This week's mailbag gets into the lingering free agencies of Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Michael Kopech, multiple White Sox questions, a look at the Mets' rotation, and much more.
Marshal asks:
Why do we think Giolito and Littell have yet to sign? Most other FA left have large red flags either in past performance or injuries. These two are a clear cut above the rest (with the exception of Scherzer who reportedly is being picky about which team). Is it that they are being picky about what team, or are they holding out for bigger money? Teams like the Braves, Angels, A's and more could easily fit these guys into the middle/back of their rotation and yet they all seem unwilling to make a move for these two. Is it related to the TV deals collapsing?
Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there's a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.
In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery. He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.
A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi. He'd accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season. We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range. Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn't able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.
We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th. When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn't mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow. That injury ended Giolito's season on September 23rd; he wasn't able to make it back for the postseason. The righty professed full health in November. So why is he still unsigned?
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“Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there’s a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.”
True that, but a lot of folks that have already signed have already learned that too. If you go back and look at the projections, even on this site, and what ultimately happened, a lot of guys got a wake up call versus the agents’ quotes expectations.
Even though the RSN fiasco has a lot to do with it outside 10 or so teams with big local TV deals, I think a lot of teams are finally waking up on these ridiculously long deals.
Reds – I agree, but Giolito was never going to get a long deal. I always believed he’d get only one guaranteed year to prove he can stay healthy.
With Littell it’s just the usual teams ignoring his results and focusing on the huge drop in K%.
imo, your analysis of the Mets rotation is pretty spot on. Six man rotation with the vets plus McLean, Tong and Scott waiting as reinforcements. With guys like Senga and Manaea, there will be injuries, so Scott and Tong will get a shot at some point. You always have the flexibility of moving Holmes to the bullpen if Scott or Tong is crushing it in AAA.
I can’t see a lot of teams being interested in a l/t deal with a pitcher that finished the year on the IL with elbow issues.