This week's mailbag gets into the lingering free agencies of Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Michael Kopech, multiple White Sox questions, a look at the Mets' rotation, and much more.
Marshal asks:
Why do we think Giolito and Littell have yet to sign? Most other FA left have large red flags either in past performance or injuries. These two are a clear cut above the rest (with the exception of Scherzer who reportedly is being picky about which team). Is it that they are being picky about what team, or are they holding out for bigger money? Teams like the Braves, Angels, A's and more could easily fit these guys into the middle/back of their rotation and yet they all seem unwilling to make a move for these two. Is it related to the TV deals collapsing?
Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there's a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.
In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery. He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.
A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi. He'd accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season. We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range. Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn't able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.
We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th. When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn't mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow. That injury ended Giolito's season on September 23rd; he wasn't able to make it back for the postseason. The righty professed full health in November. So why is he still unsigned?
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“Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there’s a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.”
True that, but a lot of folks that have already signed have already learned that too. If you go back and look at the projections, even on this site, and what ultimately happened, a lot of guys got a wake up call versus the agents’ quotes expectations.
Even though the RSN fiasco has a lot to do with it outside 10 or so teams with big local TV deals, I think a lot of teams are finally waking up on these ridiculously long deals.
Reds – I agree, but Giolito was never going to get a long deal. I always believed he’d get only one guaranteed year to prove he can stay healthy.
With Littell it’s just the usual teams ignoring his results and focusing on the huge drop in K%.
Fever – Littell not being signed surprises me, to be honest. Dude is an innings eater who has been pretty consistent. A lot of teams could use a starter like that.
Kopech is a nice power arm for any bullpen. The only question with him is: can he actually stay healthy? He’s definitely worth a minor league contract for someone. Shutdown bullpen piece for a contender.
Cap – Kopech is very similar to Graterol, both power arms who can’t stay healthy. The price you often pay for being a power arm.
imo, your analysis of the Mets rotation is pretty spot on. Six man rotation with the vets plus McLean, Tong and Scott waiting as reinforcements. With guys like Senga and Manaea, there will be injuries, so Scott and Tong will get a shot at some point. You always have the flexibility of moving Holmes to the bullpen if Scott or Tong is crushing it in AAA.
I think the analysis underrates the upside though. Senga and manaea have shown recently they can be legitimate number 2 sp types when healthy. They are far from back end sp normally.
I can’t see a lot of teams being interested in a l/t deal with a pitcher that finished the year on the IL with elbow issues.
Don’t trade any of the Mets starters, because you know there will always be injuries. I think Christian Scott could be the dark horse for this rotation
Why won’t anyone take a chance on Trevor Bauer?
He’s just not as good anymore….
Maybe he should be a Youtuber? He already makes shorts.
Because he is terrible and couldn’t even pitch well enough to stay in the NPB. There’s no mincing words. He sucks. Bauer supporters have to be the weirdest fans in baseball.
Maybe because he hates the Astros and they also hate the Astros?
They’re not baseball fans, they’re culture warriors.
To add to his lack of performance over the last few years (he had a 4.51 ERA last year in the NPB), he is not a sought after commodity in overseas leagues either, it would seem. “Free agent starting pitcher Trevor Bauer is not currently pursuing a new contract in Nippon Professional Baseball, according to agent Rachel Luba. While Luba framed the decision as Bauer’s choice, claiming that NPB teams asked to be notified if his plans changed, an article from ChosunBiz seems to indicate that teams aren’t very interested in bringing him back.”
Teams aren’t taking a chance on Trevor Bauer because there are thousands of other guys that are as good if not better than him that don’t have the baggage or, to be frank, the ego.
Teams aren’t taking a chance on Trevor Bauer because there are thousands of other guys that are as good if not better than him that don’t have the baggage or, to be frank, the ego.
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From a business perspective, I have no doubt that you are right.
From a societal perspective, it’s bad for everyone when a blackmailer wins.
Sure.
I will say he didn’t help his case by not particularly endearing himself to fans. Wasn’t he the guy that refused to sign anything but a one year deal? I know he said that he supposedly didn’t do that because of a bet he made with a friend who he said could shoot him in the groin with a paintball gun if he signed a multiyear deal, but regardless of the reason, that essentially put him in a position to never build any sort of fan loyalty for himself.
I don’t see him as much of a victim for the circumstances that he’s put himself in.
He is a former cy young winner, I know he had a rough year in Japan, last year, just see what he can do. He even said a team can release him after a weak if they do not see him helping, but just give him a chance.
He is better than the free agent pitchers who were already signed, that got contracts way bigger than their value is. He even mentioned, he would sign for the minimum.
It is not fair, he and Jon Gruden get blackballed, yet a certain football player, with many sledged accusations, gets to play and is making way more than he is worth.
Agreed, Nic.
Dustin May 1/13 with STL. Bauer is still worth ATLEAST that and would play for less. Blackballed 100%. Maybe he’s cocky, maybe he’s expressive, maybe he’s alittle out there. But seeing those texts between the “victim” and her friends discussing how much money they were gonna get out of him was sickening. The fake black eye…sickening. Yet..guilty until proven innocent in the court of public opinion. Disgusting.
Dustin May is one of the biggest overpays of the entire offseason.
She was obviously a female in distress who needed counseling and what have you, mentally disturbed; Bauer should have passed , he was the big boy with the major league contract who should have just went to his hotel room and gone to sleep.
How do you know that she counseling. She set him up, and then ruined him when he wouldn’t pay off. Morality aside, her plan was solid. Most players would’ve given her a couple of $100 thousand to go away.
They used each other Joe. But he didn’t even have to go down that aisle. Bauer has the morals of an alley cat and couldn’t help himself.
Bauer is 35 and struggled against lesser competition last year, even without being a pariah father time may be catching up to him. It’s time to let go of the idea of Bauer making an MLB comeback, it’s just as unlikely not to happen as Kaepernick ever playing in the NFL again
To address your points in order:
-He won the Cy Young SIX YEARS AGO in a 60 game season. It has no bearing on 2026.
-He didn’t have a ‘rough year in Japan’. He had a horrible year that was so bad that he pitched his way out of the entire league.
-He is not better than free agent pitchers who have already signed. Anthony Kay pitched on the same team as Bauer last year in NPB. He had an ERA that was *two and a half runs lower than Bauer’s* and he was only able to secure an AAV of $5 million.
-‘It’s not fair’, according to whom? The NFL is a completely different league that has zero bearing on baseball. Should Bauer get an opportunity over more deserving pitchers? Why? Wouldn’t that be unfair to them?
Bauer is completely washed. His career is done, get over it. Notice that I have not even mentioned his numerous off-the-field issues. No team is giving him a shot and it’s because he’s not good enough to warrant the rest of the package.
2023 season in Japan: 10–4 record, 2.76 ERA, and 130 strikeouts in 19 games (130.2 innings). He was named a 2023 All-Star and June MVP.
2024 season in Mexico: 10–0 record, a 2.48 ERA, and a league-leading 120 strikeouts in 83.1 innings. He set a new single-game record with 19 strikeouts on June 21, 2024, and was named the 2024 LMB Pitcher of the Year.
2025 in Japan: Trevor Bauer struggled, finishing the season with a 4.51 ERA across 21 games. He experienced a mid-season slump, losing four straight decisions with 19 runs allowed in 20⅓ innings around June.
Notice how you only talk about 2025 and the struggles he ran into in June that bloated his stats. No mention of his terrific 2023 and 2024 seasons. You mention Anthony Kay as a comparison but you don’t mention Kay doesn’t have half the track record of Bauer. Including the “Cy Young SIX YEARS AGO..”. You are just weaponizing incompetence at this point. His career is not over. He is more than worthy of an MLB contract, if not because of his fantastic track record, but also because of how bad he was blackballed. Lied about. Name dragged through the mud. Assumed guilty until proven innocent. Then when the “victim” was exposed for being a lying money seeking rat, he was still blackballed.
I think you believe most of what I’m saying. I think your feelings are just hurt because you fell into the whole “believe all women” trope, you were wrong like most of the people on these threads because of it, now you’re a bitter hater, who won’t admit he was wrong. And that’s okay, rct.
If the same thing happened to you, I’d believe you were innocent until proven guilty and I’d be lobbying for your job to hire you back immediately. Even if you weren’t exactly the same employee you were 6 years ago.
I am in Chicago, and am a White Sox Fan, I would rather have him than Jordan Hicks or Eric Fedde.
Re: Benintendi and Houston
I have to believe that if Houston wanted Benintendi that the White Sox would do what it takes to make that deal happen. He’s completely useless for the Sox.
Why in the world would we want Andrew Benintendi? He’s too expensive for the cheap Jim Crane.
I’m keeping the Nutter Butter, in that trade, tStS