for that long for one player who has played one full season. Maybe Ohtani emphasizing record setting AAV means he doesn’t expect something like seven years?
Cubs if he doesn’t re up with The Angels. He and Suzuki would rule the north side and still finish 3rd to to Milwaukee and St. Louis and 2nd in Chicago. lol
You would think Arte has had enough of the albatros contract but you never know. lom
Ohtani, value is as a two way player. Looking at 40 million a year, to resign him. He isn’t worth that as a hitter alone. He is one arm injury away from never pitching again. Package him with Rendon and get what you can this off-season. A team like the Mets, would most likely take Rendon, to give up less to get Ohtani. Or the Phillies. Or to that other team that plays up the I5, and take Bellinger in return.
I doubt Arte makes a trade with the Dodgers, he nixed a good trade a few years ago. He couldn’t stand seeing Ohtani in Dodger Blue!
I’d like to say the Angels should really trade him while his value is high enough, however, I don’t see that happening. He definitely has value as a two-way player but if somehow, he can’t do one of them, he still provides significant value as doing only one. I’d say there is more value in his bat through, as opposed to his arm so he should be paid well, when he reaches FA.
The problem with that kind of money is eventually we would be paying 45m as year to a DH who might be able to play right field ocassionally.
Most players tend to drop off between ages 32-35 with rare exceptions being valuable through age 36 and absolutely rarest of the rare being genuinely valuable through age 40 or more, but most are burnt toast by about 35 years old.
By this logic, with 1 year left of arbitration and free agency on the near horizon going into his age 29 season and being severely underpaid thus far, I’d offer Ohtani 1 year/$30M or 5 years/$230M w/ separate $10M and $15M buyouts on separate $35M and $50M vesting options which can be triggered based on innings pitched and plate appearances, separately and combined depending on thresholds met and how Ohtani is utilized going forward.
So a 5 years/$240M minimum guarantee, up to 5 years/$245M w/ options that can take it to 6 years/$265M or 6 years/$280M.
Actually most players begin falling off significantly before even turning 30. Mind boggling that there’s still the widespread assumption that a player’s prime will typically last into the early 30s. Prime years are almost always over before 30.
Personally, I wouldn’t go over 6 years on him without vesting options clauses for innings pitched, and abs..I’m sure someone will bite and give him 8-10yrs guaranteed, but that’d be a hard no from me..
only a morono run team would be looking at the remaining time of his contract and hoping he has a down year!
If they keep him at $40 mil a year, they will never be able to upgrade their pitching and will continue to fail with 2 of the best and most expensive players in the league. Angels should trade him for a haul at the deadline!
Yes. I’d trade him too. That’s me. Why? Since Ohtani has been an Angel, they have yet to have a winning season. Angels need a rebuild. If the Angels are more about entertainment value than winning, give him the money. Even with a losing record the Angels pull in 30k plus fans per game with him in uniform. But at Scherzer money? Don’t think so! Max is a winner (2019 WS Champ) and entertainer.
The appeal of the Angels for Ohtani was the fact that they had Trout and played in the AL so he could DH. Now that the NL has the DH the entire league is open to him and if his preference is to stay in Southern California than probably get used to picturing him in Dodger blue…
No problem, this is simple. The Angels can extend him if they chose to this off-season. It just depends if Arte wants to up payroll to compete to around $240m. They can afford that I’d think.
Simple!! Lol
Arte is paying $188m payroll in 2022 (highest in team history) what makes you think Arte will increase payroll to $240m range in 2023??
Keep in mind he was also one of 3-4 owners that DIDN’T want the luxury tax increased.
That’s Artie being Artie!!
That’s Artie being Artie!!!
The (then) nearly 30 year old Ohtani will go to the team that offers him the most money- simple as that. And he won’t be remotely worth it.